Budget polling avalanche: phase three (open thread)

A new federal poll of voting intention in New South Wales, yet more budget polling, and a more detailed look at what’s come through over the past few days.

Before we proceed with squeezing some last juice out of the post-budget polling, note that there are two other fresh posts below this one: one a guess post from Adrian Beaumont on Canada and the United States, the other a summary of recent state polling from New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria.

Part of the latter is a new DemosAU poll from New South Wales encompassing federal as well as state voting intention. The federal voting intention numbers have the Coalition leading 51-49, compared with 51.4-48.6 to Labor at the 2022 election, from primary votes of Labor 30% (33.4% in 2022), Coalition 38% (36.5%), Greens 12% (10.0%) and One Nation 9% (4.9%). The poll also finds Anthony Albanese leading Peter Dutton 39-38 on preferred prime minister, and 31% holding that Australia is headed in the right direction compared with 52% for the contrary view. The poll was conducted last Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1013.

The full results from the Essential Research poll included results on the budget, including a finding that less attention was paid to it than the last two, with 36% saying they paid a lot of attention (down four on last year and nine on the year before) and 15% that they had paid no attention (up four on last year and three on the year before). Forty-one per cent felt the budget would be good for the well off (down five on last year and unchanged on the year before) and 27% felt it would be good for those on lower incomes (down three last year and fourteen on an unusual result the year before). A question on the Trump administration’s tariffs finds 37% holding that Australia should look for new trade relationships, 29% that retaliatory tariffs should be imposed, and 35% that the priority should be to remain on good terms with the US and seek exemptions.

Now for a closer look at Newspoll’s budget responses, which maintain a consistent set of such questions that the pollster in its various incarnations has been posing after each budget since 1988, encompassing 39 budgets overall. The minus 10 rating for last week’s budget in terms of its impact on the economy was the fourth worst result yet recorded, surpassed only by three successive Hawke-Keating government budgets in 1991, 1992 and 1993 (the latter was in a league of its own at minus 42, the budget in question being remembered for its breach of Paul Keating’s “L-A-W” tax cuts promise). The minus 19 rating on impact on personal situation, by contrast, rates around the middle of the field.

The chart below records how each budget scored on the two measures. While respondents invariably score budgets more favourably on economic than personal impact (last year’s two-point differential was the closest any had yet come to breaking the mould), the trendline points to a tendency for budgets to be generally perceived either as good or bad, reflected in relatively strong or weak results for both measures. Last week’s budget is the one marked in red – its placement below the trendline indicates that, as mediocre budgets go, respondents felt this one relatively better for themselves than for the economy.

Lest anyone overestimate the electoral significance of this result, the best result of plus 48 was at the budget preceding the defeat of the Howard government in 2007. Perhaps more to the point, the minus 11 rating on the question of whether the Coalition would have done better is part of the course for a Labor budget (overall average minus 10.4%) – consistent with the fact that the Coalition generally does better on economic management polling, their budgets tend to do better on this question than Labor’s (average of minus 17.3%, the overall overage being minus 14.2%). Another reason to doubt the budget’s electoral impact is the one just noted by Essential Research – that voters were unusually disinterested on this occasion, which does not factor in to Newspoll’s calculations.

Finally, some more on YouGov’s MRP poll, which didn’t get the attention it warranted amid the Sunday polling avalanche. Even more so than the first wave in late January and early February, the second wave from March was distinctive in suggesting that Labor is actually holding up well in Victoria – so much so that the lineball Liberal-held seat of Deakin is rated “toss-up Labor”, while the two seats rated more likely than not to be Liberal gains in the first wave, Chisholm and Deakin and now rated “lean Labor”. Even with five seats in the state now back in the their column, New South Wales continues to be rated the most troublesome state for Labor, being home to all four of the seats likely to be lost.

Since the post-stratification approach leans heavily on demographic variables in estimating seat-level results, I have made an effort to identify the underlying changes in the survey that have yielded the movement from the first wave to the second, which ranges from five points towards Labor (in Bean and Canning) to three points towards the Liberals (in Watson). This has been done through a linear regression analysis that uses the change in Coalition two-party preferred from one wave to the next as the dependent variable, with predictor variables of state/territory, AEC seat classification (inner metropolitan, outer metropolitan, provincial or rural) and four census demographic variables yielded through trial and error.

The demographic variables found to be highly significant (as indicated by the three asterisks) are Index of Relative Socioeconomic Advantage and Disadvantage, which is an Australian Bureau of Statistics measure of general affluence that avoids the pitfalls of income-based measures; the percentage of the population aged 55 and over; the percentage of the 18-plus population with trade certificates; and the percentage who primarily speak a Chinese language at home. The negative coefficients indicate that electorates scoring high on these measures tended to move most strongly to Labor from the first wave to the second. Conversely, the state/territory and AEC region classification variables prove not to be too illuminating. Keep in mind that what’s being measured here is change between wave one and wave two, not swing since 2022 – a potential subject for a future post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

561 thoughts on “Budget polling avalanche: phase three (open thread)”

Comments Page 9 of 12
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  1. The octogenarian former PM is being rolled out in WA – good luck!

    When Howard visits Perth later this month, he is expected to be deployed by the Liberals in Curtin, as well as the marginal Labor electorate of Tangney. Another former Liberal prime minister, Tony Abbott, will likely be used in outer-metropolitan seats.

    Howard expects his party can win back Curtin, the new seat of Bullwinkel in the Perth hills, and at least one of the four seats Labor won from the Liberals in the 2022 election – most likely Tangney.

    He said Peter Dutton had been performing well, despite the opposition leader attracting criticism this week for a lacklustre start to the campaign.

    “I think he’s got off to a very good start. The initiative he had in relation to being a little easier for people to borrow money for housing, I think those restrictions at the moment are too tight, I think that’s practical, immediate help,” he said.

    As for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese: “Obviously, I disagree with him, but I just think he’s out of his depth, I think he struggles with issues.

    “I never thought

    Bob

    Hawke was out of his depth, I disagreed with him. I never thought

    Paul

    Keating was out of his depth, I disagreed with him even more.”

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/why-john-howard-thinks-teals-are-done-in-wa-20250324-p5lm49

  2. Shame about the 10-15% reduction in living standards on Albo’s watch- its kind of the big turd in the strong economy picture IMO.

  4. The Liberals are going to be bereft when Howard goes. The Little Master puts things in ways no one of the current crop can. They are mistruths, but almost believable ones.

  6. Jimmy

    Both Labor and Lib have been terrible on investment in science, technology and medicine.
    We are now miles behind other OECD countries on research spending. We are 1.7% of GDP and OECD average is 2.7%.

    We are not the clever country any more.

  7. Lars – ”You revised your timeline down – you were touting 2070 at one stage.”

    Nuclear for Australia is perfectly doable. It isn’t by 2035 or 2037, but 2045 might be achievable. All seven by some time after that – 2050s perhaps.

    We can do it but why would we bother? There are far cheaper and quicker renewable options avialable.

    I don’t recall mentioning 2070 – maybe that’s when we get an AUKUS sub?

  8. Tricot

    One of the Liberal cheer squad gave of his belief that only good governments come from being run like a business.

    The Coalition don’t even believe in their own bullshit. their rhetoric that government should be run like a business only applies to cutting funding for things that benefit ordinary people, like health and education. The Coalition are perfectly willing to shovel billions in taxpayer money into their CEO and billionaire mates’ pockets, with no oversight or expectation of a return. You only have to look at DOGE Dutton’s nuclear boondoggle – little more than a $800 billion taxpayer dollar handout for fossil fuel billionaires.

  9. Shame about the 10-15% reduction in living standards…caused by the previous Coalition government which the Albanese government had to rectify.

  10. JimmyD,
    Exactly. Dutton is fixing to line Australia’s Billionaires’ pockets big time. He just hasn’t got the guts to say it outright. So, because he’s a politician he comes up with a ‘policy’ and a form of words to disguise the fact.

  12. If Government should be run like a business then you wouldn’t have your deputy CEO being allowed to remain at the company after getting paralytic drunk at work then being recorded lying half-passed out on the footpath.


  13. William Bowe says:
    Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 8:51 pm

    I don’t set terribly high standards here, God knows, but I do require that supposedly factual statements at least arguably be true.

    We do need some sort of hint as to what you refer.

  15. God knows what it might be……maybe this gem…

    Lars Von Trier says:
    Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 8:44 pm
    Shame about the 10-15% reduction in living standards on Albo’s watch- its kind of the big turd in the strong economy picture IMO.

  18. Thank … &ltinsert whichever deity you believe in here&gt …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-02/prosecutors-to-appeal-kristian-white-sentence-woman-tasered/105130028

    Prosecutors intend to appeal against the sentence handed to former NSW police officer Kristian White, who avoided jail over the manslaughter of Clare Nowland.

    The 95-year-old woman was shot with a taser and died in May 2023, with White receiving a two-year Community Correction Order.

  19. Prosecutors intend to appeal against the sentence handed to former NSW police officer Kristian White, who avoided jail over the manslaughter of Clare Nowland.
    ________________
    good.

  20. Bob Brown has urged the Tasmanian Greens to preference the Libs above Labor.

    To quote…

    “Former Greens leader Bob Brown has urged the minor party not to preference Labor ahead of the Liberal party in Tasmanian seats at the upcoming election if the Albanese government legislates to effectively exempt salmon farming from national environment laws.”

    Article: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/22/bob-brown-greens-labor-environment-law-election-anthony-albanese

  21. steve davissays:
    Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 9:13 pm
    LVT
    Have you made anything else up?
    ===================================================

    To be fair to Lars, he is consistently untruthful.

  22. paul A @ #420 Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025 – 9:20 pm

    Bob Brown has urged the Tasmanian Greens to preference the Libs above Labor.

    To quote…

    ” Former Greens leader Bob Brown has urged the minor party not to preference Labor ahead of the Liberal party in Tasmanian seats at the upcoming election if the Albanese government legislates to effectively exempt salmon farming from national environment laws.”

    Article: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/22/bob-brown-greens-labor-environment-law-election-anthony-albanese

    Which part of “not to preference Labor ahead of the Liberal party” did you not understand?

  25. ”
    Boerwarsays:
    Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 8:22 pm
    I wonder whether peg is really a Liberal agent provocateur?
    She repeats attacks on Albanese all the time.
    ”

    I think, Anyone who says they want a minority government federal government after May 3rd, 2025, actually want a Dutton government. Simple as that.

  26. Ven @ #425 Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025 – 9:23 pm

    ”
    Boerwarsays:
    Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 8:22 pm
    I wonder whether peg is really a Liberal agent provocateur?
    She repeats attacks on Albanese all the time.
    ”

    Anyone who says they want a minority government federal government after May 3rd, 2025, actually want a Dutton government. Simple as that.

    Ummm. Which part of “minority Labor government” did you not understand?

  27. Lars is and always is right.

    WB is always right.

    So is Brown suggesting they preference the Libs above Labor, or is he suggesting they preference Labor above the Libs.

    To me it is suggesting that Brown wants the Greens to “not preference Labor above the Libs”.
    This means he wants the Libs higher on the ballot paper than Labor when Greens voters go to the ballot box.

  29. ” Former Greens leader Bob Brown has urged the minor party not to preference Labor ahead of the Liberal party in Tasmanian seats at the upcoming election if the Albanese government legislates to effectively exempt salmon farming from national environment laws.”

    If you don’t preference labor over liberal. Aren’t you in fact preferencing Liberal over Labor?

  31. Entropy says:
    Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 9:28 pm
    ” Former Greens leader Bob Brown has urged the minor party not to preference Labor ahead of the Liberal party in Tasmanian seats at the upcoming election if the Albanese government legislates to effectively exempt salmon farming from national environment laws.”

    If you don’t preference labor over liberal. Aren’t you in fact preferencing Liberal over Labor?

    _________

    The Greens. Not the voter. They can leave the preference card open.

  33. paul A @ #427 Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025 – 9:27 pm

    Lars is and always is right.

    WB is always right.

    So is Brown suggesting they preference the Libs above Labor, or is he suggesting they preference Labor above the Libs.

    To me it is suggesting the Brown wants the Greens to “not preference Labor above the Libs”.
    This means he wants the Libs higher on the ballot paper than Labor when Greens voters go to the ballot booth.

    Or … and I’m just winging it here .. he could perhaps have urged to the Greens “not to preference Labor ahead of the Liberal party” … crazy, I know.

  34. I am in Kooyong and got a text from Amelia Hamer at 7:20 pm tonight saying she would give ME a call at 7:30.

    ‘It’s your chance to quiz me and the Shadow Treasurer about our plan to Get Australia Back on Track’ said the uninvited text.

    Right-o, i thought, I’ll just rehearse my lines about excessive immigration, 8 quarters of per capita recession and what a dopey idea it is to have a referendum on dual citizens…this should be fun

    9:30 arrives and still no call.

  37. To me it sounds more like he’s saying the party should run open tickets in Tasmanian seats, not that Greens voters should preference the Liberals.

  41. Catholic schools have called for the “ideological” national curriculum to be abolished, as new research reveals more boys are slipping behind girls in their academic performance.
    NSW Catholic Schools chief executive Dallas McInerney said every Australian school should be able to use the newly released NSW syllabus instead. “Curriculum and education should be about enlightenment, not indoctrination,” he told The Australian. “The national curriculum is very vague and not teacher-friendly, and is not written for practical application. “Everything looks like it is drafted by the sociology department of a university. “Australian schools would be better off if the NSW curriculum was rolled out right across the country.”
    New research released by NSW Catholic Schools on Wednesday shows that boys are twice as likely as girls to struggle with reading and writing: https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/04/02/budget-polling-avalanche-phase-three-open-thread/comment-page-9/#comment-4488409

  42. To me it sounds more like he’s saying the party should run open tickets in Tasmanian seats, not that Greens voters should preference the Liberals.

    Very obviously, that is what he means. Inference isn’t necessary though — even on its face, what Brown said is plainly different in meaning from what is being asserted. If certain people here want to embarrass themselves by claiming otherwise, I cant (or rather, won’t) stop them.

  43. William Bowe @ #442 Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025 – 9:36 pm

    To me it sounds more like he’s saying the party should run open tickets in Tasmanian seats, not that Greens voters should preference the Liberals.

    Very obviously, that is what he means. Inference isn’t necessary though — even on its face, what Brown said is plainly different in meaning from what is being asserted. If certain people here want to embarrass themselves by claiming otherwise, I cant (or rather, won’t) stop them.

    Now you’re just being cruel, William.

  44. Pegasus @ #435 Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025 – 9:32 pm

    Has anyone got access to a paywalled article in The Age?

    Labor moves to punish Greens over Gaza stance – and it could play into Liberal hands

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-moves-to-punish-greens-over-gaza-stance-and-it-could-play-into-liberal-hands-20250402-p5loli.html

    Basically Labor is considering denying preferences to the Greens in Macnamara. Not explicitly preferencing the Liberals above them, just not endorsing a preference on the HTV cards.

  46. davesays:
    Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 9:22 pm
    Lars is and always was right.

    Are you going to be the marketing manager for the baseball caps with that on it? The ‘r’ should be capitalised though. 😉

  50. @Pegasus yeah I was able to access that Age article.

    Sounds like certain Labor figures are trying to pressure the national executive into running an open ticket in Macnamara to prevent the Greens from winning and “send a message” to the 12% Jewish community that they stand with Israel and against the Greens.

    Running an open HTVC that could increase the chance of a Liberal gain in such a tight election is an idiotic idea.

    The Greens may be pro-Palestine but have zero influence on what happens in Gaza anyway.

    Whereas the Liberals have a whole suite of destructive policies that would make a real life difference to voters.

    Doing anything that increases the chance of a Liberal gain is a bad decision. I hope they decide against it.

    For the record I also don’t think the Greens should run open HTVCs in Tasmania.

    Both parties should be disciplined in putting the Liberals below each other.

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