Federal poll aggregates: Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy (open thread)

Two pollsters break down their recent federal polling by state, and in Newspoll’s case much else besides.

We can expect a lull in polling this week ahead of the budget, followed by an avalanche next week in its wake – which, according to Simon Benson of The Australian, is “expected” to follow upon an announcement by the Prime Minister next weekend of an election for either May 3 or May 10. In the absence of new federal voting intention results, two pollsters have produced detailed breakdowns of their recent polling aggregated from the start of the year, one being the especially extensive quarterly Newspoll aggregation in The Australian, the other encompassing results for the four largest states from Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review.

Newspoll has two-party results of 50-50 from New South Wales, unchanged from the previous quarterly aggregate, suggesting a Coalition swing of around 1.5% compared with the 2022 election result; 51-49 to Labor in Victoria, compared with 50-50 last quarter, a swing of around 4%; 57-43 to the Coalition in Queensland, a substantial move from the 53-47 result last quarter, a Coalition swing of around 3%; 54-46 to Labor in Western Australia, unchanged on last quarter for a swing of around 1%; and 50-50 in South Australia, after Labor led 53-47 last quarter, suggesting a Coalition swing of 4%. This combines results of three polls from a national sample of 3757, ranging from 271 for South Australia to 1149 for New South Wales. Also featured is an array of demographic detail that you can access by sifting through the BludgerTrack poll data feature, together with reams of further polling detail since the 2022 election.

Only primary votes were provided from Freshwater Strategy, but the results imply a Coalition lead of around 52-48 in New South Wales, a Labor lead of around 51-49 in Victoria, a Coalition lead of 54-46 in Queensland and a Labor lead of 56-44 in Western Australia. This combines three monthly poll results from a national sample of 3152, ranging from 318 for Western Australia to 947 for New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

456 comments on “Federal poll aggregates: Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy (open thread)”

Comments Page 9 of 10
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  1. As I called it earlier, swinging hard back to Labor. $1.90 each now. Jim about to put Labor in an unassailable position.

    Labor majority looking likely.

  2. ”
    gollsays:
    Monday, March 24, 2025 at 8:18 pm
    davidwhsays:
    Monday, March 24, 2025 at 7:39 pm
    [Looking like small Labor majority at present with the trend favoring Labor. Personally I think the Trump effect is working to the benefit of Labor.
    Next Newspoll should be interesting and confirm the Labor improvement.]

    The next step is the budget tomorrow, fiscally responsible again, consideration for the least well off and a surprise.
    The reaction from a less than significant media mob, having gone off early, now having to juggle their vowels.
    Then the next tranche of polling to complete a well planned lead up to the election.
    The reaction to the nuclear nonsense should have sent a clear message to the LNP about the leadership problems.
    The media, frightened by the ridiculous audacity of the nuclear nonsense didn’t have the cojones to call it.
    ”

    The media are either afraid or in cahoots with LNP because
    1. They are afraid Dutton will do what Trump did to media in USA, i.e. sideline them or become hostile towards. For example, Dutton never once stepped in ABC office when LNP was in power. He even said that They (ABC)are dead to me.
    2. They will not be on drip feed from LNP government
    3. Since LNP was in power for a long time after WW2, they are confident that ALP governments will not last for long.
    That is reason ‘they talk truth to the power ‘ when ALP is in power and remain either sycophantic or meek when LNP is in power.

    Australian MSM is HMV of LNP with a few exceptions.

  4. ”
    ScromoIIsays:
    Monday, March 24, 2025 at 8:27 pm
    So do you think Albo should wait until after Trump’s tariff announcements on April 2 before calling an election? Or should he visit Yarralumla this coming Sunday?
    ”

    H should wait until after April 2nd. What is the rush?

  5. Ven the point I was making about scomo is that the person even things that will be a majority Coalition government where everyone in the political sphere realized it’s going to be minority and at the moment it looks like it’s going to be a minority for labour I will repeat what someone on Reddit said if it was anyone else other than Peter Anthony would be f*****

  7. The public have linked Dutton Trump and Gina together, and not before time. The more stupid and deluded Trump gets the less votes Dutton will.

  8. ”
    citizensays:
    Monday, March 24, 2025 at 9:14 pm
    Will Dutton be tempted to emulate the Alberta Premier (Conservative) in calling on Trump to postpone any tariffs until after the election, to avoid giving any advantage to their political opponents?

    As the first day of the election campaign kicks off, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is facing criticism over comments made in an interview with a right-wing American news outlet.

    It happened earlier this month but is only now getting attention.

    Smith told syndicated news and commentary website Breitbart that she has asked U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to put tariffs on pause until after Canada’s federal election because the trade war is benefiting the Liberals in the polls.

    Drew Stremick reports on the premier’s comments and explains what’s causing concern.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9qI_-rkzD0
    ”

    I have a suspicion that someone from LNP are in Trump’s ear to postpone Tarriffs imposition on Australian products until after the election.
    I think Trump will not impose Tarriffs until after May federal election.

  9. Quentin Rountree,
    You’ve mentioned that statement from the Reddit subgroup a couple of times now, and to tell you the truth, I just don’t think that person is correct.

    Think about it. The PM against Angus Taylor? No contest. The PM wins hands down.
    The PM against Sussan Ley? Not that the Liberals would ever allow it. PM wins.
    PM against even Bridget Archer may be more of a contest but she hasn’t had the requisite experience yet to go up against him and win.
    Andrew Hastie? Would draw attention to his overt Christianity.

    Who else is there? You tell me.

  10. I awaiting the continuing presence of Barnaby Joyce in shadow cabinet to become an issue at some stage. He will become Cabinet Minster for Veteran Affairs in Dutton Government. Do we really want a drop down drunk getting cabinet briefings?

  11. Cat mama I feed the guy already wasn’t saying the leadership position is that they can’t get their act together unlike labour who is now have the momentum Hell they have no policies and they agreed to match the labours Medicare and pharmaceutical benefit scheme so I think that’s what they’re what are they made a point on the Guardian essential where it’s like someone said if there was anyone else other than Peter Anthony would be screwed so you know the referendum right that Peter was gonna have well people in the back benches had to tell Peter that was a stupid idea that’s what’s happening instead of focusing on winning the election which at the moment is probably unlikely like some of the crazys the focusing on stupid s*** sorry for the rambling but it wasn’t about the leadership it was more about the back room

  12. dave 850pm

    Overall, we have owned St Kilda, 162 wins to 61 losses.

    I have seen many of those 162 (losses) and 61 (wins) as a Saints supporter,
    but remarkably in finals it is (I think) – Collingwood 3, Draw 1, St.Kilda 6
    Grand Finals – Collingwood 1, Draw 1, St.Kilda 1

    That said, I expect Collingwood to finish top 6 this year and us to narrowly miss the finals again.

    And someone made a comment here in the wee hours of Sunday morning about why should we even worry about ball games at a time like this.

    My answer would be –

    I wake up every day and am compelled to first check the US news to see what new Trumpian disaster has unfolded while I slept. And I am really starting to feel genuine fear about what may happen to all our relatives and friends in the USA across Blue, Purple and Red states.

    So sport is a welcome diversion (for a few hours at least!)

  13. Ven about the media apparently kos the newspapers at the main television channels focusing more on the old people who already going to vote for the liberals honestly I find this a fascinating election because both parties have to fight through the centre because they can look at Trump and realize oh s*** we could be as I’m popular as him at the moment

  14. So the Canadian Conservatives are trying to con the electorate into voting for them by being mean and tricky about Trump’s Tariffs? How typical.

  15. Rocket rocket as a Queenslander I’m hoping the Brisbane Broncos do a little better this year but if the Brisbane lions get in well everyone’s a temporary Brisbane Lions fan in Queensland

  17. But cat mama that arranged guy said that the Canadian conservatives going to win because the polling were wrong in America which looking back it was neck and neck I like how this is neck and neck in Australia that’s why I laugh in anyone says that it’s either Labor or coalition

  18. Cat mama what does the Emoji mean but yeah the Coalition in fighting wasn’t about leadership it was about policy how apparently the nuclear power plants in Queensland don’t have enough water to make it not like go have a meltdown

  20. ScromoII says:
    Monday, March 24, 2025 at 2:53 pm

    In your dreams HWP

    In the USA probably 45-48% of the electorate is ROCK SOLID behind Trump. In Australia, a sizeable proportion of the electorate, probably not much less than that, are fully supportive of Trump’s actions and policies. It is only the Left that deludes itself that it isn’t the case

    ————————————————————

    Yes and I guess it’s the same in Canada where Trump’s popularity is a ROCK SOLID 15 per cent of the electorate.

    I guess that explains why the Trump-supporting Conservatives are dropping like flies. And Trump’s popularity is such that the Liberals, who were on less than 20 per cent are now more than 40 per cent.

    You’ve got to hand it to Donald, turning a Conservative landslide into a majority government for the Liberals who were burnt toast before he started ranting.

  22. American flag at war memorial replaced with Trump flag

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/3/23/2312015/-American-flag-replaced-at-war-memorial-with-Trump-flag?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “Rockland, ME:

    Someone took down the American flag at a war memorial and replaced it with a Trump train flag. As reported in Midcoast Villager:

    An American flag was stolen from a Civil War memorial flagpole in Rockland sometime before noon on Saturday, March 22, and replaced with a “Trump Train” flag.

    An activist group demonstrating in Chapman Park, on the corner of Park and Main streets, noticed the flag and alerted the Rockland Police Department, took down the political flag and replaced it with an American flag which had been brought to the gathering.

    “Stealing that flag is an insult to the city,” said veteran and American Legion Post 1 member Dave Soulin during a phone interview. “That’s really a shame.”

  23. beguiledagain bro do you realise the person you’re talking too is probably a troll because he does realize that trump’s not popular here he has a 60% not favorable hell that was a story in Brisbane about a guy that made a Trump Cafe in a bank robbed him so I don’t know where these people getting their Trump has massive supported Australia

  26. USAHeck of a Job, DOG-E (IRS estimates DOGE has lost half a trillion dollars so far!) UPDATED

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/3/22/2311971/-Heck-of-a-Job-DOG-E-IRS-estimates-DOGE-has-lost-the-Fed-Gov-half-a-trillion-dollars-so-far?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “Josh Marshall reports from Talking Points Memo:

    IRS Predicts DOGE Lost Half a Trillion Dollars for the USA

    The Post reports today that the IRS’s internal projections estimate that the DOGE-driven disruptions to the IRS since the inauguration are on track to have reduced tax receipts by more than $500 billion by April 15th. This, to be clear, is not a final tally.

    TPM
    “

  27. Did I miss something?
    Thought I heard Albo on ABC news saying the election ‘Will be in May’……
    Now there is a surprise after all the dead duck comments from the those on the right – for months now.
    How wrong can one be so many times?

  31. Rocket Rocketsays:

    That said, I expect Collingwood to finish top 6 this year and us to narrowly miss the finals again.

    And someone made a comment here in the wee hours of Sunday morning about why should we even worry about ball games at a time like this.

    So sport is a welcome diversion (for a few hours at least!)
    _____________________
    I expect St Kilda to be fighting for 7th or 8th spot and maybe get there.

    Sport is a welcome diversion. I gave up Tennis in the late 90s. Cricket after the 2005 Ashes. All I have is Football now.

  33. Hmmm Albo is not popular he is toxic and let’s see how 10 years of deficits go down tomorrow onwards.

    China is a basketcase Trump will be glad to kick it whilst it’s down big time on April 2.

    Musk doing a great job clearing out duds we need DOGE in Australia but of course Labor is the political party controlled by unions and they put union ties ahead of the public interest.

  35. Bludgeoned Westie at 5.58 pm, nadia88 at 7.14 pm

    Don’t assume Labor will lose Lyons without taking the trouble to compare Rebecca White with the outgoing Labor MP, who had a poor reputation.

    Nadia, don’t confuse Katie Allen’s failings as a candidate and MP with Rebecca White’s difficulties as an opposition leader. Apples & oranges.

    Only two signs visible on trip from Hobart to Orford, one for White at Midway Point in a commuter zone, and one with a profusely smiling Susie Bowers claiming to be a “fresh voice” somewhere on east coast road.

    Obviously the impact of corflutes is overrated, as D. Rowe points out.

    What is clear from previous Tassie elections is that White is well known and broadly liked in Lyons. If you could ask Bowers, she would like to be running against any other Laborite.

  37. Not sure why major parties run candidates that have lost recently aka White,Mia Davies and also others like Constance and Katie Allen.

    Lots of running and losing in that lot!

  39. pied piper says:
    Monday, March 24, 2025 at 11:02 pm
    Hmmm Albo is not popular he is toxic and let’s see how 10 years of deficits go down tomorrow onwards.

    China is a basketcase Trump will be glad to kick it whilst it’s down big time on April 2.

    Musk doing a great job clearing out duds we need DOGE in Australia but of course Labor is the political party controlled by unions and they put union ties ahead of the public interest.

    ———

    So according to you the oligarchs will put the public interest ahead of their own. It’s an absurd thing to believe.

  40. Newman knew how to break a promise & although he agrees that a new stadium is requisite, he’s not a fan of having it built in Victoria Park. I agree with him. Anyway, the extent of Crusafull’s pre-election duplicity will be known tomorrow.

  41. Me thinks one of the reasons major parties are on the nose is stupidity in candidate selection plenty of young blood about give em a go!

    Clean outs and refresh not enough of it.

    Nutty comments about Trump and Musk on here they are wealthy and are not in it for the money .

    West Australian reporting tonight Kalamunda has fallen after the recount today libs claimed victory says recount showed they have won.82 votes.

  43. pied piper says:
    Monday, March 24, 2025 at 11:31 pm

    Nutty comments about Trump and Musk on here they are wealthy and are not in it for the money .

    ————

    Please keep rolling out the one-liners.

  45. davesays:
    Monday, March 24, 2025 at 10:59 pm

    [Sport is a welcome diversion. I gave up Tennis in the late 90s. Cricket after the 2005 Ashes. All I have is Football now.]

    The down trodden, an underclass, deprived of the only distraction from the drudgery of mindless hours working in the misery of the political factory producing trinkets for the wealthy, the privileged, the over lords from their fancy houses and even fancier football parks.
    A cry from the heart, the hurt and humiliation, as the underclass stick together proclaiming:-
    “Good old Collingwood forever,
    They know how to play the game.

    Side by side we stick together,
    To uphold the Magpies name.

    See the barrackers a shouting,
    As all barrackers should.

    Oh, the premiership’s a cakewalk,
    For the good old Collingwood.”

  46. “Not sure why major parties run candidates that have lost recently aka White,Mia Davies and also others like Constance and Katie Allen.”

    Mia Davies was a sitting parliamentarian until she resigned from State Parliament to run in the Federal election in Bullwinkle. She was quite popular as far as Nats go, and is in with a good chance in Bullwinkle in May.

    PP is an idiot.

  47. MAGA trying to say Musks nazi salute is a Roman salute( hail Caesar comes to mind)so I guess torched tesla cars are Roman candles.

  49. Err dumbo under her leadership with libs nats lost to McGowan.Then deserted saying she had nothing left in the tank and then pops up federal scene suddenly with a lot in the tank.
    Once again if major parties reward this behaviour then their vote will continue to plummet.

    Shhh do not mention the vote bias she had that favoured the nats before McGowan changed it

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