Following on from the Sunday night polling avalanche, the two pollsters that usually report at this time: the weekly Roy Morgan and the fortnightly Essential Research. Courtesy of The Guardian, Essential Research has Labor up a point to 30%, the Coalition down one to 34% and the Greens steady on 12%, with undecided at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor poking its nose in front, up one to 48% with the Coalition steady at 47% and the remainder undecided, without fundamentally upsetting a fine balance that has prevailed in this series for nearly a year.
A semi-regular question on leadership attributes records improvements for Anthony Albanese since February, sustantially so for “out of touch with ordinary people” (down six to 57%), and marginally for decisiveness (up one to 44%) and trustworthiness (up two to 44%). Peter Dutton is up two on out-of-touch to 57%, down three on decisive to 53%, and down one on trustworthy to 41%. In defiance of broadly improving signs for the government, the regular question on national mood finds only 32% rating the country as headed in the right direction, down three on a fortnight ago, with the contrary view up four to 52%. The sample for the poll was 1100 – field work dates and other results will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.
Roy Morgan’s weekly federal poll series maintains its recent run of strong results for Labor, who lead 53-47 on the headline respondent-allocated two-party measure and 53.5-46.5 based on 2022 election preference flows. The primary votes are Labor 32% (down half), Coalition 35% (down half), Greens 13% (up half) and One Nation 5.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1377.
Nine Newspapers also has further results from yesterday’s Resolve Strategic poll showing 60% now believe Donald Trump’s election win has been bad for Australia, up from 40% immediately after his election in November, with only 15% rating it good, down from 29%. Numerous further questions point to a weakening of confidence in the alliance: 34% agreed that Australia should pause or withdraw from the nuclear submarines deal, with 25% disagreeing; 42% agreed Australia should rethink plans to host US nuclear submarines at Australian basis, with 24% disagreeing; 50% said Australia should avoid taking sides in a conflict between the US and China, with 18% disagreeing; 46% felt Australia should retaliate against US tariffs, with 18% disagreeing. Only 35% were clear that China (on 31%) and Russia (on 4%) posed the greater threat to Australia: 17% rated the United States the bigger threat, and 38% opted for “all equally”.
Wat Tyler @ #194 Tuesday, April 1st, 2025 – 1:56 pm
The One Nation vote is relatively strong in Spence as well, about 11% in 2022. That could be significant this time around when it comes to preferences.
Entropy
Re your post at 1.27 pm
The basic rules and structure of the concept of ‘woke’, as the term is used these days, are very easy to understand. So deciding what is and what is not woke isn’t the problem. It’s when you try to put it all into practice in the real world that the shortcomings of the theory start to become evident and very controversial.
Bystander wrote, “they would also understand that tragedies can and do happen in warfare.”
That’s what the nazis said too!
If this tweet is correct, China might be about to start a takeover attempt of Taiwan. Many naval strategists have argued that a blockade, rather than invasion, is the easiest way for China to capture Taiwan. Taiwan only grows 2/3 of the food it needs and imports the rest.
“Taiwan Security Monitor@TaiwanMonitor
Spokesperson for the East China Sea Branch of the Chinese Coast Guard has announced the CCG is conducting “law enforcement patrols” surrounding Taiwan including “pre-inspection, arrest, interception and seizure, and other subject exercises.”
Confirmed in Taiwanese media
https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202504010004
Labor and Liberal are both trying hard to avoid talking about defense policy, but they might have to talk about it soon.
Banning a customer for that joke looks extreme so there might be more to the story.
Bystandersays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 2:08 pm
Entropy
Re your post at 1.27 pm
The basic rules and structure of the concept of ‘woke’, as the term is used these days, are very easy to understand. So deciding what is and what is not woke isn’t the problem. It’s when you try to put it all into practice in the real world that the shortcomings of the theory start to become evident and very controversial.
========================================================
There seems to be quite a variable definition of what it means here, though. For instance, PP and Scromoll seem to use it to mean anything they don’t like. I suspect Dutton will use a similar interpretation .
The SRL is a staged project with currently the first stage under construction – and it embraces the Airport Rail Link
In regards the cheapest time being now (so costs will only increase into the future) the ancillary is the deployment of resources if you run the East and West constructions together
Do we have the resources including human resource (noting the racist driven immigration policy of Nuckleer Pete)?
And how is Snowy River project progressing?
There is never any reporting of this by media
Why not?
In regards works in the West of Melbourne from my infrequent travels thru there and the most recent the road works off the West Gate are extensive
And the “crowd” size at Nuckleer Pete’s visit to Melbourne is telling
Stage managed for selected media outlets hence no one there unless invited
Kirsdarke @ #199 Tuesday, April 1st, 2025 – 1:35 pm
Yep. And, even if it’s not enough to swing Spence, there are plenty of electorates across Australia that are similar to Spence that are closer. Or, if a future redistribution causes Spence to take on a lot of Liberal land (like it did previously when called Wakefield), this could cause some grief down the line. Not to mention how it can potentially affect upper house votes. This is something that should be watched carefully.
As I’ve said before, a lot of economically disadvantaged people who’ve felt “left behind” by Labor aren’t necessarily going to hold their noses and remain Labor, or move to the Greens or some other left wing independents. A lot will actually be drawn to parties like PHON or even the Coalition if their message sounds populist enough (regardless of whether or not it’s the chickens voting for the foxes to decide what’s for dinner.)
Shakes head @ Nic Boele
” I’m focused on making sure that our kids can read and write, not this extreme agenda of Peter Dutton.
When Peter Dutton started saying today that he’s going to cut funding to health and education, I thought it was an April fool’s, but he said it last night as well. And that should put the fear of God into any Australian that cares about our kids.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/apr/01/australia-election-2025-live-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-cost-of-living-housing-interest-rates-rba-ntwnfb#top-of-blog
An own goal by any measure by our Temu Trump. The full effects of which may get worse over the course of the campaign. 🙂
imaccasays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 2:22 pm
” I’m focused on making sure that our kids can read and write, not this extreme agenda of Peter Dutton.
When Peter Dutton started saying today that he’s going to cut funding to health and education, I thought it was an April fool’s, but he said it last night as well.
==========================================================
So his matching of Labor’s $8.5 billion Medicare pledge is just smoke and mirrors. He is going to gut health, not increase its funding as most of us suspected. What was the point of matching Labor’s pledge when he is just going to siphon it off anyway? Has there ever been an Australian politician as dishonest as Dutton? Yes, I know Trump is, but he isn’t Australian, fortunately .
Clem
With all due respect, that’s just rubbish. The Nazis would never have referred to what they did to the Jews as a tragedy. It was a national policy to wipe out every last one of them right across Europe. Now HAMAS has a similar policy to wipe out every last one of them from Israel. Join the dots.
Good News, Bad News for Mark Carney on Monday.
The Liberals shot up to an 8 point (46-38, 44-36) lead in the two latest polls.
But Carney was forced to get one of his Toronto suburban candidates who referred to his opponent being on a Hong Kong police “bounty” list to apologize. He said he would keep him on.
Perhaps a Canadian psephologist can let us know how this issue will play out among Chinese-Canadian voters.
And in regard defence, look at our coast line as an Island Nation
So how the hell with our 28 million population defend this coast line?
To me all the carry on about defence is a nonsense for so many reasons it does not matter
Our defence is our relationships with our neighbours
So diplomatic
Our history post WW2 is that Australia lose every conflict they engage in
“I dare say all those who are not antisemitic would have a great deal of sympathy for the state of Israel.”
I’m not anti-semetic and my “sympathies” for the state of Israel are wearing very thin because of their actions in Gaza and the West Bank.
“They would also understand that tragedies can and do happen in warfare.”
So do atrocities. That doesn’t make them acceptable.
PP at 1.22pm.
There are NO undersea cables to the south of Australia
“Clem
With all due respect, that’s just rubbish. The Nazis would never have referred to what they did to the Jews as a tragedy. It was a national policy to wipe out every last one of them right across Europe. Now HAMAS has a similar policy to wipe out every last one of them from Israel. Join the dots.”
Of course they would, as a cover.
And if that is Hamas policy, then the IDF is breating them at it hands down!
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.10 per cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances at 4 per cent.
https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2025/mr-25-10.html
With 10 Grandchildren all at school, what agenda Nuckleer Pete?
What is being taught that should not be taught?
Noting that we have Pentecostal schools teaching that God makes babies – these schools in outlying suburbs where there is isolation including from families living closer to the City
So are all these signs saying God makes babies (and one of our granddaughters plays basketball at the school/church premises) and God makes the sun come up the “woke” agendas Nuckleer Pete refers to?
Call him out – except he only engages with fellow Tories and selected media (refer the photo of it in Melbourne)
Granny Annysays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 2:35 pm
PP at 1.22pm.
There are NO undersea cables to the south of Australia
===============================================
Poor old Antarctica; the LNP gave them Fraudband too. Only cable to the node, and the node was in Hobart.
Adrian Beaumont post on Canada and the US:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/04/01/canadian-election-and-us-special-elections/
Heres Trump interview today excellent!
I really doubt that. Who gives a f*ck what Trump thinks of Hamas.
I’d like to hear more from Trump about the US stock market crash, the imminent US recession, and upcoming US stagflation. Does he have an opinion on these?
No corflutes in Boothby yet. I assume the SA ban on them must include federal and state elections.
Chinese geostrategic policy making is an uncoordinated mess at the moment – while the trade team has a win getting Japan and Korea in the same room, the defence side is playing silly buggers in the indo-pacific and Taiwan.
If there was ever a time for China to play the “we are not the aggressor like the US card” it would be now. I mean FFS every showboating tour around Australia is just soft pushing votes to the pro-America/AUKUS party.
Chinese interdepartmental coordination must be a nightmare.
Boele sounds full of life and positive energy.
Just what the parliament needs.
Diogenes @ #222 Tuesday, April 1st, 2025 – 2:31 pm
Yeah, I haven’t seen any up my way. The writs have been issued so that’s not a reason. Must be the SA law. Interesting. I thought it was federal law that covers the rules around federal elections.
(Of course, I’m not complaining if true. They’re ugly, obnoxious things.)
SRL east is as much about the associated new housing, along with the rail link up. Most media don’t mention that part. Hopeless.
It is a great shame that the CFMEU was left to rort Vic’s Big Build across the state. That’s the big failing of an otherwise great Premiership of Daniel Andrews.
Whatever became of the 3 women who were recorded vandalizing a Teal corflute and laughing about it. Were they charged and publicly identified?
“Amy Remeikis on what the election should be about”
https://7ampodcast.com.au/episodes/amy-remeikis-on-what-the-election-should-be-about
I like albo but by listening to Chalmers my god if he was PM the race wouldn’t be close
Dutton plans to withhold money from the federal Education Department if schools don’t teach the essentials – read between the lines. He seems not to have a problem identifying with Trump’s policies. While his base will be happy, it’s others who need to be convinced.
It seems it now, DOGE-ee Dutton the Temu Trump. 🙂
Take a listen this is a really interesting 8min listen on youth crime…
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/qld/105118762
Isn’t it funny how Pied Piper writes bullshit about the ALP supporting foreigners like China and Hamas while boosting a foreign imbecile like Donald Trump.
How the heck does anyone finish school and cannot read.
MB
Ask a Liberal. Don’t write to them.
Mexicanbeermer:
It’s actually very very easy to finish school and still not be able to read or do basic sums. But I will not explain the rationale because I will be accused of racism and even slapped with a ban!
Yeah Albo and Dutton have us clearly going down the wrong path throwing all our chips in with MAGA.
Sam Roggaveen with a summary of his remarks to the Security Forum Turnbull organised in Canberra yesterday. He also lists many reasons why AUKUS (and ANZUS) are dead and AUstralia needs to have an independent defense.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/yes-australia-can-defend-itself-independently
To quote the negative:
“The trouble for alliance supporters is that a longer historical gaze brings no more comfort, because we can see a long succession of unmet American promises to prioritise Asia. In the face of China’s dramatic military modernisation, the United States has done little. US forces deployed to Asia today are of roughly the same size as in 1991.”
And the positive:
” So, when I hear that Australia cannot defend itself without America, I detect not an argument about military capability or force structure, but a national timidity that is entirely at odds with what we have achieved as a nation.
We’ve always done the big things our own way: the Australian ballot, compulsory voting, federalism, superannuation, health, education, immigration, firearms. So why not defence? There’s no reason for Australia to lack self-confidence.”
The only way to get out of AUKUS is by force from community independents and Greens having balance of power in both houses. It’s undeniable.
latest polling out of NSW for Federal Vote intention.
Pollster: Demos AU
Sample: 1013
Poll Period: 24-26 March
(Comparison figures with the Last Fed election in NSW)
* ALP 30% (down 3.4)
* LNP 38% (up 1.5)
* GRN 12% (up 2)
* PHON 9% (up a “staggering” 4.1)
* Others/indies 11% (down 4.2)
PPM Albanese 39, Dutton 38
Their 2PP 51 LNP
Link: https://demosau.com/news/nsw-poll-march-2025/
ScromoIIsays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 3:25 pm
Mexicanbeermer:
It’s actually very very easy to finish school and still not be able to read or do basic sums. But I will not explain the rationale because I will be accused of racism and even slapped with a ban!
==================================================
Never stopped you before.
In Sydney, you can arrive at Airport terminal 1, get on the one train for $5, and be on one of the world’s best beaches in under an hour (Bondi, Bronte, Tamarama, Coogee-take your pick).
There, fixed it for you. 🙂
‘Peter C says:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 2:32 pm
And in regard defence, look at our coast line as an Island Nation
So how the hell with our 28 million population defend this coast line?
…’
==============
Why would we be silly enough to try to defend the coast line?
Gentleman Jim has taken off the gloves:
“Peter Dutton has still not come clean on his $600 billion in cuts that he needs in order to build these nuclear reactors which will push up electricity prices. Now, today, he threatened cuts to school funding which was right from the DOGE playbook.
And we also know that he wants to Americanise Medicare as well, because when he was the health minister, he tried to gut and cut Medicare.
This is DOGEy Dutton, taking his cues and policies straight from the US in a way that will make Australians worse off.”
(SMH)
After more than 3 weeks, there’s still 14 seats in WA still awaiting declaration. Most significant of these would be Bibra Lake, Maylands and Perth to see if the Greens reach second place over the Liberals in the preference distribution.
How freakin’ formulaic and unimaginative is this guy?
Peter Dutton’s campaign has arrived in Berwick, in the Labor-held Melbourne electorate of Bruce, for a community roundtable on crime.
(SMH)
Berwick is the liberal end of Bruce.
Mavis says:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 3:15 pm
Dutton plans to withhold money from the federal Education Department if schools don’t teach the essentials – read between the lines. He seems not to have a problem identifying with Trump’s policies. While his base will be happy, it’s others who need to be convinced.
———————————
Most of the lib/nats supporters can see why the federal lib/nats are going backwards
nadia88:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 3:36 pm
I hope the shit that was piled on you last night hasn’t dampened your enthusiasm.
Keep up your good work.