Before we proceed with squeezing some last juice out of the post-budget polling, note that there are two other fresh posts below this one: one a guess post from Adrian Beaumont on Canada and the United States, the other a summary of recent state polling from New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria.
Part of the latter is a new DemosAU poll from New South Wales encompassing federal as well as state voting intention. The federal voting intention numbers have the Coalition leading 51-49, compared with 51.4-48.6 to Labor at the 2022 election, from primary votes of Labor 30% (33.4% in 2022), Coalition 38% (36.5%), Greens 12% (10.0%) and One Nation 9% (4.9%). The poll also finds Anthony Albanese leading Peter Dutton 39-38 on preferred prime minister, and 31% holding that Australia is headed in the right direction compared with 52% for the contrary view. The poll was conducted last Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1013.
The full results from the Essential Research poll included results on the budget, including a finding that less attention was paid to it than the last two, with 36% saying they paid a lot of attention (down four on last year and nine on the year before) and 15% that they had paid no attention (up four on last year and three on the year before). Forty-one per cent felt the budget would be good for the well off (down five on last year and unchanged on the year before) and 27% felt it would be good for those on lower incomes (down three last year and fourteen on an unusual result the year before). A question on the Trump administration’s tariffs finds 37% holding that Australia should look for new trade relationships, 29% that retaliatory tariffs should be imposed, and 35% that the priority should be to remain on good terms with the US and seek exemptions.
Now for a closer look at Newspoll’s budget responses, which maintain a consistent set of such questions that the pollster in its various incarnations has been posing after each budget since 1988, encompassing 39 budgets overall. The minus 10 rating for last week’s budget in terms of its impact on the economy was the fourth worst result yet recorded, surpassed only by three successive Hawke-Keating government budgets in 1991, 1992 and 1993 (the latter was in a league of its own at minus 42, the budget in question being remembered for its breach of Paul Keating’s “L-A-W” tax cuts promise). The minus 19 rating on impact on personal situation, by contrast, rates around the middle of the field.
The chart below records how each budget scored on the two measures. While respondents invariably score budgets more favourably on economic than personal impact (last year’s two-point differential was the closest any had yet come to breaking the mould), the trendline points to a tendency for budgets to be generally perceived either as good or bad, reflected in relatively strong or weak results for both measures. Last week’s budget is the one marked in red – its placement below the trendline indicates that, as mediocre budgets go, respondents felt this one relatively better for themselves than for the economy.
Lest anyone overestimate the electoral significance of this result, the best result of plus 48 was at the budget preceding the defeat of the Howard government in 2007. Perhaps more to the point, the minus 11 rating on the question of whether the Coalition would have done better is part of the course for a Labor budget (overall average minus 10.4%) – consistent with the fact that the Coalition generally does better on economic management polling, their budgets tend to do better on this question than Labor’s (average of minus 17.3%, the overall overage being minus 14.2%). Another reason to doubt the budget’s electoral impact is the one just noted by Essential Research – that voters were unusually disinterested on this occasion, which does not factor in to Newspoll’s calculations.
Finally, some more on YouGov’s MRP poll, which didn’t get the attention it warranted amid the Sunday polling avalanche. Even more so than the first wave in late January and early February, the second wave from March was distinctive in suggesting that Labor is actually holding up well in Victoria – so much so that the lineball Liberal-held seat of Deakin is rated “toss-up Labor”, while the two seats rated more likely than not to be Liberal gains in the first wave, Chisholm and Deakin and now rated “lean Labor”. Even with five seats in the state now back in the their column, New South Wales continues to be rated the most troublesome state for Labor, being home to all four of the seats likely to be lost.
Since the post-stratification approach leans heavily on demographic variables in estimating seat-level results, I have made an effort to identify the underlying changes in the survey that have yielded the movement from the first wave to the second, which ranges from five points towards Labor (in Bean and Canning) to three points towards the Liberals (in Watson). This has been done through a linear regression analysis that uses the change in Coalition two-party preferred from one wave to the next as the dependent variable, with predictor variables of state/territory, AEC seat classification (inner metropolitan, outer metropolitan, provincial or rural) and four census demographic variables yielded through trial and error.
The demographic variables found to be highly significant (as indicated by the three asterisks) are Index of Relative Socioeconomic Advantage and Disadvantage, which is an Australian Bureau of Statistics measure of general affluence that avoids the pitfalls of income-based measures; the percentage of the population aged 55 and over; the percentage of the 18-plus population with trade certificates; and the percentage who primarily speak a Chinese language at home. The negative coefficients indicate that electorates scoring high on these measures tended to move most strongly to Labor from the first wave to the second. Conversely, the state/territory and AEC region classification variables prove not to be too illuminating. Keep in mind that what’s being measured here is change between wave one and wave two, not swing since 2022 – a potential subject for a future post.
Does this mean if election had just been held Dutton would be in retirement or applying to rejoin the Qld police force?…
Finally, some more on YouGov’s MRP poll, which didn’t get the attention it warranted amid the Sunday polling avalanche. Even more so than the first wave in late January and early February, the second wave from March was distinctive in suggesting that Labor is actually holding up well in Victoria – so much so that the lineball Liberal-held seat of Deakin is rated “toss-up Labor”, while the two seats rated more likely than not to be Liberal gains in the first wave, Chisholm and Deakin and now rated “lean Labor”. Even with five seats in the state now back in the their column, New South Wales continues to be rated the most troublesome state for Labor, being home to all four of the seats likely to be lost.
nadia88 says:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 12:15 am
My comments:
* Premier Allan is sinking like a rock in a pond.
I doubt the PM will be seen anywhere near her over the next 26 days.
* The A.L.P. federally, will not be picking up four(4) more divisions in Victoria. The poster who keeps
repeating this, needs to cease, because it simply is not happening.
—————————————-
Nadia
The actual elections have contradicted the opinion polls, there is no mythical swing to liberal party from labor ,
even the Victorian state by-election Werribee
The liberal party primary vote was under 30% , in Werribee
The federal lib/nats combined primary vote is around the same as 2022 federal election ,
I still claim the federal liberal party in Victoria , will likely lose more seats than Labor in Victoria
Sceptic,
I agree re Labor in Victoria. The masterstroke today is announcing that they will take an Inflation+ wage case to the tribunal if they are re-elected should please a hell of a lot of people in the seats with Minimum Wage Workers.
nadia88’s continued flashing of the blue petticoat for the Liberals in Victoria saying that they are going to pick up 7 seats is risible, and was even before this announcement.
Does a rude awakening beckoned for Chumps America?
Von der Leyen, speaking to the European parliament on Tuesday, said the next sectors facing tariffs would be semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and timber.
She said many Europeans felt “utterly disheartened” by the US announcements. “Europe has not started this confrontation. We do not necessarily want to retaliate, but if it is necessary we have a strong plan to retaliate and we will use it,” she said.
Without giving away details, von der Leyen said “all instruments” – all countermeasures – were on the table. “Europe holds a lot of cards. From trade to technology to the size of our market,” she said. “But this strength is also built on our readiness to take firm countermeasures if necessary.”
A reality exemplified that they can’t even get their shit together to build 500 meters of high speed rail after…. SIXTY ONE YEARS
Liberal Bennelong candidate Scott Yung failed to disclose potentially tens of thousands of dollars worth of electoral expenditure during the 2019 state election.
As he campaigned for the suburban Sydney seat of Kogarah, Yung engaged digital marketing agency Covert to run a social media content and distribution strategy on Chinese-language websites. But the agency’s work doesn’t appear on either Yung or the NSW Liberal Party’s disclosures for the election campaign, either as an electoral expense or in-kind donation.
The revelation comes just weeks after the Herald revealed Yung’s claims he fund-raised $60,000 during an intimate dinner with former prime minister John Howard at the Blue Angel restaurant in Darlinghurst. After questions arose, Yung conceded he “raised less than I had recalled at the time” but failed to specify the actual figure.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/liberal-mp-faces-more-questions-over-undisclosed-campaign-expenditure-20250331-p5lnxb.html
Tish boom! David Pope.
Like I said the other day, Dutton’s 41,000 APS jobs he wants to gut are mostly going to impact people outside of Canberra.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-says-dutton-s-public-service-cuts-are-from-the-doge-handbook-here-s-where-jobs-could-go-20250401-p5lo7v.html
William, excellent work on the MRP assumptions.
Just so I’m clear, you have picked out those ABS variables – and not relied on anything you are aware of in the YouGov methodology.
Peter Lewis from Essential has an article where he discusses subjective findings from his polling, including some historical series.
This ‘likeability’ measure jumps out…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2025/apr/01/from-babysitting-to-keeping-a-secret-the-pm-is-preferred-but-it-is-the-literal-pub-test-where-albo-stands-out
World News & Politics Patrol:
Germany Deploys Troops on Russia’s Doorstep for First Time Since World War II: https://www.newsweek.com/germany-deploys-troops-russias-doorstep-first-time-since-world-war-ii-2053614
Finland to exit landmines treaty, hike defence spending given Russia threat, PM says: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-plans-withdraw-landmines-treaty-prime-minister-says-2025-04-01/
Russia ‘Cannot Accept’ Trump’s Ukraine Peace Plans: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-cannot-accept-trump-ukraine-peace-plans-2053585
Lithuanian foreign minister: Russia offers three scenarios – war, threat or occupation: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/04/1/7505509/
Fourth missing U.S. soldier found dead in Lithuania: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/fourth-missing-us-soldier-found-dead-lithuania-rcna199112
Hamas ‘quietly drops’ thousands of deaths from casualty figures: https://www.yahoo.com/news/hamas-quietly-drops-thousands-deaths-122557133.html
Palestinian paramedics shot by Israeli forces had hands tied, eyewitnesses say: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/01/palestinian-paramedics-shot-by-israeli-forces-had-hands-tied-eyewitnesses-say
Europe joins growing list of nations preparing to oppose Trump tariffs: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-01/eu-ready-to-retaliate-to-trump-trade-tariffs/105124630
‘Not a hope in hell’: Irish politicians roundly reject Conor McGregor’s presidential bid: https://news.sky.com/story/not-a-hope-in-hell-irish-politicians-roundly-reject-conor-mcgregors-presidential-bid-13337260
China holds military drills around Taiwan, calling its president a ‘parasite’: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-holds-military-drills-taiwan-calling-president-parasite-rcna198998
Kemi Badenoch reveals she’s not seen Adolescence and policy shouldn’t be ‘created off the back of fiction’: https://www.lbc.co.uk/politics/uk-politics/adolesence-kemi-badenoch-not-watched-netflix/
UK to order third aircraft carrier due to Russia threat: https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-to-order-third-aircraft-carrier-due-to-russia-threat/
No free trade with US without free speech, Starmer warned: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/03/31/free-speech-row-threatens-starmers-us-trade-deal/
Cory Booker Has Been Bashing Trump on Senate Floor for 20 Straight Hours: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/cory-booker-bashes-trump-marathon-senate-floor-speech-1235307934/
Trump Admin Admits Deporting the Wrong Guy to El Salvador Mega Prison. They Still Won’t Bring Him Home: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-administration-admits-accidentally-deporting-maryland-father-to-el-salvador-mega-prison/
‘Obama 2028’ Trends on X As Donald Trump References Third Term Run: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-third-term-barack-obama-2028-president-2053143
Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Falls To New Low: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-approval-rating-falls-new-low-2053602
House cancels rest of votes for week after GOP floor rebellion: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5226248-house-cancels-votes-gop-rebellion/
DOJ to seek death penalty for Luigi Mangione in CEO Brian Thompson murder case: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/01/luigi-mangione-death-penalty-brian-thompson.html
Measles cases in Texas rise to 422, state health department says: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/measles-cases-texas-new-mexico-rise-470-state-health-departments-say-2025-04-01/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/04/01/trump-el-salvador-maryland-deportation/
“Unable to pressure” El Salvador to return him? When Trump has done nothing but put pressure on other nations to do what he wants. This is just pure evil.
Peter Dutton is proving to be a poor campaigner. He daily provides ammunition for his opponents, by insulting a constituency.
For example, yesterday’s insults were to Victorian commuters and more so, doubling down on the planted ‘what are you going to do about the woke curriculum…’ question in the SkyFoxNews event. He could have just stuck with some education culture wars anti-woke comments, but no…
Dutton has become distracted from his cost-of-living message by speculating that he would live in Kirribilli, not The Lodge, if elected, flagging more referendums and, on Tuesday night, questioning the role of the federal Education Department.
Despite trying to distance himself from Trump, who has just abolished America’s federal education department, Dutton, in response to a question about “woke” curriculums in schools on Monday, noted Australia’s federal department did not run any schools.
“The Commonwealth government doesn’t own or run a school, which is why people ask, well, why?
We’ve got a department of thousands and thousands of people in Canberra called the Education Department, if we don’t have a school and don’t employ a teacher?” he said on Monday.
He suggested tying federal funding to curriculum changes and, on Tuesday, went further. While promising not to cut education funding, he did not rule out targeting the department as part of his plan to cull the Commonwealth public service by 41,000 jobs.
“We want to take waste out of the federal budget and put it back into frontline services, that’s the first point.
“The second point is that I want to make sure that our kids, whether they’re at primary school or secondary school or indeed young Australians who are at universities, are receiving the education that their parents would expect them to receive.”
Education Minister and Labor campaign spokesman Jason Clare accused Dutton of aping Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, helmed by Elon Musk.
“Peter Dutton has no ideas of his own, no plan for Australia, just half-baked ideas imported from the US,” he said.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers called the opposition leader “DOGEy Dutton”.
Greens Senator Penny Allman-Payne said that “kids in Australia deserve a world-class, free public education, not threats and bluster from a wannabe Trump”.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-pledges-to-lift-game-taylor-to-fast-track-foreign-investment-20250401-p5lo3e
I love that comic BK. I would guess that the so called murdochracy would have not given much coverage to his move to Sydney comment but it’s pretty insulting to those of us from Brisbane. We all know that Sydney is a lot more glamorous than down to earth Brissy but to have this guy rub it in our face, like can’t wait to get away from the humdrum to live life large on the harbour is an absolute whopper. I’m sure it’s going down like a lead balloon in Melbourne as well. At least he will be close to billionaire mate Hemmes. I can’t understand how the electors of Dickson who once elected Cheryl Kernot and former attorney general Lavarch and vote Labor at state level have kept sending this guy back to Canberra it is a mystery.
Members of President Donald Trump’s National Security Council, including White House national security adviser Michael Waltz, have conducted government business over personal Gmail accounts, according to documents reviewed by The Washington Post and interviews with three U.S. officials.
The use of Gmail, a far less secure method of communication than the encrypted messaging app Signal, is the latest example of questionable data security practices by top national security officials already under fire for the mistaken inclusion of a journalist in a group chat about high-level planning for military operations in Yemen.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/04/01/waltz-national-security-council-signal-gmail/
Morning all. Thanks for the international roundup HH. Neither Trump, Putin or Xi are getting any better I see.
William thanks for the analysis of the YouGov results. If Victoria is as reported I don’t see how Dutton can win? That makes his strategy of cancelling things like the rail project funding all the more bizarre to me.
I also found this Dutton promise from yesterday odd. How is having to borrow more a “solution” to housing affordability?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/02/peter-dutton-says-he-will-help-homebuyers-who-dont-have-the-bank-of-mum-and-dad-but-how-would-his-policy-work
Labor has gone for a pretty “low risk” election strategy which I am not a fan of. Yet Dutton seems to have doubled down on even less policy ambition and still hopes to live in Kirribilli, or should that be Mar-a-Harbour? Its quite an odd strategy from the LOTO.
Lead story in the SMH on Dutton’s DOGE-like cuts to the public service, kicks off with some fact checking.
It turns out Dutton is not only aping Trump’s policies, he is aping Trump’s penchant to embellish..
Dutton this week focused on the federal education department as an example of government waste, questioning why it employed “thousands and thousands of people in Canberra” when it did not run schools or hire teachers.
However, the department employs just 1639 people – about 1300 in the capital – while other federal education agencies employ 421 workers. The Coalition has also earmarked the federal health department and new jobs in veterans’ affairs for cuts but, combined, they amount to about 10,000 jobs. ,/i>
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-says-dutton-s-public-service-cuts-are-from-the-doge-handbook-here-s-where-jobs-could-go-20250401-p5lo7v.html
Fess: “Unable to pressure” El Salvador to return him? When Trump has done nothing but put pressure on other nations to do what he wants. This is just pure evil.”
—————————————————————————-
On this occasion, the US seems to be claiming that it “doesn’t hold any cards” in relation to big, scary El Salvador.
Of course it’s nonsense. Every nation has occasionally deported people by mistake. (We did a couple of times under Howard. I can’t recall their names, but one was a German tourist who was mentally ill and didn’t realise they were an Australian citizen, and another citizen of Filipino ancestry, for reasons I can’t recall). What nations do in these instances is issue a special visa to the individual concern and then negotiate their return. The fact that the guy is from El Salvador originally rather than Venezuela makes things a little more difficult. But I assume that Bukele is getting a lot of money from the US for taking these people, so there’s definitely leverage there.
This whole deportation exercise is turning into a monumental stuff-up. Kristi Noem and Tom Horman are clearly both jumped-up turkeys. As the Australian approach to offshore detention has demonstrated, there must have been options for fulfilling the same goals without ending up in this messy situation. Haste makes waste and all that.
The courts are now going to pick steadily through the cases of each deportee and probably come up with a whole lot of other misidentifications and other mistakes. If this issue ends before the Supreme Court, I wouldn’t be surprised if it were to split 7-2 against the government. (Alas, no better than that because – as I’ve posted before – Alito and Thomas would support the Trump government if it claimed that the Constitution said that all US citizens were required at all times to wear clown costumes and propeller hats.)
HH: “Members of President Donald Trump’s National Security Council, including White House national security adviser Michael Waltz, have conducted government business over personal Gmail accounts, according to documents reviewed by The Washington Post and interviews with three U.S. officials.”
—————————————————————————–
As I’ve posted before, I believe that an exciting change of career path awaits Waltz in the very near future.
Quite the dirt file on Liberal Bennelong candidate Scott Yung being revealed.
An obvious mistake was using a Chinese marketing company called ‘Covert’ to flood WeChat with undeclared campaign contributions..
PEN NAVIGATIONMENU
The Sydney Morning Herald
ExclusiveNationalNSWAustralia votes
Liberal candidate faces more questions over undisclosed campaign spending
Max Maddison
By Max Maddison
Updated April 2,
Liberal candidate for Bennelong Scott Yung failed to disclose potentially tens of thousands of dollars worth of electoral expenditure during the 2019 state election.
As he campaigned for the suburban Sydney seat of Kogarah, Yung engaged digital marketing agency Covert to run a social media content and distribution strategy on Chinese-language websites. But the agency’s work doesn’t appear on either Yung or the NSW Liberal Party’s disclosures for the election campaign, either as an electoral expense or in-kind donation.
The revelation comes just weeks after the Herald revealed Yung’s claims he fund-raised $60,000 during an intimate dinner with former prime minister John Howard at the Blue Angel restaurant in Darlinghurst. After questions arose, Yung conceded he “raised less than I had recalled at the time” but failed to specify the actual figure.
Liberal sources involved in the party’s 2019 state election campaign estimated the value of Covert’s campaign work could be in the tens of thousands of dollars. The primary marketing campaign in the seat of Kogarah, undertaken by the party’s creative agency, KWP Advertising, cost $47,000, according to disclosures with the NSW Electoral Commission.
“The Kogarah electoral role was geographically targeted on Facebook with an approximate reach of 60,000 people over the age of 18,” Covert’s website states.
“Covert went on to produce articles that were written in Chinese and distributed across WeChat media outlets as a way to build awareness for what Scott Yung stood for in the community.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/liberal-candidate-faces-more-questions-over-undisclosed-campaign-spending-20250331-p5lnxb.html
US Cartoons:
Dutton is Trump without the imagination, flair or charisma.
Nadia, in your mind, you may think you are providing great insights. To me, your loud voice is at the expense of others. Firstly suggesting we move on from Bluey. Now critiquing others well informed views, especially of Labor numbers in Victoria. My critique of you – be more humble and kind of opinions different to yours.
If you’re a federal public service worker in the burbs and regions as well the cities you could be fired if Dutton wins.
Leave Nadia alone !!
Good Morning! Here’s Your Day 6 of the Election Campaign News and Views Roundup.
A misleading political advertisement questioning climate change using a clip taken from a 20-year-old documentary has been shown more than 10 million times on YouTube. The scientist in the 2004 video said the clip was outdated and nobody from Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots contacted him before use.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-02/clive-palmer-trumpets-of-patriot-misleading-election-ad/105123094
For most people, the simple answer to Peter Dutton’s repeated question – are you better off today than you were three years ago? – is “no, I’m not”. But if Dutton can convince us this is the key question we need to answer in this election, he’ll have conned us into giving him an easy run into government. By Ross Gittins
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/dutton-wants-to-know-if-you-re-better-off-now-it-s-a-trick-question-20250401-p5lo79.html
From babysitting to keeping a secret, the PM is preferred. But it is the literal pub test where Albo stands out. Being a preferred drinking buddy does not win you an election, but it does signal who the electorate is willing to spend more time with. Peter Lewis
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2025/apr/01/from-babysitting-to-keeping-a-secret-the-pm-is-preferred-but-it-is-the-literal-pub-test-where-albo-stands-out
Politics with Michelle Grattan: Kos Samaras on polls and the people who’ll decide this election
https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-kos-samaras-on-polls-and-the-people-wholl-decide-this-election-253531
Labor says Dutton’s public service cuts are from the ‘DOGE’ handbook. Here’s where jobs could go
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-says-dutton-s-public-service-cuts-are-from-the-doge-handbook-here-s-where-jobs-could-go-20250401-p5lo7v.html
Labor will ignite a political fight over wages by urging the workplace regulator to order a real increase in pay for 2.6 million workers, reviving a central dispute from the last election and challenging the Coalition to match the move.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-lays-down-challenge-for-dutton-over-wages-20250401-p5lobe.html
Peter Dutton’s grand plan. If the nation looks after the boys, the rest will take care of itself. Forget economics, Dutton’s grand plan for the nation seems to be trickle-down gender equality.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-s-me-too-election-strategy-is-great-unless-you-re-a-woman-20250331-p5lnva.html
Inflation will remain the Reserve Bank’s number one focus, even if means more people joining the unemployment queue, according to RBA governor Michele Bullock as she warned against easing interest rates too quickly.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/reserve-bank-holds-rates-before-tariff-shock-from-us-20250401-p5lo3p.html
Liberal Bennelong candidate Scott Yung failed to disclose potentially tens of thousands of dollars worth of electoral expenditure during the 2019 state election. As he campaigned for the suburban Sydney seat of Kogarah, Yung engaged digital marketing agency Covert to run a social media content and distribution strategy on Chinese language websites. But the agency’s work doesn’t appear on either Yung or the NSW Liberal Party’s disclosures for the election campaign, either as an electoral expense or in-kind donation.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/liberal-mp-faces-more-questions-over-undisclosed-campaign-expenditure-20250331-p5lnxb.html
Scott Yung again: Candidates using influencers to bypass ‘shadow ban’ on campaigning by Chinese social media app Rednote. Guardian Exclusive: Interviews with influencers who usually post about food or real estate published on platform, which officially discourages political content
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/02/candidates-using-influencers-to-bypass-shadow-ban-on-campaigning-by-chinese-social-media-app-rednote
An exclusive survey, conducted by Resolve Political Monitor for The Age, confirms support for state Labor has collapsed to emergency levels that will shape the federal political contest in Victoria. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will campaign in Victoria on Wednesday.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/jacinta-allan-s-sinking-popularity-inflicts-brand-damage-on-albanese-s-election-hopes-20250331-p5lnyy.html
Dutton and Albanese are spruiking artificially sweet promises on supermarkets By Annabel Crabb
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-02/supermarkets-price-gouging-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-promise/105117990
A sense of optimism: independents in regional Australia claim to offer a new kind of politics, but can they win? Alex Dyson in Wannon, Caz Heise in Cowper and Kate Hook in Calare are among those hoping to upset the major parties in the federal election. But don’t call them teals
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/02/australia-federal-election-2025-regional-independents-alex-dyson-caz-heise-kate-hook
Vote Compass is back for the 2025 federal election. Here’s how it works
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-02/vote-compass-2025-federal-election-how-it-works/104967326
Some political experts believe the federal election could be won or lost in Western Sydney, a region made up of 14 seats.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-02/federal-election-2025-western-sydney-electorates-cost-of-living/105124052
It can be hard keeping on top of where the major party leaders have gone and how much they’re promising, so we’ve(SMH and The Age) been keeping a close eye on every movement and spending promise made (and will do so every day before the election on May 3).
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-ve-been-tracking-albanese-and-dutton-s-movements-so-you-don-t-have-to-20250401-p5lo3v.html
The Liberals have a Malcolm problem. It’s not their first. Fraser, now Turnbull.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-liberals-have-a-malcolm-problem-it-s-not-their-first-20250319-p5lku0.html
With growing rumblings among Coalition MPs about an underwhelming start to his campaign, Dutton knew it was not a day for slip-ups or distractions. Discipline was the key word. The opposition leader arrived in Victoria with his game face on, and a determination not to veer off message, regardless of the questions he was asked.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-harbour-views-disciplined-dutton-stays-on-message-in-melbourne-20250401-p5lo8p.html
In an echo of the drive by the Trump administration to bring a private sector approach to government, shadow treasurer Angus Taylor will use an address on Wednesday to reveal plans to create a standalone office called Investment Australia with a mandate to reduce regulatory costs and red tape.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/angus-taylor-s-plan-for-scissor-gang-to-cut-red-tape-20250401-p5lo8d.html
Peter Dutton says he will help homebuyers who don’t have the bank of mum and dad. But how would his policy work? The Coalition wants to relax home lending rules by changing the test for a person’s borrowing capacity
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/02/peter-dutton-says-he-will-help-homebuyers-who-dont-have-the-bank-of-mum-and-dad-but-how-would-his-policy-work
What exactly is the “mortgage serviceability buffer” the Coalition plans to lower?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-01/election-2025-home-lending-rules-house-prices-interest-rates/105120892
Gas producers question whether Coalition’s energy plan will cut consumer prices. Industry leaders say there is little detail on how the opposition’s policy will work and it is ‘difficult to predict’ what the final price would be
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/01/australian-election-peter-dutton-liberal-coalition-gas-energy-plan-power-prices
Peter Dutton’s plans for a national gas reservation could see Australian taxpayers effectively subsidising ongoing use of the energy, says a top legal expert. Companies from allied countries including Japan, the US and UK could sue the Australian government for “lost profits” under the opposition’s plan, using treaty law.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-02/taxpayers-on-hook-legal-threats-dutton-gas-plan/105124966
The major parties are failing on Australia’s childcare crisis this election By Adele Ferguson
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-02/childcare-centres-sector-commission-greens-pledge/105121508
Defence is shaping up to be a key election issue, whether politicians like it or not By peter Dean
https://theconversation.com/defence-is-shaping-up-to-be-a-key-election-issue-whether-politicians-like-it-or-not-253440
Racing officials are investigating an incident at Rosehill in which NSW independent MP Mark Latham allegedly launched an expletive-laden verbal onslaught against a club executive and long-time friend of Premier Chris Minns.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/unprovoked-verbal-abuse-officials-investigate-mark-latham-over-alleged-racecourse-tirade-20250401-p5lob8.html
Thousands of doctors have been ordered to call off a planned three-day strike after the NSW government launched a last-minute court bid to prevent further mass disruption to the state’s public health system.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/doctors-ordered-to-call-off-three-day-strike-in-latest-pay-dispute-20250401-p5lo53.html
Queensland police commissioner tried to access records of alleged domestic violence victim to investigate her
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/02/queensland-police-commissioner-tried-to-access-records-of-alleged-domestic-violence-victim-to-investigate-her-ntwnfb
‘Boneyards of communities’ emerging in flooded outback Queensland and more rain on way
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-02/more-rain-on-way-for-flood-ravaged-outback-queensland/105122538
Donald Trump is putting Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton on a unity ticket By Jacob Greber
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-01/donald-trump-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-mortgage-war/105123222
Rupert Murdoch’s $30b property jewel faces rebel rich-lister with a cause
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/murdoch-s-30b-property-jewel-faces-rebel-rich-lister-with-a-cause-20250401-p5lo4o.html
Teslas burn in Rome, Stockholm as protests escalate.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/teslas-burn-in-rome-stockholm-as-protests-escalate-20250401-p5lo37.html
It turns out that teachers – particularly principals – want to leave the education sector. Why? A host of reasons, but here’s the one that stands out – parents. Jenna Price
https://www.smh.com.au/education/detaining-school-parents-is-a-bit-much-but-banning-them-makes-sense-20250331-p5lo18.html
An early prevention model in regional NSW has halved the number of students at risk of homelessness, while also reducing the number who present to crisis services. One of the co-designers of the project attributes its success to its community-focused, evidence-based and flexible approach.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-02/project-highlights-effective-ways-of-ending-youth-homelessness/105040982
Giving up a daily coffee or weekly parma? How the cost-of-living crisis is reshaping our spending habits
https://theconversation.com/giving-up-a-daily-coffee-or-weekly-parma-how-the-cost-of-living-crisis-is-reshaping-our-spending-habits-253424
NBN Co’s wireless upgrade a big boost, but Musk’s Starlink still a challenge By Paul Budde
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/nbn-cos-wireless-upgrade-a-big-boost-but-musks-starlink-still-a-challenge,19571
Environment the big loser in this year’s Federal Election By Sue Arnold
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/environment-the-big-loser-in-this-years-federal-election,19584
‘Signalgate’ was damaging to the Trump administration. It could be deadly for Yemeni civilians
https://theconversation.com/signalgate-was-damaging-to-the-trump-administration-it-could-be-deadly-for-yemeni-civilians-253524
Far-right Israel’s fascist ties. By Bilal Cleland
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/far-right-israels-fascist-ties,19565
Reducing the complexities of international politics to the idiosyncratic personalities of world leaders suggests the Western media believes concision is an antidote to the short attention spans of readers, viewers and listeners. They may be right about this._ By Scott Burchill
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/04/the-personification-of-politics/
Gareth Evans Pursuing Australia’s national interests in a ‘Might is Right’ world. Less America. More Self-Reliance. More Asia. More Global Engagement.
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/04/pursuing-australias-national-interests-in-a-might-is-right-world/
EU readies counterstrike on Big Tech and US banks over Trump’s mega tariffs
Brussels sees America’s transatlantic trade surplus in services as its Achilles’ heel.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-tariffs-counter-strike-big-tech-us-banks-donald-trump/
‘In the long run, we’re all dead’: Trump allies struggle with trade uncertainty
Many of the president’s allies and critics are united by a fear the new levies will plunge weary consumers into a new wellspring of economic uncertainty.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/01/liberation-day-tariffs-economy-trump-00264079
D-Day for Musk: Democrats in Special Elections Target Trump’s DOGE Chief
Special Elections Reveal Trump’s Weak Spot: Elon Musk
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/01/special-elections-elon-musk-trump-weakness-00262007
Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, the Kremlin, U.S. President Donald Trump and tech billionaire Elon Musk have all weighed in — the latter going as far as describing the Marine Le Pen verdict as an act of the “radical left.” But these talking points misrepresent what happened in a Parisian courthouse over the course of the grueling, months-long trial that ended with Le Pen’s conviction on Monday.
https://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-guilty-verdict-national-rally-viktor-orban-giorgia-meloni-kremlin-donald-trump-elon-musk-reactions/
Le Pen could still become French president after appeal slated for 2026. The shock decision comes after the far-right icon’s embezzlement conviction appeared to stop her running in 2027.
https://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-rule-appeal-summer-president-election/
Finland will exit global land mine treaty as Russia fears grow. President Alexander Stubb also announces major ramp up of defense spending to 3 percent of GDP.
https://www.politico.eu/article/finland-will-exit-landmine-treaty-spend-3-percent-of-gdp-on-defense/
Bosnian Serb leader flees to Moscow as authorities step up pursuit. Bosnia’s most wanted man turns up in Russia after Sarajevo requested Interpol issue a red notice for his international arrest.
https://www.politico.eu/article/milorad-dodik-bosnian-serb-leader-flees-to-moscow-amid-looming-arrest-warrant/
Speaker of Ireland’s parliament survives unprecedented confidence vote. Prime Minister Micheál Martin pleads with opposition to let Dáil Éireann do its job as “enormous threats” from U.S. tariffs loom.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ireland-parliament-confidence-vote-woman-ceann-comhairle/
The Starmer and Reeves double act is about to be tested. A strong, if shallow, partnership at the top has defined Labour in office. Can it hold when the going gets tough?
https://www.politico.eu/article/keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-top-finance-manager-labour-uk-politics-welfare/
Cartoon Time!
Alan Moir
Cathy Wilcox
Matt Golding
Simon Letch
Dionne Gain
Fiona Katauskas Are our politicians on the right track?
Rebecca Hendin on the tussle of wills between Trump and Putin
Pete Songi on Donald Trump’s ‘liberation day’
Chris Riddell on King Trump: all that he touches turns to…
From the Internet
Enjoy!
That august publication of the Tories, The Age, still smarting from its need to terminate the obnoxious Costello as Chair following the filming of an incident with a journalist who finished up on the floor, confirms the Tories are in trouble in Victoria with a full frontal attack on Labor (and, of course, the first stage of the orbital rail project where works continue at pace)
Included is a headline by a former Howard staffer attacking the Malcolm’s – both Fraser and Turnbull for their attacks on Howard and now Dutton
The article seeks to demean both Fraser and Turnbull as inconsequential bad losers and venting against the Liberal Party
And of course, that the female Premier of Victoria is “on the nose” as, they would have it, Andrews was also noting Andrews electoral success with landslide election results
This is the same publication having a “hung” Victorian parliament after the last State election and Andrews losing his seat according to their polling ((influencing)
Then there is the support for Dutton and his continuing attacks on law and order in Victoria (so we are afraid to go out at night) and the orbital rail link – the pollster they deploy giving opinion on these matters and support to Dutton (and by extension whoever the State Liberal leader is now)
9 Entertainent is a Phoenix company, arising from the ashes of 2 failed companies and itself heading to financial failure reliant on a property publication for profit
*Fake News Alert*
Victoria acting VicPol Commissioner has not quit, as the Murdoch tabloid screams.
He’s just not applying for the permanent 5yr role.
Albo leaning in to appearing with the ‘unpopular’ Victorian Premier, despite some punditry..
Albanese is due to hold a media event with the Victorian Labor Premier Jacinta Allan later today. New polling in this masthead published today shows state Labor’s primary vote at 24 per cent, a very low number that is dragging down support for Albanese. Allan will likely face tough questioning about her new police chief, who is only weeks into the job, resigning abruptly as she grapples with a youth crime problem.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-election-2025-live-updates-chalmers-accuses-dogey-dutton-of-copying-trump-10-per-cent-tariff-warning-issued-to-australian-agricultural-businesses-20250401-p5loam.html
#weatheronPB
Low grey clouds lead me,
to somber expectations,
and another sigh.
DPReesays:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 8:29 am
Nadia, in your mind, you may think you are providing great insights. To me, your loud voice is at the expense of others. Firstly suggesting we move on from Bluey. Now critiquing others well informed views, especially of Labor numbers in Victoria. My critique of you – be more humble and kind of opinions different to yours.
_____________________
“Now critiquing others well informed views”
You are not talking about Scott are you ?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/apr/02/australia-election-2025-campaign-live-labor-coalition-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-cost-of-living-wages-emissions-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-67ec55a38f087bcb8730a7d0#block-67ec55a38f087bcb8730a7d0
“The Greens are launching their Green Australia policy today, and will be joined by their former leader Bob Brown.
The minor party is pushing for 1% of the budget to be spent on nature “
Re the ‘Pub Test’ of likeability
Reflecting the growing proportion of voters who do not prefer the political duopoly…
“To be clear, on all these measures more than a third of respondents see no difference between the two (we have removed these from the table to capture the points of contrast).”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2025/apr/01/from-babysitting-to-keeping-a-secret-the-pm-is-preferred-but-it-is-the-literal-pub-test-where-albo-stands-out
The sign on Moir’s bus is wrong, alas.
It should: read; “PUBLIC EDUCATION”.
Donald Dutton won’t touch Private School funding!
Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 8:38 am
*Fake News Alert*
Victoria acting VicPol Commissioner has not quit, as the Murdoch tabloid screams.
He’s just not applying for the permanent 5yr role.
_____________________
I don’t blame him.
The politicisation of Vic Police has got to stop.
Interesting to hear Calwell being mentioned as a target seat for the Greens
Might be a bit of a stretch but dare to dream
Could be become seat number 8 if they keep all 4 they currently have and add MacNamara, Richmond and Wills
Let’s go 10 with Sturt and either Fremantle or Perth
Dutton’s problem isn’t that he misspeaks. The problem is that he is being reported beyond the specific audience to which his words are intended.
Yesterday’s criticism of Victoria wasn’t wrong; the problem was that it was reported.
The media need to get with the program and report more generously; less widely. Each set of words needs to be confined within the specific seat or electorate in which it is delivered.
And another thing: this dredging up of past pronouncements and House votes is not OK. Words (and votes) are meant to live only for the moment and expire swiftly. C’mon!!
Rolling out Bob Brown? Is Bandt that on the nose?
The equivalent of the Libs exhuming John Howard every election.
Cory “Mr Smith” Booker is now 2 hours out from overtaking Racist Cracker Strom Thurmond’s 24 hr & 18 min US Senate speech record.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/apr/01/donald-trump-elon-musk-special-elections-florida-wisconsin-texas-arizona-us-politics-live#top-of-blog
This will bookend the April 5 Take Back America Marches nicely.
In case anyone was wondering, some 63% of Australian federal public servants live outside the ACT. That’s around 100,000 people, their families, etc distributed around the seats under discussion.
Bear in mind Dutton et al will replace most of them with more expensive consultants from KPMC etc. So it’s rather unlikely to save money either.
I don’t know if Labor will roll out Paul Keating? He’ll probably roll himself out though. 😉
nath, dave, Lars, Pegasus and others
If a comment by you is not addressed to me and just an opinion not offending anyone and I say ‘needs to cease’ to post that, how do you respond?
DPReesays:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 8:29 am
Nadia, in your mind, you may think you are providing great insights. To me, your loud voice is at the expense of others. Firstly suggesting we move on from Bluey. Now critiquing others well informed views, especially of Labor numbers in Victoria. My critique of you – be more humble and kind of opinions different to yours.
+1
And stop playing the martyr because your comments are questioned.
Why the Greens, independents and other minor parties are needed in our parliaments.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/apr/02/australia-election-2025-campaign-live-labor-coalition-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-cost-of-living-wages-emissions-ntwnfb#top-of-blog
“Victoria’s upper house sat until almost 4am this morning to pass anti-vilification legislation, with new safeguards added to the bill to secure the support of the Greens.
The justice legislation amendment (anti-vilification and social cohesion) bill will expand Victoria’s existing legal protections against vilification, which currently only cover race and religion, to cover disability, gender identity, sex and sexual orientation.
It will also make serious vilification – such as incitement of hatred or physical threats – offences punishable by up to five years’ jail.
Under the amendments secured by the Greens, police and the courts will have to consider the social, historical, and cultural context when making decisions about vilification in both civil and criminal cases.
The bill will also retain third-party oversight in criminal prosecutions by limiting police power by requiring them to obtain consent from the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) before proceeding with charges.
The Greens also successfully negotiated to add the phrase “address systemic injustice and structural oppression” to the purpose of the bill and to narrow the expanded religious exception to “prevent the vilification of LGBTQIA+ and other marginalised groups under the guise of religion”.
The bill will return to the lower house later today to pass the changes.
Greens MP Gabrielle de Vietri said:
We’ve ensured this bill protects people against hate speech with safeguards in place to prevent these laws from being misused, especially against marginalised and overpoliced communities.”
”
From HH international roundup
Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Falls To New Low: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-approval-rating-falls-new-low-2053602
”
From the article
“The AP-NORC survey, conducted between March 20-24, shows that 56 percent of respondents disapproved of Trump’s job as president, while 42 percent approved.”
So 42% Americans are bat-shit-crazy?
The Murdoch. Press can’t help itself with their crapola.
Just look at what Murdoch have done in the USA and Uk.
———
Victoria’s Acting Chief Commissioner Rick Nugent has confirmed he will not apply for the ongoing position.
“I just don’t know that I have it in me to do the five years,” he said while speaking to ABC Radio Melbourne on Wednesday morning.
“It just dawned on me, the realisation that this is a demanding job for a long period, I just decided not to [apply].
“Life is short and there are other passions and opportunities that I wish to pursue.”
Submissions for the ongoing position close on Friday.
Commissioner Nugent denied quitting the top job following reports in the Herald Sun on Wednesday morning.
It is kinda funny that Nadia singled out bluey as something that needed to go.
Bluey has been the highlight of the election campaigns. Sheesh
From HH international roundup
”
No free trade with US without free speech, Starmer warned: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/03/31/free-speech-row-threatens-starmers-us-trade-deal/
”
Wow!
So 42% Americans are bat-shit-crazy?
Just brainwashed by the mass hypnosis of Trump and the RW Authoritarian media ecosystem.
It’s hilarious. The Whitehouse press secretary has said it is time to move on from signal gate. No interest whatsoever in investigating this serious breach in security.
I dare say the “deep state” they rant about every day has other plans. Lol
C@t
Yep. It has been easy to brainwash these people into believing that the game is rigged against them, not by big business. But migrant poor folk.
The stupidity burns.
But I guess on reflection, they like hating on others that they deem they are superior to