Ballot paper draws have been conducted for the Western Australian election and candidates published on the Electoral Commission website, though they will not be in a format I can make use of until later today (UPDATE: Now updated). I will then incorporate full candidate lists into my election guide. Antony Green crunches some numbers on his blog and finds nominations slightly down on 2021 for the lower house and dramatically down for the upper house, reflecting the abolition of the former system of six regions and the group voting tickets that encouraged preference harvesting.
There are twelve registered parties, each with an upper house ticket, and Antony Green has been able to surmise that the ten independent candidates include five grouped on to a ticket and another five in the ungrouped column. The formerly is presumably the grouping that brings together three cross-benchers incumbents who have broken with their original parties: Louise Kingston, formerly of the Nationals; Sophia Moermond of Legalise Cannabis; and the member formerly known as Ben Dawkins, who ran for Labor in 2021 but has been an independent since filling a mid-term vacancy, except when he had a spell with One Nation. Dawkins has changed his name to Austin Trump, allowing him to trade under the name “Aussie Trump”. There was a period when this grouping seemed to have split, Kingston promoting her wares through an “Independents for WA” website while Moermond and Dawkins-Trump made common cause as Vote Independent WA. Evidently the rift has healed though, with the former website now offline and Kingston back on the original site.
The names on the registered parties list are all familiar, with one conspicuous exception: Stop Pedophiles! Protect kiddies!, which is how the Democratic Labor Party has chosen to brand itself following federally inspired laws prohibiting minor parties from having Labor or Liberal in their names. The West Australian reports the other upper house cross-bencher, Wilson Tucker, was in talks to run with the Democratic Labour Party when it was still called that, but broke ranks when he learned of the new name and will now retire from politics. Tucker was famously elected to a Mining and Pastoral region seat for the Daylight Saving Party in 2021 off 98 first preference votes and a tight network of preference harvesting. Tucker became an independent when the party was deregistered in February 2023. Shooters Fishers and Farmers seem to have chosen to be identified on ballot papers, rather unwisely in my view, as SFFPWA.
This is the first election at which how-to-vote cards have been registered and published on the Electoral Commission website, a helpful practice from the perspective of the election analyst. For the upper house, Labor is recommending a second preference to the Greens, a third to Legalise Cannabis and a fourth to Animal Justice in city seats, but a second to Legalise Cannabis and third to the Greens in the country – prompting not unreasonable accusations from the Liberals that it is seeking to obscure its support for Animal Justice in areas sensitive to live sheep exports. The Liberals are recommending six numbers be marked, successively for the Nationals, Australian Christians, One Nation, Shooters and Libertarians. Labor are favouring the Liberals over the Nationals in three-cornered contests in Mid-West, Warren-Blackwood, Geraldton and Kalgoorlie. Neither side seems keen on independents: Labor has competitive contenders in Geraldton and Kalgoorlie behind both the Liberals and the Nationals, and the Liberals are favouring Labor incumbent Simone McGurk over teal independent Kate Hulett in Fremantle.
In other news, The Sunday Times reported this week that the Liberals are either managing expectations or taking a distinctly bearish view of proceedings, expecting to emerge from the election with between six and twelve seats. This suggests a swing of between 7% and 13%, as compared with the 14% indicated by the Newspoll last week. For Labor’s part, Dylan Caporn of The West Australian reports a source saying Albany will be “hard to win”, being “the only electorate in WA where the ban on live sheep exports is putting us at risk”.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of the WA election. The open thread for general discussion is here.
I thought I saw a headline that the Nats had lost a few candidates?
My estimates for how the Upper House will likely go, assuming the results match current polls (which I think is unlikely, probably more voting for minor parties at the expense of the majors).
Labor: 15 Seats
Liberal: 12 Seats
Greens: 4 Seats
National: 1 Seat
One Nation: 1 Seat
Other: 4 Seats
There’ll probably be more Crossbenchers than predicted here, given the quota for 1 of the 37 seats is about 2.63%. I reckon Legalise Cannabis, Australian Christians, and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are most likely to get seats.
Libs will cut through with todays announcement of a $ 2 billion rebuild of royal Perth hospital.
I doubt it Pied, hospitals need to be where people live, in the suburbs.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/02/western-australia-2025-can-liberals-get.html
Western Australia 2025: Can The Liberals Get Back To 2017?
A coupla days ago at work I drifted past the Ch 7 news in the lunchroom. Two political stories: the first was pretty much a free ad for the anti-vax Lib candidate in Central Wheatbelt, the second was a whinge about the replacement for KEMH being built in Murdoch (near FSH) instead of Nedlands (near SCGH and the new children’s hospital).
Obviously it’d be nice having the state’s major maternity and children’s hospitals co-located, but they probably looked at what a debacle the building of PCH turned into and decided not to repeat the experience. Half the noise is probably coming from well-paid doctors who can afford to live in the western suburbs and don’t want to spend an hour a day commuting elsewhere. If that’s the best the Libs can come up with, they haven’t got much.
KEMH being built in Murdoch (near FSH)
Hmm, build it pretty much right on the train line makes sense to me. Western suburb doctors can afford a nice EV to get to work and back, a lot of KEMH patients cant. Actually ties in nicely with the Metro Net builds i reckon.
Yep – on the train line, on the freeway, and close to Jandakot airport for RFDS flights. That whole area has gone from a sandpit to the largest combined medical precinct in the state over the last 20 years.
At minimum I expect the ALP to hold 40 seats, similar to it’s seat count post 2017 election.
ALP’s 2PP result in the 2021 WA election was 69.7% and the recent poll on this election showed ALP’s 2PP being 56%, so I’m assuming at max, there will be around a 15% swing against Labor (imo, there will be a swing towards the Liberals, but I don’t think it’ll be that big)
SEAT COUNT (BEFORE ELECTION; mainly here for reference due to redistribution)-
ALP- 54 (53 seats + Oakfield)
LIB- 2
NAT- 3 (I’m counting Mid West here)
SEAT COUNT (AFTER ELECTION)-
ALP- 43 (-11)
LIB- 11 (+9)
NAT-5 (+2)
OTH- 0
SEAT CHANGES-
– Nedlands, Churchlands, Carine, Scarborough, South Perth, Bateman, Dawesville, Murray-Wellington, Kalgoorlie flip to LIB from ALP
– Warren-Blackwood, Geraldton flip to NAT from ALP
– Mid-West gain for NAT
SEATS OF INTEREST (to me)-
– Riverton: Jags Krishnan, despite being from Mosman Park is an active candidate who is well liked and connected with the Indian community. On a lesser note, it’s one of the seats which overlaps with Tangney and could help me in determining Tangney’s fate, but using statewide results to predict federal results is a bit dubious considering these elections are fought on different issues, circumstances and have different candidates (some of which might have personal votes)
– Bicton: In addition to possible implications which I can use to predict for Tangney’s result, Bicton would be a seat to measure how well the Liberals are doing in this election, if they win Bicton, then they’re sure to win more seats like Albany, Riverton, Hillarys etc.
– Bateman: Implications for Tangney + this should be one of the seats Liberals should regain, if they fail to gain this seat they would’ve truly messed up.
– Kalamunda: This was a traditional Liberal seat before 2017 and with it’s current MP retiring, could flip back to LIB. Also considering this seat overlaps with Bullwinkel it could give us some indication on how Bullwinkel will vote in the upcoming Federal election.
– Cottlesloe, Churchlands and Nedlands: They’re all clumped together mainly bc I want to see whether a Teal can win one of these seats. However, there seems to be no indication that any independents will pick up a seat. There might also be some implications spilling over into the Federal electorate of Curtin, but I don’t think it’ll amount to much since Kate Chaney and these 3 teal candidates are different people campaigning in different elections on different issues.
– South Perth: A traditional Liberal area which I’ve put here mainly bc it’d be interesting to how well the Independent will perform here + South Perth has had an Independent MLA before iirc.
– Kalgoorlie: Again, interesting to see how the independent candidate would perform in this race. In addition, Kalgoorlie has changed party/hasn’t reelected a candidate in the last 5 elections so I wonder if it’s going to flip back to Liberal or vote in a Nationals candidate.
– Albany: Just to see whether Rebecca Stephens can hold the seat without the McGowan surge and if Labor can hold Albany without Peter Watson’s personal vote.
– Murray-Wellington: This was a traditional Liberal seat that wasn’t expected to be a Labor gain back in 2017. I’m touting this as a Liberal gain mainly bc I believe the McGowan wave was the main factor in keeping Clarke in office in 2021 and that she most likely would’ve lost her seat in a normal election. However I’m keeping an eye here just to see if Clarke has some sort of personal vote.
Interesting how people support a government that has corruptly attacked fairness.
Confiscating property from law abiding citizens with no compensation. Changing democratic voting rules to give themselves more voting power.
Labor in WA deserve to be kicked out for a decade after what they have done.
BW
Dr Jags certainly has a big budget for signs in Riverton. He is “out signing ” Spencer- Teo by a considerable margin in my neighbourhood.
Maybe it’s different in the riverside suburbs of the electorate where there are likely more liberal voters willing to declare their allegiance.
Nothing too surprising here, I reckon, apart from seeing how many of their formerly safe seats the Libs and Nats can claw back this time. Choosing Cook to succeed McGowan was the smart play – backing the best candidate over the one more popular with the hacks – and he should keep the Libs and Nats out of power for a fair while yet.
I think it’s a little bit odd that Labor would preference the Libs over the Nats in Lib-Nat races given the ideological history of the WA Nats, but it’s unsurprising that they’re not racing to do favours for the two ex-LNP independents, neither of whom stand out as people who would be particularly beneficial to have in parliament.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-16/disgraced-former-labor-mp-barry-urban-dies-/104942678
Not really to do with the election, but this is kinda sad. Apparently, on top of everything else, Barry Urban was involved in illegal tyre dumping, which somehow led to getting punched out and ending up dead. This guy’s life could be a really strange movie.
My rough predictions, assuming a 14% swing against Labor, reading up the pendulum. Just about all these seats have a first-term Labor MP, so they get a sophomore surge. (I reckon the swing will be higher in seats further down the list – marginal suburbia with absurd margins above 25%.)
Churchlands*, Warren-Blackwood, Nedlands, Carine, Bateman, South Perth – surely going back to the Libs. (Churchlands may just surprise because the Lib is Basil Zempilas, and they voted for Liz Constable for years, so it’s not quite a dead cert.)
Geraldton and Albany: both seats won by Gallop in 2001 and 2005. Regional seats can firm up for a good local MP (just ask Peter Watson). They’ve had four years to get known, let’s see how they do.
Kalgoorlie: absolutely unclassifiable. Safe Labor for decades until they lost it while coming to power in 2001, then the Libs did the same thing in 2008 (to John Bowler, then the Nats). Kyran O’Donnell got a mere 3% swing against him as a Lib MP in 2021 (the Nats and One Nation collapsed instead), and now he’s running as an independent. Having the conservative vote split three or four ways could be helpful for Labor. It’ll be fun to watch.
Dawesville: very marginal in 2017 (with a retiring Lib MP), but this area is basically one big retirement village (plus a bunch of FIFO workers). Back to the Libs.
Riverton: another seat that went Labor for the Gallop / Carpenter govt, and if Tony McRae hadn’t turned out to be in Brian Burke’s pocket they could’ve held it in 2008 (thus depriving Dean Alston of an excuse to draw Ned Flanders all the time in the West). If it’s good enough for Rossmcg it’s good enough for me – Labor hold.
Scarborough: didn’t exist before 2008, so it’s tricky to compare. It was created marginal Lib (on 2005 figures), although that’s a bit ropey because its southern half voting for Liz Constable instead of the Libs. Labor won the similar seat of Innaloo in 2001. Another possible hold for Labor.
Darling Range is a bit different from other seats in this part of the pendulum, because the Libs won it in a by-election after Barry Urban flamed out (hence the smaller swing from 2017 to 2021). It’s becoming more of a suburban seat because of population growth in Byford. Labor hold.
Fremantle’s a different kettle of fish because it’s a Labor/Green seat. Maybe people are finally starting to forget about Adele Carles, but I don’t see the Greens getting a 15% swing and they might not even make the top two (or get Lib prefs if they do). Labor hold.
Kalamunda: retiring MP, so it’ll be close. The Nats are running a candidate for nuisance value and might just manage to stuff things up for the Libs, but I reckon Lib gain here.
So that’s eight Lib/Nat gains, with another few possible. Libs make it to double figures.
A couple of other things:
Hayley Lawrance isn’t running in South Perth any more, so that’s just a boring Lib/ALP seat.
Bicton’s margin looks funny. I don’t understand how it can lose East Freo, gain Willagee, and not become safer for Labor. Might just be quirky numbers because of what a whitewash 2021 was?
Are there leadership debates in the WA election?
If so, when?
Please and thanks.
BTSays @ #17 Monday, February 17th, 2025 – 8:38 pm
I can’t find any announcements online, but in 2021 the debate was held between Mark McGowan and Zak Kirkup on Thursday 25 February, in the week before election day.
So if there is one this time around, it’ll probably be around a similar date, most likely Thursday 27 February. Although complicating matters is that both the Liberals under Libby Metnam and the Nationals under Shane Love have 3 lower house members each, so there may have to be some preliminary negotiations as to who shows up to debate Roger Cook.
Oh, I did find this, apparently there’s a WA Treasurer’s debate happening on Friday 28 February between Rita Saffioti of Labor and Steve Martin of the Liberals, hosted by the Property Council of Australia. It doesn’t say if or where it would be broadcasted though.
https://www.propertycouncil.com.au/event/treasurers-debate-was-economic-future
Kirsdarke
Thanks.
Perhaps Cook feels there is no advantage to him to agree any this time. Don’t give your opponent oxygen when they’re already in death throes.
Maybe Basil Zempilas and Libby Mettam can have one between each other instead? Get the inevitable Liberal Leadership challenge a head start?
Shame there’s not more statewide polling during an election campaign.
Nearly 3m people live here, surely it’s not that prohibitively expensive to do.
BTSays @ #22 Tuesday, February 18th, 2025 – 12:15 am
Yeah. Probably the best that can be hoped for is maybe a poll released this Sunday at the 2-week mark, then a final poll released on Friday 7 March.
But you never know. Freshwater, Resolve Strategic and Redbridge are relatively new polls that weren’t active for the 2021 election so they might drop something over the next couple of weeks.
Preference deals spell trouble for teal, headaches for Nats https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/wa-election-preferences-spell-trouble-for-teal-and-headaches-for-nationals/news-story/2bf93e13c328e17ca5b55f9cee4e6bce
FUBAR sez:
Wednesday, February 19, 2025 at 1:33 am
Subscriber only, apart from this snippet:
“The decision to preference Labor over the Climate 200-backed candidate for Fremantle was seen within the Liberal Party as a decision of principle over politics”
Would that be the same principle which sees PHON candidates placed ahead of Labor on other Liberal HTVs?
“Would that be the same principle which sees PHON candidates placed ahead of Labor on other Liberal HTVs?”
Probably, yes. Makes sense to me. PHON are a lot of things but a) they aren’t anarchists; and b) they have a lot more conservative policies than Climate 200 so there’s more synergy with the Libs.
I’m very happy with the Preference decision by the Libs in Fremantle. I think the LNP should always preference Greens last everywhere.
Disclaimer – distantly related to the ALP Member and Brother-In-law has been her campaign manager.