Before we proceed with squeezing some last juice out of the post-budget polling, note that there are two other fresh posts below this one: one a guess post from Adrian Beaumont on Canada and the United States, the other a summary of recent state polling from New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria.
Part of the latter is a new DemosAU poll from New South Wales encompassing federal as well as state voting intention. The federal voting intention numbers have the Coalition leading 51-49, compared with 51.4-48.6 to Labor at the 2022 election, from primary votes of Labor 30% (33.4% in 2022), Coalition 38% (36.5%), Greens 12% (10.0%) and One Nation 9% (4.9%). The poll also finds Anthony Albanese leading Peter Dutton 39-38 on preferred prime minister, and 31% holding that Australia is headed in the right direction compared with 52% for the contrary view. The poll was conducted last Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1013.
The full results from the Essential Research poll included results on the budget, including a finding that less attention was paid to it than the last two, with 36% saying they paid a lot of attention (down four on last year and nine on the year before) and 15% that they had paid no attention (up four on last year and three on the year before). Forty-one per cent felt the budget would be good for the well off (down five on last year and unchanged on the year before) and 27% felt it would be good for those on lower incomes (down three last year and fourteen on an unusual result the year before). A question on the Trump administration’s tariffs finds 37% holding that Australia should look for new trade relationships, 29% that retaliatory tariffs should be imposed, and 35% that the priority should be to remain on good terms with the US and seek exemptions.
Now for a closer look at Newspoll’s budget responses, which maintain a consistent set of such questions that the pollster in its various incarnations has been posing after each budget since 1988, encompassing 39 budgets overall. The minus 10 rating for last week’s budget in terms of its impact on the economy was the fourth worst result yet recorded, surpassed only by three successive Hawke-Keating government budgets in 1991, 1992 and 1993 (the latter was in a league of its own at minus 42, the budget in question being remembered for its breach of Paul Keating’s “L-A-W” tax cuts promise). The minus 19 rating on impact on personal situation, by contrast, rates around the middle of the field.
The chart below records how each budget scored on the two measures. While respondents invariably score budgets more favourably on economic than personal impact (last year’s two-point differential was the closest any had yet come to breaking the mould), the trendline points to a tendency for budgets to be generally perceived either as good or bad, reflected in relatively strong or weak results for both measures. Last week’s budget is the one marked in red – its placement below the trendline indicates that, as mediocre budgets go, respondents felt this one relatively better for themselves than for the economy.
Lest anyone overestimate the electoral significance of this result, the best result of plus 48 was at the budget preceding the defeat of the Howard government in 2007. Perhaps more to the point, the minus 11 rating on the question of whether the Coalition would have done better is part of the course for a Labor budget (overall average minus 10.4%) – consistent with the fact that the Coalition generally does better on economic management polling, their budgets tend to do better on this question than Labor’s (average of minus 17.3%, the overall overage being minus 14.2%). Another reason to doubt the budget’s electoral impact is the one just noted by Essential Research – that voters were unusually disinterested on this occasion, which does not factor in to Newspoll’s calculations.
Finally, some more on YouGov’s MRP poll, which didn’t get the attention it warranted amid the Sunday polling avalanche. Even more so than the first wave in late January and early February, the second wave from March was distinctive in suggesting that Labor is actually holding up well in Victoria – so much so that the lineball Liberal-held seat of Deakin is rated “toss-up Labor”, while the two seats rated more likely than not to be Liberal gains in the first wave, Chisholm and Deakin and now rated “lean Labor”. Even with five seats in the state now back in the their column, New South Wales continues to be rated the most troublesome state for Labor, being home to all four of the seats likely to be lost.
Since the post-stratification approach leans heavily on demographic variables in estimating seat-level results, I have made an effort to identify the underlying changes in the survey that have yielded the movement from the first wave to the second, which ranges from five points towards Labor (in Bean and Canning) to three points towards the Liberals (in Watson). This has been done through a linear regression analysis that uses the change in Coalition two-party preferred from one wave to the next as the dependent variable, with predictor variables of state/territory, AEC seat classification (inner metropolitan, outer metropolitan, provincial or rural) and four census demographic variables yielded through trial and error.
The demographic variables found to be highly significant (as indicated by the three asterisks) are Index of Relative Socioeconomic Advantage and Disadvantage, which is an Australian Bureau of Statistics measure of general affluence that avoids the pitfalls of income-based measures; the percentage of the population aged 55 and over; the percentage of the 18-plus population with trade certificates; and the percentage who primarily speak a Chinese language at home. The negative coefficients indicate that electorates scoring high on these measures tended to move most strongly to Labor from the first wave to the second. Conversely, the state/territory and AEC region classification variables prove not to be too illuminating. Keep in mind that what’s being measured here is change between wave one and wave two, not swing since 2022 – a potential subject for a future post.
Doesn’t look like the ALP campaign in Tasmania is making any sense.
Albo is going all out to try and get Urquhart elected, telling everyone he will protect “salmon farming”, and then after the election (if he wins), Urquhart (if elected) will then provide the vote to shit on the salmon industry in her patch, to stop the salmon shitting on the maugaen skate.
This doesn’t sound like a proper campaign to me.
“Every man and his salmon shitting on each other in Tassie”.
Tasmanian’s are fairly cluey. This sounds like a crazy campaign from the Federal ALP in Tassie.
Not only will he lose Braddon, but he’s likely to lose Lyons as well.
This is bullshit.
I’m going to make a prediction. The Greens in Tasmania will direct their preferences. Due to the contra deals in return.
A surprisingly high number of voters do not follow the HTV cards for the senate. Literally North of 50% when the ALP names a bunch of random leftist before the Greens at 6th. Same thing for the Greens. LNP voters tend to follow the cards a little better but there is still quite high chunk going their own way.
Meanwhile from Comedy Central at the Guardian we get this headline…
Labor to consider WTO challenge if Trump targets Australia with ‘liberation day’ tariffs
Ben Doherty, Dan Jervis-Bardy and Patrick Commins
Seriously Chump couldn’t care less about WTO or any authoritative body that doesn’t reside in his tiny tiny shriveled mind
“sprocket_says:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 8:43 pm
The octogenarian former PM is being rolled out in WA – good luck!”
It’s hilarious they think Howard is a vote winner.
At his last election even the Boomers PV for the Coalition fell to 43%. Gen X 38% and the early “millennials” 35%. The Silent Generation (50% PV for the LNP in 2007) are an ever decreasing share of the vote
Kirsdarkesays:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 9:38 pm
Pegasus @ #435 Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025 – 9:32 pm
Has anyone got access to a paywalled article in The Age?
Labor moves to punish Greens over Gaza stance – and it could play into Liberal hands
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-moves-to-punish-greens-over-gaza-stance-and-it-could-play-into-liberal-hands-20250402-p5loli.html
Basically Labor is considering denying preferences to the Greens in Macnamara. Not explicitly preferencing the Liberals above them, just not endorsing a preference on the HTV cards.
====================================================
So the same as what Bob Brown is supposedly saying in Tasmania?. I hope Labor worded this better than Bob Brown did. As i can see how Paul A could have interpreted it the way he did.
Thanks Trent
paul A,
Your chutzpah is, um, admirable. You’ve just been sliced and diced over one ridiculous assertion. But in true Liberal zealot fashion, you don’t take a backward step, you just bowl up another one.
@Entropy at 9:43pm
For the moment it’s off-the-record talks that are being reported.
If Labor want to punish The Greens over their Gaza stance, that can only cut Dutton’s grass and play into Labor’s hands. Win-Win. Welcome to election campaign politics.
People doubted Paul’s assertion that Hitler was welcomed by Parisians in 1940 but he produced video evidence that could be interpreted that way, if you squint.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 9:41 pm
I’m going to make a prediction. The Greens in Tasmania will direct their preferences. Due to the contra deals in return.
_____________________
Albo said no deals.
What part of that do you not understand.
C’mon. It’s not rocket science.
sillymomma,
For a vote to be counted, it has to have the numbers filled out.
Bob Brown’s article is asserting that the Greens should consider placing the ALP lower than than the Libs. If you can’t understand the difference between a formal and informal vote, I can’t help you.
The obvious assertion from Brown is recommending to his supporters to place the Libs higher than Labor. I don’t think anyone can draw any other conclusion than that. If he wanted to recommend an “open ticket” he would’ve told the journo.
Local 7/11 have a sign out 25 cents off per litre fuel if you vote LNP.
Are people really interested in reading the article? I have a sub.
Just to remind people how over the top The Greens got after the synagogue was bombed:
Deesays:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 9:51 pm
Local 7/11 have a sign out 25 cents off per litre fuel if you vote LNP.
I saw it too. It was labelled ‘Immediate Cost of Living Relief’. Shonky.
The post here is very funny.
https://www.facebook.com/laborforbradfield/
Whichever of the “duopoly” you place higher on your preferences matters because in 90% of electorates one or other is going to be the winner, so think carefully.
Anyone claiming to be green but recommends preferencing the Coalition candidate higher is just pretending. Does anyone imagine that the Coalition gives a stuff about the Maugean Skate? Or anything else in the environment beyond its potential to be mined, logged, harvested or developed?
“ Sounds like certain Labor figures are trying to pressure the national executive into running an open ticket in Macnamara to prevent the Greens from winning and “send a message” to the 12% Jewish community that they stand with Israel and against the Greens.
Running an open HTVC that could increase the chance of a Liberal gain in such a tight election is an idiotic idea.”
___
Apparently it was the Maoists who bashed Danby in the hurley burley days of AUS student politics in the mid 70s. He’s not fully recovered to this day.
Sorry to be persnickety Steve777, but last time the duopoly only got 89 percent of the electorates (135 out of 151). My bet is that this time it’ll be even lower.
I can’t find any reference for this.
Most of the Green supporters I know are not some kind of freak show – a body with four arms and two legs. They are usually run-of-the-mill folk (mainly former Labor voters) who feel Labor is not moving fast and strongly enough on their main issue of climate change.
For the most part their view of Dutton and the LNP in general is to scorn them.
There are always exceptions of course…….
I have no problem with the Greens provided they recognise who the real political enemy is…and it ain’t the Labor party.
It is galling for the Greens that they get a substantially higher vote than the Nationals in all kinds of elections but unfortunately for the Greens (and good for Labor in general terms) their vote is spread like very thin icing on a wide cake whereas the Nationals vote of 3% is glued into around 10 or so of the poorest electorates in the country.
Meanwhile, the Nationals hate the Greens with a passion.
Politics is a strange business.
OK I had to look up “persnickety”. Didn’t know it was a real word.
But yes, I’m hoping we can eject a couple more “Liberals” from seats that Labor has no hope of winning, replacing them with centrist or left-ish independents.
Anyone buying their petrol from 7/11 has more money than sense – at least this is the case on the Goldie. Accordingly, it’s doubtful that they’ll take much notice of a temporary decrease in the fuel excise.
What Bob Brown actually said, which comes from the very same article that Paula linked:
“Greens voters should be directed to preference like-minded candidates on this critical issue, but then be left to decide which of the old parties to put last.”
Tricot,
That’s excellent advice about knowing who the real enemy is. For all parties.
And, at the end of the day the steers were unexpectedly ushered off the lush, green fields of endless grass that they had become accustomed to as some sort of promised land- ushered in single file awaiting the unavoidable, inevitability of a crude bolt through the skull.
Interesting to hear of all the disarray in several state Lib executives with the continuing cluster fuck of internal tracking that have initiated cognitive meltdowns and a collapse of command and control.
They are now transitioning to strategies to try and prevent an outright Labor simple majority in the reps.
Donald trump has single handedly dismantled any prospect of a Dutton premiership in any form.
Even Sky News has given up. Exchange of the day surely between sky news lackey and Dutton:
Sky lackey: “why not wave through the tax cuts if you are the party of lower taxes?
Dutton: “well why vote for us if we’re just going to be a carbon copy of the Labor party?”
Sky lackey: “so that goes to the core issue of why would you automatically match Labor’s Medicare bulk billing promises but not their tax cuts- you know as the party of lower taxes??”
It’s all falling apart for Dutton. A telling metric is the sudden filling of Albo’s diary with backbenchers across the continent now suddenly wanting him to drop by and causing unexpected logistical and planning headaches for the AFP close personal protection squad and the protective services division.
Mark my words- this Labor win will make Keating’s 93’ upset look underwhelming.
The sweetest victory of all is coming to a theatre near you in may.
P1 in particular will be hurting with my latest Gilmore data pack of 250 respondents giving it to Labor 50.7-49.3.
Over the term of this election the average voter will save $750 from Labor tax cuts and $300 from the Liberal Party’s fuel cut.
Absolutely correct Mavis!
Donald Duttonsays:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 10:26 pm
What Bob Brown actually said, which comes from the very same article that Paula linked:
“Greens voters should be directed to preference like-minded candidates on this critical issue, but then be left to decide which of the old parties to put last.”
=========================================================
That statement is much clearer on his actual intention here.
I keep saying Musk is only understandable when you realise he genuinely thinks he is living in someone’s digital simulation like The Matrix. If you allow for his axioms, he is right mathematically. It’s a bizarre way of thinking but very liberating.
I don’t think he’s not crazy. He’s very different.
Boerwar at 8:32 pm
“Ah yes. Sports Rorts McKenzie. Then there is Cash who refused to co-operate with the ADF in relation to alleged criminal behaviours in her Ministerial Office. Now, in some sort of Trumpian fuck you, Dutton has appointed Cash as Shadow AG. Robert who deserves a whole page for his enterprise. Dutton’s various private dealings in shares, Gofundme flood aid, property and childcare. Millions and millions and millions. Joyce and his mongrel bit of property out Inland Rail way. Joyce and his trashing of a commonwealth vehicle in a flooded creek. Taylor and his allegedly illegal property clearing company. The stupendous amounts of money that went somewhere to the Caribbean by way of water dealings in Queensland. Then there is Arthur who had a shocking case of amnesia on Sydney Water. Then there is the company that had something like a wooden shed somewhere in a sand dune. Got a stupendous contract. Then there was the Great Barrier Reef Foundation. No process. No tenders. No nothing. They got around half a billion with various bits of the contract not even filled in. Then there were those mates of the GG. Did very well indeed. Then there were the dozens of useless untalented party hack has beens who were appointed to that cesspit of Liberal and Nationals mediocrity – the AAT.
Then there is Ley who, despite piously squeaking about how people don’t value free things (like free healthcare and free education), nevertheless availed herself of free travel on the taxpayer to the Goldie for a spot of the old property speculation.
They are all still there, drooling for the moolah.”
Thanks for so usefully highlighting the ALP’s massive blunder in creating a toothless, gormless, opaque and untrustworthy NACC. In a different universe, modelled on NSW with its ICAC, the shysters you have listed would have been swinging in the breeze for the last 12 months for all the world to see, and the coming election probably wouldn’t even have been close.
Anyone buying anything from 7/11 has more money than sense.
FDOTM – Australia! It’s time to (metaphorically) kick the duopoly in the nads and elect a minority government
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2025/apr/02/australia-its-time-to-metaphorically-kick-the-duopoly-in-the-nads-and-elect-a-minority-government#img-1
I’d estimate that the total value of the Jewish Labor vote in Macnamara is worth about 4% (that’s basically 33% of the overall Jewish vote) because the Jewish community is where the Liberal vote is already concentrated.
That 4% of voters is really just where Labor need to be careful with their messaging so they don’t send those voters into the arms of the Liberals.
Realistically it’s a very small portion of that 4% that would change their vote over a HTVC anyway when they know they could just ignore it.
If Labor are worried a HTVC putting the Greens above the Liberals might make some of those voters switch to the Liberals in protest, that would make no sense because it would only increase the chance of a Greens win.
If anything, from a strategic perspective a Labor HTVC that maximises the chance of the Greens winning a Greens vs Liberal 2CP if Labor fall to third would only be more reason for Jewish/Zionist voters to place a tactical vote with Labor and prevent that scenario from even occurring.
Diogenessays:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 10:34 pm
I keep saying Musk is only understandable when you realise he genuinely thinks he is living in someone’s digital simulation like The Matrix. If you allow for his axioms, he is right mathematically. It’s a bizarre way of thinking but very liberating.
I don’t think he’s not crazy. He’s very different.
====================================================
Can you believe you live in the Matrix and not be crazy?
What would a Psychiatrist classify someone who held those beliefs?
Diogenes @ #482 Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025 – 10:34 pm
I’ve noticed he’s also particularly whiny. I heard live-mic comment where he was essentially being like “Why is everyone being mean to me and Tesla and DOGE? I’m the special birthday boy…”
Entropy you do know instant coffee is still banned in your supported independent living studio ?
bushmaster in Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_a-O-n3QCQ
leftieBrawlersays:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 10:40 pm
Entropy you do know instant coffee is still banned in your supported independent living studio ?
=======================================================
I live rent free in your mind still i notice.
MICHAEL DANBY, the driving force
behind the campaign to give Australian
students a direct say in the election of
their national leaders, was bashed in
Melbourne last week. He was beaten
about the head with sticks, hospitalised,
discharged and then re-admitted for
neurological tests. Most students, no
matter what their political positions,
blame the assault on “Maoists.”
The bulletin.Vol. 099 No. 5057 (14 May 1977)
Musk is also understandable through the prism of narcissism, entitlement and antisocial personality disorder. Or just a plain old-fashioned arsehole.
Of course by ‘Maoists’ they really mean Joan Kirner.
Thanks Dave. I didn’t know The Bulletin was on Trove.
Well there are some interesting bits and bobs about Danby’s student politics days.
https://michaeleasson.com/political-history/1977-the-first-national-conference-of-alp-students-calps/
And this
https://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-1541335100/view?sectionId=nla.obj-1727400026&partId=nla.obj-1541663817
“ MICHAEL DANBY, the driving force
behind the campaign to give Australian
students a direct say in the election of
their national leaders, was bashed in
Melbourne last week. He was beaten
about the head with sticks, hospitalised,
discharged and then re-admitted for
neurological tests. Most students, no
matter what their political positions,
blame the assault on “Maoists.” ”
Edit: hat tip to Quick Draw Dave.
davesays:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 10:48 pm
Of course by ‘Maoists’ they really mean Joan Kirner.
==============================================
I heard it was a gang, a gang of four.
I think it was the same time that Abbott was also bashed by ‘Maoists’ which was code for ‘ordinary decent people’.
Entropysays:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 10:50 pm
davesays:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 10:48 pm
Of course by ‘Maoists’ they really mean Joan Kirner.
==============================================
I heard it was a gang, a gang of four.
____________
🙂
Ante Meridian says:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 10:26 pm
Tricot,
That’s excellent advice about knowing who the real enemy is. For all parties
————
Somewhat like-minded people and parties generally start focusing on their common foes come election time. Plenty of time between elections for the bickering to resume.