Two new federal polls:
• RedBridge Group has its first federal poll since November (not counting its MRP poll with Accent Research), which has the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred compared with a 50-50 result last time. On the primary vote, Labor is down three to 31%, the Coalition up two to 40% and the Greens steady on 11%. The poll also finds Coalition supporters are more firm in their voting intention (61% solid versus 34% soft) than Labor voters (51% solid and 39% soft). Attendant media coverage is making much of regional breakdowns showing a 9% swing against Labor in the outer suburbs, compared with 5% in the inner and middle suburbs, essential no change in provincial cities, and a 3% swing in Labor’s favour in rural areas, although the error margins on these individuals breakdowns are around 6%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1013.
• The regular weekly Roy Morgan poll likewise records the Coalition with a 51.5-48.5 lead on both the respondent-allocated and previous election flow measures of two-party preferred (which were respectively 50-50 and 50.5-49.5 in Labor’s favour last time). The primary votes are Labor 29% (down one), Coalition 40.5% (up two), Greens 11% (down half) and One Nation 4% (down one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1688.
Looks like Albo has Trump eating out of his hand 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/feb/11/australia-politics-live-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-trade-tariffs-steel-aluminium-trump-question-time-election-campaign-cost-of-living-ntwnfb#maincontent
Is it time to start the pre-mortem yet?
Key Take-outs
1. Missed the COL crisis
2. The Voice
3. Too timid in response to a public mood for change esp housing
4. Underwhelming leader
5. Saying one thing and doing another – I came from public housing etc but living high on the hog, trips, junkets, Copacabana
6. Strange inability to rebut Dutton – eg being effectively tagged as “weak”
Guys
PLEASE READ what we post about TRUMP because LIBERAL PARTY POLITICIANS are on record saying that will emulate TRUMP in Australia when they come to power.
After my disruptive retirement from the Dawn Patrol, what has filled the initial void has turned out developing into a tremendous combined effort, the sum of which is all the more wide and rich.
Great work! Je ne regret pas.
Hmmm “under consideration “Albo sold his arse should never of been in this position if Rudd has not slagged off Trump and baited him.
Sad reflection on how much damage federal labor government did to US relations with Rudd.
Get him out of there!
Granny Annie I need my socks back!
Meanwhile at the VEC tally room
Zzzzzzzzzzz yawn zzzzzzzzz
Daily kos
Trump left the Super Bowl at halftime, when it became clear that his beloved Kansas City Chiefs were in for a beatdown. He didn’t even bother to watch Kendrick Lamar’s halftime performance (which MAGA seemed to hate) or congratulate the Philadelphia Eagles on their historic win, as he did for the Chiefs when they won the AFC Championship earlier this year.
It makes sense that Trump would hold a grudge against Philadelphia, though: The city overwhelmingly supported former Vice President Kamala Harris over him in this past year’s election. Trump also canceled a planned visit to the White House by the Eagles in 2018 citing a disagreement on standing during the national anthem. In truth, fewer than 10 Eagles players had committed to attending the White House event.
In fact, one of Trump’s only posts about the Super Bowl singled out … Taylor Swift. Swift endorsed Harris in the 2024 presidential election, and Trump hasn’t forgotten. In a late-night post to Truth Social, he argued that the pop star had a “tougher night” than the Chiefs after the team her boyfriend plays for lost by 18 points.
Vensays:
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 9:54 am
Guys
PLEASE READ what we post about TRUMP because LIBERAL PARTY POLITICIANS are on record saying that will emulate TRUMP in Australia when they come to power.
_____________________
What ‘we’ posted about Trump for the last 12 months turned out to be a whole load of crap.
Biden then Harris was supposed to win easily.
I won’t be making that mistake again.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 7:47 am
The opposition has walked back its vow to slash tens of thousands of federal government jobs, suggesting a Dutton government, if elected, will make the bureaucracy more efficient through “natural attrition”.
The Nationals leader, David Littleproud, said on Monday “hardly any” public service jobs will be on the chopping block if the Coalition were to win at the polls, in a significant backdown on comments in 2024 promising to dump as many as 36,000 public servants.
“The Nationals have made it clear that we will get rid of those in Canberra. There will be 36,000 public servants that will go. We don’t need more public servants,” he told 6PR radio in August.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/10/littleproud-says-hardly-any-public-servant-jobs-to-go-under-coalition-government-in-significant-backdown
”
Don’t believe that crap. You believe that as if a hole in the head would not harm you.
”
Taylormadesays:
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 10:05 am
Vensays:
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 9:54 am
Guys
PLEASE READ what we post about TRUMP because LIBERAL PARTY POLITICIANS are on record saying that will emulate TRUMP in Australia when they come to power.
_____________________
What ‘we’ posted about Trump for the last 12 months turned out to be a whole load of crap.
Biden then Harris was supposed to win easily.
I won’t be making that mistake again.
”
TM
So are you saying that Trump is not doing horrible, undemocratic things and breaking the rules of law, which is the cornerstone of democracy.
I know you don’t want to read what Trump does because you want Dutton to be in power.
BKsays:
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 9:59 am
After my disruptive retirement from the Dawn Patrol, what has filled the initial void has turned out developing into a tremendous combined effort, the sum of which is all the more wide and rich.
Great work! Je ne regret pas.
__________________________
What you started BK with the Dawn Patrol was always required reading. Having more people produce daily wraps means that it is more resilient (not relying on a sole person) and more diverse.
Perhaps we should apply that logic to newspapers, TV and Radio stations….
Doing the work that matters, dick togs has unbanned plastic straws – cites paper straws exploding, and plastic straws not troubling ‘a shark’ in signing the eo.
Holdenhillbilly @ #39 Tuesday, February 11th, 2025 – 8:35 am
Looking at polls since her rise to the leadership, I am starting to feel like my initial gut instinct might be true: that Kemi Badenoch will never be PM of the United Kingdom. Not because Britons are “too smart” for that or because Starmer and Labour will crush her but because the key voters of what is becoming the modern conservative base over there (a coalition of reactionaries from working class and rural backgrounds) are strictly identarian in nature and, regardless of what she says or what her policies are, cannot get past her being a black woman and how much they would hate one of her “kind” to be PM.
This is why Reform continue to grow in support. They’re effectively gunning for the same cohort but Reform, as well as having a bit more pedigree in the area (they also don’t have a wing of pro-Europe members and moderates anchored to them), Reform figures look the part (i.e. they’re white “true” Brits.)
As I previously said during the leadership election: If the Tories want to have a shot to win government again and not be destroyed by Reform, they need someone who sounds like Badenoch but looks like Jenrick.
Mavis @ #48 Tuesday, February 11th, 2025 – 9:37 am
The constitution is about checks and balances between the three arms – defying the courts would be an impeachable offence BUT conviction requires 67 senators – are there enough honest Republican senators?
US President Donald Trump has slapped 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, insisting there will be “no exemptions” despite his phone call with Anthony Albanese. “This is a big deal,” Trump said while signing the executive order in the Oval Office. “The beginning of making America rich again.”
BK @ #54 Tuesday, February 11th, 2025 – 9:29 am
Of course, nobody will ever truly replace you but your successors are doing an excellent job at it!
Trump is not a normal politican. Compared to say the late John zMccain and George.Bush snr
He has no sense of public service.
He does not understand conflicts of interest or separation of powers
His attitude is that of a olden.time king…. not a leader.
He is in essence a grifter a conman
What is in it for me? Is his cry
Trump says ‘let all hell break loose’ if all hostages are not freed by weekend
President Donald Trump on Monday explicitly threatened Hamas after the militant group paused plans to release more of the Israeli hostages it holds this weekend, telling reporters that “all hell is going to break loose” if all of the Israeli hostages held by the group aren’t freed by noon on Saturday.
Trump made the declaration as he addressed reporters during a marathon signing session in the Oval Office on Monday.
I just changed my location to the US via VPN and looked at Google Maps and the Gulf of Mexico is now labelled “Gulf of America”.
It still uses the proper name when you view it as an Australian.
To all those watching in horror as Trump abrogates the rule of law with seemingly nothing to stop him, please remember this the next time you feel like whingeing about the ‘obstructive’ Australian Senate.
Watching ABC24, Trump presser while doing orders.
What struck me is that he is surrounded by sycophants. Seriously, this is the Oval Office and he has “journo’s”and staff literally telling him how wonderful he is on live TV while he is rambling.
Apparently, he now wants all the hostages in Gaza released by noon Saturday? I though the releases were staged over the second phase of the ceasefire?? Does he actually realize what he is saying when he comments that released hostages look like something out of the holocaust?? FFS this man is insane and a completely disgusting and vile individual.
If Albo and Wong can achieve anything not completely negative dealing with this creep then its a major win.
Trump has announced he is still giving “great consideration” to Australia, as the US runs a trade surplus with us.
He called Albanese a “very fine man” following the phone call.
I just spoke to him. Very fine man. He has a surplus. We have a surplus with Australia. One of the few. And the reason is they buy a lot of airplanes. They’re rather far away and they need lots of airplanes.
We actually have a surplus. It’s one of the only countries which we do. And I told him that that’s something that we’ll give great consideration to.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/feb/11/australia-politics-live-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-trade-tariffs-steel-aluminium-trump-question-time-election-campaign-cost-of-living-ntwnfb#maincontent
Lars can add Trump’s character assessment of Albo in their pre-mortem list.
I have heard actually, that all international related briefs provided to Trump and his cabinet has to have two things at the top:
1. What is the trade deficit/surplus with that country.
2. Is there an alliance arrangement.
The balance of the document is read (if at all) in that light
“Finally, another executive order directs the federal government to revert to using plastic straws instead of paper alternatives, which Trump said “don’t work”, “break” and “explode”. The move targets a Biden administration policy to phase out federal purchases of single-use plastics, including straws, from food service operations, events and packaging by 2027, and from all federal operations by 2035.”
The Monty Python crew could not have written a script like current reality.
Oh, here comes das Uberpotatofuhrer …… 🙁
Electoral reform announcement incoming
ABC have Dutton on live now.
Telling Trump how it’s gonna be.
”
Mick Quinlivansays:
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 10:38 am
Trump is not a normal politican. Compared to say the late John zMccain and George.Bush snr
He has no sense of public service.
He does not understand conflicts of interest or separation of powers
His attitude is that of a olden.time king…. not a leader.
He is in essence a grifter a conman
What is in it for me? Is his cry
”
MQ
Guy Ritchie’s Netflix series “The Gentleman” is about British Aristocracy
‘They(i.e. the British Aristocracy) were the original gangsters!’ How Guy Ritchie’s The Gentlemen wages war on the aristocracy
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2024/mar/01/they-were-the-original-gangsters-how-guy-ritchies-the-gentlemen-wages-war-on-the-aristocracy
Dutton doing his best PM impression.
Almost like he’s already been elected.
Mundo
I reckon Dutton will be great at megaphone diplomacy.
Stinkersays:
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 1:01 am
Entropy at 12:57 am
So you take offence at me suggesting someone is “wishcasting”. Yet you are happy to make the claim that i’m “bizarre, and frankly a bit paranoid”.
Which of those two do you really believe is the most offensive statement?
—————
You have an incredibly strange outlook on things. If you think I took “offence” at the use of the term “wishcasting”, I think we have very different definitions of “offense”. Because, no, in no world would I have considered that “offensive”, even if directed towards me.
And you can take offence at my descriptions of your behaviour as bizarre and paranoid if you like – I’m not withdrawing them, and I’m happy to double down on the “bizarre” descriptor as you keep coming back with responses of the type above.
Stinkersays:
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 1:02 am
Entropy at 12.57pm
Good night, i don’t want to hang around to see what this discussion degenerates further into though.
——————
Cheerio, and make sure to check there aren’t any reds under the bed before you switch the light off.
=========================================================
While i don’t take huge offence at you calling me “bizarre, and frankly a bit paranoid”. My experience is that once a posting exchange starts calling people names like that. It quickly deteriorates further to worse things. Hence while i called it a day and because i wished to go dream catching. Your send off snide remark about “reds under the bed”. Suggests i made the right decision, as it appears you were in the mood to take the insults further.
The Libs in SA are trying to tar Albo with the Whyalla wipeout brush.
It’s definitely federal election time!
In a time when bi-partisanship re the US is paramount, Dutton descends to crass politicking blaming Rudd and Wong.
He is not fit to be PM.
A reminder that the Amy Remeikis Australia Institute political blog is good value (certainly better than the mainstream/establishment Guardian).
https://live.australiainstitute.org.au/
Contrary to what seems to be the majority opinion on this forum, I’d like to state I absolutely hate the multiple news roundups that are saturating the comments sections of late. It was okay when one poster was doing it but it is now 3-4+ people posting 10+ news article links every single morning and that’s not including all of the comics.
It’s making it almost impossible to come and read the political conversations about the polling and parties that I actually enjoy on this site. May I suggest a single link that takes those who are interested to a google doc where the rest of the links are?
Personally, I feel if you are politically engaged enough to be on this site you can just go to the politics sections of these news sites and find and read them yourself, like I do. Just my opinion 🙂
Watching the latest Trumpian presser it was yet another example of a backdrop of sycophantic and obsequious lackeys lining up to “kiss the ring” – and not one on Trumps hand.
How very damning that he demands such behaviour.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/10/pre-election-boost-for-albanese-as-137bn-core-of-future-made-in-australia-passes
As long as this isn’t rorted by Govt mates, this is probably the best outcome from this otherwise poor Labor Govt.
Before any one gets knots in their knickers, Trump announce a tariff against all countries today to make a big splash. The exemptions will of course come over the next few days after Trump gets praise from the usually suspect in America.
The other thing is our exports of Aluminium and Steel are fairly small in comparison to how much the rest of the world sells to America and only make up a small proportion of Australia’s overall exports of those products.
My response to this comment is under consideration…
My response to this comment is under consideration…
=================================================
Did you get timed out?
So did Albo pass his so called “test”, by the total hypocrites?
I’m actually becoming mildly concerned about these polls, the lack of ALP recovery and the implications thereof.
It’s now not beyond the realm of possibility that we could have the LNP getting a million more primary votes, 52% of the 2PP and significantly more seats than the ALP, but not forming government.
Although that is perfectly fine from a technical perspective regarding how parliament works, in the mind of the average punter, not used to minority government, it’s going to look a lot like the will of the people has been subverted, or at least the right wing pundits like Bolt and Fordham will have a field day stirring up people and telling them that.
To add to that, you have the likes of Scamps being interviewed and detailing a laundry list of grievances against the LNP, barely disguising her contempt for Dutton, but at the end of it refusing to admit she’s already decided to support Albo in a hung parliament, presumably becuase she thinks admitting this will cost her votes. And then having the gall to lecture people on integrity being most important to her, when she is lying to her own electorate.
Although we are comparatively politically apathetic people with no history of note of political violence, the world is changing and I honestly would not put it out of the question, in the situation I describe above, for theories to take hold involving the Green-Teals, the AEC and even the GG (being an ex labor staffer) conspiring to subvert the will of the people and leading to violence. I even heard a strategist the other day, it might have been Samaras, state that the LNP needs 53% of the 2PP to form government. That is straying dangerously into gerrymander territory, and probably legitimate questions do need to be asked about electoral boundaries if that situation arises of the LNP gettign 52% + of 2pp but losing..
I still hold out most hope once the election is called of the expected ALP recovery, and the 2PP getting back to 50-50 or close to it, so the heat is taken out of the result and labor can govern in minority with no problems. The LNP vote presumably has peaked and I can’t see them getting 53% 2pp which it is claimed they need to form government, so the safest and sanest path forward is hopefully some form of labor recovery. They’re leaving it bloody late though.
Has Albo saved the best till last ?
Is the last 8% of the term going to be better than the 92% that preceded it ?
If Albo can avoid the Trump steel tariffs then he will be PM for life 🙂
Holdenhillbillysays:
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 12:13 pm
If Albo can avoid the Trump steel tariffs then he will be PM for life
======================================================
A well executed reverse Lars pivot.
HH
I doubt that very much.
Rex Douglassays:
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 11:29 am
My response to this comment is under consideration…
_____________________
Don’t really follow US politics. I get most of my information from people on here.
I was sold a pup.
Just catching up with the outcome of Albo’s call with Trump. I have to say that he has done well.
Regardless of my reservations expressed earlier today about opinion poll trends and AUKUS, it sounds like Albo got Trump to listen to and acknowledge Australia’s case. I’m impressed, and a little surprised.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-11/federal-politics-live-blog-feburary-11/104921486
Media should agree with Trump tariffs. Most wanted and backed the Orange Messiah all the way. The West Australian toilet papers front page today was a disgrace to journalism and their owners.
History shows that polling usually moves towards the incumbent during the campaign.
Even when the bats are out – like in 2022 – the needle still moved back towards the Liberals during the campaign and what was averaging roughly a 54+ ALP 2PP prior to the campaign ended up only being around 52-48.
2019 was similar. ALP were leading around 52-48 going into the campaign, that reduced to around in 51-49 in the final polls and obviously reversed to 51-49 the other way in the final result.
So I don’t think it’s so much about saving the best for last, it’s just that incumbency does have an advantage in an election campaign, and also voters who are still undecided when they go to cast their vote are more likely to opt for no change than change.
While Australians have been hit hard over the last 3 years (due to global factors), a rate cut is the final piece that at least allows Labor to form some sort of narrative of “We went into government with inflation rising under the Liberals, now it’s reduced from over 7% to under 3%; we went into government after interest rates started to rise under the Liberals, now they are being cut while we still managed to keep unemployment low”.
It’s obviously not going to erase the financial pain a lot of Australians have felt and are feeling, and they’ll obviously still cop a lot of blame from it because Dutton has been very effective at campaigning on it and interest rates are obviously much higher now than in 2022, but it will at least take some of the sting out of the Liberals’ attack and potentially salvage 1-2% of voters to get back near 50-50.
Peter C @ #46 Tuesday, February 11th, 2025 – 9:33 am
They’re getting around to it.
…Eyes are on Mark Cuban.