First up, note that the post below this one covers a new Victorian state poll from RedBridge Group. On to the latest from the federal campaign:
• Paul Sakkal of Nine Newspapers reports Labor is experiencing a surge of donations both from wealthy backers hoping to court favour with the party now favoured to win, and from small donors galvanised by hostility to Donald Trump.
• Ellen Ransley of The Nightly reports Labor is dedicating an extra $130,000 to campaigning in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson after its research suggested the race there was “closer than originally thought”. As with the last report broaching the possibility, it also notes that “LNP insiders insist they aren’t worried about the seat”.
• Local news site Fremantle Shipping News reports, without going into much detail, that independent hopeful Kate Hulett has successfully renounced her British citizenship and will be able to proceed as planned with her run for the federal seat of Fremantle. Hulett came within 424 votes of unseating state government minister Simone McGurk in the state seat of Fremantle last month. Last week she related on her podcast that she had been making multiple representations to British parliamentarians and to the Home Office and High Commission in an effort to get the matter resolved in time.
• Jeremy Neal, Liberal National Party candidate from the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, is distancing himself from “poorly worded” social media posts from between 2020 and 2022 in which he railed against COVID restrictions and vaccines, called for the ABC to be defunded, and expressed more enthusiasm for Donald Trump than is now considered politic. Labor is hoping the retirement of veteran incumbent Warren Entsch will give it a shot of overhauling the seat’s 3.4% margin.
• The Financial Review reports a uComms poll for Climate 200 has Allegra Spender, teal incumbent candidate for Wentworth, leading Liberal challenger Ro Knox 58-42 in Wentworth. The primary votes have Spender on 32.9%, Knox on 32.5% and Labor candidate Savanna Peake on 12.2%, with “nearly 7%” undecided. The report says the poll had a sample of 1015 but does not specify field work dates.
• The Australian reports a poll of Chris Bowen’s western Sydney seat of McMahon by Compass has independent Matt Camenzuli on 41%, the Liberals on 20% and Bowen on just 19%, as compared with 48.0% in 2022. Labor sources are said to be “dismissive”, and expect Camenzuli to come third. Camenzuli is an IT entrepreneur and former conservative Liberal activist who took Scott Morrison and others to court in 2022 after the party’s national executive took control of the federal preselection process. Compass is chiefly noted for finding strong support for conservative culture war positions for suitably disposed clients. The only voting intention poll I know it to have conducted was in North Sydney during the 2022 campaign, which found the eventual winner, teal independent Kylea Tink, running third on 13.6%, or barely more than half her actual result of 25.2%. The report does not identify who commissioned the poll, which was conducted by MMS and SMS from a sample of 1003 on dates unspecified, but I think I can guess.
Mostly Interested,
I posted a story the other day where Jacqui Lambie was going on about putting a tent roof on a stadium in Launceston! I thought that was an ‘interesting’ subject to campaign on.
Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton are promising big business they will rebuff any push by Donald Trump for nations to take a tougher economic approach to Beijing, as the latest salvo in the White House’s trade war was expected to halve China’s GDP and push it into dumping goods that cannot be sold into America.
As the President tried to shake off suggestions his global round of tariffs against the US’s allies had backfired and said the nation “had to take the medicine” of his radical rewriting of international trade, Mr Trump said he was sure Chinese President Xi Jinping would do a deal with him to stop the trade war continuing. “President Xi is one of the smartest people in the world and I don’t think he will allow (escalation) to happen,” Mr Trump said in the Oval Office. “We are very powerful. We have weaponry … but I think President Xi is a man who knows exactly what has to be done. I think he’s going to want to do a deal. There will be a telephone call and we’ll be off to the races.”
China’s leadership was reportedly gathering late on Thursday for a meeting to discuss economic stimulus measures in response to a tariff hit that analysts have estimated could slow the country’s GDP growth rate by as much as 2.5 per cent. But Mr Xi showed no sign of backing down, with Chinese government mouthpieces on Thursday quoting Mao Zedong as they declared China would “never yield”.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/anthony-albanese-and-peter-dutton-wont-follow-donald-trumps-tough-trade-talk-on-china/news-story/1cda0299d36661857ce6941f62a5dcee?amp
Andrew_Earlwood honestly I think you might be correct I think labour will lose some seats but not a lot like maybe two or three some will go back to the liberals some will go back to the greens green hell I would not be surprised if the liberals can’t get back independence seats s*** I would not be surprised of late the get some seats in Brisbane off the greens but I don’t think liberals unless something really bad happens to labour is going to even be able to do minority honestly I thought the best chance the liberals have was a minority government
C@tmomma who do you think’s gonna win this election now honestly what I said to n88 earlier this year I was like both major parties ain’t gonna be happy on election night now I’m going no only one’s going to be happy on election night
Trent honestly I don’t know why the liberals put all their hopes into Victoria especially how Pete is running his campaign
William Bowe @ #500 Thursday, April 10th, 2025 – 8:25 pm
That’s honestly quite pathetic, and I hope the reasons why get raked up in the upcoming inquiry.
I mean I know it’s a new system and all, but being unable to determine the result after a full month in this day and age isn’t good enough, especially with such low amounts of public communication.
C@t, there’s logic in Lambie’s play for the stadium to be in Launceston.
She’s from the north, which is the AFL fandom heartland. York Stadium in Launceston is one of AFL’s best fields already; one of Hawthorn’s “home” bases. The proposed new stadium in Hobart is a four hour drive each way from Burnie – her home town. The proposed new stadium will bankrupt the state – a widely held view in the north. Northeners do not want a stadium in Hobart.
I suspect that she will be re-elected, but I’m only guessing.
frednk says:
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 7:12 pm
If your interested in AUKUS the second panel will be of interest:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LtXSr0QsME
It was good in that both sides were put.
We have spent a lot of money not building subs.
Apparently, S&P futures Dow Jones Futures and Nasdaq are down.
——————————
Insiders collecting their profits?
Tasmanian 2022 senate primaries:
Lib 2.241 Quotas
ALP 1.893
Green 1.084
Jacqui Lambie Network 0.605
ON 0.271
LCP 0.212
LDP 0.136
UAP 0.114
Local Party 0.101
(source: Kevin Bonham)
Paul Krugnam’s latest opinion of Trump… he says it’s not over…
Anyone sounding the all-clear on tariffs, or Trump economic policy in general, should be kept away from sharp objects and banned from operating heavy machinery. We’re in a hardly better place than we were before Donald Trump announced a tariff pause (in a Truth Social post, of course.) In fact, we may be in a worse place.
Bullies are weak
The story of the tariffs so far — at least as other countries will see it — is that Trump announced extreme policies, insisted that he would persist with those policies no matter what, then beat an ignominious retreat. In other words, Trump is a typical bully, full of swagger and tough talk, who runs away at the first sign of adversity.
On tariffs, Trump’s cowardice and weakness may be a good thing. But what about everything else?
citizensays:
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 8:17 pm
paul A says:
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 7:48 pm
…Looking like a minority ALP gov’t to me! Your “Albo” has got to find seats to pick up somewhere.
Perhaps the A.C.T?
That might be a bit difficult. All three ACT Reps seats are Labor …….
——
Geez, you’re bright, citizen?
If there are enough insiders trading, maybe we look to the markets to see what statements Trump will make next – rather than the other way round.
Hmm, Tasmanians gave JLN a really good shot with 3 seats in the 35 seat state lower house. She couldn’t even keep them together for 1 year. I think she’s burnt that critical percent or two that creeps her over the line in the Senate.
But northerners vote for her, who understands those northerners anyway. I like big butts I cannot lie, wait did I just channel sir mix a lot?
https://youtu.be/X53ZSxkQ3Ho?feature=shared
Question earlier re maximum penalty for obtain financial advantage for oneself or another. Section 82 of the Crimes Act Victoria- level 5 penalty ie 10 years.
The Liberal candidate was penalised by having to repay the sum obtained and some monetary penalty. However it was without a conviction being recorded and no jail time. Presumably it was sort of regarded as being a “victimless” crime – (except for the taxpayers).
So, he could be a candidate and an an MP because he has no conviction recorded.
Great vetting by Viclib. Well done
Luigi – my guess is Pauline Hanson’s daughter will replace Lambie in the Senate in Tas.
* 2 LNP
* 2 ALP
* 1 GREEN
* 1 Pauline’s daughter (whatever her name is)
Lambie has proven herself as a Green patsy (she vote’s with them all the time). She’s gone.
Lambie probably blundered with parting ways with her chief of staff, Dolly Norman.
Labor minimum 79 seats.
The electorate is going to whack Dutton and the LNP with a protest vote of intent, a warning to them to never again contemplate the attempted trumping of our great land and its universally adored institutions.
It’s going to be bad on election night at the centre stage of the Logan superdome that will serve as Dutton election night HQ.
Are PBer’s just trying to impress the man with the big stick by trying to copy his cautious and conservative assessments of Labor’s chances ?.
I dint think man with big stick will be impressed but rather disappointed in them for not being able to put together some original thought and contributions.
The internal week by week tracking data is all saying the same thing. Labor 79 seats at least. Bennelong and Gilmore to hold. Sturt a pick up. Bowen to survive, Labor to win back Fowler.
I could go on and on. If you can see through Leftie brawler’s at times good natured ribbing and maturity if a 10 year old you’ll soon find the truth.
Even Dickson could go up in flames. If that comes to be I suspect the LNP will parachute in Bruce Pascoe to Dickson as the 2028 candidate to restore core themes and principles like credibility, truth telling, honesty, transparency, legitimacy and integrity to the LNP brand .
Mavis @ #470 Thursday, April 10th, 2025 – 7:23 pm
Mavis,
Yes, it’s something I noticed when I went to the West Coast of the US and was driving around Redmond, Washington State, which is where the headquarters of Microsoft is located. I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw a Cricket Supplies shop!
Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures down about 1%, NASDAQ down 1.5%.
Aussie SPI down about 1.5%.
For reference, one of my favourite running jokes on Mad as Hell was Lambie saying something daft and Shaun doing a Frank Underwood and do an aside to the camera while Dolly looks on vacantly in the background.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZignPUwvvPU
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has lashed all sides of politics in an interview on ABC’s 7.30 program. The controversial senator accused both sides of politics of stealing her policy ideas for their own gain and detailed what she said are fractured relationships on all sides.
Among those claims, that she has not met with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in a long time, that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is an “arrogant” leader and that she is a far better right-wing option than Clive Palmer or anyone who represents him.
When asked about being able to help Mr Dutton, Senator Hanson intimated she already had, due to him taking her fuel excise policy and running with it this election.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-10/pauline-hanson-policy-credit-albanese-arrogant-palmer-poor/105162774
Hadn’t thought about PHON picking up that 6th Tas Senate seat. Probably on balance JLN will get it but I’ll be trumpeting my prediction if it comes true that she loses it.
Quentin Rountree @ #504 Thursday, April 10th, 2025 – 8:31 pm
I’m going to go with the vibe by election day. The team that hasn’t given people the ick by then will win. Right now it’s looking like Labor.
Leftie Brawler,
You’ve moved from 83 seats to 79 seats.
Saw your ramblings the other night too, demanding the respect of WB or whatever it was you were rambling on about.
You’re a joke, mate.
paul Asays:
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 8:59 pm
Leftie Brawler,
You’ve moved from 83 seats to 79 seats.
======================================================
He wrote minimum 79 seats. 83 seats as a prediction is still consistent with that statement.
Paul A I’m glad I’ve gotten to you.
The European Union is putting countermeasures against US tariffs on hold for 90 days.
So…. I’m Posting a Nate silver article. I’m posting it because of how he illustrates that the market can tell us what something will do to Main Street. That falls and gains in the market can have real world, Main Street consequences – or at least predict it. And boy, he doesn’t hold back on the Silicon Valley fools that supported Trump.
Noting he wrote this before the tariff backdown.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/wall-street-thinks-trumps-tariffs
And where Entropy (even though you are one of the more clueless posters on politics here)…..
where exactly do you think your ALP is going to pick up seats to maintain majority.
* Sturt (OK, I’ll give you that). What next?
* Bullwinkel? Did you see the Lib swings in the outer eastern suburbs of Perth, or do you just drop by for a comment-fart every so often.
* Leichhardt – you think the ALP is in with a chance. Check the state Labor vote there in the last election before “tapping” out a response.
You have less of a clue on politics than leftie.
Thanks entropy. I’m glad I swapped you out for Nath/paul A hole
I’d much dinewith pied piper before those two. Infact piped piper’s prose and style has a nice rhythm to it. He appears to be fairly quick witted and I’ve never once seen him engage in petty domestic with a fellow PBer.
I feel bad for all the misunderstandings we’ve had ever since you arrived onto the scene. I shouldn’t be disparaging the next generation that are interested in the political process and lay of the lands.
Bush fire bill and I won’t be around for ever. Entropy id like to see you pick up the eloquent awesomeness flame that bush fire bill and I had bequeathed to PB over the years.
Peter Dutton was allegedly the target of a Brisbane private school student charged with buying ingredients to make bombs and testing “homemade explosives” in preparation to launch a terrorist attack. The 16-year-old, who cannot be named for legal reasons, was arrested and charged last August after a joint counter-terrorism investigation by federal and Queensland police.
Sources have told The Australian that the teenager was allegedly planning to attack the federal Opposition Leader at his home on an acreage, north of Brisbane. The alleged plot, according to the sources familiar with the investigation, involved the use of a drone.
Queensland and federal police declined to comment about their investigation or the evidence against the teenager, who on Thursday was committed to stand trial on a single charge relating to the alleged plot.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/brisbane-private-school-student-16-to-face-trial-for-allegedly-planning-terror-bomb-attack/news-story/b05ffc4733e5ed6659bc5c6d9eaf86e7?amp
My more specific prediction for Victoria is that the Liberals will gain either 2 or 3 out of McEwen, Aston and Chisholm. If polling continues to trend in Labor’s direction though, they might hold onto 2 of them. I’d pick Aston as most likely to fall.
I predict the Greens will probably gain 1 out of Wills or Macnamara. I rate both as 50/50 tossups so could be either (or none, or both), but my guess is that 1 of them will flip and the other with narrowly hold. Both could still be too close to call until postal votes are counted.
paul Asays:
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 9:11 pm
And where Entropy (even though you are one of the more clueless posters on politics here)…..
=================================================
I was merely correcting your misunderstanding . If someone writes a minimum of 79 seats, they are predicting that as their lower range value and not their likely value. Additionally, regarding comprehension failures, it was LB’s prediction, not mine. LB has access to up-to-date polling data that I do not. Therefore, I’m not in a position to make the sort of seat prediction that LB can.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/04/legislative-council-2025-nelson.html
Legislative Council 2025: Nelson
(Pembroke and Montgomery to follow in next week or two)
(This is for Tasmanian state upper house – elections were bumped by three weeks to avoid federal)
Mostly Interested,
Jacqui attacked Ms Yassmin Abdel-Magied back in 2017 over a comment regarding Anzac Day, and Jacqui uses it to “rile” up the right wing vote in Tassie with the message “I’m for you”. Essentially, the purpose she serves(d), is to take a conservative Senate seat, off the Conservatives.
She then votes with the Greens & Labor most of the time. She’s an ex-Lib, who hates the Libs.
As a result, she was allowed to get away with her attack on Abdel-Magied.
Her management skills with the Tasmanian JLN Parliamentarians is/was appaling, and most have left her “network”, as has Tammy Tyrrell.
Right wing Conservatives have worked out that she is not “really for them”. She’ll probably lose her seat as a result, and they’ll vote for the real deal, being Pauline Hanson’s daughter. That fringe “right” vote won’t go back to the Libs, it will be transferred straight from Lambie to Hanson.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 8:50 pm
Mavis @ #470 Thursday, April 10th, 2025 – 7:23 pm
Great to see that cricket is included in the Olympic games in LA in ’28. The last time it got a guernsey was in the 1900 Paris Olympics. I guess the Olympic Committee took into account the massive following cricket has in India.
Mavis,
Yes, it’s something I noticed when I went to the West Coast of the US and was driving around Redmond, Washington State, which is where the headquarters of Microsoft is located. I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw a Cricket Supplies shop!
————————————-
And what is the fastest growing sport in terms of participation in Canada? You guessed it: Cricket.
The fringe right vote in Tassie would appear to only account for a fraction of Lambie’s support base, Paul the A.
Locals would however be in a better position to comment on the finer details than either you or me. Perhaps meher or KB if he is around might venture an opinion.
If the ALP gains a seat/seats from the lib/nats, they could gain:
Menzies
Deakin
Sturt
Moore
Casey
Bass
Also possible they could gain Monash, although I think I read something suggesting otherwise.
I’d say the growing number of the Indian diaspora living in North America would go a long way to explain the growth of cricket there.
US markets simply overshot last night. There is of course going to be a drop off tonight as people take a more sober look at the current circumstances.
Entropy have you joined a branch in Melbourne ? If not happy to arrange an introduction for you with one of the VIC state corridor crawlers.
Potentially il be in Melbourne for a conference in late July. I went to the one last year and it was at this huge, dated corporate motel in Preston.
There was also an awesome pro-Labor dive bar in the surrounds that had all these awesome retro campaign posters from the 60s-70s like ‘liberal party poison’ , ‘it’s time’ , ‘swing to Labor’ etc.
For the three nights we frequented this bar the elderly gentleman owner was very kind to a visiting delegation of comrades north of the Norse and by the last might he insisted we not pay for a single more drink and also got us a free feed. Just wish I could remember the name of it. Someone should organise a PB melb meetup there
Andy big “E”.
Which 3 seats in Vic do you think are in strife for your lot?
Remember. Albo holds 77 nationally. A 3 seat loss in Vic puts him into minority.
If the Greens pick up either Wills or MacNamara – it’s an Albo-Greens gov’t coming up.
Bandt will be Kingmaker, or at least he’ll demand Ministries.
So which 3 seats in Vic are on your radar?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #540 Thursday, April 10th, 2025 – 9:34 pm
On the other hand, I think they’d be inclined to keep their heads down at the moment, considering the extraordinary amount of racist hatred they got at the start of the year from MAGA over the H1-B visa issue.
C@tmomma:
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 8:50 pm
[‘Mavis,
Yes, it’s something I noticed when I went to the West Coast of the US and was driving around Redmond, Washington State, which is where the headquarters of Microsoft is located. I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw a Cricket Supplies shop!’]
Cat, while that is surprising, in the 1930s cricket was quite popular in California, at least among mainly British expat actors. There was even a Hollywood Cricket Club. Americans eschewed cricket as they thought it was too elitist & English.
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/rewind-an-englishman-abroad-charles-aubrey-smith-and-the-story-of-hollywood-cc-784571
The tariff pause still leaves a 10% tariff in place for all states outside of China affected by Trump’s tariffs so while this was very much a retreat, it isn’t the more complete reversal that I know plenty of people initially thought it was from just seeing and hearing the headlines.
Arange – The ALP is not winning Monash. However, Monash does have a mess of a contest. Russell Broadbent is running as Independent after losing pre-selection for the Liberals. And a “Teal” type candidate in Deb Leonard who did alright last election ( and who used to be a half decent water skier a couple of decades ago). So it will be an odd 4 cornered contest.
Paul a the held 78 the Labour Party also they can have make a go to the teals they don’t have to go to the greens
It looks more and more like the action on the Bond market was the thing that caused the Tariff backflip yesterday.
“Kevin Hassett, director of the U.S. National Economic Council, said on “Squawk Box” that the volatility in the bond market was not a direct reason for the Trump tariff pause, but likely added “a little more urgency” to the decision.
“Everything was moving forward in an orderly fashion. There’s no doubt that the Treasury market yesterday made it so that the decision that, you know, it is about time to move was made with, I think, perhaps a little more urgency. But it was going to happen,” Hassett said.”
leftieBrawler says:
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 9:45 pm
“Entropy have you joined a branch in Melbourne ? If not happy to arrange an introduction for you with one of the VIC state corridor crawlers.
Potentially il be in Melbourne for a conference in late July. I went to the one last year and it was at this huge, dated corporate motel in Preston.
There was also an awesome pro-Labor dive bar in the surrounds that had all these awesome retro campaign posters from the 60s-70s like ‘liberal party poison’ , ‘it’s time’ , ‘swing to Labor’ etc.”
______
I know that place, it’s called the Raccoon Club. Unfortunately last time I was there (November) all those vintage ALP posters were gone. It felt more gentrified too, like most of Preston to be honest.