Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
The Canadian federal election will be held on April 28, with first past the post used to elect the 343 MPs; 172 seats are required for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Wednesday, and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 44.0% of the vote (up 2.0 since my previous Canadian article on April 1), the Conservatives 37.1% (down 0.4), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.5% (down 0.6), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 5.4% (down 0.1) (23.9% in Quebec), the Greens 2.4% (down 0.4) and the far-right People’s 1.7% (down 0.5).
Seat point estimates are 201 Liberals (up four since my April 1 article), 116 Conservatives (down seven), 20 BQ (up one), five NDP (up two) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals an 87% chance of a majority if the election were held now, up from 80% previously.
The Liberals and Conservatives have a combined 81.1% in the Tracker. If replicated at the election, this would be the highest two-party vote since 1958. The Conservatives need the NDP, BQ and Greens to regain support at the Liberals’ expense. But a Léger poll has remaining NDP and BQ voters strongly supporting a Liberal government (majority or minority) over a Conservative one.
On April 2, Donald Trump announced his big “Liberation Day” tariffs. In the following two sessions (April 3-4), US stock markets suffered brutal losses. On Wednesday US time, Trump said tariffs above 10% on countries other than China would be paused for 90 days, but tariffs on China would increase to 125% after both China and the US had engaged in a trade war. US stocks surged to their biggest one-day gain since 2008. Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls has dropped 2.5 points since my April 1 article to -5.0.
Trump’s tariff chaos in the last week has not had a large impact on the Canadian election, with the Liberal lead up from six points to seven. Canada has already had large doses of Trump’s tariffs, so further doses probably have diminishing returns. With the Liberals ahead by seven points in national polls and well above a majority of seats, they are the likely winners of the election. In early January, the Conservatives were 24 points ahead and headed for a landslide.
New South Korean presidential election required
On December 3, former South Korean right-wing president Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, and was impeached for this by parliament on December 14 with 204 “yes” votes, just over the 200 needed for a two-thirds majority of the 300 MPs. Last Friday, the Constitutional Court unanimously upheld Yoon’s impeachment.
While the court was deliberating, Yoon had been suspended, and the PM had assumed his powers. After the court’s ruling, Yoon was removed from office, and the next presidential election was required by June 3, about two years early. The election will be held on June 3, with this day (a Tuesday) being declared a public holiday.
The president is elected by FPTP. The major parties are the centre-left Democrats and Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP). Major party nominees have not yet been chosen, but hypothetical polling gives Lee Jae-myung, the current Democratic leader, a double-digit lead over all potential PPP candidates.
Parliamentary elections are held separately from presidential elections. At the last parliamentary elections in April 2024, Democrats and their allies defeated the PPP by 188 seats to 108, out of 300 total seats. Winning the presidential election would give Democrats control of government until the 2028 parliamentary elections.
Thanks for the International post, Adrian.
Also coming up in 3 weeks time are the UK Local elections on 1 May.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_Kingdom_local_elections
Most of the council seats up for election seem to be in Conservative strongholds, so the effect of how Reform is going over there should be tested.
Also I’ve noticed the Liberal Democrats are going up slightly in the polls, the latest YouGov has them on 17%, while Labour, Conservatives and Reform are all hovering around 20-25%.
In my lifetime South Korea has gone from dictatorship and martial law to democracy strong enough to impeach and remove a corrupt and autocratic president.
Meanwhile the USA has weakened such that it is now unable to stop an autocrat taking over and destroying the country.
I’m glad the Koreans learnt the habits of freedom and democracy because constitutions alone cannot protect them.
And it is no coincidence that Koreans value education and participation (eg army service) rather than stupidity and evasion of participation (eg draft dodging).
Just noticed Entropy’s prediction is already wrong.
Entropysays:
Sunday, March 2, 2025 at 4:59 pm
“I predict the election will be held on October 20th 2025. It will result in a Canadian Liberal minority Government.”
I do admit their other prediction is looking more likely though.
UK
Last time these council seats were contested was a very, very strong year for Conservatives (2021), so Kemi Badenoch was right to warn the party faithful at the campaign launch that it would be a very difficult election. These seats are the stronger ones for Conservatives typically in any case, known as the ‘shires’ in contrast to ‘metropolitan’ loosely speaking, mostly county council elections which bigger cities don’t fall into at this level of local authority.
Of course, having so many incumbents may also have the effect of their national vote share holding up a bit better than current polls suggest – but that’s about it. Losses will be enormous, though I believe they will hold up somewhat better vs. Labour than they do against Lib Dem and Reform.
Also, many of their stronghold counties in S-E England have postponed elections for 1 or 2 years whilst reorganisations are agreed and take place, to avoid duplicate elections close together. This has angered Reform very much as some of these areas – notably Essex, also Norfolk and others – were areas they were projected to do well.
However, where Labour did best in 2021 may well be where Reform perform their best in any case. There is ample evidence of this at council by-election level the last 6 months.
Also the highlight of the night will probably be the parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby, where Ashcroft polling showed Reform to be competitive in what someone said is Labour’s 16th safest seat. Labour were 53% vs. Reform 18% vs. Conservative 16% last July, so it would send major ripples through the establishment if Reform pull it off.
With a fair bit of public sector employment / University of Chester proximity, significant pockets of the seat are unnatural Reform territory, so it’s an interesting battle of the highly motivated pro-Reform (or anti-Labour) voters in the rest of the seat vs. what Reform would call the Wokerati/Starmeristas.
Conservative will probably be squeezed below 10% in the end, not that that will matter as it was coined as a Lab-Ref battle from the outset.
The alleged lenient ‘sentencing’ of the disgraced Labour MP dovetails nicely into one of right-wingers’ greatest grievances, that of 2-tier justice in the UK (much more harsh to white working class than to BAME or white elites such as this MP, etc.), so there’s a narrative feeding Reform support here that might not be so easily replicated in similar demographic seats elsewhere in the future.
You’re welcome,
BTSays
I still have to pinch myself when I see an incumbent minority government that was facing a landslide just a few weeks ago now looking forward to a solid majority in the House of Commons.
Thank you Donald Trump.
Yes, assuming the polling in Canada is correct, what a spectacular comeback from the Canadian Liberals in 6 months, and Mark Carney to me seems far more solid than Justin Trudeau was. Donald Trump of course has done in the Canadian Conservatives.
CANADA
Poilievre is doing fairly well to keep Conservatives relevant in the face of the tidal wave against them, but it’s just not enough to turn the tide.
And there’s just not that many undecided voters now, although admittedly there’s quite a few from all parties – especially the smaller ones but good chunks of Libs and Cons too – who ‘may change their mind’. But voters have already started voting.
Even if Poilievre thrashes Carney in the debates later in the month, they’re very close to polling day compared to the Oz debates, for example, and it’s a serious question whether there’d be enough voters listening to change the trajectory of the election by that point.
Hard to see other than a Lib landslide now, ably assisted by efficient vote distribution (if you flipped the vote shares, Cons might not even achieve a majority at all).
Dem Saus
The comeback fully took place in just 2 months not 6 months even, historic. It’s just been bouncing around variations of the same kind of poll lead the last month.
And you’re right about Carney. It was Trump’s actions that got Libs there, but Carney being Carney not Trudeau is what is keeping them there.
Abacus have finally joined everyone else and flipped to a significant Lib poll lead, 42-36% from 39-39% just 5 days earlier.
But there’s something weird going on beneath these poll numbers everywhere.
Abacus show just a 3% difference in VI between women and men in that poll. Nanos still have a 26% difference, down from 30%+.
Other pollsters are variations of the same gender disparity.
They can’t all be right – the above isn’t random poll difference. Yet both pollsters showing similar overall leads for Liberals.
I suppose these are the kind of straws Conservative strategists might be clinging onto in the absence of anything better!
Link to the Abacus Data poll that BTSays mentions:
https://abacusdata.ca/2025-federal-election-poll-liberals-take-6-point-lead/
From what I’ve been following, all the polls in Canada have their unique quirks, but it’ll be an interesting exercise over the next few weeks to see how they play out. I’m mainly watching the average on the CBC poll tracker here.
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
With Abacus as mentioned above, and the Mainstreet daily tracker for 9 April showing an unusual jump (normally v stable with smaller daily changes and a slightly higher score for Cons) of 4% to a 7% Lib lead (46-39 from 44-41), I will be intrigued to see Nanos’s daily release for 9 April to see if it follows suit and reverses recent daily gains by Cons. Or is it all just noise around the same thing?
8 April Nanos had Carney’s lead as preferred PM down to 13% from its peak of 22%, gradually been coming down as their polls showed narrowing – but 13% is still substantial and ahead of the party poll lead.
But it’s a number I’m watching in tandem with the polls.
Angus Reid had 50-28% lead for Carney earlier in the week, all others who poll this figure are much lower and closer to the party poll gap.
In what universe is the Canadian Liberal Party a centre left party?
It is a true centre party.
Progressive socially but economically definitely centrist.
Adrian needs to work on his definitions.
It would sit between the Labor and Liberals and probably closely resemble the Teals philosophically I feel.
Nanos 9 April rolling tracker:
Lib 43%
Con 38%
NDP 9%
Con and BQ lose half a per cent each, NDP gain about the same, Lib more-or-less static.
Preferred PM goes the other way but all within MOE – Carney leads by 12% vs. 13% yesterday, though Poilievre didn’t gain – at 34.5%.
Gap between VI and PM narrowing but still there, to Poilievre’s detriment.
Bob Lynch @ #12 Thursday, April 10th, 2025 – 10:59 pm
Honestly I don’t think left or right stuff applies to the Canadian Liberal party. Namely I reckon that the political word that applies to them is “technocratic”.
After the 1770’s American Revolutionary War, pretty much most of the Colonial Administrator class fled North to the Canadian territories and set up base there, where they were happy to set up a society based on the strict rule of law. And they suffered through severe winter after winter to nurture and develop it to the nation it is today.
Of course, them having to live in such a severe climate means that they had to prioritise livability over economic advantages, but in the most part they seem like an amalgamation of Labor, Teals and Greens in terms of Australian political parties.
South Korea – The Democrats will win unless something unexpected happens. It did look like they had over played their hand earlier this year but things have settled now.
Just when you think they’re all edging in the same direction for a couple of days, Liaison Strategies rolling tracker finds a 4-pt shift to PCs.
Lib 43% (-2)
Con 40% (+2)
NDP 8% (-)
BQ 5% (-) though apparently scratch under the surface and that’s an increase in Quebec from 19% to 23%.
Although within MOE changes, FWIW this is both the smallest Lib lead, and the highest PC vote share, since Liaison started tracking on 11 March.
Liaison don’t do ‘preferred PM’ polling – or, at least, if they do it’s not released publicly.
Ask Canadians where they put Liberals on the left-right spectrum – would be interesting to see, but expect a majority would put them left of centre.
I know what Bob means economically about them, but that varies according to who is leader – like Labor in Oz and Labour in UK and NZ, there’s plenty more left-wing MPs waiting in the wings at all times who would be more left-wing economically – though Canadians may in fact have made successive choices that are more pragmatic/centrist.
Socially they are as left-wing as anybody, and not much less green than Greens on eco matters (this last opinion is the most controversial, I appreciate, especially if you are a Green or other eco-passionate).
Likewise I think I would describe PPC as ‘right-wing’ not ‘far right’, which still puts them further to the right than the centre-right PCs. EDIT: health warning: I don’t know a lot about the PPC except their leader is an ex-PC wannabe leader and something of a pro-business populist.
BS Fairman
SOUTH KOREA – that’s interesting. I know Lee is well ahead in polls currently before the race has started, but what makes you so certain that he “will win” even if, say, the PPP and other parties right of centre/centrist unite around one major candidate.
Some candidates will be tarnished by association with Yoon, but more likely PPP go with someone plausibly different that doesn’t make voters fearful of a repeat of martial law; and who nonetheless is credibly strong on foreign policy vis-a-vis North Korea and China.
BTSays @ #16 Thursday, April 10th, 2025 – 11:16 pm
Yeah, I haven’t been paying attention to the “rolling” polls like Liaison lately, because polls that change daily aren’t on the whole that useful because of how volatile they can be.
Like in this example, “Oh my gosh, a 2% swing towards the Conservatives, that means that they could swing back to a majority victory after all if every day from now until the election is also a 2% swing to the Conservatives.”
Yeah, it could actually work out that way, but I’m not down with that method of election prediction according to polls yet.
Kirsdarke
I don’t follow you, what’s wrong with the rolling polls vs. other pollsters? Each one has the same number of responses and MoE as the non-rolling polls.
I think they’re great to give us a daily diet of polls, with 3 of them in Canada we are spoilt 🙂
“Like in this example, “Oh my gosh, a 2% swing towards the Conservatives, that means that they could swing back to a majority victory after all if every day from now until the election is also a 2% swing to the Conservatives.””
I don’t really get why anyone would say this – or at least, why they would be more likely to say that for a daily/rolling poll than a weekly one.
Each rolling poll contains 3 days of data remember – just like many of the weekly/fortnightly ones.
Arangesays:
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 5:02 pm
Just noticed Entropy’s prediction is already wrong.
Entropysays:
Sunday, March 2, 2025 at 4:59 pm
“I predict the election will be held on October 20th 2025. It will result in a Canadian Liberal minority Government.”
I do admit their other prediction is looking more likely though.
=======================================================
I doubt my other prediction will be right either. Looks far more likely a majority Canadian Liberal Government then a minority. Then again i have never claimed to be some whiz election predictor. Unlike the poster who was dissing me here.
Indeed – a certain someone insisting on an “inevitable” Conservative majority not 3 weeks ago based on the so-called “keys” seems to have backtracked quite quickly. Except that it’s not fast enough, since in all likelihood we are about to see a Liberal majority.
Carney is currently projected for ~200 seats and there’s barely 2 weeks left for the kind of big swing required for him to fall to minority. In particular the crucial “swing ridings” in Ontario which are providing the bulk of the Liberal seats are currently projecting very large margins. The NDP are still poisoned electorally and Carney is soaking up their voters like a sieve. The chances of either an NDP or Conservative rally cutting into the Liberal tally look increasingly remote.
Entropysays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 10:37 am
“Then again i have never claimed to be some whiz election predictor. Unlike the poster who was dissing me here.”
My WA prediction: 57.0% 2PP Labor
Result: 57.1% 2PP Labor
Arangesays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 1:25 pm
“I predict a state-wide 2PP of 57.0 to Labor. (I aim to be within 1.5 of the result)”
I wouldn’t be daft enough to predict the Canada vote shares or seat counts until after the debates next week at least, and probably not till polling day, but it would be a fun exercise to do for those who feel we know enough to give it a go.
No exchanging of money proposed or anything like that. . . (William has my minimal political cash allowance for this month in any case! – a worthy cause given the useful data provided on multiple fronts and hope others are sharing their pennies).
Addasays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 1:26 pm
“Indeed – a certain someone insisting on an “inevitable” Conservative majority not 3 weeks ago based on the so-called “keys” seems to have backtracked quite quickly. Except that it’s not fast enough, since in all likelihood we are about to see a Liberal majority.”
Reasons why the Canadian Liberals will not win a majority:
The Conservative Solid voter base means higher likelihood of turning out, and less likely to change their mind when they actually vote, therefore benefiting Conservatives.
It’s the economy and the keys, the economy has the Conservatives winning the popular vote outside the margin of error, and the keys show a near-certain Conservative popular vote victory.
Simply assuming the polls go back a little closer to what they were at before the big bounce started would put the Conservatives way ahead.
The Global economic/political cycle favours Conservatives.
Pretty obvious if you ask me.
Arange
That’s pretty spot on for WA. Well done.
At what point will you be predicting for the federal election?
BTSays at
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 6:15 pm
“Arange
At what point will you be predicting for the federal election?”
The day before polling day for the specific vote share prediction, and whenever I reckon it isn’t a toss-up for the actual result.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/04/10/canadian-election-minus-18-days/comment-page-1/#comment-4496955
Sorry Arange, that comment of mine re Canada wasn’t aimed at you in case you thought it was, it was my comment in response to the collection of posts above mine re Canada / Carney’s big lead etc.
I’m just not sure the mood can swing back in Canada like you anticipate, in such a short space of time. I have no doubt it would have done – due to all the fundamentals (essentially what you refer to as ‘keys’ I guess) being what they are, but Carney was smart enough to call an election straight away, and with a short campaign.
People are barely getting a chance to catch their breath and it’ll all be over. Then it’s a reset like it always is after an election, and Conservatives have to start all over again.
I am between yours and Adda’s opinions in that I can see the possibility of a swingback to the PCs, partly through people having longer to reflect and be used to both Carney and Trump and remembering why they wanted the Libs gone only 3-4 months prior.
Then, specifically and absolutely crucially, if Poilievre and other opposition leaders outflank Carney in the debates. Poilievre will find an ally in the BQ leader Blanchet – not through any affinity between them, but because Blanchet knows that his target in the debates has to be Carney not Poilievre if he wants to save all those BQ seats being lost to the Liberals. Any wounds he successfully inflicts will have knock-on effects outside of Quebec itself, this is a national debate stage.
If the NDP leader Singh does go after Carney primarily in the debate – he hates Poilievre far more but knows it’s the Libs who’ve stolen more than 1/2 of their votes – that may not help the Cons so much even if successful, due to the leftwing issues Singh will be focusing on. Singh, Poilievre and the Greens may find unlikely common cause regarding the offshore tax havens that Carney has helped stash billions in – it’s not the legality of it, but the optics. (Cons messaging against backdrop of Carney is “Tax increases for THEE; Tax havens for ME”.)
I think Poilievre has done fairly well to keep energetic and look positive, and by managing to evolve his messaging without claiming any grandiose reset that might backfire.
From outside the country like we are, it looked like Poilievre was a bit slow at the start of the Trump comments on Canada (began well prior to his inauguration) and on Carney during the Liberal leadership campaign. But how do you predict / plan for stuff like that effectively?
The fact that polls have plateaued somewhat doesn’t mean they are going to rebound to the PCs, or even that they won’t start moving further towards the Libs in due course, BUT you CAN’T have a rebound without the polls first plateauing.
BTSayssays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 6:40 pm
“Sorry Arange, that comment of mine re Canada wasn’t aimed at you in case you thought it was, it was my comment in response to the collection of posts above mine re Canada / Carney’s big lead etc.”
No problem.
BTSayssays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 6:15 pm
Arange
That’s pretty spot on for WA. Well done.
At what point will you be predicting for the federal election?
==================================================
While the opinion poll a day earlier said this:
The new West Australian poll showing 57% support for Labor on a two-party preferred basis compared to 43% for the Liberals.
“Conducted between 4-5 March 2025, 1126 respondents were asked who they would vote for, their preferred premier, and whether they think WA was headed in the right direction.
On a primary vote basis, WA Labor led on 43% (down 16.9% from the 2021 state election) followed by the Liberals on 30%, Greens 11% and Any Other Candidate 11% and Nationals at 5%.”
https://demosau.com/news/wa-poll-points-to-clear-wa-labor-win/
There is no skill at all in having the same prediction as an opinion poll. Which came out a day before your prediction and just a couple of days before the election. Nearly everyone was predicting about a 57% to Labor in the WA election after that poll. Though most people realise that posting the same prediction as poll has just made doesn’t make you look bright. Note the only other poll within a few weeks of that election, Newspoll a week earlier than it was 57.5% to Labor so pretty similar too.
“I predict a state-wide 2PP of 57.0 to Labor. (I aim to be within 1.5 of the result)”
This comment was made om thread for the Demu Au WA poll which predicted a 57% vote for Labor and a MOE of 1.5%. Why making a comment predicting the exact same margin and MOE as the opinion poll you are commenting on is considered some achievement?
Entropysays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 9:26 pm
“While the opinion poll a day earlier said this:
The new West Australian poll showing 57% support for Labor on a two-party preferred basis compared to 43% for the Liberals.
“Conducted between 4-5 March 2025, 1126 respondents were asked who they would vote for, their preferred premier, and whether they think WA was headed in the right direction.
On a primary vote basis, WA Labor led on 43% (down 16.9% from the 2021 state election) followed by the Liberals on 30%, Greens 11% and Any Other Candidate 11% and Nationals at 5%.”
https://demosau.com/news/wa-poll-points-to-clear-wa-labor-win/
There is no skill at all in having the same prediction as an opinion poll. Which came out a day before your prediction and just a couple of days before the election. Nearly everyone was predicting about a 57% to Labor in the WA election after that poll. Though most people realise that posting the same prediction as poll has just made doesn’t make you look bright. Note the only other poll within a few weeks of that election, Newspoll a week earlier than it was 57.5% to Labor so pretty similar too.
“I predict a state-wide 2PP of 57.0 to Labor. (I aim to be within 1.5 of the result)”
This comment was made om thread for the Demu Au WA poll which predicted a 57% vote for Labor and a MOE of 1.5%. Why making a comment predicting the exact same margin and MOE as the opinion poll you are commenting on is considered some achievement?”
Actually, the Newspoll on the same day showed a 2PP Labor vote of 57.5 to Labor. If you think I was copying a poll, why wouldn’t I go with Newspoll? Anyway, not sure if you’ve heard of it before but it’s called an “average of polls adjusted a little to the fundamentals, and factoring in voter firmness”
hope that helps.
“Actually, the Newspoll on the same day showed a 2PP Labor vote of 57.5 to Labor. If you think I was copying a poll, why wouldn’t I go with Newspoll? ”
The Newspoll covered the period 27th Feb – 5 Mar 2025. The Demos Poll 4-5 Mar 2025. So you went with the one concentrating on the vote closer to the election.
Entropysays:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 1:19 pm
“The Newspoll covered the period 27th Feb – 5 Mar 2025. The Demos Poll 4-5 Mar 2025. So you went with the one concentrating on the vote closer to the election.”
…did you even read the rest of my post?
I explained how I ended up with 57.0 to Labor.
Mainstreet Research
Up to 12 April shows a significant move to PCs, that is probably nothing but noise, the other daily trackers covering 12 April aren’t released yet (MR are always well ahead of the other 2) so nothing to compare with and they’re all bouncing around a bit.
Lib 44% (-1)
PC 43% (+3)
NDP 6% (-1%)
BQ 4%
As is normal, above based on ‘decided’ and ‘leaning’. Based on ‘all voters’ the score was 42-42%, suggesting that this poll lead is the south side of 1% as normally their gap doesn’t change between ‘all’ and ‘decided/leaning’.
The headline numbers are backed up by a significant change in approval rating for Pierre Poilievre.
Approval/disapproval:
Mark Carney 53/42% (-1 / +2) = net approval 11% (-3)
Pierre Poilievre 51/45% (+3/-3) = net approval 6% (+6)
Jagmeet Singh 35/54% (-5/+2) = net approval -19% (-7)
If / when comparing with other polls that come in, keep in mind that there is some kind of house effect that means that Poilievre gets his best approval numbers from Mainstreet anyway. Eg, the other day, he was fairly constant at about net -3% or so with MR whilst being typically c.-15% or so with other pollsters. So I wouldn’t expect him to be in net positive territory with any of them even if there is movement in his favour.
Unfortunately MR don’t do ‘best PM’ question it seems. And their provincial numbers are paywalled.
Finally, keep in mind that this may well be simply a ‘rogue batch’ and MR’s numbers will be ‘back to normal’ tomorrow! and the proxy war leading up to the debates will continue.
But I thought it was worth commenting on right now in the absence of much else. But remember: Libs would STILL almost certainly get a majority with 44-43% lead federally.
Nanos daily tracker
Nothing dramatic here:
Lib 44.3% (+1)
PC 38.6% (+1.5)
NDP 8.5% (-1)
BQ 5.2% (-0.6%
Green 2.0% (-0.8%)
Fundamentals under these VI numbers still vg for Libs, such as:
* Carney still leads PM question, 48.7-35% so running an 8% higher lead than the party vote.
* Support in right places, eg 14% lead in Ontario whilst relatively less good than you’d expect in Atlantic, BC and Prairies.
* Older voters still the Libs’ and Carney’s strongest demographic.
* Unusually low number of undecideds for this stage of a campaign, 7%.
We still have the massive gender disparity, 26% in this poll, far bigger than other pollsters – not sure what we can learn from this, it’s a puzzle.
BT yeah honestly I think the liberals in Canada’s got this unless Mark incredible be stupid the conservators pivot too late like the Australian liberal party did also what was meant to be a massive conservative majority is now a liberal majority
The full Canadian candidates lists have been published.
Most ridings have a handful of candidates.
Carney who is standing in Nepean has 6 opponents.
Pierre Poilievre, in Carleton, has 90.
Almost all – 86 – sponsored by the Longest Ballot Committee – a group who promotes electoral reform.
They said they would have done the same with Carney but didn’t have the time as Carney only became the candidate in Nepean close to the close of nominations.
All reached the 100 signatures required to be nominated. Though in Canada an elector can nominate more than one candidate. Still an impressive piece of organisation. There isn’t any sort of filing fee in Canada to control ballot access as they have been ruled not to comply with the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
Posting this on the international thread, as there is a slight suggestion of an anti Right backlash, as the left parties did better overall since the Presidential & European elections last year.. One quote stood out to me.
https://yle.fi/a/74-20155715
The Social Democrats took a big win in Finland’s municipal elections on Sunday, taking nearly one in four votes nationwide to push the National Coalition Party of Prime Minister Petteri Orpo into second place.
In the county council elections, for 21 regional bodies that arrange social and healthcare outside Helsinki, the SDP also topped the poll. The Centre Party recorded a good result in its rural heartlands to secure third spot.
Government parties did poorly, with all but the NCP losing support compared to the previous municipal elections in 2021. Turnout in the municipal election was 54.2 percent, while the county elections saw 51.7 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots.
………………………………..
The Left Alliance improved their support compared to 2021, with a clear improvement on the eight percent they achieved last time out. Party leader Minja Koskela said the poor support for the government parties was not a shock.
”I’m not surprised,” said Koskela. ”They have not done anything in government that would have generated trust. I haven’t seen anything in the city council other than no, no, no and trolling while wearing MAGA hats.”
Leroy
It’s an anti-incumbent backlash, not an anti-RW backlash.
As the recent German elections testified to, and the UK council elections 1 May will show the same.
France L’Ensemble party did buck the trend in the 2nd round of voting in their 2024 parliamentary election, winning more seats [in the 2nd round] than anyone else, though you wouldn’t think so from the prevailing narrative afterwards (including Macron himself, bizarrely – poorly informed advisors I’d say). The narrative seemed to get decided after the 1st round and that was it. Everyone but the centre claimed victory.
To complete the picture of yesterday’s released daily trackers up to Saturday polling, we have
LIASON STRATEGIES
Lib 45% (-1)
Con 37% (-2)
NDP 7% (+1)
BQ 6% (+1)
So Mainstreet was the outlier, frankly, and we had 1%, 5% and 8% leads from the 3 daily trackers.
Underlying numbers in Liaison by province etc are perfect for, and would give a massive majority to, Libs, including winning multiple seats in Saskatchewan of all places.
Cons would win a small number in Quebec but be struggling to sandbag what they already have everywhere else in the face of the Lib tidal wave even though their vote share is up from 2021.
MQO Research 10-12 April (changes from 6 days earlier)
Lib 44% (-)
Con 35% (+1)
NDP 12% (+1)
BQ 4% (-1)
Green 4% (-)
MQO are outliers in favour of NDP and Green vs. other pollsters.
Carney leads Poilievre 43-30% (both up 1%) on PM question.
Meanwhile, MAINSTREET RESEARCH are as always first out of the blocks on the 3-day rolling poll ending yesterday:
Lib 42% (-2)
Con 44% (+1)
NDP 6% (-)
BQ 4% (-)
This is the first poll showing a Con lead since Innovative Research 38-37% lead 31 March. Suffice to say it’s in outlier, though outliers 2 days running from a reputable pollster (A- rating) must mean something.
Unfortunately the hosting site for the pdf reports seems to be down atm so I can’t check the approval numbers of the leaders to see how they are trending.
IPSOS
Poll ending 10 April released yesterday, showed a halving of the Lib lead, in to 42-36%, and an even greater movement on preferred PM, into 41-36% to Carney. Still big majority territory.
The next Ekos, Angus Reid and Abacus polls will be eagerly awaited to give us a rounder picture ahead of the debates.
I think it was the Ipsos poll that reported voters believe Carney will win the English debate and Poilievre the French debate.
I believe it plays into Carney’s hands that the French debate is first. His French being modest, expectations are low – but he will get the lines of attack against him still, for him to prepare better ahead of the rerun in English the following night. I’m sure it would have suited Poilievre and the other leaders (maybe not so BQ) to have had the English one first.
Not that Poilievre and team won’t realise that and plan accordingly, but it’s still the wrong way round for them.
Of course, it will suit Team Poilievre if Carney is expected to win the English debate prior to the event. Easier for their guy to beat expectations.
NANOS
Lib 44.8 (+0.5)
Con 37.8 (-0.8)
NDP 8.8 (+0.3)
BQ 5.5 (+0.3)
Carney similarly out to 50-34% as preferred PM over Poilievre.
Gender gap back out to nearly 32%.
POLLARA 8-13 APRIL (changes from a week earlier)
Lib 44 (NC)
Con 36 (NC)
NDP 9 (NC)
BQ 5 (-1)
25% gender gap.
LIAISON
Lib 44% (-1)
Con 38% (+1)
Everyone else = NC
Gender gap 10%, down from 12%.
Although Liaison and Nanos generally have similar headline numbers, and both are daily trackers, I definitely find the underlying numbers by gender and age more plausible for Liaison.
As stated before, all pollsters can’t be right on the gender bit of their polls.
Something I read on the 338 site spoke about record numbers of 18-34 age voting this time, which is good for Conservatives if so. I don’t know how to verify that, nor do I know whether pollsters are factoring in those sort of changes sufficiently but one has to assume so.
@BTSays
I’m not sure the English local election results will mean very much in the scheme of things.
The cycle up for election is for relatively few seats up for election – approx 1,600 of which Labour hold 336. And in many of the councils it’s the tories that are the incumbents.
Would have been more but elections have been postponed in a number of areas – mainly at the request of the Tory Leaders of those councils
This will be a bad election for the Tories. They will loose far more seats to Reform than Labour and lose many councils they current have majorities on to no overall control.
Some of my Tory friends are calling their Leader ‘bad enough’ and variations thereof.
ChrisC
Yes of course Tories will lose far more to Reform than Labour as they have for more to lose.
But if you ignore past council results, which were a high year for Con and poor for Lab, Reform will do best in e.g. seats where there is a Labour MP.
Exceptions to this might be any larger towns that are in this round of elections that are more ‘metro’, where Greens and Lib Dems might be stronger challengers to Labour.
Lib Dems will do very well in Tory areas as well as where they won MPs last year. I suspect they will take majority control of a bunch of councils.
Greens will have some success in both Labour and Tory areas.
There’s no doubt it will be a tough night for the Tories, especially where Lib Dem ground game is significantly better (which is probably most places they are competitive!). No-one likes to see big losses for their party, even when entirely expected and not really preventable at this point.
I’m sure the spin machines will be out in force for all parties on 2 May.
Electoral Calculus poll 1-10 March suggested Tories would win the most seats, 548, with Reform on 474, Lib Dem 274 and Lab 252. (remember these are more focused on regions that are more Conservative than Labour historically, the shires not the cities)
ChrisC
Here is the link to Electoral Calculus, it’s actually a really good article that sets it out clearly and gives % votes expected etc. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html
Keeping in mind that the actual election is 1 May, about two months after this poll, and that polling for local elections is hard to do – though being an MRP poll would have largely overcome that?
Headline % of vote in areas that are voting is:
Con 26%
Reform 25%
Labour 20%
Lib Dem 16%
Green 6%
I wouldn’t be surprised if Lib Dem and Green win slightly more votes and seats than predicted, old-fashioned ground campaigns are their strength.
Lib Dems forecast to be largest party in 5 but majority in 0, but suspect they might grab a couple of majorities in reality.
Reform forecast to be largest party in 8, of which 4 are majority.
Labour lose their only majority, Doncaster, to Reform.
Conservative forecast to lose all but 3 of their 17 majorities, but remain the largest party in a further 8 of them.
All their minority-led councils fall to opposing parties.
Conservative councillors predicted to fall from 1420/2247 total seats (63) last time these seats were contested to 548/1648 seats (33%), though may well do worse than this IMHO as per comments on Green and Lib Dem above, also a hard core of Reform are highly motivated to vote, and local elections are low turnout affairs.
The reason for the lower total seat count this time is due to delayed elections in multiple councils due to reorganisation going through etc. – to the detriment of all parties’ seat counts except Cons and Lab.
CANADA
MAINSTREET 12-14 April (3-day rolling, changes from 11-13 April):
Lib 44 (+2)
Con 43 (-1)
NDP 5 (-1)
BQ 4 (-)
I believe 5% is the lowest that NDP have been polled by Mainstreet.
Approval/Disapproval:
Carney 51-42%
Poilievre 49-44%
Singh 34-54%
ANGUS REID 11-13 April (changes from 6 days earlier)
Lib 45% (-1)
Con 39% (+3)
NDP 7% (-)
BQ 7% (-)
Preferred PM: Carney leads Poilievre 49-30%, in slightly from 50-28% but still a big lead – I’d say a decisive one were it not for pollsters showing smaller leads that just leave the door open a crack ahead of the all-important debates this week.
For a 6% poll lead, the underlying provincial numbers are less good for Libs, with smaller leads in Ontario and BC than other pollsters, and correspondingly better numbers elsewhere that may yield fewer seat gains from Cons. This is still relative and obviously still reflects a very solid Lib majority, but worth watching these numbers if polls tighten.
Gender gap has widened further, to 23%.
In stark contrast to other pollsters, Angus Reid show 18-34% age range as the weakest for Conservative at just 30% to Libs 44% (their biggest lead but not highest number – Libs get 47% among over-55s).
Apparently Mainstreet did provide seat projection nationally in front of the paywall and even with the 44-42% lead to Conservative, their provincial breakdown gave a LIBERAL MAJORITY.
That’s pretty significant and shows all the work Cons have to do.
Libs won a minority the last 2 elections whilst Conservative won a plurality of the vote by about 1%, but this is a 2% deficit that leads still to a majority (not minority) for Libs. Not sure if / when that’s happened before.