The ball is now officially rolling on a campaign for a May 3 election, with nominations to be declared in two weeks and a not-quite-two-week early voting period starting on Tuesday, April 22. The latter reflects the interruption of Easter, extending from April 18 to 21, with Anzac Day presenting a further interruption on April 25. Some attractions to make a visit to Poll Bludger part of your daily routine during the campaign period:
• I may regret saying this, but I will at least aspire to publish posts on a daily basis, which will either break news of major polls as soon as they report, or appear overnight to summarise developments of the previous day and the contents of the morning newspapers.
• The Poll Bludger election guide, which I’ve spent much of the past week bringing up to speed, offers an overview page reviewing the electoral terrain and summarising the seats to watch, and detailed interactive guides to all 150 lower house seats and eight state and territory Senate contests,
• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate tells you as much in one glance about the state of federal polling as any sensible person needs to know, and uniquely offers regularly updated trend measures at state level.
• Come the big day and the weeks to follow, the site will offer live results reporting that will wipe the floor with all comers, as an examination of its Western Australian state equivalent should readily attest. Innovative features include a model for calculating win probabilities three ways in complex contests and a new colour-coded results map feature along the lines of that recently added for the Western Australian results.
Show-don’t-tell time:
• A new poll from RedBridge Group, conducted March 13 to 24 from a sample of 2039, has Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, unchanged from the previous poll of March 3 to 11. The primary votes are Labor 34% (up two), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 11% (down one) and others 17% (down two). The Coalition continues to do better among those who profess themselves “solid” in their choice, leading 54-46 among that group. Twenty-nine per cent felt themselves able to name something the Albanese government had done that had made their lives better (electricity rebates being most cited), compared with 54% who couldn’t; 23% reported themselves more or less in favour of tariffs, with 35% more or less opposed; and 68% registered concern about Chinese naval vessels off the coast, with 24% less or not at all concerned. The addition of the voting intention numbers to BludgerTrack has lifted its reading of the Labor primary vote by a grand total of 0.1%, and left all other indicators unchanged.
• Thursday’s Herald Sun had JWS Research polling from the two teal-held seats in Melbourne, conducted “a fortnight ago” from samples of 800 each for Australian Energy Producers. The results have Zoe Daniel trailing Liberal challenger Tim Wilson 54-46 in Goldstein, compared with her 52.9-47.1 win in 2022, with Wilson on 44% of the primary vote (40.4% in 2022) to Daniel’s 24% (34.5%), Labor on 21% (a somewhat counter-intuitive improvement on their 11.0% in 2022) and the Greens on 5% (7.8% in 2022). Monique Ryan is credited with a 51-49 lead over Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer in Kooyong, likewise compared with a 52.9-47.1 win for Ryan in 2022, from primary votes of 40% for Hamer (42.7% for Josh Frydenberg at the 2022 election) and 32% for Ryan (40.3% in 2022), with Labor on 11% (6.9%) and the Greens on 9% (6.3%). Peter Dutton was credited was leads over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister of 51-35 in Goldstein and 40-36 in Kooyong.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Policy Research has results from the second wave of a series tracking changes in attitudes ahead of the election, the first having been conducted from October 14 to 25 from a sample of 3622, this latest having run to January 29 to February 12 with a sample of 3514, 2380 of whom also participated in the first wave. On this occasion there is no straightforward reading of voting intention, but it finds confidence in the federal government fell from 52.9% in its honeymoon period to 33.7% in the latest survey. Satisfaction with democracy “remains relatively stable at 66.2%”, and there has been a general decrease in sentiments associated with populism from August 2018 to January 2025, such as a drop from 67.9% to 61.3% in the share of respondents who felt “government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves”. Nonetheless, “life satisfaction” has been on a downward trend since pre-pandemic, which has resumed since 2023 after recovering from a slump while it was on, and the percentage reporting financial difficulty stabilised in the low thirties in 2024 after a steady ascent from late 2020.
• The Tasmanian government announced earlier this week that the periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the seats of Nelson and Pembroke, would be postponed from their usual date in the first week of May to May 24, to exclude the possibility of a clash with the federal election.
Slashing of public health agencies… Cutting vaccine programs… There’s a couple more radical GOP policies that according to some we shouldn’t care about…
Steve777 @ #549 Saturday, March 29th, 2025 – 9:04 pm
Probably the snarling gimp they keep in the basement at the Daily Telegraph, after it bit the poor intern tasked with asking it questions because it interpreted that as going against MAGA dogma.
T de Merde:
“ Qld was never going to win after Khawaja’s hissy fit and attendance at the F1.
It wasn’t the ideal preparation for a team about to play in a Shield final.
That’s a black mark on Khawaja’s career.”
______
nice line of bullshit.
I noticed that you were agog to report Khawaja’s first innings failure a couple of days ago.
Can we just cut the bullshit for moment?
You have decided to turn Izzy into a Kultcha War ‘hot button’ a week ago. Why? because Dutton’s barge arsed maaate sitting on top of a oyster midden at Queensland cricket decided that it was a good idea to gob off at the blackman on the team whilst being completely ignorant of the relevant facts: in summary, Izzy has been rehabilitating a chronic (as in low grade but persistent) hamstring injury and the Australian Team staff (and it is Cricket Australian, not Queensland that pay Izzy the big dollars) wanted him to be match fit for the world test championship final) and at least the Queensland team physiotherapists (and probably the Qld coaching staff) decided that Izzy should not play the long form of the game on consecutive weekends. Which is what he was available for the shield match that got Queensland into the final and the final itself , BUT not the fixture in between.
What you don’t like is that Izzy called that fat cane toad out, and told some home truths about his dodgy mate P Dutts in the process. in short, the ‘black mark’ on Khawaja’s career was that he is a black man who got uppity.
You, Sir, belong in the bin with Scrott the cooker 2.0.
FUBAR says:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 9:00 pm
…
The Democrats will win the Presidency again sometime. Bit early to make a call on the next election.
Ummm
So why the effort to distance Dutton from Trump?
Heard excepts from JD Vance’s speech at the US Base in Greenland on ABC Newsradio today. It must have been grossly offensive to the USA’s Danish allies and to the Greenlanders. It sounded like something Putin might say.
Joe Dawes very publicly dissed one of his team days before they were rolled for 95 on the opening morning of the final. Absolute clown.
The British and the Danish are incredulous about Trump’s moves in Ukraine and Vance and Trump’s moves in Greenland:
https://youtu.be/iOqNCiRlB0k?si=IIP-rSqLA4NT2LMD
https://youtu.be/0DnSnMrO6To?si=dnO-obE_it_9IBgC
“ Joe Dawes very publicly dissed one of his team days before they were rolled for 95 on the opening morning of the final. Absolute clown.”
____
According to one of our resident reactionaries, the blame lies with that team member … whilst the pretend pretext for the cooker’s fulminations are because Izzy skipped a match (apparently proving that he is of a low character) … in reality, its because Izzy punched back … which is a real character ‘black mark’ … him being of a person of colour and and ingrate and worst of all … uppity.
Apparently Vance’s advance team knocked on doors to see who would be up to meeting the twit in Greenland.
No takers of course.
Yes SA can thank the QCA bozo for upsetting the Qld cricket team. Plus ex Qld bowler Doggett getting 11 wickets probably added to the angst.
Any Bulldogs supporters among the Bludgers?
They have let the Dogs out of the kennel. The Dogs of War are back. On top of the ladder all alone four wins from four they sit.
p.s. I did tip them to finish 3rd. They could be pushing for a grand final berth at the end of the season.
Henry
Dragons 14 Storm 8
Just for you Henry 🙂
I grew up in the Bankstown area. My late father was a Bulldogs fan. I’m not a big NRL fan, or sports fan generally, but I do look in occasionally. Always glad to see the Bulldogs doing well.
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 9:36 pm
The British and the Danish are incredulous about Trump’s moves in Ukraine and Vance and Trump’s moves in Greenland.
——
It’s one thing to abandon Ukraine, but it’s just creepy I think to force yourself on Greenland when they have adamantly said they don’t want to be annexed and almost no one there wants them visiting. This USA administration is completely mad and should go sit in the corner on its own.
Dutton has more or less said to could-be Reactionary voters that they can have their cake and eat it…that they can vote against the Reactionaries if they feel like it, because he will parlay with his competitors/rivals. Effectively, he is encouraging Reactionary voters to choose another outfit to support.
Labor can advantage themselves by declaring they will govern alone. This creates a very distinct contrast: if a voter wants a stable, predictable majority government (and most voters want exactly that), then they should vote Labor.
Dutton has just conceded defeat in the quest for a majority. He just failed electoral campaigning 101.
The number and behaviour of the bulldogs fans will be interesting if they continue to win. They had a lot of issues last time they were a force.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 10:03 pm
The number and behaviour of the bulldogs fans will be interesting if they continue to win. They had a lot of issues last time they were a force.
________
By “issues” I assume you mean “atrocities”.
Six out of six so far for this Bludger in my local clubs NRL tipping comp.
Two to go for a clean sweep!
People are awestruck, saying that Centre bloke doesn’t have a patch on you, and that Nadia88 should take note of the serious tipster.
Go the mighty St George Illawarra Steelers Dragons.
Manly and West Tigers for tomorrows last two games
Trump says he will help Myanmar following the tragic earthquake in that country.
I wonder what his fee will be.
That and “night club incidents”
There were also allegations that the club offered a very large bribe to get approval for a mega casino/pokie palace/club (oh, and there was a new ground attached in case anyone was actually interested in the football)
Arange says:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 8:22 pm
I see the WA 2PP is at 57.0% on the live results page, which is exactly the same as my prediction:
57/43 makes sense. This suggests a swing to Labor…perfectly logical. I’m hoping the move against the Reactionaries gathers force and eventually hits 4:1 against them. This would be more than they deserve. They would surely lose all their seats and that would make me very happy. I don’t ask for much. Most assuredly, the Reactionaries do not deserve to be in the Parliament. They are a small, unrepresentative sect who are vastly out of touch with voters, and who have dedicated their loyalty to a moron in Washington.
Labor can advantage themselves by declaring they will govern alone. This creates a very distinct contrast: if a voter wants a stable, predictable majority government (and most voters want exactly that), then they should vote Labor.
—–
I’m not sure how this is advantageous when it doesn’t seem a likely outcome and where a common criticism of a majority Labor govt in the past term is they’ve done too little. There would be more people than ever whose preference is a minority govt or just another govt. Labor should probably just continue to say they’re targeting majority govt and deal with whatever parliament arises.
OC
Yes, the Bulldogs fans carry on like some of the soccer supporters at times. Not good for the game.
Maybe a Newspoll tomorrow night?
*night
OC I’m not sure if you were being serious about the AFL going to Newcastle but to my thinking that’s where the AFL goes to die. It’s going to take 20 years for the Suns and Giants to be able to be self sufficient, if ever. I think after Tasmania comes in that’s it as far as expansion.
Andrew_Earlwood,
You have missed the other salient point about Usman that would really be getting up the nose of Lars Von Trier, the CA Cane Toad and his mate Dutton. He’s an out and proud Muslim. Kawahja had the temerity to speak up against Israel! How dare he! Therefore, he must be destroyed. And Liberal lickspittles like Lars Von Trier relish the opportunity to try and do just that here.
”
Golf Foxtrot Yankeesays:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 9:08 pm
Slashing of public health agencies… Cutting vaccine programs… There’s a couple more radical GOP policies that according to some we shouldn’t care about…
”
Daily Kos: Trump wants more domestic industrial production, yet his own policies are making that prohibitively expensive.
But, of course, Trump is living in la la land.
“We’re already setting records for new plants. The tally, just within a period of a few weeks is very large. I think our automobile business will flourish like it’s never done before,” he said.
The actual number of new post-tariffs plants is zero. There is a handful of existing construction, which is being subsidized by former President Joe Biden’s Infrastructure Reduction Act for electric vehicles and battery plants. But Trump has already said that he will zero that
Been There,
You picked the Bunnies over Penrith!?! Good man. 🙂
Maybe you might get the Everest , Melbourne Cup and Oz open right next time centre.
I think that the Prime Minister should keep his post-election options open. If asked about post-election deals, just say he’s going for a majority. If asked again, especially by a “journalist” from a hostile outlet, just say “I’ve answered your question” or answer a question he wanted to be asked.
GM, Ford stocks reel after Trump announces 25% auto tariffs on foreign-made vehicles, certain parts
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-ford-stocks-reel-after-trump-announces-25-auto-tariffs-on-foreign-made-vehicles-certain-parts-134341668.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFsCKp3-dnl7RLHhBmvAVU9DvhB2oPvBa15r18wdNtQlhbaGfAeWpdZdnzdBGBLDGx8opX6R_N1J99B2dgz5CWnSZ2Fc9owzD7GKpSBr-UYOsu9i-DTiyh56XhjkT5KSQO3UI4boEb6Mg8pFLh0mWbTnH9xwyjNB9lXg7wAOGw9L
“President Trump made good on his promise to impose tariffs on foreign automakers, imposing 25% duties on all cars and light trucks not made in the United States, as well as “certain auto parts.” The move sent shares of GM (GM), Ford (F), and other automakers sharply lower on Thursday.
“This will continue to spur growth that you’ve never seen before,” Trump said from the White House on Wednesday, signing an executive order putting the tariffs in place. The 25% tariffs are set to take effect April 2 and add to existing tariffs. The White House claimed that $100 billion in annual duties will be collected.
GM shares tumbled over 7%, while Stellantis (STLA) shed over 1% and Ford dipped over 3%. European automakers as well as Japanese and Korean brands fell on Thursday as well.”
As an old Newie boy I can confidently say that if Novocastrians were given a choice between having an AFL team or having pancreatic cancer, they would choose pancreatic cancer because you can sometimes get rid of it.
The AFL needs to learn from V’landys – expansion is well and good but you should get someone else to pay for it.
Congratulations to the SA Newsouthwelshmen shield winners
I suspected you were trying to lure the afl into Newcastle like napoleon invited the Russians and Austrians to take the pratzen heights.
mj @ #572 Saturday, March 29th, 2025 – 10:15 pm
Yeah, this is one of my Australian political bugbears. Those hollering for a minority government with neither the “Shit Party” or “Shit-Lite Party” having a majority never seem to have a solid reply to what happened to the 2010-2013 “lovely minority government” in which pretty much every good thing they achieved was subsequently destroyed when the “Shit Party” under Abbott took power for 9 years.
So then, what’s the big plan if we go down this path again, we get a “Minority shit-lite” government in May, then that would likely fall to a “Shit Party” majority in 2028 and they end up winning majorities in 2031 and 2034 until the country’s so shit in 2037 that it barely votes for the “Shit-Lite” party and we do this whole wanking carousel again?
Of course he’s not serious Dave.
Newcastle is Rugby Leagues heartland.
It will take a lot of AFL money to get any exposure there, and then, for what?
They can try for the Gong as well for a similar result.
mj says:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 10:15 pm
The very last thing Labor should do is encourage voters to go Green. This would be electoral suicide. Govern alone or not all has been the traditional battle cry. Labor should stick with it. The Gillard experience showed just how treacherous the Greens can be. Labor should not forget.
Jason Sangha, who was instrumental in SA winning SA Sheffield Shield final after 29 year, is not a ‘regular’ Australian eventhough he is born in Sydney.
Steve777 @ #579 Saturday, March 29th, 2025 – 10:26 pm
Albo should just be honest for once and admit that he will be open to negotiations with anyone. We all know that this is the reality. It might even help him get re-elected.
In order, I reckon it will be the Teals, the COALition, literally anyone else, and last of all the Greens.
Yes C@t. The Bunnies have potential, so I never write them off.
I’ll give Centre credit for identifying that early.
Penrith were very vulnerable at that time, but I don’t expect it to stay that way.
Disastrous policy to abolish working from home / repeal right to disconnect.
Elections are decided by the middle class, many who expect WFH to continue. Plus wfh helps with cost of living. Albo should be loading up hard on this.
This point alone could cost the coalition the election.
So far so good. Dutton has effectively already conceded defeat. Oh, a Parliament with fewer than 50 reactionaries would be a joy. Hopes are high for Labor…for rationality and for justice, for the social contract.
The Reactionaries should dissolve themselves. Not only are they out of ideas, they owe their allegiance to a foreign power. They should retreat from shame alone.
A promise not to deal with the crossbench is essentially an attempt to blackmail voters who are thinking of voting for minors and independents. Politicians with integrity (if there are such things) should be prepared to accept the voters’ verdict no matter how unpleasant it might be.
Yeah, this is one of my Australian political bugbears. Those hollering for a minority government with neither the “Shit Party” or “Shit-Lite Party” having a majority never seem to have a solid reply to what happened to the 2010-2013 “lovely minority government” in which pretty much every good thing they achieved was subsequently destroyed when the “Shit Party” under Abbott took power for 9 years.
——
Shit Lite alone isn’t impressing anyone. Neither is Shit. 2010-13 was propped up by rural independents and Greens. If there is a minority govt this time around it is likely to be propped up by a much larger crop of teals and/or Greens. It’s quite a different dynamic now, and most under 45 who are now a majority of the electorate have little allegiance or faith in the career hack party system.
CNN’s psephologist
(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
Just 6% of Greenlanders want to join the United States. There are more people who think we faked the moon landing (~10%).
85% of Greenlanders are opposed.
Meanwhile, less than 30% of Americans want Greenland to join the U.S.
I’ve rarely seen anything so unpopular. Watch video)
https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1905634237639688413?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1905634237639688413%7Ctwgr%5E36d4c0cfd6a47f34ca34af06f0825933c43402ab%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2025%2F3%2F29%2F2313158%2F-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-Figuring-out-that-reality-really-does-bite
Well said Ven.
I hope the regular takes note, but I think his regular only applies against indigenous people.
Ante Meridian says:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 10:51 pm
A promise not to deal with the crossbench is essentially an attempt to blackmail voters who are thinking of voting for minors and independents.
Blackmail? How so?
Voters are offered a choice: a stable majority Labor government or Reactionary-led disorder… deal-making, treachery, chicanery…chaos. We had more than a decade of betrayal, deceits, reactionary plotting and recurring misrule.
Labor are ‘safe hands’ in this very important election. They should do whatever they can to project from their strengths – their unity, competence, coherence. The alternative for the electorate is very clear.
There’s no such thing as a free lunch at the electoral buffet.
SA’s Queensland captain didn’t do much in the final but the fast bowler from up there did.
Home-grown Croweaters Lehmann and Carey made match-winning centuries.
mj @ #594 Saturday, March 29th, 2025 – 10:52 pm
Very well, since I can’t predict the future I’ll take your word for this. But I will bring this up angrily in 2035 if it turns out we’re in the third term of a majority Coalition government under Prime Minister Andrew Hastie or whoever ends up leader.
”
mjsays:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 10:52 pm
Yeah, this is one of my Australian political bugbears. Those hollering for a minority government with neither the “Shit Party” or “Shit-Lite Party” having a majority never seem to have a solid reply to what happened to the 2010-2013 “lovely minority government” in which pretty much every good thing they achieved was subsequently destroyed when the “Shit Party” under Abbott took power for 9 years.
——
Shit Lite alone isn’t impressing anyone. Neither is Shit. 2010-13 was propped up by rural independents and Greens. If there is a minority govt this time around it is likely to be propped up by a much larger crop of teals and/or Greens. It’s quite a different dynamic now, and most under 45 who are now a majority of the electorate have little allegiance or faith in the career hack party system.
”
Tail wagging the dog.
True Believer,
The disastrous WFH policy of Dutton has already spawned an article in the media:
Employers want workers back in the office. How do parents of young children cope?
https://www.smh.com.au/education/employers-want-workers-back-in-the-office-how-do-parents-of-young-children-cope-20250328-p5ln8r.html