Click here for full display of Western Australian state election results.
Friday
Even slower progress in the count today. Labor has claimed victory in Fremantle after another batch of postals broke 637-488 in favour of Simone McGurk, pushing her lead out to 491. Finally some progress in Warren-Blackwood, where only rechecking occurred between Monday and Thursday. My system is still allowing for the possibility of either a Labor or a Liberal win, though far the most likely result will be that it goes to the Nationals. The Nationals lead Labor by 956 on the two-candidate preferred candidate count – the hypothetical chance of Labor winning would involve the Liberals beating the Nationals to second and Labor doing better out of preferences against the Liberals than they are against the Nationals. Thirty-six votes separate the Nationals and the Liberals on the primary vote, but the Nationals will surely gain as minor contenders are eliminated.
Thursday
The Liberals hold a 98-vote lead in Kalamunda after the two-candidate count almost caught up with the primary votes, and the first (but presumably not last) batch of absents broke narrowly in favour of Labor. My system is projecting the narrowest of Labor leads based on the fact that they did quite a lot better on postals in this seat in 2021 than is usual — the batch counted on election night slightly favoured the Liberals, but the general tendency is for later batches to get less favourable for them. One way or another, this seat seems up in the air, although The West Australian continues to report the Liberals are “confident”.
It was noted yesterday that Labor’s lead in South Perth was cut from 345 to 189 when nearly 70 votes at the Challenger Reserve booth were shifted from Labor to Liberal. It is apparent from comparison of the primary and two-candidate counts that they had this right the first time. A batch of absent votes also broke 902-791 to Labor today, leaving a published lead of 300 votes that almost certainly around 440 in reality, which is surely enough to withstand whatever’s still out there.
The upper house count isn’t too far behind the lower house now, though all the votes to this point are above-the-line. It’s looking like Labor 16, Liberal 11, Greens four, Nationals two, one each for One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and Australian Christians, and one in play. On the latter count, Animal Justice are on 0.43 quotas and One Nation’s second candidate will be on 0.35 after the election of the first, with the latter presumably to do well out of preferences from the Libertarians, Stop Pedophiles! and Shooters Fishers and Farmers (the latter of whom flopped after committing the rookie error of identifying themselves on the ballot paper as “SFFPWA”). An unknown quantity is “Independent” on 0.47 quotas – if most of this went to the ticket headed by former Legalise Cannabis member Sophie Moermond, rather than the ungrouped candidates, she too could be in contention.
Wednesday
Simone McGurk moved further ahead today in Fremantle, a second batch of absents breaking 1029-718 her way, increasing her lead from 31 to 342. Labor did badly out of rechecking in South Perth, where their lead fell from 345 to 189, mostly because nearly 70 votes at the Challenger Reserve booth were shifted from Labor to Liberal. Dawesville became the second seat to add absent votes to the count, which increased the Labor lead from 438 to 512 after breaking 1162-1088.
Tuesday
The big news (the only news, really) from today’s counting was that Simone McGurk moved into a 31-vote lead in Fremantle after absent votes broke 1390-1121 in her favour. I am not clear if there are more absent votes to come, but outstanding postals, of which there should be as many as 2000, seem very likely to favour McGurk. This puts Labor on track for a forty-sixth seat, and sets up a third successive state election at which no cross-benchers were elected to the lower house.
Monday
End of evening. Labor member Rebecca Stephens has conceded defeat in Albany, though it remains unclear if the winner will be Scott Leary of the Liberals or Thomas Brough of the Nationals. A point worth noting about the count for Kalamunda is that the seat had no dedicated early polling place, meaning all early votes were classified as absent votes, none of which have been counted yet. There are still three booths outstanding from a two-candidate count that currently has the Liberals ahead by 187, a situation that is unlikely to change much when they are added. The West Australian reports the Liberals “remain confident”. Since my brief review of the upper house on election night, both Labor and Liberal have improved enough to suggest they will win 16 and 11 seats respectively. That leaves the Greens assured of the balance of power with what looks like a certain four seats. The Nationals look solid for two, and One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and Australian Christians for one each. The last seat is harder to pick, although I would think Animal Justice well placed.
3pm. The WAEC is now conducting a two-candidate count between Simone McGurk and Kate Hulett in Fremantle, which so far has McGurk receiving 41.3% of overall preferences — the estimates I was going off earlier only had it at 34.4%. My projection still has Hulett ahead, but it might not be taking into account how heavily postal votes are going against her (1069 to 718), and will presumably continue to do so. With barely half the likely postals counted, the existing trend would be about enough to eliminate Hulett’s lead. So once again, the result is likely to come down to absents, which are difficult to predict. We also finally have a TCP count in Murray-Wellington, which suggests the Liberals are very likely to win.
Sunday night
I appeared on Ben Raue’s Tally Room podcast today to discuss the result, which you can access at the bottom of this update. I should also have a paywalled piece in Crikey later today (i.e. Monday). Developments from today’s counting, which mopped up mostly early polling places that didn’t finish counting last night:
Dawesville. My call of this seat for Labor got rescinded in the small hours of Saturday when a second batch of votes was added for the Dawesville Early Polling Place (presumably the first was election day votes and the second was the pre-polls), breaking 3109-2619 to Liberal and reducing the Labor lead to 438. As the first batch of postals favoured Labor slightly, Liberal hopes of closing the gap rest on what I’ve roughly calculated at around 3500 absent votes.
Murray-Wellington. Still no two-candidate count here, but the 4491 votes of the district’s early polling place reported early afternoon yesterday. This pushes my projection of the Liberal lead out to a seemingly formidable 2.4%, bringing it closer into line with the ABC’s 1.9%. Here as in many other places, this all hinges on the accuracy of our preference estimates. I note that One Nation polled an uncommonly strong 8.1% here, perhaps helped by their top position on the ballot paper. Donkey votes will go Labor as preferences.
Warren-Blackwood. I’m not exactly sure why, but the 1.4% Labor lead I was projecting last night has become a 2.6% lead for the Nationals, though there remains a theoretical hope for the Liberals.
End of Saturday night
This seat will be progressively updated over the coming week with updates on late counting for the Western Australian state election, starting with a review of the situation in the most doubtful seats as of the end of the night. A few general points before moving on to specifics. Accurate election eve polls, which in fact slightly overstated the Labor primary vote, had few predicting such a sweeping result. The minority of seats in which the two-party swing was below double digits included a rich haul of the election’s most keenly contested seats. The other outstanding feature of the result was the Liberals’ dismal performance in affluent Perth seats, of which Churchlands is only the most visible example.
With only three seats confirmed as Labor losses — Carine and Nedlands to Liberal, Geraldton to the Nationals — my system is calling 40 seats for Labor, four for the Nationals and three for the Liberals and twelve in doubt. However, I’m confident enough about Labor in Bateman and Kimberley and Liberal in Cottesloe that I won’t be detailing them further. I also think it very likely that Labor will lose Albany, though whether to the Nationals or the Liberals is unclear. If it’s the Nationals, the Liberals had better hope they stay ahead in the three further seats where my system rates them as such, as they may otherwise suffer the ignominy of failing to recover opposition status.
Albany. A close race for second between the Nationals and Liberals means the WAEC is sparing us the valuable insight that would be offered by a two-party count conducted between Labor and Nationals candidates. My own three-way results system is projecting Nationals candidate Scott Leary to finish ahead of Liberal candidate Tom Brough (who defeated Leary for Liberal preselection) by 30.1% to 27.6% and then giving him a 68.2% chance of winning the seat, but it factors in enough uncertainty about Brough dropping out to still give him a 17.6% chance. The remaining 14.2% allows for the possibility that Labor’s Rebecca Stephens may yet hold on.
Churchlands. One of the biggest stories of the evening was the prospect of spectacular failure for Basil Zempilas, but it proved illusory to the extent that his swing was locked up in seat’s early polling booth, which reported late in the evening. My system isn’t quite calling it though, and a swing of barely more than 3% looks to be the weakest of the election after Warren-Blackwood.
Fremantle. The WAEC conducted a Labor-versus-Greens preference count we will presumably never see, because the star performer here proved to be teal independent Kate Hulett, who trails Labor’s Simone McGurk by 33.2% to 28.8% on the primary vote. My own preference estimates, which split the Liberals 80-20 and the Greens 50-50, push Hulett to a solid 3.7% lead, but the ABC has other ideas, getting only so far as 0.7%.
Kalamunda. A lot of the biggest swings were in outer metropolitan seats, Kalamunda being the only one where the Labor margin wasn’t too big to matter. Liberal candidate Adam Hort leads by 272 on the two-candidate count, which is unlikely to change much when we get results from six booths that have so far reported only on the primary vote. A lot will depend on absent votes, which are hard to predict — they will include early votes cast outside the district, which I don’t believe was the case in the past.
Kalgoorlie. A three-way race between Labor, Liberal and the Nationals in which the current total of 5611 votes counted will shortly be swamped by the Kalgoorlie Early Voting Centre, encompassing 8241 votes pre-polls plus however many were cast there on election day. Here as in Albany, Labor, Liberal and the Nationals all have a chance, with my system presently favouring Labor.
Murray-Wellington. Due to some manner of glitch at the WAEC, no votes from this seat reported until late in the evening, by which time the person in charge of unlocking two-candidate counts had seemingly gone home. My preference estimates give the Liberals a 0.6% lead, but the ABC has it at 2.5%. The electorate’s early polling place is yet to report: it received 7167 early votes plus however many were cast there yesterday.
Pilbara. The WAEC conducted a Labor-versus-Nationals preference count here, but isn’t publishing it because Liberal candidate Amanda Kailis leads Kieran Dart of the Nationals 24.1% to 16.2% on the primary vote. My system still gives Dart a slender chance — he will presumably do well on One Nation preferences — but it is most likely a question of Labor-versus-Liberal that must presently be left to preference estimates, mine putting Labor 1.6% ahead, the ABC’s doing so by 2.1%.
South Perth. With a well advanced count including the two-candidate numbers, Labor’s Geoff Baker leads Liberal candidate Bronwyn Waugh by 345 votes, leaving much riding on absent votes. The postals counted so far only slightly favoured Waugh, and there’s a general tendency for late-arriving postals to be less favourable to the Liberals.
Warren-Blackwood. Labor’s Jane Kelsbie is a good chance of pulling off an extraordinary second win in one of the high-water marks of the 2021 landslide. Oddly, the WAEC has lifted the lid on the two-candidate despite the Nationals and Liberal candidates being in a very close race for second. This has the Nationals 400 votes in front, but the two-candidate count is lagging far behind the primary count, and my own projection that uses estimates to fill the gaps gets Kelsbie 1.4% ahead of the Nationals. There also remains the possibility that the Liberals will make the final count and sneak home.
For the Legislative Council, polling booths around the state got as far as they could with counting the first preference above-the-line votes last night. The numbers may well move around a lot, but at the moment there looks like a solid chance that the Greens will hold the balance of power in their own right, looking good for four seats with Labor in contention for 15. The Liberals at present look like winning ten and the Nationals two, with One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and Australian Christians looking good for a seat each, and the last seat maybe going to Animal Justice.
Some of the federal interpretations of these results here are very inaccurate in both directions.
Firstly, people vote very differently in state and federal elections, including in WA. In recent election cycles, state Labor have consistently outperformed federal Labor and the federal Liberals have consistently outperformed the state Liberals. Compare the 2017 state election (good result for Labor) with the 2019 federal election (good result for the Liberals), and the 2021 state election (exceptionally good result for Labor) with the 2022 federal election (good result for Labor).
Secondly, the WA state election polling, which was very accurate, showed a large swing to the Liberals. The most recent federal polling in WA shows a much smaller swing to the Liberals.
If you applied the state election *result* to the upcoming federal election, Labor would completely wipe out the Liberals. This is not going to happen. If you applied the state election *swing* to the federal election, the Liberals would essentially reverse their 2022 losses. This is also not going to happen. The result is clearly going to be somewhere in between, likely resulting in an overall small swing to the Liberals federally.
Interestingly, at a seat level, the state election has shown the swing from Labor to the Liberals ranging from small (inner suburbs) to large (outer suburbs). As Kos Samaras said on the ABC election coverage, this could have interesting ramifications for federal seats.
Bullwinkel – The Liberals attracted large swings in overlapping state seats such as Forrestfield and Kalamunda. This should strengthen the Liberals’ chances here and they are surely considered favourites.
Curtin – The Liberals underperformed expectations in the overlapping state seats, and even appear to have gone backwards in Cottesloe. The contest with Kate Chaney likely remains very tight so Curtin is not going to be as easy a Liberal gain as some have predicted.
Tangney – The swings to the Liberals were relatively modest in the corresponding state seats. Tangney is held on a small margin by Labor and this should remain a very close contest.
Pearce – As highlighted by Kos Samaras, the swings from Labor in overlapping state seats, such as Butler and Mindarie, were substantial. Pearce may be much closer than expected if the state swing is replicated to a much smaller extent federally.
Hasluck – Swings varied from smaller (e.g. Bassendean) to much larger (e.g. Swan Hills). Could be competitive, though Labor probably remain in a much stronger position here than in Pearce.
Swan – Swings against Labor were much smaller. Labor must remain heavily favoured to retain this seat.
Canning and Moore – The Liberals attracted some healthy swings towards them in the overlapping state seats for Canning (e.g. Mandurah) and Moore (e.g. Joondalup), which should further strengthen their positions in these seats.
Will the Liberals be smart enough to look at the results in Churchlands and see that giving Basil Z the leadership is the worst idea they could come up with? Between Thomas talking up relaxing gun laws to win seats and Zempilas’s popularity meaning Churchlands will remain at most marginal, the Liberals don’t seem to be learning any lessons at WA state level.
Zempilas is totally divisive, and people who don’t like him absolutely detest him – and there’s not a shortage of them in seats the Liberals would absolutely need to win to have any chance of getting back into power.
A couple of other things:
As a voter in Scarborough, I’m not at all shocked that Aubrey is looking like holding the seat – he’s seemed a really hard working local member, and I’m not one to usually consider that. I am though thinking that having a hard working backbencher as your MLA is actually a good thing locally
On the Scarborough “SurfCAT” service – not really sure why it needs to be free as it’s really just covering the western stretch of the 990 service, and people will still need to pay to catch the train to Stirling. But the bus going to Stirling, not Glendalough seems a very good idea. Scarborough though really needs some form of transport that encourages people not to drive there. The Coles there for instance is barely usable for locals due to there *never* being parking nearby – I’d even rather try and park at Karrinyup.
Oh and to anyone who came and bought a sausage sizzle at Doubleview PS yesterday, the P&C thanks you for coming along.
What mental gymnastics do you need to think WA gets GST from other states …
Federal Labor are going to go hard on Duttons GST stance so the liberals better be ready for that.
The Independent has a steep hill to climb in Fremantle. Liberals perferenced Labor ahead of the Independent. Labor currently ahead on primaries
How is Stokes’ mouthpiece travelling?
Noting the MediaWatch article on the promotion of the football caller by Stokes thru his media outlets
Stokes has a history of backing turkeys including the soldier he employed and supported
Is he also behind the LNP employee accused of rape – noting the legal expenses incurred?
And, if his latest project fails to enter the parliament, how does Stokes then employ him?
Back to calling the footy?
Basil Fawlty rings a bell
And in regard to solace from a swing to the Tories (if that is in fact the case) this is off a very, very low base so exaggerated
The same as the Target Cash Rate increasing from 0.1%
So from an unprecedented low base
I’m visiting WA this week, and one thing I observed across a range of seats was that something in the order of 80% of signs out, even in strong Labor areas, were for Liberal candidates. Didn’t seem to help them much.
Never seen a Dr Jags sign on anything remotely resembling a healthy lawn
Jaylin
You need to get out more.
Heaps of dr jags signs in healthy lawns within 500m of my house.
Hardly any Spencer Teo signs, healthy lawn or not.
Sneer all you like.
Winners are grinners.
@TheVannarchsays
A respectable loss would have been winning back all your traditional heartland seats, putting the 2029 election in reach. Yesterday, OTOH, was an absolute disaster.
What we’ve got instead is Labor winning ~45 seats, holding traditional Liberal seats & retaining (by historical standards) huge margins in traditionally marginal seats.
Only a black swan event now stands between Labor & a comfortable victory in 2029.
Arange, I tend to agree with Granny. Seats are still incredibly tight between the Libs and Nats. I think the ABC are overstating things for the Liberal Party there. I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes down to one seat difference either way. Watch out if the Nats pick up Albany and Warren-Blackwood.
Despite falling just short of forming a government Libby Mettam should be celebrated and honoured for her achievement in almost doubling the WA Liberal party caucus. Not many leaders can lay claim to such grandiose
As usual, the Reactionaries are in denialist mode. Instead of addressing reality, which is to note that the voters despise them, and asking why, the Reactionaries are trying to kid themselves into thinking their second worst results ever are actually not too bad.
They are laughable.
Supun.L , depends on who Green voters preference too as the Greens typically pick up as much vote as the Libs in Freo.
Yep Cos salad said it’s the millennials that are doing over the liberals in WA and elsewhere.
Also need to mention on top of 36 trillion USA in debt and another trillion in trade deficit each year the internal USA gov budget is over a trillion in deficit.
Business as usual cannot keep going for USA as interest repayments will kill them as it is on the socialist Victorian state government.
Yep Cos salad said it’s the millennials that doing over the liberals.
Also need to mention on top of 36 trillion USA in debt and another trillion in trade deficit each year the internal USA gov budget is over a trillion in deficit.
Business as usual cannot keep going for USA as interest repayments will kill them as it is on the socialist Victoria state government.
Hack, woke, Partisan says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 3:35 pm
Overall it was a bad result for the Liberals. No argument with that.
That doesn’t mean they should give up. It was coming off an extremely low base. They’ve increased their lower house seats significantly. There was never a realistic expectation of winning. The politicians and party can’t say that to the media – they are there to win it.
A 17.8% swing against the ALP is not something for them to cheer about.
I am quite comfortable to identify the positives that have come out of it for both State and Federal Liberals.
If you wish to choose to completely ignore them, then good luck to you.
I’d be very interested to see how a Teal Party candidate would do in both the Perth State and Federal elections after what has happened in Fremantle.
Grimace at 1.47pm. Yesterday a very angry couple came out of a polling booth saying that they had their Labor HTV on top of the four they were given and was told by the person crossing names off the roll that they shouldn’t vote that way. I believe they told the official in charge.
It is ridiculous that we have a Federal Electoral Commission and the State and Territory Electoral Commissions.
If you wanted to work on the WA election you had to do a job application to the WAEC. If you wanted to work on the Federal Election you have to submit a job application to the AEC.
Surely this duplication can be eliminated and millions saved.
pied pipersays:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 3:56 pm
Yep Cos salad said it’s the millennials that are doing over the liberals in WA and elsewhere.
Also need to mention on top of 36 trillion USA in debt and another trillion in trade deficit each year the internal USA gov budget is over a trillion in deficit.
Business as usual cannot keep going for USA as interest repayments will kill them as it is on the socialist Victorian state government.
=================================================
More made up facts by the pied pooper. USA Government debt 124% of GDP, Victorian Government debt 22.9% of GSP and Federal Australian Government debt 30.6% of GDP.
The Revisionist says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 11:12 am
The GST distribution is a farce. That’s why WA has minimum set.
Federal fiscal equalisation should be achieved through other federal revenue and the specific departments where they believe equalisation is necessary.
GST should be expanded to 100% of the taxable base (like New Zealand). That can be achieved fairly with measures similar to when it was first introduced – tax cuts and increased social security payments.
States should keep 100% of their GST. Federal equalisation can be achieved through the Federal Budget process.
Yesterday at our local booth there was a very pushy lying Liberal doing the HTV’s. She offered one to a bloke who declined and said the government was paying his apprentice son’s TAFE fees. She tried to argue that there was no such thing.
A few Nats voters took their HTV’s while loudly announcing they were gun owners. The lying liberal jumped in saying that one of the first things they would do is repeal the gun laws. She also regularly announced that voter ID would soon be a thing.
The icing on the cake was when an elderly lady in a wheelchair refused her HTV because of support for the live sheep trade and because of the way the sheep are treated at destination countries. The lady then copped an earful about the poor struggling farmers, you know, the ones who turned up to vote in their $120,000 landcruisers. The lady then loudly returned fire saying she lived in Cairo and elsewhere in the Middleeast and knew about what was going on there than big mouth ever would.
Must say I was over optimistic about the Liberal slated comeback in that I thought maybe 10-12 seats would go their way – but no – another shattering failure.
Took too much notice of the whinge fest from Liberal diehards in the LtothE page in the West
At least Ben Harvey – self-proclaimed guru of all things in the Stoke’s stable – is prepared to forecast political outcomes for the next 12 years…..
In putting the best face on the current Liberal debacle that he can he tell us that while the last four years of Labor government “have not been blighted by any scandal worth remembering…..”
“That’s going to change, and probably quite spectacularly…..”
Followed by these gems from the runes………..
“Ambition will inevitably trump loyalty at some point between today and the 2029 poll…Every Labor MP knows that a fourth term is unlikely.
“They appreciate that the next election will herald eight years in opposition…”
So, get your bets on……………..Labor until 2029……………….By 2029 Labor disintegrates and the LNP will be in power until 2037.
You saw this first courtesy of on Ben Harvey under the subheading of “Analysis”.
Get your long term bets on now!
Well, a great result for WA Labor, exceeding expectations and according to the ABC, polling.
Sorry to see my friend lose her seat (also forecast by the ABC), but she was up against the Liberals and the Nationals, who had preselected a Liberal rather than a National, so essentially two name recognition Liberals, and all those christian conservatives who presumably preferenced against her.
No surprises the Liberals picked a crank with a fixation on what people do in their bedrooms – they’ve been soaking in the religious fever swamp for a while now. The only surprise is there are enough people out there who are happy to be represented by such a person in parliament.
A bit off predictionwise
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/historic-night-for-wa-liberals-as-vote-counting-commences/ar-AA1Avfns?ocid=msedgntp&pc=ASTS&cvid=d722ea5c89be46ec8ca4979f0c6f19c2&ei=24
And a bit more……
After powdering up Little Libby as the lovely goddess to shatter the Labor monster by way of the West newspaper’s puff pieces, it will be fascinating what tactics the West will now have to adopt to get their boy Zempilas into the leadership chair.
I think the “Change the Leader to Basil” will not come too early.
He almost lost his cool on the couple of media events I saw and his bullying and arm waving tactics do not appeal to everyone.
I gather he is detested by some – and the very mediocre vote he got – maybe underlines that he is not seen as everyone’s golden boy.
I find him quite personable (by way of the visuals) and think he has done a fair job as Mayor of the City of Perth.
On the other hand, he has a big mouth and a shout-you-down approach to politics….bit like Trump?
Tricot
Reading some comments from Mettam today I get the impression she might not want to go on.
But all the other lib lower house members will be first timers!
Basil by default?
Somebody I know has had some dealings with the new member for Carine. He has, from all accounts, tickets on himself. Very expensive ones.
Liberals I know are looking for any sunbeam they can find in an otherwise pitch black sky but drawing attention to the decline in the Labor vote from the last election is not one of them. The significant comparison is with the election previous to the Covid one – the latter being a totally black swan election.
Less that half of the so called Labor fall in votes went to the Liberals. More significantly is the loss of vote to the PHON party and the very solid vote for the Greens. The return of seats like Albany and Geraldton to the Nationals is no surprise at all.
I saw Senator Cash going on about how the Liberal vote had gone up in the “outer suburbs” but unfortunately there were not many “outer suburbs” where this will make that much difference.
Labor usually holds fewer seats in WA than the combined votes of the LNP and the last Federal election was probably high water for Labor.
Having said this, it is possible that a couple of seats will be peeled off Labor when Albanese decides to go………..but the longer Trump goes about he wrecking ball process and the more closely Dutton tries to emulate the Trump Approach, then Labor may, in fact, hold all its current Federal seats.
Time will tell.
FUBAR says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 4:19 pm
Overall it was a bad result for the Liberals. No argument with that.
That doesn’t mean they should give up. It was coming off an extremely low base. They’ve increased their lower house seats significantly. There was never a realistic expectation of winning. The politicians and party can’t say that to the media – they are there to win it.
A 17.8% swing against the ALP is not something for them to cheer about.
I am quite comfortable to identify the positives that have come out of it for both State and Federal Liberals.
If you wish to choose to completely ignore them, then good luck to you.
I’d be very interested to see how a Teal Party candidate would do in both the Perth State and Federal elections after what has happened in Fremantle.
————
What positives are there for the Liberal party from this result? They have clearly failed by not recovering to even their 2017 showing. They have only barely won back some of their old heartland seats and don’t look like they’ll end up with a lower house tally of more than 10 seats. It looks like they don’t even have a solid heartland anymore. Basil who is lauded by some as their saviour but is clearly disliked by most voters. Their prospects for retaking Curtin and Tangney at the federal election don’t look promising and they can write off Swan.
“ A 17.8% swing against the ALP is not something for them to cheer about.”
_________
Goodness me, Foodbar. A 59.9% primary vote and nearly 70% 2PP are completely unsustainable numbers. The 2021 election was unique in modern Australian political history.
There are two things that are telling – yes – yesterday’s election WAS something for Labor supporters to hugely cheer for:
1. Although the counting isn’t complete it looks like Labor’s primary vote will be close to its 2017 result – which was itself a landslide that routed the Tories in historically unprecedented terms (ie. the Labor vote was higher than even Gallop’s two landslide victories a decade before); and
2. The Libs are only tracking for a 7% swing (and the NP about 1%). There is no pathway for government with the combined Tory vote stuck in the low-mid 30% range.
Dog act by Cook cutting in on Mettams speech last night,Arrogance already.
Libs need to go hard on debt and reducing state tax etc and the lib guy on ABC last night needs to be deputy to Basil.Also need to get stuck into public sector unions -labor relationship.And door knock.
Newspoll tonight?
almost an entire term of Donald J Trump between now and the next WA election
Depending on how that is received any thing could happen in terms of Baz’ electoral prospects and the now three election strategy
Things that might tip the balance in lib favour – Amber-Jade Sanderson being chosen as Cook’s successor before the next election. significant falls in resource prices
Anyone who thinks this election result means bad news for Liberal in Tangney and Curtin needs their heads read. Dutton may be unpalatable but Albo is very unpopular. lot of aspirational folk
The WA Liberals are the party of scolds. They’ve spent the last decade pretty much preselecting people who want to tell you who you can love and have intimacy with.
Which migrants are more deserving of refugee status than others.
Scolding those who accept the scientific reality of AGW.
Scolding Australians who don’t conform to their narrow (and getting narrower!) view of who and what an Australian is and how we should behave.
Yes, they will find pockets of the state where people appear fine with this nonsense, but I don’t see it as a winning electoral strategy overall.
I don’t know who wrote this, but they are wrong. I’m cheering and I reckon this is an historic victory.
This election was the Liberals’ to auto-correct back to something resembling normalcy from the unprecedented 2021 COVID election. How are they going with that? Not so good on the evidence.
Not one to make bold predictions nor trying to jinx, but on the basis of these results, Labor should expect to be re-elected in 2029, barring something extraordinary that tanks their voter support. And let’s face it, in these times there is every possibility that such an event will occur.
Colin Barnett mentioned the M word. Could we see a WA LNP?
“Colin Barnett told Nine News Perth last night that his former party may need to consider a merger with the Nationals to maintain relevance in Western Australia.
Extraordinary stuff for one of the Liberals’ most revered leaders in modern political history.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/time-is-ticking-for-wa-liberals-after-another-catastrophic-defeat-20250307-p5lhx1.html
pied piper, wa labor have recorded several consecutive surpluses whereas the last liberal govt racked up massive deficits while cancelling promised infrastructure projects. Maybe the wa libs should just try and be less shit for once?
It’s getting to the point where a merger seems inevitable.
I’ve always opposed a merger because it would result in the end of the WA Nationals, and unlike their counterparts in other states, they actually do try to represent the interests of rural constituents.
But if you are willing to preselect as your Nationals candidate someone who had previously run as a Liberal candidate, you aren’t really separate parties.
“ Well, a great result for WA Labor, exceeding expectations and according to the ABC, polling. ”
Antony Green embarrassed himself yet again by going off half cocked about the accuracy of Newspoll. He did the same thing in Queensland, where he pontificated about Newspoll overstating the size of the swing whereas in fact it slightly understated it.
The current projection on the ABC computer is 58.4. Newspoll said 57.5. That’s pretty much another bullseye statistically. Given a margin of error of 3.4 no one should be surprised by the result.
With the greatest of respect it’s actually time for Antony to retire. Hopefully Casey Briggs learns from Antony’s repeated mistakes and doesn’t talk about polling accuracy when fewer than 50% of the votes have been counted. In fact, better don’t talk about it at all and stick to your day job.
I’d recommend PP switch off from WA politics for at least 7.5 years. WA Labor will win 2029 and 2033 is not yet a certainty for the opposition. The increasing Millennial/Zoomer voting base will only hurt the Libs in their current form.
@Bulldog
You are in the minority. Antony Green is widely respected for his election analysis from the public. I think your comment at best is nitpicking. I think it’s sad to see Green go, and one of the last survivors from when the ABC used to be good – with Kerry O’brien hosting the election broadcast in the ABC’S hey day.
Who were all the idiots just yesterday making predictions of 12-18 or 20 seats for the Libs?? You’re sitting at 5.
Reveal yourselves !
Piper
No surprise that for many people you have little or no credibility.
Your claim that somehow Cook cut across Mettam’s concession speech was just plain wrong.
I too watched this and Channel 7 were trying to balance Mettam’s offering while keeping and eye as to when Cook would claim victory.
Mettam announced she had made a phone call to Cook some 30 minutes earlier, by which time Ch7 picked up Cook on his way to claim victory.
Mettam’s was 5 minutes or so into her speech when Channel 7, NOT Cook, went over – without any warning to pick up Cook.
Your contributions (at least the amalgam of them) are real pieces of work.
Your (predominantly) disinformation is called for what it is.
Why don’t you move to North Queensland? You are giving Sandgropers a bad name.
Well you’ve got your wish because he announced this year’s federal election will be his last.
Leftie Brawler….see previous posts – now, and some weeks ago….
I readily own up to suggesting the Liberals (and the Nats I guess) would make a comeback. The last State election was a black swan event.
I GUESSED it might be up to 10-12 seats – how the hell would I know?
That is has proved to be fewer is pleasing to my side of politics and certainly I feel no sense of being an “idiot”.
I am, in fact, astounded the Liberals did so poorly.
Just maybe the electorate is splintering faster than many of us thought? Who knows?
Abc coverage proved otherwise and Speers actually questioned on air Straight after the Dog act Rita saffron and rice why Cook Cut in and if it was disrespectful.
Worst panel I have ever seen on a election night last night.Abc news 24.
@Political Nightwatchman
I’m not saying that Antony hasn’t been great. I just don’t understand why he has felt the need to comment on polling accuracy recently when less than half of the votes have been counted. I don’t remember him doing that in his heyday. People like Kevin Bonham are much better at providing that assessment anyway, and he waits until the votes have been counted.
Moved between ABC and Channel 7 last night …….
Green’s presentation is hard to beat but the crew on the bench (politicians excepted) looked like work experience personnel.
Channel 7 had Carey and one end and Zempilas at the other.
Channel 7 organisation has vested interest in Zempilas so sensed over-indulgence to his presence.
Zempilas did not look that good last night when it appeared he was not going to get up. Started to shout and throw his arms around…..Trump like I thought. I did not realise what a big and loud mouth he as got.
Thank goodness he is at least four years from being a Premier (if ever) but undoubtedly when the knife is extracted from Mettam’s back he will be there to entertain.
Has Simone McGurk been confirmed as a Gold Sophie winner yet?
leftieBrawler @ #90 Sunday, March 9th, 2025 – 6:18 pm
Where is nadia88?
Well just now in the West Australian Dutton has come out swinging saying Cook ignoring Albanese helped Cook to win because Albanese is unpopular .
Albo has no claim on the win says Dutton.
OUCH!
By the way West Australian they have labor now on 41 win seats and abc still has 40.
Cos salad and the lib were good last night rest rabble.
Brian burke’s prediction in The West Australian yesterday, under the heading “The blue tide set to turn” was for the Liberals to get to 19.
Just missed.