Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
I covered the February 23 German federal election in late December and late January. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post,
Polls give the conservative CDU/CSU about 30%, the far-right AfD 20%, the centre-left SPD 15%, the Greens 13%, the Left 6%, the economically left but socially conservative BSW 4.5% and the pro-business FDP 4%. In the last few weeks, there has been some movement to the Left and against BSW, so the Left is likely to clear the 5% threshold, while BSW may fall short.
The SPD, Greens and FDP had formed a coalition government after the September 2021 election, but this coalition broke down in early November, leading to this election being held seven months early. The CDU/CSU has said it won’t form a government with the AfD, but they may need both the SPD and Greens to form a government without the AfD.
Canadian Liberal leadership and federal polls
A new leader of the governing centre-left Liberals to replace Justin Trudeau will be elected on March 9. Preferential voting is used, with each of Canada’s electorates having 100 points and those points assigned in proportion to votes in that electorate. The overwhelming favourite to be next Liberal leader and PM is former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney. Carney has surged from 27% among Liberal supporters in the first Léger poll on January 13 to 57% on January 25 and 68% on February 10.
All Canadian general elections use FPTP. The federal election is due by October, though it could be held earlier if the Liberals are defeated after parliament resumes on March 23. The CBC Poll Tracker was last updated Monday, and it has the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 42.4-25.5 with 16.4% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), 8.1% for the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) (33.3% in Quebec), 4.1% for the Greens and 2.8% for the far-right People’s.
On these vote shares, the Conservatives are expected to win 205 of the 343 seats, the Liberals 79, the BQ 39 and NDP 18, with the Conservatives well above the 172 needed for a majority. In the last month, the Liberals’ vote share has increased from a low of 20.1% and the Conservatives have dropped from a high of 44.8%.
Conservative landslide likely at Ontario election
Ontario is Canada’s most populous province. Conservative Premier Doug Ford called an election for February 27, about 15 months early. The Writ’s current Ontario forecast is for the Conservatives to win 97 of the 124 seats on 44.6% of votes, the Liberals 14 seats on 28.3%, the NDP ten seats on 17.9% and the Greens two seats on 6.2%. This would be the Conservatives’ third successive term.
At the November 26 Nova Scotia election, the incumbent Conservatives were easily re-elected with 43 of the 55 seats (up 12 since 2021). The NDP won nine seats (up three) and the Liberals two (down 15). Vote shares were 52.5% Conservatives (up 14.1%), 22.2% NDP (up 1.2%) and 22.7% Liberals (down 14.0%).
US, UK and Ireland
In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, Donald Trump’s net approval in US national polls is currently +3.4, with 49.0% approving and 45.7% disapproving. His net approval has dropped from a peak of +8.2 at the start of his term.
The far-right Reform has surged into a tie for the lead with Labour in UK national polls with the Conservatives further behind. The Find Out Now poll, which has a pro-Reform lean, has Reform six points ahead of Labour in its latest poll. Keir Starmer’s net favourability is -33 or worse in most recent polls.
At the November 29 Irish election, the two main conservative parties (Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael) won a combined 86 of the 174 seats, two short of a majority. On January 15, a coalition government was agreed between these two parties and nine of the 16 independents. Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin was elected Taoiseach (PM) after winning a parliamentary vote on January 23.
Projected seats (charts taken from German wikipedia).
Union: 217 (+20 from 2021)
AfD: 145 (+62)
SPD: 116 (-90)
Green: 101 (-17)
Left: 51 (+12)
FDP: 0 (-91)
BSW: 0 (0)
This all of course would change if the FDP or BSW manage to get above 5% or the Left falls below 5%.
So nearly two-thirds of Germans favour a pro-European centrist politics. And the party most likely to win government is the party almost solely responsible for the supposedly high number of immigrants in Germany today. The most important question is will the centre-right abandon the centre and embrace the far-right. Wouldn’t be the first time in Germany of course.
I posted this on the open thread but it’s probably more relevant here:
It’s extraordinary to think that many Germans living in the central State of Thuringia and the eastern State of Saxony (and elsewhere in Germany) would support an anti-immigrant, extremist party whose aim is “to eliminate the free democratic basic order.” Most students of history would know the conditions that contributed to the rise of Hitler in the ’30s; I think we’re lucky that Germany is not subject to them now.
That said, immigration is an issue that won’t go away and is a rallying cry for those who think their way of life is untowardly affected by it. Moreover, the “Land of the Free” is turning into a rogue state, governed by a man who has few scruples, and little respect for the rule of law. Parties like Germany First are encouraged by Trump & it wouldn’t be lost on them that he has German antecedents.
New Canadian poll from Mainstreet Research taken from 6-13 February, (compared to their last poll released 15 January).
https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/66c8dfb086a015b3b519e988/67afd5f49b892ebcc79187be_Mainstreet_Canada_Feb_2025_Public.pdf
Conservative: 41% (-4)
Liberal: 37% (+11)
NDP: 11% (-2)
BQ: 7% (-1)
Green: 2% (-2)
PP: 2% (-1)
Other: 1% (+1)
Also including results for preferred Liberal Leader, among all Canadian voters.
Mark Carney: 42%
Chrystia Freeland: 26%
Karina Gould: 15%
Ruby Dhalla: 14%
Frank Baylis: 4%
And helpfully, how they would hypothetically vote with each Liberal frontrunner as leader.
Karina Gould: 42% Conservative, 33% Liberal.
Chrystia Freeland: 42% Conservative, 35% Liberal.
Mark Carney: 39% Conservative, 41% Liberal.
Ruby Dhalla: 43% Conservative, 30% Liberal.
Mark Carney certainly does seem to be making waves in Canada. I guess we’ll see how things go in the debates in the week after the next (probably in the morning on Wednesday 26 February).
Mavis @ #NaN Saturday, February 15th, 2025 – 4:00 pm
It’s most unfortunate that since the 1990 reunification, West Germany didn’t do enough for the East Germans and now there’s a strong feeling of resentfulness and being left behind among those states, hence why many of them are turning to the AfD.
Hi Adrian
I flashed through the post and saw Ireland mentioned. I thought I might be astounded that you were commenting on the election of Seanad Éireann (the Senate), the results of which were issued last week. However, quite understandably you were commenting on government formation.
Without a doubt the Senate is the most useless and powerless legislative body in Europe.
It can delay money bills for 21 days and ordinary bills for 270 days (this has happened twice in 90 years) BUT in certain circumstances a majority of the senate and 0ne-third of the Dail may petition the president to send a bill to a referendum (this has never happened and given the pro-government bias of membership is unlikely to ever happen).
A constitutional amendment was proposed in 2013 to abolish the Senate but the Irish people, in their wisdom rejected the referendum.
Its current total composition is:
11 nominated by the Taoiseach
3 elected by graduates of Trinity College, 3 elected by graduates of the National University
and
43 elected through proportional representation by an electoral college of all members of parliament and the county councils (about 1,000 electors) on syndicalist lines from the following vocational groups:
7 Administrative Panel
11 Agricultural Panel
5 Cultural and Educational Panel
9 Industrial and Cultural Panel
11 Labour Panel
The results were no great surprise:
Fianna Fail 19 (-1)
Fine Gael 18 (+2)
Sinn Fein 6 (+1)
Labour 2 (-3)
Green 1 (-3)
Social Dems 1 (+1)
Aontu 1 (+1)
Independent 12 (+2)
Ah, this is helpful, the Wiki article on the Canadian Liberal leadership election even lists the stated policies of each candidate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Liberal_Party_of_Canada_leadership_election#Official
Will JD Vance’s ‘Nazis are kind of OK, “the problem” is actually the European Centre’ speech in Munich yesterday likely to enhance the electoral prospects of the AfD, or – hopefully – create a last minute backlash?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #8 Saturday, February 15th, 2025 – 5:30 pm
I suppose we’ll have to see. The polls in Germany have been rather static over the campaign, other than a boost to the Left party mostly at the expense of BSW. AfD seems to be pretty solidly fixed on 19-22% in all the polls in February.
@Kisdarke- yes, the AfD vote seems solid, which is a bit like the Trump vote really: cookers ain’t for turning. I was actually more interested in seeing whether the two main established “Centre” parties – Union and SPD – may get a boost or not. … Or whether the various left alternatives may get a boost from folk who think that Union and SPD are ‘on the nose’ but are reminded of the existential threat that AfD’s boosting by the Trump administration really is.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #10 Saturday, February 15th, 2025 – 5:59 pm
Yeah, the biggest factor in this election seems to be what happens with the minor parties, the FDP, Left and BSW. If they get at least 5% of the vote or 3 Bundestag seats then they’re added to the mix with at least 40-50 seats each. If not, then they’re out with nothing. And with all three of them floating close to that 5% threshold, it’s going to be a while before the seats are allocated and a coalition government to form, assuming Friedrich Merz sticks to his word in not forming a coalition with the AfD.
I woke up today
I said NO to fascism for another day
Kirsdarke at 6.13 pm
Can Merz be trusted not to deal with the fascists? He is, by analogy, like Dutton not Turnbull, except with the Turnbull business halo. Merkel distrusted Merz so much she demoted him.
Current polling at:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/german-election-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-biggest-vote-of-2025/
Background overview, noting migration as a key issue, at:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/german-election-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-biggest-vote-of-2025/
https://www.dw.com/en/a-quick-guide-to-german-elections/a-4541194
Note that the fascists are much stronger in eastern Germany. See map of leading party at:
https://politpro.eu/en/germany
For background on Merz see this French summary:
“Angela Merkel was always suspicious of Friedrich Merz, whom she drove from office by ousting him as head of CDU parliamentary group in 2002. Friedrich Merz left the party in 2009. During his years away from politics, Friedrich Merz worked as a lobbyist and private wealth manager. He was a member of the board of directors of several companies (the HSBC bank, the German subsidiary of the Blackrock asset manager, the Cologne-Bonn public airport). He is now accused of never having held office as a mayor or regional councillor, and of never having been a member of a regional or federal government.”
https://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/monitor/6461-alternative-for-germany-could-make-a-major-breakthrough-in-the-federal-elections-on-february-23-in-which-christian-democratic-union-remains-the-favourite
@Dr Doolittle at 11:06pm
I suppose we’ll have to see. Polling in Germany has his party being in the front seat in forming government. Most unfortunately if he does end up forming a Union-AfD Coalition, there’s not much that can stop him, although such a move will probably backfire on him in the long term.
Kirsdarke at 11.13 pm
There is a more detailed provincial breakdown map of polling at this link:
https://yougov.co.uk/international/articles/51394-first-yougov-mrp-model-of-the-2025-german-election-shows-gains-for-right
The only parts of the east where the fascists do not lead are in Berlin.
It is likely that the Free Democrats will fail to make the cut, meaning the CDU and the fascists together will be above 50% combined.
Vance and Musk have ironically made it harder for the CDU to do a deal with the fascists, since, for all the German fascination with the US since WWII, they don’t like being told what to do.
The CDU has been saying it will continue to support Ukraine, whereas the fascists support Putin. That has been a major policy difference between them. Yet Merz knows that supporting Ukraine is about to become much more costly for Germany, because Trump favours Putin.
But Merz is much further to the right than Merkel was, including on climate policy and on wages policy, so he will be constrained if he ends up in a coalition with both SPD and Greens.
In other words, the media will report the election result as an overwhelming victory for the right, both the CDU and the fascists, but most probably Merz will choose the cramped option, meaning that he will have to compromise on his policies to get both SPD and Green support.
@Dr Doolittle at 11:27pm
I see, that’s somewhat reassuring. Especially in that from the current polls it looks like a Union-SPD “Grand Coalition” is in fact possible, as long as the two parties can keep above the 316/630 seat threshold for a majority.
I’m pleased to see BSW tanking in Germany, and will be even more pleased if they crash out of parliament entirely.
Wagenkecht is a nasty piece of work, and if the broad left manages to drum her hateful ass out of parliament, Germany will be a better place for it. She basically embodies all of the worst traits of the old-school Marxist-inspired left.
Another mass stabbing by a refugee this time in Austria a Syrian refugee who was pictured smiling as he was arrested.
Europe is ignoring its failure of importing masses of people whose ideology is one of hatred for the West.
Vance exposed their weakness.
Germans watching these stabbings and will vote against the parties that allowed this to happen.
In Australia we have seen the Fed labor government who has sacrificed community unity for Western Sydney votes and the zealots are running amok here as well.
Gee whiz – some people will politicise anything! There are 8 billion people in the world. Some of them are going to be complete dickheads. Some of them are going to do abhorrent things. The gumment can’t control everything.
(Some of them post on pollbludger.)
Essentially it’s going to boil down to how many of the three smaller parties get represented – if it’s 0 or 1, then the CDU/CSU should have the numbers to form a two-party coalition with either the SPD or the Greens, if 2 or 3 make it then a three-party coalition would probably be required (unless AfD is involved).
The Left needed the three-constituency rule to get in last time but on current polling probably wouldn’t this time. As far as I know, BSW and the FDP don’t have realistic prospects of getting in via this route.
“Will JD Vance’s ‘Nazis are kind of OK, “the problem” is actually the European Centre’ speech in Munich yesterday likely to enhance the electoral prospects of the AfD, or – hopefully – create a last minute backlash?”
Neither, because you’ve completely misrepresented Vance’s speech. Did you actually watch it, or simply read the media write-up, at least some of which was very poor?
GERMANY
AfD could end up not far off 25%. Vance is right that you can’t simply ignore a party that is taking nearly 1 in 4 votes in your country and representing a set of highly frustrated, ignored people, just because you don’t like much of what they say (hence ‘freedom of speech’ was his theme); and simply hope it goes away.
It won’t ‘just go away’ so better to come to terms with it one way or another, insulting them more will make them more resolute and drive their support up further.
Merz may just be treading this particular tightrope as well as can be expected.
For the governing SDs, one silver lining in polls is that they have consistently shown Herr Scholz is still highly competitive as preferred Chancellor – will that translate into the SDs exceeding the polls by taking the late deciders?
He did fairly well against Merz in the debate the other day, both held their own and articulated their points quite strongly I thought. Not sure if there’s more debates?
CANADA
I think the ‘poll of polls’ Adrian is using are really out of date, including for Ontario election. 338 is not good at updating averages quickly.
There has been a massive – yes, massive – shift back to the Liberals nationally due to Trump’s tariffs and the ‘rally round the flag’ impact this has had. The election is coming 6 months too late for Poilievre’s Conservatives who were in ‘record majority’ territory at the beginning of January.
Plus polls with Carney’s name in do significantly better, and he is a very serious contender to be PM after the GE.
“I’m pleased to see BSW tanking in Germany, and will be even more pleased if they crash out of parliament entirely.”
So would I. Dangerous pro-Russia individual, she is.
Merz is probably amendable to dealing with AfD. However, the majority of the rest of the CDU members probably are not. And the CSU in particular are not. Therefore I can’t see them doing a deal and getting approval of the require membership. Plus, it is amazing to see how unpopular Merz is with the public.
The SPD possibly don’t want to go back into government as a minor partner. Therefore if possible, I think it is possible we get the first CDU/Green government if the numbers are high enough. Otherwise I would suggest that SPD would want the Greens in a grand coalition, a so-called “Kenyan coalition” (Black, Green, Red).
The last couple of times that the FDP has gone into government they have subsequently had terrible election results. They should avoid government for awhile.
A little bit of movement in the latest weekly YouGov poll in Germany.
Union: 27 (-2)
AfD: 20 (-1)
SPD: 17 (+1)
Green: 12 (0)
Left: 9 (+3)
FDP: 4 (0)
BSW: 5 (0)
Other: 5 (-1)
So looking like a small but significant surge to The Left in the last week of the campaign, they should easily pass the 5% threshold for Bundestag seats.
“ Union: 27 (-2)
AfD: 20 (-1)
SPD: 17 (+1)
Green: 12 (0)
Left: 9 (+3)
FDP: 4 (0)
BSW: 5 (0)
Other: 5 (-1)”
____
Any ideas on how that might shake out in seat count, if repeated at the election Kirsdarke?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #27 Tuesday, February 18th, 2025 – 5:37 pm
With the Left gaining more seats at the expense of Union, it would make Coalition-building more difficult for Merz.
Off-the cuff calculations would be:
Union: 200-210 seats.
AfD: 140-150 seats.
SPD: 110-120 seats.
Green: 90-100 seats.
Left: 70-80 seats.
Union would probably be happier if the FDP break the threshold since they’ve historically been more comfortable in Coalition.
“ Off-the cuff calculations would be:
Union: 200-210 seats.
AfD: 140-150 seats.
SPD: 110-120 seats.
Green: 90-100 seats.
Left: 70-80 seats.
Union would probably be happier if the FDP break the threshold since they’ve historically been more comfortable in Coalition.”
_____
Any chance of a SDP-Greens-Left-BSW alliance forming government?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #29 Tuesday, February 18th, 2025 – 8:22 pm
Only if the polls are completely wrong and those 4 parties doing a complete 180 on their current platforms.
As things stand, Union+AfD would easily command a majority together, so they’d defeat any Coalition that doesn’t include them. And that’s not counting the fact of all the bad feelings between the parties of that alliance.
Earlwood – The SPD struggles to deal with the Left at the national level (due to policy differences in a lot of fields like economics, defence and foreign affairs) but manage at the state level as the differences are less in the local issues.
BSW would a bridge too far for the SPD and probably the social conservatism would not be welcome by the Greens.
Big chunks of the Union would not welcome going anywhere near the AfD and the recent CDU playing with them has probably resulted in a little bit of their recent decline in vote share.
My guess is CDU/CSU with either the SPD or Greens or both.
The most popular politician in the country is the defence minister, Boris Pistorius (SPD), who wins polls of prefer chancellor. Menz is dislike by the majority.
My German is not great, but I have found an interesting German site modelling their election.
zweitstimme.org. (‘Second vote’)
It has modelling for individual constituencies, and also for parties
Currently says chances of getting into the Bundestag (either through 5% threshold or three seats) are
– Greens 100%
– BSW 49%
– FDP 15%
– Linke 99% (this has increased a lot)
And chances that various coalitions would have a majority
– Union-Greens-SPD 100%
– Union-AfD 91%
– Union-SPD 53%
– Union-Greens 32%
It is somewhat disturbing to see at the top of their ‘erststimme’ (first vote) page a map of Germany with their predicted winners of each seat. The whole of the old East Germany is the pale blue of AfD.
Having spent some time in Germany over the last decade, the little time I spent in the ‘East’ makes this result not very surprising to me.
“ It is somewhat disturbing to see at the top of their ‘erststimme’ (first vote) page a map of Germany with their predicted winners of each seat. The whole of the old East Germany is the pale blue of AfD.
Having spent some time in Germany over the last decade, the little time I spent in the ‘East’ makes this result not very surprising to me.”
______
Perhaps it was too hasty to dismantle the godless Bolshevik regime keeping the Prussians in check? maybe after 2 cracks at world domination in 30 years it would have been better to keep them in servitude for say … another 500 years or so.
I had never heard of the Hertie School in Berlin, but they are the ones behind that site (with partners at the Universities of Mannheim and Witten/Herdecke). Here is a press release from January (in English)
https://www.hertie-school.org/en/news/detail/content/dynamic-forecasting-for-germanys-federal-2025-election
Thanks Rocket Rocket. I’ll use zweitstimme.org in the Intro to my German election live coverage next Sunday.
@Adrian look forward to the live coverage. Polls close at 6pm German time with exit polls and results quite quickly after (I know you know all this of course!), so not too much boring waiting.
Here is a good video on the voting method:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDyFAD6UVaY
Thanks Adrian. Looking forward to your coverage of tomorrow’s election. Having had several of our children live for some years in Germany (West!) in the last decade I am feeling very unsettled about a country that before then I had only had a peripheral interest in.
The polls etc from the East never surprise me any more – about ten years ago I remember talking to a woman in her 40s in Dresden who was reminiscing fondly about the Communist Youth Camps of her younger days in the old East Germany. There is still just such a divide that no demolition of a wall in Berlin seems to have been able to change.
I am hoping against hope that Musk and Vance’s support for AfD may increase turnout of the centre and left voters and push AfD below 20% nationally. Not that it would make much difference, but it just might be symbolic for the wider EU.