Two new federal polls:
• RedBridge Group has its first federal poll since November (not counting its MRP poll with Accent Research), which has the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred compared with a 50-50 result last time. On the primary vote, Labor is down three to 31%, the Coalition up two to 40% and the Greens steady on 11%. The poll also finds Coalition supporters are more firm in their voting intention (61% solid versus 34% soft) than Labor voters (51% solid and 39% soft). Attendant media coverage is making much of regional breakdowns showing a 9% swing against Labor in the outer suburbs, compared with 5% in the inner and middle suburbs, essential no change in provincial cities, and a 3% swing in Labor’s favour in rural areas, although the error margins on these individuals breakdowns are around 6%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1013.
• The regular weekly Roy Morgan poll likewise records the Coalition with a 51.5-48.5 lead on both the respondent-allocated and previous election flow measures of two-party preferred (which were respectively 50-50 and 50.5-49.5 in Labor’s favour last time). The primary votes are Labor 29% (down one), Coalition 40.5% (up two), Greens 11% (down half) and One Nation 4% (down one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1688.
There has still not been an explanation of why the actual voting , has not shown these so called swing from Labor to the lib/nats ? which are supposed to be occurring according to opinion polls
The 3 federal by-elections showed no Liberal party gaining off the Labor primary vote
If the Werribee by election was supposed to have federal election implications, the liberal party didn’t get much advantage in the primary vote as it was still under 30%
https://edition.pagesuite.com/get_image.aspx?pbid=d5f86309-c928-4e0e-b526-b143f04dbd26&h=800#image.jpeg
Is there an election up? The Australian definitely hasn’t noticed.
Anthony Albanese steels for Donald Trump’s tariff test – Ben Packham And Geoff Chambers (The Australian $);
The authors have gone through dirt files to find some choice quotes as Anthony Albanese has vowed to personally seek a carve-out for Australia from Donald Trump’s looming 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to the US, in a critical pre-election test.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/anthony-albanese-steeled-for-donald-trumps-tariff-test/news-story/0b46993f23d873ae929ffa565859bcfa?amp
Anthony Albanese’s leadership at risk by his own standards – Simon Benson (The Australian $);
As opposition leader Anthony Albanese was pointed that Scott Morrison should “pick up the phone” to Xi Jinping to resolve the trade war China had launched against Australia, but is at risk of failing his own leadership test on dealing with Donald Trump.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/anthony-albaneses-leadership-at-risk-by-his-own-standards/news-story/92fae28d5a5940dce896241b37bea400?amp
It’s time Dutton sings for his supper – David Pearl (The Australian $);
Dude needs to learn how to edit. Long waffle on Albanese Governments apparent Miles approach to government, and Dutton’s supposed milquetoast response – Pearl pines for Hawke, Howard, Keating and Costello.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/its-time-dutton-sings-for-his-supper-on-economy/news-story/595fc4f774b8658687c962254d4b0298?amp
Daily cartoon – John Spooner (The Australian $);
https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/85ff5a4a1d2eaab545a2c7f5f0c7dce2?width=1024#image.jpeg
Why car prices could rise as Labor’s emission rules hurt manufacturers – Phillip Coorey (AFR $);
Coorey shows little to no interest in interrogating the claims made by the motor retail lobby regarding emissions standards repeating them verbatim. Chris Bowen points out the penalties forecast by the mtaa are a factor of 10 lower than forecast by the industry at the time the legislation got up. I’d point out that we don’t have car manufacturers to ‘hurt’ in Australia, so this really amounts to anti-dumping legislation.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/why-car-prices-could-rise-as-labor-s-emission-rules-hurt-manufacturers-20250210-p5lav4
D-Day looms for Woodside’s massive North West Shelf gas project – Mark Wembridge, Angela Macdonald-Smith and Tom Rabe (AFR $);
It’s either crucial to energy security, or a climate disaster in the making. Labor will have to decide whether to let the LNG operation run another 50 years. Will Tanya Plibersek block the project despite protestations from her WA colleagues, or allow an additional 4.3bn tonnes of carbon loose?
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/d-day-looms-for-woodside-s-massive-north-west-shelf-gas-project-20250204-p5l9hj
Chasing electoral reform deal, Labor offers to increase donation caps – Tom McIlroy (AFR $);
Labor and the Coalition look set to lock minors and independents out of negotiations, and agree to an overhaul of Australia’s political donations rules as soon as this week, lifting a proposed individual donation cap to $40k and increasing the disclosure threshold to $16.9k – at which point, why bother?
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/chasing-electoral-reform-deal-labor-offers-to-increase-donation-caps-20250210-p5lasl
In the quest to appease Israel, the media undermine our basic rights – Bernard Keane (Crikey $);
BK dives in to the cases of Latouff, Lalor, Ford and Dubois and finds that whether it’s courts, politicians or the media, it seems that the dice are always loaded in favour of those wanting to crush criticism of Israel, while its victims are left to fend for themselves.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/02/10/australia-media-appeases-israel/
Reading the tea leaves of Victoria’s by-election results – William Bowe (Crikey $);
Some are reading the results of the weekend’s Victorian state by-elections as a panic moment for Labor and the Greens, but that doesn’t automatically mean the Liberals are winning big.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/02/10/by-elections-prahran-werribee-victorian-labor-greens/
Behold! The searing political insights that can only be shared under the cloak of anonymity – Charlie Lewis (Crikey $);
it seems that Journos and pollies are taking the piss with quotes like “People are unhappy with Labor but unconvinced by the Libs” being protected under a cloak of anonymity.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/02/10/political-sources-anonymous-victorian-by-elections/
bSheet-Pan Coconut Curry With Squash and Tofu – Hetty Lui McKinnon (NYT Cooking $);
In this warming sheet-pan dinner, winter squash receives the royal treatment, as it roasts in a (shallow!) coconut curry.
Thanks for the new thread, and details on the polls Mr Bowe.
This could be effective if Labor campaign effectively on it by pointing back to the the Liberals previous calamity in government. Focusing on Peter Dutton alone won’t be enough alone. They need to link him back to Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison.
“Labor is happy with the Liberals’ Dutton-centric “back on track” pitch. Party sources said the Dutton ad had tanked in its focus groups because the Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison governments were still too fresh in voter minds. One Labor source who spoke on condition of anonymity said group participants also drew similarities with US President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan.
On Sunday, Labor launched a new 90-second ad refuting the “back on track” narrative, linking Mr Dutton to the Abbott and Morrison governments, with the tagline: ”Is that really something we want to see again?”
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/political-ad-strategies-show-everyone-is-talking-about-peter-dutton-20250209-p5lana
Can’t read the Fin Review photo of Phil Coorey article. Natural inclination is to say it’s wrong, as is the bit about Carbon Capture & Storage by Angela Macdonald -Smith.
The repost..
BBC
Is carbon capture an efficient way to tackle CO2?
6 August 2024
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clmydee2grno
Easy way to meet vehicle emission standards.. remove stupid SUV tax subsidy, force them to meet normal car efficiency standards.. win win
Banquo
Thanks for the paywalled selection – I see you draw the line at the Daily Rupert.
Just on the electoral reform, you say:
Chasing electoral reform deal, Labor offers to increase donation caps – Tom McIlroy (AFR $);
Labor and the Coalition look set to lock minors and independents out of negotiations, and agree to an overhaul of Australia’s political donations rules as soon as this week, lifting a proposed individual donation cap to $40k and increasing the disclosure threshold to $16.9k – at which point, why bother?
Why bother indeed if the only point is the increase in individual donations cap – which actually is the sop to get the LNP to agree. What that snippet doesn’t mention is:
– near realtime donation reporting by the AEC, including daily in run up to election
– pooled donations to groups like Climate 200
– Labor-linked trade unions and campaign groups including conservative outfit Advance will also be subject to the new rules
– public funding for political parties will be increased from about $3.50 per vote to about $5.
– operative date of July 2026, so not for this election
The wording will be interesting to see how Clive Palmer’s use of his companies like Minearology to dump $100m at the last election is curbed, and others with the idea of influencing elections with big bucks.
That’s why we should bother.
Sceptic
The $600b ‘lost from regulations’ article in the AFR is rent seeking on steroids from Santos. This sums it up:
But big hurdles stand in the way in Australia, not least the federal government’s overturning of a decision to allow carbon capture projects to be eligible to generate Australian Carbon Credit Units, says Santos chief executive Kevin Gallagher.
sprocket_ @ #6 Tuesday, February 11th, 2025 – 6:08 am
Happy to include the daily if that’s what the audience wants. Wasn’t sure if it was covered in any other of the daily roundups. Aust and fin were flagged as needing coverage when I offered my services.
Sorry you are quite right, there is still plenty for labor and the coalition to gain from the changed donation laws, especially entrenching incumbency advantage, and allowing more to be donated to labor and the coalition than any other party or independent.
https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/legislation-requiring-real-time-disclosure-of-political-donations-could-pass-this-week/
Banquo- delighted with your coverage as is.
You can safely leave the Murdoch tabloids out 🙂
Good Morning! Here’s your Daily News and Views Roundup.
Pre-election boost for Albanese as $13.7bn core of Future Made in Australia passes. Tax breaks for critical minerals processing and green hydrogen production were waved through the senate on Monday evening.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/10/pre-election-boost-for-albanese-as-137bn-core-of-future-made-in-australia-passes
AG Mark Dreyfus could be heard calling Liberal MP Michael Sukkar “disgusting” as the newly appointed manager of opposition business moved a motion that Dreyfus no longer be heard – drawing shocked expressions from the government’s frontbench – after he accused the Coalition of politicising the issue of antisemitism during Monday’s question time.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dreyfus-blasts-disgusting-opposition-attempt-to-gag-him-on-antisemitism-20250210-p5laz6.html
The majority of Coalition senators have swung in behind One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s bid for a fresh parliamentary inquiry into medical treatments for transgender children, less than a week after Opposition Leader Peter Dutton cautioned his MPs to steer clear of culture wars before the federal election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-senators-swing-behind-pauline-hanson-s-push-for-her-own-trans-inquiry-20250210-p5lb15.html
As Labor and the Coalition prepare to fight over health policy at the federal election, the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners wants the next government to extend bulk-billing incentives to under-35s because they are the group most likely to delay doctor’s appointments because of cost.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-battle-to-keep-gp-visits-free-once-teens-turn-17-20250210-p5las7.html
Overwhelming evidence is proving the Coalition’s nuclear plan to be a scam, writes Steve Bishop.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/duttons-nuclear-policy-is-a-coalition-scam,19427
Anthony Albanese’s government is feuding with Premier Jacinta Allan over billions in infrastructure spending for big ticket projects to sway voters who are switching off Labor, as the cash-strapped state holds out for extra Suburban Rail Loop funding. The stand-off over project funding has prompted Victorian federal MPs alarmed by the 17 per cent swing against Allan in the Werribee byelection to demand she cease “blackmailing” the prime minister for extra money for her flagship project.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-mps-furious-over-allan-s-suburban-rail-loop-blackmail-20250210-p5laxe.html
Hidden among the more headline-grabbing items on Labor’s list of election announcements is new funding to educate healthcare professionals about menopause and perimenopause and to develop the first-ever national clinical guidelines.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/healthcare-changes-will-shift-the-dial-for-women-like-me-20250210-p5lau8.html
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will set out an economic and strategic case to persuade United States President Donald Trump to spare Australia from punishing tariffs on steel and aluminium, as the two leaders schedule a crucial phone call on the looming trade crisis.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/donald-trump-to-announce-25-per-cent-steel-and-aluminium-tariffs-20250210-p5lat6.html
Michelle Grattan asks the question: Trump is now flagging tariffs on steel and aluminium. Can Albanese win an exemption for Australia?
https://theconversation.com/trump-is-now-flagging-tariffs-on-steel-and-aluminium-can-albanese-win-an-exemption-for-australia-249476
Trump’s tariff plan called out in Congress as ‘insult to Australians’
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-tariff-plan-called-out-in-congress-as-insult-to-australians-20250211-p5lb2m.html
While Trump is moving fast and breaking things, Americans wanting to escape should come to Australia. There is a talent pool of brilliant people who should be invited to study here, to work in our hospitals, construction sites and research labs.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/feb/09/while-trump-is-moving-fast-and-breaking-things-americans-wanting-to-escape-should-come-to-australia
Greg Jericho observes Trump’s latest tariff bid shows the old rules of trade no longer apply. Scraps of paper will not save us. A 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports, as flagged by the US president, is more evidence that Australia cannot rely on our ally to do good by us.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2025/feb/10/trumps-latest-tariff-bid-shows-the-old-rules-of-trade-no-longer-apply-scraps-of-paper-will-not-save-us
How drug labs in China fuel Trump’s global trade war. The Wuhan company didn’t bother with the dark web. It spruiked its goods right in the open, showing mounds of white powder.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/how-drug-labs-in-china-ignited-trump-s-global-trade-war-20250205-p5l9rr.html
Independent MP Sophie Scamps has challenged Labor and the Liberals to back a new agency to build the case for long-term reform, as she sets out her approach to deciding which side takes power if the election leads to a hung parliament.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/serious-policy-on-the-table-teal-mp-names-her-terms-for-support-in-a-hung-parliament-20250209-p5laq7.html
Alan Austin is back with a piece outlining that Albo and Dr Jim steadily reduce poverty and homelessness — at last
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/albo-and-dr-jim-steadily-reduce-poverty-and-homelessness–at-last,19425
Law designed to solve Sydney’s antisemitism crisis faces opposition from within.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/law-designed-to-solve-sydney-s-antisemitism-crisis-faces-opposition-from-within-20250210-p5laxc.html
SMH Editorial: NSW’s proposed new hate laws feel somehow incomplete.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-s-proposed-new-hate-laws-feel-somehow-incomplete-20250210-p5lauz.html
When it comes to changes that have transformed our lives and made us richer, what comes to mind? The advent of electricity, perhaps? Refrigeration? Penicillin? Public education? How about lattes?
According to one member of the Australian public, all that’s needed to transform our economy is “high-quality coffee on every floor of an office building”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-a-strong-cup-of-coffee-could-solve-our-productivity-problem-20250204-p5l9kl.html
A decade-old secret review examining a governance scandal at industry superannuation giant Cbus recommended appointing more independent directors to its board to curb the powerful influence of the CFMEU and improve the fund’s culture.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/secret-report-reveals-super-fund-s-cosy-culture-with-cfmeu-20250210-p5lawn.html
If anyone was wondering what has happened to The Australian Independent Media Network, this explanation should fill you in:
https://theaimn.net/weve-moved-but-were-still-here/
Last year, for the first time, temperatures on Earth surpassed a crucial threshold: 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average. The news was alarming, but scientists pointed out that, despite 2024 setting a new record, it was still too early to say definitively that the 1.5°C limit had been breached on a long-term basis. But two major new scientific papers now suggest that it has.
https://theconversation.com/earth-is-already-shooting-through-the-1-5-c-global-warming-limit-two-major-studies-show-249133
Trump is driving political debate to ever new lows. The left must hold on to its values. Even his most ridiculous executive orders have an ugly affect on politics around the world. We can’t just ignore the US president. But nor can we succumb to the momentum of the right.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/feb/10/trump-driving-political-debate-new-lows-uk-must-hold-on-to-its-values
Inside the new plan to seize Russia’s shadow fleet. European countries are pushing for new powers to squeeze Moscow’s shadow fleet after a spate of incidents in the Baltic Sea.
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-shadow-fleet-finnish-bay-snow-eagle-s-december-oil-baltic-sea-europe-waves-europe-kremlin/
EU considers giving countries wiggle room to boost defense spending. The move would allow governments with overstretched budgets more flexibility under the bloc’s debt and deficit rules.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-commission-expanding-definition-defense-spending/
Macron pledges to catch up with Trump with €109B AI investment. “We have to be in the race,” the French president says.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-emmanuel-macron-pledges-to-catch-up-us-donald-trump-with-e109b-ai-investment/
France wants its own military AI algorithms. But Europeans are not sovereign on hardware because of Nvidia’s ‘international monopoly’.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-wants-its-own-military-ai-algorithms/
Romania’s Klaus Iohannis announces he’ll resign as president. Longtime leader heads for the exit amid political turmoil in Bucharest.
https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-president-klaus-iohannis-resigns-spare-impeachment-crisis/
Britain to ‘wait and see’ on Trump’s tariff threat. Announcements on steel and reciprocal tariffs contradict the U.S. president’s suggestion the U.K. could be spared from his trade war.
https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-to-wait-and-see-on-trump-tariff-threat/
As Trump steamrolls Washington, courts flex their power to slow him down.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/09/trump-courts-block-early-agenda-00203230
Trump administration seeks urgent end of ‘impermissible’ court order blocking access to Treasury systems. The order blocked DOGE access to a critical government payment mechanism.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/10/trump-administration-treasury-payment-system-access-00203341
The Senate gives Trump his Cabinet — and their compliance. Unlike his first term, the president is getting little pushback from the chamber’s Republicans.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/10/donald-trump-senate-republicans-confirmations-015302
House Democrats create a Trump-focused ‘rapid response task force’. The party is under pressure to mount a more determined resistance to the president and his allies.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/02/10/congress/democrats-trump-rapid-response-task-force-00203351
Finally, how the Gila Monster saved diabetics. Drucker, along with others in the scientific community, wanted to turn GLP-1 into a drug to help people manage Type 2 diabetes. However, there was a problem: GLP-1 quickly disappears from the human body, positing difficulties in drug development.
Here enters the Gila monster, the largest lizard in North America.
https://globalnews.ca/news/9793403/ozempic-canada-scientist-venomous-lizard-weight-loss/
Cartoon Time!
Alan Moir
Cathy Wilcox
Matt Golding
Dionne Gain
Mark David
Edith Pritchett’s week in Venn diagrams
Stephen Collins
From the Internet
Enjoy!
Trumps mentor….
“When the President does it, that means that it’s not illegal.”
Richard M. Nixon
NYT..1977
Dr. Abrahamsen believes that the former President suffered from a serious ailment that he calls “a character disorder.” Mr. Nixon had “a great neurotic disturbance” and became “a self‐absorbed paranoid,” according to the psychoanalyst. He contends that the former President was incapable of rationally discharging his responsibilities and that his White House decisions were based on his own disturbed “personality needs” rather than facts.”
Banquo911,
If I knew how to post an image from my WhatsApp account to the blog I could thrill you with my Banana Muffins with Lemon Buttercream Icing that I made on Sunday. 😉
Appreciate the extensive round up c@t!
And thanks Banquo!
The illicit tobacco wars have run rampant here in Victoria and to a lesser degree elsewhere.
Now this has reignited Melbourne’s gangland war as Sam “The Punisher” Abdulrahim was killed last week. With Kazem Hamad allegedly in control, the bloodshed has spread to Sydney.
Meanwhile there have been calls to cut the excise
https://www.news.com.au/national/crime/nobrainer-call-to-drop-australian-cigarette-prices-amid-tobacco-war/news-story/d48c78bb32a7d762ec56f6626b779f22
C@tmomma @ #12 Tuesday, February 11th, 2025 – 6:35 am
C@T, that sounds bloody delicious.
The opposition has walked back its vow to slash tens of thousands of federal government jobs, suggesting a Dutton government, if elected, will make the bureaucracy more efficient through “natural attrition”.
The Nationals leader, David Littleproud, said on Monday “hardly any” public service jobs will be on the chopping block if the Coalition were to win at the polls, in a significant backdown on comments in 2024 promising to dump as many as 36,000 public servants.
“The Nationals have made it clear that we will get rid of those in Canberra. There will be 36,000 public servants that will go. We don’t need more public servants,” he told 6PR radio in August.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/10/littleproud-says-hardly-any-public-servant-jobs-to-go-under-coalition-government-in-significant-backdown
The worst part about the tobacco wars, is that the big wigs pay young idiots to fire bomb stores for peanuts. And some of these idiots have in turn injured themselves badly doing so.
These people are without morals.
It is quite disgraceful.
Kos samaras analysis is generally fine, but as I have said in the past, the outer Melbourne suburbs were pissed during Covid.
They did not like the Covid restrictions. Meanwhile they were generally the ones that had jobs that were front facing, and didn’t like being told they couldn’t hang out with extended family.
The backlash towards the vic Labor govt to this day has its roots with respect to Covid.
And the federal Labor govt is unpopular due to cost of living and interest rate pressures.
It is pretty simple.
US Cartoons:
Holdenhillbilly @ #17 Tuesday, February 11th, 2025 – 7:47 am
Not testing well in the focus groups? 😐
Victoria @ #13 Tuesday, February 11th, 2025 – 7:36 am
I like to give it an international flavour in an attempt to show there’s a world outside of Trumpland. 🙂
World News & Politics Patrol:
A consortium of investors led by Elon Musk is offering $97.4 billion to buy the nonprofit that controls OpenAI, upping the stakes in his battle with Sam Altman over the company behind ChatGPT. Musk’s attorney, Marc Toberoff, said he submitted the bid to OpenAI’s board of directors Monday: https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-openai-bid-4af12827
President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium imports, including those exported from Australia, has been branded an “insult” to Australians who are funding the US submarine industry. “The first cheque was delivered on Friday … and two days later what do we see? A 25 per cent tariff on steel and all products coming from Australia into the US,” Courtney said in the US House of Representatives. “What we’re seeing is a completely needless, almost insult, to the people of Australia.”: https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-tariff-plan-called-out-in-congress-as-insult-to-australians-20250211-p5lb2m.html
Russia says U.S. relations are on brink of collapse, refuses to confirm Trump call claim: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-says-us-relations-are-brink-collapse-refuses-confirm-trump-call-rcna191426
Trump’s invasion threats violate international law: Canadian ambassador: https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/trudeau-in-paris-for-ai-summit-as-trump-set-to-announce-tariffs/
EU vows to react to Trump’s ‘unlawful’ tariffs – A truce on a 2018 trade dispute on steel and aluminum between Brussels and Washington is set to lapse at the end of March: https://www.politico.eu/article/france-calls-on-eu-to-react-to-trumps-tariffs-threats/
A supposedly UK-based network of Telegram channels is hoping to spark civil war in Britain – but the operation appears to be run from Russia. HOPE not hate can reveal that a network of Telegram channels is offering cash to UK citizens willing to commit acts of terror and vandalism: https://hopenothate.org.uk/2025/02/10/exclusive-a-russia-linked-telegram-network-is-inciting-terrorism-and-is-behind-hate-crimes-in-the-uk/
Labour releases footage of deportation flights for the first time -new Home Office figures show that under Labour 39 bespoke charter flights have removed nearly 19,000 people to countries including France, Brazil and Albania: https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/immigration-raids-home-office-arrests-pg8znldbk#Echobox=1739219167
Yougov: In her first 100 days as leader of the opposition, Kemi Badenoch has only convinced 14% of Britons that she looks like a prime minister in waiting. Does look like PM in waiting: 14%
Does not look like PM in waiting: 55%
A federal judge in Rhode Island on Monday ordered the Trump administration to comply with his order to unfreeze federal grants, after attorneys general for several Democratic states claimed the directive was not being fulfilled. In a short order, U.S. District Judge John McConnell directed the Trump administration to “immediately” end any federal funding pause until he decides whether to indefinitely block the freeze while litigation is ongoing: https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5136255-trump-federal-funding-freeze-comply/
The Trump administration is making an urgent push to end a court order barring top officials’ access to the federal government’s massive payment system operated by the Treasury Department, saying the “remarkable intrusion” is unconstitutional and should be “dissolved immediately: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/10/trump-administration-treasury-payment-system-access-00203341
Rage is mounting among President Donald Trump’s allies over the losses that Trump’s agenda has suffered in court, which are clearly becoming a serious obstacle to him. It’s gotten so bad that Elon Musk shared a tweet from someone who suggested that it may be time to defy the courts. Musk also boosted Trump allies who are seething over these rulings. All that amounts to a pretty dark threat from Musk: He and MAGA appear to be steeling themselves to defy judicial rulings. We talked to Norman Eisen of Democracy Defenders Action, who is litigating against Trump, about how successful the legal resistance has been thus far, whether Trump and his allies will defy the courts, and what would happen if they did: https://newrepublic.com/article/191331/musks-threats-suddenly-darken-new-trump-legal-losses-enrage-maga
‘He’s Building a Concentration Camp’: Fears Grow as Images Emerge of Offshore Prison at Gitmo: https://www.commondreams.org/news/gitmo-concentration-camp
Trump gets high approval ratings for his first weeks, new CBS poll finds: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/10/trump-approval-rating-president-poll.html
President Donald Trump will sign an executive order directing the Department of Justice to pause enforcing a nearly half-century-old law that prohibits American companies and foreign firms from bribing officials of foreign governments to obtain or retain business: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/10/trump-doj-foreign-corrupt-practices-act-pause.html
Federal judge in NH temporarily blocks executive order that would end birthright citizenship: https://www.nhpr.org/nh-news/2025-02-10/federal-judge-in-nh-temporarily-blocks-executive-order-that-would-end-birthright-citizenship
“Not testing well in the focus groups?”
Weasel words. 30,000 … 40,000 – “hardly any”.
UnAustralian: Australia’s leading Trump supporter, Gina Rinehart, has sent President Trump a thank you card, after the US President introduced tariffs on Australian imports of steel and aluminium.
”Donald is an amazing President and I’m sure the tariffs he puts on us are just a little love tap, ” swooned the West Australian Billionaire. ”He does love us, I know he does, just that sometimes he needs to dole out a little tough love.” ”That’s ok, we’re a big country we can handle it.”
When asked why as an Australian based billionaire she seemingly fawned over Donald Trump, Ms Rinehart said: ”He’s just great, I mean he exudes masculinity with his healthy orange glow and luscious hair.” ”And not only does he have money but also power.” ”I need a cigarette after that, have Peter Dutton fetch me one please.”
George Mega’s latest effort makes for pretty depressing reading.
Once Albo steps down who leads a profoundly demoralised Labor party?
New approach to ego driven Trump needed by fed labor.
Rudd damaged Australias interest with slagging off Trump as he thought he would not win.
Well he has and Rudd is today being photographed with a Democrat all over media.
Meanwhile Albos on the blower trying to spare Aust of tariffs.
Own goal number 200065.
Trump is in retribution mode at the moment labor and Rudd is baiting him.
Dems are useless for Australia for at least the next two years until midterms so Albo needs to change positions.
Get rid of Rudd from his position asap.
Malcolm ex PM also did his self indulgent Trump hissy fit last night on major media.
There is a new game in town globally adjust labor or Australia loses.
The headline “US stocks end higher as investors brush off Trump tariffs on steel and aluminium” is the correct response to Trump.
Just ignore otherwise you too will go mad
And ignore what you read in media (including polling) and be led by data and what the organ grinders say (so not the monkeys)
And in regard the headline quoted, Capital is global so the investors referred to are global, including you and me thru our superannuation funds (at least)
A bit of polling out of Japan, with the LDP on 31.3%, Komeito on 3.5% and the main opposition party CDP on 9.2%.
Interestingly, 32.8% don’t support any political party (higher among younger age groups) and 6.5% didn’t know/gave no answer. Given voting is not compulsory in Japan, that would obviously have an impact on certain political parties (*cough* the CDP *cough*).
Taken from: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250210/k10014718241000.html
I am kind of surprised this hasn’t been a bigger thing already.
It seems clear, now, that raising the tobacco excise is simply the wrong thing to do: the tax take is going down, not because people are smoking less, but because smokers are becoming more ok with buying black market excise-free products that funnel money into organized crime.
So there’s no further public health gains to be made by increasing the excise, and a whole lot of really bad shit being caused by driving people into the arms of organized crime. I’m no smoker, and I’ve always hated smoking (and thought negatively of smokers), but seriously, why are we trying to squeeze blood from that stone anymore?
I would assume that the alcohol excise is following a similar trajectory, if perhaps not quite so pronounced yet. What is the evidence saying? Where is the end point of this policy?
Morning all. First thanks for the post on the new polls overnight William. They confirm a worrying trend that Federal Labor is now at risk of not only minority government but outright defeat.
I also note the following comment from William at the end of the last thread.
“ The biggest of the many problems with this forum is Labor tribalists imputing bad faith to anyone expressing a judgement contrary to what they would like to be true.”
I hope I don’t contribute to the trend but as a Labor supporter I am probably guilty of it. It is undeniable behavior by some here, just as several pro-Liberal posters plainly post lies to either denigrate Labor or puff up Liberal claims.
Looking back over my many years posting on this blog, especially during the Rudd – Gillard – Rudd era, if I have a regret it is saying too little rather than too much about problems within the Labor party.
Overall Labor has many great people and tries to do good for the average person in this country. But it also suffers from as many fools and control freaks as the Liberal Party does and is intolerant of internal criticism which limits its ability to fix internal problems before it is too late.
Albo adopted a slow change strategy from the start and pinned his hopes on fortunes improving when interest rates rise. That has been a narrow and risky strategy that reflects Albo’s inherent caution and conservatism rather than what the country needs. The assumption that there will always be a second term to finish the job is dangerous and presumptuous. It needs to change.
I have said before that Albo has not been the same since the Voice defeat and I remain of that view.
The foolish decision of Labor to back AUKUS now looks quite ridiculous in the face of Trump’s tariff threats. Albo needs to confront Trump on it. If he doesn’t get a win, Albo needs to cancel AUKUS or retreat from parts of it. This is actually a political opportunity.
It was always Morrison’s intent to wedge Labor on AUKUS and even with Scomo gone we still seem to be walking into the trap. Arguments we need USA to guarantee our physical and economic security are exaggerated or outright false.
Trump popularity going through the roof dems via courts are denting their midterm chances already let Trump have his mandate and let him suffer the consequences.
Otherwise he gets sympathy from voters that think that big government/establishment and Dems is denying them what they voted for.
Trump derangement syndrome reigns!
Aussie voters hate China labor and support USA so a lot of votes at stake.
Banquo, Cat and Holden Hillbilly
Thanks for the excellent roundups this morning. The combined coverage is really excellent.
Trump is soaking up a lot of media air time at present and for good reason. Nevertheless, most elections are won or lost on domestic issues, including ours.
Dutton has done nothing to carve out a credible agenda. Yet oppositions rarely win so much as governments lose. Albo’s visions of revitalised Australian manufacturing is good, but IMO not sufficient to win another term.
Albo needs to present a vision of a (better) future for the whole population, especially young home seekers, and do it quickly, or he risks defeat IMO.
Just like the UK our Government should be running ads showing deportations to make it clear that they are doing something.
#weatheronPB
Cream casual clouds.
Crumbs smeared across the still sky.
Inconsequential.
There’s a restlessnes,
wanting to do more than wait,
hiding in bound sight.
So the air will move.
And until it does we’ll wait,
for the change to come.
While the polls are worrying, I am seeing on facebook, anti Dutton and Libs material circulating from people I would not have expected.
Plus there is a whole campaign and its advertising to go. Some of the Labor ads I have seen have been very good.
My take on the Libs here is Victoria is that it more anti Jacinta than anti Albo. Our local state MP gets a fair bit of negative comment, but the Federal one not so.
Everyone, thank you for your news round ups. I confess to not reading anything with Trump in headline
I was keen to read William Bowe’s contribution in Crikey and disappointed that he was wrong in his analysis of Labor voters following (or not) the printed HTV
I did not keep Lupton’s HTV but it preferenced Liberal 2 and Greens 10
https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/02/10/by-elections-prahran-werribee-victorian-labor-greens/#
Kemi Badenoch is only 100 days into her job as Conservative leader but already some of her MPs are talking about putting a time limit on how long she will last.
So jittery has the party become after Reform UK surged in the polls, that Conservative MPs are already discussing at which point Badenoch may be forced to either make a pact with Nigel Farage’s party or step aside as leader. Two Conservative MPs said separately that moment would come after elections to the Scottish Parliament and Senedd in Wales in May 2026. “She’s got until the backend of 2026 to improve. If we do really badly in the Scottish and Welsh elections then she will be at serious risk,” one shadow minister told The i Paper. https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mps-warn-badenoch-make-gains-3528157
@ Pied Pooper (8:28am):
Your wigout at all things Trump, Labor and trade simply ignores salient facts:
1. We are not a net exporter of goods to America; we are in fact a large net importer.
2. Insofar as Australia is to be judged by Trump’s articulated criteria to avails tariffs (in this case regarding steel and aluminium products)
– we don’t ‘cheat’ by subsiding products unfairly;
– we don’t dump these products on America;
– our one large scale steel manufacturer (Bluescope) has actually done what Trumo has demanded of other countries & set up a steel plant in America.
American tariffs will only hurt Americans. If US steel was up to it tariffs would not even be on the agenda, even accounting for Trump’s populist rubbish.
Neither pandering to President Man-baby nor ‘calling him out’ is going to help and replacing KRudd is simply irrelevant.
There is no ‘test for Albo’ to pass – that’s just a LNP/Nescorpse con-job.
Albo just needs to quietly remind The Donald of the salient facts and if he then wants to shoot America in the head, that’s on him.
The greatest risk to Australian exporters to America lies not in any actual tariffs Trump ends up imposing on Australian goods BUT in the fact that Trump’s reign of tariff madness may end up spear tackling the American economy to the extent that American customers for said goods simply exist the market.
My take on the Libs here is Victoria is that it more anti Jacinta than anti Albo. Our local state MP gets a fair bit of negative comment, but the Federal one not so.
Thanks for this laughtong. This is my observation too but at least our state government is not as old as yours in Victoria so it’s being given the benefit of the doubt more.
People DO distinguish between federal and state political issues, local as well. At least that’s my experience. Some don’t, but you’ve always had them.
One other observation I will make is that the State Rail Loop imbroglio reminds me of nothing so much as the NSW Liberal’s introduction of the Metro train lines to NSW. Labor people were against it, until it was built, now they are all for it. I think the same applies to the SRL. People will be against it until it’s built, then they’ll love it. That’s not to say that the Airport line shouldn’t be built too. Our one in NSW is heavily patronised and appreciated.
Thanks to the news roundup collective. I read with interest the following article:
Alan Austin is back with a piece outlining that Albo and Dr Jim steadily reduce poverty and homelessness — at last
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/albo-and-dr-jim-steadily-reduce-poverty-and-homelessness–at-last,19425
Who is this Alan Austin and why hasn’t he received the memo?
UK Cartoons and other miscellany
Patrick Blower
Matt on the fallout from the Labour WhatsApp group “Trigger me Timbers”
Andy Bunday
Martin Rowson
@martinrowson.bsky.social Latest toon for the wonderful @bylinetimes.bsky.social
Ben Jennings
Brighty
Nick Anderson
Chapatte
Tjeerd Royaards
Tom Gauld
Private Eye
The Sydney metro is better than sex.
Trump seems to think he can just ignore court orders he doesn’t like
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/2/10/2302780/-Trump-seems-to-think-he-can-just-ignore-court-orders-he-doesn-t-like?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_3&pm_medium=web
“But rather than admit fault, Trump and his GOP sycophants instead attack the judges who issued the rulings, saying their decisions should be ignored even though the Constitution explicitly lays out the separation of powers that gives judges review over executive branch actions.
“We’re very disappointed with the judges that would make such a ruling,” Trump said Sunday on Air Force One. “No judge should frankly be allowed to make that kind of a decision. It’s a disgrace.”
Vice President JD Vance echoed similar sentiments on Sunday in a post on X.
“If a judge tried to tell a general how to conduct a military operation, that would be illegal. If a judge tried to command the attorney general in how to use her discretion as a prosecutor, that’s also illegal. Judges aren’t allowed to control the executive’s legitimate power,” Vance wrote.
Musk went a step further, calling for the judge who blocked him and his team from accessing Treasury records to be disposed of.
“A corrupt judge protecting corruption. He needs to be impeached NOW!” Must said in a post on his own disinformation platform.”
“Republican lawmakers also added to the chorus of attacking the judiciary and calling for Trump to ignore the orders.
Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, pushed false information to try to preemptively justify any potential attempts by Trump to ignore court orders.
Cotton wrote in a post on X: “Outrageous. Obama Judge Paul Engelmayer didn’t just bar @elonmusk and @doge from Treasury systems, he barred the Secretary of the Treasury himself. Without citing a single law or even allowing Trump admin to appear in court! This outlaw should be reversed immediately and Engelmayer should be forbidden by higher courts from ever hearing another case against the Trump admin.”
Over the last 4 years the USA has had an opposition leader, commanding the headlines whatever (and outside the government because he was not a house leader or elected representative)
What the Democrats should learn is to appoint their 2028 candidate now (including from outside elected representatives if so) so that candidate articulates opposition to Trump, the reasons and the alternative
And is THE central figure in that response, others assisting behind that central voice
Socrates @ #32 Tuesday, February 11th, 2025 – 8:44 am
Indeed. It is sometimes said that a PM grows into the job. Not Albo. He shrunk the job instead.
I also used to think that an interest rate cut would be enough to gift him a second term. But these polls suggest there is a growing mood for change. Any change.
I posited that possibility some time ago. If it does eventuate, American democracy is doomed. The judiciary will be relegated to a subservient arm of government, perhaps replaced with military tribunals. Americans can’t say they weren’t warned!
”
billiesays:
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 8:59 am
Everyone, thank you for your news round ups. I confess to not reading anything with Trump in headline
”
billie
But you should read about what we post about Trump.
The reason being Dutton is mini-me, has cultish devotion to Trump and will do exactly what Trump is doing in America.
1.Don’t be under the impression that what is happening in USA won’t happen in Australia.
2. Don’t be under this illusion that Dutton is only 5/ 10 % worse than Albanese.
3. Don’t be under the impression that we can remove in 3 years time if Dutton government is horrible. You don’t know what will happen in 3 years time.
”
pied pipersays:
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 8:44 am
Trump popularity going through the roof dems via courts are denting their midterm chances already let Trump have his mandate and let him suffer the consequences.
Otherwise he gets sympathy from voters that think that big government/establishment and Dems is denying them what they voted for.
Trump derangement syndrome reigns!
Aussie voters hate China labor and support USA so a lot of votes at stake.
”
Useful idiot of Trump.
Remember guys
PP, FUBAR, Paul A, scromo, Badthinker, Centre are face of Liberal party on PB. They are showing what Liberal party stands for and how it and Dutton will behave when LNP comes to power.