A garden variety federal poll from YouGov, as distinct from its massive MRP endeavour last week, finds both major parties down on the primary vote since the last such poll a fortnight ago: Labor by one to 30% and the Coalition by two to 35%, with the Greens and One Nation steady at 13% and 7% respectively, Trumpet of Patriots up from 1% to 2%, and independents up two to 10%. Labor has recovered a 51-49 lead it lost with a return to 50-50 at the last poll, based on a respondent-allocated preferences split that makes use of the voluminous data from the MRP polling.
The poll adds to the marked downward trajectory of Peter Dutton’s recent personal ratings, his approval down four to 38% and disapproval up six to 53%. Anthony Albanese is up three to 44% and steady on 50%. There is nonetheless only a modest change on preferred prime minister, with Albanese’s lead out from 45-40 to 45-38. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1622.
Paul A yet another Trump cultist.
Labor foreshadowing the announcement. From two days ago: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-02/pm-more-to-say-about-china-darwin-port-lease/105129244
Griff says Friday, April 4, 2025 at 8:06 pm
I think that’s an incisive observation 🙂
does anyone know more about the comment/rumour going round that trump is going to declare martial law on April 20? What is this about?
Paul A at 7.49pm
I don’t owe you because I am happy enough for Peter C to keep posting to the forum. He’s something of an enigma: eg, is he a wealthy fixture of the exclusive Melbourne scene or is he an age pensioner with a health care card? If he keeps posting, we might eventually find out.
The only posters I ever wanted to see barred from this forum was an obnoxious sexist called bemused and a repulsive pro-Russian tankie whose name eludes me.
steve davissays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 8:10 pm
Paul A yet another Trump cultist.
===
All the way with Donny. Love him.
How about you. You’re one of those leftie loonies are you.
You probably reckon blokes can give birth to babies.
You’re a odd poster steve davis, but support your wacko club if you like.
Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump
OK, Footy time
“Guy Rundle, Australia’s most incisive political writer”
Lulz
“No teal-equivalent has emerged on the Labor side”
Apart from the Greens of course. So much incisivement you could see it from the moon.
Griffsays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 8:11 pm
Labor foreshadowing the announcement. From two days ago: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-02/pm-more-to-say-about-china-darwin-port-lease/105129244
====================================================
Labor in discussion on this since November 2024, to sort out the details. Lazy Dutton who doesn’t do policy. Riding on Labor’s work again.
Paul A
You couldnt be more unhinged in that last post.
Sustainable snail,
I haven’t heard that rumour, and under normal circumstances would dismiss it as the ranting of a swivel-eyed conspiracy theorist. Unfortuantely Trump is so obviously bereft of marbles there remains a small but terrifying doubt that it might actually be true.
sustainable snail @ #455 Friday, April 4th, 2025 – 8:15 pm
Well, um, that would be incredibly disturbing if it does happen because that’s Hitler’s birthday.
I mean I hope it doesn’t happen but if he chooses that date to go full Fourth Reich mode then it’s going to be a very bad day for the world.
wow ok so its a nazi thing
its a bit like light versus dark aye
look after each other
One Love
I believe that the rumour re Trump and martial law relates to some report he has demanded from Noem and Hegseth re the southern border by April 20. The expectation is that, I’d he isn’t happy with the report, he will direct the military to secure the border using his powers re insurrection and alien enemies.
Apparently relatively few people are attempting to cross at the moment, but he’s always got the option of going mental about fentanyl. After all, he claims he’s going to be able to collect tariffs on smuggled fentanyl, and he might need the troops for that.
Kirsdarke,
That was an impressive pick-up about Hitler’s birthday. I’m not going to ask how you knew that.
Supposedly this 90 day report gets delivered to Trump on April 20th. Probably all BS but who knows with Trump?
“The clock is ticking down on a crucial but little-noticed part of President Donald Trump’s first round of executive orders — the one tasking the secretaries of the Department of Defense and Department of Homeland Security to submit a joint report, within 90 days, recommending “whether to invoke the Insurrection Act.”
https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/openforum/article/insurrection-act-president-trump-20201819.php
“On April 20, 2025 or before, Trump is preparing to invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807 under a false/manufactured pretense that the southern border is under invasion. It will be the precursor to martial law in America. ”
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1077620615994293/posts/2147647368991607/
Ante Meridian says:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 8:21 pm
Sustainable snail,
I haven’t heard that rumour, and under normal circumstances would dismiss it as the ranting of a swivel-eyed conspiracy theorist. Unfortuantely Trump is so obviously bereft of marbles there remains a small but terrifying doubt that it might actually be true.
_________
Not a rumour. A possibility: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/declaring-a-national-emergency-at-the-southern-border-of-the-united-states/
Check Section 6b.
Edit: Entropy has the news.
Sustainable snail Trump asked home affairs and military to prepare a report within 90 days about whether it would be necessary to invoke the Insurrection Act to enable the enforcement of law particularly in regards to illegal arrivals.
That 90 days is about up.
Sustainable snail
Kyle Kulinski covered the theory of a potential April 20 martial law declaration by Trump a couple of weeks ago here:
https://youtu.be/xebVcfN5C6s?si=edo0U4yXLau8uYV2
Ante Meridian @ #466 Friday, April 4th, 2025 – 8:27 pm
I’ll answer anyway, just that I watched the 2004 film Downfall recently and it covered the last few weeks of Hitler’s rule until he shot himself in his bunker, his birthday included.
BTW, declaring a national emergency at the border isn’t quite the same thing as declaring martial law. It’s better when the anti-Trump folks don’t exaggerate things.
Any polls releasing tonight?
April 20 is also Intergalactic Alien Solidarity Day. Aliens that live closer by might need some Solidarity too!
I think we can say, in the absence of Congress suddenly growing some goodies, that the US is virtually a dictatorship. 🙁
Vensays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 7:33 pm
Indian Parliamentary opposition is going hard on Modi on 27% Trump tariffs on Indian goods because
1. Modi/Modi government is silent on that at the moment.
2. Modi called Trump ‘my friend ‘
3. It will Indian people and manufacturers
_____________________
“Friend of America” india and “close ally” Israel get a higher rate … but we were assured that known trump hater Kevin Rudd would ger Australia punished.
Trump-fans, what happened!?
Macrobusiness a good example of the Rudd derangement syndrome
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/04/australia-well-endowed-with-rudd-alternative/
Citizen – Somewhere in America there is a computer system which has a code for all the different countries & territories. Places like Norfolk Island and Heard and McDonald Islands exist in that system probably because they have separate Exclusive Economic Zone for fishing etc.
And someone using that computer system has at some stage gotten a bit confused and entered Norfolk Island code by mistake. And that happens a few times in a year and suddenly there is a record of trade when there was none in reality.
Meher baba agree however invoking the Insurrection Act is close to declaring martial law. Trump didn’t ask for the review unless he wanted to use it at some point.
I was a dictatorship sceptic but I am being worn down by Trump’s actions.
Griff: it depresses me that I can’t ask you if you made up Intergalactic Alien Solidarity Day because I already know what the answer is going to be.
The really interesting question is why it’s on the same day as Hitler’s birthday. Was Hitler an alien? Are he and Elvis now living in the Andromeda Galaxy?
We need answers.
I’ve seen Der Untergang. Great movie.
It was criticised for humanising the Nazis, especially Hitler, but that was what I liked about it. Unlike Disney productions where evil is always ugly and slimy and bleeding obvious, this movie showed how we have to be constantly on guard because the face of evil is not obvious, it looks just like normal people.
davidwh says:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 8:37 pm
Meher baba agree however invoking the Insurrection Act is close to declaring martial law. Trump didn’t ask for the review unless he wanted to use it at some point.
I was a dictatorship sceptic but I am being worn down by Trump’s actions.
_________
Meher baba has already admitted surprise at recent events a la Trump. I am not sure whether meher baba has adequately adjusted expectations for future events.
India does have some fairly major trade barriers. They are nowhere near where they were 40 years ago however. Back then, it was near impossible to take a profit out of the country. An example was movie royalties – the US studios had their profits embargoed for production in India – this is why some films had bits filmed in India like Close encounters of the 3rd Kind and Octopussy.
meher baba says:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 8:39 pm
Griff: it depresses me that I can’t ask you if you made up Intergalactic Alien Solidarity Day because I already know what the answer is going to be.
The really interesting question is why it’s on the same day as Hitler’s birthday. Was Hitler an alien? Are he and Elvis now living in the Andromeda Galaxy?
We need answers.
_________
Are you are card carrying Pastafarian as well? We have much to discuss when we next meet! 🙂
Guy Rundle sent a text message to the Patricia Karvelas show on the ABC during a segment about statistics relating to sexual assault. He made a point about how the concept of what counts as sexual assault has changed over time, so comparing the current numbers with past numbers can give an inflated sense of how much worse the situation has become. But he did it clumsily and insensitively by saying something like “Today every grope is a sexual assault.” Then Crikey did some virtue-signalling by dropping him as one of their writers even though he was their best writer. I think they should have accepted his apology and his efforts to make amends instead of pretending that this was an offence that warranted his exile from the publication.
April 20 is also Mrs D’s birthday. What a surprise she shares it with Hitler.
It’s almost enough for me to believe in astrology.
Ante Meridian @ #481 Friday, April 4th, 2025 – 8:41 pm
Yeah, honestly the thing that disturbed me the most about it was the character of Eva Braun. She simultaneously knew they were doomed and yet she insisted on acting as though nothing wrong was happening until the very end. She was like a child, enchanted by the allure of the Fuehrer.
And also the Goebbels. Joseph was flip-flopping between lies and truth and then he just let his wife Magda murder all of their children, and then each other.
meher baba says Friday, April 4, 2025 at 8:39 pm
Apparently tomorrow is First Contact Day so maybe you can ask then. It’s also National Deep Dish Pizza Day so perhaps you can have the conversation over a pizza.
https://www.daysoftheyear.com/
April 20 is 90 days after Trump’s inauguration for his second term. On day 1 he signed an Executive Order declaring an emergency on the Southern border. This required Defence and Homeland Security to submit a joint report as to whether the Insurrection Act of 1807 should be invoked.
April 20 is also the birthday of a well-known 20th Century dictator.
The Insurrection Act isn’t martial law.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/will-trump-declare-martial-law-the-rumor-explored/ar-AA1B5Rt4#
Of course Trump wouldn’t know the difference. Still, while there’s a lot of weird stuff going on, this is probably just a rumour.
I’m at my third wedding in four years. The only slight problem is that it’s the same groom.
Mavis @ #489 Friday, April 4th, 2025 – 8:59 pm
I imagine a lot of King Henry VIII’s courtiers felt the same way.
April 20 sounds like a day to smoke the house with gum leaves and ensure you have prepper stashed your canned tomatoes, nonetheless.
“I think we can say, in the absence of Congress suddenly growing some goodies, that the US is virtually a dictatorship. ”
I think we can say that this is utter cobblers and American democracy and strength is alive and well, however radical and distasteful many may find the current administration’s actions. Let’s leave off the hyperbole.
I am quite sure that, if informed of dates like Hitler’s birthday, Trump WOULD announce new laws and executive orders just for the wind-up to feed, for example, the hysterics and conspiracy theories on sites such as this one and provoke yet another round of ‘moral outrage’ by people who can’t see further than the end of their nose what Trump is actually executing or planning.
A master of chaos and distraction to achieve his ends.
“I’m at my third wedding in four years. The only slight problem is that it’s the same groom.”
Are you sure it’s not you? 🙂
“I am quite sure that, if informed of dates like Hitler’s birthday, Trump WOULD announce new laws and executive orders just for the wind-up to feed, for example, the hysterics and conspiracy theories on sites such as this one and provoke yet another round of ‘moral outrage’ by people who can’t see further than the end of their nose what Trump is actually executing or planning.”
Yeah it must be all just a wind up?
Good people don’t engineer chaos to achieve their ends. Chaos is not a ladder to anything good.
sustainable snail @ #494 Friday, April 4th, 2025 – 9:13 pm
Yeah, like all these coincidences about Trump’s MAGA supporters playing cute with all the 14-88 references mean nothing.
as light as day
he makes no fucking sense
happy to burn a planet
And top all that off, April 19th is the 250th Anniversary of the start of the Revolutionary war.
The Insurrection Act isn’t martial law. It only lets the President, the Commander In Chief of the US Military, call up the Military to act as the President directs based on what the President decides what the law should be.
Wait.. that sounds a lot like martial law..
ScromoII says:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 8:32 pm
Any polls releasing tonight?
=====================
Newspoll was releasing a poll every week in the lead up to the 2022 election.
They’ll all be out there polling, but when they drop who knows.
We should have a Redbridge & Demos AU poll soon, hopefully over the weekend.