Week one miscellany: Macnamara, hung parliament scenarios and more (open thread)

Number-crunching for the complex contest for the inner Melbourne seat of Macnamara, among other things.

Looming polls that I’m aware of include a YouGov poll that should be out early tomorrow and the latest instalment of the RedBridge Group marginal seat tracking poll to follow the next day. Before proceeding with a post covering miscellaneous bits and pieces from the federal campaign, some further recent posts for your consideration: one on the resolution of the Western Australian election count; one on state polling in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland; and a guest post from Adrian Beaumont on developments in Canada and the United States, including yesterday’s high-profile Wisconsin Supreme Court election.

• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports “senior Labor figures” in Macnamara (one of whom would seem to be former state minister and vocal Israel supporter Philip Dalidakis) are advocating “open ticket” how-to-vote cards offering no recommendation beyond the first preference, rather than favouring the Greens over the Liberals. At issue is the Greens’ stance on Israel in a seat whose 10% Jewish population ranks second in the country behind Wentworth, where Labor’s handling of the Greens is of little consequence. Ballot paper and preference flow data suggests that around 30% of Labor voters follow the how-to-vote card, and three-quarters of those who don’t put the Greens ahead of the Liberals of their own volition. With Labor accounting for roughly 30% of the vote in the seat, an open ticket would provide about 2% of a required Liberal swing of upwards of 10% if they are to defeat the Greens. That would only apply if Labor incumbent Josh Burns ran third in a seat where there was little to separate Labor, Liberal and the Greens on the primary vote in 2022. If Burns did make the final count, it would take a swing of around 12% to dislodge him he faced the Liberals, and around 6% if he faced the Greens.

• Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie became the first cross-bencher to offer any indication as to which party she would likely support in the event of a hung parliament, saying her constituents would favour the Coalition. She based this on the complexion of the state seats corresponding with Mayo, notwithstanding that Labor won the two-party preferred count in Mayo ahead of the Liberals by 51.6% to 48.4% in 2022. Sharkie qualified this by saying she would “absolutely talk to both sides but it would ultimately depend where the numbers sit and who can form stable government”.

• Perhaps by way of pushing back against last week’s JWS Research poll in the News Corp papers showing Liberal candidate Tim Wilson with a 54-46 lead over teal incumbent Zoe Daniel in Goldstein, Climate 200 has provided The Australian with a uComms poll showing exactly the reverse. The only information provided on the primary vote in the report is that Wilson had more of it than Daniel, as indeed he did when Daniel defeated him in 2022. The poll was conducted March 18 to 25, and follows a similar poll from late February that had Daniel leading 52-48.

• Nine Newspapers has a useful feature highlighting the movements of the two party leaders, and Crikey has something similar tracking electorates that have been targeted with locally specific election promises (pork barrelling, if you will).

Some late-starting candidates of note:

• The Liberal candidate for Chris Bowen’s seat of McMahon will be Carmen Lazar, who until last September was a Labor member of Fairfield City Council. Lazar criticised the party’s failure to support a local push for an MRI machine at Fairfield Hospital at the time she stood aside from council. Paul Karp of the Financial Review further reports she was aggrieved that David Saliba won Labor preselection ahead of her for the state seat of Fairfield.

• Labor’s candidate in Forrest is Tabitha Dowding, policy adviser to state Agriculture Minister Jackie Jarvis and granddaughter of former Labor Premier Peter Dowding.

• Andrew Thaler, who has gained some notoriety as a Snowy Monaro Regional councillor, is running as an independent in Eden-Monaro.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

664 comments on “Week one miscellany: Macnamara, hung parliament scenarios and more (open thread)”

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  1. Andrew Thaler is one of those comparatively low-profile individuals (at least in national news) whom the SMH has decided to go after with all guns blazing.

    Like Maurice Terzini of Bondi Icebergs.

    For all I know, they might both be dreadful specimens of humanity. But media witch hunts bother me a little.

  3. Also, I should have said how much I am enjoying your daily posts, William. They’re full of interesting info and analysis.

  6. • Perhaps by way of pushing back against last week’s JWS Research poll in the News Corp papers showing Liberal candidate Tim Wilson leading teal incumbent Zoe Daniel in Goldstein, Climate 200 has provided The Australian with a uComms poll showing exactly the reverse. The only information provided on the primary vote in the report is that Wilson had more of it than Daniel, as indeed he did when Daniel defeated him in 2022. The poll was conducted March 18 to 25, and follows a similar poll from late February that had Daniel leading 52-48.

    Go boss!

  7. World News & Politics Patrol:
    Denmark, Netherlands React to Trump’s DEI Ultimatum: https://www.newsweek.com/denmark-netherlands-react-trump-dei-ultimatum-2054062

    Macron weighs in on Le Pen verdict for first time: ‘The law is the same for everyone’: https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-says-the-laws-the-same-for-everyone-after-le-pen-guilty-verdict/

    UK newly requires everyone working for Russia to register their activities: https://kyivindependent.com/uk-obliges-everyone-working-for-russia-to-register-their-activities/

    More Russian assets frozen in Switzerland: https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/foreign-affairs/more-russian-assets-frozen-in-switzerland/89095766

    China’s military launches live-fire exercise in escalation of blockade drills near Taiwan: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/01/china/china-taiwan-drills-live-fire-escalation-intl-hnk?cid=ios_app

    UK rejects EU plan to tie defense pact to fishing quotas: https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-rejects-eu-plan-tie-defense-security-pact-to-fishing-quotas/

    Waltz’s team set up at least 20 Signal group chats for crises across the world: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/02/waltzs-team-set-up-at-least-20-signal-group-chats-for-crises-across-the-world-00266845

    Leaked Emails Expose Trump’s Devastating Revenge Plot on Dem. Governor: https://newrepublic.com/post/193483/donald-trump-maine-governor-social-security-leaked-emails

    Elon Musk group removes video from $1M winner after she says she got money to ‘vote’: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2025/04/01/elon-musk-group-removes-video-of-1m-winner-under-bribery-concerns/82766242007/

    Cory Booker’s 25-Hour Speech Was a Stunt. It Worked: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-02/cory-booker-s-25-hour-speech-was-a-stunt-it-worked

    Trump Set To Announce Biggest Tax Increase On Americans In Decades: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-tariff-tax-increase_n_67ec690fe4b07de4a7b95428

    Mike Johnson Cancels Votes After Suffering Republican Rebellion: https://www.newsweek.com/mike-johnson-cancels-votes-after-suffering-republican-rebellion-2053981

    Trump Rages at ‘Unbelievably Disloyal’ GOP Senators in Late-Night Rant: ‘What Is Wrong With Them?’: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-rages-at-unbelievably-disloyal-gop-senators-in-late-night-rant-what-is-wrong-with-them/

    Senate Republicans release budget blueprint with new tax cuts and a $5 trillion debt limit hike: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-republicans-release-budget-blueprint-new-tax-cuts-rcna199359

    Elon Musk to step back from government role ‘in coming months’: https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-to-step-back-from-government-role-in-coming-months-13340539

    DOGE official at DOJ bragged about hacking, distributing pirated software: https://www.reuters.com/technology/cybersecurity/doge-official-doj-bragged-about-hacking-distributing-pirated-software-2025-04-02/

    NYC Mayor Eric Adams’ corruption case dismissed with prejudice, judge rules: https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/nyc-mayor-eric-adams-corruption-case-dropped/

  9. As an example of the tripe subscribers to the Daily Rupert get..

    WATCH: Will Dutton ‘duke it out’ with Trump?
    Not since Tony Abbott vowed to “shirt-front” Vladimir Putin a decade ago have world leaders been put on notice by the pugilistic skills of a Liberal leader, writes Joe Hildebrand. SEE THE VIDEO

  10. meter baba at 6.16 am

    Thaler has a grossly inflated ego among other less obvious flaws.

    He will get about 5% on a good day. Preferences of his voters will scatter.

    His vote may come largely from Cooma where the Lib candidate is from.

  11. meher baba says:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 6:16 am

    Wouldn’t give second rate main stream media a second thought.. driven 1000% by clicks.. nothing else

  13. Weak kneed Christian takes marbles & goes off in a huff..

    Mike Johnson Cancels Votes After Suffering Republican Rebellion

  17. US President Donald Trump is announcing “reciprocal tariffs” on countries throughout the world – including a 25 per cent tariff on all foreign-made vehicles.
    Saying the United States had been “looted, pillaged raped by countries near and far”, Mr Trump said “April 2, 2025, will forever be the day remembered as the day American industry was reborn”. He started his speech with more of the strong anti-foreigner rhetoric loved by his political base.
    He said “jobs and factories will come roaring back into this country”, claiming it would lead to a “golden age of America”.

  21. Egg prices have not halved in price. What is he talking about?!

    __________
    I think the clown quoted a 59% decrease! He’s mad.

  24. Remember Chump is speaking after New York Stock Exchange is closed.. shit fits fan any minute now on futures market..

    ASX tanks before it opens today

  26. Donald Trump has raised Australia’s ban on fresh beef imports as the reason he will implement a reciprocal measure. “Australia bans —and they’re wonderful people, and wonderful everything — but they ban American beef. Yet we imported $US3 billion of Australian beef from them just last year alone.
    “They won’t take any of our beef. “They don’t want it because they don’t want it to affect their farmers and you know, I don’t blame them but we’re doing the same thing right now starting at midnight tonight, I would say.”

  28. Seems complete reciprocity for tariffs, taxes, currency manipulation, graft…

    But 50% tariff on what has been calculated

    Eg China is calculated at 67% – so 32%

    20% on EU

    46%in Vietnam

    32% on Taiwan

    And what do we get in the Bingo call?

  29. T minus zero countdown to the Trump Tariff day.

    One can only imagine all the frenzied back channel cries for mercy from the likes of Morrison et al towards the Trump ecosystem. No doubt all as desperate as Abbott’s uniquely innovative begging at Tony Windsor circa 2010 and no doubt all falling of deaf ears.

    I look forward to the inevitable and compelling back and forth between entropy and Larsie on this one with generous lashings of live cross overs from boer and Rexie from the Manuka shops. Popcorn at the ready in between clients for this leftieBrawler!.

    As the day evolves I also expect to see some micro analysis of submarine tech from Andy and some fury from Nathie as he adds 15ml half shots into his lemon lime and bitters and fire engines.

    But on a serious note, you’d think it couldn’t possibly get any worse for Dutton and the LNP after yesterday’s legendary exchange with sky news lackey but it no doubt will. And yes as others have said it’s great to see William cranking up the open threads with more content as the campaign rolls on. Please consider:

    Sky lackey: “why not wave through the tax cuts if you are the party of lower taxes?

    Dutton: “well why vote for us if we’re just going to be a carbon copy of the Labor party?”

    Sky lackey: “so that goes to the core issue of why would you automatically match Labor’s Medicare bulk billing promises but not their tax cuts- you know as the party of lower taxes??”

  30. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 7:26 am

    Laws of supply( price) & demand .. US tariff goes up, local prices fall.. local consumption increases.. not too much of a problem..

  35. The U.S. dollar has continued its slide from earlier the day as Trump speaks in the Rose Garden. An index that measures the dollar against a basket of America’s trading partners’ currencies, has fallen 0.6 percent for the day, on course for its worst day in about a month.

  36. Australia 10% tariff.
    China: 34%
    European Union: 20%
    India 26%
    Switzerland 31%
    Cambodia 49%
    South Africa 30%
    Brazil 10%

  40. Trump is now rambling on and on with repetitive superlatives and boasts. He’s a disgrace!
    How could anybody respect this blowhard?

  42. I’m reading the NYT live blog.. they are as myopic as Chump… I place my faith in the EU administration.. total professionals vs a clown car show… this is the beginning of end of American dominance ..

    The EU & China will combine out of self interest . in exactly the way the Ukraine approaches its survival..
    Koolaid is an American product

  44. Danielle Kaye
    April 2, 2025, 4:44 p.m. ET3 minutes ago
    Danielle KayeBusiness reporter

    Futures on the S&P 500, which allow investors to trade when exchanges are not officially open, began to tumble after Trump started outlining the tariff rates. The index had ended the day higher, but futures are now down more than 1 percent.

  45. Thankyou failed Australian federal labor government for the tariffs you caused by the USA by calling Trump a traitor and Wong And Albanese mass slagging Trump off.
    Labor supports communist China it hates USA and says nothing about Chinese hacking,stealing,intimidation,corruption,human rights or democratic reform.

    Federal Labor is responsible for USA retribution.

  46. pied piper says:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 7:48 am

    I hope your US shares don’t tank more than 50% , if they do contact Dutton for a handout

  47. Dr Doolittle: “Thaler has a grossly inflated ego among other less obvious flaws.
    He will get about 5% on a good day. Preferences of his voters will scatter.
    His vote may come largely from Cooma where the Lib candidate is from.”

    I am sure he is a deeply-flawed individual. What I’m talking about is the SMH’s (and, to a certain extent, the ABC) propensity to give those flaws large scale coverage, including commentary from parliamentarians from both sides of politics. The guy is a councillor on shire council which is of little or no importance to anyone who does not live within its boundaries. I live in Tasmania and I know the names of precisely two councillors/alderpersons from NSW: Clover Moore and Andrew Thaler.

    Here in Tassie, where we have far more local councils than we need, there are fights between councillors quite frequently , with accusations of dodgy dealings, bullying and harrassment flying around the place. They get a bit of media coverage, but nothing like what Thaler has received in recent years. It’s a bit like the Killara school zone issue, which received top-billing by the SMH for a number of days.

    In my experience in various roles requiring me to deal with the media, these sorts of continuing crusades against individuals or government decisions are quite often launched by one journalist who, for some reason or other, has decided to focus on this particular person or issue.

  50. Pied piper you e jumped the shark with that comment- from ‘young and thin and tall and lovely’ to ‘old and bald and scheduled and no longer composed mentis’ in one paragraph.

    Trump sound bites about beef. Of god no!!! Decades of bilateral policy on no beef exports from nations that have had been previously diseased at some point suddenly Albo’s fault !!

    I know see a 20 seat majority for Dutts and Sue Doublebarrelson Wrongson a shoe in for snatching the Hunter for the flute party!!

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