The News Corp papers have a new poll RedBridge Group and Accent Research, which appears from the reporting to be a national poll, though in other respects it looks like the third wave of the marginal seat tracking poll that last reported in early March. It credits Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, out from 51-49 in the pollster’s last result from March 13 to 24. The primary votes are Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 36% (down two) and Greens 12% (up one). The poll also finds 40% now feel the government is “focused on the right priorities” compared with 43% for the contrary view, which compares with 30% and 52% when the same question was asked in November. Thirty-eight per cent rate Peter Dutton and the Coalition as “ready for government” compared with 43% for unready, which compares with 40% and 39% in November.
Thirty-three per cent felt Labor’s “economic vision” was better for themselves compared with 28% for the Coalition; 31% felt Labor’s was better for Australia compared with 29% for the Coalition. Questions on individual policies are favourable to the Coalition to the extent of recording a net plus 47% for a 25% cut in the permanent migration program and plus 39% for fast-tracking new gas projects. Views are less favourable on reducing the public service by 41,000 at plus 5%, and less favourable still for ending public servants’ work from home arrangements, at minus 5%. The poll had an unusually long gestation period of March 8 to April 1 and a sample of 1006 (UPDATE: The report turns out to be in error – March 8 should read March 28).
C@tmomma @ #496 Saturday, April 5th, 2025 – 9:23 pm
Thanks for that link. I’ll save it for my list of things to watch tomorrow.
Is Anthony Albanese worried Jacinta Allan’s poor standing will hurt his election chances in Victoria?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/05/election-labor-anthony-albanese-jacinta-allan-victoria-analysis
“The Coalition believes they can pick up as many as nine seats in Victoria, while even the most optimistic Labor sources expect to lose at least three. (The more pessimistic say even traditional Labor strongholds like Bruce and Hawke are now in play.)”
Taylormade – Gold had peaked in 1980 at $843, it then slowly declined into the 1990s and 1997 was about the bottom of it. So it was the bottom of the market for at least 2 decades.
As to why the Welcome Stranger was only worth 4.37 pounds was because the gold standard was in use. A sovereign was worth a pound and contained 0.2354 troy ounces of pure gold.
HTV’s shouldn’t be banned, but there really needs to be a huge crackdown on the gigantic wasteful production of election materials.
At the last council election (I did an early vote, with a huge line up) there were about 8 people from the various groups/parties each with a massive stack of hundreds of HTV cards, with boxes of them off to the side.
Every bin was stuffed with them, there were hundreds discarded in the garden or in the gutters.
A massive waste of money and paperstock.
C@t – Paul Krugman suggests that is Terminator 7 – Skynet doesn’t start a nuclear war, it just gives bad tariff advice instead.
William I know you like to be cautious in your analysis but I’d be interested in you sharing a few potential scenarios regarding seat changes, party totals etc based around a few potentially possible but distinctly different scenarios?
B. S. Fairman says:
Saturday, April 5, 2025 at 8:43 pm
Hack – True. But the question is where can the money run to?
Since all currencies are essentially synthetic these days it should be possible – in principle at least – to create a synthetic Reserve, exchangeable/tradable in numerous markets and held on the balance sheets of national reserve banks.
May the trend continue.
Record Minor Party Vote at the 2022 Senate Election and how the Senate’s Electoral System Performed / Antony Green
https://antonygreen.com.au/record-minor-party-vote-at-the-2022-senate-election-and-how-the-senates-electoral-system-performed/
“The 2022 Senate election marked a new high point in support for minor parties and Independents. The long term trend of declining support for major parties continued and passed a new milestone. For the first time both major parties were outpolled by the combined vote for minor parties and independents.”
Nath I thought that was either you or young entropy being turned away by the AFP close personal protection detail with tube of deep heat in one hand and pheromone-infused coconut oil in the other ?
True bob re HTV’s
However, the politically uneducated need them.
Maybe a hand them back as you leave after voting could be the go, or the cleaner person just takes them back out the front and gives them back to the relevant parties.
Then again, I’m a taker of all HTV’s with a smile and send all but Labors into the bin.
That avoids me having to tell a get in your face LNP or Greens pusher to fuck off.
Greens are worse than LNP when it comes to shoving tickets.
Why the parties just have a display of various HTV cards to choose from at the entry, instead of having people shove them in your face with a smarmy insincere smile?
Pegasus at 9.37 pm
That statement seems about a month old, which is a lot in the current state of polling. Nadia got up to about 7 possible Lib gains in VIC with some generous assumptions. It is fairly clear from current polling and from Dutton’s optics and drone rhetoric that Lib gains will be well below that.
In short this election will not be like 1990 when the Libs very marginally won TPP and gained 9 seats in Vic. Peacock was a flat soufflé but he had a charm in Vic that Dutton totally lacks.
It will be more likely 1998, when a first term government with a far from popular leader came from marginally behind to win. The difference is that Beazley won 21 seats. Dutton will not.
The writer of the article writes about all the horrible things happening in USA in a funny way.
Idiot Rapist Also a One-Man Recession
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/4/4/2314673/-Idiot-Rapist-Also-a-One-Man-Recession?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
For example,
Speaking of the ineffectual spin of sycophantic dolts, Peter Navarro insisted the tariffs are in fact tax CUTS. Yeah, go hog wild with that shit, kids. Set those expectations sky high. Promise tax cuts, and reshored manufacturing, and $5,000 DOGE checks, and see what happens when you turn around and pass the revenue you pluck from our weekly grocery store trips straight on to your billionaire donors.”
He could be going to El Salvador gulag when Marshall law is imposed in US.
Thank you Donald Trump for the intense commitment you and your VP have shown to reinvigorating centre left politics around the Western world.
pied piper:
Trump derangement syndrome reigns on here take a bex and lie down!
Good buying opportunities and I noticed the Vietnamese etc are talking about slashing their tariffs.
Vietnam tariff is currently at 5%. In Trump's first term, Nike and others obediently relocated their sweatshops from China to Vietnam. Now Trump wants them to relocate to America. Nike's response to Trump: Go f*ck yourself, we aint moving anywhere.
JP Morgan has upped its prediction of a US recession to 60%.
And what the f*ck is a “bex”. Wait – I do not care.
Very true bellwether- centre left movements around the world were almost dead and buried and on life support before trumpy came back
Cheers William – that’s my kind of interesting pattern. I’m guessing there’s a few people who just put the big two parties last and work from there. I’m always surprised to see votes like Shooters 1 Green 2, but they exist for some reason.
C’mon Libs, it’s never too late to change leaders. You know you want to.
Take a bex and lie down – the more subtle , antiquated way of telling a women to cut the nagging by having a glass of water
Pied Piper has a bex habit.
“Then again, I’m a taker of all HTV’s with a smile and send all but Labors into the bin.”
Funny, I’m the opposite, I have a bit of a laugh at the LNP person trying to hand me one then take the Labor one only. For solidarity.
Dr Doolittle @ 10.00pm,
Thank you for a cogent dismemberment of the attempt to mislead by quoting something from a month ago. We’re getting daily polls and that person thinks they can influence the debate by using dodgy stale material. In a not entirely unexpected type of gambit.
Is there an election on? I live in Macnamara and you’d not know there is an election on hardly any signs or local advertising.
Went down to family in OG today in Corrangamite and usually that’s corfluate central during a campaign and I saw 3 out and they’ve been there for months.
Polling is showing Victoria as a wasteland but if the Liberals are using the “vibe” of polling from 3 months ago it seems strange to me. 2 very marginal seats and you’d never know there is an election on.
pied piper is showing his age.
leftieBrawler at 9.51 pm
William might be very busy.
You can get a good idea of where things are heading by reading the analysis by Dr Bonham of the 2nd YouGov MRP. That gave Labor 75 seats but without Lyons which they should be favoured to win.
Dr Bonham’s model gave Labor 73 or 74 based on a TPP vote of only 50.2%. Current trend is clearly above that.
While the Werribee by-election was a state one, the fact that only a small part of the drop in the Lab vote went to the Libs was a very clear signal.
Likewise the tepid performance of the over-heralded Basil in Churchlands shows the weakness of the Lib vote in traditional areas, especially women.
There are only two scenarios for the Reps. Dutton miraculously manages to halt his polling slide and this leads to a close election with Labor minority.
Otherwise the over-backed neddie called Hung Parliament will fade in the run to the finish as Labor comes home stronger than the alternative.
Yes there are almost 4 weeks to go but Dutton is more of a loser than the media have been prepared to accept.
Remember that J. Howard thought he had lost in the first 2 hours of counting in 1998 but won easily, despite losing the TPP very clearly.
That was Albo’s second election. He may appreciate the irony of doing a Howard in reverse.
Hey Peggy I posted this earlier…
That was then……..this is now…we will see soon enough…..
Mrmoney says:
Saturday, April 5, 2025 at 5:12 pm
A couple of posters from the guardian.
1 hour ago
2
Have been landing out material for the Labor party at train stations and street stalls. Not picking up any anger at Labor – in fact amazed at how willing people are to take material and engage positively. And this is in Victoria, which another newspaper is constantly talking up the chance that people will vote against Labor to punish the Vic government.
Report
karma9
karma9
kappers
42 minutes ago
0
Both The Age (9media) and Herald Sun (Murdoch) have been running rabid Anti Labor and Jacinta Allan campaigns in Victoria for years, but like you I’m not picking up that sentiment on the campaign trail.
Who to believe……the Hun …the Age…The Australian….
Or some on the street………mmmmmmm
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/05/donald-trump-in-the-white-house-seemed-like-a-plus-for-peter-dutton-but-after-this-week-maybe-not-so-much
I was probably too young to think much about Reagan as a President. But everything I have seen over the last five years has made me think he was better than I thought.
We need more Reagan Republicans.
This is him slamming tariffs as an easy but incredibly stupid move.
https://substack.com/@marketsentiment/note/c-105593959?r=315vgu&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
Cat at 10.14 pm
Yes, but one does hope that her and others like her can afford fresh food, i.e. they don’t mix stale polls with food that should be given to chooks.
As you know, many people who are on welfare and have to rent cannot easily do that, even with Yabba’s expertise.
Excluding Greece, Australia still gets the wooden spoon for the level of the dole, behind NZ, which is shameful.
Yes bob.
I should harden up a bit.
Then again, why should I stop being the nice chap I am?
**disclaimer I handed out Labor HTV’s at Gerroa sometime in the 90’s, Fred Nile and his crew were there, lovely people to talk to except for their politics.
Yes Reagan was a classical republican, not a nor easter but still miles between what the GOP is now.
Reagan’s strength which was magnified after the assassination attempt was his default preference toward a consultative style of leadership. His cabinet and particularly G H Bush were basically running the government for the last 6 or so years. But unlike Trump he had comparatively level headed and calm folks around him.
Antidotes abound such as the time Reagan was more interested in hosting an industry gathering at the Whitehouse for the Californian wine industry during a major NATO USSR standoff.
Diogenes at 10.19 pm
If you looked closer as a doctor might Reagan’s appeal was pure and simple window-dressing.
And it was before 24 hr shopping. He was asleep for quite a lot each day.
Where he differed from Trump was in his ability to recognise, to a limited degree, historical change initiated by Gorbachev and to respond in person.
Dutton is going to do particularly badly in their old heartlands, now mostly teal and more broadly in inner to middle suburbia. Voters in these areas do not like this divisive, policy-free operation.
He constantly likes to claim Albo is a weak PM, but simply being aggressive and making various unconvincing strongman noises with no concrete sense of what he actually wants to do as PM makes him a non-viable candidate for PM.
Shogun at 10.07 pm
“Bex” was advertised ad nauseum. It provided the occasion for one of the more original pieces of Australian political humour.
Near the eastern end of Victoria Rd at White Bay in Sydney in the early summer of 1972 the punchline to the “Bex” ad, “Don’t share your day with a headache”, namely “take Bex”, was amended to read:
“Vote Labor”.
Albo once, in April 1998, thought that Billy McMahon was superior to J. Howard. McMahon at least as federal Treasurer stopped the huge waste of nuclear power emerging in Australia.
So what are you guys think newspoll going to be I think it’s still gonna be leading labour Peters had a shocking week I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor gains a couple of seats the liberals they really miscalculated pretending to be Trump they need to realize Australia’s a said to leading government that likes a services hell and news article says that people don’t like Peter kept saying to people come election times s***’s gonna get better for the Labour Party
Things not looking good.
https://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/national/federal-election/shock-poll-shows-dutton-not-popular-with-women-and-voters-think-albanese-has-right-priorities/news-story/208c982ded696333651b2e6b3d5f94a8?giftid=MxYCKJ0SJn
I think Newspoll will be around 52-48 to Labor.
Mj I mean redbridge did have them 52 to 48 so news pole could have them at 52 to 48 I know people saying this is the first week of the campaign but usually the first week sets up the f****** campaign and well the other side had a better first starter than the other
Back in the 60’s a Bex in a medium Coke was the poor kids thrill.
Been There at 10.46 pm
That is the same poll as headlined by William in this thread.
Interestingly, the journo is the Tory whose wife lost the Aston by-election.
He thought it obvious long ago that nuclear power promotion would lose Dutton an election, not help him win it.
That issue will be another reason why the gender gap, with more women favouring Labor, should grow even stronger, i.e. bigger even than it was under ProMo Morrison re the Teals.
Hey Dr Doolittle who do you think at the moment what’s the chance a labor majority or labour minority honestly I’m starting to think Coalition ain’t looking to get majority hell minority at the moment it’s gonna be out of reach for them
Oops sorry, thanks for pointing that out.
Slack on my part.
Keep up the good work Dr Doolittle.
“Is there an election on? I live in Macnamara and you’d not know there is an election on hardly any signs or local advertising.”
I wonder if people in Macnamara are worried about signage being a flashpoint for vandalism etc.
Here in Kooyong we are buried in signs.
Come to think of it, after the noise the Libs made about those unfunny “Monique don’t steal this sign” signs, I don’t think I’ve seen a single one all week whether from the car or while out walking my dogs. One might think that maybe they don’t exist beyond the original photo op gag.
Quentin yeah it seems for Labor their 2PP position should get better the way the campaign has gone so far, it’ll also be interesting to see where the primary votes sit since I don’t think people are exactly sold on Labor either so could be an increased “other” vote.
Australia takes over supplying gas to China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkPZvoP7Tg0
I’ve seen one sign in my area so far… an LNP bloke putting it on the median fence on a bridge. It lasted two days.
We had the Liberal banner wavers on Bribie today for the first time. No Labor banner wavers yet which seems strange as I would have thought Longman would be on Labor’s wish list.
I visited my Mum who lives in Curtin today and there is quite a lot of corflutes there exclusively Liberal and Kate Chaney ones from what I came across. Quite a few households with their own signs which seem split about 50-50 between the 2.
Last election there were alot of Labor and Greens signs there as well when there were few before. Suspect they were running interference to assist Chaney. Maybe she doesn’t need the help now.
I live in Swan there’s a few Lib and Greens signs seen 1 for Labor but I don’t think the result here is in doubt.
$2.3 billion spending like drunken sailors fed labor.
That’s the price says tonight’s exclusive in the West Australian of paying for 1 million solar batteries to be installed from July 1.
Battery discount of 4K.
Labor is still worried about WA falling over hence the scoop.
Reagan rejected tariffs:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEtSN-dV6q0
Here in Wentworth we are awash with election posters. Every pole along every main road in the electorate either has a Allegra Spender or Ro Knox (the Liberal) poster, in some cases both!
It’s so bad that there are a number of Allegra Spender posters up in the neighbouring electorates of Kingsford Smith and Sydney, particularly along main roads that lead to Wentworth. Clearly she doesn’t want anyone to miss her…
There are a few Labor posters around Bondi and Bronte, but not many elsewhere. Big comparison to the state and local elections which Labor wins by big margins in some parts of Wentworth.
Meanwhile the Greens seem to be hedging their bets around Edgecliff for some reason – quite a few posters advertising Dr Mehreen Faruqi for Senate along New South Head Road.
Will the comedians back honestly I didn’t know what n was thinking when she said that the liberals could pick up seven seats I mean with the swing is at the moment I think the liberals may be able to pick up 2 to 3