Federal miscellany: Morgan poll, candidate ructions and more (open thread)

Another poll finds the Coalition on a downward trajectory, as the Liberals dump a candidate and the leaders prepare for the first debate-style event of the campaign.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s headline two-party lead out from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5, in a result otherwise distinguished by a two-point drop in the Coalition primary vote to 33%, its weakest result in the series since June 2023. Labor, the Greens and One Nation are all up half a point, to 32.5%, 13.5% and 6% respectively, with independents down one-and-a-half to 9% and others up two to 6% (from which are told the Trumpet of Patriots component provides 1.5%). The two-party measure based on 2022 election flows has Labor’s lead out from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1481.

Other developments:

• The Liberal Party has dumped its candidate for the Illawarra seat of Whitlam, Benjamin Britton, and replaced him with Nathaniel Smith, who held the state seat of Wollondilly from 2019 until his defeat by independent Judy Hannan in 2023. At issue was Britton’s record as a commentator on right-wing podcasts, specifically his view that women should be removed from combat roles in the military. The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column characterises Britton’s dumping as “the final nail in the coffin for the Trump-loving faction of the NSW Liberals, associated with Matt Camenzuli … now running as an independent against Labor’s Chris Bowen in McMahon”.

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Scott Yung, the Liberal candidate for Bennelong, warmly addressed Xie Xiongming, a “casino high-roller linked to the Chinese Communist Party”, at a Lunar New Year event in January after previously claiming no association with him. Last week it was reported Yung failed to disclose his engagement of a digital marketing agency to target Chinese language websites during his campaign for the state seat of Kogarah in 2019. In March, it was reported that Yung boasted on his candidate nomination form of having raised $60,000 through a fundraiser during his 2019 campaign, despite no disclosure to that effect having been lodged.

• The two leaders will participate in a “people’s forum” from 7:30pm this evening, conducted in western Sydney by Sky News and the Daily Telegraph. Some measure of determining a winner will be employed, presumably involving the verdict of a panel of swinging voters. The ABC will host a debate at 8pm next Wednesday, to be moderated by Insiders host David Speers.

• Both parties will conduct campaign launches on Sunday, Labor’s being held for the second successive election in Perth, emphasising Western Australia’s importance in the government’s calculations. The location of the Liberal launch is yet to be disclosed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

806 thoughts on “Federal miscellany: Morgan poll, candidate ructions and more (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 17
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  1. China said Monday it would not cave to pressure or threats after US President Donald Trump vowed additional 50 percent tariffs on its goods if Beijing did not retract planned countermeasures.
    “We have stressed more than once that pressuring or threatening China is not a right way to engage with us. China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,” Liu Pengyu, spokesman for Beijing’s embassy in the United States, told AFP.

  2. The only things that can stop Trump before the expiry of his term are a civil war or impeachment.

    MAGA Republicans are very heavily armed, so a civil war is probably out of the question.

    So it’s up to Congress.

  3. Hh

    IMO China had nothing to lose.

    Trump had already raised the China tariffs to a level that effectively blocked all Chinese exports to the US.

    Trump threatening to increase tariffs by another 50% is meaningless bluster although Trump may not realize that.

    Trump and Xi combined are going to slaughter the Australian economy.

  5. Socrates

    There is one big difference. Caligula promoted a horse.

    Trump promotes the odd horses arse.

    There is also a difference between Trump and Nero.

    Nero fiddled. Trump golfs.

  6. Bizzcan says:
    Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 7:42 am
    “Labor to offer free psychologist, psychiatrist visits at clinics under $1b mental health plan. The new funding will be directed into Medicare mental health centres, headspace clinics and youth specialist care centres.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-raises-stakes-on-mental-health-with-1b-pledge-as-dutton-fuels-cost-of-living-policy-20250407-p5lpvh.html

    Good announcement, though likely for ahead of the debate…
    ____________________

    It’s typical reactionary policy for vulnerable people who have been fcked over by corrupted establishment Govts for years through exploding CoL, climate change and the fossil fuel cartel vampires.

  9. Socrates. Have you had a look at the Truro bypass proposal. While the town bypass might be positive, the new road proposal at Accomodation Hill looks unnecessary waste.
    All that seems to be required is a wider road up and down the slope – maybe 3 lanes up and 2 or 3 down. The proposed new section is still in relatively steep land and hence massive earthworks and massive cost.

  10. Morning all from the seat of Wannon. Unable to do the us cartoons this morning. I’ll catch up later in the week.

  12. I am pretty pessimistic that Trump and the GOP will back away from the tariff strategy. It isn’t about manufacturing jobs. That is the explanation for MAGA fools.

    Tariffs are about funding tax cuts, which is the raison d’etre for all GOP policy. They don’t care about giving up on any global leadership.

    The GOP tax cuts bill has already been tabled in Congress. That is where the tariff money goes.

    IMO there will be a profound restructuring of global finance and trade away from USA in the next four years.

    If the tariffs were really about manufacturing jobs, Trump would have accepted Vietnam’s generous offer.

  14. Good Morning! Here’s your Week 2 of the Election Campaign Daily News and Views Roundup.

    How the Liberals’ work-from-home crackdown came undone, after it created trouble in dozens of seats. By political reporter Tom Crowley
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-08/work-from-home-created-trouble-in-dozens-of-seats/105146686

    A cynical voter wondered “how many Coalition backflips are we to hear and believe” as politicians from all sides faced constituents on a special Q+A from Sydney’s south-west. Cost of living, Donald Trump and trade tariffs, immigration and housing were the hot topics at the Casula Powerhouse Arts Centre, a political battleground this election.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-07/q-a-live-blog-april-7-cost-of-living-trump-tariffs/105146090

    Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese will both formally launch their election campaigns with major set-piece events this Sunday, as Labor and the Coalition scramble to nail down their election pitch to voters before the Easter long weekend. The location of the Liberal launch remains a closely guarded secret, but the two most likely cities are Sydney, where the party’s campaign headquarters is located, or Melbourne, where the Coalition is hoping to win a swag of suburban Labor seats including McEwen, Hawke, Chisholm, Aston and Dunkley off the back of an unpopular state Labor government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/major-parties-race-clock-and-each-other-to-make-big-pitches-to-voters-20250407-p5lpo4.html

    Somebody is leaking, the Coalition backflips and Labor remembers the Victorian premier.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-07/working-from-home-public-service-peter-dutton-leak-election/105143572

    Federal Labor stumps up $225 million for notorious Reid Highway Erindale Road intersection in WA
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/federal-labor-stumps-up-225-million-for-notorious-reid-highway-erindale-road-intersection-20250407-p5lpw7.html

    Albanese raises stakes on mental health with $1b pledge as Dutton fuels cost-of-living policy. The new funding will be directed into Medicare mental health centres, headspace clinics and youth specialist care centres, which will offer Australians free access to psychologists or psychiatrists, while giving Labor a new angle to campaign on as it fights the election over healthcare.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-raises-stakes-on-mental-health-with-1b-pledge-as-dutton-fuels-cost-of-living-policy-20250407-p5lpvh.html

    The election race is on and Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton will both have the chance to spruik their policies and make a case for their leadership in several upcoming debates hosted by several different Australian media outlets. Here’s how you can watch them.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-08/how-to-watch-leaders-debates/105138124

    Treasurer stokes interest rate cut expectations as Dutton warns against Labor-Greens in a crisis
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-07/chalmers-flags-interest-rate-expectations-trump-tariffs/105147626

    The major parties are helping create a generation of swing voters and it’s turning the campaign upside down. Dr Rebecca Huntley says the rise in swing voters charts alongside the rising lack of trust in institutions. By Casey Briggs
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-07/swingers-major-parties-soft-voters-uncommitted/105118846

    These are the kinds of voters who will decide the election and their views on politicians are damning. A focus group was brought together by ABC News in the federal seat of McEwen, on Melbourne’s outer northern fringes. By Casey Briggs
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-08/focus-group-swingers-outer-suburban-voters-federal-election/105145662

    Influenced: The new media creators gaining ground this election
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2025/2025/04/07/federal-election-influencers

    Victoria’s hot seats LIVE updates: Monique Ryan calls out Amelia Hamer over renter persona; Zoe Daniel’s campaign launch, Julian Hill hits hustings in Bruce. That makes two properties in Hamer’s name – one in Canberra’s most prestigious suburb, overlooking Parliament House, and another in London’s NW3 postcode.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/victoria-s-hot-seats-live-updates-zoe-daniel-s-campaign-launch-julian-hill-hits-hustings-in-bruce-amelia-hamer-faces-questions-on-investment-properties-20250406-p5lpml.html

    The trouble with Labor in Victoria – and what reckoning there might be at the federal election
    By Paul Strangio
    https://theconversation.com/the-trouble-with-labor-in-victoria-and-what-reckoning-there-might-be-at-the-federal-election-248118

    The South Australian retired farmer: ‘I only vote because I’ve got to’. John Sparrow retired to a property near Tailem Bend after a lifetime working in agriculture. He has nine grandchildren and seven great-grandchildren, and is worried they won’t be able to buy a house
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/07/the-south-australian-retired-farmer-i-only-vote-because-ive-got-to

    ‘This is out of control’: The 750 tradies who bought fake qualifications from criminals. Building defects cost Sydney homeowners and taxpayers $700m a year. Some of the problem begins with who is engaged to do the work.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/this-is-out-of-control-the-750-tradies-who-bought-fake-qualifications-from-criminals-20250404-p5lp4o.html

    First a golf course, now schools. How NSW is reclaiming green space for apartment living
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/first-a-golf-course-now-schools-how-nsw-is-reclaiming-green-space-for-apartment-living-20250407-p5lpuk.html

    Queensland government to review greenhouse gas emission reduction targets
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-08/qld-productivity-commission-lnp-emissions-reduction-targets/105148146

    Mining giant Glencore seeks taxpayer bailout for Mount Isa copper smelter
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-08/glencore-copper-smelter-mount-isa-uncertain-future/105145134

    A key royal commission recommendation for paramedics to take over mental health callouts from police has been delayed to 2027, four years later than the Victorian government promised.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/four-year-delay-in-transferring-power-from-police-to-paramedics-for-mental-health-callouts-20250403-p5lou7.html

    Trump’s tariffs: Friends with few benefits and foes with plenty. By Peter Hartcher
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-tariffs-friends-with-few-benefits-and-foes-with-plenty-20250407-p5lprc.html

    Consumers around the world are boycotting US goods. Should Trump be worried?
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/consumer/2025/04/07/trump-tariff-boycott

    America is having a break with reality on tariffs. The world will move on to a new order
    By Alan Kohler
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-07/tariffs-trump-world-will-move-on/105143574

    Global financial crisis vibes abound as Trump tariffs risk US ‘fall from greatness’
    By business editor Michael Janda
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-07/gfc-vibes-abound-as-trump-tariffs-risk-economic-armageddon/105147434

    Despite Australian dollar and shares falling, America will be the biggest loser in Trump’s tariff war.
    By Ian Verrender
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-08/why-america-will-be-the-biggest-loser-in-trump-s-tariff-war/105148340

    Ross Gittins Trump’s trade war is bad, but how bad is up to the rest of us
    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/04/trumps-trade-war-is-bad-but-how-bad-is-up-to-the-rest-of-us/

    The US-China trade war escalated as President Donald Trump threatened drastically higher tariffs on Chinese goods, while giving his strongest signal to date that he will lower tariffs on countries that agree to remove their own trade barriers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/it-all-has-to-change-trump-escalates-trade-war-with-new-tariff-threat-for-china-20250408-p5lpxr.html

    In a move that stunned traders, analysts and policymakers alike, China has just announced a complete halt on all liquefied natural gas imports from the United States. A decision made abruptly with no prior indication, no phased reduction and no explanation beyond a terse statement from Beijing.
    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/04/us-lng-crippled-as-australia-seizes-us1-5b-trade-overnight/

    China takes the helm in countering Trump’s tariff offensive. By Imran Khalid
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/china-takes-the-helm-in-countering-trumps-tariff-offensive,19602

    Donald Trump has gatecrashed the federal election. It’s creating huge challenges for Australia’s next government. The US alliance will endure despite Trump’s efforts to upend the global order. But whoever wins the May 3 election must boost engagement with regional partners. By Rebecca Strating, La Trobe University
    https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-has-gatecrashed-the-federal-election-its-creating-huge-challenges-for-australias-next-government-251912

    We should walk away — quickly — from Trump’s America. By Jack Waterford
    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/04/we-should-walk-away-quickly-from-trumps-america/

    Port of Darwin operator says Albanese and Dutton are treating it like ‘a political football’ in election
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/05/australian-election-2025-port-of-darwin-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-labor-coalition

    Former NT attorney-general John Elferink has accused both the Coalition and federal Labor of treating the Port of Darwin as a “political football” ahead of the May election. Mr Elferink defended his former Country Liberal government’s decision to lease the port in 2015.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-08/nt-minister-defends-darwin-port-lease-deal/105147540

    Donald Trump’s sharemarket bloodbath hits Australians’ savings
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/donald-trump-s-sharemarket-bloodbath-hits-australians-savings-20250407-p5lpua.html

    The West Is Red Poem By Roger Chao
    ‘The West is red, the tweets are loud, the slogans reach the sky,
    The faithful cheer, their banners wave, the facts just roll on by…
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/art-display/the-west-is-red,19556

    Confronted with Trump’s unexpectedly high and broad new tariffs and taken aback by the unsophisticated and illogical way they had been calculated (which speaks volumes about the capabilities and credibility of the administration), the gut response of sharemarket investors was a sell-down of their risk exposures that wiped more than $US5.4 trillion ($8.8 trillion) off the value of the US market, with similar waves of selling offshore. By Stephen Bartholomeusz
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/is-trump-sending-america-into-a-financial-crisis-we-may-be-about-to-find-out-20250407-p5lpo9.html

    Here’s one key thing you should know about Trump’s shock to the world economy: it could work
    It’s hard to say if the president truly knows what he’s doing. But there is a precedent for the US causing short-term chaos and reaping long-term gain. By James Meadway
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/07/donald-trump-world-economy-shock-us

    Trump’s most loyal supporters are begging him to do tariff deals. Key senators encouraged the president to quickly secure trade agreements amid mounting Wall Street losses and rising political anxiety.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/07/trump-tariffs-congress-gop-trade-deals-00277181

    How do you price the risk of ‘economic nuclear winter’? The market hasn’t a clue. By Nils Pratley
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2025/apr/07/how-do-you-price-the-risk-of-economic-nuclear-winter-the-stock-market-hasnt-a-clue

    Australia may dodge global trade war recession but Chalmers flags ‘substantial’ risks to growth
    Economist Warwick McKibbin says ‘economic and policy flexibility’ puts Australia in better position to escape fallout from Trump tariffs
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/07/australia-could-avoid-recession-from-global-trade-war-economist-warwick-mckibbin-says

    Trump has Australia’s generic medicines in his sights. And no-one’s talking about it
    https://theconversation.com/trump-has-australias-generic-medicines-in-his-sights-and-no-ones-talking-about-it-253836

    Trump’s shadow is electoral kryptonite to the voters Dutton needs most. By Christopher Pyne
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-shadow-is-electoral-kryptonite-to-the-voters-dutton-needs-most-20250406-p5lpil.html

    Could the Coalition’s spectacular backdown be the circuit breaker that Peter Dutton needs? Junking a signature policy to focus on his pet areas could help get his rocky campaign back on track. Josh Butler
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/07/could-the-coalitions-spectacular-backdown-be-the-circuit-breaker-that-peter-dutton-needs

    ‘Carry on my legacy’: Pauline Hanson recruits daughter Lee for One Nation
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/carry-on-my-legacy-pauline-hanson-recruits-daughter-lee-for-one-nation-20250407-p5lpt5.html

    Handshake, strong words: first public face-off for Allegra Spender and Ro Knox after legal threat
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/handshake-strong-words-first-public-face-off-for-spender-and-knox-after-legal-threat-20250406-p5lpki.html

    Peter Dutton would ‘dictate’ what students are taught, education minister warns private school sector
    Exclusive: Opposition leader has ‘opened the doors’ to abolishing the department of education and cutting funding to schools, Jason Clare claims
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/07/education-minister-warns-peter-dutton-will-dictate-what-students-are-taught-ntwnfb

    Dutton playing ‘Donald Trump anti-migration card’ in plan to slash international students, higher education peak body says. The Coalition would retain Labor’s cap on the private sector but cut an extra 30,000 places at universities
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/08/dutton-playing-donald-trump-anti-migration-card-in-plan-to-slash-international-students-higher-education-peak-body-says

    Dutton’s student capping policy a chaotic plan. By Abul Rizvi
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/duttons-student-capping-policy-a-chaotic-plan,19604

    The government’s promise to slash the cost of household batteries should be welcomed – it could drive a change that benefits everyone who uses the power grid
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2025/apr/08/labor-cheaper-household-batteries-policy-power-grid-renewable-energy-price

    Under Relentless Israeli Bombing and Lacking Everything, a Gaza Hospital Is Triaging Genocide
    https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/al-aqsa-hospital-gaza-shortages-siege

    EU agonizes over using its trade ‘bazooka’ to hit back at Trump’s mega tariff
    The European Commission plans levies of up to 25 percent on many U.S. exports from the U.S. It still holds an olive branch in one hand and its Anti-Coercion Instrument in the other.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-trade-bazooka-anti-coercion-instrument-donald-trump-tariffs/

    EU offers Trump removal of all industrial tariffs. “Europe is always ready for a good deal,” says Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-offers-trump-removal-of-all-tariffs/

    Europe’s new war with Russia: Deep sea sabotage. Suspicious Russian tankers keep slashing Europe’s internet and power cables. It’s not an act of war … but someday it might be.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-sabotage-undersea-cables-baltic-sea-europe-war/

    Dutch ministers ramp up controls on weapons exports to Israel
    https://www.politico.eu/article/the-netherlands-will-control-arms-exports-to-israel-more-closely/

    Trump is on a quest to poison global political culture. Europe is at a turning point, where it can choose to reassert the ideals once pledged by the EU and confront the authoritarian brew emanating from U.S. If not now, when?
    https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-global-culture-political-oval-office-us-politics/

    The left-behind men who crave pride, battle shame – and voted for Trump
    https://theconversation.com/the-left-behind-men-who-crave-pride-battle-shame-and-voted-for-trump-247126

    Business Leaders Are Afraid to Tell Trump He’s Wrong, But Won’t Be Afraid to Cut Jobs and Raise Prices. Trump has squelched public dissent, but that won’t save him from business retrenchments that raise costs, kill jobs, and make him and his party unpopular.
    https://www.joshbarro.com/p/business-leaders-are-afraid-to-tell

    The secret of his success: Donald Trump’s six weird tricks for authoritarian rule. Historian Jennifer Mercieca decodes Trump’s “rhetorical genius” in her must-read book “Demagogue for President”
    https://www.salon.com/2020/07/04/the-secret-of-his-success-donald-trumps-six-weird-tricks-for-authoritarian-rule/

    RFK’s Anti-Vax Flock Turns on Him. RFK endorsed the MMR vaccine. His followers want to go MMA on him for it.
    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/rfks-anti-vax-flock-turns-on-him-mmr-measles-winsome-earle-sears

    John Roberts lifts midnight deadline for US to bring back man who was wrongly deported to El Salvador. The chief justice’s temporary order is intended to give the Supreme Court more time to consider next steps in the case.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/07/john-roberts-el-salvador-abrego-garcia-deported-00277261

    Thales announced on Monday that its semi-autonomous Sonar system platform has been integrated with US company Saildrone’s uncrewed vessels. Australian chief executive Jeff Connolly will also announce the newly developed technology was successfully tested by the US Navy in a 26-day deployment off the Californian coast. “The integration … paves the way for greater naval interoperability between AUKUS partners and delivers on AUKUS Pillar 2,” he said.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/one-sydney-factory-s-answer-to-foreign-interference-narco-subs-and-people-smugglers-20250406-p5lpjf.html

    Cartoon Time!

    Alan Moir

    Cathy Wilcox

    Dionne Gain

    First Dog On the Moon
    So you want to go to the USA? Are you sure? Here’s how to prepare your machines for Trumpistan

    Jon Tyson

    Ben Jennings on the price of a trade deal with the US

    From the Internet

    Enjoy!

  15. Socrates would you partake in dueling
    shouts of extra aged sparkling ale with me at the austral next time I’m in the city of barrels and bank vaults until one of us hits the lovely wooden floor of the ground level bar?.

    Yes I had Sturt long gone too.

    The dick of Dickson now has to worry more about his own domicile and those to the north and west of the sunny coast!

  16. Spence

    Yes I am a big skeptic of the Truro bypass. It will have some regional benefits in the Riverlands and offer freight a diversion route if the freeway is blocked.

    But most freight will not get off the South East Freeway to use it. There will be little or no change in traffic congestion on arterial roads in Adelaide. So its a waste IMO.

  17. Socrates

    Yep. There is going to be a re ordering of the global order.
    Countries are all taking this very seriously.
    Even if Trump paused or backed off on some tariffs. The damage is done.

    Markets and countries don’t like instability and uncertainty.

    The US are going to be isolated for a while.

    The truth will emerge as to the true rationale for this trade war.
    It isn’t going to be pretty for the US. Their day of reckoning is upon them.

    Whatayoudo.

  18. Soc,

    Jen Mercieca‬ ‪@jenmercieca.bsky.social‬

    Of course he’s making himself a birthday parade. “He claims American exceptionalism means “America winning” & that he’s the greatest example of American winning in American history. He likes to explain that he was born on Flag Day, which sort of makes him America itself”

  21. The delusional Trump thought that the world would bend the knee to him

    ——-
    NEW: The EU Commission has proposed 25% counter-tariffs on a range of U.S. imports to take effect May 16.

  22. Oh I do hope there’s a Trump military parade.

    Fun fact is that Washington D.C. is mostly built over canals dug through marshland that have been patched over by masonry over the 1800’s. There’s a reason you don’t see any skyscrapers in D.C., the land just can’t support them.

    A nice big parade with 65 ton tanks passing over them probably would make for a fascinating spectacle. The photographs of hundreds of armored vehicles trapped in potholes would probably be used for hundreds of years as a means of describing the Trump administration.

  23. In this Trump induced turmoil, Fund Managers will be transitioning out of Risk Assets, shortening their horizons to 3 months and repositioning to shorter term USA Bonds (so 2 years) where they see gains.

    The reason the horizon is reduced to 3 months is because of the prospect for further volatility – no one knowing when this turmoil will pass.

    In terms of where the value of funds under management are, yesterday on top of the week before has probably seen a 60/40 portfolio giving up any YTD gains, 9 months into the financial year, held up by the 40% in conservative settings so Bond Market exposures.

    And less than 4 weeks to Polling Day in Australia, noting the numbers voting prior to Polling Day.

    The Libs still well and truly on the back foot.

    The question not asked is that, if in government, would the Libs reverse policy decisions such as WFH OR would they just ram them thru Trump style regardless of community sentiment telling us to take our medicine?

    You can cop flack over policy but you have to consider where that flack is coming from (so vested interests and sectional or widespread community angst?)

    Meanwhile it appears the LNP is left with One Flag, nuclear energy, tax deductible lunches, taking money from superannuation accruals to buy a house (so compounding the losses!!!) and attacking “woke”, whatever that is.

    And being a supporter of Trump, “negotiating” with him!!!!!

    On the golf course no doubt.

  28. Kirsdrake – I think the real reason you don’t see sky scrapers in Washington DC is the 1910 Height of Buildings act limiting buildings to 130 feet. Congress didn’t want tall buildings.

    They have at times had military parades but without equipment. Post World War one there was one.

  29. Vet ya candidates libs!

    Federal Labor does have USA connections they go to McDonald’s sometimes.

    Wake up to another good day of Trump with Iran talking to USA even though it swears it would not,Trump even threatening them on top,EU wants reciprocal tariff and they put tariff deadline way off and China getting a Easter gift tomorrow a nice one from USA another 50% tariff.

    And 70 Countries want to talk to Trump about reducing their tariffs.Bessent US trade secretary speaking on Fox News.Japan is negotiating.

    All is good!

  30. William Bowe commentary: The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column characterises Britton’s dumping as “the final nail in the coffin for the Trump-loving faction of the NSW Liberals, associated with Matt Camenzuli … now running as an independent against Labor’s Chris Bowen in McMahon”.

    Me: You can never hit “the final nail in the coffin let alone close to coffin for the Trump-loving faction of the Liberals across the country let alone NSW Liberals as long as Trump-loving Dutton is the leader of the Federal Liberal party. The Trump-loving faction of Liberals overwhelminglydominates the Liberal party across the country. No exceptions. They are crazy as crazy can be.
    What you see here is media aka SMH ‘sane washing ‘ attributes of Dutton’s Liberals.

  31. Scottsays:
    Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 7:29 am

    Not only in Victoria but across majority of states

    Political and voting evidence shows there is no mythical swing to the Liberal party from Labor or non lib/nats candidates

    Dutton and his ridiculous suite of on/off policy positions is doing only one thing, driving voters to the other alternatives which will only advantage the Labor campaign.
    It very hard for the diehard 29% of rusted on Liberals to accept that they have a dud leader and a dud plan, following on from the last disgraced., belligerent, dishonest Morrison and his dud ministry, many of the disgraced ministry are still hanging around.
    Australians, despite the efforts of a lopsided dead tree sunset media cohort and a innate reluctance to engage in the political treadmill, are not at all keen to install another ” brain-dead idiot” as PM.
    Dutton at this stage is no chance.
    Dutton wasn’t trusted by his police colleagues and is not trusted by enough voters.
    Does anyone seriously think a Sky news debate will enlighten the voting public as to “superior” brilliance of Dutton ?

    Dutton is a steam train, navigating the old zigzag railway, has the support of a bevy of media identities and business wannabes pushing their engines from behind the steam train and its stale coal carrying alternative ministry, and they still can’t get the troglodyte Dutton to keep the Liberal’s political train on the rails.

    Where are all the “known it all” gambling fraternity, all over PB a few weeks ago, now that the odds of a majority Labor government are shorter than a LNP minority government !?
    The sooner this “charade” is over and done with the better.
    Labor can get on with dealing with “the art of the deal” snake oil salesmen, masquerading as a US president.

  32. brucemainstreamsays:
    Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 7:29 am
    If you have an LG smart tv, you can watch sky news on the “LG Channels” app without a subscription. A fact I recently learned

    Same goes for my Samsung Smart TV.

    Not that I ever avail myself of the ‘freedom’ to watch Sky News. Just maybe once tonight.

  33. Wall street stemmed the bleeding yesterday and the ASX futures is looking at a 1% gain. Many in their mid 60’s are down a hundred thousand with no surety that it will return quickly, this occured on the back of what could happen, what happens if it does.

  34. Thanks, Vic. Usual problem, what to leave out? I also like to choose a topic and give a smorgasbord of expert opinions about it, as I’ve done today with the Trump Tariffs. I can’t be accused of being biased then. 😉

  35. ”
    Luigi Smithsays:
    Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 6:32 am
    The NYSE fell about 4% on Friday and another 1% Monday. Tesla fell 9% on Friday and 2% Monday. World markets have fallen to follow Friday’s NYSE fall, so we should see another fall today to match the NYSE.

    We shouldn’t wish ill on the American public. But it’s only they who can defeat Trump.
    ”

    Yeah sure Luigi. We should not wish ill of any people let alone American public.
    But the thing is American public voted for Trump 2.0 knowing who he is and knowing what he said he will do.
    Seeing my (an Australian )hard earned Superannuation and Allocated pension funds getting wiped out because of Trump’s actions, who was voted by American public, I cannot be sanguine about American public. You see I am not a saint or a Gandhi.
    The world has become ‘collateral damage’ to Trump’s stupidity and American public are fully responsible for that. No ifs and no buts. Make no mistake about that.

  36. Boerwar

    I think you are being to negative. Labor governments have shown they are able to deal with crisis and to restructure the economy when needed. We are lucky if trump had done this in two months time we might have had a Liberal government and they have shown themselves to be absolutely incompetent when change is required.

    There are big risks for sure, China might decide now is time to invade Taiwan. That would close down trade with China instantly, pretty much destroy high end chip manufacturing and bring the energy transition to a crashing stop. I hope they are not that stupid.

  39. Managing USA Finances…

    Bessent – billionaire
    Trump- billionaire
    Musk – billionaire

    Trump has been known to cut deals over decades they tend to screw the people he deals with so that’s good because USA will get even stronger.

    Borders secure,Fentanyl crisis over,Doge cutting waste,budgets repairing,scum Iran and China and Venezuela being dealt with Houthis getting bombed,Hamas under fire and illegals being arrested ,deported and jailed if they are murderers and rapists etc.

    Winning!

    EU is now offering zero to zero tariffs!

  40. Sky is far closer to mainstream Australia than the Guardian is and except for a couple of after dark programs the ABC. Tingle has given up on any pretence of impartiality and I still don’t understand how the ABC can justify Adams and now Marr on Late Night Live.

  43. ”
    leftieBrawlersays:
    Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 7:37 am
    Andy you know you love Lars, almost as much as you love c@t.

    The day that you and LVT meet in real life will reminiscent of the final scene in sleepless in Seattle.

    Thanks Mr Bowe for the silly old Roy Morgan breakdown.

    Why do the bludgers keep going on about Gilmore still being a ‘likely liberal gain’??.

    As silly old Roy Morgan and News et al are demonstrating that horse has already bolted for Dutton. They now hav to try and sandbag their own marginals to save furniture- not waste money trying to go in the offensive your gilmores, Robertsons, bennelongs, dobells, hunters and the outer suburban sets.

    Lars was working as a waitress in a cocktail bar when he met Andy
    ”

    So Lars is Sonia Gandhi? 🙂

  44. Cat

    Thanks for the outstanding roundup. A lot of bad news around the world but Australia has comparatively been hurt a lot less than other countries.

    LeftieBrawler

    I’m not really a drink-you-under-the-table kind of guy, but if you are visiting Adelaide I’d gladly meet for a few glasses of wine.

    In fact is there any interest in have an SA bludgers get together after the election?

    Have a good day all.

  45. The EU is only offering zero to zero tariffs on manufactured goods. The EU exports a lot more manufactured goods to the USA then the other way around. So it was relatively easy for them to offer that.
    The US wants access for agricultural products. That is one area where the EU is probably not going move much.

  48. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-moment-peter-dutton-knew-his-work-from-home-plan-was-dead-20250407-p5lpp3.html

    Comments on this running 327 to 1 against Dutton.

    This one, from Hobbit46 is typical:
    _________________________
    So the LNP have had 3 years in opposition to develop and test a range of policies.

    Nuclear doesn’t get a mention any more.

    Tax payer subsidised lunches for bosses. No costings attached but seems to have been announced just before Dutton abandoned his electorate ahead of a cyclone to have a fund raiser at the harbourside mansion of a billionaire who owns a huge hospitality empire!

    Sack 41,000 public servants immediately but no details of which ones are which departments they will be sacked from. Ummm… actually we won’t sack them now, we will just not replace any who leave over 5 years.

    No more work from home for the public servants who are left doing all the work! Ladies, if you don’t like, just job share, A.K.A. wage share. You bunch of lazy do nothing public servants need to be watched all day to make sure you are actually working! What’s that? Everyone hates the policy? Uuummmm……sorry, scrap that. It’s all Labor’s fault we screwed up our own policy! How dare they repeat what we said trying to scare everyone! WAAAAAA, WAAAAA! How could Labor do this to us!

    Gas, gas and more gas! But no details on how or where the gas will come from or how it will be burned, let alone any details on costs.

    Any Labor policies announced are quickly followed by a shouting of “we will do that to”! But again, no costings from Dutton on how he will fund all of these as well as his massively expensive and fully taxpayer funded nuclear brain fart (that we don’t speak about any more).

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