Following on from the Sunday night polling avalanche, the two pollsters that usually report at this time: the weekly Roy Morgan and the fortnightly Essential Research. Courtesy of The Guardian, Essential Research has Labor up a point to 30%, the Coalition down one to 34% and the Greens steady on 12%, with undecided at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor poking its nose in front, up one to 48% with the Coalition steady at 47% and the remainder undecided, without fundamentally upsetting a fine balance that has prevailed in this series for nearly a year.
A semi-regular question on leadership attributes records improvements for Anthony Albanese since February, sustantially so for “out of touch with ordinary people” (down six to 57%), and marginally for decisiveness (up one to 44%) and trustworthiness (up two to 44%). Peter Dutton is up two on out-of-touch to 57%, down three on decisive to 53%, and down one on trustworthy to 41%. In defiance of broadly improving signs for the government, the regular question on national mood finds only 32% rating the country as headed in the right direction, down three on a fortnight ago, with the contrary view up four to 52%. The sample for the poll was 1100 – field work dates and other results will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.
Roy Morgan’s weekly federal poll series maintains its recent run of strong results for Labor, who lead 53-47 on the headline respondent-allocated two-party measure and 53.5-46.5 based on 2022 election preference flows. The primary votes are Labor 32% (down half), Coalition 35% (down half), Greens 13% (up half) and One Nation 5.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1377.
Nine Newspapers also has further results from yesterday’s Resolve Strategic poll showing 60% now believe Donald Trump’s election win has been bad for Australia, up from 40% immediately after his election in November, with only 15% rating it good, down from 29%. Numerous further questions point to a weakening of confidence in the alliance: 34% agreed that Australia should pause or withdraw from the nuclear submarines deal, with 25% disagreeing; 42% agreed Australia should rethink plans to host US nuclear submarines at Australian basis, with 24% disagreeing; 50% said Australia should avoid taking sides in a conflict between the US and China, with 18% disagreeing; 46% felt Australia should retaliate against US tariffs, with 18% disagreeing. Only 35% were clear that China (on 31%) and Russia (on 4%) posed the greater threat to Australia: 17% rated the United States the bigger threat, and 38% opted for “all equally”.
I say failed, but perhaps I have it wrong. Perhaps the lib’s policy is designed to continue the transfer of wealth from the younger generations to the boomers?
—————————————————
Boerwar has been saying we are just impatient/entitled and all that wealth will come to us via inheritance. owtte.
The oldies around here that got golden handshakes and early retirements from stable life long career jobs are spending like drunken sailors – they’ll use their houses to cover their aged care.
Meanwhile, about 70% of my cohort see retirement as that fleeting moment between working and a hospice.
A railway to Melbourne Airport? Whenever I’ve flown to Melbourne I’ve found it quite convenient to hop on the airport bus – comfortable ride down the M2, under the Cheese Stick and you end up at Southern Cross/Spencer St anyway. Just as quick as a train would be, and less rattly.
The BOM is showing Adelaide having a 60% chance of rain on Sunday and Monday!!
Hold on, April 1!!
—————————
Bo(o)m Tish.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/teal-banned-from-sydney-hairdresser-for-sex-joke/news-story/da706d4e3c9b647dcd1b9c8e85880e7a
Oh no…. she made a joke that was actually pretty funny and shows that young people nowadays have zero sense of humour.
Trent says:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 9:58 am
The aggressive campaign against the Suburban Rail Loop especially by The Age has been something that has really bothered me.
…
The Age opposed the deepening of the port which we needed to accommodate the larger container ships, remember how they had experts claiming we would have flooded beaches. The opposed the level crossing removals, the found a Joe Blog here and a Joe Blog there that opposed shy rail claiming would look in their back yards.
Both campaigns were a disgrace but they amounted to nothing as Labor got increased majorities.
The campaign against the rail loop is more serious, as Labor could lose the next election over it, and that will bring on 4 years of infrastructure stagnation.
It would have been a lot better if the west was done first unfortunately the airport played hard trying to get underground stations, while the government wanted the cheaper option. When the airport folded it was too late, the east had been started.
What the airport failed to realized, once you build a team the cost effective option is to keep them busy so you don’t have to build the team again. Bolte did that when it came to dams, Labor is doing that when it comes to road/rail infrastructure.
Hopefully over 50% of voting Victorian realize the Age and the Liberals are wreckers.
JA
Being on top deck of bus from airport is fun but it is pretty slow in peak hour.
Peeps, maybe I am jaded, but my memory tells me that the LNP do well in campaigns taken as a whole.
I am not confident. Not even quietly. This is going to be close so let’s get tough on the indies. The time for talking is over. Call it extreme if you like, but I propose we hit Sharkie hard and fast with a major — and I mean major — leaflet campaign, and while she is reeling from that, we’d follow up with a car boot sale, some street theatre and possibly even some benefit concerts. OK? Now, if that’s not enough, I’m sorry, it’s time for the T-shirts: “Sharkie, back Albo! Dutton – No Thanks”.
(quoted from Red Dwarf – Rob Grant and Doug Naylor)
Jack Aranda says:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 10:44 am
A railway to Melbourne Airport? Whenever I’ve flown to Melbourne I’ve found it quite convenient to hop on the airport bus – comfortable ride down the M2, under the Cheese Stick and you end up at Southern Cross/Spencer St anyway. Just as quick as a train would be, and less rattly.
It may surprise you but most Melbourne people do not live in the CBD, and they need to get to the airport to go to Sydney.
Wasn’t the point for Dutton’s leadership was he was for real Australians in Queensland not the elites in Sydney and Melbourne.
The Age has been anti Labor for eons
100% agree with those comments frednk.
While the SRL East does make a lot of sense as it is where most of the population, jobs etc are and it will connect a lot of the busiest train lines, politically it does add to the narrative that the west is “neglected” and the east is prioritised once again, and it is a much larger and more expensive leg to build.
The SRL West – which rather than being two legs (SRL West and SRL Airport) could have just been the entire leg from Werribee to the airport – would have been faster and cheaper as it could have been entirely above-ground, it would have addressed the part of Melbourne that has the most patchy public transport and has felt neglected, had opportunities to tie it into electrification of lines like Melton and connect that up to it as well, and all of that would have bought significant political capital to then start SRL East shortly afterwards.
Realistically if done in that sequence, SRL West (including airport) could probably have been done by 2030 while SRL East might only have been pushed back a year or two for a 2036-37 opening. Then by around 2036 you only have one leg remaining – SRL North – which there would be a lot more support to build as it completes the loop by connecting the two.
All of that I think would have a lot more community support than what people currently see as an eastern suburbs project finishing in 2035 with everything else TBA some time after that.
Biggest problem for SRL is can it stay on budget because Victoria can’t keep blowing project budgets.
Andrew_Earlwood
As the Virginia needs 50 feet of water under it, what we have brought is not suitable for coastal defense.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2010/june/right-submarine-lurking-littorals
That was not he case with the french subs that were ordered.
The question is how do you deal with it. Get a fleet of the original subs seems to be a solution. If they can also do blue water work, bonus. Actually getting then built, super bonus.
To be fair I think in percentage terms, most of the budget “blowouts” in the past 5 years or so have been less than average inflation in the private construction industry has been.
Prior to Covid, a lot of the government’s level crossing removals were actually coming in under budget and ahead of schedule.
Projects like Metro Tunnel are still on schedule (it was always going to be a 2025 opening) but are around 20-25% over budget, which in the context of most construction costs being around 40% higher now than 5 years ago, is actually nowhere near the “blowout” that most of the anti-Labor media have been portraying it as.
Trent
If the west had been built first a trip that now takes be two hours ( home to airport) would have been cut to 45 minutes. I suspect now I will be dead before it happens. I was really really disappointed the airport screwed it up so badly.
MB
“ Wasn’t the point for Dutton’s leadership was he was for real Australians in Queensland not the elites in Sydney and Melbourne.”
HasDutton confirmed he will still support Queensland in the State of Origin when he is living in Kirribilli? Someone should ask him. He may not answer. Rarely does.
Start building the East West Link Tollway! NOW!
If I was the dictator the Melbourne-Sydney high speed rail link would be built. That would upset the crowd that want to keep money in the bank instead of building stuff.
frednk, it absolutely makes no sense that without a car, the only way to go from the airport to Werribee is to go all the way into the CBD and then get another train back out to Werribee again.
And even when the Airport Rail is built, that will still almost be the case because there is no rail connection between Sunshine & Werribee; you’d still need 3 trains: Airport to Sunshine, Sunshine to Footscray, Footscray to Werribee.
To me that was such an opportunity for a quick win that was missed. I guarantee if SRL West was under construction, the Werribee byelection wouldn’t have been so close.
@ScromoII – Projects that encourage more cars near the inner city are the very last thing Melbourne needs. We need to be removing traffic, not inducing demand for it.
So unless Albanese does something crazy it appears that Dutton has almost zero chance of majority government.
S Simpson
I agree re Dutton not getting a majority. I think it is rapidly getting worse for him.
We didn’t know how good a campaigner Dutton was. It looks like he is not very good. He is not answering questions about his nuclear and gas policies. He has no other policies to ask about. He is not engaging with people. He is not smiling. He looks like he thinks he is going to lose.
If current trends continue Albo may get a majority.
Trentsays:
To me that was such an opportunity for a quick win that was missed. I guarantee if SRL West was under construction, the Werribee byelection wouldn’t have been so close.
_______________________
More marginal seats in the East and South East.
So unless Albanese does something crazy it appears that Dutton has almost zero chance of majority government.
————————————————————
Small chance.
Maybe slim chance.
Not almost zero chance.
But there seem to be enough indies that may back him if he falls a handful short of majority. He will learn from Abbotts failures wrt 2010 and I imagine his presentable representatives are already schmoozing them.
Socratessays:
We didn’t know how good a campaigner Dutton was. It looks like he is not very good. He is not answering questions about his nuclear and gas policies. He has no other policies to ask about. He is not engaging with people. He is not smiling. He looks like he thinks he is going to lose.
______________________
And to think he rolled MT because he thought he could do a better job. MT at least looked and spoke like a Prime Minister, and if it wasn’t for the creeps in his party like Dutton, may have done a better job.
I am always bemused by question about whether or not the country is heading in the right direction.
Take the current situation as an example. I could say the country is not heading in the right direction if I thought Dutton could possibly become PM. Fot that reason I don’t take a lot of notice of the reported result because some poll responders may think the same way.
what are you talking about. He’s the biggest old campaigner I can think of.
Israeli soldiers executed 15 medics and buried them in a mass grave
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/3/31/2313712/-Israeli-soldiers-executed-15-medics-and-buried-them-in-a-mass-grave?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
AP News:
The dead included eight Red Crescent workers, six members of Gaza’s Civil Defense emergency unit and a staffer from UNRWA, the U.N.’s agency for Palestinians. The International Red Cross/Red Crescent said it was the deadliest attack on its personnel in eight years.
Since the war in Gaza began 18 months ago, Israel has killed more than 100 Civil Defense workers and more than 1,000 health workers, according to the U.N.
dave says:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 11:24 am
what are you talking about. He’s the biggest old campaigner I can think of.
————————
Peter Dutton is not a campaigner
The federal by-elections showed that
Angus Taylor and Sussan Ley are the federal liberal party campaigners
Trent
Two thing will happen before the next state election.
1) The freeway will be finished.
2) The metro tunnel will be finished.
Hopefully that will be enough to cover the campaign against it costing money to build stuff.
Not that we already know
Brace for Impact: Trump is crashing global stock markets. Krugman nails it: MAGA is bad for business
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/3/31/2313717/-Brace-for-Impact-Trump-is-crashing-global-stock-markets-Krugman-nails-it-MAGA-is-bad-for-business?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“Paul Krugman has a short piece at Substack commenting on the delusion in the business community that Republicans are good for business.
One odd feature of U.S. politics is that businesspeople, especially small business owners, always seems to believe that they will do better under Republicans, even though history shows that business does better under Democrats. Small business owners supported Trump in the last election, despite ample evidence that he would be very bad for business.
And now they’re getting a rude awakening.”
I am currently in Brisbane and for some reason my TV won’t access ABC or SBS.
So, I started watching SkyNews. I thought it might be “reasonably okay” at that time of day.
Wrong. It seems to to be a continuous LNP election prop.
Stomach turning.
Incidentally, Andrew Wallace was just complaining about having his posters defaced with Nazi symbols. He ranted that this wasn’t Australian and those people should “leave the country”. He was sooo …. close to saying they should “go back to where they came from” it seemed but swallowed that phrase halfway through.
US Closest ally in North America Canada severed relationship with USA
US Closest allies in Asia Japan and South Korea joined hands with US mortal enemy China to oppose US I Trade
US Closest ally in Europe Germany gave a clarion call to Europe to become independent from USA.
All these things happened in the last 2 months after Trump came to power.
And USA joins hands with Russia to destroy Western alliance.
Mind blowing stuff.
Would you believe that POTUS, VPOTUS and Defence Secretary of USA hate Europe and that is not an exaggeration.
ScromoII says:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 11:07 am
Start building the East West Link Tollway! NOW!
Without the link you go across Bolte bridge and thought the tunnel. Definitely not worth spending state fund on.
Basically all roads into the city are clogged at peak hour. The solution is trains, not more roads.
Is Dutton a good campaigner?
Last time he wanted to be Prime Minister he had Matthias Cormann doing his numbers.
And he smiled a lot. Or tried to.
That didn’t work too well.
Israeli troops killed 15 Palestinian medics and buried them in a mass grave, UN says: https://apnews.com/article/gaza-medics-killed-israel-ambulances-f34b6ecc985d9127265a400bd52c72b7
—————————————–
Can there be anyone out there who still has ANY sympathy for the state of Israel?
Noting that there is still 3,500 years to run on this election campaign, this morning:
– ABC: ‘Not on my watch’: PM won’t weaken laws to escape US tariffs…
– SMH: Dutton threatens school funding over ‘woke agenda’
I mean, seriously, what the fuck is going on in the LNP camp?
The SRL is the most important project in Victoria’s history. It is the only thing that can keep Melbourne liveable.
Re infrastructure in Victoria
Remember that when kennet signed onto to city link putting tolls on that there was a clause inserted that an airport rail link wasn’t allowed to be built till after 2024 ..
So that’s like over 30 yrs from when it started.
Also for the Calder…Monash freeways have been having upgrades for near on 50 yrs from when it was started……at what cost over all those years…so stated we would only a 4 way carriage way for Melbourne years ago……..oh the fore sight.
Rail lines ripped out under the guise of low patronage because someone called Jeff
Let the system run into the ground…only for labor to have to re build it and are still improving it today with millions now using the system every year
Schools closed …land sold off to Spivey mates for a $$$$$
About the only thing I think the lnp have built in 30+ years. Is Jeff’s Shed
So for the SRL i say build the f***ing thing because in 30-40 yrs time it will be humming like all the new road systems now ……….build it and they will come
CNBC: Survey Predicts Zero Growth, Stagflation in First Quarter
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/3/31/2313612/-CNBC-Survey-Predicts-Zero-Growth-Stagflation-in-First-Quarter?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
@Katich – disagree
Yes, it’s not zero chance of Dutton maj, but it would take something pretty huge to bring it about.
Re: indies – Dutton is taking a much more extreme agenda than Abbott did in 2010 and most of the indies likely to be elected are much less aligned to Dutton than Oakeshott, Windsor and Katter were to Abbott.
My own feeling is, if Dutton gets close enough for indies to be in the mix for him, then Labor won’t be in consideration.
I’m still maxing out the Libs currently at 6-9 gains – not delusional hope but where I think the swings will be and how they’ll swing.
frednksays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 11:37 am
ScromoII says:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 11:07 am
Start building the East West Link Tollway! NOW!
Without the link you go across Bolte bridge and thought the tunnel. Definitely not worth spending state fund on.
Basically all roads into the city are clogged at peak hour. The solution is trains, not more roads.
_________________
The solution for these people is more roads, more sprawl and more free parking!
These are the same people who catch a train to the MCG, but were always stuck in a traffic jam at Waverley Park in the 90s and couldn’t work out why it was so…
”
Mrmoneysays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 11:41 am
Re infrastructure in Victoria
Remember that when kennet signed onto to city link putting tolls on that there was a clause inserted that an airport rail link wasn’t allowed to be built till after 2024 ..
So that’s like over 30 yrs from when it started.
Also for the Calder…Monash freeways have been having upgrades for near on 50 yrs from when it was started……at what cost over all those years…so stated we would only a 4 way carriage way for Melbourne years ago……..oh the fore sight.
Rail lines ripped out under the guise of low patronage because someone called Jeff
Let the system run into the ground…only for labor to have to re build it and are still improving it today with millions now using the system every year
Schools closed …land sold off to Spivey mates for a $$$$$
About the only thing I think the lnp have built in 30+ years. Is Jeff’s Shed
So for the SRL i say build the f***ing thing because in 30-40 yrs time it will be humming like all the new road systems now ……….build it and they will come
”
MrMoney
The worst privatisation by Jeff Kennett was privatising Victorian electricity, lock, stock and barrel.
Victoria endured black out after that.
The main criteria for Public infrastructure should not be about whether one gets profit in short run. It is whether it will benefit the public in the long run.
If the current LNP Bozos had their say since federation to 1996, this country would have been run down and would have been Third World country.
Look at USA. Their infrastructure Is falling apart due to neglect since start of this century.
Rossmcg
As a Perth-ite you will know full well that silly old codger (Liberal) Charlie Court, good at digging up and selling our minerals cheap, was almost the death knell of suburban rail in Perth.
He was always praised for his “vision” – joke.
Fair to say, that building suburban rail in Melbourne (huge city now) a lot harder than around Perth.
Even today the local Liberals whinge about “delays” in completing some of the major infrastructure works around Perth – conveniently forgetting the bloody mess the new Children’s hospital was left in at the end the last Liberal government, not to mention the bridge to Optus oval, the failure to go ahead with the rail line here to the airport and Ellenbrook and a promise, at one election, to put light rail through North Perth towards Dianella.
The Liberals are not interested in such projects whether it be Perth, Melbourne or any other city in Oz.
Oh, but an non-costed, non-revenue raising and expensive rail line from Alice Springs to Darwin could was okay as it was Howard’s pet project.
I have no qualms about the north-south line but it was not put up to scrutiny in the way many of the Labor projects are expected to be by the LNP.
Hypocrites on this matter – as is par for the course for the LNP.
East coast infrastructure debates are so bloody strange.
– In Perth, you can arrive at Airport terminal 1, get on the one train for $5, and be on one of the world’s best beaches in under an hour (Cottesloe).
– worlds most popular democratically elected government looking pretty chuffed opening the Ellenbrook line:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/western-australia/ellenbrook-line-opens-16-years-after-it-was-first-promised-20241208-p5kwon.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed
In a classic Streisand Effect – the 2GB and SmearStralian critique of Bradfield Teal candidate Nicollete Boele and has led to:
Top story in the SMH with a smiling Boele
Top story in The Guardian with a smiling Boele
And I’m sure the free to airs will pick it up for their evening news.
Profusely apologetic, ‘a poor tempt at humour’, ‘everyone should be respected in the workplace…’
As the late great showman PT Barnum said “I don’t give a fuck about what they print about me, as long as they spell my name right”.
For people outside of Melbourne, can someone unpack for me, would the cancelling of the Suburban Rail Loop be a vote winner or loser?
Was telling a Perth friend the other day wife and l lived in Perth for over a year and in 1979/80. We had the opportunity to purchase a 4 bedroom house with an i ground swimming pool large garden fully articulated water system plus more in Dianella…..for approx $40k. Dollars
Needless to say we didn’t take up the offer.
Yes the Boele issue – would you regard it as a joke sprocket if a 50 yr old man had been jocular in a similar fashion with a 19 yr old girl?
Or if the offender was say a Liberal mp or candidate.
Personally I see it as funny and I love all humans but we should all check our prejudice before positing.
jt1983
Re: indies – Dutton is taking a much more extreme agenda than Abbott did in 2010 and most of the indies likely to be elected are much less aligned to Dutton than Oakeshott, Windsor and Katter were to Abbott……
My own feeling is, if Dutton gets close enough for indies to be in the mix for him, then Labor won’t be in consideration.
—————————————————-
I agree with the first. Which is where I disagree with the last.
I can see a situation where the ALP have a 2PP lead but the LNP has more seats and where a handful of Indies could guarantee them minority government. But, as per the first, many of those indies are further away from the new LNP than ever before – and they shouldn’t feel obliged to support them. Further, this is a very centrist ALP party. So, imo, even if Dutton is only a handful short of majority, the Indies should still hesitate to support him.
I think the key is if the ALP can make majority with either just the Greens or just Indies. If they need both, then, yeah, that’s a complicated post election dance. It shouldnt be – but it will be.