Two new federal polls:
• RedBridge Group has its first federal poll since November (not counting its MRP poll with Accent Research), which has the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred compared with a 50-50 result last time. On the primary vote, Labor is down three to 31%, the Coalition up two to 40% and the Greens steady on 11%. The poll also finds Coalition supporters are more firm in their voting intention (61% solid versus 34% soft) than Labor voters (51% solid and 39% soft). Attendant media coverage is making much of regional breakdowns showing a 9% swing against Labor in the outer suburbs, compared with 5% in the inner and middle suburbs, essential no change in provincial cities, and a 3% swing in Labor’s favour in rural areas, although the error margins on these individuals breakdowns are around 6%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1013.
• The regular weekly Roy Morgan poll likewise records the Coalition with a 51.5-48.5 lead on both the respondent-allocated and previous election flow measures of two-party preferred (which were respectively 50-50 and 50.5-49.5 in Labor’s favour last time). The primary votes are Labor 29% (down one), Coalition 40.5% (up two), Greens 11% (down half) and One Nation 4% (down one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1688.
There is no doubt that Insurance premiums are on the rise – and have been for zonks
Simply, these Insurance Companies are for profit organisations, including listrd on the ASX
So as claims rise courtesy of (also) floods and fires they raise premiums to protect their profit
What they do to mitigate risk is refuse to insure AND they reinsure with the Global reinsurance businesses (so they lay off their risk by insuring themselves – as bookies lay off their risk by betting, not just taking bets)
And Dutton says he will force divestiture forcing “big” insurers to sell off some of their risk (it is a risk industry)
Except these smaller Insurance Companies operate in the very same Ocean the big insurers operate in (Ocean because it is a Global business)
They sell off their risk in protecting their Balance Sheets – and they sell that risk to reinsurance businesses which are Global Companies for the premium those Companies charge
Lloyds of London was a reinsurance business, the funds to cover any claim provided by “names”, hence the terminology “Lloyd’s name”
Then one day Lloyd’s came calling against the Bank Guarantees the Names were required to give to Lloyd’s
Malcolm Fraser was a Lloyd’s name, the call putting financial pressure on him (and he was not the only one)
The Bank Guarantee cost 1% to 1.5% per annum on the face value
When Lloyd’s called, there was a debt, not a liability
That debt attracted a cost of some 17% instead of 1.5% as a maximum – including for Malcolm who was not long out of government, the interest rate the inflation Hawke had inherited
It is a very great pity that Malcolm is no longer around to educate Dutton (who is clearly out of his depth and no doubt taking advice from the equally inept Sukkar)
Breaking up the Insurance industry – and the supermarket industry
What a joke – except that Dutton is not funny
He is dangerous with his racially inspired populism
The reinsurers will be having a real laugh – and courtesy of Nuckleer Pete’s climate denial jacking up their premiums for Australian risk
What is it you admire about Fraser Peter c?
Bottom of the harbour ? Smashing the shearer’s strike on his property in 1956 ? The dismissal ?
Attacks on Christians are rising in India by Hindu nationalists. Yet not long ago, Modi was complaining and making a huge fuss over some Sikh graffiti on Hindu temples in Australia. The man is a total hypocrite, as it is his supporters who are committing these religiously motivated attacks.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-16/christian-denied-burial-attacks-on-religious-minorities-india/104931944
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 7:14 pm
What is it you admire about Fraser Peter c?
Bottom of the harbour ? Smashing the shearer’s strike on his property in 1956 ? The dismissal ?
______________________________________________
I think he’s a low-Down, dirty, ruthless Vato, eh, but I like that, homes. I like that.
I’ve heard it said that a major group that would be likely to vote One Nation is failed business owners.
They eagerly attempted to win at the neoliberal world of capitalism we have now and they lost in both money and pride. And now in their humiliation all they want is to make everyone else as miserable as they are, and they can get this through PHON’s socially destructive policies.
Peter C, any thoughts on the ALP’s announcement today regarding the ban on foreign buyers of Australian property? I have a recollection that you had very strong views about it when it was Nuckleer Pete’s policy, just wondering how you’re feeling about it today?
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/white-privileged-trust-fund-babies-james-murdoch-breaks-family-silence-20250216-p5lcip.html
________
Me thinks that James and his sisters would be much better off if Rupert and Lachy succeed on appeal and Lachy get the reigns “ShitCo” and they console themselves with an equal share to the proceeds of the 2019 movie study sale to Disney. That way, Lachy will get the chance to blow it all when Rupert finally falls into hell and they will still be billionaires.
Stinkersays:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 7:29 pm
Peter C, any thoughts on the ALP’s announcement today regarding the ban on foreign buyers of Australian property? I have a recollection that you had very strong views about it when it was Nuckleer Pete’s policy, just wondering how you’re feeling about it today?
==============================================
Any comments on Dutton’s plans for the insurance companies? This is what Peter C is currently posting about.
Seems destined for failure and continues his policy of socializing industry after his similar plans for the energy market.
Err Albanese hugged Modi loves him even gave him a free trade deal that lets thousands of Indian students stay in Aus far longer than their degrees take to complete.
Mind you Albanese also signed a deal with NZ which has resulted in mass homelessness amongst Australians in Queensland as Kiwis flood into their preferred part of Australia.Unlimited .
Own goals.
Waiting on Uncle Phil to deliver maybe tonight in AFR a poll result.
Nice work.
Here’s your three more:
Curtin
Solomon
Lingiari
You’re welcome.
Entropy at 7:36 pm
Any comments on Dutton’s plans for the insurance companies? This is what Peter C is currently posting about.
Seems destined for failure and continues his policy of socializing industry after his similar plans for the energy market.
——————
I haven’t any views on it. I’m deeply interested in Peter C’s views on the foreign buyer ban, though. Hoping he’ll let me know what he thinks.
Stopping international buyers purchasing real estate doesn’t fix the underlying problem of a lack of supply of entry level affordable homes for first home buyers.
I don’t mind it as temporary measure but it should be time limited and there needs to be much more work on destroying the current planning and development regime and bringing in a new one that promotes fast cheap development of new land and new houses for first home buyers.
Capital is Global
The imposition on foreign investment into Australian real estate is not blanket
Look at the exceptions
And, yes, this is another matter where Labor is chasing the Tories down the race burrow (which, really, speaks to the Australian public or an element of it)
So do we also stop the flow of funds into the ASX from overseas investors – and if we did would be the outcome because for every action there is a reaction?
This election is shaping up as an election on race and Australians will pay a price IF Nuckleer Pete is elected (our streets will replicate the USA where people are randomly killed because of their race)
But back to Nuckleer Pete
These “big” Insurance companies he looks to attack are also very substantial donors to the Liberal Party
The phones will run hot tomorrow morning – and Nuckleer Pete will never mention this matter again
And the media will just drop it
And in regard expanding our cities as promoted above, there is infrastructure such as transport, schools, health facilities etc etc
And community space
So where is this land and what is it deployed to now (so produce)
It just is not that simple
For every action there is a reaction
So best to look at developments around existing rail lines as the start point
High rise is a feature of every major city
pied pipersays:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 7:37 pm
Err Albanese hugged Modi loves him even gave him a free trade deal that lets thousands of Indian students stay in Aus far longer than their degrees take to complete.
Mind you Albanese also signed a deal with NZ which has resulted in mass homelessness amongst Australians in Queensland as Kiwis flood into their preferred part of Australia.Unlimited .
=====================================================
We are all in agreement regarding the failed Conservative experiment that has occurred in NZ recently. There is significant buyer’s remorse over voting for the NZ National Party now in NZ. Hopefully , the Australian electorate realizes that a Dutton Government would be even more right-wing and destructive than the NZ National Party Government is, and we avoid making the same mistake as them.
I do appreciate you responding, Peter C. A touch more subdued than it was when it was just Nuckleer Pete’s policy, but nevertheless, thanks for answering.
This is a deeply gross thing to say, though, and incredibly hysterical:
“This election is shaping up as an election on race and Australians will pay a price IF Nuckleer Pete is elected (our streets will replicate the USA where people are randomly killed because of their race)”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Me thinks that James and his sisters would be much better off if Rupert and Lachy succeed on appeal and Lachy get the reigns “ShitCo” and they console themselves with an equal share to the proceeds of the 2019 movie study sale to Disney. That way, Lachy will get the chance to blow it all when Rupert finally falls into hell and they will still be billionaires.
___________________________________
the trust ends in 2030 anyway. The other siblings are free to sell their shares then, which will be another few billion each, on top of the couple billion each received after the Disney deal.
Lachlan won’t control it for long. Unless he can convince enough shareholders. Which is probably not going to happen.
We used to have socialized insurance but they all got privatized. In QLD it was the SGIO. Anyway unless you want Australian taxpayers to be the underwriters then even state owned insurance organizations have to look to overseas insurers to underwrite risk.
Not sure how that would control price.
The opinion polls has already shown
2019 revisit
Not one swing to the liberal party from labor primary vote has eventuated in an real time election has occurred, despite the opinion polls continue to claim this hypothetical swing
,its in the bin for their marginal seats predictions
dave says:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 7:48 pm
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Me thinks that James and his sisters would be much better off if Rupert and Lachy succeed on appeal and Lachy get the reigns “ShitCo” and they console themselves with an equal share to the proceeds of the 2019 movie study sale to Disney. That way, Lachy will get the chance to blow it all when Rupert finally falls into hell and they will still be billionaires.
___________________________________
the trust ends in 2030 anyway. The other siblings are free to sell their shares then, which will be another few billion each, on top of the couple billion each received after the Disney deal.
Lachlan won’t control it for long. Unless he can convince enough shareholders. Which is probably not going to happen.
_______________
Rupert was in the Oval Office last week w/ Trump? His Mum lived to a hundred – you’d have to think he’s a reasonable show of making it to 2030.
Peephole tragic:
“Wow, have you seen the Yougov polling?”
Scott (in his best Obi Wan voice, cloak and a wave of his hand):
“These are not the polls you have been looking for.”
Stinkersays:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 7:38 pm
Entropy at 7:36 pm
Any comments on Dutton’s plans for the insurance companies? This is what Peter C is currently posting about.
Seems destined for failure and continues his policy of socializing industry after his similar plans for the energy market.
——————
I haven’t any views on it. I’m deeply interested in Peter C’s views on the foreign buyer ban, though. Hoping he’ll let me know what he thinks.
=====================================================
While I see he has, often it is more respectful to comment on a poster’s current topic before launching into a new topic you want them to comment on. I know you take great credence in Peter C’s opinion, but the way you did it gives the appearance you were just trying to derail the current topic he was discussing.
I would have thought Scott was more Jar Jar Binks
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/02/preferences-help-non-majors-beat-major.html
Preferences Help Non-Majors Beat Major Parties Far More Than The Other Way Around
Labor just gave $800 million to the USA in exchange for absolutely nothing. If you want to see the future of AUKUS just watch Ukraine get flushed down the toilet like a used condom.
Entropy at 7:53 pm
While I see he has, often it is more respectful to comment on a poster’s current topic before launching into a new topic you want them to comment on. I know you take great credence in Peter C’s opinion, but the way you did it gives the appearance you were just trying to derail the current topic he was discussing.
——————
Thanks again for your gratuitous forum decorum policing, Entropy. But I have to say, after your vile statements yesterday accusing Centre’s mother of drinking while pregnant with him for a cheap shot, I’ll take your advice with the absolute credence it deserves – zero.
Lars Von Triersays:
Rupert was in the Oval Office last week w/ Trump? His Mum lived to a hundred – you’d have to think he’s a reasonable show of making it to 2030.
_______________________________
I’m not sure what would happen if he did hang on. I think that the trust was predicated upon him not making it to 2030 with Ruperts half share and votes being split between the siblings.
It’s possible that if the trust ends with Rupert still alive then the siblings could get their shares to sell, but Ruperts half share would just revert to him, to do as he pleases, possibly give it all to Lachlan. I’m not even sure if this is possible, but if it is then it would significantly strengthen Lachlan’s ability to control the 2 companies.
davidwhsays:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 7:48 pm
We used to have socialized insurance but they all got privatized. In QLD it was the SGIO. Anyway unless you want Australian taxpayers to be the underwriters then even state owned insurance organizations have to look to overseas insurers to underwrite risk.
Not sure how that would control price.
=======================================================
I suspect it would likely cause an increase . It would certainly result in more fluctuations as the AUD moved on currency markets.
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 6:19 pm
China Hawk Mick Ryan now starting to have doubts about America’s reliability as a security guarantor.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/trump-retreat-emboldens-putin-and-xi-australia-must-rethink-its-whole-us-relationship-20250216-p5lcgw.html
_________
This is my post in the comments section of the SMH:
“ Entrenched beliefs are hard to give up Mick. I suspect from this article you are only now starting to go through the grieving process over the likely withdrawal of the post WW2 American security guarantee. Prescient strategic thinkers like Hugh White started going through their own grieving process over a decade ago.
Australia needs to pivot away from a ‘contain China’ mentality immediately. If America can no longer be viewed as a reliable security partner, then Keating’s assessment that the defence of Taiwan not being in Australia’s vital security interests must be accepted. Even by you and other China hawks. That means we must be prepared to move away from US-Australian force posture exercises like the incessant ‘freedoms of navigation’ exercises in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait – which are only being undertaken to bait China into making a mistake as part of President Obama’s disastrous ‘Asia Pivot’.
”
If Dutton wins the election as the polls imply, then Dutton will double down being Trump lapdog and I can confidently predict that he will participate in Trump Gaza adventure and unlike Howard, who was careful and clever not deploy Australian soldiers in combat zones in Iraq war 2, Dutton will deploy Australian soldiers at harms length.
Stinkersays:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 7:55 pm
Entropy at 7:53 pm
While I see he has, often it is more respectful to comment on a poster’s current topic before launching into a new topic you want them to comment on. I know you take great credence in Peter C’s opinion, but the way you did it gives the appearance you were just trying to derail the current topic he was discussing.
——————
Thanks again for your gratuitous forum decorum policing, Entropy. But I have to say, after your vile statements yesterday accusing Centre’s mother of drinking while pregnant with him for a cheap shot, I’ll take your advice with the absolute credence it deserves – zero.
================================================
Which I apologized for within 10 minutes of posting them. So, who is the one taking cheap shots now?
Interesting analysis thanks Kevin.
On the Maugean Skate, everyone seems to want to be an extremist…
All salmon leases have bio-mass limits set by the state (liberal) government, it got dramatically decreased after an extreme event 10 years or so ago. There were several factors that lead to that event.
The biomass limit could be reduced further if it was found to not be sustainable, if the biomass limit was reduced to a very low level, it might not be economically viable anymore… there are no circumstances where a ban should be on the table rather than biomass limit adjustment.
The harbour has been deemed to have fully recovered from that previous event
Salmon companies globally spent a lot of money on research, on feed, nano-bubbles, gene editing(CRISPR), and evolving the salmon at adapt to higher water temperatures.
Tasmanian salmon companies have won awards for ESG by international bodies, who help maintain global standards.
The world, and the environment would be better if people ate more fish, and less red meat.
(No I don’t work for the salmon industry, I had shares in Tassal, and do hands on environmental work)
Oh, and Richard Flanagan is a dickhead who can speak flowery words, and none of this is going to change people’s federal voting intent.
”
sprocket_says:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 7:07 pm
The Munich Security Conference is forcing the Europeans to stand up for themselves, as Trump is putting NATO on life support.
https://youtu.be/LRbFPM36QUA?si=0d1Vcno_DpctkfTg
Here the foreign ministers of Germany, France, the UK and Poland explain their positions – and of course, in perfect English.
”
NATO, WTO, WHO, UN are on life support after Trump harikiri in the last 4 weeks.
That Australian establishment and people have so much faith in ANZUS and AUKUS and American leadership on world affairs.
And LVT, just stating FACTS
Which would be foreign to you and your mob of racist imbeciles
And in regard Howard, which government lost the bodies of service people who lost their lives in Iraq (having outsourced the repatriation of those bodies?)
Interesting challenge for Rupert.
Kirk Kerkorian made it to 98 and Sumner Redstone to 97. Can he outlast his deceased media billionaire rivals?
Apparently Redstone was paying for “dating introductions” at age 95.
Peter C, Perhaps your hostility to Howard was he shut down the tax effective arrangements allowed for Melbourne establishment types under Fraser (75-80)?
Sorry peeps. Had to post this:
https://youtu.be/v7czt61fen0?si=INzBUHyQ6DmbGpjm
davidwhsays:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 8:01 pm
Interesting analysis thanks Kevin.
===========================================
First past the post is clearly the worst voting method for minor parties, while multiple positions per electorate would be the best. The greater the number of those positions per electorate, the increasingly better it becomes for them.
And subdued how?
I have responded that this is a further example of Labor chasing the Tories down the race hole
The sad thing is that this chase to the bottom on racism is, at the end of the day, down to the Australian public
Which is why Labor is capitulating on such matters, all related to immigration therefore race
Perhaps, just perhaps you could call out your side of politics as racists
Because, until then, this is what we have
And Australia will become the USA
And LVT, stick to matters you know of – which, I agree, leaves little other than today is Sunday
Andrew Earlwood
This story is relevant to AUKUS and especially Australia’s upcoming decision to buy US HiMARS or locally produced Strikemasters. Estonia is so concerned the USA lacks the physical ability to deliver HiMARS that they are looking at other options.
https://breakingdefense.com/2025/02/estonia-wants-answers-from-us-on-himars-production-could-turn-to-other-options-in-months/
Peter C at 8:19 pm
Perhaps, just perhaps you could call out your side of politics as racists
—————-
You have me very wrong, Peter. I’ve never voted other than for Labor in my lifetime.
However, I think calling this policy racist is quite over the top, regardless of who proposed it. It’s probably going to be no better than marginally effective, and will likely have only very limited impact on house prices in the absence of significantly more action in the policy areas that contribute much more to prices on the supply side. But until such time as the policy is restricted to people holding certain passports or being of a certain ethnic background, while allowing foreigners from other places or of other ethnicities to be exempt, I don’t see it as being at all racist.
Scott,
I think nadia88 caught you with your trousers down today between 4.28 & 4.37pm.
Might be time to give it up, eh?
Dutton supermarket break-up idea applied to insurance companies seems to be ill thought through.
It is not the 4 dominant insurance companies ‘ripping off consumers’, but rather:
In Australia, insurance premiums are rising primarily due to the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events caused by climate change, leading to higher claims costs for insurers, particularly for home insurance, with recent reports showing increases of 14% or more on average in the past year; this is significantly outpacing general inflation and is putting pressure on affordability for many Australians.
Key factors contributing to rising insurance premiums in Australia:
Climate change impacts:
More frequent and severe natural disasters like floods, bushfires, and cyclones are causing significantly higher claims payouts.
Reinsurance costs:
The cost of reinsurance (insurance that insurers buy to protect themselves against large claims) is rising globally due to climate change events.
Coastal and high-risk areas:
Increasing population in areas prone to natural disasters, like coastal regions, leads to higher risk and higher premiums.
Google AI
Dutton could be honest, and point at his own climate science denialism as the core reason for insurance premiums rising – but he would rather gaslight the Australian public.
@Socrates (8.21 pm). Yes the Strikemaster platform would be a good first step in a ‘conscious uncoupling’ from an over reliance on American military kit:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-04/strikemaster-could-soon-be-used-by-australian-army/104685190
As would cancelling the Apache attack helicopter contract. But of course, the most important act of ‘conscious uncoupling’ would be the cancellation of OHFUCKUS submarines …
peter “C” has some very strange views on society.
A big fan of Fraser are yo?. Well peter C, he smashed Whitlam, so I suppose Fraser = good.
I gather you’re glad he smashed the Whitlam gov’t into fragments. I know I am.
Good to see you acknowledging that Labor is following the Libs around now too.
Libs have got their measure.
Labor is now even planning to re-open Nauru!
Here is Gaslighting Dutton on why house insurance is out of reach for many.
Dutton said there were “a number of factors” that had caused premium increases including “mitigation issues” and reinsurance issues that were beyond Australian control.
“But we need competition,” Dutton said. “We need depth in the insurance pool, and we need to make sure that we’re not being ripped off by insurance companies.
“As we’ve done with the supermarkets, where we have threatened divestment, if consumers are being ripped off, similarly in the insurance market, we will intervene to make sure that consumers get a fair go.
“Because at the moment, people are paying too much for their insurance, and what’s resulting is that people aren’t taking out insurance, so that moral hazard … is created for a number of reasons, and people just simply can’t afford to insure their car or their home at the moment.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/16/people-are-paying-too-much-coalition-could-break-up-big-insurance-companies-dutton-says
EU & Germany give Vance & Trump a polite FUCKOFF…
Hopefully the EU can save American democracy from trump & the Tech Bro
sprocket_ at 8:30 pm
Dutton supermarket break-up idea applied to insurance companies seems to be ill thought through.
It is not the 4 dominant insurance companies ‘ripping off consumers’ …
————-
It can be multiple things at once, though.
I get the enemy of my enemy is my friend thing, but let’s not be silly and pretend that insurance companies are upstanding corporate citizens who care about much more than maximising their profits. Dutton’s policy may well be cheap populism, but Albo would be brave to start defending big insurance companies.
paul A says:
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 8:29 pm
Scott,
I think nadia88 caught you with your trousers down today between 4.28 & 4.37pm.
Might be time to give it up, eh?
——————————–
In what way
The mythical swing from Labor primary vote to liberal party vote hasn’t happen
its just not yougov, in majority of the opinion polls which have been proven wrong when the actual voting has occurred
https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48747-dunkley-seat-poll-shows-liberals-lead-51-49-in-upcoming-by-election
“Our poll clearly shows a significant swing away from Labor, but with a week of campaigning to go, the result is close to call.”
The Dunkley by-election projected vote
A by-election to elect the next member of the Australian House of Representatives in your electorate of Dunkley will be held on 2 March 2024.
Which one of the following are you planning to vote for?
Nathan Conroy, Liberal
40%
Jodie Belyea, Labor
33%
Alex Breskin, Greens
9%
Darren Bergwerf, Independent
7%
Chrysten Abraham, Libertarian Party
3%
Heath Mckenzie, Australian Democrats
3%
Reem Yunis, Victorian Socialist
3%
Bronwyn Currie, Animal Justice Party
2%
On the day of the by-election
Labor primary vote 41.1% swing to Labor 0.8%
The Spud doth protest too much, methinks…
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has rejected claims he is Australia’s answer to US President Donald Trump, declining to weigh into the vexed gender debate as he pitches himself as a leader who would govern in the style of John Howard.
Asked by 60 Minutes presenter Karl Stefanovic if he was “up Trump’s arse”, Dutton, who has led a series of debates on cultural attitudes, laughed off the assertion and noted he had criticised Trump’s tariffs.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-i-m-not-australia-s-answer-to-trump-20250214-p5lca1.html
Stinker
Just making the simple observation that Dutton is disingenuous on insurance.
Blind Freddy can see that global climate induced disasters have skyrocketed reinsurance premiums.