Click here for full display of Western Australian state election results.
Friday
Even slower progress in the count today. Labor has claimed victory in Fremantle after another batch of postals broke 637-488 in favour of Simone McGurk, pushing her lead out to 491. Finally some progress in Warren-Blackwood, where only rechecking occurred between Monday and Thursday. My system is still allowing for the possibility of either a Labor or a Liberal win, though far the most likely result will be that it goes to the Nationals. The Nationals lead Labor by 956 on the two-candidate preferred candidate count – the hypothetical chance of Labor winning would involve the Liberals beating the Nationals to second and Labor doing better out of preferences against the Liberals than they are against the Nationals. Thirty-six votes separate the Nationals and the Liberals on the primary vote, but the Nationals will surely gain as minor contenders are eliminated.
Thursday
The Liberals hold a 98-vote lead in Kalamunda after the two-candidate count almost caught up with the primary votes, and the first (but presumably not last) batch of absents broke narrowly in favour of Labor. My system is projecting the narrowest of Labor leads based on the fact that they did quite a lot better on postals in this seat in 2021 than is usual — the batch counted on election night slightly favoured the Liberals, but the general tendency is for later batches to get less favourable for them. One way or another, this seat seems up in the air, although The West Australian continues to report the Liberals are “confident”.
It was noted yesterday that Labor’s lead in South Perth was cut from 345 to 189 when nearly 70 votes at the Challenger Reserve booth were shifted from Labor to Liberal. It is apparent from comparison of the primary and two-candidate counts that they had this right the first time. A batch of absent votes also broke 902-791 to Labor today, leaving a published lead of 300 votes that almost certainly around 440 in reality, which is surely enough to withstand whatever’s still out there.
The upper house count isn’t too far behind the lower house now, though all the votes to this point are above-the-line. It’s looking like Labor 16, Liberal 11, Greens four, Nationals two, one each for One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and Australian Christians, and one in play. On the latter count, Animal Justice are on 0.43 quotas and One Nation’s second candidate will be on 0.35 after the election of the first, with the latter presumably to do well out of preferences from the Libertarians, Stop Pedophiles! and Shooters Fishers and Farmers (the latter of whom flopped after committing the rookie error of identifying themselves on the ballot paper as “SFFPWA”). An unknown quantity is “Independent” on 0.47 quotas – if most of this went to the ticket headed by former Legalise Cannabis member Sophie Moermond, rather than the ungrouped candidates, she too could be in contention.
Wednesday
Simone McGurk moved further ahead today in Fremantle, a second batch of absents breaking 1029-718 her way, increasing her lead from 31 to 342. Labor did badly out of rechecking in South Perth, where their lead fell from 345 to 189, mostly because nearly 70 votes at the Challenger Reserve booth were shifted from Labor to Liberal. Dawesville became the second seat to add absent votes to the count, which increased the Labor lead from 438 to 512 after breaking 1162-1088.
Tuesday
The big news (the only news, really) from today’s counting was that Simone McGurk moved into a 31-vote lead in Fremantle after absent votes broke 1390-1121 in her favour. I am not clear if there are more absent votes to come, but outstanding postals, of which there should be as many as 2000, seem very likely to favour McGurk. This puts Labor on track for a forty-sixth seat, and sets up a third successive state election at which no cross-benchers were elected to the lower house.
Monday
End of evening. Labor member Rebecca Stephens has conceded defeat in Albany, though it remains unclear if the winner will be Scott Leary of the Liberals or Thomas Brough of the Nationals. A point worth noting about the count for Kalamunda is that the seat had no dedicated early polling place, meaning all early votes were classified as absent votes, none of which have been counted yet. There are still three booths outstanding from a two-candidate count that currently has the Liberals ahead by 187, a situation that is unlikely to change much when they are added. The West Australian reports the Liberals “remain confident”. Since my brief review of the upper house on election night, both Labor and Liberal have improved enough to suggest they will win 16 and 11 seats respectively. That leaves the Greens assured of the balance of power with what looks like a certain four seats. The Nationals look solid for two, and One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and Australian Christians for one each. The last seat is harder to pick, although I would think Animal Justice well placed.
3pm. The WAEC is now conducting a two-candidate count between Simone McGurk and Kate Hulett in Fremantle, which so far has McGurk receiving 41.3% of overall preferences — the estimates I was going off earlier only had it at 34.4%. My projection still has Hulett ahead, but it might not be taking into account how heavily postal votes are going against her (1069 to 718), and will presumably continue to do so. With barely half the likely postals counted, the existing trend would be about enough to eliminate Hulett’s lead. So once again, the result is likely to come down to absents, which are difficult to predict. We also finally have a TCP count in Murray-Wellington, which suggests the Liberals are very likely to win.
Sunday night
I appeared on Ben Raue’s Tally Room podcast today to discuss the result, which you can access at the bottom of this update. I should also have a paywalled piece in Crikey later today (i.e. Monday). Developments from today’s counting, which mopped up mostly early polling places that didn’t finish counting last night:
Dawesville. My call of this seat for Labor got rescinded in the small hours of Saturday when a second batch of votes was added for the Dawesville Early Polling Place (presumably the first was election day votes and the second was the pre-polls), breaking 3109-2619 to Liberal and reducing the Labor lead to 438. As the first batch of postals favoured Labor slightly, Liberal hopes of closing the gap rest on what I’ve roughly calculated at around 3500 absent votes.
Murray-Wellington. Still no two-candidate count here, but the 4491 votes of the district’s early polling place reported early afternoon yesterday. This pushes my projection of the Liberal lead out to a seemingly formidable 2.4%, bringing it closer into line with the ABC’s 1.9%. Here as in many other places, this all hinges on the accuracy of our preference estimates. I note that One Nation polled an uncommonly strong 8.1% here, perhaps helped by their top position on the ballot paper. Donkey votes will go Labor as preferences.
Warren-Blackwood. I’m not exactly sure why, but the 1.4% Labor lead I was projecting last night has become a 2.6% lead for the Nationals, though there remains a theoretical hope for the Liberals.
End of Saturday night
This seat will be progressively updated over the coming week with updates on late counting for the Western Australian state election, starting with a review of the situation in the most doubtful seats as of the end of the night. A few general points before moving on to specifics. Accurate election eve polls, which in fact slightly overstated the Labor primary vote, had few predicting such a sweeping result. The minority of seats in which the two-party swing was below double digits included a rich haul of the election’s most keenly contested seats. The other outstanding feature of the result was the Liberals’ dismal performance in affluent Perth seats, of which Churchlands is only the most visible example.
With only three seats confirmed as Labor losses — Carine and Nedlands to Liberal, Geraldton to the Nationals — my system is calling 40 seats for Labor, four for the Nationals and three for the Liberals and twelve in doubt. However, I’m confident enough about Labor in Bateman and Kimberley and Liberal in Cottesloe that I won’t be detailing them further. I also think it very likely that Labor will lose Albany, though whether to the Nationals or the Liberals is unclear. If it’s the Nationals, the Liberals had better hope they stay ahead in the three further seats where my system rates them as such, as they may otherwise suffer the ignominy of failing to recover opposition status.
Albany. A close race for second between the Nationals and Liberals means the WAEC is sparing us the valuable insight that would be offered by a two-party count conducted between Labor and Nationals candidates. My own three-way results system is projecting Nationals candidate Scott Leary to finish ahead of Liberal candidate Tom Brough (who defeated Leary for Liberal preselection) by 30.1% to 27.6% and then giving him a 68.2% chance of winning the seat, but it factors in enough uncertainty about Brough dropping out to still give him a 17.6% chance. The remaining 14.2% allows for the possibility that Labor’s Rebecca Stephens may yet hold on.
Churchlands. One of the biggest stories of the evening was the prospect of spectacular failure for Basil Zempilas, but it proved illusory to the extent that his swing was locked up in seat’s early polling booth, which reported late in the evening. My system isn’t quite calling it though, and a swing of barely more than 3% looks to be the weakest of the election after Warren-Blackwood.
Fremantle. The WAEC conducted a Labor-versus-Greens preference count we will presumably never see, because the star performer here proved to be teal independent Kate Hulett, who trails Labor’s Simone McGurk by 33.2% to 28.8% on the primary vote. My own preference estimates, which split the Liberals 80-20 and the Greens 50-50, push Hulett to a solid 3.7% lead, but the ABC has other ideas, getting only so far as 0.7%.
Kalamunda. A lot of the biggest swings were in outer metropolitan seats, Kalamunda being the only one where the Labor margin wasn’t too big to matter. Liberal candidate Adam Hort leads by 272 on the two-candidate count, which is unlikely to change much when we get results from six booths that have so far reported only on the primary vote. A lot will depend on absent votes, which are hard to predict — they will include early votes cast outside the district, which I don’t believe was the case in the past.
Kalgoorlie. A three-way race between Labor, Liberal and the Nationals in which the current total of 5611 votes counted will shortly be swamped by the Kalgoorlie Early Voting Centre, encompassing 8241 votes pre-polls plus however many were cast there on election day. Here as in Albany, Labor, Liberal and the Nationals all have a chance, with my system presently favouring Labor.
Murray-Wellington. Due to some manner of glitch at the WAEC, no votes from this seat reported until late in the evening, by which time the person in charge of unlocking two-candidate counts had seemingly gone home. My preference estimates give the Liberals a 0.6% lead, but the ABC has it at 2.5%. The electorate’s early polling place is yet to report: it received 7167 early votes plus however many were cast there yesterday.
Pilbara. The WAEC conducted a Labor-versus-Nationals preference count here, but isn’t publishing it because Liberal candidate Amanda Kailis leads Kieran Dart of the Nationals 24.1% to 16.2% on the primary vote. My system still gives Dart a slender chance — he will presumably do well on One Nation preferences — but it is most likely a question of Labor-versus-Liberal that must presently be left to preference estimates, mine putting Labor 1.6% ahead, the ABC’s doing so by 2.1%.
South Perth. With a well advanced count including the two-candidate numbers, Labor’s Geoff Baker leads Liberal candidate Bronwyn Waugh by 345 votes, leaving much riding on absent votes. The postals counted so far only slightly favoured Waugh, and there’s a general tendency for late-arriving postals to be less favourable to the Liberals.
Warren-Blackwood. Labor’s Jane Kelsbie is a good chance of pulling off an extraordinary second win in one of the high-water marks of the 2021 landslide. Oddly, the WAEC has lifted the lid on the two-candidate despite the Nationals and Liberal candidates being in a very close race for second. This has the Nationals 400 votes in front, but the two-candidate count is lagging far behind the primary count, and my own projection that uses estimates to fill the gaps gets Kelsbie 1.4% ahead of the Nationals. There also remains the possibility that the Liberals will make the final count and sneak home.
For the Legislative Council, polling booths around the state got as far as they could with counting the first preference above-the-line votes last night. The numbers may well move around a lot, but at the moment there looks like a solid chance that the Greens will hold the balance of power in their own right, looking good for four seats with Labor in contention for 15. The Liberals at present look like winning ten and the Nationals two, with One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and Australian Christians looking good for a seat each, and the last seat maybe going to Animal Justice.
“Thank goodness he is at least four years from being a Premier (if ever) but undoubtedly when the knife is extracted from Mettam’s back he will be there to entertain.”
@Tricot
Realistically it’s eight years. I can’t see the Liberals winning the 2029 election there will be too many seats to make up in one election. I can’t see them doing a Annastacia Palaszczuk. You only get one Campbell Newman.
“Yesterday at our local booth there was a very pushy lying Liberal doing the HTV’s. ”
I really hate it when people do the aggressive campaign thing at the booths. Most people turn up, and just want to get it done. Respectfully offering a HTV card, and being polite whatever the punters reaction is to me the best way to go.
Libs at the booths i was at were pretty much ok. A few boofy boys at one putting up a bit of a front, but such are the young and enthusiastic ……. who often haven’t done elections before.
The odds of converting someone who has refused your HTV card are very low.
Tricot no don’t put that type of evil on the about Pied Piper going to Queensland honestly I Fought the liberals would do way better in Western Australia turns out we were all wrong peace
Puts things into perspective hey Entropy?
Debt to GDP
The question I have is are peepee and fbar one and the same?
What the Tories and their austerity DNA cannot stand is that Labor invest including into education and health plus into infrastructure
So, before these infrastructure projects come on line and significantly improve the amenity of Victorians going about their lives, they attack the cost of the projects
They only get one chance at that – and the completion dates near as confirmed by travelling around the City and the State
Then there is what parents see on school campuses and with hospitals
The Children’s Hospital for example is absolutely brilliant- as are the staff
I walked past a booth in Mundaring yesterday where at the time the Liberal, Labor and Green HTV people were standing next to each other having their photo taken together, so obviously no hard feelings there.
imacca says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 6:59 pm
It was very collegiate at the Mt Hawthorn Baptist Church with everyone making sure that everyone’s HTV cards were offered to all punters who wanted. Very good natured. We all lived within a couple of blocks and had plenty of local connections. The Greens lady (one of about 6 – they were out in force) had a lovely coconut slice.
Looking over the results, it seems the Greens did well enough in Bibra Lake, Maylands, Perth and Victoria Park to at least treat them as target seats in 2029 (after the redistribution of course).
Not much of a chance in Fremantle though, the Independent vote appears to be too strong this time around.
Also it’s videos like this that make me realise just how incredible Perth’s railway infrastructure is, and probably why WA Labor managed to get a third term with such a majority.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u45BXgXDhb0
“Also it’s videos like this that make me realise just how incredible Perth’s railway infrastructure is, and probably why WA Labor managed to get a third term with such a majority.”
while W.A. ALP did have its stuff ups …… the one zone public transport fares was very well recieved.
Before the counting yesterday I was worried about the One Nation vote, they had at least two people for all of the prepoll hours and both were pleasant and personable. Seemed to have significant support. Just reviewed Darling Ranges prepoll result and one nation out polled both the greens and the nationals.
But Labor won anyway so I’m happy
Hope Simone gets back in Freo. Looking at the ABC page its going to be a squeaker and some lessons will need to be learned. This seat i think has some Federal election implications, but will need to look at the outer Freo booths to work those out.
No upper house analysis yet?
My compliments to Ben Rau and William Bowe for this podcast on the WA state election results. Very clear.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/59377
I have a collective term for our psephologists in Australia. A Blessing of Psephologists.
They take their job seriously and don’t try to gild the lily, one way or the other.
QR
Only joking….It would be too hard on our Queensland friends.
They have their own batch of local idiots to deal with.
For the sake of it, I made up a preliminary pendulum of how the seats look like at the moment, assuming the numbers don’t change at all, which they will of course.
It does sort of show where the battleground seats will be in 2029, and that the Liberals and Nationals have a heck of a hill to climb to get even close to a majority.
Think you have some mistakes on that chart. I don’t see Rockingham anywhere and Riverton is definitely not at 62.6 for Labor.
Adda @ #117 Sunday, March 9th, 2025 – 11:15 pm
Indeed I have, since I made it in a bit of a rush. I’d be happy to make new charts once more solid results come in.
Fair enough, just stood out to me at a glance so I thought I’d mention it.
Okay, fixed up the pendulum with those errors corrected.
I think I’ll wait until it’s all finalised before making another one.
A little oddity: One Nation supposedly got 48% in Beverley (Central Wheatbelt). That’s 613 votes, out of 1323 total – there’s not that many people in the town! The next highest votes for ON in Central Wheatbelt are 19% in Merredin and Narembeen – their candidate’s a doctor who’s worked in both towns. I reckon someone at WAEC fat-fingered that.
imacca says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 8:33 pm
Hope Simone gets back in Freo. Looking at the ABC page its going to be a squeaker and some lessons will need to be learned. This seat i think has some Federal election implications, but will need to look at the outer Freo booths to work those out.
———
I don’t think it’ll have many federal implications. The federal seat of Fremantle is considerably larger and the state seat anchored in the City of Freo LGA is basically the “counter culture capital” of WA which isn’t really ever going to gel with the positions of the major parties.
From today’s West, a brilliant quote that sums up the WA Liberals:
“Saturday night’s result for the Liberals was the culmination of eight years of political laziness.”
Consequently, 2029 is now out of reach.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/wa-election-2025/wa-election-2025-lazy-liberals-fail-to-take-full-advantage-of-swing-shift-against-alp-c-17980603
The post mortem is kicked off by Hastie:
[‘Liberals ‘too focused’ on progressive electorates: Hastie
Back in Western Australia, where Labor has delivered its second-best election result in the state’s history, Liberal MP and opposition defence spokesman Andrew Hastie has delivered a scathing assessment of the party’s obsession with progressive inner-city seats.
With 41 of 59 seats secured by WA Labor and up to three seats still in play, the shock result has left both parties pondering its impact on the upcoming federal election.
Hastie is one of WA’s most popular Liberal MPs and his seat straddles Perth’s mortgage belt in the south and south-east.
In comments that will raise eyebrows for Liberals looking to unseat teals, Hastie said his party had been too focused on winning progressive inner-city seats while forgetting the opportunities in the outer suburbs.
“The Liberal Party has always stood for forgotten Australians, and in recent years we’ve been too focused on higher socio-economic electorates that are more progressive. But without success,” he said.
“Our greatest swings have been in seats where we’ve made the smallest investment.
“We need to remember our roots, and get back to fighting for working Australians in forgotten parts of WA.”] – SMH
The State Director of the Liberal party should resign purely for the failure to properly vet Candidates social media. While Branches have a lot of autonomy, the Head Office has to maintain effective oversight, governance and provide direction and administrative support. That’s clearly not happening effectively.
I had previously thought a Mettam-Zempilas leadership team would be the right path after the election. I now think Mettam should fall on her sword and a Zempilas-Huston leadership team should get a full 4 years.
Hearing very concerning things about the way in which WAEC carried out this election. Clearly it was a Sham election in a single-party state….
I have a question for JaylinWoodic:
When you put on your tin foil hat – is the hat actually made of tin, or is it really just aluminium?
Dawesville and South Perth are looking allot like the Aspley and Gaven of the QLD election. Labor agead, but not called for days. I would be calling them both for Labor, but I understand the want to be extra cautious.
The seats that are truly too close to call is Fremantle and Kalgoorlie
It seems my guess was right about the Upper House with 15 (+1 likely) Labor and 4 Greens having a workable left majority, plus 1 Legalise Cannabis for 21/37.
On the right it seems the Liberals are on track for 10 (+1 likely), the Nationals for 2, One Nation for 1, Australian Christians for 1, making up 15/37.
The last seat will go down to preferences, which won’t be counted until after data entry when all the below-the-line ballots are entered in. I’m guessing it’ll come down to either a second One Nation or an Animal Justice MLC.
We’ve finally got TCP numbers for Murray-Wellington. The Liberal has 52.1% and my projected margin is in from 2.4% to 1.8%.
Have there been any updates to Albany?
The counting seems slower than other in-doubt seats.
Confessions @ #132 Monday, March 10th, 2025 – 5:20 pm
Not today, they probably realise it’s going to go down to the line there so they’re most likely making preparations for the rest of the count to be as precise as possible.
Okay, thanks. I thought it was strange there hadn’t been any counting.
@Kirsdarke
Also in play at the moment for that last seat is the Independent Group, led by former Legalise Cannabis MLC.
Agree there’s no idea who will end up with it until they press the button. When the Lab/Lib reach their quota for their last seat will also play an important part.
Stuart B @ #135 Monday, March 10th, 2025 – 6:13 pm
Ahh, okay. I didn’t realise that was an actual ballot group, I presumed that was the rest of the Ungrouped Independents. I suppose they would be in contention for the final seat as well then.
There’s now a McGurk-Hullett TCP count in Fremantle, which suggests it will be very close. See latest update to the post.
I don’t watch or read much traditional media anymore so I might have missed the education campaign making sure people knew that their LC vote 1 above the line would mean their vote could be exhausted with no ticket vote preferences distributed on their behalf.
It is hard to know if a significant number of people will simply vote 1 above the line with or without being aware of the new system. Would a high proportion of unpreferenced above the line votes on mean too many ballots exhausting for a final candidate to be elected, or could enough ballots from voters who wrongly assumed there was still a ticket vote mean their preferred candidate in fails to get elected?
Cameron Pidgeon @ #138 Monday, March 10th, 2025 – 6:30 pm
In the end it probably won’t matter much this time around. Exhausted votes are simply removed from the count once they’re no longer relevant.
It will probably matter more in future elections when the vote is closer to 50-50 and the crossbench is much more important.
But of course this election with the new system will likely be closely studied to see how it all went.
WA seems to be the only state in the country where Libs can poll as low as Lab on 1st prefs and still win seats. Maybe a small collection of Queensland seats fit this category too.
In the 2 most populous states, Lib have to be streets ahead of Lab on 1st prefs to be in with even a shout on 2PP.
BTSays @ #140 Monday, March 10th, 2025 – 6:50 pm
A big factor was that the WA Nationals were running in much more seats than they usually do in order to bring up their numbers in the new Upper House voting system, which has at least worked out for them in that they were only reduced down to 2 seats.
BTSays @ #140 Monday, March 10th, 2025 – 6:50 pm
They benefit from the absence of a coalition agreement and the Nats can run in seats contested by Libs (and vice versa).
Kirsdarke/Confessions
Of course, makes sense. Thanks.
They’re leaving themselves open to being leapfrogged to the final count by strong independents with that strategy, due to leakage of prefs to each other.
Not that it seems to have occurred much at this state election.
I appreciate that counting is not final but unless I have misunderstood William’s summary the result is still 57/43 2pp to Labor with the Liberals not likely to reach 10 seats. Thats a landslide in anyone’s language. Three in a row!
NSW and Vic Labor policy people should visit WA and have a close look at what they are doing right.
https://thewest.com.au/news/albany-advertiser/wa-election-2025-labor-mla-rebecca-stephens-concedes-historic-defeat-ending-partys-24-year-run-in-albany-c-17988699
https://archive.is/ObPAK (no paywall archive version)
WA election 2025: Labor MLA Rebecca Stephens concedes historic defeat, ending party’s 24-year run in Albany
Labor incumbent Rebecca Stephens has conceded defeat, ending Labor’s 24-year run in the Albany district. But with a tight race between the Nationals and Liberals, voters will have to wait to learn the final result.
In a statement on Monday, Ms Stephens said that while the results had not yet officially been declared, “it is clear that WA Labor will not be able to retain Albany”.
I wonder what the odds are of a Nat vs Ind 2cp in Geraldton. Shane van Styn is about 3% behind Labor, and Greens prefs would widen that to about 6%. The rest (Libs + minors) got 23%; apart from 2% for Legalise Cannabis, most of that lot will have put Labor last, so he needs about a third of them to preference him over the Nats. Something like Nat 13% / van Styn 8% / ALP 2% would do it.
The Nats would still probably win if that happened, because they get most of the Lib prefs, but it’d be interesting to see what happened to Labor’s.
Leroy @ #145 Monday, March 10th, 2025 – 7:27 pm
Thanks Leroy.
Technical question about the “win probability” projection.
In Kalgoorlie, the Nats have a 3.7% chance of winning, compared to 14.8% for the Libs. Is this based on the chance of them closing the 0.7% gap with the Libs, the chance of them beating Labor if they get there, or a combination? Lib prefs to Nat tend to be stronger than the other way around, so I would’ve thought a ALP/Nat margin would be smaller than the current 0.9% they have against the Libs, leading to a better chance for the Nats.
And you’d be right. However, my model is going off the actual TCP count in determining Labor’s chances of winning off the Nationals if that’s what it comes to, whereas it’s using preference estimates for the scenario where it’s Labor versus Liberal. Which probably suggests that those estimates are being too harsh on Labor.
Geez Greens balance of power in state an easy damaging campaign federally for libs in WA as a hung parliament federally also looks likely with Greens a big chance for balance of power.
WA Voters do you really want Greens in that powerful position state and federal?