The weekly Roy Morgan poll was quite a bit better for Labor than the Resolve Strategic and Freshwater Strategy results, crediting them with a 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 51.5-48.5 Coalition lead last week. Labor was up three-and-a-half on the primary vote to 31.5%, with the Coalition down three to 36.5%, the Greens up one to 13.5% and One Nation down half to 5%. This translates into a Labor lead of 53-47 using 2022 election preference flows, compared with 51-49 to the Coalition last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1666.
Also:
• The West Australian reports polling conducted for Australian Energy Producers by JWS Research has some eyebrow-raising results in three federal seats. The Liberals are credited with a crushing primary vote lead of 56% to 28% over teal independent Kate Chaney in Curtin, compared with a post-redistribution 41.4% to 29.8% based on the 2022 result. In the new seat of Bullwinkel, which has a notional Labor two-party margin of 3.0%, Labor’s vote is said to have crashed from 36% to 15%, putting them third behind the Liberals on 41% and the Nationals on 22%. Yet there is little sign of this implied swing of around 25% in Tangney, where the Liberal vote edges up from 40% to 41% and Labor is down only from 38% to 35%, suggesting Labor to be still competitive in a seat it holds on a 2.6% margin. The poll had a combined sample of 2529, and included further questions on “the Greens’ policy to ban new gas projects” and whether “the natural gas industry was important to WA’s economy”. UPDATE: The Australian further reports two-party leads for the Liberals of 65-35 in Curtin and 56-44 in Tangney, the latter being quite a bit more than I would have thought based on the primary votes.
• Two reports have emerged of unrelated seat polls conducted by uComms, Geoff Chambers of The Australian reporting that a poll conducted for Climate 200 credits teal independent Allegra Spender with a 57.2-42.8 lead over Liberal candidate Ro Knox in Wentworth, from primary votes of 32.6% for Spender, 35.0% for Knox, 14.7% for Labor and 10.8 for the Greens. The poll was conducted on February 12 from a sample of 1068. The report notes “a feeling in Coalition ranks that the seat, along with the northern Sydney teal electorates of Mackellar and Warringah, won’t be won back”, together with concerns about Nicolette Boele in Bradfield. The other uComms poll, conducted for the Australian Forest Products Association, credits Liberal candidate Andrew Constance with a 52.8-47.2 lead over Labor incumbent Fiona Phillips in Gilmore, with no primary votes provided. The poll was conducted last Monday to Thursday from a sample of 684.
• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports a minister saying there is “not a f**king chance” of a budget being brought down on March 25, with the popular view within the government remaining that an April 12 election will be called immediately after the Western Australian state election on Saturday week.
leftieBrawler @ #1540 Friday, February 28th, 2025 – 11:18 pm
Fyi, I am no longer a consistently prolific contributor because I took WB’s advice not to be, as I was getting into too many stoushes with other people from essentially sniffing my own farts and thinking they were French perfume. It was great advice and now I have a life outside PB.
I do love doing the Dawn Patrol though. And dropping by to check out various individuals latest inanity. 😉
David
Yes, you’re right. Bemused came back surreptitiously under another moniker, EGW (Edward Gough Whitlam). It didn’t last very long before William twigged and banned him again.
davidwhsays:
Friday, February 28, 2025 at 11:39 pm
mj I’m thinking of camping out at Urandangi. Hopefully that’s far enough so the Chinese can’t get me. It’s a bit hot out there but they do have a nice pub.
——
Sounds like a plan. Just go off grid while the world does its thing.
We love being off-grid camping. Only downside is places like Urandangi are hard to log onto PB.
That’s good to hear c@t. I remember it getting to a point where you appeared to be letting PB get to you emotionally. I recall the peak when you were fighting multiple fronts with the the likes of Lars and Andy E. For them this is a bit of fun and a bit of unwinding after a big important salary man working day. AE in particular should have known better considering who he is. But hopefully that is all in the past for you and you can now
contextualise PB what what it is.
USA wants to spread the f*cked around:
F.D.A. Cancels Meeting of Vaccine Experts Scheduled to Advise on Flu Shots
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/fda-flu-vaccine.html
Bystandersays:
Friday, February 28, 2025 at 11:42 pm
David
Yes, you’re right. Bemused came back surreptitiously under another moniker, EGW (Edward Gough Whitlam). It didn’t last very long before William twigged and banned him again.
============================================================
No, I was never Bemused. Have never posted under any other moniker, nor ever been suspended.
New thread.
Ven @ 11.42PM
If the Democrats were a serious political organisation, they should be in the process of pre-selecting candidates for the mid-term Elections, especially in Congressional Districts which are currently held by Republicans.
Call for candidates and conduct the Mid-term Primaries now, rather than waitig until 2026.
Hasten the process and whenever the Republican representative refuses to conduct “Town Hall meetings’ have a Democratic candidate ready to conduct one of their own.
Hopefully, they can turn greivance into electoral support and campaign on the fact that they are prepared to listen, and when elected, respond to their District’s concerns.
C@tmomma @ #1520 Friday, February 28th, 2025 – 10:11 pm
I had lunch with Mari a few weeks ago when I was visiting Sydney. Yes, she does pop in from time to time, particularly to read BK’s (and now your – for which many thanks) Dawn Patrol.