Two new federal polls:
• RedBridge Group has its first federal poll since November (not counting its MRP poll with Accent Research), which has the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred compared with a 50-50 result last time. On the primary vote, Labor is down three to 31%, the Coalition up two to 40% and the Greens steady on 11%. The poll also finds Coalition supporters are more firm in their voting intention (61% solid versus 34% soft) than Labor voters (51% solid and 39% soft). Attendant media coverage is making much of regional breakdowns showing a 9% swing against Labor in the outer suburbs, compared with 5% in the inner and middle suburbs, essential no change in provincial cities, and a 3% swing in Labor’s favour in rural areas, although the error margins on these individuals breakdowns are around 6%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1013.
• The regular weekly Roy Morgan poll likewise records the Coalition with a 51.5-48.5 lead on both the respondent-allocated and previous election flow measures of two-party preferred (which were respectively 50-50 and 50.5-49.5 in Labor’s favour last time). The primary votes are Labor 29% (down one), Coalition 40.5% (up two), Greens 11% (down half) and One Nation 4% (down one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1688.
The real question is, “has Karl Stefanovic (who I thought was sacked in disgrace?) come out with a true observation about where Peter Dutton is situated in Donald Trump’s backside”.
Asked by 60 Minutes presenter Karl Stefanovic if he was “up Trump’s arse”, Dutton, who has led a series of debates on cultural attitudes, laughed off the assertion and noted he had criticised Trump’s tariffs.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-i-m-not-australia-s-answer-to-trump-20250214-p5lca1.html
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 8:39 pm
The truthful answer would have been… “yes all the way”.. with Gina giving him a helping hand.
I’ve just watched MAFS and so have seen the promos for the Duttons on 60mins.
What strikes me about this is that it wasn’t that long ago (certainly within my lifetime) when Liberal MPs like Dutton would scoff at these puff pieces on frothy TV as being the province of Labor and the media socialite elites. Eg woke in today’s parlance.
And now that they realise they need these media appearances suddenly they’re all in to be on frothy, woke television.
Truly remarkable.
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 8:32 pm
@Socrates (8.21 pm). Yes the Strikemaster platform would be a good first step in a ‘conscious uncoupling’ from an over reliance on American military kit:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-04/strikemaster-could-soon-be-used-by-australian-army/104685190
As would cancelling the Apache attack helicopter contract. But of course, the most important act of ‘conscious uncoupling’ would be the cancellation of OHFUCKUS submarines …
”
Not going to happen if Dutton becomes PM after May election not that I have much hope a re-elected Albanese government will cancel AUKUS deal
Confessions @ #2954 Sunday, February 16th, 2025 – 8:49 pm
This is post-truth politics, they make their own rules and truths. And anyone that questions it is an enemy.
”
Scottsays:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 8:38 pm
paul A says:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 8:29 pm
Scott,
I think nadia88 caught you with your trousers down today between 4.28 & 4.37pm.
Might be time to give it up, eh?
——————————–
In what way
The mythical swing from Labor primary vote to liberal party vote hasn’t happen
its just not yougov, in majority of the opinion polls which have been proven wrong when the actual voting has occurred
https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48747-dunkley-seat-poll-shows-liberals-lead-51-49-in-upcoming-by-election
“Our poll clearly shows a significant swing away from Labor, but with a week of campaigning to go, the result is close to call.”
The Dunkley by-election projected vote
A by-election to elect the next member of the Australian House of Representatives in your electorate of Dunkley will be held on 2 March 2024.
Which one of the following are you planning to vote for?
Nathan Conroy, Liberal
40%
Jodie Belyea, Labor
33%
Alex Breskin, Greens
9%
Darren Bergwerf, Independent
7%
Chrysten Abraham, Libertarian Party
3%
Heath Mckenzie, Australian Democrats
3%
Reem Yunis, Victorian Socialist
3%
Bronwyn Currie, Animal Justice Party
2%
On the day of the by-election
Labor primary vote 41.1% swing to Labor 0.8%
”
Again Scott, that was 1 year ago. Things have changed a lot in this 1 year.
sprocket_ at 8:41 pm
Just making the simple observation that Dutton is disingenuous on insurance.
—————-
Sure, but so what? It’s a neat little wedge, and one that I’m sure the Government won’t be silly enough to fall for, but it’s pretty classic Dutton at the moment. He is much more adept at politics than I think a great many people (including probably the vast majority of commenters on this site) give him credit for. The whole ‘policy’ is pretty silly and very unlikely to amount to anything, but at the same time, who wants to end up being seen to be standing up for greedy insurance companies? Because the moment someone from the government points out that it’s not even really a policy, that’ll be Dutton’s response.
Sprocket at 8.43pm what a disgusting question for a supposed journalist to ask someone. Reading the article Dutton at least answered with some decorum. Pathetic.
Sprocket
“ The Spud doth protest too much, methinks…”
————————————————————-
Spud doth also lie too much, me thinks.
Night all.
Stinker says:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 8:55 pm
sprocket_ at 8:41 pm
Just making the simple observation that Dutton is disingenuous on insurance.
—————-
Sure, but so what? …’
=============
So Dutton is a lying cheat.
davidwh says:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 8:55 pm
100% appropriate from one Australian to another.. it’s the Americans that have those fake good manners & insincerity. Dutton didn’t answer the question.. with a NO, that was the easy one. but hey who would believe him.
Ven says:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 8:54 pm
Again Scott, that was 1 year ago. Things have changed a lot in this 1 year.
———————————
Yes , even the Victorian state Werribee by-election
Which the federal lib/nats propaganda media units , claim has implications for the federal election
The opinion polls were claiming labor primary vote was going to the liberal party
Showed
Labor primary vote were still not going to the Liberal party
despite the 16.6% against Labor
The liberal party primary vote under 30%
You got to admit Ven
The voting evidence has not occurred with the opinion polls stating Labor is losing votes to the liberal party
Dutton wont be breaking up no supermarket chains either. And the punters can kiss their energy rebates goodbye. Thats been confirmed.
Boerwar at 8:58 pm
So Dutton is a lying cheat.
—————-
Yes. He’s a politician, and with a strong populist bent.
It’s also effective.
Well, that may be a Labor line but it’s just not true – sounds like a firm denial to me.
Really is this the standard of journalism that is now acceptable. I don’t particularly like Dutton’s politics but that question was just plain wrong .
Fargo61 @ 6.04pm.
Thanks & yes I made mention on the Tas Senate comment (at 3.08 pm), that the Senate vote for the majors is usually lower than the lower house figures.
I still think QLD is trending 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN.
The witching hour has begun.
Will there or won’t there be one?
I’m definitely an enemy then.
frednk @ #2847 Sunday, February 16th, 2025 – 5:55 pm
A political campaign office.
KB reporting 51-49 to LNP
Newspoll: ALP 31 L-NP 38 Green 12 ON 7 IND/Other 12
51-49 to Coalition
Mr Albanese’s approval rating remained unchanged on a record low of 37 per cent. But with a one-point rise in dissatisfaction, the Prime Minister’s net negative approval rating rose to minus 21 which is the lowest since he became leader.
By comparison, Mr Dutton’s approval rating rose a point to 41 per cent, which is the highest he has achieved as Opposition Leader. His disapproval rating remained unchanged on 51 per cent, giving him a net negative approval rating of minus 10. This is the largest margin in Mr Dutton’s favour since the last election.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-majority-in-mood-for-change-after-just-one-term-of-labor-hung-parliament-looms/news-story/ebaca54b06d02478771f2cd04ebe580d?amp
steve davis @ #2964 Sunday, February 16th, 2025 – 8:59 pm
So is Free TAFE to fill our skills shortages with Aussies; and Indigenous Housing, Health and Education initiatives.
And that’s just what they’ve told us about.
So no change.
Oh a few people here that have been cheering for a 54 are eating humble pie right now.
Eine Albo Katastrophe droht!
QR, told you. No major changes. Libs down 1, indies up 1
To quote “Long story short, there is nothing in the latest Newspoll for either side to be excited about.”
You are right on the money with all this. Keep up your postings.
Despite all the hype of the earlier polling Newspoll still has the Coalition <40% primary. Still Labor minority government territory. Still a long way to May.
Cue the disappointment from the Coalition = 43 and onwards to a glorious victory brigade. 😐
C@t
Yes and the Libs bullshitted about helping people with cost of living measures and now they’re bragging about now increasing them. Labor need to campaign on these cuts hard, and every single day up to election day.
So the Libs can’t crack 40 even yet.
Take away the 3% Nationals part of the 38% leaves the Liberal Party on 35%PV
Sounds (still) very much small Labor majority or minority Labor government with and new LOTO for the LNP?
-21 Net Sat. Albo ist kaputt!
Lars Von Trier @ #2975 Sunday, February 16th, 2025 – 9:36 pm
Bollocks. Wish-casting.
I can put it in Latin if you want to try and seem on the same intellectual plane as you? But higher. 😐
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 9:40 pm
Lars Von Trier @ #2975 Sunday, February 16th, 2025 – 9:36 pm
“Eine Albo Katastrophe droht!”
Bollocks. Wish-casting.
I can put it in Latin if you want to try and seem on the same intellectual plane as you? But higher.
___________
With better grammar than that attempt at German, I’m sure 😉
Newspoll always runs with a week or two lag that the other polling picks up. Will be 52-48 in a fortnight in line with the noise and the Coalition primary 40.
With Trump dumping Europe for MAGA, maybe the Germans can get their act together?
Oh, maybe not such a good idea as German tanks heading east has been tried once before.
But then the Germans helped Lenin back in the day.
Such is the strangeness of world politics.
Slice it and dice it however you like – but there is pretty much a 3% swing baked in and people have stopped listening to Albo.
I dont think Scomo even ever got to -21?
LVT
Are you Hitlers lovechild?
So they can listen to Dutton now and all the cuts he is going to make.
Tricot @ #2980 Sunday, February 16th, 2025 – 9:39 pm
So the Libs can’t crack 40 even yet.
Tricot, Edwina is giving it her very best Lili Marlene shot in German to make it all about the Labor leader and not them who also have an unpopular leader. 😐
The electorate just so wants Dutton as PM….not.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 9:38 pm
Cue the disappointment from the Coalition = 43 and onwards to a glorious victory brigade.
============
C@t – I think it was an hysterical 51% heralded this morning, not 43.
Regardless, Labor didn’t get a boost from Parliament for this poll.
Libs down a tick, indies up a tick. Bit of a so so poll but I thought Labor may tick up a notch.
Labor primary getting baked in. Minority looms.
steve davis @ #2987 Sunday, February 16th, 2025 – 9:43 pm
Nah, Eva Edwina Braun. 😐
Newspoll does have form for overstating the Labor primary – I reckon sub _._ is still on track.
Labor going out after one term, defeated by the Liberals’ C team reserves.
Unfuckenbelievable.
Will Albo’s concession speech include an apology to the true believers.
And will he explain when exactly he decided to give up fighting stories.
nadia88 @ #2990 Sunday, February 16th, 2025 – 9:44 pm
So why was the talk about LNP at 43 during the day?
Anyway, you know and I know and anyone who is clear-eyed knows that just about everyone is waiting to see what the RBA will do on Tuesday.
New thread.
Was this in the script of The Succession?
James Murdoch..
In March last year, James found himself opposite his father in the Manhattan offices of Rupert’s lawyers over the siblings’ legal challenge to “Project Family Harmony”. Rupert’s lawyers peppered James aggressively during his deposition while Rupert tapped away on his phone. ’Have you ever done anything successful on your own?” James was asked.
James and his sisters were later referred to by the lawyers as “white, privileged, multi-billionaire trust-fund babies”.
But it was another realisation that shocked James about his father’s phone use.
“He was texting the lawyers questions to ask,” James told The Atlantic. “How f—ing twisted is that?”
N88 so basically it’s what I said months or weeks ago it’s going to be a not a good night for the Majors
Stinkersays:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 7:38 pm
Entropy at 7:36 pm
Any comments on Dutton’s plans for the insurance companies? This is what Peter C is currently posting about.
Seems destined for failure and continues his policy of socializing industry after his similar plans for the energy market.
——————
I haven’t any views on it. I’m deeply interested in Peter C’s views on the foreign buyer ban, though. Hoping he’ll let me know what he thinks.
======================================================
So between this comment at 7:38 PM and the one below at 8:55 PM, it would appear you formulated views on Dutton’s insurance proposal. Did you do some background research on the topic or read what more knowledgeable people, like Peter C, were posting here on this issue to crystallize those views?
Stinkersays:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 8:55 pm
sprocket_ at 8:41 pm
Just making the simple observation that Dutton is disingenuous on insurance.
—————-
Sure, but so what? It’s a neat little wedge, and one that I’m sure the Government won’t be silly enough to fall for, but it’s pretty classic Dutton at the moment. He is much more adept at politics than I think a great many people (including probably the vast majority of commenters on this site) give him credit for. The whole ‘policy’ is pretty silly and very unlikely to amount to anything, but at the same time, who wants to end up being seen to be standing up for greedy insurance companies? Because the moment someone from the government points out that it’s not even really a policy, that’ll be Dutton’s response.
But, but not so many posts ago some were claiming Labor will lose 15, 20, 60, 1000 seats in the next election.
ABC claims Dutton is in the “box seat” (according to a none poll they looked at) to become the next PM.
And yet, here we are with the most trusted of polls giving a margin 2PP lead to the LNP.
See one poster is suggesting the “next” Newspoll will be more favourable to the LNP.
Time will tell I suppose….
Newspoll (Pyxis Polling & Insights) has decided to adjust preference flows for the OneNation primary from now on.
Lars Von Trier @ #2992 Sunday, February 16th, 2025 – 9:46 pm
Bollocks on steroids. I don’t know how many times Mr Bowe has to point out to you that Newspoll is the most accurate polling organisation around. But of course you will continue to ignore that FACT.