The News Corp papers have a new poll RedBridge Group and Accent Research, which appears from the reporting to be a national poll, though in other respects it looks like the third wave of the marginal seat tracking poll that last reported in early March. It credits Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, out from 51-49 in the pollster’s last result from March 13 to 24. The primary votes are Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 36% (down two) and Greens 12% (up one). The poll also finds 40% now feel the government is “focused on the right priorities” compared with 43% for the contrary view, which compares with 30% and 52% when the same question was asked in November. Thirty-eight per cent rate Peter Dutton and the Coalition as “ready for government” compared with 43% for unready, which compares with 40% and 39% in November.
Thirty-three per cent felt Labor’s “economic vision” was better for themselves compared with 28% for the Coalition; 31% felt Labor’s was better for Australia compared with 29% for the Coalition. Questions on individual policies are favourable to the Coalition to the extent of recording a net plus 47% for a 25% cut in the permanent migration program and plus 39% for fast-tracking new gas projects. Views are less favourable on reducing the public service by 41,000 at plus 5%, and less favourable still for ending public servants’ work from home arrangements, at minus 5%. The poll had an unusually long gestation period of March 8 to April 1 and a sample of 1006 (UPDATE: The report turns out to be in error – March 8 should read March 28).
The DJI is down fluctuating between 2000-2100 points, which is over -5.00%
It’s an outlier.
Dutton remains ahead and on track to win
S&P : over -5%
Nasdaq: overe -5%
”
The Wombatsays:
Saturday, April 5, 2025 at 5:41 am
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/chris-uhlmann-maybe-the-liberal-world-order-was-always-an-illusion/news-story/8a854c642d1a62fb3ba14cc9e273a686
Chris Uhlmann sums up my thoughts on the trivialities of our domestic political debate in the face of massive global turbulence and soaring risks.
”
Now that USA became illiberal, Chris Ulmann suddenly thinks that ‘liberal world order ‘ is an illusion.
He enjoyed all the advantages of liberal world order , he turns against it because US and LNP turned against it.
Chris Ulmann is pathetic. It appears that he wants a world order where
1. might is right,
2. whites dominate of 90% of world like it happened in last 400 years.
3. He is a religious fundamentalist
4. He doesn’t believe in Climate change
5. He doesn’t want Renewable energy.
Is he scromoII?
William kept the lounge bar open late last night.
For first time ever, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by over 1,500 points on two consecutive days.
Stock markets today
Italy: -6.5%
Poland: -6.3%
Austria: -5.9%
Spain: -5.8%
Denmark: -5.7%
Switzerland: -5%
Norway: -5%
Luxembourg: -5%
Germany: -4.9%
UK: -4.9%
Greece: -4.8%
Portugal: -4.7%
Belgium: -4.6%
France: -4.3%
Netherlands: -4.1%
Turkey: -1.1%
Crude oil: -6.8%
Natural gas: -7.7%
Copper: -8.8%
Silver: -7.6%
Nickel: -6.4%
Coffee: -5%
Cocoa: -8%
Soybeans: -3.3%
Palm oil: -3.5%
So far today.
General Electric: -10.8%
Intel: -10.6%
Tesla: -9.1%
Boeing: -8.5%
Chevron: -7.4%
Morgan Stanley: -7.3%
JPMorgan: -7%
Dell: -7%
Goldman Sachs: -6.6%
Mastercard: -6.3%
Visa: -6.2%
Apple: -6.2%
NVIDIA: -6.1%
Exxon: -6.1%
It’s likely Trump will finally bring an end to global white is might domination. China will only come out of this stronger while trust in the US will collapse.
Trump’s tarrifs are costing Trump’s oligarchs billions. Oooh! I am rubbing my hands.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/4/4/2314542/-Trump-s-tariffs-are-costing-his-rich-pals-billions?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_4&pm_medium=web
“The billionaires who gleefully bought front-row seats to President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January seem to now be living out a horror movie—except, instead of dying, they’re bleeding billions from their fortunes.
Trump’s reckless economic policies were already scorching their portfolios, but his retaliatory tariffs this week have sent the stock market into a free fall, dragging his new buddies’ personal wealth down with it.
The 500 richest people in the world lost a combined $208 billion on Thursday due to the stock crash that Trump caused, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. And one of the biggest losers is Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, whose fortune shrank by $15.9 billion after Amazon shares tanked 9% on Thursday, giving the company its worst day since April 2022.
Somehow, though, even that got eclipsed by Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who lost a staggering $17.9 billion in one day, or about 9% of his total net worth.
And then there’s Trump’s “first buddy” Elon Musk, whose ride-or-die status with the White House has been as volatile as his social media feed. Musk has lost $110 billion this year, including a loss of $11 billion on Thursday alone. (His car company, Tesla, is already in rough shape.)”
No fun in Trumpland: Video games, toys, and more take hit by tariffs
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/4/4/2314557/-No-fun-in-Trumpland-Video-games-toys-and-more-take-hit-by-tariffs?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
“President Donald Trump’s tariffs are roiling global markets and triggering layoffs, but now the widely derided economic policy is coming after several areas of leisure and fun.
Nintendo announced on Friday that preorders for the highly anticipated Switch 2 game console will be delayed for Americans because of the tariffs.
“Pre-orders for Nintendo Switch 2 in the U.S. will not start April 9, 2025 in order to assess the potential impact of tariffs and evolving market conditions. Nintendo will update timing at a later date. The launch date of June 5, 2025 is unchanged,” Nintendo said in a statement.”
“In his rambling tariff announcement speech on Wednesday, Trump singled out the nations of China and Vietnam for retaliatory tariffs. Those nations are two of the largest toy manufacturers in the world and the tariffs could lead to a 50% price hike—right before the back-to-school season.
“This is going to have massive negative repercussions for the consumer and for our industry,” Greg Ahearn, president and CEO of The Toy Association, told CNBC.
Eric Handler, an industry analyst for Roth, told investors in a research note, “The consumer should soon see price increases to partially offset the tariff impact.”
Board game companies are also in Trump’s crosshairs.
The Game Manufacturer’s Association said in a statement on Friday that Trump’s tariffs are “dire news” for the industry. Many tabletop gaming companies manufacture their games in China.
“Tariffs are essentially taxes on consumers, not on the countries where the products are produced. Publishers will be forced to pass these costs along to their customers or face the prospect of ceasing operations,” the group added.”
Trump blows off honoring dead soldiers to attend golf tournament
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/4/4/2314507/-Trump-blows-off-honoring-dead-soldiers-to-attend-golf-tournament?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web
“President Donald Trump isn’t attending the dignified transfer of four American soldiers who died in Lithuania, because he has instead chosen to attend a Saudi-backed golf tournament at his country club in Doral, Florida.
Staff Sgt. Jose Duenez Jr., Staff Sgt. Edvin F. Franco, Pfc. Dante D. Taitano, and Staff Sgt. Troy S. Knutson-Collins, all in their twenties, died during a training exercise in the Baltic region of Europe when the military vehicle they were driving sank into a swamp, Military.com reported.
Their bodies began their dignified transfer back to the United States on Thursday and are expected to arrive on Friday at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware. In place of Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will be present at the transfer, according to Fox News.”
We all wondered why Russia is not on Trump tariffs list.
WH explanation was that US trade with Russia is zero after US imposed sanctions on Russia. Not true.
Daily Kos:
Last year, the U.S. traded an estimated $3.5 billion of goods with Russia, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. “U.S. goods exports to Russia in 2024 were $526.1 million,” the office says on its website. “The U.S. goods trade deficit with Russia was $2.5 billion in 2024.”
Remember, Trump stupidly sees any trade deficit as a country screwing the U.S. And yet, while Russia has a fairly significant one, Trump has remained mum.
So what is Russia sending to the U.S.? No. 1 on the list: fertilizer.
And therein lies the likely reason Trump exempted Russia.
American farmers get the vast majority of their potash fertilizer from Canada, which the U.S. has now heavily tariffed. Watch him try to replace Canadian potash with Russian fertilizer to both mollify furious farmers and their Republican legislators, and do a solid for his pal Putin.
Be Prepared–They’re Watching!
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/4/4/2314505/-Be-Prepared-They-re-Watching?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“The Trump regime is a lawless regime. It is increasingly unconstrained by existing laws, or by the courts. Unlike in his first term, Trump is no longer surrounded by “adults.” He’s surrounded by people chosen specifically for their absolute loyalty to himself.
That’s why the article linked here: The 200+ Sites an ICE Surveillance Contractor is Monitoring (mostly behind a paywall) is alarming. To summarize ICE (Immigrations and Customs Enforcement) is paying a private contractor to monitor and permanently record all posts on hundreds of alternative news and social media sites, including Daily Kos. Everything that we post online is recorded. Even if you delete a post, they already have it recorded!
ICE is using this information against legal green card possessing residents to identify them as persons the Trump regime will select for involuntary (illegal) summary deportation. The first several such cases have just occurred and are currently in the news.”
The US markets have closed for the week. This is what global wealth destruction looks like..
Btw, the VIX index – up 45% – models expected volatility over the next 30 days. And is the leading market barometer of future risk.
Notably also, the oil price is plummeting – on the expectation of recession.
The big drop in oil will flow through to the pumps in a couple of weeks. So fuel prices are likely to be about 10 to 15 cents per litre at the time of the election.
And a reminder of what Peter Dutton has in store for us…
https://x.com/quendergeer/status/1907873192053772502
Crowsa Luxemburg
@quendergeer
·
Apr 3
Replying to @keewa
they’ve just asked chatgpt to spit out a spreadsheet haven’t they
Insiders Sunday, 6 Apr
David Speers and the panel Tom Crowley, Niki Savva and Jennifer Hewett discuss the first full week of the election campaign as well as the global and domestic implications of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement.
GUESTS : Campaign Special – David Littleproud And Penny Wong
So what will Dutton do to try and stop the slide? At this rate the LNP could end up going backwards
Needs a game changing policy announcement but do they have one? Unlikely
Possibility is Labor can still go backwards as well with a bigger cross bench. Probably a bit ambitious but I’m predicting it can get to #25in25
At least 1 in 3 voters won’t vote 1 for Labor / LNP
It’s time to shake things up
I previously said it is all to play for, but I am not sure that Dutton can turn this around. Women are really turning off Dutton the more they see of him.
I cannot see anything big policy-wise coming from Labor now. They are trending well and want to present a safe pair of hands with global events.
Somewhat disappointed yet relieved that the Coalition is looking unlikely.
Mario Nicolais
@marionicolais.bsky.social
Follow
#TrumpCrash hit a historic mark.
It is only the fourth time in history that the DOW has lost 2,000 points in a single day – and that follows a huge drop yesterday, too.
The DOW is down nearly 4,000 since the #TrumpTariffs were announced on Weds night. #Trumponomics
https://bsky.app/profile/marionicolais.bsky.social/post/3llz4seaprc2s
Redbridge Poll..
”
Griffsays:
Saturday, April 5, 2025 at 7:39 am
I previously said it is all to play for, but I am not sure that Dutton can turn this around. Women are really turning off Dutton the more they see of him.
I cannot see anything big policy-wise coming from Labor now. They are trending well and want to present a safe pair of hands with global events.
Somewhat disappointed yet relieved that the Coalition is looking unlikely.
”
Griff
Don’t count the chickens. A lot can happen in 4 weeks.
The only saving graces about these polls are
Lars stopped saying ‘slippin&slidin’
Centre stopped saying : Whooska!
Ven – It is not that they used top level domain names, it just looks like it. They would have used the country codes in ISO 3166-1. The country domain names are based off that.
Ven says:
Saturday, April 5, 2025 at 7:43 am
”
Griffsays:
Saturday, April 5, 2025 at 7:39 am
I previously said it is all to play for, but I am not sure that Dutton can turn this around. Women are really turning off Dutton the more they see of him.
I cannot see anything big policy-wise coming from Labor now. They are trending well and want to present a safe pair of hands with global events.
Somewhat disappointed yet relieved that the Coalition is looking unlikely.
”
Griff
Don’t count the chickens. A lot can happen in 4 weeks.
____________
I am not counting. But I cannot see a way out for Dutton. Can you? He can attempt to flush the budget and promise large tax cuts for all. But he has already promised super money, fuel excise cuts. etc. International events are not in his favour. The only thing I can think of is some serious dirt on Albo. But if Morrison didn’t find any, I would be surprised if they have something to use now.
New York Times Pitchbot
@nytpitchbot.bsky.social
Follow
I lost my job, my kids have measles, and I had to drive my parents 200 miles to a Social Security office, but at least I know that immigrants are getting sent to torture prisons in El Salvador.
April 4, 2025 at 12:43 AM
https://bsky.app/profile/nytpitchbot.bsky.social/post/3llvzum5xy22s
ScromoII: piped piper levels of delusion – the difference being the PP is actually amusing and enjoyable to read. Scromroll being more like P1 and that stubborn bit of tp that hangs around the arsehole vertical crease all day.
I’m glad I had it out with William last night because he can no longer deny my accuracy and inside info I all too frequently share with the good folk here including my Indian friend Ven.
I’m happy to keep on sharing my inside info despite the risk of permanent persona non grata on my behalf.
Labor is heading for an 80-83 seat landing.
This will be the sweetest victory of all, a victory for the true believers.
Speaking of puridness, Ven I notice P1 attacked you for being English as a second language.
She is the one that should be attacked for being simultaneously a member of the NSW LIB executive and owner of a shitty joint that more readily takes one’s money than the local naughty rub and tug.
Yes take me on P1. Lefty brawler is in full on campaign mode now. Love your work William and thanks for not doxing. Cheers.
The SMH has a Resolve quarterly aggregate poll – includes a March breakout which continues this pollsters bad sample for Labor.
The analysis, conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic, is based on responses from 6096 voters over three surveys from January to March, including 3083 respondents in March alone. That is twice as large as the typical monthly survey.
Resolve director Jim Reed said the results showed the weakness in the Labor vote in the two key states as well as the recent trend in the government’s favour, suggesting Albanese could retain power if he maintained momentum for the rest of the campaign.
Good as a reality check for progressive forces..
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-primary-vote-exposed-in-key-states-despite-recovery-this-year-20250403-p5lp0r.html
The key from the latest polling is the high level of primary polling for all the others (Labor/Greens/Coalition) excluded and where the second preferences end up. That’s the uncertainty that makes it difficult to predict an outcome.
What seems likely from recent polling is that the Coalition will struggle to win back those Teal seats.
I thought Ven was Australian.
Resolve trend..
While the Labor primary was 26 per cent in NSW in the first two months, it was 30 per cent in March. Over the same time, the Coalition primary vote edged up from 39 to 40 per cent.
While the Labor primary vote was 24 per cent in Victoria in the first two months, it was 27 per cent in March. The Coalition’s core support fell from 38 to 35 per cent over the same period.
The thing about the resolve poll figures are they are bad for Labor but also for the Coalition. A 35% primary vote in Victoria is nothing stellar.
Also the sample size in Queensland is too small to be reporting on.
Will Resolve blot its coffee book this time? Or will the others be wrong?
Ven is Indian Australian – he fell in love with the place in the 60s via test cricket and migrated over. I celebrate him. He’s legit- not enrolled in a cert 2 in international relations just trying to earn hard currency at Uber eats to remit back to the village. A salute thee Ven
Good Morning! It’s your Day 8 of the Election Campaign News and Views Roundup.
Inside the campaign cocoon, sure-footed Albanese outboxes dour Dutton
Dan Jervis-Bardy and Josh Butler
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/05/inside-the-australian-election-campaign-cocoon-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton
The first week of the campaign has shown up an ill-disciplined opposition leader, with Coalition sources saying they are already ‘factoring in a loss’. By Jason Koutsoukis.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2025/04/05/this-going-stick-inside-duttons-trump-thump
Don’t use defence as bargaining chip in US tariff negotiations, warns former PM John Howard
By Insiders host David Speers
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/howard-dutton-defence-tariff-federal-election-2025/105139512
Trying too hard for special tariff deal with Trump could be wrong way to go By Michelle Grattan
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/trying-for-tariff-deal-with-trump-wrong-way-to-go/105135642
Labor would extend a $20,000 instant asset write-off for small businesses for another year, if it wins the election. The commitment falls short of the Coalition’s pledge to offer a permanent $30,000 instant write-off.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/labor-instant-asset-write-off-20-thousand-12-months/105136854
An exclusive survey shows the Labor primary vote has fallen to 30 per cent in NSW and 27 per cent in Victoria in the first three months of this year, down from 33 per cent in each state at the last election.
The survey also reveals a shift in the government’s favour in both states since the start of this year, although it has not been enough to make up all the ground Labor has lost over the past three years.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-primary-vote-exposed-in-key-states-despite-recovery-this-year-20250403-p5lp0r.html
Trump wants to close off America. If he succeeds, the global consequences will be catastrophic. By Peter Hartcher
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/trump-wants-to-close-off-america-if-he-succeeds-the-global-consequences-will-be-catastrophic-20250403-p5loy4.html
We’ve all talked about potential economic consequences for Australia of Trump’s policies. Now they’re happening By Laura Tingle
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-05/potential-economic-consequences-australia-trump-policies-now/105139692
There is not a politician in the country who isn’t nervous about May 3, but there are growing concerns in the Coalition in particular about its disheartening start to the campaign. Paul Bongiorno
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/04/04/dutton-poor-start
Chinese firm Landbridge set to be stripped of its controversial lease of the Port of Darwin
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/chinese-firm-landbridge-set-to-be-stripped-of-its-controversial-lease-of-the-port-of-darwin-20250404-p5lpat.html
Medicare has been a centrepiece of every modern election campaign for Labor. In an interview with The Saturday Paper, the health minister is doubling down, with a focus on Peter Dutton’s record in his role. By Karen Barlow.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/health/2025/04/05/mark-butler-and-labors-medicare-campaign
Albanese admits parachuting ex-premier into NSW contest was a mistake.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-admits-parachuting-ex-premier-into-failed-nsw-contest-was-a-mistake-20250404-p5lp7d.html
As the federal election campaign clocked up week one, Albanese and Dutton were revising history
By Brett Worthington
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/federal-election-wrap-week-one-albanese-dutton-election/105137800
Economic turmoil created by Trump’s tariffs will affect everything from coffee to interest rates
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/economic-turmoil-created-by-trump-s-tariffs-will-affect-everything-from-coffee-to-interest-rates-20250403-p5loy0.html
Home loans were dragged into the election battle this week, when the Coalition vowed to loosen lending rules that it claims are stopping tens of thousands of people from getting a mortgage. The proposed change also divides opinion – with some warning that looser lending could push up house prices, while others say it’s needed to ensure credit isn’t available for the relatively rich alone.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/are-banks-too-cautious-dutton-reignites-credit-for-the-rich-debate-20250402-p5lohe.html
Independents wield the power of balance. By Dr Kerryn Phelps
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/independents-wield-the-power-of-balance-20250401-p5loaq.html
The independents in the 2025 election, their electorate, and what they stand for
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/independent-mp-parliament-politics-teal-federal-election-2025/104990946
Australia’s social media ban is attracting global praise – but we’re no closer to knowing how it would work. By Josh Taylor
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/apr/05/australia-social-media-ban-trial-global-response-implementation
After a short hiatus Running Mates has returned to cast a WA lens over all the weird, wonderful and cringey moments in this federal election campaign. This week we talk punny social media posts, the seats to watch in WA and make some bold predictions about the May 3 poll.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/running-mates-switches-focus-to-the-federal-election-20250404-p5lpak.html
Weekly Fact Check: Exaggerations from Albanese, Dutton lost in Trump’s tariff blitz
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/exaggerations-from-albanese-dutton-lost-in-trump-s-tariff-blitz-20250331-p5lnxf.html
It’s a cemented a longstanding perception of regional Queensland as a conservative bloc — Australia’s ‘Deep North’. But behind the coal, cattle, and climate battles is a much more nuanced picture.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-05/federal-election-2025-what-do-regional-queensland-voters-want/105061300
Labor names late-starter federal election candidates for Grey and Barker in SA
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/election-2025-labor-candidates-south-australia-seats-grey-barker/105138098
Dutton pledges $600 million for WA farm and mine roads, dodges IR law questions. Dodgy Dutton
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/dutton-pledges-600-million-for-wa-farm-and-mine-roads-dodges-ir-law-questions-20250403-p5lout.html
Zempilas unveils new shadow cabinet with a pitch to ‘deregulate’ and reform the public sector 🙄
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/zempilas-unveils-new-shadow-cabinet-with-a-pitch-to-deregulate-and-reform-the-public-sector-20250404-p5lp9t.html
Teenager who threatened Sydney Mosque with ‘Christchurch 2.0’ faces Bunbury court
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/teenager-sydney-mosque-threat-court-bunbury/105138298
SMH Editorial: Implementing NSW drug summit recommendations should not be delayed
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/implementing-nsw-drug-summit-recommendations-should-not-be-delayed-20250404-p5lp6w.html
A man has been charged three months after he allegedly disrupted an NSW ABC reporter’s live cross with an offensive antisemitic outburst.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/abc-live-tv-broadcast-disrupted-by-vile-outburst-on-sydney-street-20250404-p5lp92.html
Labor politicians are openly debating Jacinta Allan’s cratering popularity and what the federal election result in Victorian seats will mean for her future, as the premier attempts to keep her caucus on side.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/wheels-falling-off-dutton-lashes-victorian-government-over-crime-20250402-p5logd.html
Victorian Public housing residents vow to resist eviction after lawsuit thrown out
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/public-housing-residents-vow-to-resist-eviction-after-lawsuit-thrown-out-20250403-p5lp0u.html
Jewish leaders unhappy at decision to block Greens candidate from Melbourne community forum Two established groups push Labor to preference minor party last in ultra-marginal seat of Macnamara
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/05/jewish-leaders-unhappy-at-decision-to-block-greens-candidate-from-melbourne-community-forum-ntwnfb
Trump pointed the finger at a country where the average wage is $11 a day. The crowd laughed
https://www.smh.com.au/world/africa/trump-tariffs-will-literally-devastate-the-world-s-poorest-countries-20250404-p5lp2y.html
Trump extends lifeline for TikTok amid growing trade war with Beijing
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-extends-lifeline-for-tiktok-amid-growing-trade-war-with-beijing-20250405-p5lpdu.html
Is this the beginning of the end for Trump? By Bruce Wolpe
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-trump-20250404-p5lp3v.html
Back to Back Barries: Trump tariffs wreak havoc on week one
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2025/apr/05/back-to-back-barries-trump-tariffs-wreak-havoc-on-week-one
‘Selling a pup’: Is this election a populist contest after Trump? By Stephen Alomes
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2025/2025/04/04/peter-dutton-trumpism-test
Donald Trump in the White House seemed like a plus for Peter Dutton. But after this week, maybe not so much. By Josh Butler
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/05/donald-trump-in-the-white-house-seemed-like-a-plus-for-peter-dutton-but-after-this-week-maybe-not-so-much
With friends like Trump, who needs Aukus? ALP members are demanding an answer. The drums of Labor dissent are beating. Compounded by new US tariffs, they’ll get louder if Albanese is returned on 3 May By Paul Daley
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/04/with-friends-like-trump-who-needs-aukus-alp-members-are-demanding-an-answer
Breaking with the US will be painful for Australia in many ways – but it’s inevitable. The first Australian response to Trump was denial, then (unsuccessful) bargaining. Now there’s anger and depression as the tariffs sink in. Eventually must come acceptance. By John Quiggin
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/04/breaking-with-the-us-will-be-painful-for-australia-in-many-ways-but-its-inevitable
What impact will US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs have on the global economy? What will they do to inflation and growth in Australia? Economists have scrambled to answer those questions, and they say the chances of interest rate cuts have increased in Australia, because concerns could soon shift to supporting economic growth.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/trump-tariffs-impact-economy-inflation-yesterdays-problem/105131364
Ancient Rome used high tariffs to raise money too – and created other economic problems along the way
https://theconversation.com/ancient-rome-used-high-tariffs-to-raise-money-too-and-created-other-economic-problems-along-the-way-253752
No, that’s not what a trade deficit means – and that’s not how you calculate other nations’ tariffs
https://theconversation.com/no-thats-not-what-a-trade-deficit-means-and-thats-not-how-you-calculate-other-nations-tariffs-253830
The key to what is happening on tariffs is the psychology of Donald Trump
By Americas editor John Lyons
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-03/trump-tariffs-roil-the-world-/105131244
Trump says tariff policies ‘WILL NEVER CHANGE’ amid plunging stocks, Chinese response. The president’s sweeping tariff plan has thrown markets into chaos and risks sparking a global trade war.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/04/trump-tariffs-never-change-stock-market-china-030780
The British parliament’s defence committee has launched an inquiry to examine whether the AUKUS partnership is on track under “the impact of geopolitical shifts”. Experts say no evidence has been seen at this time that the inquiry is likely to recommend that the United Kingdom withdraw from the AUKUS program. But what does this inquiry mean to Australia, and how has the Australian government reacted?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/what-uk-s-aukus-inquiry-means-to-australia-explainer/105133266
As Donald Trump silences America’s public broadcasters in order to control the narrative, the ABC seeks a guarantee from the Coalition that its long-term funding will remain. By Martin McKenzie-Murray.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/media/2025/04/05/protecting-the-abc-dutton
‘Everyone is terrified’: Business and government officials are afraid to cross Trump on tariffs
While lobbyists, business leaders, and lawmakers are worried about Donald Trump’s tariffs, there’s a culture of fear in Washington preventing many from speaking out.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/04/trump-tariffs-fear-lobby-business-congress-00006608
‘The Terror Is Real’: An Appalled Tech Industry Is Scared to Criticize Elon Musk. A huge swath of Silicon Valley is horrified by what Elon Musk is doing — but they’re increasingly afraid to say so.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/04/elon-musk-silicon-valley-fear-00260273
As a scientist, I’ve watched climate change be kicked around Australia’s parliament like a political football for decades, with mounting frustration. It’s a history marked by denial, distraction and delay – and Australians are already paying dearly for the failure of former governments to take climate change seriously. By Tim Flannery
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/04/05/coalition-climate-vandals
UK joined European officials at secret dinner to plot radical rearmament fund
A supranational bank would sidestep the European Commission, involve the British, and allow defense-spending off the balance sheet.
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-eu-defense-fund-arms-investment-procurement/
Rutte smiles and Rubio flees as NATO survives a summit. NATO’s boss insisted that the alliance “remains the cornerstone of European security,” despite worries about Trump.
https://www.politico.eu/article/rutte-smiles-and-rubio-flees-as-nato-survives-a-summit/
India could help save an aging Europe. As the continent tilts to the right and its politicians find it hard to explain an influx of refugees from war-torn countries, India is actively trying to present itself as a reasonable partner.
https://www.politico.eu/article/india-europe-relations-aging-trade-migration/
Jordan Bardella: So close to becoming French president — and yet so far. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s reaction to being found guilty of embezzlement only harms her protégé’s chances.
https://www.politico.eu/article/jordan-bardella-french-president-far-right-2026/
St George Pell? Now that would be a miracle. By Thomas Keneally
https://www.smh.com.au/national/st-george-pell-now-that-would-be-a-miracle-20250404-p5lp6s.html
Cartoon Time!
Fiona Katauskas
The fight back against American BBQ culture starts here – the Stephen Collins cartoon
First Dog On the Moon
Martin Rowson on Donald Trump smashing up the world economy
Matt Golding
Joe Benke
From the Internet
Ann Telnaes
SourBoySam @sourboysam.bsky.social
Is this that red wave I was hearing about for so long before the election?
Enjoy!
Hahah yes the bar was open late last night.
Sadly for my haters it validated everything I’ve been contributing here.
Listen to my words- not the tales of Lars in a pickle with the latest merc lease in Vaucluse not being just right entropy talking about international matters despite not having a passport, failed non-silk Andy and his latest brain fart about the submarine’s faulty oxygen refresh rate machine or our eternal lovers Boer and Rexie from Manuka in the ACT etc.
I’m the only thing that needs to be paid attention to. My data sets predicted all this plus more.
This will be the sweetest victory of all, this will be a Victory for the true believers
There’s talk of a bear market. Nasdaq officially in one.
Will the weekend calm the nerves or freak them out more?
A failed business man turned reality TV personality, conman narcisist and likely early dementia sufferer was supposed to be great for the economy.
A coalition of climate vandals / Tim Flannery:
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/04/05/coalition-climate-vandals
“These markers of progress – from shedding our reputation as a global climate laggard to claiming our trophy as the world leader in rooftop solar – give me hope for this election. Australians want action on climate change and are personally investing in clean, affordable energy. I think Australians have been looking for the leaders they need but have struggled to find them in a political system that’s heavily influenced by the fossil fuel industry. This explains the broader trend of voters turning away from the major parties – both of which have prolonged the use of coal, oil and gas – and towards minor parties and independents, many of whom are leading the charge for stronger climate action.
In this term of parliament, independents and the Greens won key concessions on climate laws, including greater transparency and accountability in our Climate Change Act, and placing a hard cap on climate pollution from big polluters. With a hung parliament likely at the upcoming election, a strong, pro-climate cross bench could push Australia’s climate policy further in the next parliamentary term. Our major parties clearly still need a kick in the right direction because the Albanese government still has not gone far enough.
Fossil fuel exports are the elephant in the room for Albanese. While our plans to stop using these polluting fuels at home have greatly improved, we have no plans to stop shipping climate pollution overseas. Whether it’s burnt at home, or offshore, this pollution is still harming Australians. In fact, we’re doubling down, with Labor approving 12 coalmines and five oil and gas projects in the past three years, alongside issuing nine new permits to explore for gas offshore. These coal projects alone would result in 2.5 billion tonnes of climate pollution over their lifetimes, equivalent to about six years of Australia’s current emissions. This undermines the Labor government’s otherwise admirable efforts to cut climate pollution at home, and it has to stop.
As Australians head to the polls, the climate policy battlelines are largely drawn. The Coalition is backing more polluting gas and a decades-away nuclear scheme that spells disaster for our climate. Labor is offering to build on the momentum of its first term and double Australia’s renewable power backed by storage to 82 per cent this decade. The Greens and many community independents are calling for greater ambition, and in the likely event of a hung parliament, they could be in a strong position to ensure it.
The climate wars are not over and voters face a clear choice: more policy chaos and wind-backs, or staying the course to a nation powered by renewables. A hotter, more volatile climate, or a safer future for our children. “
”
Hard Being Greensays:
Saturday, April 5, 2025 at 7:38 am
So what will Dutton do to try and stop the slide? At this rate the LNP could end up going backwards
Needs a game changing policy announcement but do they have one? Unlikely
Possibility is Labor can still go backwards as well with a bigger cross bench. Probably a bit ambitious but I’m predicting it can get to #25in25
At least 1 in 3 voters won’t vote 1 for Labor / LNP
It’s time to shake things up
”
You gave the opening for my rant. Here goes
“At this rate the LNP could end up going backwards
Needs a game changing policy announcement but do they have one? Unlikely’
There is one, which was floated on Dutton Budget reply day but not announced by Dutton: Make Interest rate payments of mortgage tax deductible. (All Tories on PB were licking their lips and drooling about it.
Having said that,
ALP PV is low. In the range 30-33%
So for ALP to get majority, they need storng and tight preference flows from Greens, other small ‘progressive’ parties and ‘progressive’ independents. I don’t care what the above ‘progressive’ outfits put as 1 or even 2 for HOR. But the HTVs of above should preference ALP above LNP. I expect the reciprocal gesture by ALP. They should preference Greens above all the other progressive outfits and put LNP below those progressive outfits.
I am excluding Teals from above because they have their own compulsions and voters, who vote 1 for Teal candidate, are mostly well educated and ex-liberal voters, who are pissed off by Dutton and his current LNP. I think they know what they are doing.
I am enjoying your work LB, keep it up Compadre
About Wall Street…
Thanks for today’s reading C@t!
Peter Dutton has such a tin ear, that he still has this transcript on his web site (from 23/1/2025 interview)
BEN FORDHAM:
Are you happy that Donald Trump’s back?
PETER DUTTON:
Yeah, very happy. He’s, I think, really hit the ground running. He’s obviously somebody with a great deal of business experience, and would’ve learned a lot of lessons from the first presidency, and I think it reflects the priorities of the American people. He’s won the Senate, he’s won the House, and obviously there is an overwhelming view in the United States that they want a different future and I think he’s going to provide that for them.
https://peterdutton.com.au/leader-of-the-opposition-transcript-interview-with-ben-fordham-2gb-8/
Outside left ! As I live and breathe !
Are you going to the lady Denman thing today? I’m thinking of driving the beast over to it and parking it next to the cunstance tent.
Outsideleft ladies and gentlemen:
Almost the sole reason Gilmore /south coast went from blue ribbon Lib to double red at both levels of gov.
Time waits for no one- need to run the Labrador and golden retriever uo to the beach for our swim.
I’m thinking I’ll just walk them the 39 meters instead of risk driving to plantation point.
From DP
”
Breaking with the US will be painful for Australia in many ways – but it’s inevitable. The first Australian response to Trump was denial, then (unsuccessful) bargaining. Now there’s anger and depression as the tariffs sink in. Eventually must come acceptance. By John Quiggin
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/04/breaking-with-the-us-will-be-painful-for-australia-in-many-ways-but-its-inevitable
“Now there’s anger and depression as the tariffs sink in” Hope that is first directed in May federal election at Dutton and LNP because Dutton is Trump mini-me
B. S. Fairmansays:
Saturday, April 5, 2025 at 7:30 am
The big drop in oil will flow through to the pumps in a couple of weeks. So fuel prices are likely to be about 10 to 15 cents per litre at the time of the election.
So we don’t really need DOGEy Dutton’s stunt Fuel Excise cut then?
As Neil Sedaka wrote “down dooby-do down down”
None of it positive! He’s failed with just about every business venture he’s ever started.
What he is good at is marketing himself.
Thanks, ‘Fess. The problem now is becoming, what to leave out? There’s an overwhelming tide of content out there. 😆
Thanks for the curation c@t. We’ll have a good chat at the next conference .
As I say to all that know my identity, I just ask that dear mother isn’t briefed on my PB naughtiness
DJI: -5.5% (a 52 week low).
S&P: -5.97%(about -6%)(a 52 week low) (dropped 1800 points in 52 weeks)
Nasdaq: -7.51% (dropped 963 points in 1 day.) (52 week low)
A stunning reversal of fortunes
https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/04/04/judge-orders-trump-administration-bring-back-md-man-mistakenly-deported/