The ball is now officially rolling on a campaign for a May 3 election, with nominations to be declared in two weeks and a not-quite-two-week early voting period starting on Tuesday, April 22. The latter reflects the interruption of Easter, extending from April 18 to 21, with Anzac Day presenting a further interruption on April 25. Some attractions to make a visit to Poll Bludger part of your daily routine during the campaign period:
• I may regret saying this, but I will at least aspire to publish posts on a daily basis, which will either break news of major polls as soon as they report, or appear overnight to summarise developments of the previous day and the contents of the morning newspapers.
• The Poll Bludger election guide, which I’ve spent much of the past week bringing up to speed, offers an overview page reviewing the electoral terrain and summarising the seats to watch, and detailed interactive guides to all 150 lower house seats and eight state and territory Senate contests,
• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate tells you as much in one glance about the state of federal polling as any sensible person needs to know, and uniquely offers regularly updated trend measures at state level.
• Come the big day and the weeks to follow, the site will offer live results reporting that will wipe the floor with all comers, as an examination of its Western Australian state equivalent should readily attest. Innovative features include a model for calculating win probabilities three ways in complex contests and a new colour-coded results map feature along the lines of that recently added for the Western Australian results.
Show-don’t-tell time:
• A new poll from RedBridge Group, conducted March 13 to 24 from a sample of 2039, has Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, unchanged from the previous poll of March 3 to 11. The primary votes are Labor 34% (up two), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 11% (down one) and others 17% (down two). The Coalition continues to do better among those who profess themselves “solid” in their choice, leading 54-46 among that group. Twenty-nine per cent felt themselves able to name something the Albanese government had done that had made their lives better (electricity rebates being most cited), compared with 54% who couldn’t; 23% reported themselves more or less in favour of tariffs, with 35% more or less opposed; and 68% registered concern about Chinese naval vessels off the coast, with 24% less or not at all concerned. The addition of the voting intention numbers to BludgerTrack has lifted its reading of the Labor primary vote by a grand total of 0.1%, and left all other indicators unchanged.
• Thursday’s Herald Sun had JWS Research polling from the two teal-held seats in Melbourne, conducted “a fortnight ago” from samples of 800 each for Australian Energy Producers. The results have Zoe Daniel trailing Liberal challenger Tim Wilson 54-46 in Goldstein, compared with her 52.9-47.1 win in 2022, with Wilson on 44% of the primary vote (40.4% in 2022) to Daniel’s 24% (34.5%), Labor on 21% (a somewhat counter-intuitive improvement on their 11.0% in 2022) and the Greens on 5% (7.8% in 2022). Monique Ryan is credited with a 51-49 lead over Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer in Kooyong, likewise compared with a 52.9-47.1 win for Ryan in 2022, from primary votes of 40% for Hamer (42.7% for Josh Frydenberg at the 2022 election) and 32% for Ryan (40.3% in 2022), with Labor on 11% (6.9%) and the Greens on 9% (6.3%). Peter Dutton was credited was leads over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister of 51-35 in Goldstein and 40-36 in Kooyong.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Policy Research has results from the second wave of a series tracking changes in attitudes ahead of the election, the first having been conducted from October 14 to 25 from a sample of 3622, this latest having run to January 29 to February 12 with a sample of 3514, 2380 of whom also participated in the first wave. On this occasion there is no straightforward reading of voting intention, but it finds confidence in the federal government fell from 52.9% in its honeymoon period to 33.7% in the latest survey. Satisfaction with democracy “remains relatively stable at 66.2%”, and there has been a general decrease in sentiments associated with populism from August 2018 to January 2025, such as a drop from 67.9% to 61.3% in the share of respondents who felt “government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves”. Nonetheless, “life satisfaction” has been on a downward trend since pre-pandemic, which has resumed since 2023 after recovering from a slump while it was on, and the percentage reporting financial difficulty stabilised in the low thirties in 2024 after a steady ascent from late 2020.
• The Tasmanian government announced earlier this week that the periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the seats of Nelson and Pembroke, would be postponed from their usual date in the first week of May to May 24, to exclude the possibility of a clash with the federal election.
First
#JeSuisBluey
I see that last night we had a proclamation from The Ministry of Hard Man Truth:
ScromoIIsays:
Friday, March 28, 2025 at 10:55 pm
The big takeaway from the Redbridge poll is that those who have little or no financial stress are still vote very strongly with the Coalition, despite there being a negative correlation between level of education and the Coalition vote.
This means that while people who are “battlers” are switching to the Coalition, those who are well off are not going the other way. The only voters who will keep voting for Labor are the unemployed and the long-term poor (who mostly stay that way due to laziness!)! Labor are the party of leeches and sloths. Only the Liberal-National Coalition reward hard work, industry, aspiration and advancement.
Lol. 😐
Day ,2
All’s well.
nath-dave,
More of a Bruno Marrs girl myself 😉
https://youtu.be/d7OROxsW5ZY?si=zMDKDb27MQrDFnf4
Wow! The Boss sounding feisty in the comments above! 😀 The Biggest. The Best. And the Baddest in town!
Bring it on! Game on, Molls!
WB is pumped!
QLD as the only strongest Federal lib/nats state and where the Federal lib/nats are going to get majority of their seats ,
Wouldn’t it be ironic if the seat of Dickson lost for Federal LNP
was the seat which gave Labor majority government
David Rowe
Dr Bonham gets quoted in the Saturday Paper..
Mind you the article is mostly about the Teals whingeing.
The delaying of the election by Cyclone Alfred may have benefited Labor’s prospects, too. This is despite the prevailing wisdom of the past few months, which said the government should go earlier to avoid having to deliver a budget awash with red ink.
In the weeks since Alfred, Labor’s poll numbers have gone up, while those of the Coalition are, by the description of poll analyst and commentator Kevin Bonham, “tanking”.
He wrote: “I think the cyclone-induced shift away from an April 12 election has actually helped Labor in that they can make going the full term look like the right thing to do rather than desperation. While the Budget may be a very hard sell, to put out a Budget anyway and say ‘this is how it is and we are making the mature decisions’ should look better than running away from the Budget for no easily explainable reason.”
Certainly, the Coalition has lost momentum over the past month or so. On Bonham’s analysis of six polls conducted since February 25, compared with the same polls before that date, the Coalition’s primary vote was down an average 1.6 per cent. Labor was narrowly back in front and its lead was “continuing to build”.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2025/03/29/inside-story-how-albaneses-late-election-sent-the-teals-broke
Monique Ryan is credited with a 51-49 lead over Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer in Kooyong, likewise compared with a 52.9-47.1 win for Ryan in 2022, from primary votes of 40% for Hamer (42.7% for Josh Frydenberg at the 2022 election) and 32% for Ryan (40.3% in 2022), with Labor on 11% (6.9%) and the Greens on 9% (6.3%).
——————————–
Why the opinion polling are heading towards 2019 style debacle , getting it badly wrong in Victoria
Opinion polling are getting showed up on the mythical swing to liberal party once again
The federal liberal party are not getting swings to it in non lib/nats seats , if this poll is near accurate there is a 2.7% swing against the liberal party primary vote
Some more polling quotes from the Saturday Paper..
Paul Smith, director of public data with YouGov, nominates another factor in the Coalition’s decline: the perceived similarities between some of the Coalition’s policies and those of the Trump regime in America.
“Polls up until February were a referendum on the government,” he says. “Now they’ve become a choice, particularly since Zelensky versus Trump.”
As Australians woke up to the reality of what was happening in America, Smith says, they took a “fresh look at Peter Dutton”.
This coincided with Dutton talking about cracking down on working from home and radically cutting public sector jobs.
According to Smith, Dutton’s promise to fire 41,000 public servants was not popular with the electorate. It didn’t matter that his target was “Canberra public servants”. As Smith points out, “workers see themselves as workers”.
Dutton’s narrow path to the prime ministership, he says, “runs through outer-suburban, working-class seats. That’s his biggest strategy, and his policies like work from home, sacking workers, are unpopular with the people whose votes he is seeking.
“There’s been a small but decisive shift in support caused by people looking at Dutton’s workplace policies and not liking what they see.”
And from Kos Samaras…
Other pollsters and analysts also question the appeal of recent Dutton announcements, particularly to younger voters. Kos Samaras, director of strategy and analytics with RedBridge Group, finds some of Dutton’s choices more than a little strange.
“These voters, Millennials and Gen Z, people 45 years and younger, are now focusing on the election, and they’re saying, ‘Well, I’m not really happy with Labor, but these other bozos are not offering much either. They seem to be talking weirdo stuff, like deporting people and sacking public servants. What about the economy, people?’ ”
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2025/03/29/inside-story-how-albaneses-late-election-sent-the-teals-broke
Thursday’s Herald Sun had JWS Research polling from the two teal-held seats in Melbourne, conducted “a fortnight ago” from samples of 800 each for Australian Energy Producers. The results have Zoe Daniel trailing Liberal challenger Tim Wilson 54-46 in Goldstein, compared with her 52.9-47.1 win in 2022, with Wilson on 44% of the primary vote (40.4% in 2022) to Daniel’s 24% (34.5%), Labor on 21% (a somewhat counter-intuitive improvement on their 11.0% in 2022)
————————————————————-
Even in this questionable poll, contradicts the swings to Liberal Party from Labor or non lib/nats aligned members
If Daniels is losing primary votes it is going to labor ,
Just can not see where the federal lib/nats are getting over 55 seats
World News & Politics Patrol:
Putin vows to ‘finish off’ Ukraine and mocks size of British army after ‘reassurance force’ announced: https://www.lbc.co.uk/world-news/putin-finish-off-ukraine-mocks-size-british-army/
Ukraine’s officials call US minerals deal “robbery” as Washington expands demands: https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/03/28/ft-ukraines-officials-call-us-minerals-deal-robbery-as-washington-expands-demands/
Ukraine’s spy agency says Russia believes it must end the war by 2026 or risk falling far behind the US and China: https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-end-war-risk-falling-behind-us-china-gur-skibitsky-2025-3
Vladimir Putin is threatening an Arctic war as tensions grow ahead of US Vice President JD Vance’s visit to Greenland: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14544213/Putin-threatens-Arctic-WAR-says-United-States-taking-Greenland-NATO-seen-possible-foothold-long-time.html
Russia Reserves the Right to Violate Ceasefire Agreement on Energy Strikes: https://united24media.com/latest-news/russia-reserves-the-right-to-violate-ceasefire-agreement-on-energy-strikes-says-peskov-7144
JD Vance Warns There’s ‘Very Strong Evidence’ China, Russia Want Greenland: https://www.newsweek.com/jd-vance-warns-very-strong-evidence-china-russia-want-greenland-2052307
Nigel Farage backs American chlorinated chicken on UK shelves: https://www.thenational.scot/news/25044851.nigel-farage-backs-american-chlorinated-chicken-uk-shelves/
Influencer Paid by Russia Added to White House Press Pool: https://www.thedailybeast.com/tim-pool-was-paid-by-russia-but-will-joins-white-house-press-pool/
Bannon: Trump ‘going to prison’ if Democrat wins White House in 2028: https://thehill.com/homenews/5219377-trump-bannon-prison-warning/?tbref=hp
The national security chat debacle certainly merits attention. But the Trump administration is now blatantly disappearing students and others who are in the country legally: https://newrepublic.com/article/193291/trump-disappearing-students-rumeysa-ozturk-rubio-biggest-scandal
Trump has made America hated around the world. Here’s a sign of how bad it’s getting: https://www.nj.com/politics/2025/03/trump-has-made-america-hated-around-the-world-heres-a-sign-of-how-bad-its-getting.html
Musk: Trump will ‘go after’ people ‘pushing the lies’ about Tesla: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5219374-elon-musk-donald-trump-response-tesla-vandalism/
Hillary Clinton warns Trump ‘stupidity’ will leave US ‘feeble and friendless’: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/28/hillary-clinton-trump-stupidity
Trump’s Approval Rating on the Economy Hits New Low, Polls Show: https://www.newsweek.com/trump-economy-approval-rating-new-low-gallup-2051744
Dow sinks more than 700 points. Stocks are on track for their worst quarter since 2023: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/28/investing/us-stocks-tariff-uncertainty-volatility
Utah becomes the first state to ban fluoride in public drinking water: https://apnews.com/article/utah-fluoride-ban-43f67153beb3e06ada9d782655fb15de
Israeli soldier tells CBS News he was ordered to use Palestinians as human shields in Gaza: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israeli-soldier-palestinians-human-shields-gaza/
Nearly 500 cases of measles reported across 19 states: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/500-cases-measles-reported-nationwide-19-states-cdc/story?id=120251851
Earthquake death toll in Myanmar, Thailand surpasses 150: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/28/powerful-earthquake-strikes-myanmar
Bizarre:
Inside story: How Albanese’s late election sent the teals broke
Independent campaigns were structured around an April 12 election – and the decision to go later has added roughly $250,000 to required spending in each seat. By Mike Seccombe.
Ben Smith is more or less out of money. The independent candidate for the seat of Flinders, currently held by the Liberal Party’s Zoe McKenzie, is a genuine chance to win this election – but he, and others, spent their campaign reserves banking on an earlier poll.
April 12 seemed “fairly solid” as the election date, says Smith. “So we geared all of our resources towards that. You know, you don’t want to leave any money on the table.”
In the end, though, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese did not call the April election that many political insiders believed was likely.
I think I have shared the story for all of you to read, at this link:
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/share/20453/VSEzO4cD
I find this story bizarre for (at least) two reasons
1) The headline “How Albanese’s late election sent the teals broke”. It is not a late election at all, so why would the Saturday Paper, to which I subscribe, say this?
2) Why would anyone believe, on the gossip, that 12 April was a baked-in date, and tailor their spending to that?
I would also add that only those who want to see Labor lose the upcoming Federal election were enthusiastic about the 12 April Federal election date.
May 9 in the headline, as in Australia Act(s) of 1986 independence? WB?
And on La(ura) Tingle and the missing word, https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/03/25/federal-polls-morgan-demosau-victorian-results-and-more/comment-page-51/#comment-4484192?
So at the start of the election there is a good mix between many of the aggregators:
* Bludger Track 50/50
* Kevin Bonham has it 51.3-48.7 ALP
* Mark The Ballot has a 1.5% swing to the Liberals on Primary,
* The Guardian (enough chat on here already) with a primary swing of 0.8% to the Liberals and 2.8% TPP
* betting market $1.95/$1.85 Liberal party which given the volatility over the past few days let’s call it 50/50 as outside of $1,90 that is one movement off evens.
@ cat, apologies buddy if I was grumpy last night, long week but I’m not as sold on any politicians and haven’t for some time. Shorten was one of the few on the Labor side that I believed got it from big picture perspective and most things he touched he improved upon. We’re so much worse for him leaving politics.
Douglas and Milko says:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 7:09 am
Bizarre:
“Inside story: How Albanese’s late election sent the teals broke
Independent campaigns were structured around an April 12 election – and the decision to go later has added roughly $250,000 to required spending in each seat. By Mike Seccombe.
Ben Smith is more or less out of money. The independent candidate for the seat of Flinders, currently held by the Liberal Party’s Zoe McKenzie, is a genuine chance to win this election – but he, and others, spent their campaign reserves banking on an earlier poll.
April 12 seemed “fairly solid” as the election date, says Smith. “So we geared all of our resources towards that. You know, you don’t want to leave any money on the table.”
In the end, though, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese did not call the April election that many political insiders believed was likely.”
I think I have shared the story for all of you to read, at this link:
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/share/20453/VSEzO4cD
I find this story bizarre for (at least) two reasons
1) The headline “How Albanese’s late election sent the teals broke”. It is not a late election at all, so why would the Saturday Paper, to which I subscribe, say this?
2) Why would anyone believe, on the gossip, that 12 April was a baked-in date, and tailor their spending to that?
I would also add that only those who want to see Labor lose the upcoming Federal election were enthusiastic about the 12 April Federal election date.
______________
Very odd. Politically naive, even. Although the cynic in me says that crying poor is simply a variant of the underdog political stratagem.
Dodgy ‘polling’ in the Daily Rupert..
Exclusive: Almost half of all Australians feel they are worse off than they were three years ago before Anthony Albanese took office, as the Prime Minister and Opposition leader Peter Dutton both cast the federal election as a “choice” between who will ensure households are better in the future.
About 45 per cent of people say they have gone backwards under the Albanese Government, compared to 26 per cent who feel “better off” and 30 per cent who say they are “about the same”, according to analysis done by News Corp’s Growth Intelligence Centre as part of the Lighthouse Consumer Sentiment Tracker.
The survey of more than 5,000 Australian adults conducted in January and February found changes to the cost of living, including groceries, housing and bills, was the reason 91 per cent of those who said they were worse off felt that way.
That’s it. No methodology stated, yet enough for the front page of the Daily TurdBurgler to lead with ‘Hard Labor’.
In an alternate universe, Murdoch could have led with 56% Feel Better Off, Or Say No Difference Under Labor.
https://therickwilson.substack.com/p/loose-lips-sink-ships-2025-edition, on TDJT 2.0’s national security gang using apps that had been warned against, moronic emojis, personal devices … after all the chanting about Hunter Biden’s laptop, HRC’s email server
Anyone keen to hazard a guess as to what the government’s got up its sleeve with the 1.3 billion for “decisions taken but not yet announced”?
That jws poll sounds pretty suss, Zoe Daniel has easily been one of the best performing independents , I really can’t see freedom boy getting back in with 54%
I know everyone says that the ALP was going to an election on April 12 but I never saw that. And April 12th is also the start of school holidays in some states.
They were always going in May imo due to the shit happening in the USA – firstly, the more unsettle/uncertain the world becomes, Trump in this instance and his tariffs, the more likely voters will go with the status quo. You don’t generally change when you don’t know. Secondly, the March 1/4 CPI is due for release in the week leading up to the election and will show continued improvement.
It will be interesting post election to see the review of all this.
So we’re off to the polls. Just curious as to which Bludgers correctly tipped the May 3 date (I vaguely recall nadia or someone collecting tips).
“Shorten was one of the few on the Labor side that I believed got it from big picture perspective and most things he touched he improved upon. We’re so much worse for him leaving politics.”
@Trent Slaters
I wonder if you were saying this at the time when Bill Shorten was Labor leader though.
Laura Tingle has also noticed that Albo is sounding sharper.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-29/election-policy-campaign-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton/105100152
I’d suggest that at least some of Ben Smith’s $250,000 has been poorly targeted, judging by the number of his Facebook ads I get when I don’t live anywhere near Flinders (although I do have family there and visit quite often).
No more ‘swing to the ABC’ as this is Antony Green’s last election. Which makes this his final federal election preview:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/preview-national
Good Morning! Here’s your Starters Gun Has Been Fired Daily News & Views Roundup.
Labor regains poll lead as election called for 3 May
By Adrian Beaumont
https://johnmenadue.com/labor-regains-poll-lead-as-election-called-for-3-may/
Three ways to victory: The numbers game that will decide the election. Will the major parties achieve an outright majority or will crossbenchers be the kingmakers? Walk through the election pathways.
https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2025/pathways-to-victory/index.html
Interactive: How close is the race in your electorate? Everything you need to know
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/interactive-how-close-is-the-race-in-your-electorate-everything-you-need-to-know-20250218-p5ld65.html
The 12 seats to watch most closely – and why they could determine the election
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-12-seats-to-watch-most-closely-and-they-could-determine-the-election-20250303-p5lgiz.html
The Coalition has its eyes on outer suburban and regional seats, particularly in NSW and Victoria, but Labor hopes to pick off a few gains around the country to offset any losses. Independents, both teal and rural, will again be a fascinating wildcard
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/28/battleground-the-seats-where-the-2025-australian-federal-election-will-be-won-and-lost
Back to Back Barries: we’re off and running to a May election
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2025/mar/29/back-to-back-barries-were-off-and-running-to-a-may-election
It’s a date: the 2025 federal election has finally been called – Full Story podcast
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2025/mar/28/its-a-date-the-2025-federal-election-has-finally-been-called-full-story-podcast
Coalition’s gas plan unlikely to lower prices and could push up greenhouse gas emissions, experts say
Body representing the gas industry says Peter Dutton’s plan is a ‘damaging market intervention that will drive away investment’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/29/coalitions-gas-plan-unlikely-to-lower-prices-and-could-push-up-greenhouse-gas-emissions-experts-say
‘Hard to see how lower pricing will emerge’: Experts doubtful of Dutton’s gas plan.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/hard-to-see-how-lower-pricing-will-emerge-experts-doubtful-of-dutton-s-gas-plan-20250327-p5ln5j.html
Peter Dutton’s new energy plan sounds like a gas. In reality it means more emissions – and more profits for industry. The opposition leader’s new national gas plan aims at increasing domestic gas production. But in reality that just means more subsidies for gas companies By Tim Buckley
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2025/mar/28/peter-duttons-new-energy-plan-sounds-like-a-gas-in-reality-it-means-more-emissions-and-more-profits-for-industry
Explainer: When is the Australian election? All you need to know about early voting, how to apply for a postal vote, what to do if you are overseas and more
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/28/what-date-is-the-australian-federal-election-everything-you-need-to-know-about-voting-and-the-state-of-the-parties
Peter Hartcher observes that an enormous proportion of the electorate – four voters in 10 – is uncommitted. So the campaign will be unusually consequential.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sanity-and-superficiality-to-the-fore-as-campaign-kicks-off-that-can-t-last-20250328-p5ln80.html
Paul Bongiorno. The election campaign begins in earnest
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/03/29/the-election-campaign-begins-earnest
This election, here’s what Australians across age groups and postcodes want from the next government
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2025/mar/29/australian-federal-election-2025-voters-polls
Policy tracker
Your guide to the major policy issues of the 2025 election. How will Labor, the Coalition, the Greens and the independents make Australia better?
https://stories.theconversation.com/policy-tracker/
Winning the election outright looks tough for Labor and the Coalition – their first goal is not to lose it
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/28/australian-federal-election-2025-analysis-liberal-labor-dutton-albanese
Inside story: How Albanese’s late election sent the teals broke. By Mike Seccombe
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2025/03/29/inside-story-how-albaneses-late-election-sent-the-teals-broke
This election is between a battler and a cop – at least that’s what they’ll tell you By Jacqueline Maley
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/this-election-is-between-a-battler-and-a-cop-at-least-that-s-what-they-ll-tell-you-20250328-p5ln8m.html
Peter Dutton’s budget reply Speech is full of distortions and many of the key polices are flawed or we cannot be sure they will work as intended. The Labor Party might be criticised as too cautious, but the Coalition is clearly not ready for government. By Michael Keating
https://johnmenadue.com/what-could-we-expect-from-a-dutton-governmentpic-dutton/
The Age Editorial. We’re prepared for election of small targets, which is deeply disappointing
https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-re-prepared-for-election-of-small-targets-which-is-deeply-disappointing-20250327-p5lmze.html
The SMH Editorial: With polls suggesting a tight race, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton have opted for safe tactics targeting the hip-pocket rather than new and bold ideas that could energise voters.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cost-of-living-election-campaign-looms-as-long-term-issues-press-in-20250328-p5lna8.html
What’s at stake on May 3. By Karen Barlow
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2025/03/28/whats-stake-may-3
The iron law of aromatics that explains why politicians are sweating on Victoria.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-iron-law-of-aromatics-that-explains-why-politicians-are-sweating-on-victoria-20250306-p5lhja.html
Aspirational, marginal, crucial: which side of the election line will Bennelong and Chisholm fall?
The Sydney and Melbourne middle-ring seats have gained voters from abolished electorates and have significant numbers of Chinese Australians. Labor faces a battle to hold on to both
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/28/australia-election-2025-marginal-seats-chisholm-bennelong-liberal-labor
The ‘sledge-a-thon’ begins: Leaders square off on tax and Trump. By David Crowe
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-visits-governor-general-at-dawn-to-call-the-election-for-may-3-20250216-p5lcj9.html
With the economy dominating this election campaign, Labor insiders say they can shake voters’ traditional perceptions of the Coalition as the stronger steward. By Karen Barlow.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2025/03/29/labor-hitches-election-hopes-economic-management
Uninspiring leaders, stressed voters and the shadow of Trump make for an uncertain contest. By Michelle Grattan
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2025/2025/03/28/michelle-grattan-election
Karen Middleton has landed at Inside Story: Pre-election giveaways
The last week of parliament exposed where the tensions lie on both sides of politics
https://insidestory.org.au/pre-election-giveaways/
The major parties are harvesting voters’ personal details in the guise of helping people apply for postal ballots at the very start of a hotly contested election campaign.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/major-parties-launch-personal-data-harvesting-websites-20250328-p5lncj.html
Cowardly politics is robbing our children blind. It’s time to be brave. By Ken Henry
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cowardly-politics-is-robbing-our-children-blind-it-s-time-to-be-brave-20250327-p5lmz1.html
The new kids shaping the Australian federal election block. Gen Z and Millennials.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2025/2025/03/28/election-gen-z-voters
As we head to an election, does either party care about retirees? By Bec Wilson
https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/as-we-head-to-an-election-does-either-party-care-about-retirees-20250328-p5lnct.html
Why we have nothing to fear from a hung parliament. By Anne Twomey
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-we-have-nothing-to-fear-from-a-hung-parliament-20250327-p5lmyn.html
Kim Rubenstein. Dutton’s weaponisation of citizenship
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/03/29/duttons-weaponisation-citizenship
Federal election 2025: What is each political party promising to do for housing affordability?
https://www.domain.com.au/news/federal-election-pass-or-fail-what-is-each-political-party-promising-to-do-for-housing-affordability-1364438/
The key issues that will define the election – and where the major parties stand
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-key-issues-that-will-define-the-election-and-where-the-major-parties-stand-20250306-p5lhbw.html
Narcissism in politics to the fore. Following World War II, a branch of American intellectuals became preoccupied with the notion of totalitarianism. By Graham Maddox
https://johnmenadue.com/narcissism-in-politics-to-the-fore/
The AFP is reporting a surge in threats against parliamentarians across the political spectrum, which have almost doubled in the past three years. Last Friday Tony Burke was invited to speak at a Ramadan prayer event at Parry Park in Lakemba, the heart of his western Sydney electorate. When Burke arrived, a text message circulated among certain members of the Muslim community telling them to come from all over the city to confront Burke.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/activists-label-tony-burke-racist-in-unauthorised-flyers-20250328-p5lne6.html
How new electoral boundaries have changed Sydney’s political map.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-new-electoral-boundaries-have-changed-sydney-s-political-map-20250228-p5lfyo.html
State of exception. Taswegians tend to go their own way at national elections, and that can matter when the results are close. By Peter ‘Mumbles’ Brent
https://insidestory.org.au/tasmania-state-of-exception/
Some thoughts on the recent Western Australian election
By Bob McMullan
https://johnmenadue.com/some-thoughts-on-the-recent-western-australian-election/
Why does Australia need submarines? By Peter Briggs
https://johnmenadue.com/why-does-australia-need-submarines/
AUKUS: Many chickens but no subs. By Richard Cullen
https://johnmenadue.com/__trashed-74/
In deciding whether to award a massive Australian naval contract to Japan or to Germany, the Australian government must carefully weigh both competing strengths and strategic relationships. By Jason Koutsoukis.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/defence/2025/03/29/choosing-australias-frigate-suppliers
Why your Super is at the mercy of Trump.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/why-your-super-is-at-the-mercy-of-trump-20250325-p5lmh2.html
Musk butts up against Wisconsin state law with (now deleted) $1 million check giveaway
Election law experts were skeptical about the billionaire’s move.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/28/elon-musk-wisconsin-supreme-court-giveaway-00257082
Trump moves to strip unionization rights from most federal workers
It’s the latest effort in the president’s drive to disempower the federal bureaucracy.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/28/union-rights-federal-workers-donald-trump-00257010
If Trump Defies the Courts, It Will Backfire Badly. It’s not in his own self-interest.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/03/28/trump-defy-courts-risk-00254813
‘Modest stagflation’ risk climbs for Trump as inflation jumps. Barely two months after Inauguration Day, voters are sounding alarms over the lack of progress on cost-of-living issues.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/28/stagflation-risk-inflation-trump-economy-tariffs-00256500
Trump allies are starting to notice Hegseth’s growing pile of mistakes. Some White House and Pentagon officials now believe Hegseth is the one who messed up in the Signal chat scandal by sending sensitive details on his phone.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/27/hegseth-mistakes-some-trump-allies-00254817
Ukraine and Russia do the Trump dance to shift blame for peace-talk problems. But there’s fear in Kyiv that the U.S. president doesn’t care and will lean toward Moscow.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-peace-dance-cease-fire-donald-trump-united-states/
The Romanian mathematician trying to stop Putin and Trump wrecking the West
https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-vladimir-putin-us-president-donald-trump-west/
Marine Le Pen’s presidential hopes could die next week. Her party hasn’t really planned for it.
France’s far-right powerhouse, the National Rally, has largely avoided discussing Le Pen’s legal troubles.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-2027-presidential-election-national-rally-european-parliament-assistant-trial/
Cartoon Time!
Fiona Katauskas
First Dog On the Moon
David Squires on … a tribute to Jackson Irvine as told by the Socceroo’s arm tattoos
https://www.theguardian.com/football/picture/2025/mar/28/david-squires-socceroos-jackson-irvine-tribute-tattoos
Keir Starmer summons the David Cameron genie for help with benefit cuts – the Stephen Collins cartoon
Ella Baron on the spring statement and Labour’s broken pledges
Oslo Davis
From the Internet
Enjoy!
I think I was pretty close to getting the election date correct when I suggested April 29.
@ Political Nightwatchman,
I wonder if you were saying this at the time when Bill Shorten was Labor leader though
Yeah, I was fairly honest at the time. His problem was Chris Bowen, particularly when he told the public if you don’t like the policy don’t vote for it? I didn’t believe at the time that the bold agenda was required in full, but easy in hindsight.
“But wait! I really do come in peace!!”
Insiders Sunday, 30 Mar
In a 90 minute special, David Speers joins Phil Coorey, Laura Tingle and Samantha Maiden to discuss the official start of the campaign ahead of a May 3 election, reaction to the budget and reply plus the week in parliament.
Erm, April 29 is a Tuesday……..
The iron law of aromatics that explains why politicians are sweating on Victoria.
Second is the odour emanating from Victorian Labor.
If you think of national politics as a fridge, Victoria’s 10-year-old, debt-ridden state Labor government, led by a hand-me-down Premier in Jacinta Allan, is the packet of chicken someone left on a shelf weeks ago and forgot to cook.
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Ooh that wouldn’t smell nice.
Thank you WB, c@t and Hh.
#weatheronPB
We’re sodden again,
flooded with last night’s downpour,
silently squelching.
Pageboisays:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 8:11 am
Erm, April 29 is a Tuesday……..
Ah yes! Correctemundo! So I was actually spot on because I suggested the Saturday after all schools have returned by April 29…which is…drum roll…May 5th 😀
In that case I dips me lid
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 8:19 am
Pageboisays:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 8:11 am
Erm, April 29 is a Tuesday……..
Ah yes! Correctemundo! So I was actually spot on because I suggested the Saturday after all schools have returned by April 29…which is…drum roll…May 5th
________
Surely you are yanking our chain 🙂
Like it or not, Trump is trashing the old world order.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oaKl_F6Mptg
The one thing I do trust is that Australian voters reject the political bias and influencing of media proprietors starting with Murdoch and Stokes (noting Costello exited 9 Entertainment following an altercation which was filmed but no doubt still influences)
These media proprietors are enablers, witness America with Murdoch the promoter of Trump
And this is the reason I challenge their published polling which is for influence purposes attempting to dictate who we should vote for
Why would the Murdoch media publication cover polling they have sought and paid for in Teal seats?
To influence the return of those seats to LNP candidates (this the first requirement for the LNP to reclaim the Treasury benches)
This is an election where Australians can reject media and the influence of media across our institutions including government
SA being a one paper State lead the way and have done over 5 decades since the demise of Playford
It is time for the rest of Australia to follow
Thank you for your ongoing attempts to influence who we vote for Mr Murdoch and Mr Stokes (and others) but WE, the Australian public will vote for a government
Not as you attempt to influence
This is a chance for Australia to show that we are a mature and educated Nation – not a Nation led by the nose
C@tmomma @ #39 Saturday, March 29th, 2025 – 8:19 am
It’s May 3rd which is the day of our election…?
Williams overview
Profile
Wannon covers the coast from the South Australian border to Anglesea on the Great Ocean Road, extending inland through rural territory to Hamilton and Ararat. Its biggest population centre is Warrnambool, home to around 20% of its population. The towns are evenly divided electorally between Liberal and Labor, but the rural balance keeps the seat safely conservative. The seat ranks twelfth in the country for the 55-plus age cohort, third for outright home ownership, eleventh last for non-English speakers and nineteenth for median income.
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One that I will be keeping a close eye on. I reckon Dyson may get it.
Correct, ‘Fess. I was looking at the April calendar on my computer. Oopsie. 😳
But the substantial point still stands. 😉
It just seemed nuts to me to have an election while kids were still at school or during the school holidays. And if you look at the Parliamentary Calendar the school holidays are always to the side, so they are significant. Also, I don’t know if it happens anywhere else but in my neck of the woods plenty of parents take their family on holiday in the week before school holidays to avoid the holiday rush.
Ergo, May 3.
Trump is considering imposing punitive port costs on chinese ships and/or ships operated by chinese companies.
If imposed, whatever else it achieves, it will add to US manufacturing and consumer goods input costs and add to the problems faced by the Chinese economy.
Chinese companies profits, after some sugar hit pump primings, are stagnant. That is after the sugar hit of orders brought forward before Trump’s additional tariffs bite.
Central Government and Local Government tax takes are falling. This include the VAT take. Forces affecting VAT take are varied. It may reflect a reduction in consumer spending despite the hundreds of billions of Yuan being pumped by the Xi to increase consumer spending. It may reflect a fall in prices. It probably does both. But, if the latter, China’s debt to GDP ratio problem may well be joined by a deflation problem, of which there are quite a few other signals.
Meanwhile, while he can walk and chew gum, Xi’s focus is being distracted by the need to sack, disappear, put under a cloud and/or judicially murder quite a few of his own appointees in the military.
The price of despotism is constant vigilance. Something that Trump and his gangsters are keen to demonstrate.
Main message?
Xi may already have achieved what Trump appears to be seeking to achieve: wrecking their respective economies.
Annabelle Crabbe from the ABC inadvertently exposes the disconnect between the bubble in Barton and the bludgers from Budgewoi Bullaburra Bourke Blackall Broome Bunbury Bordertown Buckleboo Burnie Baghdad Bael Bael Bagshot Bogan Gate Borenore Betoota Birdsville Borroloola Barrow Creek Bungendore and Bondi.
[This budget comprises many pages, most of which will no doubt blow away in the gales of the imminent election campaign, but one conclusion is visible from space and should absolutely be noted: this is Jim Chalmers’s formal refusal to sign a non-compete clause.]
And from the Opposition leader [“They’re at the front of our mind as well and we’ve thought about that in the design of what we’re doing. We want to make sure that this has society, or economy-wide benefits.”]
Or as Laura Tingle suggests [With the policy positions essentially in place, we can only speculate about what on earth the leaders of our major parties will talk about for the next five weeks.]
Perhaps from Mr Dutton in the Budget reply [ “re-tool the ADF with asymmetric capabilities to deter a larger adversary”.]
got most voters sorted.
[“We are, and we’ve been clear, I think, about that and we’ll provide some more detail today]
Thanks to the ABC for the clarity
I linked the other day to a discussion on the future of political discussion in the USA.They pointed out their utube videos got a greater number of views than anything the networks offered.
The right wing media ( read murdoch) are miffed that Labor is simple ignoring them and instead going after the emerging offering.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2025/mar/28/a-mugs-game-murdoch-presss-anti-labor-budget-coverage-foreshadows-election-attacks-to-come
The daily mail claimed 8.6 million readers. Why do the claim nonsense that can be discounted by rubbing two brain cells together.
‘goll says:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 8:51 am
…’
============
haha.