Federal polling continues to come thick and fast, with a general pattern of improving results for Labor and Anthony Albanese:
• The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll has the major parties unchanged on the primary vote, with Labor on 29% and the Coalition on 35%, and the Greens down one to 12%, with the remainder including an undecided component of 6%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has a 47-47 tie (the balance being undecided), after the Coalition led 48-47 last time. The stability on voting intention is in contrast to much improved personal ratings for Anthony Albanese, who records his first net positive result in this series since October 2023, the month of the Indigenous Voice referendum. Albanese is up five on approval to 46% (The Guardian report says up four, but the previous published result was 41%) and down four on disapproval to 45%. Peter Dutton is steady on 41% approval and up two on disapproval to 46%. The poll also finds 31% supporting and 39% opposing Peter Dutton’s proposal to reduce work-from-home arrangements for public servants (with women particularly opposed), which he has since dialled back. Albanese’s suggestion that Australia might send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine was supported by 33% and opposed by 40%. The poll had a sample of 2256 – double the usual size – and was conducted from Wednesday to Sunday. The full report is available here.
• Roy Morgan, which is notably more volatile than other Australian pollsters, has turned up an eyebrow-raiser with its regular weekly federal voting intention result, putting Labor 54.5-45.5 ahead on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 51.5-48.5 last week. Labor is up two-and-a-half on the primary vote to 32.5%, the Coalition is down three to 34%, and the Greens and One Nation are steady on 13.% and 5%. The result is also 54.5-45.5 on previous election preference flows, which usually favours Labor more than the other method, out from 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a larger than usual sample of 2097.
• The ABC has polling from Talbot Mills on attitudes to Donald Trump, finding approval down from 41% since February (well on the high side of such polling in Australia) to 37% and disapproval up from 49% to 51%, including a six-point increase for “strongly disapprove”. Twenty-two per cent of Australians somehow approve of steel and aluminium tariffs on Australian exports, with 65% disapproving. The survey was conducted between March 6 and 12, so before the tariffs were actually confirmed, from a sample of 1051.
Yesterday’s News Corp papers reported on polling of six seats of interest to the Greens, conducted for right-wing activist group Advance by Insightfully, whose principal is Leanne White, formerly of Crosby Textor. Reported under headlines promising a “federal election wipeout” for the party, it in fact suggests the party will gain a second seat in Victoria and retain one or two of their three seats in Brisbane. To deal first with the latter, for which the greater detail is provided:
• In Griffith, the poll has the LNP on 38.6% (30.7% at the 2022 election), the Greens on 31.3% (34.6%), Labor on 22.6% (28.9%), independents on 1.5% and others on 5.9%. No two-candidate preferred is provided, but a conservative estimate based on 2022 election flows would give the Greens a winning margin of between 2% and 3%, compared with 10.5% at the 2022 election.
• In Ryan, the primary votes are LNP 39.6% (38.5% in 2022), Greens 27.4% (30.2%), Labor 21.9% (22.3%), independent 7.1% and others 3.9%. A two-candidate result of 51.6-48.3 in favour of the LNP is presumably based on respondent-allocated preferences, with flows from the 2022 election suggesting a lineball result. The Greens’ winning margin over the LNP in 2022 was 2.6%.
• The results suggests Labor would gain Brisbane with 29.5% of the primary vote (27.3% in 2022) to the LNP’s 36.4% (37.3%), since they would receive most of the third-placed Greens’ 18.1% (27.2%) as preferences, with independents on 9.7% and others on 6.3%. A two-party result of 53-47 result in favour of the LNP (the basis of the “Brisbane to turn blue” table headline) appears to presume the Greens would come second, when the primary votes clearly suggest otherwise, and seems excessive in its LNP preference flow besides. The Greens won by 3.7% over the LNP in 2022, and Labor won the two-party preferred count over the LNP by 4.4%.
Sketchier detail is provided for the three Victorian seats canvassed:
• In Melbourne, Adam Bandt is on 50.1% (49.6% at the 2022 election, which reduces to 44.9% on my own determination of the redistribution), Labor is on 19.2% (25.0% and 25.6%) and the Liberals are on (I think) 21.6% (15.2% and 19.4%).
• In Wills, the only detail provided for the primary vote is that the Greens are up 4.8% on what seems to be the 2022 result without adjustment for the redistribution, suggesting 33.1%. Labor is said to have a 53.7-46.3 lead after preferences (54.2-45.8 based on my own post-redistribution determination), which is hard to assess in the absence of the other primary votes.
• In Macnamara, the Liberal are on 37.6% (29.0% on the 2022 election result, which will do because of the modest impact of the redistribution on this seat), the Greens are on 27.9% (29.6%) and Labor is on 25.9% (31.8%). No two-candidate preferred result is provided, but the Greens would certainly close that gap on any normal accounting of Labor preferences, which may hold true even if Labor put the Liberals ahead of them on their how-to-vote cards, as counselled by News Corp’s James Campbell.
The polls targeted “about 600 voters” in each seat, suggesting a margin of error of around 4% (effectively higher if the results were heavily weighted, as was presumably the case), with field work dates not disclosed.
N88 latest yougov polls is 50/50 Labor steady at 31 liberals 37 green is 12.5 and I think one nation is 7.5 so it’s still going to be minority government but I have a feeling labour it’s gonna have a better shot at four minute than the coalition it’s in the past couple of weeks
More polling…
YouGov (looks like they are reporting weekly now in the leadup to our election).
Note with YouGov, they were all over the UK polling last year like a virus.
This polling company needs to be paid attention, despite results.
Latest poll:
Poll Period: Mar 14-19
Sample: 1500 exactly (this is a decent sample for a National poll)
* ALP 31% (steady)
* LNP 37% (up 1)
* GRN 13% (down 0.5)
* Pauline 7% (down 0.5)
* Others/Indies (incl. Trumpet of nuts) 12% (steady)
Their 2PP 50 evens.
Link: https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/51859-election-remains-tightly-poised-at-50-50-2pp-in-latest-yougov-poll
For those who have suggested “caution” this past week, you have been correct.
WB – over to you for analysis please.
”
nadia88says:
Thursday, March 20, 2025 at 10:11 pm
Centre – I’ll bank that Melbourne Storm win.
Right, back to the polls. WB and staff, your attention required please…
Demos AU – Federal Vote intention out of W.A., dated 19-Mar
Headline 52-48, ALP leading. ie: Albo, not Cook
Apologies if this poll has been reported on PB. I have been off the grid for a couple of weeks.
Anyway, primaries (comparison figures from the 2022 election)…
* ALP 36% (down 0.8%)
* LNP 38% (up 3.2)
* GRN 11% (down 1.5)
* Pauline 6% (up 2)
* Others 9% (down 2.9) Most likely, goodbye Kate Chaney (espescially when you look at the W.A. state results for her patch).
Link: https://demosau.com/news/wa-federal-poll-labor-fairing-better-than-in-eastern-states-but-key-seats-at-risk/
”
nadia
Yes.
And Paul A berated Labor partisans for thinking that ALP could win next federal election and gave them a huge serve. But he also received huge serve in return.
The Storm beat a Penrith team without Nathan Cleary. Just.
*golfclap*
Ven,
Are you still smarting from thinking Kamala Harris was going to win the Presidential election in the US or something? So now you are pre-emptively telling us every day that the Coalition are going to win so you won’t be disappointed all over again if Labor loses?
N88 kos said that Western Australia good stronghold for labour at the moment that’s why I laugh any time someone says Liberals are gonna get a majority at the moment it’s going to look like it’s minority in the Peter cannot keep stuffing up it’s gonna be majority for labour
nadia88 – thankyou so much with the Storm pick, and Centre too.
When the pair of you line up, shit you know your sports. Made a few $$$ tonight
So LNP is on the way back, or a bit of ALP doom casting from you, or both
Cat mama honestly I’m surprised people thought that liberals had a chance at best most poles were like it’s 51 to 49 or 50 50 that’s why I laugh when Paul and the other side’s gonna be a coalition Victory it might be but it’s probably gonna be minority
Quentin Rountree,
It’s not the Liberals at 37%, it’s the Coalition.
No Paul it’s going to be a minority government didn’t you also said that labour was losing in Western Australia so maybe people shouldn’t take your advice anyway I kept what I said minority government
Coalition at 37 huh man looks like they’re gonna get 90 seats then hey I’m being sarcastic the good news is both sides are going to be fighting for the vote and Labor realize hey we’re good with many care why don’t we fight with that
Quentin Rountree,
I agree, and I will keep on repeating what wise old hands, Mumble and Michelle Grattan, have said. If it’s 50-50 before the election has been called then you can add 1-2% to the government of the day to get your final result in general. Unless the baseball bats are out. And they aren’t.
I’ve had reports from the doors this week and it’s been good news. People are saying that they’re happy with Labor. Which is a turnaround from 3 months ago even.
Mama the thing is I think Peter would have had a way more commanding lead if he actually focus on s*** that Australia likes like Medicare it all that stuff I don’t know why he’s he’s starting to act like Trump when he was oppositionally it was quiet now it’s stupid s*** that people ain’t gonna need like the referendum if he focus on cost of living he would be in the lead that’s what shocking about it he should have had a the bag but he can’t seemed to get a big margin like I would say Peter had it if it was 55 to 46 with the Jews poles hit but it’d be 51 to 49 if I was a liberal strategist I’ll tell Peter don’t act like Trump poisoned to 60% of the people in the people who do like Trump were going to vote for you in the first place sorry for my rambling but holy s*** it’s just seems that he s*****’s pants when Labor announced that bulk bill scheme
The news cycle is starting to load up the “200k” student visa arrivals year to date story.
This may play back to Dutton. The student visa scourge- I’d be very pissed if a fundamentally competent and functional first term government was sunk due to the optics of not clamping down on a large cohort of scammers abusing a single visa stream.
Keep Modi happy at the cost of handing Dutton the keys to the lodge.
I also wonder if Labour’s got internal polling say that they’re doing better than they are I know we should have trusted because that’s the same thing the Harris cab said they also said they added the Trump effects they were still in front but because everyone has to vote you want to get the center not the far right or the far left
Australian business houses transacting in the USA will be assessing any impact of tariffs
They are responsible to their Shareholders
So Cat, you do not say anything
You act – and no doubt they are (noting Albanese as pm has relationships with the Captains of Commerce and Industry – and Unions. So guess what the conversations would be)
Pratt and Gina come to mind
Not in focus to date is Capital and any transactions which Trump views as detrimental to him and his self interested henchmen
This will impact on currencies
Capital is global including Nations such as China holding significant USA Sovereign Debt so if they sell off?)
Given the criticisms of Powell, Trumps petulant response to any criticism is yet to play out
As with Brexit (a racist agenda) the impacts will be just too wide to ever attend a comprehensive analysis
But the pendulum will swing again sometime into the future
There is an old story that to strike a deal you need to leave something on the table for the next guy otherwise there is no deal
Trump has never learned this lesson
And QR, the Libs have internal polling which was a subject at lunch last week – that they were in trouble We will see what tomorrow brings
The ALP poll also but I do not have contacts there
Quentin – they need to get over 40% to be a threat. They’re sitting at 37% with yougov.
They’ve had an increase on this poll, despite suffering big losses on some other polls since Feb.24.
Obviously with Roy Morgan they’ve lost some paint. I’m a bit of a fan of Morgan, although most on this site don’t like the Morgan poll. They’ve lost 6% on the primary with Morgan this past fortnight.
It will probably bounce back on Monday – we’ll see.
Good pick up from you too re: the You Gov poll. I only saw it after the footy.
I think you’re on the money with the current polling too, and no-one will be happy on election night.
Will be a long election night I think.
Quentin at this stage internal polling is usually limited to seat by seat trackers with small sample sizes and conducted either weekly or fortnightly dependant on the status of the seat.
They are usually fairly brief and simply worded quantitative surveys. They are designed to be cost effective and the data packs very limited to 3 core questions.
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, March 20, 2025 at 10:18 pm
The Storm beat a Penrith team without Nathan Cleary. Just.
*golfclap*
=========================
c@t – stop your golf clap nonsense please.
Centre wouldn’t have known that Cleary would be off the field after 13 minutes.
He probably noticed – more – that Dylan Edwards was dropped from the side on Thurs morning.
Centre cops a bagging on this site for some reason, but he knows what’s going on.
I watch his posts when he drops by. He’s worth a read.
nadia88 at 10.11 pm
Please don’t read electorate prospects off a state-wide poll as if there will be uniform swings because there won’t.
You cannot diminish Kate Chaney’s prospects of reelection off a drop in the independent vote in WA overall.
Basil Z’s faulty performance in the WA election suggests otherwise.
Look at the trend in recent weeks, before the campaign actually starts. Why would Dutton help the Libs in WA, or anywhere beyond QLD?
Carmen Lawrence once told me personally that J. Gillard was a policy-free zone, before Labor fell for her.
By comparison Dutton is much worse. He is campaigning on the vibe alone. Some LNP backbenchers have worked out what was clear to S. Birmingham last year, well before the polls turned.
N88 yeah I remember the conversations us to have about the election and how it’s gonna be a minority government at the moment it doesn’t feel like Labour’s getting yougov has Anthony at 45 to Peter at 40 yeah we don’t know also they got a half a point off a off the greens so don’t know if it’s just there voting stuff what I said Peter have a command been league like the one in Queensland and Western Australia but he has it so I’m wondering if he has people it is campaign team even telling to act like Trump even though 60% don’t like him or at more like a centre right part I don’t know why people think Australians like far right or far leftists I think we’re more of a of a centre government and we have more roadblocks in place in case Peter wins and decides to do stupid s*** look at what happened to Tony Abbott
Hey Dr Doolittle what do you mean by some of the Liberal back benches do they realise that it was not all and rainbows and try and keep the fever down of them winning because if I remember Jay 1983 basically said that it’s line ball that I think Lefty baller said that some of the Sky News people are talking down the chances of a coalition win so I’m guessing something’s happening and they’re looking out and knowing no we’re not going to win this one I could be wrong but I do like that this election is gonna be a hard Fort one instead of a give me
On 13 March I took Labor to form government on Sportsbet at $2.60, they’re in to $2.10 now.
Centre is to nadia as nath is to Dave
Quentin Rountree at 10.54 pm
Disquiet among LNP MPs (probably mostly Lib MPs outside QLD) with Dutton’s lack of policy effort, as reported by Karvelas and Tingle.
One thing Dutton has been is ruthless in suppressing dissent from the Voice referendum onwards, but, as the wheels start to wobble because his policy cupboard is bare, there will be more sceptics among the Libs who express doubts about his approach, especially in the context of the basic Lib problem in persuading women.
It looks as if nobody in the Libs has seriously studied the 2022 review.
Anyone who takes the odds provided by big betting agencies like Sportsbet et al for the elections need to voluntarily return to the facility they escaped from.
Exotic, novelty betting markets like politics are used as a marketing gateway device in an attempt to temp non gamblers into participating. Politics is a great way for them to do this. For them it means nothing to manipulate the odds , a kind of loss leader if you will to get some new blood in the game. If they can convert just 1% of the casuals that just registered to make a wager on the election into regulars it has been worth it.
nadia88,
Don’t tell me what to do, or not do, please. You’re not my mum, Mother Superior, or the moderator. I don’t appreciate randoms believing they can do that.
Also, Centre got lucky with his prediction tonight. That’s all it was. Without the Nathan Clearly magic touch the Storm could only manage a 4 point win over the Panthers. That’s why I made the comment that I did.
leftieBrawler,
At last, someone who has whipped the mask off ‘election betting’. tl:dr It’s a mug’s game.
Evening c@t. Nadia is looking to replace entropy who hasnt been seen since last Saturday when he was driving lars to the T2 terminal at mascot in his 2007 S class
paul A says:
Thursday, March 20, 2025 at 10:22 pm
nadia88 – thankyou so much with the Storm pick, and Centre too.
When the pair of you line up, shit you know your sports. Made a few $$$ tonight
So LNP is on the way back, or a bit of ALP doom casting from you, or both
===================================
paul A – Centre is more attuned to tipping and betting stuff.
If you’ve made a few bucks tonight, then send a few $$$ WB’s way, as he puts on this show.
I’m not really into footy tips – I prefer the polling and post -poll discussion from the posters here.
If I can just say, you tend to be quite abrasive to some posters on this site. Perhaps, just let that go a bit. I understand gents do a bit of niggling and banter amongst themselves, but the site is more geared toward polling and political affairs, not silly billy stuff. I see in the past few days you’ve lined up sprocket & Tricot. These posters are fairly harmless. Why attack? Perhaps use the scroll wheel.
I don’t think Nadia is a random anymore. She’s probably the leading female contributor and deserving of her position.
nath,
We don’t need a league table for commenters. We all have our opinions and like you know what else, everyone’s got one. We all have our good days and our bad days, and you, as much as anyone else, should know that.
Also, to me, nadia IS a random because I’ve never met the woman. Hence, she can’t tell me what to do. Simple as that, really.
Dutton’s only ploy is to play divide and conquer. He’s not capable or willing to offer anything constructive. If there is no substance, why is he even there other than to be a puppet of the ultra-wealthy?
Dr Doolittle I honestly think they didn’t game plan of Trump getting back in I think if Harris will buy in one they’ll be like okay we can get this also like no one at the Campaign Trail and hey people want to cost a living help and we’re not America that’s why I’m shocked usually it’s been incumbrance losing elections but our best Peter’s got what 51 to 49 or 50 50 and even then we look what happened in the Queensland campaign sure Queensland Labour didn’t one but they gave them a black eye so that’s one don’t know why the people like Paul Centre Mando thinking that the coalitions got this they need to win at least 22 seeds and I have not seen a political party done that the close they got was was 2010 and Gillard was more hated than Anthony that’s why I keep thinking this election’s gonna be minority because no one is a commanding lead not labour all the Liberal Party
Dave do you speak to nath much these days ? Is he still angry with the catholic priests ?
Perhaps C@t but a lot of people are happy Nadia is back. Her popularity is like a run away freight train right now and leaving many in the dust.
Kari Lake is a horrible person (but then we knew that already):
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/kari-lake-accosted-ruben-gallego-at-posh-dc-club-mark-kelly-town-hall-immigration
Resolve poll will be very interesting I am not convinced of some of the recent labor favour polls.Trend is shocking for hard labor.
Musk has had a word to Trump about Australias doing over of USA social media companies regarding forced support financially Aussie media.
Us cattle producers also spoken to Republicans along with of course pharma.
April 2 will be ugly when you throw in a hurt ego Trump after being called a traitor and slagged off by labor.Malcolm stuck a boot in as
Well.
Notice since Trump been in 3 of top 10 most US wanted have been arrested.
davesays:
Thursday, March 20, 2025 at 11:20 pm
Perhaps C@t but a lot of people are happy Nadia is back. Her popularity is like a run away freight train right now and leaving many in the dust.
Sorry, nath, but I’m just not into slavering over people here like that. But I guess it’s easy to be ‘like a runaway freight train’ when you’re not carrying any freight, like the Dawn Patrol 6 days a week. 😐
pied piper,
It may have escaped your notice but Australia is a sovereign nation who doesn’t have to bow and scrape to America, or Elon Musk.
Is there any other polling come out this week? I’ve heard that there’s gonna be a Resolve poll that might come out but it hasn’t afaik.
I kept flip flopping on how I would describe the trend suggested by recent polling. After seeing this recent YouGov poll (released after a 2 weeks of good results for Labor) and comparing March Freshwater and YouGov polls to their last polls in February, I’m inclined to think that recent polling trends show a stagnation in Labor’s decline (and some minor recovery for Labor) rather than Labor actually recovering in the polls. Although it seems like sentiment is towards Labor is improving a bit considering how 2pp results went from always breaking for LNP since September/Late November to a tie or breaking for Labor
Originally I was going to have amateur poll reading in this section of the post but I don’t feel confident about posting that.
However, I’m more interested in would be how the polls will be affected by next Tuesday’s deficit budget. I think that the budget could have the potential to restart Labor’s decline in polling. Considering that we’re nearing the end of March and the upcoming budget, I’ll aim to post my monthly Federal Election prediction on Sunday (may the lord have mercy on me bc PollBludger won’t)
leftieBrawlersays:
Thursday, March 20, 2025 at 11:19 pm
Dave do you speak to nath much these days ? Is he still angry with the catholic priests ?
____________________
If you are implying I was interfered with by priests you are mistaken. The Catholic side of my family got out decades before I was born. In any case, I was a fast crawler.
Pied Piper if you actually think resolve is going to be what the election is on election night you’re insane also Trump and Elon a poison keep burning those teslas
pied piper says:
Thursday, March 20, 2025 at 11:27 pm
Musk has had a word to Trump about Australias doing over of USA social media companies regarding forced support financially Aussie media.
Us cattle producers also spoken to Republicans along with of course pharma.
April 2 will be ugly when you throw in a hurt ego Trump after being called a traitor and slagged off by labor.Malcolm stuck a boot in as
Well.
———
It’s best for the LNP’s electoral chances if Trump’s attention isn’t focused at all on Australia.
We should have a Resolve poll on Sunday evening, and more importantly we’ll get the latest Fed & State figures out of Victoria.
Link: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
Other than that, (apart from YouGov this evening), we’ll have another Morgan poll around 5PM Monday, and then a quiet week.
dave at 11.20 pm
Nadia is like the passengers not the coal trains etc. More like the Indian Pacific but better near the Pacific, or better the eternal Qld coastal train.
She is as polite as a good conductor and she should be respected for that.
Don’t know how to say this guys but I constantly feel sad than happy maybe I need to see someone I don’t know I’m maybe it’s my head doing me in hopefully I can get on the NDIS if not I don’t know what to do
Honestly I’m not really going to pay attention to Australian polls for the next couple of weeks because so much is going to happen over then. There’s the budget next week, then presumably Albanese is going to visit Yarralumla at any point afterward to call the May election.
Once the campaign officially starts, then yeah, that’ll be the time to keep an eye on things.
Quentin Rountree @ #1096 Thursday, March 20th, 2025 – 11:41 pm
Serious suggestion, if you feel like that, maybe give a call to Beyond Blue? Their number is 1300 224 636. I’ve called them a few times over the past few years and they’ve been excellent to speak to for when you’re feeling down.
Sprocket_ & Tricot.
If any offence, I apologise. I shall leave you both in peace on this site.
Bit of niggling on my behalf.