Following on from the Sunday night polling avalanche, the two pollsters that usually report at this time: the weekly Roy Morgan and the fortnightly Essential Research. Courtesy of The Guardian, Essential Research has Labor up a point to 30%, the Coalition down one to 34% and the Greens steady on 12%, with undecided at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor poking its nose in front, up one to 48% with the Coalition steady at 47% and the remainder undecided, without fundamentally upsetting a fine balance that has prevailed in this series for nearly a year.
A semi-regular question on leadership attributes records improvements for Anthony Albanese since February, sustantially so for “out of touch with ordinary people” (down six to 57%), and marginally for decisiveness (up one to 44%) and trustworthiness (up two to 44%). Peter Dutton is up two on out-of-touch to 57%, down three on decisive to 53%, and down one on trustworthy to 41%. In defiance of broadly improving signs for the government, the regular question on national mood finds only 32% rating the country as headed in the right direction, down three on a fortnight ago, with the contrary view up four to 52%. The sample for the poll was 1100 – field work dates and other results will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.
Roy Morgan’s weekly federal poll series maintains its recent run of strong results for Labor, who lead 53-47 on the headline respondent-allocated two-party measure and 53.5-46.5 based on 2022 election preference flows. The primary votes are Labor 32% (down half), Coalition 35% (down half), Greens 13% (up half) and One Nation 5.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1377.
Nine Newspapers also has further results from yesterday’s Resolve Strategic poll showing 60% now believe Donald Trump’s election win has been bad for Australia, up from 40% immediately after his election in November, with only 15% rating it good, down from 29%. Numerous further questions point to a weakening of confidence in the alliance: 34% agreed that Australia should pause or withdraw from the nuclear submarines deal, with 25% disagreeing; 42% agreed Australia should rethink plans to host US nuclear submarines at Australian basis, with 24% disagreeing; 50% said Australia should avoid taking sides in a conflict between the US and China, with 18% disagreeing; 46% felt Australia should retaliate against US tariffs, with 18% disagreeing. Only 35% were clear that China (on 31%) and Russia (on 4%) posed the greater threat to Australia: 17% rated the United States the bigger threat, and 38% opted for “all equally”.
As for the SRL both the Hun and …the age pushing the line …….its a great white elephant.
My brother is a died in the wool LNP voter where he knows the price of everything and the cost of nothing
It will certainly resonate with a lot of voters
To him labor nothing but a …WOFTAM…..Xmas gatherings are hoot wife tells no politics talk please ….he was the other day …..and he started with the trash talk …wife looked at me…….i got up and left the room.
Cost of living terrible under labor highest spending government federally for decades 13 interest rate rises and rents through the roof because they prefer to house students from overseas instead of Aussies.
Kennett saved Victoria from the deranged big debt labor government and selling electricity was fantastic .In WA who stupidly kept it in public hands billions have been lost in the last few years and the taxpayer is paying that.
Energy transition in Vic etc is being payed for by private companies.
Will Albo be seen anywhere near the failed leftie Vic premier how many sexist quotas did that dud get to become premier ?
Mostly Interested says:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 11:55 am
For people outside of Melbourne, can someone unpack for me, would the cancelling of the Suburban Rail Loop be a vote winner or loser?
The problem is, it is a long term project, it will restructure the city and it is needed. Melbourne has been growing. At the moment there is no big supporters as most travel to the CBD.
Against that there is a relentless campaign over building stuff costing money.
The campaign getting legs is the risk. The Age and the Sun are relentless.
Lars,
Pearl clutching becomes you.
My comment was in the vein of ‘all publicity is good publicity’. An observation, not a joke.
Anyway, aren’t you meant to be the Teal champion?
TK – with Sharkie – publicise the 2022 2PP – 51.7 to Labor. And you wouldn’t think the Adelaide Hills Libs are Dutton types. Talking about Mayo state seats being Liberal is a bit of a dodge.
Sharkie does have a background as former Liberal staffers and Xenophon who was centre but probably Liberal history as well.
AS an example of the nonsense, we have this sample:
pied piper says:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 12:05 pm
Cost of living terrible under labor highest spending government federally for decades 13 interest rate rises and rents through the roof because they prefer to house students from overseas instead of Aussies.
Labor ran two surpluses, brought the government spending as a portion of GDP down, had to deal with an inflation rate above 6% and got it back under 2.5% without causing a recession. In response we got rubbish like the above from Liberal posters.
The party that wasted a billion dollars on robo debt and untold amount on consultants because they fired the competent public servants.
Unconscious bias is a serious issue sprocket – not something to be trivialised.
The comments by the Indies in the Guardian article today don’t read well for Dutton.
Even Dai Le making Labor type noises – but tha probably clever politics trying to hold on to Labor defectors from 2022.
Spence
The teals won Liberal seats, not Labor seats. They are probable trying to hold onto Liberal defectors, and the Liberals are still to stupid to work out why they defected.
Yeah unfortunately, politically the SRL seems to be more of a negative for Labor right now because of the relentless campaign against it and broadly a lack of understanding about just how needed it will be and how much it will positively transform the city. Partly because absolutely no news media has been reporting it in a positive light.
However, I think the fact that it will run through Chisholm – and that Chisholm has a significant Asian population that is far more likely to support a strategy of densification around public transport – means the Coalition’s pledge to scrap it / remove funding could potentially be a vote loser for them in some key seats (Chisholm, Deakin, Menzies).
I think the policy to scrap it and redirect the funding could be a vote winner however in seats like McEwen and Hawke who see SRL East as an example of the north/west being neglected.
This is where I think if Labor had not scheduled SRL West to be last, and instead run it in parallel with SRL East because it would actually be the cheapest and fastest leg to build and therefore provide a quick win where public transport is most desperately needed, it would probably have more support.
One more note on that topic, I think it’s interesting that the Coalition are framing “Airport Rail” and SRL as competing prioritities, but the Airport Rail is actually a leg of the SRL. It is part of the original SRL West that has been separated out into its own leg, but will form part of the completed loop.
Spence, I’ve written to Sharkie on these points (stressing the ALP got that 2PP with barely a whimper of a campaign in the area). I’ve explained that, imo, this LNP is a v different party to the old Liberal Party (and used my credentials of voting for Hewson to show I’m not an ALP hack).
there are Dutton type conservatives in Mayo. There are also Greens luvvies. Trumpets…. Mixed bag. It is a balance for an independent but she is falling into old habits. I’ve stressed her value (and popularity) is to make decisions on merits rather than old allegiances.
Sharkie may be aware of a local swing away from the ALP.
Duton doesnt understand cutting the fuel excise still adds to cost of living expense , it cost people money for the fuel they need.
Duttons fuel excise cut is like a discount/promotion price at a retailer.
The customer has to buy the product
Outsider. I’m on the outer north of metro Adelaide in Spence. Different world to leafy Sturt. Socrates is on the ground there somewhere.
If it were a state poll then Labor would be ahead in Sturt. Hence the prominence of Malinauskus.
Marine Le Pen, figurehead of France’s Rassemblement National (RN), one of the most established far-right parties in Europe, has been found guilty of embezzling funds from the European parliament.
During her time as an MEP between 2004 and 2017, Le Pen and her team paid party staff with funds that should have gone to European parliamentary aides. The ruling estimates that a total of €2.9 million (£2.4 million) in European parliament funds were involved in the crimes and that Le Pen personally embezzled €474,000 of that total.
She has been sentenced to four years in prison, two of which would be electronic monitoring. She is also unlikely to see the inside of a cell for the other two years as she is appealing her conviction.
The right wing sure do love a piss take…
With SRL most living out of Melbourne and aged 55-60+ will probably never use it .”..by the time it’s finished..
Some have trouble using / negotiating……southern cross station let alone under ground transfer stations.
So an age demographic of old people will hate it…..stairs escalators lifts…luggage it will be all to much.
Team Katichsays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 12:18 pm
Spence, I’ve written to Sharkie on these points (stressing the ALP got that 2PP with barely a whimper of a campaign in the area). I’ve explained that, imo, this LNP is a v different party to the old Liberal Party (and used my credentials of voting for Hewson to show I’m not an ALP hack).
======================================================
Sharkie only said she would speak to Dutton first. She never said she wouldn’t speak to Labor too. I suspect her statement is entirely based on being more worried about losing to the Liberals than the Labor candidate. The Labor candidate would need a huge increase in primary votes to win this seat. Also, even saying she would prefer Dutton first will hardly change any Labor voter preferring her above the Liberals, I suspect. So it really is the safer option for her. Though her actual statement commits to nothing , let’s face it: any independent who talks to both major parties will have to talk to one of them first still.
60% of Australians view the trump presidency as a negative for Australia .
Jesus- one minute you’re running for office the next you’re playing a trumpet on only fans.
Sprocket_says:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 12:07 pm
Lars,
Pearl clutching becomes you.
My comment was in the vein of ‘all publicity is good publicity’. An observation, not a joke.
Anyway, aren’t you meant to be the Teal champion?
_____________________
She is now known as a cougar.
If that’s good publicity then I’ll go he.
Pipe…
Would you care to reconcile “commie” China, Japan and South Korea agreeing to combat the neo-fascist (current) US government?
Context: To this day the Chinese have not forgotten/forgiven the Japanese for their brutality during the 1930s and 1940s while Korea was, to all intents and purposes, a vasal state of Japan in the same period.
Seems to me they know who their enemy is now, and it is not one another.
Could you do this before you start your daily dose of Whacky juice?
Sharkie only said she would speak to Dutton first. She never said she wouldn’t speak to Labor too.
———————————–
Sure, there was nuance to the statement. But once made, for whatever reason, it’s hard to walk back. In a way, she has cleared the path to Dutton, and once cleared it becomes the easiest path to take come post election.
Boele’s comment was gross. Might cost her bigly.
Yes the Boele issue – would you regard it as a joke sprocket if a 50 yr old man had been jocular in a similar fashion with a 19 yr old girl?
________________________________________________
I’d regard it as a joke if it was a 50 yr old man and a 19 yr old guy. Maybe not so funny if it was a 50 yr old woman and a 19 yr old guy.
And therein lies the difference. Your comparison is the sort of stupid crap that Liberals come up with.
Sceptic says Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 12:29 pm
Isn’t that par for the course in Australia? Or did Le Pen and co actually divert money to the party rather than employing the party staff as “parliamentary aides” as is done in Australia?
Spence
The teals won Liberal seats, not Labor seats. They are probable trying to hold onto Liberal defectors, and the Liberals are still to stupid to work out why they defected.
——————————————————–
Well put. I would say it only takes one or two prominent teal or centrist MPs to say out loud that the modern ALP is more like to the traditional Liberal Party than the whatever this LNP mob is. They could also say their support of the ALP will make the next government even more centrist.
They cant say that about the LNP. They cant say and expect that the LNP, with its National Party rump, is open to being more centrist.
“MT at least looked and spoke like a Prime Minister, and if it wasn’t for the creeps in his party like Dutton, may have done a better job.”
Greatest Prime Minister we never had
Amy (I assume) with some annotations to Dutton’s answer to a question on the Chinese ship currently south of Australia: https://live.australiainstitute.org.au/2025/04/australia-institute-live-day-four-of-the-election-campaign-underway/#3d7f9c0f05
Someone washing your hair can be a very erotic act. I’ve had plenty of women wash my hair and it can lead to inappropriate feelings.
It was a stupid thing to say, but I like her more because of it.
I’m sure there’s a lesbian hairdresser scene somewhere on the net if anyone wants to take this further.
“Australian news and politics live: Peter Dutton wages war on woke, vows to stop indoctrination of kids”
West Australian now.
https://thewest.com.au/news/australia/australian-news-and-politics-live-dutton-to-axe-victorian-suburban-rail-loop-to-add-funding-to-airport-rail-c-18223864
Thats it campaign on this stuff!
‘Disgrace’: Dutton slams Albo on national security
Peter Dutton is at his most confident when talking about national security.
He seizes the chance to lay the boot in to the Albanese Government after a question from a journalist on the Chinese spy ship in Australian waters with the ability to scan our undersea cables.
“A first charge of any premise that is to protect and defend our country and Anthony Albanese doesn’t know what to do. One part of the government is saying the Australian Border Force is monitoring what is happening, the other part is saying it is the Australian Defence Force that is monitoring what is happening. The Prime Minister himself doesn’t know what is happening,” he says.
“That is the problem and for a Jetstar or a virgin pilot to have to notify the government of what was happening off our shores is a disgrace and it shows the gap there is in intelligence collection and in exercise of our military forces at the moment. It is unbelievable the Prime Minister can’t explain to the Australian people what is happening here.”
West Australian now.
Our reporter Josh Butler has asked Dutton about his comments on schools, and potentially conditioning funding, that students not be taught a woke agenda, as well as his comments about the department of education have thousands of staff but not running a school.
“We have said we want to take waste out of the federal budget and put back into frontline services.
The second point is, I want to make sure our kids, whether they are school or secondary school or young Australians at universities receiving the education of their parents would expect them to receive and our position will reflect community standards in relation to what is being taught at our schools and universities.
Dutton says he doesn’t support children being “indoctrinated” by the agenda of others and supports them being able to “think freely.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/apr/01/australia-election-2025-live-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-cost-of-living-housing-interest-rates-rba-ntwnfb#top-of-blog
Dutton says this, on the campaign trail, a day or two before Trumps “Liberation Day” ……. basically comments that he is going to try and emulate Trumps agenda on Education and a Federal Education Dept in Australia.
Pity Duttons campaign manager …… they must be having a quiet sob somewhere ……. and if the RBA drops rates today (ok, they wont.. 🙂 ) ……. there is likely to be pure catatonia from the Libs for a couple of days.
For those interested in the changing international landscape, I recommend the latest episode of Emma Shortis’ podcast After America, titled No Joke. Alan Behm delivers his views on Europe, USA, Ukraine, China and where Australia goes from here. Its not all bad news (pretty grim for Ukraine) but does highlight the absurd fiction of USA being our defender has to end. It is a dangerous delusion.
https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/no-joke/
Peter Dutton in ‘Melbourne’ today… what has happened to all the people?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-election-2025-live-updates-albanese-says-dutton-unprepared-for-government-voters-worry-over-trump-effect-20250331-p5lny6.html
I dare say all those who are not antisemitic would have a great deal of sympathy for the state of Israel. They would also understand that tragedies can and do happen in warfare.
imacca,
linking two threads…. Sharkie has a staff member who is on gov council of the local public high school.
pied pipersays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 1:22 pm
“Australian news and politics live: Peter Dutton wages war on woke, vows to stop indoctrination of kids”
=====================================================
Who determines what is woke?
Who determines what can be taught?
Trump Dutton of course.
I agree with Trent’s posts about the SRL today. It’s a disgrace that the Liberals are politicizing it so much.
Are they still truly that salty over Victorian Labor shelving their East-West Link 11 years ago?
Can’t give a straight answer to a simple question..
Dutton has dodged a question on his preference to live in Sydney rather than Canberra.
Asked what he would say to Australians, including people in Melbourne, who believe the view of Sydney should not come into consideration, Dutton shifted to attack Labor.
“Victorians have had a gutful of the Allan government. The extra taxes that Labor applies, the money they spend, they always rack up debt and that’s exactly what’s happening at a federal level,” he said.
SMH blog
I want the LNP to win and they very well might but I am not very excited about a some sort of coalition with some of the TEALS, particularly in a time like this. Unlike many on here I understand the world will not end whoever gets in, Australia will always be at the forefront of countries to live in. Of all the elections to lose it is this one, this has the look of the Gillards years written all over it particularly if Labor are in minority Government.
A member of the U.S. Senate took the floor at 7:00 p.m. on Monday evening — and he doesn’t plan on leaving it any time soon. In a text message to TPM, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) said he was about to begin speaking for as long as he could stand. “I am disrupting business as usual,” Booker told TPM. “I am not allowing us to just carry on with the expected order of the Senate.”
Booker’s decision to break from standard procedure — after an unrelated procedural vote on a Trump nominee — was motivated by the unusual threat to the country President Trump represents. His office provided TPM with an embargoed copy of his opening remarks in which Booker outlined the stakes as he sees them and his reasons for speaking and holding the Senate floor “for as long as I am physically able,” beginning Monday evening. “These are not normal times in our nation. And they should not be treated as such in the United States Senate,” Booker plans to say, according to the prepared remarks the senator’s office shared with TPM. “The threats to the American people and American democracy are grave and urgent and we all must do more to stand against them. Generations from now will look back at this moment and have a single question — where were you?”
In the prepared version of his opening remarks, Booker goes on to point to Trump’s unprecedented wave of firings across the federal government and his attacks on American institutions including the press and major law firms. “I rise tonight because to be silent at this moment of national crisis would be a betrayal, and because at stake in this moment is nothing less than everything that makes us who we are,” Booker said. After delivering those opening remarks, Booker plans to deliver a multi-part presentation on the ways he thinks Trump is harming the country. The senator plans to start with letters from his constituents.
Booker apparently has a lot of material. His office said Booker’s move to commandeer the Senate floor is modeled after a filibuster on gun control Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) held in 2016. Murphy’s filibuster lasted for just shy of 15 hours. Booker stood with Murphy for hours during that filibuster. This time around, Murphy plans to be there supporting Booker.
The current record for the longest speech in the history of the Senate is held by the late segregationist Strom Thurmond of South Carolina who spent 24 hours and 18 minutes filibustering against the Civil Rights Act of 1957. Rules for marathon speeches require members to continuously speak and to remain on the floor, which raises difficult logistical questions, including about bathroom breaks.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/inside-cory-bookers-plan-to-disrupt-business-as-usual-on-the-senate-floor
“Peter Dutton is at his most confident when talking about national security.”
Anyone who imagines for one minute Dutton has anything to offer on national security other than patriotic words and right wing posturing should rewatch this debate at the NPC back in 2022. See how many of the things he said turned out to be true. Not many.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNP-E_XjetY
Dutton’s primary area of knowledge is real estate speculation.
Sprocket
I think the Liberal campaign strategy for their boy is now obvious. Dutton does not handle dealing with crowds of the public well. So the Liberals shield him from them. They don’t even schedule press conferences or questions for him.
They prefer to do stage managed presentations in environments where nobody will ask unscripted questions. Pete has trouble answering that kind of question.
“Dutton has dodged a question on his preference to live in Sydney rather than Canberra.”
Dutton gave his obvious true preference (living in Kirribilli mansion at public expense) a few days ago. Now he realises that was a mistake he avoids saying it. Yet he still can’t bring himself to say he will live in Canberra, because he has no intention of doing so.
The SRL East will eliminate a whole heap of traffic going into Monash & Deakin Universities for starters.
How much more productive will the land around the universities be if it isn’t wasted being occupied by a single vehicle for vast periods of the day…
How much better will the traffic flows be on Springvale Rd, Dandenong Rd, Blackburn Rd and Burwood Hwy as a result of this for a start.
Bystandersays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 1:26 pm
beguiledagainsays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 11:37 am
Israeli troops killed 15 Palestinian medics and buried them in a mass grave, UN says: https://apnews.com/article/gaza-medics-killed-israel-ambulances-f34b6ecc985d9127265a400bd52c72b7
—————————————–
Can there be anyone out there who still has ANY sympathy for the state of Israel?
I dare say all those who are not antisemitic would have a great deal of sympathy for the state of Israel. They would also understand that tragedies can and do happen in warfare.
===================================================
While both sides should be free to express their opinions on this, in Trump’s America, people disappear off the street for expressing one of these opinions.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/28/rumeysa-ozturk-tufts-trump-immigration-gaza
Dutton has expressed a willingness to implement similar one-sided anti-free speech measures here as well . Don’t risk a Trumpian Dutton government of freedom oppression.
“Dutton has dodged a question on his preference to live in Sydney rather than Canberra”
Error of judgement. Australians don’t like errors of judgment from their politicians. Makes them hard to trust.
Hamas is supported by labor and Hamas started the war.
Palestine dumps Hamas or they go backwards.
Heres Trump interview today excellent!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yr5abiOVTkU
Forbes.
Trade wars
‘Not on my watch’: PM says key US trade grievances are not negotiable
US President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House.
The US trade office has renewed a list of complaints with Australia on the eve of Donald Trump’s biggest tariff announcement to date.
The pathetic part of all this that the RW media in this country wanted Trump as president. Pathetic Paul Murray and others going to the US to lick Trumps arse during the campaign with their stupid American cowboy hats on. Now theyre all on a whingefest afterwards wanting Albo to tell Trump to get f…d.
Had to go to Munno Para Shopping Centre earlier (Division of Spence.) Liberal candidate was there being filmed having a chat to some older person in a wheelchair. There were plenty of blue shirts chatting to people too.
Spence is pretty safe Labor, so I am not too concerned about it flipping, although we might see some real swings to the Coalition, if there is a revolt of outer suburban low-information, low-engagement “working class” voters.
pied pipersays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 1:52 pm
Hamas is supported by labor and Hamas started the war.
Palestine dumps Hamas or they go backwards.
Heres Trump interview today excellent!
=============================================
PP supports Trumps ‘Riviera of the Middle East’ Plan. Does Dutton too?
I doubt the boele joke will have much impact.
Peeps have doubts about both of the duopoly parties – as always in an election campaign there r a handful of key comments that crystallise those anxieties in the electorate.
They can be quite trivial or small like the Latham Howard handshake but after the event are seen as revelatory.
I think we are yet to see those moments but they are sure to come.
I still think this campaign was timed to end on apr 12 and the 2 weeks after Easter will be telling.
After the event the winner is always seen to have had the better campaign whatever happened.
Looks like deep Labor minority govt to me as it has now since The Voice.
Speaking of the filibuster, has Cory Booker seen the Frank Capra movie “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington”?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nqr5umxoer4