Two fairly marginal new items of poll news:
• Nine Newspapers has been ekeing out further detail from its three Resolve Strategic polls so far this year, today reporting that the two-party result among men was 50-50 in last week’s poll (which had a super-sized sample of 3083), after the Coalition 58-42 from the combined January and February polls (the latter of which produced a markedly stronger result for the Coalition than any other poll published this year). Labor also surged from 55-45 behind to 52-48 ahead among the 35-to-54 age cohort. Yesterday’s report revealed only that the result in “marginal electorates” was Labor 27%, Coalition 38%, Greens 13% and One Nation 7%, as compared with national results of 29%, 37%, 13% and 7%, but in the absence of any indication as to how marginal was defined, it’s hard to say what this might mean. Hopefully a future report will provide breakdowns for Western Australia and South Australia, with only the three largest states featured in the pollster’s regular monthly reporting.
• The News Corp papers today report further detail from yesterday’s RedBridge Group poll, which found 25% wanted a Labor majority government and 31% a Coalition majority government. Twenty per cent of Labor voters wanted them to govern in minority, 14% with the support of the Greens and 6% with the teals (evidently the question was an either-or on this count). Twenty-eight per cent of the small sample of respondents aged 18 to 34 felt the best result would be a “Greens-Labor coalition” (which the report is possibly conflating with a Greens-supported minority government).
Candidate and seat-level news:
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports Labor is “throwing firepower at Peter Dutton’s electorate of Dickson”, and notes that “the Coalition dirt unit has been busy circulating material about Climate 200-backed independent candidate Ellie Smith’s history of environmental activism”. However, an LNP strategist is quoted saying Dutton had “nothing to worry about”.
• It appears Kate Hulett’s hopes of following her near-success as an independent in the state seat of Fremantle by running for the federal seat could fall foul of Section 44. The West Australian reports Hulett “contacted the British Home Office to renounce her citizenship but was told there was a wait of six months, sparking concerns she might not be eligible to run”.
• Pauline Hanson’s daughter, Lee Hanson, will be One Nation’s lead Senate candidate in Tasmania.
Dio
It seems Albo’s campaign will predominantly be how the government will improve Medicare but this will be rearranging the deck chairs rather than a fundamental reform. Adding dental should considerably enhance Medicare’s underperformance and hasten its collapse.
pied pipersays:
Sunday, April 6, 2025 at 4:45 pm
7 hours ago
Katina Curtis/West Australian today.
Dutton to visit US in first 60 days
Nationals leader David Littleproud reveals that Peter Dutton would make a trip to the US to visit Donald Trump within 60 days of becoming prime minister if he wins the election.
He is talking about his call earlier this week for Australia to reset its relationship with the US after Donald Trump imposing a blanket 10 per cent tariff on Australian goods.
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Yes, I heard Dutton is planning to use our defense alliance with the USA as a bargaining chip to cut tariffs. He is out of his depth and a complete numpty.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/06/coalition-dumps-liberal-candidate-who-said-women-should-not-serve-in-adf-combat-roles-ntwnfb
Was he running to be in a Dutton government or the Trump government? He’d be right at home in the latter with those views. He might even have been nominated for Defense Secretary!
Speaking of mental health-
Isn’t it amusing how Dutton and the LNP continue to try the cheapest wedge possible inherited from Morrison with his come one, come all subsidised 1 hour sessions with a Tele based agony aunt.
Yeah! Don’t worry about the foundational basics of a strong Medicare doing tangible things to people like operations but yes let’s make the quasi shrinks rich as a cover for complete abandonment of the healthcare system .
Go and talk over the phone for an hour with some newly minted23 yr old provisional psychologist about your feelings and complexities but never mind the appendix about to burst or the triple bypass needed.
Agree oakshott.
Not only that massive reform and structural reforms around compliance etc would be needed in the dental industry before giving the keys to the city with questionable credentials probably purchased for a few thousand dollars
Dental health is very important and also impacts other physical health issues. It impacts people’s day to day wellbeing.
I don’t care what your talking points or supposed insider knowledge is, if the ALP will only support dental care if there is a minority govt. possibility. Seems really cold and calculating. With all due respect, I am someone really likely to suffer under a Dutton govt. When will it be learnt that this pragmatism toward social wellbeing helps far right populists with their narrative?
Leftie your hostility towards mental health is refreshing. Perhaps you and entropy could sit down and work out a new treatment program based upon the teaching of the Stoics?
Snail I agree about dental care, but universal dental would be exorbitantly expensive and it’s really just a break glass if needed thing politically
This sort of grovelling Trump sycophancy is just reinforcing the online meme of him being a ‘temu trump’ he’s just can’t help himself, it’s utterly pathetic. No wonder he’s completely tanking in the polls.
Nath:
You. Underwhelm. Me.
Afr Today
Mormons broaden horizons with $38m NSW farm deal
The acquisition is the latest expansion into Australian corporate agriculture by the investment arm of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/mormons-broaden-horizons-with-38m-nsw-farm-deal-20250403-p5lp11
Jesus!
nathsays:
Sunday, April 6, 2025 at 4:59 pm
Leftie your hostility towards mental health is refreshing.
================================================
As a Collingwood supporter, Nath, your hatred of dental hygiene is, I suspect, well ingrained.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/06/fact-check-are-australias-international-students-making-it-harder-to-find-a-rental-property-as-peter-dutton-claims
When I was house hunting in inner city Sydney a couple years ago I lost count of the number of apartments I looked at that were on the market because overseas investors had bought them for their children studying in Australia. The kids had either finished their studies, or had gone home during COVID and weren’t returning so their parents had no further need for the home.
pied pipersays:
Sunday, April 6, 2025 at 5:03 pm
Afr Today
Mormons broaden horizons with $38m NSW farm deal
The acquisition is the latest expansion into Australian corporate agriculture by the investment arm of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/mormons-broaden-horizons-with-38m-nsw-farm-deal-20250403-p5lp11
Jesus!
======================================================
They have a lot of influence in the Liberal Party too.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/mormon-influence-rising-in-liberal-party-20180505-p4zdjb.html
Rex Douglas @ #328 Sunday, April 6th, 2025 – 2:32 pm
They’re scared silly, Rex. They literally have no idea what to do 🙁
More Trumpugees? Mormons were never as fond of Donald as their evangelical cousins.
LB says:
“Snail I agree about dental care, but universal dental would be exorbitantly expensive and it’s really just a break glass if needed thing politically”.
And yet Aukus is not exorbitantly expensive?
It’s a matter of priorities.
Newspoll out
Labor 52%
lib/nats 48%
There is a mental health crisis in Australia. Preventative care is cheaper than crisis care. Preventative care is having support to prevent deterioration and relapse. Many people do require more psychological care than they can afford. It is correct that there are not enough psychologists. We need to action more community support, which includes trained social workers, peer workers and NDIS support workers. What there is so not enough is community group options for people. A lot of people mostly need some social connection and interaction, not ( more costly) one on one support. Mental health difficulties have increased in a neoliberal world that has impacted community connections negatively.
Scottsays:
Sunday, April 6, 2025 at 5:16 pm
Newspoll out
Labor 52%
lib/nats 48%
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Nice and early again. Is this the new trend?
Good news for Leftie too. As he will probably see some movement in WB’s numbers as Newspoll gets weighted much higher than other polls.
sustainable snail @ #372 Sunday, April 6th, 2025 – 4:06 pm
Crap, but probably true.
I think you know by now what you have to do.
Thanks Scottie for that update.
I was about to retire from PB for the night however a 52 news poll
… my god. No doubt lars, pied, centre, scrimoll et al will be gracing us with their presence here over the next hour ?
Oh, all right. Fronto Temporal Dementia. Plus malignant narcissism.
That is all you need to know.
—————————————
Seth Meyers calls it “Early-onset Rigor mortis”
leftie, I’m surprised you didn’t know about the Newspoll result hours ago given your insider status.
If the Mormons are moving into agriculture, I presume that as a religion they won’t be taxed on the profits.
Thank you Alastair. Your boss Michaelia Cash must wish it was the other way round, but 48/52 is still a decent result when you consider that given the shy Tory effect, it would still mean that Dutton has a greater than even chance of winning the election were these polls replicated through to election day.
While all elections have their similarities and differences, I do not reconcile the 2019 election to this coming one, other than to not to be over confident on Labor’s behalf
At the 2019 election, Labor took a suite of reasonable policies to the campaign only to see these die a death to the innate conservatism of the Oz electorate lead by Morrison.
The conditions behind this election are quite different.
If anything and our Green friends go on about this – current Labor is more akin to the Liberals under Howard.
Labor is the status quo and it difficult times, I sense the status quo will hold.
Having seen Labor leads evaporate from 52-48 to election loss always reminds one that this is still, mainly, a two horse race.
The big difference is Labor’s incumbency and the poison from Trump that Dutton, Cash, Gina and the Liberals have taken on board.
Diogenes @ #392 Sunday, April 6th, 2025 – 4:36 pm
I guess you have to have reached a certain age, when your teeth begin to disintegrate because you have never been able to afford proper dental care – even if you had expensive health cover for most of your life, as I did – to care about teeth.
But those of us who have … do.
No doubt the Left here will wish and hope that a 53-47 Newspoll to Labor will be released in a week or two – in their narcissistic doddering daiquiri delusions.
So, Labor up 52-48 with momentum.
Can’t see how Albo stuffs it up from here.
It’s looks all over bar the shouting.
Rex Douglas @ #328 Sunday, April 6th, 2025 – 2:32 pm
For the remarkably little it’s worth, Labor’s first response has been to wait and see. Australia is a valued contributor to the security system and has derived great financial and security benefits from the relationship with the US.
If this relationship has to change, Labor will do it. But it’s certainly one cautious step at a time for now.
Nath I don’t sit around waiting for Rupert’s latest fortnightly rectal regurgitations.
I have access to internal data from time to time. Couldn’t care less about news poll but do like the reactions to it on here
The federal lib/nats propaganda media units, will use the same propaganda as they did during the 2022 federal election, Labor primary vote isnt high enough
Even though the federal elections trends show , that federal lib/nats combined primary vote is below 40% , more likely they can not form any kind of government
Federal lib/nats combined primary vote under 37%
It will be likely Labor majority government
ScromoII some guessing you’re a troll or an idiot anyway this is bad for the liberals did did no one gain plan a Trump win and how that might affect them because if anything holy crap momentums behind the Labour Party
Newspoll
ALP 33
LNP 36
GRN 12
PHoN 7
OTH 12
Leftie I can see why you are trusted with internal data, your discretion is legendary.
Leftie I can see why you are trusted with internal data, your discretion is legendary.
Rex – I well remember 2019, let’s not count all our chickens before they’ve hatched. But the momentum is with Albanese, not Temu Trump.
As for dental care – it’d be popular especially with the over 55s if Labor was to announce some sort of means tested Medicare based dental program – I’d guess extending it to the entire population would be massively expensive.
pied piper says:
Sunday, April 6, 2025 at 4:45 pm
7 hours ago
Katina Curtis/West Australian today.
Dutton to visit US in first 60 days
Nationals leader David Littleproud reveals that Peter Dutton would make a trip to the US to visit Donald Trump within 60 days of becoming prime minister if he wins the election.
He is talking about his call earlier this week for Australia to reset its relationship with the US after Donald Trump imposing a blanket 10 per cent tariff on Australian goods.
_____________________________________________
How much is Dutton prepared to grovel publicly to Trump? How much are Australians prepared to see their Prime Minister brown nose himself (or worse) before a US President – let alone a President as vile and immoral as the criminal Trump?
And how many Australians will vote for an out and out Trump bootlicker?
“Labor is now leading the Coalition 52-48 on a two-party preferred basis, with the single-point gain mirroring the 2022 election result, despite voters backing Peter Dutton as the stronger and more decisive leader.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation%2Fpolitics%2Fnewspoll-labor-extends-poll-lead-over-coalition-edges-towards-majority-government%2Fnews-story%2F25f57e1d26f06c919c17fc97eabae860?amp
_____________
Benson had just one turd to polish from the many traits polled, and polish it he did!
My data is accurate and my sources primary dear Nath.
Stick to the year 11 business studies virtual share trading competition you’ve been sliding lower and lower in every since you graciously allowed me to start living rent free in your head
Here’s the write-up of Newspoll in the National Rupert:
“Newspoll: Labor narrowly extends its lead after first week
Labor is now leading the Coalition 52-48 on a two-party preferred basis, with the single-point gain mirroring the 2022 election result, despite voters backing Peter Dutton as the stronger and more decisive leader.
SIMON BENSON”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-labor-extends-poll-lead-over-coalition-edges-towards-majority-government/news-story/25f57e1d26f06c919c17fc97eabae860 (Paywalled – can’t read).
Pretty sure people can’t afford dental.
Thought we were a first world lucky country that could help the people not have their teeth fall out in the 21st century?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-30/dental-health-care-neglected-amid-rising-living-costs/104241508
36 primary for the LNP is dreadful-
2022
LNP 35.7 (now 36)
ALP 32.6 (now 33)
Can’t see where 21 seats are coming from on these numbers.
Headline from the Australian:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-labor-extends-poll-lead-over-coalition-edges-towards-majority-government/news-story/25f57e1d26f06c919c17fc97eabae860
_______________________________________________
Talk about aggressively polishing a turd!
ScromoII says:
Sunday, April 6, 2025 at 5:24 pm
No doubt the Left here will wish and hope that a 53-47 Newspoll to Labor will be released in a week or two
Oh I’m hoping the Liberals lose all their seats. This is what they deserve. 2PP? Don’t know/don’t care.
OC
Agree dental would be the end of Medicare.
ss
Mental health is a national priority and disgrace. It’s a bipartisan failure. One hospital in Adelaide has 1000 kids waiting to be seen for an ASD diagnosis assessment.
Early intervention just doesn’t happen in any area. Even chronic care doesn’t happen much. We only do acute crisis intervention. It’s very sad and we are paying a heavy price. SA EDs are full of mental health patients which is affecting the rest of the system.
BK @ 5.33
Snap!
From Dr Bonham
Albanese net -11 (42-53)
Dutton net -17 (38-55)
Better PM (favours incumbents) Albanese leads 48-40
New thread.