Federal polls: YouGov and RedBridge Group (open thread)

Two new federal polls offer further indications that Labor is in a stronger position than it was at the start of the year.

The now weekly YouGov poll records a 50-50 result after two weeks with Labor in their nose in front, from primary votes of Labor 31% (steady), Coalition 37% (up one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 7% (down half). Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 42% and down one to 47%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 45-39 to 45-40. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1500.

There is also a new federal poll from RedBridge Group showing Labor leading 51-49, after the Coalition led 51.5-48.5 at the poll from early last month. Labor is up one on the primary vote to 32% and the Coalition is down three to 37%, with the Greens up one to 12%. The gap favouring the Coalition on firmness of voting intention has narrowed, 61% of Coalition voters professing themselves solid, down four, compared with a steady 51% for Labor voters.

The RedBridge poll also finds 51% holding that the country is “generally headed in the wrong direction” compared with 29% for the right direction. Fifty-three per cent agreed with the statement “the Albanese government’s renewable energy policies and timelines are pushing the costs of energy through the roof”, with only 23% disagreeing, and 38% agreed that “if Australia were to produce nuclear energy it would be cheaper for consumers like me than renewable energy”, with 28% disagreeing. A question on whether Australia should be “more assertive“ or “do more to build a positive relationship” with China produced an even result of 39% and 38% respectively. The poll was conducted March 3 to 11 from a sample of 2007.

DemosAU has published federal voting intention numbers from the poll it conducted during the last week of the state election campaign, which proved highly accurate with respect to the result (Labor 43% compared with a result of 41.5%, Liberal 30% compared with 28.2%, Nationals 5% compared 5.3%, Greens 11% compared with 10.8%). The federal numbers are Labor 36% (36.8% at the 2022 election), Coalition 38% (34.8%), Greens 11% (12.5%), One Nation 6% (4.0%), with Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred (55.0-45.0). The poll was conducted March 4 and 5 from a sample of 1126.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,183 thoughts on “Federal polls: YouGov and RedBridge Group (open thread)”

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  1. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, March 21, 2025 at 9:31 am
    This is the Administration that that low life pied piper continuously praises here:

    The Trump administration deported a Venezuelan professional soccer player and youth soccer coach with no criminal record to an El Salvadoran prison known for torture and abusive conditions, according to an affidavit filed with the court and confirmed by a family member’s post on Facebook in Venezuela.

    The family only discovered that their loved one, Jerce Reyes Barrios, had been renditioned to El Salvador when they saw him in viral videos posted by the Trump administration, in which it celebrated what it said was the mass deportation of violent members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua.

    https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/venezuelan-professional-goaltender-rendition-deported-dhs

    How FITH do you have to be to support that monster Trump?
    ”

    There is a saying “monsters support monsters”

  5. C@tmommma

    ‪Aaron Reichlin-Melnick‬ ‪@reichlinmelnick.bsky.social‬
    ·
    9h
    Reply to Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
    Here is the ICE policy I mentioned above. Note that a person can be declared a “gang associate” based only on a SINGLE “Gang membership identification criteria.”

    Mr. Reyes Barrios’ case is about the perfect example of how this identification process can go wrong.

    https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2vtbmhmrwzbqcfv4we4uxzzt/bafkreiai44usyn2ih7mug7egqfhpcwsnxpcsnvoolbuq663ovu2kcj543m@jpeg

    https://www.ice.gov/doclib/foia/policy/handbook_HSI_18-03_08.13.2018.pdf

  6. The federal lib/nats and propaganda media units, have been personal attacking Prime minister and other ministers in the federal labor government non stop in the last few weeks

    Shows the federal lib/nats and propaganda media units know they will be remaining in opposition and cemented on the back foot with no way getting off the back foot

  7. Given “woke” has had a slight run this morning, here is an article from the Australian Population Research Insititute regarding the divide between the “elites & the electorate”.
    This appears to be a follow up from a report they prepared in Jan.

    Page 7, has some polling data off a sample of 3023, however the polling is from Dec 2024.
    This polling may possibly be linked to “Wave 2” from the A.N.U. polis series.

    Link: https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2025-03/apo-nid330014.pdf

  9. laughtongsays:
    Friday, March 21, 2025 at 9:20 am
    The local Murdoch having had some success in forcing Jacinta Allan into changing bail laws is now running a series on lockdown legacy.
    Obviously aiming to get Dan on that issue if they can.
    _____________________
    How pathetic from Labor to have the word ‘tough’ in the name of the legislation. Real kindergarten stuff there.
    Glad that was removed by the Libs and the crossbench before passing.

  10. The Guardian Poll Tracker was updated on Weds, and reflects the tightening in polls since late Feb.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2025/mar/18/australian-election-2025-polls-today-opinion-poll-tracker-essential-newspoll-2pp-party-labor-coalition-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-latest

    They are providing a “range” figure now for their primaries.

    Their headline 2PP suggests a 3.1% swing to the Coalition. I believe it peaked at 5.5% around 17-Jan, so this has tightened significantly over the past 2 months with a rapid tightening since 23-Feb.
    Their tracker is current to this weeks Essential Report, so doesn’t include Redbridge or YouGov

  11. Fixed four year terms runs into two major problems.
    One is how does it affect the senate – 8 year terms for senators is just too long.
    The other is the double dissolution trigger. This in the constitution as well and would therefore need to be changed or worked around.

  13. The Wombatsays:
    Friday, March 21, 2025 at 7:28 am
    I think we are seeing a Trump effect, and it’s only going to get stronger over the remaining time before the election. I think Dutton has blown it by looking too trumpy a few months ago, under instructions from Gina Rinehart. He is clearly trying to walk it back, but it’s too late and the electorate doesn’t buy this kind of sudden vacillating on “vibe”

    ——

    Yep agree don’t think the drag of the orange lunatic isn’t fully baked into the polling yet and it’s hard to imagine how the LNP improve from here given Dutts admiration for him as a big thinker and deal maker LMAO.

  14. I’d just like to point out that it’s not a law of the universe that fixed terms have to be four years. It would be possible (on my non-lawyer understanding) to legislate for fixed terms of three years without breaching the constitution, provided the provisions for double dissolutions are not contradicted.

    Something like “Each election will be held on the first Saturday in May which is nearest to three years since the previous election, unless the provisions for a DD are met.” Plus some details about how to stop ‘nearest to three years’ going over the maximum three year lifetime of a parliament.

  16. I’m not a supporter of Fixed Terms. Look how long the Brits had to wait before they could dump a clearly poor and shambolic government.

    Or, to put it another way, the American way of an election every 2 years for Congress is clearly too short an interval. It keeps their politicians in ‘please the electorate’ and campaign mode virtually indefinitely.
    At the other extreme is countries like Britain where they have obviously taken it too far with 5 year terms.

    So my choice is for a term which lasts between 3 and 4 years with an election in the gift of the Prime Minister to determine the date of the election. As far as Senate Terms go then they should be 6 years as we have them now but with the variation being that half the Senators are up for election when the PM calls the election. Which may mean that some of them get to sit for longer than 6 years but it is not definitive. So, a minimum of 6 years and a maximum and up to 8 if the PM goes the full 4 year term twice, which would be extremely unlikely as governments know that they can wear out their welcome with a restive electorate.

  17. yabbasays:
    Friday, March 21, 2025 at 10:32 am

    I’m pathetic
    ________________________
    No Yabba your scotological.

  20. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-mark-carney-expected-to-call-snap-election-for-april-28-sources-say/

    Prime Minister Mark Carney is poised to call a snap federal election Sunday for an expected vote on April 28, two sources say, kicking off a campaign that is almost certain to focus on U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and his talk of making Canada the 51st state.

    The Liberals, Conservatives and NDP already have booked campaign planes and buses, and their war rooms are set up in the expectation of the Sunday election call.

    The Liberal Party has also recruited a number of high-profile candidates, including former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson and former CTV television host Evan Solomon, the two sources said. One of the sources said former Quebec finance minister Carlos Leitão will also run for the Liberals.

    A final call on the April 28 vote will be made by Mr. Carney, the sources said.

  21. The ALP will be rooing the call to delay the election due to Cyclone Alfred. I guess you play disaster politics at some point it will play against you.

  22. The Canadian election will be a useful case study for Labor in terms of honing their messaging around Dutton/Trump

  24. If Carney loses, would it make him the PM of the shortest tenure in Canadian history?

    It would make him the Cicada of Canada, who spent his whole life as a Liberal Party grub and emerged as Prime Minister in spring for about as long as a mayfly.

  26. ScromoII – Yes, Most people think Kim Campbell is currently Canada’s shortest serving PM at 132 days, but the record is held by Charles Tupper who held office for 69 days in 1896. He was also the oldest PM they had, turning 77 during his term in office (making him younger than Trump).

  27. Ante Meridiansays:
    Friday, March 21, 2025 at 10:42 am
    C@t,

    Yes, we obviously don’t want politicians constantly trying to please the electorate in a democracy.

    Which is NOT what I said at all. But hey, whatever floats your boat about me, AM. 😐

  28. BSF: To be fair, 77 was probably a lot older in that era (and closer to death) than it is today.

    Robert Menzies was 72 when he retired and John Howard was 68 when he lost the 2007 election. If it wasn’t for the vacuous self-aggrandizement of Krudd, he might have broken the Australian record.

  29. The Wombat

    “We need to be talking urgently to the British, French and Germans. I have been a huge supporter of AUKUS, but I think we need to walk away and hop on board with Europe and the Japanese ASAP. Like yesterday. It’s only going to get worse after Trump.”
    ———————————————————-
    The concerns re F35s obviously apply to US supply of SSNs under AUKUS. There is no “kill switch” on SSNs, which operate quite independently. However there are several ways a hostile future POTUS could render RAN Virginias useless in less than a year:
    – block access to US comms systems that transmit navigation and targeting data
    – block performance of software in US Combat system fitted in subs
    – withhold spare parts. This is the most critical weakness. All subs are maintenance heavy. You can’t send an SSN to sea with, say, a malfunctioning device relating to reactor safety. Subs need maintenance every year. Some components, e.g. for the reactor, we cannot make in Australia.

    Unfortunately this last weakness applies to UK SSNs as well, including SSN AUKUS. It has US IP in the reactor. So a future Trump-like POTUS could effectively disable an RAN Virginia or SSN AUKUS sub, assuming we get any. This is one of many reasons why AE and myself have banged on about French SSNs. Far from being unrealistic, it is the only secure option, if available. If it is unavailable, we are wasting $10 billion.

    If Australia is serious about SSNs, which I have grown skeptical of, the RAN needs to be talking to both France and UK, and possibly Canada and Japan. If France and UK cooperated, the US IP in an SSN AUKUS could be replaced by French IP. Then we could build the UK SSN AUKUS design, starting in ten years time…

    Otherwise Richard Marles should admit he knows nothing about submarines, switch to a Korean or German diesel sub build, and resign.

    If Marles knew all along AUKUS was a scam and was simply buying time while delaying spending so Chalmers could repair the budget, he has truly taken one for the team. He has sacrificed his own credibility, so that Labor could be good economic managers.

  31. And speaking of ‘vacuous self-aggrandizement’ (you American, ScromoII?), come on down,
    Scott ‘5 Ministries’ Morrison!

  32. Larval cicadas are not called grubs. ScromoII does not know much about entomology.

    Trump cultists (e.g. ScromoII) are losing their collective shit at the prospect of Mark Carney being returned as Prime Minister. They do not like his strident and cogent repudiation of Trump.

  33. Bsf
    All the states with fixed terms have get out clauses allowing an election if confidence is lost. A fixed term could also be ignored if a double dissolution is required

  34. C@t,

    You said, “Or, to put it another way, the American way of an election every 2 years for Congress is clearly too short an interval. It keeps their politicians in ‘please the electorate’ and campaign mode virtually indefinitely.”

    I’m not sure how my paraphrasing misrepresented you. It seems fairly clear you believe politicians trying to please the electorate indefinitely is a bad thing.

  35. C@tmomma @ #65 Friday, March 21st, 2025 – 10:03 am

    I’m not a supporter of Fixed Terms. Look how long the Brits had to wait before they could dump a clearly poor and shambolic government.

    That had nothing to do with fixed terms. Only one term actually went full length during the period that the extremely toothless fixed term act was in effect.

  36. Governor of Illinois

    ————
    Pritzker: You know, I was asked the other day if I could say one thing to Donald Trump, what would it be? And I said, “What does Putin have on you?”

    Everybody rational understands that Putin is trying to rebuild the old Russian Empire. And Donald Trump is literally handing it to him…

  37. Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
    #YouGov ALP 31 L-NP 37 Grn 13 ON 7 IND 8* TOP 1 other 3
    * generic ballot, may inflate support
    2PP by YouGov modified preferences 50-50 (ALP -1)
    My estimate by 2022 prefs 51.5 to ALP (-0.8)

  38. I don’t think the UK components of AUKUS are under pressure. What will happen is that the AUKUS sub when delivered it will now have a UK reactor and warfare system where in the past those components were to be of US origin either intellectually or via manufacture. The boat is early enough in the design process that these things can be changed. The costs will be financial.

    Don’t be surprised that Canada replaces the US in AUKUS.

  39. Don’t be surprised that Canada replaces the US in AUKUS.
    ________________________
    Are you putting an order for a Canuck?

  40. Ante Meridiansays:
    Friday, March 21, 2025 at 11:14 am
    C@t,

    You said, “Or, to put it another way, the American way of an election every 2 years for Congress is clearly too short an interval. It keeps their politicians in ‘please the electorate’ and campaign mode virtually indefinitely.”

    I’m not sure how my paraphrasing misrepresented you. It seems fairly clear you believe politicians trying to please the electorate indefinitely is a bad thing.

    AM, what I meant was, not that politicians shouldn’t do things that benefit their electorates, but that they shouldn’t be caught in a perpetual cycle of populist politics just so they can get re-elected.

  41. Herald Sun 21/03
    However, Labor was left red-faced after having to strip the word “tough” from its name after several crossbench MPs united with the Coalition to pass the amendment.
    The bill is now the Bail Amendment Bill.
    _____________________
    Heaps better.
    Political slogans like ‘tough’ should not be used in the naming of bills.

  43. Don’t be surprised that Canada replaces the US in AUKUS.

    Will Canada be the CAUK that holds it together? 😀

    I’ll just get my hat and coat and go… 😆

  45. Wat Tylersays:
    Friday, March 21, 2025 at 11:16 am
    C@tmomma @ #65 Friday, March 21st, 2025 – 10:03 am

    I’m not a supporter of Fixed Terms. Look how long the Brits had to wait before they could dump a clearly poor and shambolic government.

    That had nothing to do with fixed terms. Only one term actually went full length during the period that the extremely toothless fixed term act was in effect.

    Kind of missing the point I was making, but whatever. My point was not that politicians monkeying about with Fixed Terms is the problem. The problem is the Fixed Terms.

  46. Dee,
    It’s so obvious that pied piper is a White Boomer Male. The rest comes with the territory.

    (Disclaimer: Not all White Boomer Males are the same).

  47. Conspiracy theories about President John F. Kennedy’s assassination have been circulating for over 60 years, but few have been as wild as the one comedian Russell Brand shared on X on Thursday.
    In a since-deleted post, Brand quoted a fictitious document—allegedly from the FBI’s recent release of classified files about JFK—claiming British TV star Penelope Keith killed the former president.
    “We are sure, without uncertainty, that the assassination of President Kennedy was NOT carried out by Mr Lee Harvey Oswald or any member of any organized crime syndicate,” the post reads.
    The attached screenshot highlights a section of the document that reveals the assassin: “The lone shooter in Dallas, Texas on 22 November 1963 was Miss Penelope Keith, star of the BBC television program The Good Life.”
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/russell-brand-falls-for-hoax-saying-british-sitcom-star-penelope-keith-killed-jfk/

  48. Victoria

    A former republican with a disdain for the democrats said if Trump is not a Russian asset then what has Putin got on the guy.

  50. Now, all the one-star reviews of Snow White are pouring in. I don’t really care and probably won’t watch it, but what fascinates me is the global-scale propaganda campaigns surrounding such an insignificant movie release. The way culture wars are waged by mobilising online communities across the world is a remarkable consequence of the internet.

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