Before we proceed with squeezing some last juice out of the post-budget polling, note that there are two other fresh posts below this one: one a guess post from Adrian Beaumont on Canada and the United States, the other a summary of recent state polling from New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria.
Part of the latter is a new DemosAU poll from New South Wales encompassing federal as well as state voting intention. The federal voting intention numbers have the Coalition leading 51-49, compared with 51.4-48.6 to Labor at the 2022 election, from primary votes of Labor 30% (33.4% in 2022), Coalition 38% (36.5%), Greens 12% (10.0%) and One Nation 9% (4.9%). The poll also finds Anthony Albanese leading Peter Dutton 39-38 on preferred prime minister, and 31% holding that Australia is headed in the right direction compared with 52% for the contrary view. The poll was conducted last Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1013.
The full results from the Essential Research poll included results on the budget, including a finding that less attention was paid to it than the last two, with 36% saying they paid a lot of attention (down four on last year and nine on the year before) and 15% that they had paid no attention (up four on last year and three on the year before). Forty-one per cent felt the budget would be good for the well off (down five on last year and unchanged on the year before) and 27% felt it would be good for those on lower incomes (down three last year and fourteen on an unusual result the year before). A question on the Trump administration’s tariffs finds 37% holding that Australia should look for new trade relationships, 29% that retaliatory tariffs should be imposed, and 35% that the priority should be to remain on good terms with the US and seek exemptions.
Now for a closer look at Newspoll’s budget responses, which maintain a consistent set of such questions that the pollster in its various incarnations has been posing after each budget since 1988, encompassing 39 budgets overall. The minus 10 rating for last week’s budget in terms of its impact on the economy was the fourth worst result yet recorded, surpassed only by three successive Hawke-Keating government budgets in 1991, 1992 and 1993 (the latter was in a league of its own at minus 42, the budget in question being remembered for its breach of Paul Keating’s “L-A-W” tax cuts promise). The minus 19 rating on impact on personal situation, by contrast, rates around the middle of the field.
The chart below records how each budget scored on the two measures. While respondents invariably score budgets more favourably on economic than personal impact (last year’s two-point differential was the closest any had yet come to breaking the mould), the trendline points to a tendency for budgets to be generally perceived either as good or bad, reflected in relatively strong or weak results for both measures. Last week’s budget is the one marked in red – its placement below the trendline indicates that, as mediocre budgets go, respondents felt this one relatively better for themselves than for the economy.
Lest anyone overestimate the electoral significance of this result, the best result of plus 48 was at the budget preceding the defeat of the Howard government in 2007. Perhaps more to the point, the minus 11 rating on the question of whether the Coalition would have done better is part of the course for a Labor budget (overall average minus 10.4%) – consistent with the fact that the Coalition generally does better on economic management polling, their budgets tend to do better on this question than Labor’s (average of minus 17.3%, the overall overage being minus 14.2%). Another reason to doubt the budget’s electoral impact is the one just noted by Essential Research – that voters were unusually disinterested on this occasion, which does not factor in to Newspoll’s calculations.
Finally, some more on YouGov’s MRP poll, which didn’t get the attention it warranted amid the Sunday polling avalanche. Even more so than the first wave in late January and early February, the second wave from March was distinctive in suggesting that Labor is actually holding up well in Victoria – so much so that the lineball Liberal-held seat of Deakin is rated “toss-up Labor”, while the two seats rated more likely than not to be Liberal gains in the first wave, Chisholm and Deakin and now rated “lean Labor”. Even with five seats in the state now back in the their column, New South Wales continues to be rated the most troublesome state for Labor, being home to all four of the seats likely to be lost.
Since the post-stratification approach leans heavily on demographic variables in estimating seat-level results, I have made an effort to identify the underlying changes in the survey that have yielded the movement from the first wave to the second, which ranges from five points towards Labor (in Bean and Canning) to three points towards the Liberals (in Watson). This has been done through a linear regression analysis that uses the change in Coalition two-party preferred from one wave to the next as the dependent variable, with predictor variables of state/territory, AEC seat classification (inner metropolitan, outer metropolitan, provincial or rural) and four census demographic variables yielded through trial and error.
The demographic variables found to be highly significant (as indicated by the three asterisks) are Index of Relative Socioeconomic Advantage and Disadvantage, which is an Australian Bureau of Statistics measure of general affluence that avoids the pitfalls of income-based measures; the percentage of the population aged 55 and over; the percentage of the 18-plus population with trade certificates; and the percentage who primarily speak a Chinese language at home. The negative coefficients indicate that electorates scoring high on these measures tended to move most strongly to Labor from the first wave to the second. Conversely, the state/territory and AEC region classification variables prove not to be too illuminating. Keep in mind that what’s being measured here is change between wave one and wave two, not swing since 2022 – a potential subject for a future post.
Probably the most significant story I’ve heard about Elon Musk is that apparently in school he poked fun at a classmate whose father had committed suicide. That classmate then pushed him down a flight of stairs and that put him in hospital with broken bones.
Musk’s father had intended to put that classmate through the courts, but when he heard that Elon had done something so inexplicably evil like that, he let the whole matter slide without such litigation.
Can you believe you live in the Matrix and not be crazy?
I think yes.
What would a Psychiatrist classify someone who held those beliefs?
Delusional. But Einstein, Newton, Heisenberg, Gödel etc were as well by definition. Then again Newton and Gödel really were crazy.
It’s not evil kirsdarke. Kids can be cruel sometimes. Hopefully they grow out of it.
Lefty brawler do you have any Insiders in the coalition camp because my gut feeling is they did not want Trump to win they made a race that they could easily win and to erase now they have to fight with now Angus Taylor saying that Elon musk’s genius no realizing more than 60% of the country hates him so I don’t know what the f***** going on with them I would not be surprised if they got internal poll in the show and that they ain’t getting the swings they need but eternal polling could be wrong too I don’t know it’s just feels like now Peter’s talking s*** about Trump now he’s trying to back away from being Trump it’s a bit too late
Not convinced this is a great idea. We’ll see.
” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has made an eleventh-hour bid to avoid the worst of US President Donald Trump’s trade strikes by enlisting the advice of one of the most influential Australians in Trump’s orbit, golf star Greg Norman.
Albanese dined with Norman in Melbourne on Wednesday night after a day campaigning in Victoria and Tasmania…”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-enlists-greg-norman-s-help-in-last-ditch-effort-to-avoid-trump-tariffs-20250402-p5lop9.html
Quentin yes I have a good source who is almost call a friend. He was accused of
Leaking the Lindsay flyer scandal to foley in2007. Yes the panic the libs have is no uniform tracking and without any consistent lurching. They are fked basically
Another point expanding on the impending Macnamara decision and how counterproductive it would be.
Current state (assuming a normal Labor HTVC): the Liberals are uncompetitive, so the Greens are the only competitive opponent.
This is actually the best thing Josh Burns has going for him in such a marginal contest, in an election Labor are expected to do poorly in (at least in Victoria).
A campaign centred on “a vote for the Liberals will elect the Greens”, or “The Liberals can’t win, vote Labor to keep the Greens out” (with reinforcement in Jewish media outlets) would be powerful and his best chance to retain the seat.
Now, what would an open ticket do? It would make Macnamara a legitimate three-way race by making the Liberals competitive.
If the Liberals are seen to be competitive, and the Greens less of a threat, not only does that whole strategy go out the window, but what incentive does a Liberal leaning anti-Greens voter now have to vote Labor? Much less. They may as well just vote Liberal if they think they can win without risking the Greens.
An open ticket would be more likely to drop Burns to third place, by making the Liberals a competitive alternative.
Burns and Labor should really be focusing the Macnamara campaign on “only a vote for Labor can keep the Greens out”, and this relies on keeping the Liberals in an uncompetitive position.
dave says:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 10:59 pm
It’s not evil kirsdarke. Kids can be cruel sometimes. Hopefully they grow out of it.
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It’s beyond being cruel, if true and assuming he knew the news it suggests a serious deficit in empathy to attack someone when their parent has just died.
I don’t think it’s ‘beyond cruel’. Cruelty can stretch a fair way.
Enjoying watching this budding dalliance between nath and entropy. The young lad has surely rebounded from the abrupt about face of Lars over a year or so ago
He said Your Dad was stupid. It’s cruel but not sociopathic. He’s got ASD.
mj @ #508 Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025 – 11:21 pm
Reference is here:
https://www.news24.com/fin24/economy/elon-musk-made-hurtful-comment-to-fellow-pupil-who-left-him-hospitalised-father-says-20220602
Lefty brawler hmm that kind of makes sense with yougov seat polling only getting lnp a couple of seats bat not not enough to even get minority hmm I wonder how the labour camp doing at the moment wonder cautionally optimistic because I would
dave says:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 11:25 pm
I don’t think it’s ‘beyond cruel’. Cruelty can stretch a fair way.
———
We could debate the semantics and his past but bottom line is he’s clearly not a kind and venerable person.
leftieBrawlersays:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 11:28 pm
Enjoying watching this budding dalliance between nath and entropy. The young lad has surely rebounded from the abrupt about face of Lars over a year or so ago
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I’m not sure what this means but I will say that Entropy and I have bonded over my decapitation threats. This in no way impacts upon my deep and lasting bonds with Dear Lars.
Quentin yes it appears terminal for Futton because he nailed his hopes to to the trump mast way too early and way too emphatically.
But I hear moderates are having a field day and will recapture control of the caucus in opposition sans Constance it appears.
Labor HQ has recently spend big bucks over the last 48 hours dropping a tranche of Albo front and centre messages on social media. You don’t waste money on that stuff unless you’ve got data to back it u.
Latest focus groups suggesting the 40k plus cut to the APS has gone down like a lead balloon and sealed dutt’s fate.
In the post trump election hysteria the LNP forgot that culturally Australia has a socialism lite default footing. They forgot this and have resigned themselves to another term in the wilderness.
Musk derangement syndrome!
Tomorrow we will see Peak Trump derangement syndrome.
Good so see a billionaire work for nothing in service to his country saving it tens of billions via DOGE.
Sorry nath- I was referencing the sudden and cold ending of entrophy’s apprenticeship over Vaucluse way by Lars. I suspect entropy may have accidentally misplaced his worry beads
Reference is here:
https://www.news24.com/fin24/economy/elon-musk-made-hurtful-comment-to-fellow-pupil-who-left-him-hospitalised-father-says-20220602
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Thanks Kirsdarke for the link.
So Musk said something cruel when he was a kid.
So what.
I remember sinking my teeth into another Grade Prep student as a 5 year old. Doesn’t make me a vampire.
pied piper says:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 11:39 pm
Musk derangement syndrome!
———
Are you qualified to diagnose?
“Musk derangement syndrome”
Yes Musk fanbois really are something
Well Lefty if that’s true then they should have Game Plan the Trump win they also know that trump’s not popular here so I don’t know what the f*** they’re thinking tin their campaign towards him hopefully the moderates get control of the party back but I’m still cautiously optimistic
Ymca….
Harris is visiting Australia soon to speak at a conference.
Word salad alert!
Irrespective Nath I think you and I have had one of our good nights on PB- Original, thought provoking contributions and commentary with just a minimal percentage of stupid personal attack jibes at other bludgers. Young entropy knows we have his best interests at heart at the end of the day.
I’d also hope that on the balance of probability William aka man with the big stick will begrudgingly tolerate our collective 2.0 PB incarnations as long as we stay within the compliance lines
A little doco on that El Salvador Terrorist Prison.
Just a giant violation of human rights. But when you see those gang members staring silently outward you gotta be thankful for those bars.
I’m not sure if anything less than these conditions can keep these gangs down.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-Oz14D5sz0
leftieBrawlersays:
I’d also hope that on the balance of probability William aka man with the big stick will begrudgingly tolerate our collective 2.0 PB incarnations as long as we stay within the compliance lines
_____________________________________
I am hoping that one day William will name me his deputy with full plenipotentiary powers in his absence and to discipline others.
Nath William doesn’t really operate that way. Proactive warnings aren’t his thing- more so he’ll allow you to go so far until you cross the line and then it’s good night G Growler.
I respect William for that. If you cross his lines it’s game over. Similarly if you engage in open defiance of him it’s a similar fate- as both of you found out when attempting to defend a publicly passed out Barnaby or excessive rage against the Catholic Church respectively
leftieBrawlersays:
I respect William for that. If you cross his lines it’s game over. Similarly if you engage in open defiance of him it’s a similar fate- as both of you found out when attempting to defend a publicly passed out Barnaby or excessive rage against the Catholic Church respectively
__________
Huh? I never got banned for anything to do with Barnaby Joyce or the Catholic Church. I can’t remember what it was to be honest.
paul A says:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 9:51 pm
sillymomma,
For a vote to be counted, it has to have the numbers filled out.
Bob Brown’s article is asserting that the Greens should consider placing the ALP lower than than the Libs. If you can’t understand the difference between a formal and informal vote, I can’t help you.
The obvious assertion from Brown is recommending to his supporters to place the Libs higher than Labor. I don’t think anyone can draw any other conclusion than that. If he wanted to recommend an “open ticket” he would’ve told the journo.
Yup. Brown has always been emotionally close to the Reactionaries. He despises Labor. Always has.
Nath you got banned for raging and misdirected anger. You were enraged by the correlation between the Catholic Church and pedo priests but took it out on William for no rhyme or reason in-spite of him asking you to cease. GG was managed out after trying to explain away Barnaby Joyce being passed out drunk in a Canberra car park.
So Bob Brown would have said the Greens should run an open ticket if he didn’t mean they should put the Liberals ahead of Labor, but he wouldn’t have said they should put the Liberals ahead of Labor if that was what he meant. There’s no point trying to reason with you idiots.
”
Trentsays:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 11:15 pm
Another point expanding on the impending Macnamara decision and how counterproductive it would be.
Current state (assuming a normal Labor HTVC): the Liberals are uncompetitive, so the Greens are the only competitive opponent.
This is actually the best thing Josh Burns has going for him in such a marginal contest, in an election Labor are expected to do poorly in (at least in Victoria).
A campaign centred on “a vote for the Liberals will elect the Greens”, or “The Liberals can’t win, vote Labor to keep the Greens out” (with reinforcement in Jewish media outlets) would be powerful and his best chance to retain the seat.
Now, what would an open ticket do? It would make Macnamara a legitimate three-way race by making the Liberals competitive.
If the Liberals are seen to be competitive, and the Greens less of a threat, not only does that whole strategy go out the window, but what incentive does a Liberal leaning anti-Greens voter now have to vote Labor? Much less. They may as well just vote Liberal if they think they can win without risking the Greens.
An open ticket would be more likely to drop Burns to third place, by making the Liberals a competitive alternative.
Burns and Labor should really be focusing the Macnamara campaign on “only a vote for Labor can keep the Greens out”, and this relies on keeping the Liberals in an uncompetitive position.
”
Another good post Trent. I like your way of thinking. There is stark difference between you and some other posters, who say they will vote Greens/ Teals first and muddy the waters about other preferences.
And there are a lot of idiots here tonight William !
Stop it, LB. Everything you’re saying is wrong.
Except for that last bit.
leftieBrawlersays:
Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 12:23 am
Nath you got banned for raging and misdirected anger. You were enraged by the correlation between the Catholic Church and pedo priests but took it out on William for no rhyme or reason in-spite of him asking you to cease
______________________
No that’s not right. I don’t post on pedo priests.
I think I was banned because I got angry that William was cutting my posts and got snippy with him. Which I shouldn’t have, cos it is his house.
But when I have a little bit too much vodka I get argumentative. Not that I’m a mean drunk, I’m actually a happy drunk, but I get argumentative, not angry.
Fair enough, on reflection I really over simplified it all.
Not over-simplified. Wrong.
leftieBrawlersays:
Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 12:32 am
Fair enough, on reflection I really over simplified it all.
______________
I think you are talking about that rainmaker guy. South Australian Catholic dude, huge Peter M fanboy.
William do you have any thoughts on 1993 vs 2025? Are you seeing some broad correlations ?
Not particularly.
Is that because you reserve the right to preserve professional ambiguity or genuinely don’t see any correlation ?
If you’re asking if Labor might over-perform the polls, I see no particular reason to think so.
LB you pest. You are about to be hit with a big stick lol
Fair enough William. I’m seeing a lurch of terminal trajectory in the data I get a glimpse of for Dutton and these capture periods are all within the last 2-: weeks and across many different electorates country wide
They’ve got an improving position for Labor in common, I guess.
Dave 12.05am
{I am hoping that one day William will name me his deputy with full plenipotentiary powers in his absence and to discipline others.]
The full circle!
Any chance of a new WA thread? Lower house is in, with fun non-standard results in a few seats. (Thornlie, Bassendean, Bibra Lake.)
Too tired to read all this Macnamara stuff – maybe later today.
Someone previously noted that Advance Australia seemed to have pivoted from targeting only the Greens to targeting Labor – maybe they thought Dutton had the election in the bag but are now not so confident.