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Friday
Even slower progress in the count today. Labor has claimed victory in Fremantle after another batch of postals broke 637-488 in favour of Simone McGurk, pushing her lead out to 491. Finally some progress in Warren-Blackwood, where only rechecking occurred between Monday and Thursday. My system is still allowing for the possibility of either a Labor or a Liberal win, though far the most likely result will be that it goes to the Nationals. The Nationals lead Labor by 956 on the two-candidate preferred candidate count – the hypothetical chance of Labor winning would involve the Liberals beating the Nationals to second and Labor doing better out of preferences against the Liberals than they are against the Nationals. Thirty-six votes separate the Nationals and the Liberals on the primary vote, but the Nationals will surely gain as minor contenders are eliminated.
Thursday
The Liberals hold a 98-vote lead in Kalamunda after the two-candidate count almost caught up with the primary votes, and the first (but presumably not last) batch of absents broke narrowly in favour of Labor. My system is projecting the narrowest of Labor leads based on the fact that they did quite a lot better on postals in this seat in 2021 than is usual — the batch counted on election night slightly favoured the Liberals, but the general tendency is for later batches to get less favourable for them. One way or another, this seat seems up in the air, although The West Australian continues to report the Liberals are “confident”.
It was noted yesterday that Labor’s lead in South Perth was cut from 345 to 189 when nearly 70 votes at the Challenger Reserve booth were shifted from Labor to Liberal. It is apparent from comparison of the primary and two-candidate counts that they had this right the first time. A batch of absent votes also broke 902-791 to Labor today, leaving a published lead of 300 votes that almost certainly around 440 in reality, which is surely enough to withstand whatever’s still out there.
The upper house count isn’t too far behind the lower house now, though all the votes to this point are above-the-line. It’s looking like Labor 16, Liberal 11, Greens four, Nationals two, one each for One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and Australian Christians, and one in play. On the latter count, Animal Justice are on 0.43 quotas and One Nation’s second candidate will be on 0.35 after the election of the first, with the latter presumably to do well out of preferences from the Libertarians, Stop Pedophiles! and Shooters Fishers and Farmers (the latter of whom flopped after committing the rookie error of identifying themselves on the ballot paper as “SFFPWA”). An unknown quantity is “Independent” on 0.47 quotas – if most of this went to the ticket headed by former Legalise Cannabis member Sophie Moermond, rather than the ungrouped candidates, she too could be in contention.
Wednesday
Simone McGurk moved further ahead today in Fremantle, a second batch of absents breaking 1029-718 her way, increasing her lead from 31 to 342. Labor did badly out of rechecking in South Perth, where their lead fell from 345 to 189, mostly because nearly 70 votes at the Challenger Reserve booth were shifted from Labor to Liberal. Dawesville became the second seat to add absent votes to the count, which increased the Labor lead from 438 to 512 after breaking 1162-1088.
Tuesday
The big news (the only news, really) from today’s counting was that Simone McGurk moved into a 31-vote lead in Fremantle after absent votes broke 1390-1121 in her favour. I am not clear if there are more absent votes to come, but outstanding postals, of which there should be as many as 2000, seem very likely to favour McGurk. This puts Labor on track for a forty-sixth seat, and sets up a third successive state election at which no cross-benchers were elected to the lower house.
Monday
End of evening. Labor member Rebecca Stephens has conceded defeat in Albany, though it remains unclear if the winner will be Scott Leary of the Liberals or Thomas Brough of the Nationals. A point worth noting about the count for Kalamunda is that the seat had no dedicated early polling place, meaning all early votes were classified as absent votes, none of which have been counted yet. There are still three booths outstanding from a two-candidate count that currently has the Liberals ahead by 187, a situation that is unlikely to change much when they are added. The West Australian reports the Liberals “remain confident”. Since my brief review of the upper house on election night, both Labor and Liberal have improved enough to suggest they will win 16 and 11 seats respectively. That leaves the Greens assured of the balance of power with what looks like a certain four seats. The Nationals look solid for two, and One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and Australian Christians for one each. The last seat is harder to pick, although I would think Animal Justice well placed.
3pm. The WAEC is now conducting a two-candidate count between Simone McGurk and Kate Hulett in Fremantle, which so far has McGurk receiving 41.3% of overall preferences — the estimates I was going off earlier only had it at 34.4%. My projection still has Hulett ahead, but it might not be taking into account how heavily postal votes are going against her (1069 to 718), and will presumably continue to do so. With barely half the likely postals counted, the existing trend would be about enough to eliminate Hulett’s lead. So once again, the result is likely to come down to absents, which are difficult to predict. We also finally have a TCP count in Murray-Wellington, which suggests the Liberals are very likely to win.
Sunday night
I appeared on Ben Raue’s Tally Room podcast today to discuss the result, which you can access at the bottom of this update. I should also have a paywalled piece in Crikey later today (i.e. Monday). Developments from today’s counting, which mopped up mostly early polling places that didn’t finish counting last night:
Dawesville. My call of this seat for Labor got rescinded in the small hours of Saturday when a second batch of votes was added for the Dawesville Early Polling Place (presumably the first was election day votes and the second was the pre-polls), breaking 3109-2619 to Liberal and reducing the Labor lead to 438. As the first batch of postals favoured Labor slightly, Liberal hopes of closing the gap rest on what I’ve roughly calculated at around 3500 absent votes.
Murray-Wellington. Still no two-candidate count here, but the 4491 votes of the district’s early polling place reported early afternoon yesterday. This pushes my projection of the Liberal lead out to a seemingly formidable 2.4%, bringing it closer into line with the ABC’s 1.9%. Here as in many other places, this all hinges on the accuracy of our preference estimates. I note that One Nation polled an uncommonly strong 8.1% here, perhaps helped by their top position on the ballot paper. Donkey votes will go Labor as preferences.
Warren-Blackwood. I’m not exactly sure why, but the 1.4% Labor lead I was projecting last night has become a 2.6% lead for the Nationals, though there remains a theoretical hope for the Liberals.
End of Saturday night
This seat will be progressively updated over the coming week with updates on late counting for the Western Australian state election, starting with a review of the situation in the most doubtful seats as of the end of the night. A few general points before moving on to specifics. Accurate election eve polls, which in fact slightly overstated the Labor primary vote, had few predicting such a sweeping result. The minority of seats in which the two-party swing was below double digits included a rich haul of the election’s most keenly contested seats. The other outstanding feature of the result was the Liberals’ dismal performance in affluent Perth seats, of which Churchlands is only the most visible example.
With only three seats confirmed as Labor losses — Carine and Nedlands to Liberal, Geraldton to the Nationals — my system is calling 40 seats for Labor, four for the Nationals and three for the Liberals and twelve in doubt. However, I’m confident enough about Labor in Bateman and Kimberley and Liberal in Cottesloe that I won’t be detailing them further. I also think it very likely that Labor will lose Albany, though whether to the Nationals or the Liberals is unclear. If it’s the Nationals, the Liberals had better hope they stay ahead in the three further seats where my system rates them as such, as they may otherwise suffer the ignominy of failing to recover opposition status.
Albany. A close race for second between the Nationals and Liberals means the WAEC is sparing us the valuable insight that would be offered by a two-party count conducted between Labor and Nationals candidates. My own three-way results system is projecting Nationals candidate Scott Leary to finish ahead of Liberal candidate Tom Brough (who defeated Leary for Liberal preselection) by 30.1% to 27.6% and then giving him a 68.2% chance of winning the seat, but it factors in enough uncertainty about Brough dropping out to still give him a 17.6% chance. The remaining 14.2% allows for the possibility that Labor’s Rebecca Stephens may yet hold on.
Churchlands. One of the biggest stories of the evening was the prospect of spectacular failure for Basil Zempilas, but it proved illusory to the extent that his swing was locked up in seat’s early polling booth, which reported late in the evening. My system isn’t quite calling it though, and a swing of barely more than 3% looks to be the weakest of the election after Warren-Blackwood.
Fremantle. The WAEC conducted a Labor-versus-Greens preference count we will presumably never see, because the star performer here proved to be teal independent Kate Hulett, who trails Labor’s Simone McGurk by 33.2% to 28.8% on the primary vote. My own preference estimates, which split the Liberals 80-20 and the Greens 50-50, push Hulett to a solid 3.7% lead, but the ABC has other ideas, getting only so far as 0.7%.
Kalamunda. A lot of the biggest swings were in outer metropolitan seats, Kalamunda being the only one where the Labor margin wasn’t too big to matter. Liberal candidate Adam Hort leads by 272 on the two-candidate count, which is unlikely to change much when we get results from six booths that have so far reported only on the primary vote. A lot will depend on absent votes, which are hard to predict — they will include early votes cast outside the district, which I don’t believe was the case in the past.
Kalgoorlie. A three-way race between Labor, Liberal and the Nationals in which the current total of 5611 votes counted will shortly be swamped by the Kalgoorlie Early Voting Centre, encompassing 8241 votes pre-polls plus however many were cast there on election day. Here as in Albany, Labor, Liberal and the Nationals all have a chance, with my system presently favouring Labor.
Murray-Wellington. Due to some manner of glitch at the WAEC, no votes from this seat reported until late in the evening, by which time the person in charge of unlocking two-candidate counts had seemingly gone home. My preference estimates give the Liberals a 0.6% lead, but the ABC has it at 2.5%. The electorate’s early polling place is yet to report: it received 7167 early votes plus however many were cast there yesterday.
Pilbara. The WAEC conducted a Labor-versus-Nationals preference count here, but isn’t publishing it because Liberal candidate Amanda Kailis leads Kieran Dart of the Nationals 24.1% to 16.2% on the primary vote. My system still gives Dart a slender chance — he will presumably do well on One Nation preferences — but it is most likely a question of Labor-versus-Liberal that must presently be left to preference estimates, mine putting Labor 1.6% ahead, the ABC’s doing so by 2.1%.
South Perth. With a well advanced count including the two-candidate numbers, Labor’s Geoff Baker leads Liberal candidate Bronwyn Waugh by 345 votes, leaving much riding on absent votes. The postals counted so far only slightly favoured Waugh, and there’s a general tendency for late-arriving postals to be less favourable to the Liberals.
Warren-Blackwood. Labor’s Jane Kelsbie is a good chance of pulling off an extraordinary second win in one of the high-water marks of the 2021 landslide. Oddly, the WAEC has lifted the lid on the two-candidate despite the Nationals and Liberal candidates being in a very close race for second. This has the Nationals 400 votes in front, but the two-candidate count is lagging far behind the primary count, and my own projection that uses estimates to fill the gaps gets Kelsbie 1.4% ahead of the Nationals. There also remains the possibility that the Liberals will make the final count and sneak home.
For the Legislative Council, polling booths around the state got as far as they could with counting the first preference above-the-line votes last night. The numbers may well move around a lot, but at the moment there looks like a solid chance that the Greens will hold the balance of power in their own right, looking good for four seats with Labor in contention for 15. The Liberals at present look like winning ten and the Nationals two, with One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and Australian Christians looking good for a seat each, and the last seat maybe going to Animal Justice.
Pied, even the Greens would be a far superior option than the LNP, and the election outcome shows that the majority of voters know that.
At the booth I went to there was a silly Liberal booth worker loudly proclaiming a win for them and then immediate repeal of gun laws and introduction of voter ID, bullshit imported from the MAGA morons in the US.
If the LNP thinks that is what Australian voters want, long may they think that way.
One final thought on the WA election result: the polls were pretty accurate. Both Newspoll and Demos got the result exactly right (Lab 57/43 2pp), despite predicting margins some thought implausible. William’s current summary election 2pp figure is Labor/Lib 57.1/42.9.
From William’s last post on State election polling:
“On the eve of Western Australia’s state election… Newspoll in The Australian finds Labor leading 57.5-42.5, out from 56-44 in its poll four weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 44% (up two), Liberal 29% (down three), Nationals 5% (up two), Greens 10% (down two) and One Nation 3% (down one). ”
And
“The West Australian has a result from DemosAU putting the Labor two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of Labor 43%, Liberal 30%, Nationals 5% and Greens 11%.”
Hastie’s bizarre claim that outer suburban residents in Perth are commuting two hours each way to get to work are a bit odd considering the Libs opposed Metronet so passionately. Reality is that vehicle commutes from the fringes of Pearce are down from over an hour to 46-50 minutes and it is about 50-55 minutes station to station by train.
I am afraid PP is in for some disappointment as, oddly enough, the people who voted the Greens into a strong position in the upper house won’t mind the Greens being in a strong position in the upper house.
Not seen much mention of the role the CMFEU might have played in the campaign against Simone McGurk.
On polling, The West Australian today has Labor at 59 per cent.
Creeping up.
@Roaldan you will find that the only thing that CFMEU WA did for this state election was personally support their former employee in successfully winning the seat of Midland for WA Labor.
Not to worry Pied, when they need to pander to big business (ie, business as usual) Labor will bypass the Greens team up with the Libs in the LC and keep the rich rich, the poor poor and the environment stuffed, just as they have for the past few decades.
To be a bit less glib, Labor will look for our support for legislation (even if they don’t admit it) and we Greens will have to consider the above senario if we want even mildly progressive legislation passed.
On your point about a hung parliament, one of the reasons Labor looked like it ran a stable and competent administration is because there was little or no scrutiny from the upper house. Without the numbers to get legislation through on the nod, we are going to hear a lot more about laws being passed as the government works out whether it will go with Greens, Liberal, National or PHONLCAC amendments. Similarly, LC committees won’t be stacked with Labor so bills and government actions will get a more thorough going over. A hung parliament is really a deliberative parliament which may look messy but is a lot more accountable to the people who voted for it.
“Socratessays:
Tuesday, March 11, 2025 at 11:40 am
One final thought on the WA election result: the polls were pretty accurate. Both Newspoll and Demos got the result exactly right (Lab 57/43 2pp), despite predicting margins some thought implausible. William’s current summary election 2pp figure is Labor/Lib 57.1/42.9.
From William’s last post on State election polling:
“On the eve of Western Australia’s state election… Newspoll in The Australian finds Labor leading 57.5-42.5, out from 56-44 in its poll four weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 44% (up two), Liberal 29% (down three), Nationals 5% (up two), Greens 10% (down two) and One Nation 3% (down one). ”
And
“The West Australian has a result from DemosAU putting the Labor two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of Labor 43%, Liberal 30%, Nationals 5% and Greens 11%.””
It is interesting though that, looking at the ABC count right now, Labor Greens combined vote is 52 compared to 54 in both of those polls (and Labor contributing most of that short fall) and yet the 2PP is current sitting at 58.5 to 41.5.
I would suggest that points to a far better preference flow to Labor than whatever was used in those polls.
Even though this is WA state, surely this augurs well for the federal election
The Revisionist says:
Tuesday, March 11, 2025 at 1:17 pm
Even though this is WA state, surely this augurs well for the federal election
Nope
– immigration is Federal responsibility on which albo & co have been completely reckless. major fuel on CoL crisis
– political capital burnt in the voice where WA was strongly no vote
– state labor is perceived as competent and steady hand; albo seen as ‘weak’
Really ALP’s last hope at federal level is to HODL for May election. Trump admin seems to be doing wonders for incumbents around the world. their messaging needs to be clear that dutton bringing such ideas from the “big thinker and a deal maker” are a recipe for chaos
I don’t see that Animal Justice are that well placed fr the last LC seat, they will probably be starved of preferences. They would have to get enough preferences to both get ahead of the Independent group, and stay ahead of the SFF group. Maybe they will do well with the below the line votes, but I would have thought that the Independents group would do best with them.
William,
I would be interested to know how much the Nationals running in city seats impacted the primary swing numbers for the Liberals.
There’s been very justifiable criticism of the small primary vote swing to the LNP, so I am interested to know if the Nats had much impact.
@ FUBAR
The metropolitan booth I scruitineered at in Swan Hills got 56 primary votes for the Nationals, which on preferences split 31 Liberal and 25 ALP.
The Nationals accounted for 1.04% of the vote across the metropolitan area, so probably not much.
Fremantle updated now Kate Hulett leads by 238 votes.
Hulett may still be leading by 238 in Fremantle, but there are many thousands of postal and absent votes to come. William’s numbers include a breakdown of 2PP by Polling Place, which reveals that from the first batch of 1834 postal votes counted, Labor’s McGurk has clawed back 360 votes from Hulett’s polling booth lead. Barring something weird going on with absents, it looks like Hulett’s current 238 vote lead is going to disappear over coming days.
Thank you.
“Pied, even the Greens would be a far superior option than the LNP, and the election outcome shows that the majority of voters know that.”
That’s a very creative (contorted?) assessment of the vote shares.
I’ve noticed in the latest update from William that the projected 2cp in Fremantle has flipped toward Labor at 50.1%.
Given that it was 53.7% to the Independent on Sunday it does seem like Labor might actually hold onto it, but at the moment it seems like a coin-flip either way.
Not that it’s that heartening of a result, that it got this close in a seat like Fremantle is somewhat concerning.
Absents counted today have gone well for McGurk on primary votes – WAEC’s 2CP count has not yet been updated to reflect these extra votes.
Antony Green abc website I assume update now says a 31 vote lead to independent says preference count when done may have labor in lead.Independent polled poorly on latest batch of absents.
Hulett was talking the other day about legal action over voting procedures.
If it stays this close and McGurk wins watch out.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/03/western-australia-2025-legislative.html
Western Australia 2025 Legislative Council Postcount
If anyone has any info re count completeness by seat that would be very handy.
Oops labor leading by 31.
Leading what by 31?
An unusual feature of the 2PP count in Fremantle is the quite marked difference between votes cast “on the day” at polling booths – where Hulett strongly outpolled McGurk – compared to McGurk’s off-setting strong performance with early polling, absent and postal votes. The first batch of 1834 postals favored McGurk by 1097 to 737 – which is close to a 60/40 split and equates to a “gain” rate of nearly 200 votes per 1000 counted. If that pattern holds, and there are 2,000+ postal votes still to count as William has indicated, McGurk could end up winning quite comfortably.
I’m pleased that McGurk looks like winning.
The Teal Party should consider running some Upper House Candidates if they want to get into the WA Parliament.
I’m hoping the Greens having the balance of power in the WA LC will put a rocket up WA Labor on renewable energy. There are well more than enough wind farms working though the planning process to fully replace all coal & almost all gas on the SWIS, in conjunction with batteries.
I accept there is well more than enough solar (between rooftop PV and existing large scale) in the system and more large scale PV is unlikely.
Kevin Bonham @ #171 Tuesday, March 11th, 2025 – 11:34 pm
Unfortunately the WAEC doesn’t seem to be releasing that data live.
In 2021 that info was only made available in the Legislative Council final election report that was released in late May.
Grimace says:
Wednesday, March 12, 2025 at 12:29 pm
The grid can’t physically take them. Needs billions to increase capacity.
@FUBAR
Can you indulge me and explain why the two wind farms proposed in the vicinity of Collie with a capacity of ~4GW wouldn’t use the ~2GW of transmission capacity that will be freed up when the existing coal plants in Collie progressively retire between now and 2030?
Note: By mid year approximately 1GW/4GWH of BESS capacity will be operational in Collie, with about double that amount currently working its way though the planning process?
South Perth ALP lead reduced today to only 179 votes was 370 with 70.30 % been counted.
This seems to be an extraordinarily slow count.
McGurk continues to do well on Absents. Now leading by 342. Not much progress, apparently, with other close counts, although South Perth has tightened significantly.
How much left to count in?:
Kalgoorlie
Kalamunda
Bateman
Dawesville
Pilbara
South Perth
Is there a realistic reason that Bateman has not already been chalked up as a Labor win?
And are there any plausible grounds to think that the leading party might change in any of the others?
BTSays @ #183 Wednesday, March 12th, 2025 – 8:32 pm
I think the reason is that Absent votes need to be added to the count before any of those seats, including Bateman can be decisively called.
Other than that, it needs to be established whether the 2pp is between Labor-Liberal or Labor-National will be the final count, and that could be different depending on which is which.
Kirsdarke
Thanks.
Have no absent votes been added yet then??
(sorry not following all the detail quite as closely as some)
BTSays @ #185 Wednesday, March 12th, 2025 – 9:08 pm
From what I gather from the undeclared seats,
Albany – Needs to figure out who leads between Liberals and Nationals
Bateman – Needs Absent Votes
Churchlands – Needs Absent Votes
Dawesville – Needs Absent Votes
Fremantle – Needs Postal Votes
Kalamunda – Needs Absent Votes
Kalgoorlie – Needs to figure out who leads between Liberals and Nationals
Murray-Wellington – Needs Absent Votes
Pilbara – Needs to figure out who leads between Liberals and Nationals
South Perth – Needs Absent Votes
Warren-Blackwood – Needs to figure out who leads between Liberals and Nationals
Abc has just boosted labor to 42 seats Bateman gone labor for another term.
A slow count …
I think we might find that when the inevitable inquiry is held it will reveal that the labour hire contractor has scrimped on staff.
After all, that’s what contractors do. Try to the job done with minimum staff to maximise profits.
Simple question: how many people were hired in 2021? How many were hired this year.
I said a few days ago there seemed to be fewer people issuing ballot papers at my local school than I remember. Hence I had to queue at a time when I had not previously had to.
And if the liberals couldn’t get the small swing they needed win Bateman …. They really have problems.
Kirsdarke (or anyone)
So in those seats, NO absent votes counted as of yet – correct?
Quoting myself from the other day:
That Beverley booth seems to have been fixed – now a much more believable 64 votes out of 773 for One Nation. (1323-773=550, 613-64=549, almost the same – looks like they plugged the wrong number for ON into a spreadsheet that automatically does a row sum for total votes.)
Mangling 64 into 613 takes some doing. I just had a go on the right-hand side of the keyboard: 6, 1 instead of 4, then 3 and Enter (in that order) at almost the same time. Must’ve been done pretty late at night, with no sanity check. Another small way this election seems to have been run pretty badly compared to ones in the past.
The only seats where any absent votes have been counted are Fremantle and Dawesville.
Thanks
Who is likely to win Dawesville and South Perth William based on your understanding of how absents usually break? Is Labor slightly favored in both? In the QLD election these sorts of leads didn’t reverse and in Aspley Labor turned a vote deficit into a bare win. Is this likely to happen here where Labor doesn’t do terrible on late counting like they usually do in some other states?
Further to the confusion and delays in the conduct on the day , and counting at this election, there are a few electorates that seem to have had no early voting provision ( eg Baldivis current count still at 40% , Butler 48% , Kalamunda ) . Those early votes made outside the district will need to be rounded up and included with on the day absents presumably ?
This has been quite an election in a number of ways !
Are the Absent votes expected broadly to go the same way as votes counted so far, or do they normally favour one side over the other?
Absent votes usually aren’t great for the Coalition, but it can vary — a lot of them are cast just outside the electorate, so it can depend on whether that applies in a good or a bad area for one party or the other. It’s further complicated this time by the fact that absent votes will include out-of-district pre-polls this time, which hasn’t been the case in the past.
Correct.
“The Legislative Council count is continuing as ballot papers return to the Processing Centre. Details on the percentages won by each party or group of candidates (listed as “other” on the website) are updated daily as the count progresses. The result of which candidates will be elected to the Legislative Council is expected to be known in the first week of April.”
April feels like a lot of time, is this usual time frame for a state election or just an example of the WA in WAEC standing for ‘Wait Awhile’?
William
Thanks.
Sorry if I’ve missed it, but when are absents expected to be counted?
I should note that the Liberals have done a lot better on absent than ordinary votes in Fremantle.