The now weekly YouGov poll records a 50-50 result after two weeks with Labor in their nose in front, from primary votes of Labor 31% (steady), Coalition 37% (up one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 7% (down half). Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 42% and down one to 47%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 45-39 to 45-40. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1500.
There is also a new federal poll from RedBridge Group showing Labor leading 51-49, after the Coalition led 51.5-48.5 at the poll from early last month. Labor is up one on the primary vote to 32% and the Coalition is down three to 37%, with the Greens up one to 12%. The gap favouring the Coalition on firmness of voting intention has narrowed, 61% of Coalition voters professing themselves solid, down four, compared with a steady 51% for Labor voters.
The RedBridge poll also finds 51% holding that the country is “generally headed in the wrong direction” compared with 29% for the right direction. Fifty-three per cent agreed with the statement “the Albanese government’s renewable energy policies and timelines are pushing the costs of energy through the roof”, with only 23% disagreeing, and 38% agreed that “if Australia were to produce nuclear energy it would be cheaper for consumers like me than renewable energy”, with 28% disagreeing. A question on whether Australia should be “more assertive“ or “do more to build a positive relationship” with China produced an even result of 39% and 38% respectively. The poll was conducted March 3 to 11 from a sample of 2007.
DemosAU has published federal voting intention numbers from the poll it conducted during the last week of the state election campaign, which proved highly accurate with respect to the result (Labor 43% compared with a result of 41.5%, Liberal 30% compared with 28.2%, Nationals 5% compared 5.3%, Greens 11% compared with 10.8%). The federal numbers are Labor 36% (36.8% at the 2022 election), Coalition 38% (34.8%), Greens 11% (12.5%), One Nation 6% (4.0%), with Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred (55.0-45.0). The poll was conducted March 4 and 5 from a sample of 1126.
nadia88 at 9.18 pm
“he’s got to get his budget legislated”
Why? In the very unlikely event of Dutton winning he won’t keep the Labor budget. There is obviously not time to get the budget through the Senate. It is a symbolic exercise.
One of the Tory-inclined journos on Insiders said at the end that the Libs are worried Albo will call the election on Friday for a 6 week campaign.
There are risks in a longer campaign but perhaps less due to the holidays.
Re Curtin, B. Westie is correct. There is nothing in the WA election results that would make Ms Chaney fret. The Libs underperformed in the leafy bits of her electorate. She is better known now than in 2022, and the marginal victory for WA’s own clown Basil will have been very reassuring for her.
Albo has been very pro women so not sure what else this government could do but women have never really leaned to labor.
Kirksdrake – There is only going to be one shot at a final stand. Make it on the Enabling Act and not some mere political games. Because this is it – the game is over for US politics for the foreseeable future – and it better to go out with a bang then a whimper.
nadia88 at 9.18 pm
With respect, passing the budget is not Albo’s priority; it is winning power so that budget could be passed.
“he’s got to get his budget legislated”
Why? In the very unlikely event of Dutton winning he won’t keep the Labor budget. There is obviously not time to get the budget through the Senate. It is a symbolic exercise.
One of the Tory-inclined journos on Insiders said at the end that the Libs are worried Albo will call the election on Friday for a 6 week campaign.
There are risks in a longer campaign but perhaps less due to the holidays.
Re Curtin, B. Westie is correct. There is nothing in the WA election results that would make Ms Chaney fret. The Libs underperformed in the leafy bits of her electorate. She is better known now than in 2022, and the marginal victory for WA’s own clown Basil will have been very reassuring for her.
The Oz…several months out of date. Maybe interesting as a survey of the past. On 26 January the game was re-set. Voters really do not like it. They will vote against Trumpism….and that means voting against Dutton. It’s never good for an Opposition to be the issue. But right now they are the proxies for one of the really huge issues: for Trump. As in Canada so in Australia. The Reactionaries will be smashed.
It’s the quarterly aggregates from Newspoll, but the tables aren’t in the online reports that I can see. I’ll add the data to the BludgerTrack poll data feature when it’s available — along with the similar aggregates the Fin Review had from Freshwater Strategy on the weekend for the four largest states. Simon Benson reckons “an election (is) expected to be called this coming weekend for May 3 or May 10”.
Quentin R
If the Liberals do win I won’t be that thrilled that Labor has let some of their supporters down after one term, but for some of the superfans like C@t, I’ll be cheering wildly 🙂
*night
No worries Dr.D.
So election called next weekend, and the Budget legislated afterwards.
You & Centre on the same page
Mexicanbeemer at 9.59 pm
Women have leaned to Labor mostly since Gillard won very narrowly in 2010. William can possibly provide details. I am just on a phone now.
The political science term is gender gap. I think William’s supervisor D. Denemark wrote an article about it. Search: Gillard, Denemark, gender gap, 2010 election.
Bludgeoned Westie – great round up.
No it wasn’t. It is clearly the analysis of someone who is biased towards the Coalition winning the election and is bending the numbers towards their desired conclusion.
Bludgeoned Westie can see Robertson from his back door. And he has just as much clue about it as Sarah Palin would have.
Not to mention the myriad of other Labor-held seats he magics away from Labor. Just because. So many words, so much Post Truth analysis.
Elon Musk’s desperate new move as Tesla attacks continue
Over 80 Teslas have been damaged in yet another attack on the Elon Musk-run car company, as tensions soar over his role in the White House.
https://www-news-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.news.com.au/technology/elon-musks-desperate-new-move-as-tesla-attacks-continue/news-story/7707b08815694efce0de522add3138bb?amp=&_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17427214641011&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.news.com.au%2Ftechnology%2Felon-musks-desperate-new-move-as-tesla-attacks-continue%2Fnews-story%2F7707b08815694efce0de522add3138bb
Centre if the news poll leads correct it seemed that none of the Majors to get into majority government if both major parties are losing women voters and they’re going to the greens and independence who does that hurt more probably coalition and then labour
It’s not The Oz but here’s a link to The Nightly reporting on the results in the Newspoll state breakdown.
https://thenightly.com.au/politics/newspoll-young-female-voters-an-issue-for-both-albo-and-dutton-as-aust-set-for-hung-parliament-c-18134346
The government is home and hosed. Dutton has left it too late to release a semblance of a policy, the momentum has shifted and will only continue doing so.
Dutton is a policy lightweight, he always has been. He’s never across detail and he’s too lazy to do the hard work needed to grab people’s attention. It comes for the sort of entitlement most coppers have – they think they can tell people what to say/ do/ think without repercussions. He’s wrong. People know he’s a monstrous lightweight, a mental midget.
I was with Albo today. He said, people are starting to tell him they’re doing pretty well again, and as he said from the time they were elected, “you need to be kicking with the wind in the 4th quarter, not the second or third.”
No one remembers who was in front in the Melbourne Cup when they went past the winning post the first time.
On a personal note, I believe Insiders should have Angus Taylor on every weekend between now and the election. What a complete and utter buffoon.
Quick question actually about the Western Australia aren’t the Labour Party doing very well federally kos set its Victoria’s that’s a battleground state but even then got every go to the Liberal Party that’s why a broken record the coalition needed at least a 56 to 46 to have a chance of getting back into government and also if I was a liberal I’d probably want labored to win this one so people don’t brush us with the b******* because look what happened in America people are getting angry at the republicans should have voted for them in the first place but they’re starting to get angry at them
OK, I have some figures for the newspoll aggregates.
Comparison figures are from the Oct-Dec period
* ALP 31 (down 1). This seems a bit surprising. Thought it would tick up.
* LNP 39 (steady)
* GRN 12 (up 1)
* PHON 7 (steady)
* Others/Indies 11 (steady)
2PP 51-49 (LNP increase of 1 for the first 3 months of this year)
Preferred PM Albo 45, Dutton 40, NFI 15
Albo net sat = minus 18
Dutton net sat = minus 11
18-34 year age group (ie: younger millenials & gen Z)
* ALP 31%
* LNP 28%
* GRN 28%
Further details…
Labor is trouble in Vic, and in NSW, Gilmore and Bennelong will revert Liberal.
No Favour at 4.46 pm
Don’t neglect Labor’s prospects in Leichhardt due to Entsch retiring. He has a big personal vote. The Labor candidate is a sporty type with reach.
Dr Doolittlesays:
Sunday, March 23, 2025 at 10:08 pm
Mexicanbeemer at 9.59 pm
Women have leaned to Labor mostly since Gillard won very narrowly in 2010. William can possibly provide details. I am just on a phone now.
The political science term is gender gap. I think William’s supervisor D. Denemark wrote an article about it. Search: Gillard, Denemark, gender gap, 2010 election
———
Yep but the liberals have historically been more dependant on winning the women vote but the liberals have become more blokey losing women in the process.
* ALP 31 (down 1). This seems a bit surprising. Thought it would tick up.
* LNP 39 (steady)
* GRN 12 (up 1)
* PHON 7 (steady)
* Others/Indies 11 (steady)
So, basically a Nothingburger. 1 from Labor to The Greens…which comes back to Labor about 9 times out of 10 when the choice is the Anti Trans/Anti Abortion/Anti WFH Coalition.
Plus, this is a rear view mirror look that does not take into account Labor’s improvement and Dutton’s missteps over the first 3 months of the year. So this is of historical interest only.
Either 50-50 or 51-49 to Labor, in other words.
Just with that 18-34 year age group.
I only mentioned it as I believe they will represent around 25% of voters this election.
They’ll overtake the “Gen X” voting bloc, but not the Boomers.
I stand corrected on that percentage, but I think it is close to the mark.
B. S. Fairman @ #1103 Sunday, March 23rd, 2025 – 10:00 pm
Yeah, the French thought that about their Maginot Line in 1940, and the Germans knew that’s what they thought, so they simply bypassed them until the “final stand” got closer and closer to Paris until the end when they just broke and decided to give up everything and become full collaborationists.
Honestly n88 like cat mama said this is nothing burger if anything the coalition should be smashing Labor also I’m going to expect a hung parliament with an even bigger cross bench
nadia88 at 10.16 pm
Rear-view aggregates are of little help when there has been a poll shift.
Labor have been aware all along that they have marginal battles in NSW. Swings in NSW will vary quite a bit.
Constance is favourite in Gilmore but not a strong campaigner. He may struggle to get enough votes in Nowra and Kiama, and even in Moruya.
If I was naming the next thread it would be, ‘Much Ado About Nothing’. 😐
Quentin, yeah it seems Labor’s vote is holding up fairly well in WA, I think the relative popularity of the state govt would be a factor in assisting the federal vote. I don’t think people really like Dutton anywhere whose constant dogwhistling seems to be an attempt to hide an almost total policy void but Albo isnt well liked either and in places like Victoria state Labor seems quite on the nose which can’t be helping them.
So what you saying William in Gilmore and Bennelong will revert Liberal is 50/50 at best
Again watching The Big Short on SBS, a movie I have now watched on multiple occasions it being scarily factual
Unlike some of the projections crap put on this site by anonymous “contributors”
In fact, I will change that to absolute crap
Why waste your time?
In terms of a Budget deficit no doubt the Tories will jump up and down putting that under them there will again be a surplus to pay down debt
Except what did the ALP inherit from 10 years of Tory government? (Noting there was the need to survive the economy during a Global Pandemic – by forcing people to withdraw from their superannuation accruals whilst Company Balance Sheets grew fat – or fatter)
The measure is always debt to GDP, where there is a discipline as to percentage adhered to by both parties so the question is beneficiaries – beneficiaries who include aged pensioners and others in receipt of required government assistance either temporary or ongoing – plus defence, infrastructural, community engagement etc etc etc (look at the government departments and their responsibilities)
In times of economic stress it is the responsibility of government (and the RBA) to give support for the period of that stress (so now with post Global Pandemic recovery impeded by Global inflation accentuated by global events impacting food and energy prices)
Being careful as to largesse such as to not impede the efforts to reduce inflation to within band
The upshot of this in these times of high personal debt (The Big Short) is to provide assistance by targeting areas for support to households requiring support (noting that wages growth is exceeding inflation after a hiatus of 10 years so there is relief there augmented by tax cuts across the board so not to high income earners exclusively)
Given the government, taking advice, will prudently deliver which is their record I would expect a Budget well received across the suburbs
We already have support with such as price of medicines, cost of health, cost of child care et al
And, inflation now within band, reducing interest rates (forgetting those with money in the bank which is many)
So who disagrees with this synopsis and, if so, why?
And in Victoria we continue to see an anti infrastructure attack by the Tories and their media – plus the perennial law and order
These works are required and are proceeding at pace as travelling around Melbourne and the State attest
Once the amenity replaces the disruptions the worth of these projects will be appreciated and the cost (to GDP) to government will be a non issue including because of where debt to GDP is
Honestly MJ anyone expecting any major party to win majority on election night is going to look like an idiot I still think it’s gonna be Labor minority because at the moment the poll need to swing greatly towards the coalition to actually win them being at what 39 primary even though we know that there’s a bunch of seats that probably already gone to vote Liberal and National thinking that’s why Peter is going on this security stuff he probably knows he’s not making ground
nadia88,
You are still trying to project state dissatisfaction onto federal voting intention. A big mistake for any psephologist to make. Not to mention projecting the past through a future lens. As Dr Doolittle has correctly pointed out, as have I, there’s been a poll shift, and in this instance, past is not prologue.
MJ yeah but the problem is putting all your eggs in Victoria you may get a couple of seats off labour but you also may get seats it away from you by independence that’s why wondering why Peter is losing Momentum now through he hasn’t had momentum because if he did it be like 2022 where the first news poll was 56 to 44 but here it’s 51 to 49 wonder if the campaign manages in his camp saying you’re not going to win this election I bet you’re gonna win some seats back but you need to so you can be instructed distance dext time if Peter decides to run for leader again
Is the poll shift Labor winning 90 seats?
Cat mama yeah because I’m always wondering why n88 does that like if that was the case said when Queensland Labor was it was government since 2015 to 2024 it would have been a labor stronghold federally I mean people may hate Victoria labor state government but they might like the federal Labor government
No Dave no one’s expected Labor to win 90 seats but people are expected Labor to To be in a better position than People assumed But take your uh Crazy Labour Hacks to say it’s got to be 90 seats for them elsewhere
Vic Labor’s main problem is incumbency. It has held government long enough for people to get itchy about living in a One party state.
Quentin Rountree says:
Sunday, March 23, 2025 at 10:24 pm
Honestly n88 like cat mama said this is nothing burger if anything the coalition should be smashing Labor also I’m going to expect a hung parliament with an even bigger cross bench
=================
It’s more a “baked in” nothing burger perhaps.
Quentin Rountreesays:
Sunday, March 23, 2025 at 10:35 pm
No Dave no one’s expected Labor to win 90 seats but people are expected Labor to To be in a better position than People assumed But take your uh Crazy Labour Hacks to say it’s got to be 90 seats for them elsewhere
_______________
well Briefly’s is now talking about the Liberals getting ‘smashed’.
Dr Doolittle
Gillard, Denemark, gender gap, 2010 election
—————-
Thanks for the article. It looks interesting.
c@t 10.28pm.
Am I?
Where?
baked in nothingburger. I like it.
@Steve777says: Sunday, March 23, 2025 at 9:09 pm
Rn I have Bradfield as a LIB retain mainly bc I haven’t seen any indications that Teals will expand and also because Gisele Kapterian is the best candidate the Liberals could’ve nominated for the seat due to her background as a woman who’s moderate Liberal with the backing of a popular former Premier Gladys Berejiklian. She would definitely appeal to moderate Liberal voters and Doctor’s Wives.
I’m not writing off Boele in this seat considering that polling suggests that people are tired of the two parties, Boele actively campaigning in Bradfield as it’s “Shadow Member” since 2022 and Paul Fletcher’s retirement (which gets rid of LIB incumbency bonus and indicates that Boele has a high chance of gaining the seat)
If the Teals were to gain any seats, I think Bradfield is the likeliest (followed by Wannon, then Cowper)
HOWEVER, the reason why I put Bradfield on my prediction as a seat whose status I’m reconsidering has to do with a discussion on the Bradfield thread on the Tally Room. Andrew Yin, a former Liberal member (former head of a local branch who failed to get Liberal nomination for Strathfield) is running as an Independent in Bradfield. What’s significant about him is that he put Boele above the Liberals in his preference card and there’s a possibility that he is popular with the Asian community (particularly Chinese) since his signs are seen everywhere in Asian dominated areas like Chatswood. Afaik the Asian community don’t have any opinions on Kapterian or Boele, so assuming Yin is actually popular with the Asian community, his preferences might be key to Boele’s victory in Bradfield.
NOTE: Reason why I don’t say he’s popular with the Asian community is bc judging a candidate’s popularity based off of signage alone is very dubious + booths in Chatswood are traditional Labor-Liberal contests so idk if Yin could break that pattern.
Also according to Anglo Election Insights and Aussies Elect, a lot of bureaucrats live in Bradfield so Dutton’s recent policies against bureaucrats like forcing them back into the office might push them away from LIB. Even though it’s been backtracked, bureaucrats are typically educated and they won’t forget that Dutton proposed such a policy, especially 2 months from the election.
@C@tmommasays: Sunday, March 23, 2025 at 10:08 pm
I think I forgot to put Robertson in the list of seats whose status I’m reconsidering but assuming Labor’s polling improves and Labor sandbags this seat, I think Labor has chance at retaining Robertson. The only backdoor thing I can see about Robertson is that Gordon Reid is a popular MP, which is a huge reason on why I think Labor could retain this seat.
As for the “myriad of other Labor-held seats” I arbitrarily magic away from Labor for da lolz, most of these seats are already held on razor thin margins (e.g., Lyons, Lingiari, Gilmore, Bennelong) or have outer suburban demographic that is heavily suffering from cost of living crisis which are prime ground for Liberals (McEwen, Paterson)
Aston is a seat Labor won off from their highest point of support back in 2023 and is widely seen as a Liberal gain. The only way I could see Labor winning this seat is if Mary Doyle is active and well liked (which is what I hear from people in Aston)
The only predictions made on shakey ground is Chisholm, an Eastern Melbourne seat and Robertson, all of which could be turned back to ALP retain in April’s prediction assuming polling further improves for Labor, especially in VIC (which was why I wanted that Resolve Poll)
Quentin Rountree,
Point well-made about Queensland Labor V Federal Labor results in Queensland. Some people just don’t get that voters are able to distinguish between the 2 levels of government when casting their vote.
Listen Dave if you’re talking about Scott that that Scott he’s always optimistic the most reasonable of us assumed it was going to be minority government also n88 nothing is baked in because if it was well Coalition would probably wish they were at a better place at the moment
Quentin I think you’re right in suggesting a minority Labor govt is most likely although I think the orange buffoon has inadvertently improved their chances of maybe obtaining a majority. People can see that Dutton and his keeper Gina wants to imitate that despicable man.
Bludgeoned Westie. You are being warned about magicking away labor seats for the last time. Any more sorcery from you and that’s it for you my friend.
Bludgeoned Westie the problem with them getting liberal moderates is that are they actually gonna be moderates as it are they gonna moderate Peter’s stupid s*** oh they’re just gonna go along with it that’s why the teals got popular people could trust them because they’re independent and they won’t throw a party line
As for the “myriad of other Labor-held seats” I arbitrarily magic away from Labor for da lolz, most of these seats are already held on razor thin margins (e.g., Lyons, Lingiari, Gilmore, Bennelong) or have outer suburban demographic that is heavily suffering from cost of living crisis which are prime ground for Liberals (McEwen, Paterson)
Bludgeoned Westie,
And this is where your analysis is also skewed towards a perception promoted by RW media and the Coalition. The ‘Cost of Living Crisis’ is a time which has effectively passed, as consumer sentiment figures have been showing. And which the Interest Rate cut has effected too. Also, there are stats which show that discretionary spending on concerts, restaurants, holidays etc are up. The low rate of unemployment is what is supporting this fact.
Hence, to ascribe results based upon this ‘Cost of Living Crisis’ metric at this point in the electoral cycle is misleading and erroneous I believe.
When he goes now does not matter after the other week.
VIC not going as badly and SA is not doing as well a strange quarterly Newspoll.
Still think the long term trend will smash labor federally.
Muslim vote who are they preferencing? And any polling done on them as yet?
Teals in trouble.
MJ the problem with with Peter is that trump’s not popular in Australia 60% don’t like him that’s why I was so strange when he decided to become trump-like we’re a center nation that likes our welfare as for Gina well let’s be honest want to be the first time she tried to do something and backfired on her
The budget will be well received, Dutton will blunder and the LNP expose themselves before the newly configured Reserve Bank Board(s) will meet on the 31st and announce further good news on the 1st.
The second week of sitting will be a disaster as the representatives fall over themselves to be amongst the voters.
The voters will be given a chance to endorse the Labor budget at the election and Dutton and the leftovers will continue to stumble .
There is next to no chance Dutton and the LNP will form a government.
The LNP have lost the narrative, the Australian is throwing a very flimsy condiment on a failed meal.
Benson is most probably wrong and the 17th May remains the preferred election date.
The upcoming polls will indicate only one salient points, just how unsuccessful Dutton and the LNP have been in promoting themselves despite the inflated support of the media.