A garden variety federal poll from YouGov, as distinct from its massive MRP endeavour last week, finds both major parties down on the primary vote since the last such poll a fortnight ago: Labor by one to 30% and the Coalition by two to 35%, with the Greens and One Nation steady at 13% and 7% respectively, Trumpet of Patriots up from 1% to 2%, and independents up two to 10%. Labor has recovered a 51-49 lead it lost with a return to 50-50 at the last poll, based on a respondent-allocated preferences split that makes use of the voluminous data from the MRP polling.
The poll adds to the marked downward trajectory of Peter Dutton’s recent personal ratings, his approval down four to 38% and disapproval up six to 53%. Anthony Albanese is up three to 44% and steady on 50%. There is nonetheless only a modest change on preferred prime minister, with Albanese’s lead out from 45-40 to 45-38. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1622.
Bass alp candidate no chance in tassie now said she wants to end native logging.
Had to walk that back later today in a damaging backdown as it’s not alp policy.
Abc Online now.
Reminds me of candidates in Wannon and Hunter who support off shore wind-farms they are also no chance locals hate them.
Opinion polls don’t matter when they restrict the right to vote
Hey BT Says,
Saw your moniker on the site.
Gosh, I got the W.A. election around the wrong way a bit. Thought it would be tighter, but it looks like it’s settled at around 57-43. {I thought it would be around 53-47}.
You may have already seen, but a recent YouGov Fed poll came out for W.A.
Link: https://demosau.com/news/wa-federal-poll-labor-fairing-better-than-in-eastern-states-but-key-seats-at-risk/
bobsays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 9:24 pm
The Insurrection Act isn’t martial law. It only lets the President, the Commander In Chief of the US Military, call up the Military to act as the President directs based on what the President decides what the law should be.
Wait.. that sounds a lot like martial law..
===========================================================
So he can execute anyone he wants for what he considers treason?
All you tree haters need to stop your hate.
Leave Palawa alone.
PP
Never did anyway.
I think Labor should make a big play for suburban Brisbane seats: Dickson, Petrie, Bonner, Forde, Longman, Bowman.
These s voted labor in the state election 6 months ago, when the government fell because of a fall in support outside Brisbane.
Brisbane stuck with Labor because they don’t trust local LNP.
And, now LNP in power, the stadium drama too ,
Brisbanites like to have different levels of government in power; Howard and Beattie, Morrison and Anna P,
Now, they have a reason to even things up.
Let’s not just worry about Victorian seats. In 1990, Labor lost seats there but held on with gains in QLD( and northern NSW).
If Brisbane was willing to elect 3 greens last time, why can’t Labor expect to grab some seats in a political crisis ? ( I dare say people are aware their superannuation funds are in decline , suddenly. Amongst other bad news ).
I had to google 14-88 to find out what on earth it was. Can’t believe people give this stuff the light of day. Yes I expect if Trump knew of that also, then he would send a ‘signal’ to get everyone excited.
I think people are going to feel very silly in 3 years time. I don’t expect them to love Trump any more but if they read all the silly predictions and ‘interpretations’ that they typed in 2025 they will blush.
The main threads on here don’t improve, you just have to laugh or else you would cry.
“So he can execute anyone he wants for what he considers treason?”
The Supreme Court already said he could do that back when Biden was in charge.
Trump reminds me of days gone by.
A lot of his supporters (the MAGA mob) hate their opponents so much they don’t care what or how Trump does anything as long as he sticks it to the woke/latte-sipping/gender confused/left loonies who the rabid right detest.
If, like Samson, it means bringing the temple down on them too they don’t care as this will still wipe out the above woke/latte-sipping etc mob.
We see it here with the the few rabid right who come here to tell the lefties what a pack of weak kneed weasels they are, and tell us of their love for all things Trump.
We even had one such Trump fan today blaming “the left” for the Russian invasion of Ukraine” today here on PB.
When the Trump thing comes to a bad end – as it is bound to – there will not be one peep from these warped individuals.
They will be long gone as will their clay-footed degenerate currently in the White House.
sustainable snail says:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 9:28 pm
Opinion polls don’t matter when they restrict the right to vote
=======================
What does this post mean?
Hard to tell if my super’s been nicked or that’s just the Trump effect.
Idiot Piper
Which “natives” are going to be logged?
Boy, do you bandy the word “hate” around.
have you seen the USA?
BTSays @ #508 Friday, April 4th, 2025 – 9:32 pm
Yeah, that’s how they’re gonna get their opponents. It’s all a prank, man, hahaha, until that moment when it isn’t, and you get dealt with as an enemy of the state.
Nadia88
Just saw your post before I left!
Well done to you for the mea culpa on WA – but I thought you did add a health warning to your prediction.
I think the lacklustre debate performance knocked back the opposition leader’s little bit of momentum she had at what was a very difficult election to lead at.
Thanks – I’ll take a look at that Demos federal poll.
All the trees and put tariffs on the fairy penquins
“The main threads on here don’t improve”
Yes what we need are more Trump apologists they lift the standards immensely
Donald Gravitas Big Thinker Duttonsays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 9:38 pm
“The main threads on here don’t improve”
Yes what we need are more Trump apologists they lift the standards immensely
======================================================
You can never have to many nuts.
Marshall laww Bruce Mathers
I wonder when psephology was last attempted on this thread.
I think Dutton portrays more energy but he’s got to give people a few more specifics to hang their hat on if he’s to win over undecideds, who know they don’t like the current lot but want more positive reasons to vote the other lot.
Otherwise voters will give the current lot another go because, well just because they’ve only had one go and, who knows, they MIGHT make a better job if we give them a second. Fair dinkum and all that.
(the above not my words but those of the undecided voter 🙂 )
dutton will follow trump
how about we don’t just rely on hindsight
do you want this here????
dutton will already cost us each thousands
and that is just what he has told us
REMEMBER ABBOTT?
MORRISON?
Who is really into democracy out of these people?
BTSays @ #521 Friday, April 4th, 2025 – 9:43 pm
It’s Friday night, there’s no new polls and the biggest news at the moment is God-King Trump’s Tariffs.
I wish we had any polling news at the moment but we don’t.
BTSays says:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 9:43 pm
I wonder when psephology was last attempted on this thread.
I think Dutton portrays more energy but he’s got to give people a few more specifics to hang their hat on if he’s to win over undecideds, who know they don’t like the current lot but want more positive reasons to vote the other lot.
Otherwise voters will give the current lot another go because, well just because they’ve only had one go and, who knows, they MIGHT make a better job if we give them a second. Fair dinkum and all that.
(the above not my words but those of the undecided voter )
__________
We get plenty of opinions. Let me know when you get to the psephology 😉
BTSays
So the dragging off the streets by masked ICE goons of legal US residents subsequently placed in chains, heads shaved, no habeas corpus, cosplay Queen and dog killer Kristi Noem posing in front of the hell-hole El Salvador slave prison is no cause for concern? That’s just one example, I could go on and on about the myriad ways that this administration has trashed democracy in favour of an ugly authoritarian kakistocracy. Mate, take your blinkers off, you sound delusional.
sustainable snailsays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 9:38 pm
All the trees and put tariffs on the fairy penquins
_____________________
R U OK?
Had a big week ?
Bellwether says:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 9:53 pm
BTSays
So the dragging off the streets by masked ICE goons of legal US residents subsequently placed in chains, heads shaved, no habeas corpus, cosplay Queen and dog killer Kristi Noem posing in front of the hell-hole El Salvador slave prison is no cause for concern? That’s just one example, I could go on and on about the myriad ways that this administration has trashed democracy in favour of an ugly authoritarian kakistocracy. Mate, take your blinkers off, you sound delusional.
__________
Everything is fine. Comical BTSays so 🙂
Donald Gravitas Big Thinker Dutton:
Yes what we need are more Trump apologists they lift the standards immensely
Trump apologists have much to boast about. Donald Trump might well become the first US President to preside over two recessions, one per each term. This would be quite an accomplishment.
BTSays says:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 9:43 pm
I wonder when psephology was last attempted on this thread.
================
BT Says,
Some of us are into a bit of psephology (or at least try).
The site is more dominated atm by Trump, which doesn’t really interest me as that election is done and dusted. He’ll face the public in Nov.2026, and going by the recent by-elections in Florida, it looks like he’s in for an almighty smack.
Ummm.. just saw your post regarding 14-88 @ 9.32pm
I had no idea that “88” was code language for that filth.
I use 88 on my moniker, simply because it is my birth year and I also have 88 in my email which WB has on file. I’ve never been checked on it by the site host/his staff or other posters (not that you have either).
Regardless, having had it pointed out, I will simply change my moniker to nadia ( and drop the “88”).
If another “nadia” turns up on the site, then I suppose WB will deal with it.
So from today – nadia88 is now simply nadia.
abbott morrison and (dutton’s) bestie/crush rineheart celebrating like its 1999 at mar a lago
nothing to see here for democracy
it’s not ok to be not ok in a dutton future, no.
The weeks seem to get bigger with worry, yes.
Shogunsays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 9:56 pm
Donald Gravitas Big Thinker Dutton:
Yes what we need are more Trump apologists they lift the standards immensely
Trump apologists have much to boast about. Donald Trump might well become the first US President to preside over two recessions, one per each term. This would be quite an accomplishment.
=================================================
Why stop at just two? I think he could achieve three just in this term alone. His biggest problem will be getting out of them so he can go into a new one. So he might just achieve one big long one instead, as he appears to have no exit strategy for once he has gone into recession.
N88 how do you feel about this election honestly always said that both major parties on election night’s not going to be happy but I’m starting to think labour probably gonna be the only happy party on election night
BTSays something, then does the opposite.
nadia (88) agrees with BTSays about the desire to have more psephology on the site…Admits that she got said psephology wrong wrt the WA election.
I think the balance is about right. Views about whatever takes our fancy on the day AND psephology.
Nadia
I’m quite sure that there’s no reason not to use 14 or 88 still for non-nefarious purposes!
But I would be hesitant to use both together now I’ve learnt it’s such a thing for both far rightists and for conspiracy theorists about alleged far rightists.
That’s if I remember if ever the day comes up that 1488 is a logical number to use
Kidnapping people off the street is my favourite part of democracy.
ScromoII,
There was a poll released tonight! It was the ‘A Current Affair’ poll. And you’ll be pleased to know it had Dutton and the Coalition winning in a canter.
Of course, the audience for ‘A Current Affair’ tends to be a tad self-selecting for those folk who love a good chase down the street after a fraudster. 😀
leftieBrawler (re antivirus earlier today) – this is the first I’ve heard of such an issue for a while but I’ll investigate, ta.
i dunno could you create a persona really into polls so you can’t see a slant to the information they provide as balanced? Dunno, i’m just a snail fighting for sustainability.
Change purse election
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/editorial/2025/03/29/change-purse-election
“So this is it: a choice between a few dollars a week in tax cuts or a couple of cents off petrol for a year, an election fought in a change purse by two men with the charisma of loose coins.
The world is on the precipice of monumental change, the rules-based order is breaking down, global heating is a worsening and more urgent catastrophe, and Australia is about to vote on the difference of a couple of bucks.
Neither side of politics has laid out a vision for the country. The Coalition promises to get Australia “back on track”. Labor says we are “turning the corner, together”. Both sound like directions to the local shops.
….
Ambition disappears in a cost-of-living election. There are no big ideas. There are no grand appeals to the future. Everything becomes about how much each side can promise before they begin to appear irresponsible. The going rate is 70 cents a day.
It is no great surprise that faith in democracy has collapsed. The more complex the world becomes, the more inadequate is the leadership there to confront it. As Barry Jones wrote last week, many of the key figures in our recent political history, the people who did most to change the country, would be unlikely to get preselection with the major parties today.
The system has been broken from the inside. Talent has been the first casualty. There is no one pushing to reimagine the country. No one is there remaking our unequal school system. No one is pushing for a climate policy that cuts emissions with the urgency that is needed. No one is ready to radically reform the housing market.
The only changes to the tax system are cheap attempts to buy votes. There is no meaningful engagement with the erraticism of the United States alliance. The major promise of the 2022 campaign, the establishment of an anti-corruption commission, has done nothing of significance beyond embarrass itself.”
This would have to be the most boring election campaign ever, so lack-lustre, so uninspiring, so pedestrian. No big surprise increasing numbers of people have such low regard for politicians in general.
Where are the leaders with the big ideas who are capable of doing what is required to make the world a better place before it crashes and burns?
“Kidnapping people off the street is my favourite part of democracy.”
Yeah and what about Dutton?
All good, BT Says.
I’ll stick with “nadia” now that I’ve done a search of “14-88” on google. Not my scene.
Dutton has praised trump whose regime has taken people off the street for protesting to support Gaza and barred people from entering the US as they had posted a negative post about Trump online.
We have something serious to worry about this. Be like Canada not the US. Say No To Dutton.
It will take a little while fit the Trump impact of Chumps Tariff brain fart to develop.. if it goes the way China predict there will be a real blood bath on the stock market, not the nose bleed being suffered now.
NYT…
Trump’s Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates With 34% Tariffs
The Chinese government said it would match President Trump’s tariff, and also barred a group of American companies from doing business in China.
“If the Trump administration’s hope is to pressure China to cave in, then it’ll be a non-starter,” he said.
Mr. Wang said Beijing is also betting that Mr. Trump will come under growing pressure at home to ease some of his tariffs because of the harm it might do to the U.S. economy.
“China is in a better position to win this round of trade frictions,” Mr. Wang said.
China has been getting ready for the last 4 years,,
This is not a game. We have one more chance. Choose Dutton and all hell will break here just like now in the US.
Quentin Rountree says:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 10:04 pm
N88 how do you feel about this election honestly always said that both major parties on election night’s not going to be happy but I’m starting to think labour probably gonna be the only happy party on election night.
============
Hey QR, good to see you around.
No change for me. I’m sticking with an ALP minority, with the Greens and a few Teals.
Polling in QLD for the ALP is appalling – 24% on the latest YouGov (check the poll data tabs), &
polling in Vic for the ALP has improved somewhat but is still not flash. Lib vote is down a bit in Vic with the Indie vote up. The YouGov poll dated Apr-3 has the Green vote in VIC “falling off a cliff”, but it’s just one poll.
The ALP vote in W.A. & S.A. doesn’t really matter as they are at the high tide mark in those states.
The ALP vote appears to be holding up in both those states, probably due to their excellent Premiers.
As usual, it looks like it’s the western & northern suburbs of Sydney that will decide the next PM.
I’m sorry if I haven’t seen a reply when there was one but is Picton right about Federal Labor’s performance on aged care and NDIS a major reason the SA public hospital system is a debacle and can’t get off the front page?
The Libs really stuffed up with Flint in Boothby. A more Boothby friendly candidate and they would have won. They’re still in with a decent chance.
The USA is withdrawing from the global rules based order, even the global economy. Trump’s first term could be seen as an aberration. Not now – things have changed for good. This requires an urgent reorientation of Australia’s economic and foreign policy.
John Quiggin: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/04/breaking-with-the-us-will-be-painful-for-australia-in-many-ways-but-its-inevitable
The latest YouGov poll supports the continuing trend showing the Coalition weakening primary vote. They are now likely in a situation where even Coalition minority government is unlikely.
At present I think it’s 50/50 Labor minority or Labor majority. Don’t believe the Coalition can halt/reverse the trend.
Nadia, Labor is up in Qld cf last election on PB track. Best performing state relative to last election on PB tracker?