Week one miscellany: Macnamara, hung parliament scenarios and more (open thread)

Number-crunching for the complex contest for the inner Melbourne seat of Macnamara, among other things.

Looming polls that I’m aware of include a YouGov poll that should be out early tomorrow and the latest instalment of the RedBridge Group marginal seat tracking poll to follow the next day. Before proceeding with a post covering miscellaneous bits and pieces from the federal campaign, some further recent posts for your consideration: one on the resolution of the Western Australian election count; one on state polling in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland; and a guest post from Adrian Beaumont on developments in Canada and the United States, including yesterday’s high-profile Wisconsin Supreme Court election.

• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports “senior Labor figures” in Macnamara (one of whom would seem to be former state minister and vocal Israel supporter Philip Dalidakis) are advocating “open ticket” how-to-vote cards offering no recommendation beyond the first preference, rather than favouring the Greens over the Liberals. At issue is the Greens’ stance on Israel in a seat whose 10% Jewish population ranks second in the country behind Wentworth, where Labor’s handling of the Greens is of little consequence. Ballot paper and preference flow data suggests that around 30% of Labor voters follow the how-to-vote card, and three-quarters of those who don’t put the Greens ahead of the Liberals of their own volition. With Labor accounting for roughly 30% of the vote in the seat, an open ticket would provide about 2% of a required Liberal swing of upwards of 10% if they are to defeat the Greens. That would only apply if Labor incumbent Josh Burns ran third in a seat where there was little to separate Labor, Liberal and the Greens on the primary vote in 2022. If Burns did make the final count, it would take a swing of around 12% to dislodge him he faced the Liberals, and around 6% if he faced the Greens.

• Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie became the first cross-bencher to offer any indication as to which party she would likely support in the event of a hung parliament, saying her constituents would favour the Coalition. She based this on the complexion of the state seats corresponding with Mayo, notwithstanding that Labor won the two-party preferred count in Mayo ahead of the Liberals by 51.6% to 48.4% in 2022. Sharkie qualified this by saying she would “absolutely talk to both sides but it would ultimately depend where the numbers sit and who can form stable government”.

• Perhaps by way of pushing back against last week’s JWS Research poll in the News Corp papers showing Liberal candidate Tim Wilson with a 54-46 lead over teal incumbent Zoe Daniel in Goldstein, Climate 200 has provided The Australian with a uComms poll showing exactly the reverse. The only information provided on the primary vote in the report is that Wilson had more of it than Daniel, as indeed he did when Daniel defeated him in 2022. The poll was conducted March 18 to 25, and follows a similar poll from late February that had Daniel leading 52-48.

• Nine Newspapers has a useful feature highlighting the movements of the two party leaders, and Crikey has something similar tracking electorates that have been targeted with locally specific election promises (pork barrelling, if you will).

Some late-starting candidates of note:

• The Liberal candidate for Chris Bowen’s seat of McMahon will be Carmen Lazar, who until last September was a Labor member of Fairfield City Council. Lazar criticised the party’s failure to support a local push for an MRI machine at Fairfield Hospital at the time she stood aside from council. Paul Karp of the Financial Review further reports she was aggrieved that David Saliba won Labor preselection ahead of her for the state seat of Fairfield.

• Labor’s candidate in Forrest is Tabitha Dowding, policy adviser to state Agriculture Minister Jackie Jarvis and granddaughter of former Labor Premier Peter Dowding.

• Andrew Thaler, who has gained some notoriety as a Snowy Monaro Regional councillor, is running as an independent in Eden-Monaro.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

664 comments on “Week one miscellany: Macnamara, hung parliament scenarios and more (open thread)”

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  1. Seems odd and irrational that a fair number of diehard Labor supporters here seem to prefer to lend their preference to potentially electing a hard right Dutton LNP govt over a pesky, and in most seats an inconsequential Green candidate. On a range of social policies the Greens are advocating for positions that a social democratic party and it’s supporters would at least prefer over the LNP alternative. The motivation from some Labor voters here seems to be borne more out of an emotional resentment of the Greens rather than actual ideology which is probably caused by them attracting votes off Labor and not rolling over to them on policies such as the HAFF without negotiation. It looks quite petty.

  2. Quentin Rowntree – the U.S. polls turned out to be fake, including the Ann Selzer poll.
    Centre was obviously looking at other things and not wasting his time on AnnSelzer fraud.

    There were a couple of posters on this site who picked a Trump win. Centre was one, Scomo2 was another. I think Diogenes as well. I can’t remember who else but it’s all in the U.S. threads somewhere.
    There were only about 10 posters from memory who picked Trump (me being another). Someone actually picked the fucken House of Reps and Senate result too. It is worth reading their posts because they have a good understanding of politics, and not “make believe fake polling”.

    OK enough tonight. Footy is done.
    Don’t think the Bronco’s will get the Premiership though Centre. Panthers will start to come good soon.

  3. nathsays:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 10:43 pm
    paul Asays:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 10:39 pm
    Dow Jones heading for an almighty drop when it opens tonight, I think in about 2 hours, 20 mins.
    Looks like it will be the 4th largest fall on record by volume.

    Go Trump!
    __________________
    I’ll be buying the dip. Just got to make sure its deep enough to make it worthwhile.
    =====================================================

    USA March Quarter GDP comes out April 30th in USA. If this is as bad as some expect the share market may take another tumble.

  4. mjsays:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 11:04 pm
    Seems odd and irrational that a fair number of diehard Labor supporters here seem to prefer to lend their preference to potentially electing a hard right Dutton LNP
    ===================================================

    It is probably not a true reflection of Labor supporters in general though. It probably more reflects how well some Greens posters have managed to annoy some Labor posters on here.

  6. Today’s betting odds since Centre doesn’t seem to enjoy posting them anymore. ALP mentioned first:
    TAB – 1.55 2.40
    Sportsbet – 1.61 2.25
    PointsBet – 1.62 2.30

  8. Trump introduces his tariff plan with a bizarre and embarrassing history lesson

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/4/2/2314164/-Trump-s-bizarre-ignorant-history-lesson-would-have-received-an-F-in-grade-school?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “On Wednesday afternoon, an increasingly unmoored man introduced his tariff plan with a history lesson in the form of a farcical tale told by an idiot. In his words:

    “In 1913, for reasons unknown to mankind, they established the income tax so that citizens rather than foreign countries would start paying the money necessary to run our government.”

    They? Who are these “they” who had no idea why they were doing what they were doing? Of course, they did. The federal government first considered an income tax during the War of 1812. Established one during the Civil War (1861) — which was repealed in 1872. And Congress created the IRS in 1862.

    Republican President Teddy Roosevelt proposed an inheritance and income tax in 1906 when he said:

    “There is every reason why, when next our system of taxation is revised, the National Government should impose a graduated inheritance tax, and, if possible, a graduated income tax.”

  9. To be clear I don’t mind if Australia bans beef from everywhere but we can’t then bitch and moan when other nations impose their own controls.

  11. paul A says:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 10:47 pm

    “Don’t think there is much “ambiguity” in Boerwar’s comment re: zero chance.”

    ———

    I know comprehension isn’t your strong point but I’ll spell it out for you. We know BW will vote 1 Labor and lives in the ACT. Labor will finish in the top 2 in all 3 seats there. So his statement is ambiguous because regardless of how he preferences, no other party can realistically receive his vote.

  12. mjsays:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 11:04 pm
    Seems odd and irrational that a fair number of diehard Labor supporters here seem to prefer to lend their preference to potentially electing a hard right Dutton LNP
    =========================================================

    Many Green or Green adjacent posters on here. Keep saying there is no difference between the LNP and the ALP. If they really believe that to be true. Why would they be surprised by Labor preferencing Liberal?

    The more Greens keep telling Labor and LNP voters that they are same. The more likely they might start to believe they have more in common with each other than with the Greens. While i don’t believe it to be true. It a dangerous lie that Greens often tell here. Dangerous to themselves too.

  13. Mavis at 8.17 pm

    Orban has withdrawn Hungary from the ICC but the decision legally takes a year to become effective under the Rome statute of the ICC.

    Meanwhile don’t expect Germany to punish Hungary, despite Orban doing Putin’s handiwork in the EU.

    The reason is that Merz has not called for Netanyahu to be detained while in Hungary, although that is legally what should happen in accordance with Hungary’s international legal obligations to humanity.

  17. Entropy says:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 11:08 pm

    It is probably not a true reflection of Labor supporters in general though. It probably more reflects how well some Greens posters have managed to annoy some Labor posters on here.

    ———

    Yeah I doubt it’s a general sentiment, but it needs to be pointed out that certain people in this forum are quite happy to rail against a Dutton govt but ultimately prefer it over a no name Green or at least like to give off that energy. It’s a flashing warning sign that this person is an ideologue and that their views should be taken in that context seeing as they clearly can’t look beyond their party label.

    I’ve never said Labor and Liberal are the same and will preference Labor over them. Labor maintaining the status quo suits me personally, but it’s not in the long term interests of the country and if unaddressed will lead to more people voting for an electable version of Dutton.

  19. mj says:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 11:04 pm

    You’re too young to recall “There’ll be no Carbon Tax under a government I lead”?

    FFS.

  22. mjsays:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 11:35 pm

    I’ve never said Labor and Liberal are the same and will preference Labor over them.
    ==================================================

    Never said you were one that did but some Green supporters like to repeat that line a lot. I think they believe it is some winning line. It is not and only serves to make Labor supporters less likely to preference Greens.

  24. Living in 3-cornered seats at both state and federal level my preferences absolutely matter, and I can say now that I have never and would never ever put the Liberals above either Labor or Greens.

    I also think the arguments that either “Labor and Liberals are the same” or “Greens and Liberals are as bad as each other” are both stupid.

    The Liberals should clearly always be the common enemy of both the ALP and Greens in my opinion.

  25. The latest USA monthly trade deficit just came through $120 billion.

    What a parasitic country: sucking $120 billion more of stuff from the rest of world than the rest of the world gets from them – in one month! That’s $352 for every American man, woman and child, in one month.

  26. pied pipersays:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 11:42 pm
    The latest USA monthly trade deficit just came through $120 billion.
    =======================================================

    Should probably foreclose the place. It is obviously trading while insolvent. Administrators need to be appointed.

  27. The Odd One says:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 11:48 pm

    First time I’ve ever seen a trade deficit described in those terms. You might pick up a Nobel Prize.

    Lots of other countries are very happy to receive USD in exchange for whatever they sell to the US.

  29. FUBAR says:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 11:41 pm
    mj says:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 11:04 pm

    You’re too young to recall “There’ll be no Carbon Tax under a government I lead”?

    FFS.

    ———

    Enjoy your loss in Curtin.

  31. frednk says Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 10:46 pm

    US beef was banned because they had mad cow.

    Well that might explain the state of their politics.

  32. Entropy says Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 10:49 pm

    The only liar here is you. I said they are trying not to be killed by the IDF, whether this is because they are being directly targeted or are just collateral damage. Either way, it is something they are trying to avoid, so they can’t safely go around checking on other things that some poster implied they should .

    I would imagine almost anyone operating in or near a war zone would be taking efforts to avoid being killed. Even Zomi Frankcom and the World Central Kitchen team were taking steps to avoid being killed by the IDF. To quote Tony Abbott, shit happens. It’s only prudent to try to minimise the chance of that shit happening to you when you’re in such places.

  33. The beef ban isn’t about detection of cases anyway, but about unsafe practices:

    Australia has had a ban on uncooked American beef for more than 20 years.
    The ban was introduced because the Australian government concluded America had not taken satisfactory steps to address the risk of mad cow disease.
    …
    In the United States, parts of a cow that are not eaten by humans are often ground into a powder and often used as cattle feed.
    This means American cows are sometimes eating the parts of other cattle that could carry mad cow disease.
    That then puts those cows at risk of developing the disease, which could then be passed on to humans that eat them.

    https://www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-liberation-day-tariffs-update-australian-beef-exports-singled-out/ede43fa9-35ca-488b-b465-f93c25a1f879

    I was a bit confused by the ‘uncooked’ above when I first heard it, as I was pretty sure that the prion responsible for BSE is not affected by normal cooking processes, but I’m assuming there was some sort of rationale when Howard implemented the ban. I’m guessing that the ban came from the Nats who were worried about livestock feed or whatever potentially contaminating their herds, whereas the ‘cooked beef’ is probably only products for human consumption, and hence could only really be a (very low) risk to humans and not Aussie cows …

  34. The Beef reason was really just an excuse for why Trump put Tariffs on Australia. We were almost alone in having a huge trade deficit with America – Brazil has one too but it is not as large. So it would be almost unjustifiable to put tariffs on somewhere you selling twice as much as you are buying for them. Hence, he is using the beef issue as an excuse.

  36. Been There says:
    Friday, April 4, 2025 at 12:20 am

    It was a tax.

    Putting a price on carbon dioxide is imposing a tax. The money ends up in the Treasury. It’s a tax.

    The article is also wrong about the term illegal immigrants and seeking asylum. The UN Convention on Refugees is quite clear – entry without a valid visa is recognised as an illegal entry but the illegality is requested to be overlooked while an application for asylum is considered. If they are found to be legitimate refugees then their illegal entry is overlooked. If they aren’t entitled to asylum then they are illegal entrants.

  37. Bystander says:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 11:21 pm

    Nath
    Good to see you back posting under your original moniker. When were you given your reprieve?
    ——————————

    He sought and was granted a pardon by President Donald Trump.

  38. Entropy says:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025

    Never said you were one that did but some Green supporters like to repeat that line a lot. I think they believe it is some winning line. It is not and only serves to make Labor supporters less likely to preference Greens

    ———

    Thanks but Labor and the left generally are not going to win future elections on friendly vibes. We need to address inequities sooner rather than later or be left with trumptards exploiting legitimate concerns without any end.

  39. Those who voted and backed The Orange Looney are having their chickens come home to roost. They should be ashamed of themselves backing a lying felon who is only bothered about himself. The MSM in this country need to have a long hard look at their right wing attitudes. No sympathy from me.

  40. “Rates response by RBA: cut, cut and more cuts (The Oz)
    The Reserve Bank is almost certain to cut interest rates next month and follow up with as many as three further reductions this year, traders say.”

  41. @William Bowe, is the donation function not possible on a mobile phone view of the site? Or maybe I’m just too tired and missing something really obvious.

    I’ve been meaning for ages to contribute again in recognition of your prodigious efforts on analytic tools and prolific Fed election posting. But it was your chef kiss level delivery of basic reading comprehension regarding Bob Brown’s comments that sealed the deal. You certainly don’t suffer fools gladly. Very therapeutic for those of us who mostly just lurk and need to scroll through that dross.

  45. Anytime WB. Always up for some fresh polling data – as you have worked out.

    Going by the report by Paul Smith, the WFH fiasco and the plan to reduce the public service is not going down well. I’d say the WFH issue, in particular, will have a big impact in seats such as Corangamite and possibly the Central Coast area in outer Northern Sydney.

    I think Mr Dutton has to accept the world changed a bit during covid, and WFH is probably here to stay.

    Just watching the U.S. stock market by the way. Down almost 1500 points.

  46. William Bowe says Friday, April 4, 2025 at 1:28 am

    Thanks nadia88. Dutton down nine on approval and up eleven on disapproval. Ouch.

    That’s a little beyond MOE.

  47. The Greens during this term of Parliament has been nothing short of reprehensible.

    At the 2022 election, Labor promised to establish a $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund but the The Greens teamed up with Dutton and refused to pass the legislation that was given the affirmative by the electorate in 2022.

    Bandt and Chandler-Mather then went around saying the ALP had done nothing on housing with Chandler-Mather bragging in the Jacobin magazine that it was a deliberate ploy by not, “Allowing the HAFF to pass would demobilise the growing section of civil society that is justifiably angry.”. In other words, politicise the urgent need for housing and wind up those who are desperate for a home and blame it on the ALP.

    They politicised the Voice and gave Dutton and the right wing all the ammunition they could wish for just to appease a small faction in their own party to the detriment of Indigenous people.

    They attacked the ALP who have had, as part of their platform, a two state solution for 50 years and who were one of the first to stand up in the UN and condemn Netanyahu over his savage retribution, but said absolutely nothing about Dutton visiting the far right leader of Israel to give him his support.

    All of these manoeuvres were an attempt to try and get a few votes off the ALP but all they have succeeded in doing, is to assist Dutton in his relentless campaign to sweep under the carpet the disgraceful state Australia was in when the ALP took office and put the blame on the Albanese Government and some wonder why “Labor types” are livid with the Greens?

    Dutton has had a free ride thanks to the Greens lack of indignation and fury at his far-right, dogwhistling, Trumpian garbage and assisted him with their deathly silence. Who would have ever thought that the Greens would stay silent when Dutton announced his Nuclear plan?

  48. LOTO seems to hide from social/ the media when the crap’s flying, like a plod showing up late on a 000 call, having seen the PM+ absent except for photo-ops; in terms of preferences for major parties I’ll put Liberals/ Nationals below Labor

  50. N88 change my prediction labour minority possibly majority Peter’s problem is the more they heard about him the more they don’t like him hell Anthony Albanese ditto interview with Aussie men reviews and it’s actually a pretty interesting discussion and as the one post above me says I’m constantly seeing Anthony Albanese like holy crap do they even Game Plan at the coalition did no one said hey people actually like working from home

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