The Sydney Morning Herald reports the bi-monthly Resolve Strategic poll of state voting intention in New South Wales records a further weakening in Labor’s already soft position, with a four point drop in the primary vote since the previous survey to 29%, compared with a result at the March 2023 state election of 37.0%. The Coalition is up one point to 38%, compared with 35.4% at the election, while the Greens are up three to 14%, compared with 9.7%. The results imply a Coalition two-party lead of a bit over 51-49. Chris Minns has nonetheless increased his lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier, from 35-17 to 35-14.
The past practice of this series has been to combine responses from two of the pollster’s monthly national surveys, but this time the report says the poll was conducted “between February 18 and 23” (the same as the period for this week’s federal poll) from a larger than usual sample of 1903. (UPDATE: The 1903 figure turns out to be a misprint from the print edition – the sample was in fact 1074, and the poll as usual combined from two monthly samples. An earlier version of this post wrongly put the Greens vote steady at 11%, rather than up three to 14%).
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of New South Wales state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
The Herald report on this poll has the Greens on 14, not 11, which I guess would make this poll a little less miserable for the ALP, at least on the 2PP. The union bastardry on the railways can’t have helped.
I’m intrigued by who will run for the ALP in Newcastle 2027. There’s no way I’m voting for Tim Crackanthorpe again, after the revelation of his undeclared family property business in the Broadmeadow redevelopment zone, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t run again. The high profile former ALP mayor Nuatali Nelmes has recently quit council, after she lost the mayoralty to a former ALP independent last year, maybe she’ll emerge as the ALP state candidate. As for the government’s prospects in 2027, I think it all depends on what happens federally. 2 years of Dutton should certainly improve the outlook for Minns.
Newcastle Moderate @ #2 Wednesday, February 26th, 2025 – 8:22 am
Is Kerridge a possible candidate? (I had a personal disagreement with him in June 1974 – so he wouldn’t get my vote even if I was in the electorate)
I think Ross Kerridge would be too old to be considering running.
Playing favourites with certain unions over others has certainly opened a can of worms for Chris Minns. I’m not aware that Mark Speakman has made any significant errors, but he certainly doesn’t seem to be getting much cut through. I struggle to see him winning an election, perhaps the ALP will hand it to him?
Puzzling
We are being saturated with Ads for the talentless Ros Knox ( Liberal) in Wentwort.. saturated … Gina is wasting her money ..
I’m not certain just yet, but I suspect the result in 2027 will be a re-elected minority Labor government.
NM: “The Herald report on this poll has the Greens on 14, not 11, which I guess would make this poll a little less miserable for the ALP, at least on the 2PP.”
Yep, the SMH shows Greens on 14, not 11. Perhaps the blogger confused the Greens with Independent, who are on 11.
Federal factors at play here, Minns is generally well liked, he’s got thumbs up for his handling of the anti-semitism events in Sydney. The ongoing train strikes/industrial action haven’t helped state Labor.
Democracy Sausagesays:
Wednesday, February 26, 2025 at 5:53 pm
“Federal factors at play here, Minns is generally well liked, he’s got thumbs up for his handling of the anti-semitism events in Sydney. The ongoing train strikes/industrial action haven’t helped state Labor”
Is there any data to back up these assertions? Or is it just based on feels?
Err Data the protest by schoolchildren defending the disgraced nurses etc says it all!
I wouldn’t take much notice, there’s clearly some Federal drag.
Minns will beat Speako comfortably once people start paying attention in about February 2027.
Presumably Kellie Sloane will become LOTO post election and be in with a fighting chance come 2031.
I agree about the Federal election influencing this, let’s see what it looks like in September
Mind you to only be ahead 51-49 when Labor has such a low primary really shows how the Teals and other independents give Labor a head start. They take a huge chunk of otherwise Coalition leaning seats.
Could it be that presiding over the worst mental health system in the developed world isn’t viewed favourably by the voters?
I wouldn’t count Minns out yet, but I long for the day that it dawns on the Labor Party as a whole that the ideology and approach to government of the NSW branch (at state and federal level) is far more consistent with being in opposition than in government.
Minns doesn’t look as weak as Albo, and that will probably be what saves him next time around, but NSW Labor’s aversion to the idea of doing things in government (at all levels) is a cancer.