First up, note that the post below this one covers a new Victorian state poll from RedBridge Group. On to the latest from the federal campaign:
• Paul Sakkal of Nine Newspapers reports Labor is experiencing a surge of donations both from wealthy backers hoping to court favour with the party now favoured to win, and from small donors galvanised by hostility to Donald Trump.
• Ellen Ransley of The Nightly reports Labor is dedicating an extra $130,000 to campaigning in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson after its research suggested the race there was “closer than originally thought”. As with the last report broaching the possibility, it also notes that “LNP insiders insist they aren’t worried about the seat”.
• Local news site Fremantle Shipping News reports, without going into much detail, that independent hopeful Kate Hulett has successfully renounced her British citizenship and will be able to proceed as planned with her run for the federal seat of Fremantle. Hulett came within 424 votes of unseating state government minister Simone McGurk in the state seat of Fremantle last month. Last week she related on her podcast that she had been making multiple representations to British parliamentarians and to the Home Office and High Commission in an effort to get the matter resolved in time.
• Jeremy Neal, Liberal National Party candidate from the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, is distancing himself from “poorly worded” social media posts from between 2020 and 2022 in which he railed against COVID restrictions and vaccines, called for the ABC to be defunded, and expressed more enthusiasm for Donald Trump than is now considered politic. Labor is hoping the retirement of veteran incumbent Warren Entsch will give it a shot of overhauling the seat’s 3.4% margin.
• The Financial Review reports a uComms poll for Climate 200 has Allegra Spender, teal incumbent candidate for Wentworth, leading Liberal challenger Ro Knox 58-42 in Wentworth. The primary votes have Spender on 32.9%, Knox on 32.5% and Labor candidate Savanna Peake on 12.2%, with “nearly 7%” undecided. The report says the poll had a sample of 1015 but does not specify field work dates.
• The Australian reports a poll of Chris Bowen’s western Sydney seat of McMahon by Compass has independent Matt Camenzuli on 41%, the Liberals on 20% and Bowen on just 19%, as compared with 48.0% in 2022. Labor sources are said to be “dismissive”, and expect Camenzuli to come third. Camenzuli is an IT entrepreneur and former conservative Liberal activist who took Scott Morrison and others to court in 2022 after the party’s national executive took control of the federal preselection process. Compass is chiefly noted for finding strong support for conservative culture war positions for suitably disposed clients. The only voting intention poll I know it to have conducted was in North Sydney during the 2022 campaign, which found the eventual winner, teal independent Kylea Tink, running third on 13.6%, or barely more than half her actual result of 25.2%. The report does not identify who commissioned the poll, which was conducted by MMS and SMS from a sample of 1003 on dates unspecified, but I think I can guess.
We will now have a relief rally. Tariff cancelled for 90 days for all but China.
It was the penguins wot won it, I tells ya.
The pause announcement is ambiguous. It could be the 10% rate will not be paused but rates above 10% will be for all but China.
Both those seat polls William mentions above look like utter BS to me, the fact that the Murdoch papers are running with the dubious findings of that McMahon survey says it all about their usual anti-Labor bias.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/09/politics/election-security-systems-trump-invs/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc
Trump prepares to steal future elections.
Trump negotiated a deal with Trump.
Here’s your real news today: – more than 75 Countries have called the US to negotiate tariffs.
The Dow goes “Whooshka” up around 3,000 points. WOW, well played Donald, what a legend. Bad luck lefties, not your day, better luck next time.
The election is still there to be won. One more Whooshka to go on May 3, the icing on the cake!
Trump is all over the shop on tariffs like a madman’s breakfast. Or is that, all over the walls of the White House? 😐
Of course, Trump lapdog, Centre, wets himself with excitement at Trump’s manufactured stock market rally. Likely manufactured by Trump so that he and his brazen Robber Barons could make money out of it.
I’ll be over here waiting for Centre to fall flat on his face, again, when it all comes unglued in the markets in America because Trump can’t be trusted.
frednk,
Yes it seems as though Centre doesn’t understand the concept of an artificially-manufactured Relief Rally. He’s besides himself with excitement at the Greed Rally concocted by Trump. We’ll see how that goes.
One thing I will say is that the PM and the Treasurer look like the smart ones now for just sitting on the sidelines and not ‘getting on the phone to Trump’ and offering up something of Australia’s as they begged him for a deal, like Dutton was demanding he do. Well played those men.
Do yourselves a favour & listen to these two ladies.
https://youtu.be/ZSJI9ZLPsqc?si=0o2uyIv7_9A2UIuT
Centre is the sort of person easily impressed by someone shaking car keys in his face.
From ‘MY POLICIES WONT CHANGE’ to flip-flopping when the bond market showed signs of collapsing.
All so that the world would come and ‘kiss my ass’.
Will the US reputation survive this clown?
How to destroy the worlds leading economy through gross stupidity..
The U.S.-centric volatility comes on the heels of investors fleeing riskier assets globally in what some fear had parallels to an episode known as the “dash for cash” during the pandemic, when the Treasury market broke down. The recent moves have upended a longstanding relationship in which the U.S. government bond market serves as a safe harbor during times of stress.
Adding to Wednesday’s angst was the fact that the U.S. dollar, which is the world’s dominant currency and was largely expected to strengthen as Mr. Trump’s tariffs came into effect, had instead weakened. It shaved some of those losses after the administration’s announcement.
“The global safe-haven status is in question,” said Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “Disorderly moves have happened this week because there is no safe place to hide.”
…..
In remarks later that afternoon, Mr. Trump acknowledged that investors in the bond market had gotten “a little queasy” the night before.
“I was watching the bond market,” he said. “The bond market is very tricky, but if you look at it now, it’s beautiful.”
…..
The scope and scale of Wednesday’s moves have been significant enough to raise broader concerns about how foreign investors now perceive the United States in the face of Mr. Trump’s punishing tariffs. Some countries are seeking to negotiate deals with the United States. But China retaliated on Wednesday with an 84 percent levy on U.S. goods after Mr. Trump raised the tariff rate on Chinese goods to 104 percent.
“Optically, in some countries now you don’t want to show an overweight position, or maybe even an equal-weight position, in the U.S.,” said Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, an investment firm.
In a social media post on Wednesday, the former U.S. Treasury secretary Lawrence H. Summers said the broader sell-off suggested a “generalized aversion to US assets in global financial markets” and warned about the possibility of a “serious financial crisis wholly induced by U.S. government tariff policy.”
“We are being treated by global financial markets like a problematic emerging market,” he wrote.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/09/business/economy/bonds-tariffs-safe-haven.html
Oh ffs, this Potus and his clowns are a joke – they are spinning themselves dizzy. ‘This was the plan all along’? How does anyone fall for this crap? And there’s still a 10% tax on all goods imported from everywhere else.
And why would the market go ‘yay!’? It’s now plain as day that the Potus is utterly incompetent, reckless and worse, will backflip all over the shop like a deranged bull. How do you trade when you have nfi what he’ll do next bc He has nfi what he’ll do next.
Why would the rest of the globe feel they can now negotiate in good faith with this nutter after this? 90 days to negotiate trade deals with all those countries – and they now know they can’t trust the Potus nor rely on any consistency. I’d say they are better off not bothering. They have him over a barrel now. He gave them all the cards. His ambit claim bit him on the arse for all to see.
TK
Your summary is more colourful than the NYTimes, but the same sentiment. Nobody is going to trust the clown car, despite what they may say in public.
Trump could smell something & decided to change his nappy,it was full .. he blinked BIGGLY
Sportsbet this morning – Labor $1.26 Coalition $4.00.
And how has Polymarket reacted to the Treasurer’s debate and Trump’s latest idiocy?
Probabilty to win election
Labour (sic) – 76%
LNP – 23%
https://polymarket.com/event/australia-parliamentary-election-winner?tid=1744231366962
Probability of next Prime Minister
Albo – 74%
Dutton – 26%
https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-australia?tid=1744231524472
Dutton and Trump both backflipped this week
What’s in it for Australia to negotiate? It seems 10% is the floor. Trump needs the cash. He must raise taxes.
The world should keep calling his bluff – if the bond market and USD go south, he’ll cave again. Desperate Don.
If you listened to Trump at the NRRC dinner you must have a cast iron gut.
Biden, Biden, Biden silly name calling then onwards to Trump calling himself the greatest negotiator.
But worse than Trump are the applauding cheering sycophants in the audience.
It’s childish gibberish & yet they cheer..
Another podcast from my two favourites. They have the uncanny knack of classy swearing. lol
https://youtu.be/W4gUUTxJF5Q?si=Dnai7OVIjsLjbNiD
Of course, the tariffs battle has more to play, but ultimately Trump and Xi Jinping may make a deal. I think we need to move away from a green left-wing government.
* this could be a turning point in the election 😉
Chris Hayes on Bluesky
You set the house on fire, watched it burn, and then lost your nerve and put it out. You now have a partially burned house. Great job.
You’d almost think that the American tariff gymnastics are a grand scale stock market manipulation exercise. The ultimate insider trading scam.
Centre
Donald Trump is on the ballot.
Centre-bet is such a fool: he thinks it’s ‘lefties’ who are getting owned by Trump. In reality it’s ordinary – generally conservative – capitalist investors who are getting owned. Trump deliberately shorted the entire stock market, with his inner circle of reprobates THERE and given free rein to indulge in industrial scale insider trading.
I think the ‘Ghost of Hitch’ said it best in the comments section of the SMH this morning:
“ Have we ever seen a more blatant case of market manipulation? Those in his inner circle, who knew what he was about to make this announcement, stood to make a fortune.
We will probably never know who and how much.”
As for global trade and the world economy? Burn baby, burn.
Centre @ #584 Wednesday, April 9th, 2025 – 8:51 pm
Oooh! So powerful. So well reasoned and factually based.
I have always held the view Based on nil knowledge of the greenhouse effect, its physical cause, and its essential role in making the earth habitable at all. As I said, a pea-brain, with a pitifully low ability to analyse anything.
Jesus – the degree to which certain people will pretzel themselves to claim a win.
This only heightens instability and creates a cliff. And, no, this is not a turning point in the election.
Trump knows his plan was not going how he was told it would. He froze them because the bond market was tanking. Even the grifters and conmen in the administration who are cashing in on this chaos realise they’ve overdone it, it seems.
Dow up up 7.87%
Sp up 9.52%
Nasdaq up 12.16 %
75 countries lined up to do deals.
And best of all China still getting hammered by USA.
Geez wake up each day and thinks get better borders secure in USA,fentanyl crisis over,doge cutting waste,Dem rejects in gov positions booted,illegals being kicked out and jailed if murderers and rapists.DEI removed.Dems in a civil war.
Geez Nvidia shares up in one day 18.72%.
Did say buying opportunity late last week!
Labor on 19% in McMahon? Does not sound credible at all.
Trump is getting all the attention, surely making it almost impossible for the local Reactionaries to campaign.
So the demented orange menace has walked back the tariffs for 90 days
It is being called the biggest u turn in history.
The emperor has no clothes,
The plan by Trump was a disaster for the USA.
The sell off in security bonds was reason why he caved in.
What a traitorous piece of crap,
Still playing a dangerous game with China. They hold so much of the US debt
Good morning, all.
What a shitshow parody Sky managed to cook up last night. I assume that that will be the last time Labor will have anything to do with them. But you never know.
Bluey notes that in Roman Imperial times now was generally the stage at which the Praetorian Guard took matters into their own hands. Enough is enough already.
This is to announce that Bluey is giving up on humans for the next three days and will resume service on Sunday.
He wishes youse all happy tariffs in the interim.
Betfair just now. Lowest price so far for Labor.
Implied probability of win: 77.5%
Trump is certainly a very unique individual. He is essentially an overgrown 3 year old desperate for attention, good or bad. Probably should have sought help to resolve childhood trauma several decades ago.
centre,
Every serious trading desk in the world has added an additional risk premium to US bonds, stocks and dollars. You know this.
And it’s not called winning.
Poor Dutton can’t get a word of campaigning in with the background noise coming from the US. Too bad.
Bond Auction last night in USA had high demand went well.
Winning!
Labors policy duds have to have a scare campaign via trump!
Aussie futures up 6.6% mind you Labors sellout to China means our rebound will not be stronger.China war on trade is on!
Dutton has been bitten
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/dutton-bitten-by-britton-and-the-nsw-libs-calamities-20250409-p5lqct.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed
If there is one thing that has come to define the NSW Liberals, it is their uncanny ability to botch the selection of their candidates. This week voters in NSW were reminded of this in no uncertain terms.
“ Bluey notes that in Roman Imperial times now was generally the stage at which the Praetorian Guard took matters into their own hands. Enough is enough already.”
____
Bluey probably should bone up on Roman history a fair bit more before drawing parallels.
If this announcement (which, I caution, is only a 90 day pause) signals the end of the US market dip, Trump will have earned the undying hatred of hundreds of thousands of small- to medium- scale investors who have been forced through margin calls to sell their shares during the dip and now can’t afford to buy as many back because the market has inflated once more. And Trump still hasn’t solved – in fact he has worsened – the circumstances of the many tens of thousands of businesses in the US – from small household goods suppliers to car makers and the builders of skyscrapers – that market Chinese goods and/or depend on Chinese inputs for their products.
I assume that he was somehow forced into this backdown by people inside the US who are more powerful than him (there are some). But he clearly hasn’t got the wherewithal to issue a convincing explanation of why he did it. And f___ knows what the likes of Peter Navarro are going to have to say about it: probably refer all future inquires to Ron Varo.
All of this would be a joke, but it’s a bad joke. There will be perhaps millions of families in the US today wondering how much longer they will be able to put food on the table thanks to this. Meanwhile, questions surely have to be asked about the extent to which Trump’s family and friends have been exploiting the opportunity to “buy the dip.” Although I’m not quite sure who is going to ask those questions given that Elon has no doubt sacked all the US Government officials who investigate insider trading. But there are the stock exchanges themselves and also Congressional inquiries. And the NY DA, although it’s a pity that the position is held by that far left, attention-seeking goof Alvin Bragg.
Anyway, a lot of people in the US – many of whom no doubt voted for Trump – will be in the process of shifting their attitude towards what he has been doing from shock and confusion towards seething anger and resentment. Even the MAGA morons out in the boondocks must be somewhat bemused: many of them had bought the idea that it was all about “taking one’s medicine” so that things could get better. But the doctor now seems to have cancelled the prescription.
I envy the historians who – if climate change or nuclear war don’t get us first – will have the opportunity to write about these events in a hundred years’ time. It will be a wonderful story to be able to tell, although explanations won’t come particularly easily.
The right wing cookers are out in force this morning with their cult like devotion to the Donald.
It’s incredible what copious amounts of Sky News watching does to the human brain.
“ If this announcement (which, I caution, is only a 90 day pause) signals the end of the US market dip, Trump will have earned the undying hatred of hundreds of thousands of small- to medium- scale investors who have been forced by margin calls to sell their shares in the dip and now can’t afford to buy as many back with the market inflating again.”
______
This. As much as I hate reactionaries, I don’t despise conservative ‘small L’ types who do their best to make prudent investments on their hard earned.
Yet the muscular ‘out and proud’ self proclaimed conservatives on this blog are lining up to cheer what may well turn out to be the single biggest criminal act in recorded history – and one that ‘their people’ were the victims of.
Get in the bin Pooper. Get in the bin Centre-bet.
Meher, I think the historans will have a fairly easy explanation for what happened with Trump. The bloke is a moron. It’s that simple.
Personally, I’m backing thermonuclear war over climate change as the greatest imminent threat.
After Trump going on a two hour rant at a dinner that the tariffs were essential. He hits the pause button.
He is a sick sick person. He and his cronies need to exit stage left.