The monthly Resolve Strategic poll for the Nine Newspapers offers cold water for the notion that an interest rate cut might have improved Labor’s fortunes, giving the government its worst result for the term: Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 25%, the Coalition is up one to 39%, the Greens are steady on 13%, and One Nation is up two to a new high of 9%. Having earlier shied away from two-party measures, the pollster is evidently now regularly publishing respondent-allocated figures, which in this case have the Coalition lead blowing out from 52-48 to 55-45. Applying 2022 election preference flows would have it at 53-47.
There are only slight movements on leadership ratings, with Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton both up a point on both approval and disapproval, Albanese to 37% approval and 58% disapproval and Dutton to 41% approval and 51% disapproval. Dutton leads 39-35 as preferred prime minister, out from 39-34. The poll was conducted Tuesday (the day of the rate cut) to Sunday from a sample of 1506. A second opinion may be along later this evening from Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review.
UPDATE: No respite for Labor from Freshwater Strategic, which has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 51-49 last month to 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 41% (up one) and Greens 13% (steady). Buried beneath these numbers is Labor’s one bit of good news: Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 35% and down four on disapproval to 46%, Peter Dutton is steady at 36% and up four to 44%, and Albanese opens up a 45-43 lead as preferred prime minister after a 43-43 result last time. The report also says there was “a three-point increase in support for the notion the country was headed in the right direction and a four-point increase in the belief among respondents that their households would be better off in a year”. The poll is in the print edition of the Financial Review, and will presumably appear in the online edition in the early hours. It was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1038.
I should also make note of last week’s quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS: Liberal down one to 34%, Labor down one to 30%, Greens down one to 13% and Jacqui Lambie Network up two to 8%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Labor’s Dean Winter as preferred premier is out from 43-37 to 44-34. The poll was conducted February 11 to 18 from a sample of 1000.
Reality check for the Albanese cheer squad in here!
Of course Resolve’s methodology and findings will be endlessly questioned and doubted over the next few hours in this thread.
Honestly a freshwater’s going to have another polling hmm I might go 52 to 48 to the liberals because that’s also good poll for them but at the moment I think people need to calm down and not panic and also not Jump for Joy
Democracy sausage no what people are talking about is how apparently this one poll makes every other polling not true anyway going to say what I’m going to say here I still think it’s minority government
Yeah do not get excited 57-43 labor were up now 47-53 behind.
Trend not labors friend for 18 months just keeps seeping down steadily maybe drawing it out to May won’t be a good idea.
Maybe they polled people like renters and people who owned their home outright and pensioners who will not like a interest rate cut.
Hoping this poll gives the coalition over-reach style confidence.
Reposting…
Just looking at the Resolve – we have a problem with apples and oranges with these Australian polls all having different methodologies.
Because the Resolve Political Monitor asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they would write “1” on the ballot papers for the lower house at the election, there is no undecided category in the primary vote results, a key difference from some other surveys.
This also means the survey records their preferences in the way they would be allocated at an election, generating the two-party result of 55 per cent for the Coalition and 45 per cent for Labor using these self-nominated preference flows.
The result is narrower, however, when preferences are allocated in the way they flowed at the last election. In this calculation, the Coalition leads by 52 to 48 per cent.
So 52/48 is within MOE of the other polling.
Plus the PHON and Independents both on 9 is odd, given the Independents are sitting on 12 seats and PHON on zero.
And Tony Barry yesterday said Redbridge were picking up 49% of respondents not being firm in their voting intention.
Pied Piper I’d be careful because this it could be an outliner
Confessions I doubt it I think they’re probably looking at this like a outliner I think the labour and the Liberal Party probably think this is going to be a closer election then the polls say
We need to stop destroying the planet still.
Well, earlier today thr Labor diehards were celebrating a premiership after winning a game in Round One.
Now the Libs and doomsayers will no doubt get equally carried away. Equally silly IMO.
Having said that, this poll is not good for Labor. And the main source of the problem is clear: Albo. He comes across as a bit weak and as being more in it for himself than for the country. Australians like political leaders who cone across as being strong and committed. But they’re stuck with him IMO. And he’s capable of performing better than he has been lately.
And Dutton is still Dutton. Labor is surely going to run a scare campaign. And I reckon it might work: he is rather scary.
And the Teals mean that Dutton has a big mountain to climb to get to a workable minority government, let alone a majority in his own right.
So any celebration by the Libs and the doomsayers is rather premature. It ain’t over yet.
There does need to be data shown, but opinion polling should be consistent with other opinion polling week after week , but it has not been happening
And the opinion polling narrative by the lib/nats propaganda media units which is a myth that Labor primary vote going to the liberal party should be stopped
I like your analysis MB…
meher baba wow someone’s thinking the same thing I’m thinking yeah I think this is going to be a close election Labor should be worried and the liberal should be worried cuz we don’t know what’s going to happen with the seats there could be a strong swing to the liberals and seats they already have and vice versa that’s why I keep saying to people it’s going to be a crazy election night not one party is going to get a majority and if they do we’re not going to get big ones anymore maybe a one or two seat majority
Err I was being conservative they said 55-45 not 53-47 behind so I stand corrected hmm so this is below.
Labor were up 57-43 now behind 45-55.
Chinese all over the media via warships and Trump all over the media also this week and we get weak as piss Albanese.
Two other polls methodologies questioned recently but three polls now where labor is tanking are they all wrong?
I agree Meher. It is looking rather good for deep minority though and has for a while.
Still if you believe this poll – it’s 2 party vote of 63% as compared to 68.3% in the 2022 election. It’s looking good for the 2 party vote to decline on 2022.
I reckon Allegra will be in the box seat in less than 12 weeks time to force real changes a la John Hatton on both parties. Her power is that she can back either side and survive (unlike say Oakeshott or Windsor last time) and is likely to carry at least some of the cross bench with her.
Dr Bonham
ALP 25 L-NP 39 Grn 13 ON 9 IND 9* other 4
2PP 55-45 to L-NP respondent prefs
52-48 to L-NP last election prefs
*exaggerated cf election by being on ballot everywhere
outlier alert!
My last election estimate off those primaries is 52.7 to L-NP, Labor were lucky to get 48 in the released last-election figure.
My aggregate doesn’t dampen apparent outliers but because the last two Resolves were also poor for Labor it says maybe there’s something systemic going on here. Even so L-NP rises to term high 50.9 by 2022 prefs and 51.5 with recommended ON adjustment
meher baba says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 7:27 pm
Having said that, this poll is not good for Labor. And the main source of the problem is clear: Albo. He comes across as a bit weak and as being more in it for himself than for the country.
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There is no evidence at all of this
Hi all, first time commenter. This seems like a massive outlier, even bigger than Resole usually is. It is curious how the LNP primary vote seems to be consistent across most pollsters, whereas the Labor vote is so prone to wild swinging around. Regardless, this points to a minority government at this stage in the campaign.
Scott, what 2PP do you think the LNP and the ALP each need for a majority?
Scott says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 7:33 pm
meher baba says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 7:27 pm
Having said that, this poll is not good for Labor. And the main source of the problem is clear: Albo. He comes across as a bit weak and as being more in it for himself than for the country.
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There is no evidence at all of this
_________
It would be the net sats and ppm numbers, Scott. Dutton leads over Albanese on preferred PM in the last two Resolve polls. That is rough. It also differs to other pollsters which is intriguing.
repost
This resolve poll is quite problematic for the PM however unless there is a breakdown of where the samples were captured it isn’t really the killer blow.
I’d like to see some sample sets from a spread of the 18 seats held by cross benchers. Just like 1998 the 2pp is not that relevant, and perhaps even less so now. If the cross bench composition gets through the election relatively unscathed all Labor really has to do is win at least 65ish seats and then get to 76 with the majority of the crossbenchers guaranteeing confidence and supply.
Perhaps the only reason the PM hasn’t walked or been asked to go is due to his very progressive and urbane credentials when compared to the likes of the treasurer et al. The cross bench preference for him over any potential suitors maybe be all that is keeping him in the chair. Forget Chalmers or Marles- No QLD Rudd effect for the treasurer this time around. Perhaps Tony Burke however the news limited narrative over the last few days over the mass citizenship day may have fueled the resolve numbers.
Potentially 8 or more full weeks until election day. In that time there will undoubtably be more Trump dramas, Clive Palmer comedy and of course Labor will re run the 2016 medicare script.
Labor’s state executives will commission numerous internal surveys across most of the cross bench seats as well as any seat within a 5-8%ish margin nation wide to determine which need to be sandbagged and which can be cutloose. This began last week with sussex street commissioning some small sample size qualitative surveys in the Hunter, Whitlam, Shortland, macquarie and Werriwa.
I’d say by thursday at the latest next week they’ll have some numbers to work with to make sure said strategy is still viable.
with another disastrous number in Victoria the only option potentially would be Bill Shorten doing an about face. But for that to happen these surveys will have to be quite dire and Shorten would demand it be handed to him on a platter with atleast an 8 week lead in and a truce from the left. But as long as its suggestive that the crossbench is holding up along with Labor’s ability to get to 65ish seats things will stay the same.
Only polling people using rotary phones could be the problem
Griff
Peter Dutton numbers aren’t that much better , and resolve poll and freshwater poll I think is the only polls which has shown Peter Dutton to be in front , both lib/nats leaning polls
Things going for Labor.
1. Trump imploding
2. Dutton’s crazy policies or lack thereof – expect some zingers in these from Labor war room
3. Interest rates / low inflation / low unemployment – all heading in the right direction
4. Medicare
5. The crazies within LNP are bound to stuff something if/when they are ever put under the microscope
Things going against
1. Incumbents bloodbath worldwide
2. World lurching to the right
3. Albo seen as weak / not decisive / not cutting through
4. Has the electorate already made up its mind
5. Media but that’s always the case
Ultimately it comes down to the economy- and is the current trajectory worth changing government for. I would go on the last possible date as the economic data will keep improving giving voters a thought things are looking up so why change.
Question is – is it all too late.
If Jim was the helm, Labor easy.
Assuming a uniform national pendulum swing, Labor loses its 3-seat majority at 51-49 or worse, and the Coalition needs a uniform swing of 6% to get the 19 seats it needs to get to 76, so 54-46 or better.
At 55-45 they’d flip around 24 Labor seats, and presumably some Teal seats as well.
I think ur partly right leftie. The unpopularity of Albo has been pretty clear to anybody who is objective.
People don’t like the cultural lefty vibe.
Littlefinger is the only viable option in the time remaining – but would they be bold enough to do an emergency Colin?
You would have to think backbenchers like Sally Sitou and Jerome Laxale would be in full panic mode at the practical reality of being unemployed in less than 3 months. That more than anything may force the issue .
meher babasays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 7:27 pm
Having said that, this poll is not good for Labor. And the main source of the problem is clear: Albo. He comes across as a bit weak and as being more in it for himself than for the country. Australians like political leaders who cone across as being strong and committed. But they’re stuck with him IMO. And he’s capable of performing better than he has been lately.
_____________________
I don’t think he is capable of performing any better.
He is what he is. An ALP machine man who got lucky with Morrison and 3 terms of the Coaltion.
That line with Taylor on the interest rate cut and looking like his cat had been run over sounded terrible.
It was pathetic to listen to. Just really poor delivery.
His speech on Whyalla was all over the place as well.
OMG Bystander that bet is looking shakey.
Arange says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 7:39 pm
Scott, what 2PP do you think the LNP and the ALP each need for a majority?
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In Government the federal lib/nats combined primary vote majority of times need to be 42+ and 2pp 51.5% or above
in opposition federal lib/nats are currently on 55 seats
The federal lib/nats combined primary vote is likely 5/6% (43%+) short where it should be for. majority , 2pp 53+
labor 2pp 50.4% would be enough for a majority , that is my opinion
Oh seriously! Can we not ascribe outlier status to this poll?! This is clearly showing movement to the LNP and I want them to take this on board as further evidence that they are a lay down misere to win the next election with a handsome majority.
Is that too much to ask for?
This is a rouge poll.
Henry
It’s more blue than rouge I’d say.
Shellbellsays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 7:43 pm
Only polling people using rotary phones could be the problem.
_____________________
ROFL
Add it to the list.
Henrysays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 7:51 pm
This is a rouge poll.
__________
You mean a rouge pole surely.
It’s also starting to make me suspect that people may be underestimating preferences from One Nation and the right wing ratbag parties to the Coalition. A lot has changed since 2022 and those types of voters may be happier giving preferences to a party led by Dutton than they did with Morrison.
Taylormade
Yes, these are boomer jokes / one liners. All it does is add to the perception Albo is out of touch.
Bumbling Albo v Mr Potato Head, no wonder major parties’ vote on the decline
Fess. I wasn’t so struck by the margin in this poll: I doubt that the reality is anything like 45-55.
I was more struck by the fact that things had deteriorated for Labor since the last Resolve poll. That’s not good as it points towards a possible trend.
I don’t get the impression that people are unhappy with Albo because he is a ‘cultural leftie’. If he can even be described as such.
But in saying that I have no idea why his popularity has plummeted this term. It has been a spectacular reversal.
Scott says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 7:44 pm
Griff
Peter Dutton numbers aren’t that much better , and resolve poll and freshwater poll I think is the only polls which has shown Peter Dutton to be in front , both lib/nats leaning polls
________
Last Freshwater had Dutton and Albanese on level pegging as per Bludgertrack. It has only been the last two Resolve polls that have Dutton ahead on preferred PM so far as I am aware.
Looks like an outlier poll outside of the variable range. Also the respondent preferences look too good for the Coalition. However it’s a poll so it feeds into aggregates and perceptions.
Confessions the reason why people say this is an outlier is that it’s so far out of whack because all the other poles are literally 50/50 or 51 to 49 now if other polls were showing 55 to to 45 then yeah people would be like yeah the trends set labour gonna lose but at the moment it’s it’s still anyone’s game True Believer I think the election’s gonna be close as in no one gets majority government also the lurch to the right around the world seems to slowly stopping cos of what trump’s doing is what happened in 2017 when Trump got in there was a swing back to the left and I want to be surprised if it’s Swings Back to the left again
At least Littlefinger is already in Canberra – he could move into the Lodge immediately .
Griff says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 7:57 pm
Last Freshwater had Dutton and Albanese on level pegging as per Bludgertrack. It has only been the last two Resolve polls that have Dutton ahead on preferred PM so far as I am aware.
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Dutton must also be seen as weak , if he is around the same level
Kris yeah you could be right that one nation is preferencing the liberals again but the problem is are there only gaining support and seats they already have and not other areas listen I’m gonna be honest on this website it seems that people quick to doom or to Jump for Joy on this website I mean look at the Queensland election people thought it was gonna be a wiped out for the Queensland Labour and look at it now looks like David might be screwing it up quickly as it be
Lars at 7.32pm
I’m doubtful that Dutton will want to come out to play with Allegra. I suspect he’ll be wary about doing a deal with the Teals because he won’t be able to bring all his party with him, let alone the Nats.
What he’ll do is to be very passive and see what Albo manages to achieve. If Albo can cobble together a government then Dutton will happily take pot shots at it from the side and hope if falls over quickly.
If Albo can’t negotiate a majority easily, then Dutton might swoop in. But he will require the Teals to sign up in blood to his nuclear stuff. Will they be prepared to do that I wonder?
I think Allegra would. Not sure about the others.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 7:59 pm
At least Littlefinger is already in Canberra – he could move into the Lodge immediately .
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Littleproud’s political party is struggling to get more numbers than the cross benches
Boomer comments aren’t jokes in most cases. They are age discrimination. 🙂
Mundo stopped drinking two years ago.
Mundo is enjoying a Shiraz tonight.
Mundo wonders what the fucking point is anymore.
Mundo feels angry and betrayed by Labor’s fucking political incompetence which is going to end with Peter fucking Dutton in the Lodge.
Sorry.
I tried.
Anyway Lars Von Trier pick Allegra Spender would lose her seat to the liberal party , if the liberal party candidate primary vote gets to 43%
she would be one of the first teals to go , her primary vote was 35%
It shows how hard it is for the liberal party to gain seats , if the liberal party candidate primary vote can not get 43% or more in liberal and non liberal party seats
Non lib/nats candidates can win the liberal party seats with primary vote of less than 33%
Freshwater out 52-48 for ?
Coalition.
Uncle Phil says biggest lead yet.AFR pissed at the Age etc they are falling over themselves with labor going down the toilet.
Interest rate cuts anybody?
Says some green shoots for labor is that a gov With Bandt?