The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s headline two-party lead out from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5, in a result otherwise distinguished by a two-point drop in the Coalition primary vote to 33%, its weakest result in the series since June 2023. Labor, the Greens and One Nation are all up half a point, to 32.5%, 13.5% and 6% respectively, with independents down one-and-a-half to 9% and others up two to 6% (from which are told the Trumpet of Patriots component provides 1.5%). The two-party measure based on 2022 election flows has Labor’s lead out from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1481.
Other developments:
• The Liberal Party has dumped its candidate for the Illawarra seat of Whitlam, Benjamin Britton, and replaced him with Nathaniel Smith, who held the state seat of Wollondilly from 2019 until his defeat by independent Judy Hannan in 2023. At issue was Britton’s record as a commentator on right-wing podcasts, specifically his view that women should be removed from combat roles in the military. The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column characterises Britton’s dumping as “the final nail in the coffin for the Trump-loving faction of the NSW Liberals, associated with Matt Camenzuli … now running as an independent against Labor’s Chris Bowen in McMahon”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Scott Yung, the Liberal candidate for Bennelong, warmly addressed Xie Xiongming, a “casino high-roller linked to the Chinese Communist Party”, at a Lunar New Year event in January after previously claiming no association with him. Last week it was reported Yung failed to disclose his engagement of a digital marketing agency to target Chinese language websites during his campaign for the state seat of Kogarah in 2019. In March, it was reported that Yung boasted on his candidate nomination form of having raised $60,000 through a fundraiser during his 2019 campaign, despite no disclosure to that effect having been lodged.
• The two leaders will participate in a “people’s forum” from 7:30pm this evening, conducted in western Sydney by Sky News and the Daily Telegraph. Some measure of determining a winner will be employed, presumably involving the verdict of a panel of swinging voters. The ABC will host a debate at 8pm next Wednesday, to be moderated by Insiders host David Speers.
• Both parties will conduct campaign launches on Sunday, Labor’s being held for the second successive election in Perth, emphasising Western Australia’s importance in the government’s calculations. The location of the Liberal launch is yet to be disclosed.
From The Guardian
BlackRock CEO says US ‘probably in a recession’
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said at an event this afternoon that most CEOs he talks to “would say we are probably in a recession now”.
Fink said one CEO said the airline industry – which cut 2025 forecasts due to falling demand – tends to be a canary in the coal mine for a recession. He also said that he’s concerned about elevated inflation.
A recession is technically when gross domestic product (GDP) goes down for two consecutive quarters, but is generally used to describe a major contraction in the economy.
It’s taken Trump less than 3 months to bring on a recession in an economy that had hitherto been growing quite firmly. He is an absolute imbecile. Tens of millions of ordinary people will suffer unnecessarily because of his arrogance and his stupidity.
The gathering recession in the US will be mirrored elsewhere…in Canada, in Europe, in South East Asia, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan and India. Perhaps we will avoid the same here.
Our local Reactionaries – petite clones of Trump – deserve to be electorally obliterated.
“ The location of the Liberal launch is yet to be disclosed”
Heard that it will be held at the local “flip flop” shop…
I’ll leave now.
Cannot believe how disorganized and chaotic and seemingly unprepared the Coalition is for this election! I think as people take a closer look at Dutton and his lack of policies and incoherent messaging they are moving away. With 2 weeks till pre-polling I can’t see how the Libs can turn this around.
Has L’twit surfaced from the mental health break he always takes when things are looking up for labor, especially Albo?
Surely Nadia’s pollyanna ‘analysis’ (T’is but a flesh wound) of the polling zeitgeist last night would have perked him up?
Beware Black Swan events. That’s all I’m saying. Though it can apply to both sides of politics, so there’s that. 😉
Of the two, I thought Mexicanbeemer’s analysis of the ‘7 Victorian seats’ that nadia88 thinks the Liberals will win was more realistic.
HWP,
Tens of millions of ordinary people will suffer unnecessarily because of THEIR arrogance and stupidity.
They voted the prick in! (Or abstained from voting).
For Dutton another black swan is taking flight. Trump will double his tariffs on China on Wednesday. He has declared war on our main trading partner.
Considering the abysmal standing of the Reactionaries with China, For Dutton this should be the end.
He is completely out if his depth. Ideology will not save him. Rather, it will hasten his electoral demise.
Leader says:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 6:13 am
HWP,
Tens of millions of ordinary people will suffer unnecessarily because of THEIR arrogance and stupidity.
They voted the prick in! (Or abstained from voting).
Yes, for sure. However I was thinking
Of the great many who did not vote for him who will suffer too…. Of the very great numbers of working people all over the world who will experience hardship because of the incompetence, stupidity and arrogance of Trump and his followers.
The NYSE fell about 4% on Friday and another 1% Monday. Tesla fell 9% on Friday and 2% Monday. World markets have fallen to follow Friday’s NYSE fall, so we should see another fall today to match the NYSE.
We shouldn’t wish ill on the American public. But it’s only they who can defeat Trump. Economic or military suffering elsewhere in the world means nothing. So we probably need a bigger correction in America this week and a bit more economic woe for them.
https://au.pcmag.com/networking/110465/gamers-troll-elon-musk-during-path-of-exile-2-live-stream, …
Luigi Smith says:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 6:32 am
The rest of the world will have to find ways to respond to Trump that will enable them to cope even as America writhes.
Notahorse says:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 6:02 am
Cannot believe how disorganized and chaotic and seemingly unprepared the Coalition is for this election!
The Reactionaries think that by campaigning to each other they will win. They are really utterly estranged from the broader community.
They are ideologues. For them, purity is enough. They really fail to notice that 2/3 Australians profoundly disagree with them.
Anthony Scaramucci view, hang up the phone let this ride out, Trump is going to be forced down.
Dutton’s view, crawl to Trump on and and knees.
Australia’s view seems to be closer to Scaramuccis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFh4s6iXwYA
Anthony Scaramucci view’s, through the Rest is Politics (US), have been entertaining but not reliable.
Shellbell
His basic view was trump would cause the US a lot of pain. How is that wrong?
Are you in support of Dutton going to Trump on his hands and knees?
Can Dutton get an appointment ahead of the penguins?
Requires a subscription to watch
Although I do have a 6 month free Binge subscription- which includes SkyFoxNews. Provided as part of my Kayo subscription, required to watch sport.
I know the neocons and neolibs will hate me saying this but Australia should pursue a closer trading relationship with China and other Asian countries in the wake of Trump’s tarrifs.
SkyFoxNews promo spin..
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will lay out their competing visions for Australia at the Sky News People’s Forum on Tuesday.
Skynews.com.au will stream the debate live from 7.30pm AEST, with the result revealed during Paul Murray Live at 9pm.
The Sky News/Daily Telegraph People’s Forum, broadcast live from Western Sydney, is expected to be a pivotal moment in the race to the election.
Mr Dutton will be looking to reassert his economic credentials and reconnect with voters concerned about the high cost of living and stagnant wages.
Mr Albanese will hope to control the narrative and argue that Australians will be worse off under the Coalition.
Who can forget the ‘Rorted Hill’ SkyFoxNews event at the Rooty Hill RSL, where a congaline of Liberal plants ambushed Julia Gillard in her ‘debate’ with Tony Abbott.
I suspect Albo will be ready.
Morning all. I’m sure that US CEO Andrew Earlwood quoted is correct – USA is already in recession or soon will be.
IMO the damage Trump has done to confidence in investment in USA means that USA will stay recessed or stagnant for the rest of his term. Trump won’t admit error. By the time Trump is gone USA will no longer be globally dominant in finance.
The rest of the world will need to respond. Rearranging trade will take months or even years but should start ASAP.
Stimulating domestic demand GFC – style will help too. So would effective ends to a bunch of conflicts. I don’t think Trump will help much with that either.
We should forget about increasing defence spending. It is inefficient at job creation unless the equipment is made locally. Focus on local self defense as per Roggaveen’s Echidna Strategy. That means lots of cheaper missiles and fewer costly UK frigates and nuclear subs. Build Strikemasters and LSTs not SSNs.
Two of the most effective ways to employ people by government spending are health and education. Road building is increasingly mechanised. Public transport employs more people than road building .
And there has never been a better time to build public housing.
”
steve davissays:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 1:27 am
Trump just getting more stupid. If China doesnt drop their 34% tariff on the US, Trump will impose an additional 50% tariff on top by April 9th. That will be 104% tariffs on China.
He wont win against China thats for sure.
”
Trump wants to impose over 100% Tarrifs on China, the second largest economy in the world all the while imposing no Tariffs on Russia, Russia, Russia
So Trump has dialled up crazy and stupidity to eleventy.
Not only in Victoria but across majority of states
Political and voting evidence shows there is no mythical swing to the Liberal party from Labor or non lib/nats candidates
In Victoria , the federal Liberal party are likely to lose more seats than Labor, there are more 53/47% and under
Most of Labor seats are above 54/46%
The Labor seats which are under threat are below 54/46
Seat of Aston
Aston by-election
with no one nation or Palmer united party running
Federal liberal party primary vote was 39.1% ,
The federal liberal party candidate primary vote likely struggle to get to 43%+, due to one nation and Palmer party candidates running and weak 2pp – Labor chance of holding
Dunkley
Dunkley by-election
Same as Aston with no one nation or Palmer united party running
Federal liberal party primary vote was 39.2% ,
2022 federal election , when one nation and Palmer party candidates were running. the federal liberal party primary vote was 32.5%
expect the federal liberal party candidate primary vote will not get to 43%+, due to one nation and Palmer party candidates running and weak 2pp – Labor hold
McEwen
Federal Labor party candidate primary vote 36.81%
Federal Liberal party candidate primary vote 33.22%
Both candidates had swings against them
Labor hold
If you have an LG smart tv, you can watch sky news on the “LG Channels” app without a subscription. A fact I recently learned
sprocket_ says:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 7:20 am
Requires a subscription to watch
_______
This is antithetical to democracy. Aristotle would be happy.
So now of course Trump is considering bombing Iran….
Dutton wants us to use our reserves without the gas companies paying royalty.
The Australian gas companies need more free gas to cover their increased international contracts.
Australian Gas is cheaper, I wonder why?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d05y-8wVQLQ
”
Leadersays:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 6:13 am
HWP,
Tens of millions of ordinary people will suffer unnecessarily because of THEIR arrogance and stupidity.
They voted the prick in! (Or abstained from voting).
”
Leader
Not millions but billions will unnecessarily suffer.
People in other countries faced consequences for American people/ leaders actions till now. Now, Americans will be included. That is the only difference.
A debate organised by Sky News and the Daily Telegraph? Might as well hold the debate in Liberal Party headquarters.
Andy you know you love Lars, almost as much as you love c@t.
The day that you and LVT meet in real life will reminiscent of the final scene in sleepless in Seattle.
Thanks Mr Bowe for the silly old Roy Morgan breakdown.
Why do the bludgers keep going on about Gilmore still being a ‘likely liberal gain’??.
As silly old Roy Morgan and News et al are demonstrating that horse has already bolted for Dutton. They now hav to try and sandbag their own marginals to save furniture- not waste money trying to go in the offensive your gilmores, Robertsons, bennelongs, dobells, hunters and the outer suburban sets.
Lars was working as a waitress in a cocktail bar when he met Andy
‘Ven says:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 7:28 am
”
steve davissays:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 1:27 am
Trump just getting more stupid. If China doesnt drop their 34% tariff on the US, Trump will impose an additional 50% tariff on top by April 9th. That will be 104% tariffs on China.
He wont win against China thats for sure.
”
Trump wants to impose over 100% Tarrifs on China, the second largest economy in the world all the while imposing no Tariffs on Russia, Russia, Russia
So Trump has dialled up crazy and stupidity to eleventy.’
=====================
I am not sure what would count as a Trump ‘win’ here.
The basic threshold test here is the massive trade imbalance in China’s favour.
Let’s say, worst case scenario, that this trade war ends in zero trade between China and the US. Not impossible. In effect this is the current trajectory. China would be the bigger loser of the two in terms of shrinking the respective economies. China’s already massive manufacturing overcapacity problem would get much worse. Deflation and recession are highly likely.
At a somewhat higher threshold test there are some things that the US has that China wants badly and some things vice versa. In the normal course of economic adaptation over time, both will find the necessary workarounds.
The interim problem is that the inevitable supply chain disruptions will magnify whatever else Xi’s and Trump’s combined shitfuckery generates.
China’s hapless migrant workers who are essentially treated as second class citizens, and Trump’s turkeys will be the biggest sufferers.
AND… so will Australians because all of our biggest export markets have copped massive tariffs increases.
We need to get ready for an adult conversation about how we are going to distribute the coming fall in our living standards.
Donald Trump has dialled up his global trade war another notch, threatening to impose additional tariffs on China of 50 per cent – effective from Wednesday April 9 (Thursday April 10 AEDT) – unless Beijing withdraws its retaliatory 34 per cent levy on US goods.
The threat of escalation comes amid fresh modelling from leading Australian economist Warwick McKibbin showing that Trump’s April 2 Liberation Day announcement – when coupled with global retaliation – would result in US inflation running 2.8 per cent higher than otherwise in 2025.
After cracking the figures, the McKibbin model shows that, in the event of global retaliation, American GDP would take a major hit. US real GDP in 2026 would be 2.2 per cent less than in a world with no Liberation Day tariffs.
US GDP would also remain suppressed over the long-term. Compared to a scenario with no reciprocal tariffs, global retaliation against America would result in US GDP being 0.6 per cent less than otherwise by 2040.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/trump-proposes-additional-50-per-cent-tariff-on-beijing/news-story/905dbad18e0945cd4d04613410a66de4?amp
Well, it’s not a bear market yet (Biden had one – although not self inflicted and not nearly as sharp). And the US isn’t in a recession yet.
The market fall will hurt some people directly and then more indirectly, but will it hurt Trump and his administration in itself? He’ll cop flack from Wall Street peeps annd execs and some twitchy Reps, but his base and most of the GOP, his media friends and his inner circle are not so easily shaken. Main Street matters far more than Wall Street. The detrimental effects of his ‘policies’
will have to slap Joe Average in the face a few more times.
This is truly Trump’s “Liz Truss” moment.
An economic illiterate with too much power enacting ill-conceived policy that tanks the market.
I agree with others – don’t come grovelling to Trump, let him shoot himself in the foot and watch him bleed out.
“Labor to offer free psychologist, psychiatrist visits at clinics under $1b mental health plan. The new funding will be directed into Medicare mental health centres, headspace clinics and youth specialist care centres.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-raises-stakes-on-mental-health-with-1b-pledge-as-dutton-fuels-cost-of-living-policy-20250407-p5lpvh.html
Good announcement, though likely for ahead of the debate. Trump seems determined to suck up media headlines globally – not a good day if you don’t like reading about the US.
Whomsoever made the comment about the immediate impact on business and consumer confidence was bang on.
Xi was already having huge difficulties persuading China’s consumers to spend. They are hoarding their Yuan. Gold if they can get it. Cash under the bed if not gold. Quite right, IMO. There is almost zero private sector investment in China that is not extremely heavily subsidised by Xi. Foreign direct investment has collapsed.
The last thing in any business in the US and Australia ATM would be making new investment decisions.
The first priority everywhere would be to try to figure out WTF. The second priority would be riding out
the storm.
Dutton live on News Breakfast – so for once he’s gone outside of the Sky/2GB bubble.
As for that so called debate tonight, which virtually nobody can watch anyway unless you’re in regional Australia – of course it’s a setup for Dutton, it’s on his favourite network, and the format is designed to suit him too. You can bet most of their panel of supposed undecided voters will be really Liberals.
The ABC debate next week will suit Albanese far more.
Steve
“ A debate organised by Sky News and the Daily Telegraph? Might as well hold the debate in Liberal Party headquarters.”
Agreed. Not sure what Albo gains doing that? Recalling Dutton at previous NPC events (while Defense Minister) he makes stuff up a lot. Assuming Sky don’t call Dutton out on that it will be hard for Albo to “win”. Albo just has to stick to his guns and challenge Dutton on the mistruths.
GFY2says:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 6:33 am
https://au.pcmag.com/networking/110465/gamers-troll-elon-musk-during-path-of-exile-2-live-stream, …
_________________
Two points:
– while hundreds of billions in wealth may be nice, probably not a nice to be hated and unloved by everyone in the world.
– Musk is clearly a gen Xer who played a lot of Diablo 2 in high school – great game, but most have moved on by now.
‘Team Katich says:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 7:41 am
Well, it’s not a bear market yet (Biden had one – although not self inflicted and not nearly as sharp). And the US isn’t in a recession yet.
The market fall will hurt some people directly and then more indirectly, but will it hurt Trump and his administration in itself? He’ll cop flack from Wall Street peeps annd execs and some twitchy Reps, but his base and most of the GOP, his media friends and his inner circle are not so easily shaken. Main Street matters far more than Wall Street. The detrimental effects of his ‘policies’
will have to slap Joe Average in the face a few more times.’
====================================
Too soon to say, IMO.
I believe peeps are probably still in the shock and awe stage. The Cookers are gleeful. The Swamp is Being Drained. The Deep State is being destroyed. The Rapture has arrived. Nearly.
The relentless grind recession/depression stage of personal survival has yet to arrive.
Importers have stockpiled ferociously. Inventories are stacked to the rafters.
The supply chain disruptions will take a while to knock things around.
No Fred
AS’s predictions have included Trump spearing Vance before the election and Trump having little interest in being President beyond winning
Socrates says:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 7:28 am
..
And there has never been a better time to build public housing.
This is where the real gap in housing is. Labor tried a steady approach but the Greens/Liberal coalition have delayed that for three years., we will probable get to the point where the government has to build houses.
Oh goody, The said debate/peoples forum will be free to air here in the Hunter Valley/Newcastle tonight on Sky News Regional
World News & Politics Patrol:
Germany may look to withdraw its gold from US: https://www.mining.com/germany-may-look-to-withdraw-its-gold-from-us-vaults/
Elon Musk’s zero-tariff proposal with Europe is a sign of weakness and fear, German economy minister says: https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musks-zero-tariff-proposal-europe-weakness-german-economy-minister-2025-4
EU offers Trump removal of all industrial tariffs: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-offers-trump-removal-of-all-tariffs/
7 GOP senators sign on to bill to check Trump’s trade authority: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5236142-congress-tariff-bill-trump/
Trump threatens additional 50 percent tariff on China: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5235955-trump-threatens-50-percent-tariff-china/
Vietnam’s Tariffs Offer Rejected by Trump Adviser—’Not a Negotiation’: https://www.newsweek.com/vietnam-offer-remove-tariff-trump-trade-peter-navarro-2056149
Trump Plans $92 Million Military Parade—Honoring Himself: https://newrepublic.com/post/193674/trump-military-parade-birthday
Nationwide Anti-Trump Protest Planned for April 19—What to Know: https://www.newsweek.com/nationwide-trump-protest-april19-50501-handsoff-2056119
Donald Trump Loses It Over Reporter’s Straightforward Tariffs Question: ‘So Stupid’: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-reporter-question-snaps_n_67f36e7de4b0aa0821936b43
Elon Musk’s X to clamp down on parody accounts: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g37elkrxdo
MAGA Gushes Over Trump’s Weirdest Insult Yet: ‘PANICAN’: https://www.thedailybeast.com/maga-gushes-over-trumps-latest-neologism-panican/
DOGE Goons Cause Major Crash to Social Security Site: https://www.thedailybeast.com/elon-musks-doge-goons-cause-major-crash-to-social-security-site/
shellbell says:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 7:48 am
No Fred
AS’s predictions have included Trump spearing Vance before the election and Trump having little interest in being President beyond winning
Clearly you have watched him more than me.
US citizens are going to feel the impact of these tariffs very keenly.
Manufacturing and jobs are not going back to the US anytime soon.
Goods are going to cost a lot more for them. Add all the job losses to come.
Sorry. Not sorry.
Congress and senate could stop these tariffs in their tracks.
Not holding breath. It will be the courts.
A monthly $8 subscription to “Flash” will get you Skynews & all the US networks.
Thank you, Hh.
Leftie brawler
“ As silly old Roy Morgan and News et al are demonstrating that horse has already bolted for Dutton. They now hav to try and sandbag their own marginals to save furniture- not waste money trying to go in the offensive your gilmores, Robertsons, bennelongs, dobells, hunters and the outer suburban sets.”
———————————————————
Same here in Adelaide. Not only did Dutton drop unpopular policies yesterday he announced funding for a freight bypass of Adelaide. This is claimed to benefit Boothby and Sturt (it won’t). The Liberals must be a little concerned about Sturt.
The only beneficiaries will be those who get the money to build the road.