The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s headline two-party lead out from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5, in a result otherwise distinguished by a two-point drop in the Coalition primary vote to 33%, its weakest result in the series since June 2023. Labor, the Greens and One Nation are all up half a point, to 32.5%, 13.5% and 6% respectively, with independents down one-and-a-half to 9% and others up two to 6% (from which are told the Trumpet of Patriots component provides 1.5%). The two-party measure based on 2022 election flows has Labor’s lead out from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1481.
Other developments:
• The Liberal Party has dumped its candidate for the Illawarra seat of Whitlam, Benjamin Britton, and replaced him with Nathaniel Smith, who held the state seat of Wollondilly from 2019 until his defeat by independent Judy Hannan in 2023. At issue was Britton’s record as a commentator on right-wing podcasts, specifically his view that women should be removed from combat roles in the military. The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column characterises Britton’s dumping as “the final nail in the coffin for the Trump-loving faction of the NSW Liberals, associated with Matt Camenzuli … now running as an independent against Labor’s Chris Bowen in McMahon”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Scott Yung, the Liberal candidate for Bennelong, warmly addressed Xie Xiongming, a “casino high-roller linked to the Chinese Communist Party”, at a Lunar New Year event in January after previously claiming no association with him. Last week it was reported Yung failed to disclose his engagement of a digital marketing agency to target Chinese language websites during his campaign for the state seat of Kogarah in 2019. In March, it was reported that Yung boasted on his candidate nomination form of having raised $60,000 through a fundraiser during his 2019 campaign, despite no disclosure to that effect having been lodged.
• The two leaders will participate in a “people’s forum” from 7:30pm this evening, conducted in western Sydney by Sky News and the Daily Telegraph. Some measure of determining a winner will be employed, presumably involving the verdict of a panel of swinging voters. The ABC will host a debate at 8pm next Wednesday, to be moderated by Insiders host David Speers.
• Both parties will conduct campaign launches on Sunday, Labor’s being held for the second successive election in Perth, emphasising Western Australia’s importance in the government’s calculations. The location of the Liberal launch is yet to be disclosed.
Duttonism was so obviously unfit the Reactionaries pulled it before the end of the first quarter. The big note – imaginary electricity and gas – has not been heard of in play at all.
This must be the first Federal election since Federation in which a headline competitor has attempted to win votes with no policies whatsoever.
Remarkable arrogance on their part.
Their main ploy is attempted concealment of their attachment to a foreign power.
Quentin 10:12
I agree. At this stage Albo is ahead and Labor has got better policies in play to deal with cost of living. If this goes on Labor at least keeps minority government.
So really the objective for Albo tonight was not to give any opening for Dutton to weaken his campaign in future. He did that. So job done.
Re Wayne
Last federal election, wasn’t there some git who’d post short “Our glorious coalition will increase its majority” sort of stuff on a regular basis? Can’t remember the name. Is Wayne that person?
leftieBrawler – The entomology of England is less interesting after the local extinction of the apple humble-bee.
I’m sure the Libs would love to hammer home the cut in student visa numbers and immigration overall and thread it in to the COL theme that had worked
So well for them until 3 weeks ago.
The problem for Dutton and his rabble the know it would be too risky due to the retort of Labor ‘but you teamed up with the greens, the greens, the greens to prevent legislating the cut when it was most needed.
Its quite stunning to see just how many traditional LNP core pillars have been pissed up the wall like opposing tax cuts, working with the greens to increase migration- but lock step with Labor in areas like Medicare etc.
Entropy at 10.11 pm
No. Lars always said Labor would win. He pinned his hopes entirely, and with little basis, on a minority Labor government falling over fairly soon.
The shift in the polls from a Labor minority to majority will deflate him.
But as a jolly chap he will focus on the silver lining. Ms Spender will win with an increased majority and there is a chance of a record low combined major parties’ primary, ironically because of Dutton reducing Lib vote.
@Quentin Rountree
Well said your right in what you are saying
The only pro Labor regular on Sky News is Joe Hidebrand, the rest are Dutton cheerleaders, so any claims of impartiality from Andrew Clennell or Laura Jayes are ridiculous. It is hilarious actually their undecided voting panel awarded the debate win to Albo. Paul Murray and Bronwyn Bishop and Michael Kroger would have been livid.
I suspect Dutton will do badly in a more traditional debate format next week, moderated by David Speers, who is not a Liberal cheerleader.
SMH says the Audience gave the win to Albo…..
Poor old Joe H.
Ended up the arse end out of the industry going from a mid-morning women’s gossip hour to sky news Australia frequent contributor
Quentin I’m clearly easy prey for trolls. I agree with you that Labor is likely to return to govt close to, or in majority.
I think Dutton did ok in the sense he at least tried to focus the debate more on the cost of living than before but this should have been the focus from the start. I don’t think people think he genuinely cares anyway.
Labor should keep going to Sky – “enemy” territory or not any person aspiring to national leadership should be able to appear anywhere. Only Greens and independents argue for their special fiefdoms and scoff at Albo visiting them.
Remember Bernie Sanders killed it in his Fox News “people’s forum”.
Hack, woke, Partisan at 10.16 pm
No. Howard won in 1996 sans policies.
The SMH cartoonist Moir ridiculed him for not revealing his policy on spin bowling.
It was one reason why Howard was a shambles for all of his first term. He reverted to his GST as his salvation.
Remember, if Australia had the type of proportional system common in Europe Howard would have lost in 1998, ending up 1-2 instead of 4-2.
From Albo’s self-interested view the resurrection of Howard was always a positive omen for his own recovery.
Bro how did Dutton lose a debate on Sky News? Surely this is embarassing for the Liberals
Democracy Sausage @ #756 Tuesday, April 8th, 2025 – 10:20 pm
I’m not entirely sure Joe Hildebrand fits in as “pro-Labor” after writing this article after they lost the 2019 election.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/joe-hildebrand-why-the-election-loss-is-a-win-for-australia-and-labor/news-story/cda92d435693a87e031a07882fa6891d
If the country refused to chuck out Howard against a very reasonable and credible Beazley they were never going to do the same this time round. Dutton is no Beazley.
”
Ovechkinsays:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 9:55 pm
If this election campaign was a grand final it’s rapidly starting to feel like one of the forgettable ones where one team takes control of the game early and the other side looks overwhelmed by the occasion.
”
Does it look like one of the Grand finalist is Sydney swans? 🙁
Kim Beazley was definitely PM material, Howard was a formidable opponent though. Dutton likes doing the strongman act but like his idols it’s really just a sign that deep down he is weak and insecure and not capable of the role. Bullies are not strong people. They’re overcompensating.
GetUp attack ad on Peter Dutton:
https://youtu.be/7SImAGNe0a4?si=z6a-qSGZLv-ZBBz1
I often wonder how many of the SAD commentators put a 1 in the box for Labor in the privacy of the voting booth? 🙂
mj,
100%. Real men know how to express vulnerability, empathy and their softer side publicly.
”
BSA Bobsays:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 10:16 pm
Re Wayne
Last federal election, wasn’t there some git who’d post short “Our glorious coalition will increase its majority” sort of stuff on a regular basis? Can’t remember the name. Is Wayne that person?
”
Yes Bob
Yes…Ima hoping the Reactionary PV declines to around 30% or less – maybe 25% – reflecting their value as a heritage political relic. As they gradually pass away, to ascend to an upper house in the sky, their remains could be embalmed and put on exhibition somewhere…perhaps in attic at The Melbourne Club. Or with the fossilised dinosaurs at the Natural History museum.
C@tmomma @ #768 Tuesday, April 8th, 2025 – 10:41 pm
Honestly it’d probably be in the single digits. I think the ability to lie that constantly and eagerly for the benefit of Murdoch and the LNP’s interests and yet still vote Labor would shred most human minds asunder.
Beazley was very unlucky and would have made a great pre-media cycle PM.
Like Stuart McGill he was unlucky to be caught up in an era of a team full of once in a lifetime talents.
He had Hawke in his golden days and then the mastery of the then the operational superiority of the NSW Right machine and identities to contend with. Back before ‘NSW Right’ was a dirty word ruined by the terrigals and the swarthy mafia it was considered the proving ground of the National agenda. Unrelenting and soberly effective and efficient types like Wran and Richo who were smoothing the pathway for Keating and the rest is history.
Keating’s ascent was like an incoming king tide, first Bob Hawke was caught up in it and then the opposition. Poor old bomber never had a chance- instated inheriting the husk of a caucus that had ended up on 49 seats in the house after march 1996 compared to the 81 or so before it.
Quentin Rountree at 10.14 pm
Dutton is toast, albeit inedible (burnt). We don’t need Mundo to see it. The smell is just bleeding obvious.
Generally events early in a week set the pattern, unless there is a scandal.
Tactically the Libs have failed badly, as N. Savva stressed. They have lost the first two weeks, and not only because Trump has become an ogre.
After this week there’s only a short week to go before Easter, with a bigger debate on Wed next week. Dutton is unlikely to do better then. So he will probably head into Easter having lost the first 3 weeks badly.
While the journos are pretending to be neutral, the obvious disparity in performance will be discussed by them. Reporting now has to try to be visually interesting, not just dry.
E.g. ABC reporter Jane Newman, who has not been unkind to Libs even in the recent past, last night ridiculed Dutton by showing him climbing down from his position in a petrol tanker type of vehicle, in the context of his axing his policy against WFH.
The more images of Dutton there are at a petrol station the more likely that voters will conclude he has spent the whole campaign offering nothing more than in his speech on 27 March.
Apart from Albo’s performance being better than in 2022, there are two basic obstacles for Dutton. First, without policies beyond the petrol gimmick, he has very narrow rhetoric.
Second, Trump by association works against his inclinations, and reduces the space for Dutton to campaign in.
The polls are already clear enough. No real prospect of a Lib minority. Basic reason is poor campaign plus Teals.
Wayne did predict 2019 correctly….
Dr Doolittle says:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 10:28 pm
Hack, woke, Partisan at 10.16 pm
No. Howard won in 1996 sans policies.
The SMH cartoonist Moir ridiculed him for not revealing his policy on spin bowling.
Tru dat.
1996…year of the baseball bat. No bats to be seen this year.
”
leftieBrawlersays:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 10:19 pm
I’m sure the Libs would love to hammer home the cut in student visa numbers and immigration overall and thread it in to the COL theme that had worked
So well for them until 3 weeks ago.
The problem for Dutton and his rabble the know it would be too risky due to the retort of Labor ‘but you teamed up with the greens, the greens, the greens to prevent legislating the cut when it was most needed.
Its quite stunning to see just how many traditional LNP core pillars have been pissed up the wall like opposing tax cuts, working with the greens to increase migration- but lock step with Labor in areas like Medicare etc.
”
Come to think of it Leftie, other than the Albo zinger to lighten up the proceedings, the other telling point of this debate was that Albanese proved Dutton is a phoney regarding cutting student numbers by pointing to the fact that Dutton LNP and Greens voted against reduction in student number legislation.
Another thing is that as Kirsdarke pointed Albanese looked relaxed and and Dutton looked like he was controlling his fury just under surface.
The thing is people aka audience can feel the vibes.
Yes, Sky after dark viewers voted 80-20 in favour of Dutton. We must understand that overwhelming viewers of Sky after dark are LNP voters.
I appreciate Paul A fronting up on PB for this debate.
All the LNP warriors just did not participate. I am bit surprised about that.
Actually I think BW was pretty balanced about his comments. He tried to be as impartial as he can be. I am bit surprised the likes of nath, P1, Pegasus, nadia and Rex did not say anything about the debate.
”
Bludgeoned Westiesays:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 10:31 pm
Bro how did Dutton lose a debate on Sky News? Surely this is embarassing for the Liberals
”
Bludgeoned W
I think he lost it because he did not have any policies
Hence he has nothing to offer to the public. Actually, he talked better than I expected.
Is hack woke partisan LVT??
Lars on occasion uses ‘true dat’
Bludgeoned Westie at 10.31 pm
You should update your guesses. No shortage of material to work from.
E.g. SMH yesterday Lib candidate for Bennelong exposed as having lied about his links to Chinese CP fronts, or at least billionaires linked to them.
That works against Libs in a seat they should win easily, while generally Dutton’s anti-China rhetoric works to diminish Lib vote in key seats such as Chisholm in Melbourne + Bradfield.
leftieBrawler says:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 11:01 pm
Is Jake, woke partisan LVT??
Assuredly, Larseny is not my thing. I believe he’s from NSW, whereas I am from the Great State of Western Australia.
We bludge on different sides of the aisle.
Dr Doolittle yeah the First two weeks of the campaign sets the tone the problem with the reset for Peter is that he needed to have the reset within days of the campaign not a couple of weeks and with Anthony winning the debate of the audience I would not be surprised if it’s Status Quo election Anthony has to do something really stupid to lose
”
Dr Doolittlesays:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 11:03 pm
Bludgeoned Westie at 10.31 pm
You should update your guesses. No shortage of material to work from.
E.g. SMH yesterday Lib candidate for Bennelong exposed as having lied about his links to Chinese CP fronts, or at least billionaires linked to them.
That works against Libs in a seat they should win easily, while generally Dutton’s anti-China rhetoric works to diminish Lib vote in key seats such as Chisholm in Melbourne + Bradfield.
”
Dr. D
I think that Chinese heritage voters should be more anti to Dutton when compared to Morrison because Dutton did not say anything positive about Chinese origin Australians.
IMO, he distrusts people from ME(other than Israel), China.
The rhetoric of Dutton on Chinese navy ships circumnavigating Australia especially after he knows that Australian Navy does that near China. Do you think Chinese origin Australians won’t notice that.
The debate taboo subject, Trump tariffs and treatment of “friends”!
@Dr Doolittlesays: Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 11:03 pm
You should update your guesses. No shortage of material to work from
~~~~~~~
I definitely will, I’m planning to post my Mid-Election Campaign prediction next Saturday or Sunday and I’ve already got an idea of which seats whose status I will be changing.
I’ve yet to finalise the prediction nor have I written any of my justifications for my proposed changes. I might also do an add on prediction running on the assumption that Independents will gain seats.
Also there will be a tribute to c@t in the next prediction. Ik she’s a big fan of my magic spells; her favourite one is Backyardium Robertsona
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 7:21 pm
The 3 Whitlam candidates:
”
I think Labor and Nats will be the final 2 contenders for 2PP.
I don’t think it will be a easy seat for Labor to win.
Bowser attendant for PM seems unlikely to elicit the votes necessary to change govt. It’s really a very amateurish campaign. I think in the coming decades Labor is going to become something like the Canadian Liberal party in being a fairly centrist “natural” party of government though usually in a minority position with the support of independents and/or Greens etc. The LNP is detached and going in a direction that the majority of people don’t agree with it’s a losing long term strategy to prioritise sucking up to billionaires particularly as we’re all seeing what’s going down in the USA.
Ven at 11.16 pm
Of course Chinese Australians will notice that, including the beat up about the Chinese ships down south.
Remember what M. McGowan said about Dutton – he is not that bright.
Dutton has a Bachelor of Business and nothing more. The obvious contrast is with another QLD copper from an earlier period, namely Bill Hayden.
Hayden applied himself at night school and became LOTO in a much stronger Opposition through merit.
Dutton is there ultimately because Corman could not count in Aug 2018.
As for the Chinese Australian vote, it was a factor noted by the Lib internal review of their 2022 loss. Yet repeated.
Meanwhile, perhaps you may know if Indian Australians would be more likely to believe Dutton than the Whats-App crowd linked to China. I doubt it. They voted against Roshena Campbell in the Aston by-election.
Dutton still looks 2 weeks off being match fit generally for this campaign .Back flipping on WFH and cutting public service jobs mid campaign fed the perception he’s got nothing to offer the electorate beyond cheaper petrol for a few months in the SKY debate IMHO. He is struggling .
Ovechkin at 9.55 pm
Two further points discounting your analogy.
First, and most importantly, an election is not comparable to a game.
Consequences of loss are much worse than disappointment or public shame.
Look at the USA for the obvious case.
Second, if professional politicians stuff up this can be entertaining for armchair amateurs, much more so than a close race going down to wire.
Antony Green deserves an easy call.
From what I heard and semi-watched from the debate, Dutton’s weak spot really is his Nuclear plan. He was reduced to bare-faced lying about the numbers, but of course since he’s taking his orders from Big Gina, he can’t as easily dodge away from those policies as he was able to do so with his abolition of Working from Home policies.
Dutton led Liberals won’t be attractive at all in seats with large Asian migrant populations particularly long-standing communities that remember when he was Minister for Immigration. Tangney is one of the seats which will probably stay with Labor because of this.
Kirs honestly hearing reports about the debate it looks like a liberal sycophant and was neutral you say Anthony did a great job and also the I generally don’t think Peter is going to win he waited too long for the flip from working from home honestly his campaign is atrocious anthonys is good like he seems to announce a new policy each day
”
Elmer Fuddsays:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 11:35 pm
Dutton still looks 2 weeks off being match fit generally for this campaign and back flipping on WFH and cutting public service jobs mid campaign fed the perception he’s got nothing to offer the electorate beyond cheaper petrol for a few months in the SKY debate IMHO. He is struggling
”
The thing about Dutton petrol Bowser stunt is that he already repeated it 5 times. That stunt is stale.
People don’t see him say or do anything else.
Morrison was a stunt master par excellence. He did a different stunt each and every day.
Dutton can’t do it because he has nothing else and narrowly casted.
The Murdoch rags and tv has to understand that Australian public(and that includes lot of Liberals) are furious with Trump
As I repeatedly said that there are quite a few good Liberal voters, who care for Australia. But there are no good Republicans. They are bad, ugly and evil Republicans.
If there are good Republicans we won’t have this Tariffs carnage in the first place.
The US Congress can stop this Tariffs madness but they won’t because there are no good Republicans.
Ven says Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 10:59 pm
Despite what people might think, Dutton isn’t a bad public speaker and markedly superior to Albanese in that regard. It’s just the rest of the Dutton package that is of concern.
bc at 11.52 pm
If you want a robo-didactic ultra fast presentation of overly rehearsed and repetitive mush, Dutton is your man.
If you want thought behind the words and feeling and a whiff of vision with a broad perspective, look elsewhere.
https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:fbboovieoovb7au3nlexmcal/post/3lltkjov4vc24?ref_src=embed&ref_url=https%253A%252F%252Fwww.dailykos.com%252Fstories%252F2025%252F4%252F8%252F2315271%252F-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-Hubris