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Prahran
| Projected 3CP | Projected 2CP | Win Probability |
Werribee
| Projected 3CP | Projected 2CP | Win Probability |
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Click here for full display of Prahran by-election results
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Live commentary
Saturday
I believe the counts are now complete, with various loose ends being tied up in both seats. These cut six votes from the Liberal lead in Prahran, which ends at 16,352 to 15,363, a margin of 989.
Thursday
7pm. New postals now added for Prahran, breaking 773-732 in favour of Liberal, increasing their lead from 954 to 995.
4pm. Finally an update from Werribee (though not Prahran), and my system is calling it for Labor. This is due to the addition of 2310 postal votes, of which the formal ones have broken 1191-1039 to Labor, in keeping with the tendency for Labor to do better on late-arriving postal votes. Rechecked totals have been added on the primary vote count, but the VEC does not do rechecking on the TCP count. These will make a few dozen votes’ difference in favour of the Liberals, but not nearly enough to disturb a published Labor lead of 593 votes, out from 441 on election night, with at most 1500 still to come.
Tuesday night
It seems we won’t be seeing further updates to the count until later in the week.
Monday night
It is apparently the case that a check count of the primary vote at least commenced today, but no updates have appeared for the published results. The uncovering of errors might tilt the balance one way or another in Werribee, but otherwise the matter will be decided by perhaps 3000 postal votes that will trickle in over the coming week.
Saturday night
2.00am. Having updated the system with estimates of the number of outstanding votes (which make a generous guess of postals in the absence of any hard data I can find), my system is calling Prahran for the Liberals and giving Labor an 84.5% chance in Werribee. In Werribee, the Liberals will need to improve on the 53-47 break in the favour on postals counted so far to close a gap of 441 votes, which is certainly possible if there are indeed enough votes outstanding; in Prahran, postals can only extend a current Liberal lead of 954 votes.
1.00am. The remaining pre-poll centre in Werribee finally came through with its TCP result, producing what one assumes is the final result for the night: Labor 20,132, Liberal 19,691.
12.13am. Correction: one of the two Werribee pre-poll centres hasn’t reported its TCP result.
11.34pm. A good night for the Liberals got better with the addition of the second batch of Werribee pre-polls, which sliced Labor’s lead on the raw vote from 3.0% to 0.6% — and my projection is the same. So the question now is whether the Liberals can wear a 446 vote deficit on postals, making it very much too close to call.
11.25pm. I’m unclear if we’re actually going to see the outstanding pre-poll TCP count added for Werribee this evening. My system’s earlier call of the seat for Labor, which I was very uncomfortable about, turns out to be based on an underestimate in the number of outstanding votes, and has been retracted now that I’ve added new (and very rough) estimates.
10.50pm. A second batch of pre-polls have been added for Werribee on the primary vote and my system is calling it for Labor again, but I’m not at all confident about that. What we have is a huge mismatch between the pre-poll primary vote count (21854 formal votes) and the TCP count (50 formal votes), which means more than half the projection is based on an estimate of preference flows that may prove awry.
10.19pm. A second batch of pre-poll TCPs slightly improved the Greens’ position in Prahran, though they’re still behind. That may be it for the evening — the Greens are nearly 1000 vote behind, which isn’t the kind of lead that normally gets chased down in late counting, particularly by the Greens in a situation where there won’t be absent votes. Nothing substantial in the latest Werribee update, apart from the last remaining booth TCP result. Now that it’s clear pre-polls are indeed being reported in batches, I more strongly suspect that we haven’t seen the last of the count for the evening in Werribee.
10.04pm. A batch of pre-polls — fewer than I expected, so there may be more to come — have been added on the primary vote for Werribee. They are not great for Labor — around 3% worse on two-party terms than the election day votes. That’s relative to the total result of pre-polls last time though, and it may be that we’re getting one batch from one part of the electorate and a later batch will be different, which my system isn’t built to factor it. The Liberals have pulled further ahead in Prahran, again because of a TCP result — this time for pre-polls — where they did better on preferences than on election day votes. It looks like the ABC has turned off booth-matching, but whether off projected or raw results, it looks much the same, namely bleak for the Greens.
10.02pm. It turns out to have been the postal TCP count: the Greens did well enough relatively speaking on the primary vote and then did very badly on the preference flow, resulting in a 17.9% LIB swing. They may at least hope that later arriving postals will behave differently.
9.51pm. I remain unsure as to what cause the Liberal landslip in Prahran — the latest update has moderated it slightly, but the Liberals are still ahead.
9.40pm. Things have suddenly slipped dramatically in the Liberals’ favour in Prahran: both my system and the ABC’s went from having the Greens ahead to Liberal ahead. I’ve arbitrarily widened my error margins in both seats. To repeat yet again, Labor’s narrow lead in Werribee could very easily be wiped out by pre-polls.
9.26pm. If you’re enjoying the coverage, please consider a donation through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the page and the bottom of the post.
9.20pm. Labor has strengthened a little in Werribee on my projection with the latest update, but not so much as to change my basic outlook that everything depends on a looming dump of pre-polls, which renders the 90% or so Labor win probability excessive. I will look at tweaking my model so it’s more cautious until substantial numbers of pre-polls are added. That’s not an issue in Prahran, where the pre-polls have been reported: lots of new TCP numbers in the latest update do not change by projection of an 8% to 9% swing from Greens to Liberal, which is about 4% below what the Liberals need.
9.05pm. Not sure exactly why, but the latest update from Werribee not good for Labor: their win probability now wound back to 76.7%. Still no pre-polls. Whereas there is a big whack of pre-polls in Prahran, accounting for nearly half the vote counted, and they have hardly behaved differently from election day votes, suggesting the Greens are indeed looking good.
8.58pm. There were 15,895 pre-polls added late on the night of the Mulgrave by-election count, which is presumably a rough pointer of what to expect here — more so though in Werribee’s case than Prahran’s.
8.45pm. I’ve forced through real world preference flows to my Werribee projection, and a little to my surprise, it’s calling the seat for Labor — which would be because it goes off lower error margins when it stops using preference flows. But I would want to see some serious pre-poll numbers first.
8.39pm. No new results in the latest update for Prahran, but we’ve got a second TCP from Werribee plus most of the primary vote booth results. That’s still not enough TCP for my system to switch out of using my preference estimates. Based on how Paul Hopper’s preferences flowed in 2022, I’ve tweaked his flow slightly in favour of the Liberals, and should probably tweak them a bit more. If my system was going off the preference flows indicated by the TCP count, Labor would be projected with a 1.4% lead. As it stands, my system says 2.6%. I suspect the former will be nearer the mark.
8.20pm. A huge infusion of primary votes in Prahran, six out of nine booths in all, and my system is all but calling it for the Greens. But: there’s still practically no TCP count, and if I’m wrong about preferences, I may be overestimating them. Count progress similar in Werribee: lot of primary votes now, very few TCPs, speculative preference estimates looming large in a projection that has tightened up.
8.14pm. A lot in Prahran depends on preferences for Tony Lupton, who I’m projecting at a bit over 10%. His how-to-vote card has the Liberals ahead of the Greens, but I’m punting on a lot of people not following it and splitting his vote 50-50. We’ll have a better idea how right I am about that when we see some substantial TCP numbers at the count, at which point my system will drop pre-determined preference estimates and calculate their actual flow.
8.05pm. First booth in from Prahran, plus a tiny parcel of pre-poll votes. I think the latter are distorting my projections: they show it as close, but the booth is quite large and suggests a Liberal swing of only about 3%. Four booths in now from Werribee, and my system is now leaning to Labor, suggesting an insufficient Liberal swing of 7.1%. However, I’m projecting neither major party to clear 30% on the primary vote, so I can’t be ruled out that a minor candidate can sneak through the middle. Independent Paul Hopper best placed, but my feeling is that the number of Greens and Victorian Socialists votes going straight to Labor will make it hard for him.
7.50pm. Relief for Labor as the second booth in from Werribee, Riverbend, swings a lot more gently than the first. Labor’s primary vote has plunged, but a remarkable share of it has gone to Victorian Socialists. I’m projecting a very slight Labor lead, but that leans heavily on preference estimates. Still nothing from Werribee.
7.35pm. The latest update brings the TCP result from Little River, which the Liberals won 177-117 after losing 156-122 last time.
7.18pm. Nothing new in the regular 15 minute update. When I referred earlier to “the absence of small rural booths”, I guess I should have said “except Little River”.
7.03pm. The first booth in from Werribee is Little River, with what I record to be a 13.5% two-party swing, which would be enough for the Liberals to win. Notes of caution though: only 294 votes, and a booth uncharacteristic of the electorate.
6.16pm. No surprise that the latest results update brings no figures, but the time stamps on my results pages have successfully updated, which is reassuring.
6pm. Polls have closed. History suggests the Victorian Electoral Commission will update the results feed at precise 15 minute intervals. Given the huge fields of candidates in both seats, and the absence of small rural booths, there could be quite a wait — in similar circumstances at the Mulgrave by-election, the first update with actual results was at 7:30pm.
Preview
Today is the day of Victoria’s eagerly awaited Werribee and Prahran by-elections, which between them offer an opportunity to gauge whether Labor is doing quite as badly in the outer suburban mortgage belt as recent polls have suggested, and how the Greens are holding up in their inner Melbourne heartland after a disappointing result at the Queensland election in October. As is hopefully apparent immediately above, this site will be running live results and projections using its innovative three-candidate prediction model, though as will be explained below, these will very likely be two-candidate contests.
As is so often the case in Victoria these days, both have attracted bloated fields of candidates, but Werribee appears a straightforward two-horse race that will be defined by the precise scale of the inevitable swing from Labor to Liberal. The former is defending a margin of 10.5%, which is less than the swing indicated by the remarkable recent poll result from Resolve Strategic. Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reported last week that “internal Labor polling suggests it could be as close as 48-52 in favour of the government”, which would come as a substantial relief to it if borne out. For their part, the Liberals are managing expectations, with Chip Le Grand of The Age relating a view that the party missed an opportunity to engage the seat’s substantial Indian population by preselecting 63-year-old real estate agent Steve Murphy. Liberal sources cited in the Financial Review hopefully offered if if Murphy can manage a 5% swing, “the seat could be within reach next year” — a notion rightly debunked by Kevin Bonham.
I’m not aware of any hard intelligence of what’s likely to transpire in Prahran, where the Greens are defending a formidable 12.3% margin against the Liberals in a contest forfeited by Labor. A fair bit has been made of the fact that the seat’s last Labor member, Tony Lupton, who held it from 2002 to 2010, is running as a candidate and directing preferences to the Liberals ahead of the “toxic” Greens. While Lupton’s name recognition is unlikely to amount to much fourteen years after he ceased to represent a rapidly changing electorate, he can hardly fail to gain at least some traction in his appeal to homeless Labor voters. The extent to which they follow his how-to-vote card is another matter.
@Blackburnpseph, I’m not sure I understand those numbers.
If you’re assuming a Greens vote reducing to 28% (2018 level), Lupton’s 13% being the baseline Labor vote, and then 11% “Others”, and the Liberal Party only polled 36%, that only comes to 88% leaving a whole other 12% left over.
Whose vote is that? It can’t be the Greens if you’re assuming they would only have got 28%; it can’t be the Liberals because they ran this time and would have got it; so that could only be ALP or Others.
But you already have the ‘Others’ at 11% which is double what ‘Others’ got in 2022.
To me, that extra 12% would have been Labor, which puts them back in the mid-20s.
I could have been clearer
Figures below are rounded
The Libs got 36
The others (non Lupton) 15
Lupton (assume this was base Labor vote) 13
If the Greens base was 28 (based on 2018) that adds up to 92 leaving 8% in play.
So if there had been a Labor candidate the Greens vote would have been somewhere between 28 – 36 and Labor somewhere between 13 and 21. Yes the others vote is higher than 2022 any of those candidates not run if Labor were running unlikely – would they have received fewer votes if Labor were running – possibly but not necessarily.
My point is that the Greens vote probably would have been higher than the 28 and the Labor less than 21 then probably in the teens.
Second guessing the Labor hard heads here is that a Liberal win would be better than a Greens win as it would deprive the Greens of some oxygen when Labor are desperately trying to hold onto Macnamara. And the optics of no Labor candidate better than a low primary which would then become the centre of attention.
Blackburnpseph at 11.36 am
“Lupton (assume this was base Labor vote) 13”.
Not so according to Dr Bonham. See:
“Sunday: Where The Lupton Vote Really Came From!
There has been some damage-control spinning from the Greens of a result that is simply very bad. Among this has been a tweet by leader Ellen Sandell claiming that “Obviously it’s not the result we would have liked but with the unofficial Labor candidate sending their preferences to the Liberals, those Labor preferences have handed the seat to the Liberals this time.” Firstly, Lupton was not a typical unofficial “independent Labor” type candidate but one who’d got involved in some culture war issues and criticised the party. Secondly, candidates don’t send preferences anywhere (it’s the lower house) and I’d be surprised if the follow rate for the Lupton card was that high anyway. Thirdly the evidence is that where Lupton got his votes from tended not to be the ALP support base. In booth terms, while his vote was pretty flat everywhere, he did worst in the good Labor booths from 2022 and better in the good Liberal booths from 2022 – even though the former had more votes up for grabs care of Labor not running! Neither result is statistically significant but they do very strongly contradict the idea that the Lupton vote was a large chunk of the former Labor vote – it looks more like an independent conservative sort of thing: [graph at his site].”
Thanks for Kevin Bonham info on Prahran vote in 2022 only c. 83%. Maybe more normal 2018 c. 85%. The current tally might get to 70% with postals. That still leaves probably 5-8% extra non-vote compared with normal by election. Generally these will be usual Labor voters who took a sickie.
@Blackburnpseph: That makes more sense, except I think that 15% non Lupton others would have been considerably lower with Labor in the race. Higher than 2022 – I think maybe the 11% you originally mentioned would be accurate due to the high number of INDs – but it’s reasonable to assume some of that 15% non Lupton ‘Other’ vote came from Labor voters, who were turned off Lupton by his Advance/Liberal alliance, because a lot of Labor voters online were furious about that.
I would probably assume that 4-5% out of that 15% ‘Other’ vote would have been a Labor vote too.
So that brings their baseline closer to 17-18% before looking at that 8% left over which would have split between ALP & Greens.
Assuming a 50/50 split, that would have been around:
36 LIB
32 GRN
21 ALP
11 Others
With no way to tell for sure, I think that actually sounds like a pretty reasonable guess. With a -10 swing in Werribee which they hold, I don’t think a -5 swing in Prahran which they were never seen as being in contention to win anyway would have even been noticed.
I can’t see the Prahran result helping Labor in Macnamara. Remember, in order for the Greens to snaffle it, they don’t need their own vote to go up, they just need Labor’s to go down. And not by very much.
So if the Liberals get a boost in Prahran from an increased profile, some of that is likely to come at Labor’s expense, which could be fatal.
Actually, if the federal opinion polls for Victoria are anywhere near correct, it’ll take a minor miracle for Labor to hold Macnamara no matter what.
Although, they have managed to pull off the occasional miracle in the past. Northcote looked gawn at the last state election, but Labor somehow hung on.
Macnamara in 2022
Liberals came 1st
ALP got 365 more votes than Greens on preferences
thus ALP won on preferences
I think that Greens can come second in Macnamara in 2025 thus win the seat. ALP has bled support
Labor came first in 2022 in Macnamara
The Libs actually came third on first preferences but were pushed into the run off by a better preference flow than the Greens (donkey from an Independent and One nation, lib dems, UAP with only left party AHP getting only 20% of the non major vote)
I do agree that Labor is in trouble in Macnamara though but ultimately it will still come down to which of Labor and the Greens survive to the run off. Greens vote looks like it will also take a beating in that seat.
Agree with both billie and Ante.
Nothing in the Prahran result, as hard as it is to read without a Labor candidate, indicated that the Labor vote will hold up in Macnamara.
The fact that more of it clearly went to the Liberal Party than the Greens actually shows that an ALP to LIB swing is on the cards, and that only translates to a likely Greens gain, since a 12% LIB 2CP swing is just not realistic with Labor on the ballot.
@Revisionist: One thing I mentioned on the previous page is that on Saturday, the Greens’ primary went slightly backwards in the booths that overlaps Melbourne (which indicates they would have gone further backwards if Labor ran), but they actually got a +6.4% swing in St Kilda which indicates their vote legitimately held up there.
Speaking of the implications of the results of these by-elections on Federal seats…
What would be the implications of the massive 10% swing against Labor in Werribee have on Hawke, considering it’s an outer suburban Melbourne seat which has been trending towards the Liberals. I’m beginning to lean towards it being a Liberal gain due to Labor’s unpopularity in VIC and the shift towards Liberals in outer-suburban areas as shown in Werribee.
Large anti-government swings are fairly normal for by-elections, although the one in Werribee is a bit bigger than most. I can’t see Hawke changing hands, but wouldn’t be surprised by a small swing the Liberals’ way.
My read of the game in Vic atm:
If the 10% swing is on Federally in Vic, and I believe we’re heading in this direction, then these Vic seats are possibly in the frame as Lib pickups. Note, not dead certs, but well in the frame…
1. Monash (Indie Lib – straight back to the Libs)
2. Aston (held by Labor since the 2023 by-election. Straight back to the Libs)
3. Dunkley (retained by Labor at the 2024 by-election. Typical seat Dutton needs)
4. Chisholm (weak Lib candidate {imo that is}, but if the swing is there, she’ll re-enter Parliament)
5. McEwan (typical seat Dutton has to get ie: outer northern suburban/semi rural)
6. Kooyong (the Teal is good, but the boundary changes should work against her)
7. Goldstein (weak Indie/Teal candidate {imo that is}. Straight back to Tim Wilson)
8. Corangamite (outer suburban Geelong/semi rural. Refer point 3 & 5)
Possible Green pick ups…
1. Wills (the Socialist vote was high in Werribee on Sat, it’s higher in the inner north. They’ll feed votes to the Greens ahead of Labor. Toughie this one, but if the ALP vote drops across the state, this looks like a Green pick up).
2. Macnamara (as outlined by Trent, Billie & others. This could go Lib though if the ALP choose to run a split ticket. I could not possibly envisage a situation where the local branch recommends a pref to the Libs higher than the Greens, but a split ticket is on the cards).
3. Maribyrnong. (If Labor plummets, and the Greens jump up into the Top 2, or just outside the Top 2, they can rely on socialists again. Not important where the Lib vote ends up at, all the Greens need to do is get into the final 2). This is a big “if”, this seat.
I’ve left out Cooper. Reason: The Greens vote is healthy there, but Kearney is fairly well regarded, and even if she loses primaries, she can rely on the Lib preferences to get her re-elected. Don’t see this seat as a potentional Grn pick up.
Vic Senate:
Looking like 3 LNP, 1 ALP, 1 GRN, and a toss up for the sixth spot between the ALP and a fringe party.
It’s noted that the ALP just pulled a 28% primary in a “heartland dead red” seat.
What sort of primaries are they polling at in swing and labor marginal seats in Vic?
Poll data tab for the Vic Fed vote intention has provided grim reading since that June YouGov poll which showed a 24 (ALP)-41 (LNP) primary split. The Green vote seems to be just holding up in Vic, and on the poll data tab they range between 12-18 % from various polling outlets.
What appears to be happenning is a concerted campaign from other parties focused on putting the Greens last. Happenned in Prahran over the weekend, and there were irregular pref distributions in Fannie Bay & Nightcliff in the NT last year. Voters don’t seem to be following the usual “last election” preference distribution flow, which is what we currently use to calculate the 2PP.
Quite interesting what is going on.
Clem Attlee,
I think you are only looking at the socialism of the Victorian Socialists from one angle, who owns what. The bigger picture is that the VS is simply the ‘nice’ wing of the violent, communist revolutionaries who are responsible for almost all the political violence in Australia. Whether it’s ‘Pro Palestinian’ rallies, rallies for trans rights or ‘Invasion’ Day protests they are there.
They use violence just like the nazis. They oppose democracy just like the nazis. They believe that your individual rights are subservient to the states. They do not believe anyone should raise their kids without interference from the state. They oppose religion which is totally bizarre because they cheer on Hamas. These are not peaceful socialists.
The ALP could destroy the Greens in one election if they and the LNP swapped preferences throughout Australia. In such a scenario what would the Greens be left with? Not much.
It’s clearly time for the right to take control of the ALP in Victoria.
Albo cannot go to an election with anti semitism in the air preferencing the Hamas loving Greens.
Nadia88,
There’s no evidence for a ten percent swing that I can see. Bludgertrack has it about five percent 2PP and three and a half on primaries.
Twelve seats in the Senate, plus Melbourne.
@nadia88, I can’t see that the ALP would even allow a split ticket, as it would likely hurt their own primary vote elsewhere, not just in Macnamara but can you imagine the backlash in Wills if word got out?
The only benefit of a ticket recommending the Liberals above the Greens would be to salvage Josh Burns’ vote among the Jewish community, which is only 12% of the electorate and given it’s already the most Liberal-friendly party, probably isn’t worth a whole lot.
What I think is more likely is that they just put the Greens as low as they possibly can while keeping them above the Liberals, and then at the Caulfield-area booths only, probably verbally tell people they don’t have to follow it, or something along those lines.
I don’t think they’d want a repeat of the controversy of Michael Danby’s HTVC.
They’d be astute enough to know as well that anybody in the Jewish community who would choose not to vote for Josh Burns over Labor’s HTVC rather than just not following it, is probably among the voters more likely to swing to the Liberals regardless of what the HTVCs say.
If they did by chance approve a split ticket (which is extremely unlikely), it would very selectively be handed out probably only at Caulfield booths, and even then probably not to everyone, so the impact would be pretty minimal.
Ante,
BT has the “right” up 8% in Vic, and the left down 4%.
The others, which aren’t mentioned on BT, are down about 1.8.
Forgetting about the others, and we have a rough 12% swing on primaries from the broader left to the broader right.
I’ll round it down to a 2PP of 10%, which is pretty much in line with the weekend results when averaged out.
Yep Trent i can’t see them ending up with another Danby moment.
A soft whisper at the booths is probably more on the cards.
Cheers for words earlier too – much appreciated.
I thought the Libs would tick a bit higher in Prahran. Looks like it will settle at around the 37% primary mark for both parties once the postals come in.
As much as it’s a really disappointing result for the Greens, who in the absence of Labor should have expected their primary vote to hold up in addition to getting an extra 4-5% (at least) from Labor voters, it also has to be a pretty disappointing result for the Liberals – despite the thumping swing on preference flows – to have only had roughly a 5-6% primary vote swing in what were probably the most favourable conditions they’ll ever have in Prahran.
I think while it shows there has been a decline in the Greens’ inner city support, it equally shows that Prahran and similar seats (eg. Albert Park & Macnamara) remain out of reach for the Liberals in normal election circumstances.
If their primary vote hit the 40s, it would have indicated more of a recovery of inner city support, but I think 36-37% was the absolute minimum most people predicted the Liberal primary vote would be on Saturday.
Trent,
Presumably the Liberals will preference the ALP everywhere. In which case the ALP’s decision to preference the Greens except Macnamara won’t fly. Inevitably they would be asked why this seat and nowhere else.
The Liberals would campaign against the ALP/Greens, not the ALP.
PS: It’s not just Jews who are appalled by the Greens pro Hamas agenda. Compare how much Bandt comments on Israel/Netanyahu versus how much he comments on Hamas and their jihadi, totalitarian government. Has anyone asked Bandt about gays in Gaza? The silence is deafening.
Yeah if you read my comment, I was saying Labor wouldn’t preference the Greens everywhere except Macnamara, exactly because it will raise the question of “Why?” and hurt Labor in other seats.
They will just direct preferences to the Greens everywhere as they always do, and as they should continue to do.
There is no way they are preferencing the Liberals everywhere as it’s mostly just the conservative commentators and Liberals themselves (who would be the beneficiaries, especially in Ryan & Macnamara) who are calling for that.
Agreed Trent.
Would appear that Victorian’s are not quite ready to “embrace” the Vic Libs.
Looks to me more that people wanted to give the ALP a big kick, and they’ve done this by giving their primary to some unknown/minor candidate first and then preferencing the Libs higher than Labor.
Let’s be honest, the Vic Libs have been a bit of a clown show this past decade, but I think they now have the leader that the base wants. Despite picking up Prahran, I think Battin will be happier with the result in Werribee especially by forcing a dead red seat, which the ALP usually win on primaries, down to a very thin margin, and indeed topping the primaries on ALP turf. He’ll be happy.
Victorian’s are pretty astute – they’ll have a close look at Battin during 2025/2026 and monitor whether the Libs unravel again, like they have in the past.
Jeremy C Browne wrote, “They use violence just like the nazis. They oppose democracy just like the nazis. They believe that your individual rights are subservient to the states. They do not believe anyone should raise their kids without interference from the state. They oppose religion which is totally bizarre because they cheer on Hamas. These are not peaceful socialists.”
Wow, just wow!
Josh Burns is a totally decent bloke for many reasons, so if federal Labor wants to keep him in parliament, they better put a lot of resources into Macnamara.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/02/08/prahran-and-werribee-by-elections-live/comment-page-9/#comment-4452040
6. Actually, the Kooyong changes are, on balance, likely helpful for Ryan because the transferred areas of Higgins voted a bit to the left of Kooyong in 2022 and there are almost certainly Higgins voters who voted Liberal in 2022 who would have voted for a Teal, if a Teal had run in Higgins.
Nadia re your predictions above:
1. Monash (Indie Lib – straight back to the Libs) – agree though I would not be surprised to see Labor end up third behind Deb Leonard the independent.
2. Aston (held by Labor since the 2023 by-election. Straight back to the Libs) – generally agree but don’t think it will be be by much.
3. Dunkley (retained by Labor at the 2024 by-election. Typical seat Dutton needs) – possiblyyyy… especially as Labor have managed to win in the past from quite a low primary. I see this as a seat where One Nation could do well.
4. Chisholm (weak Lib candidate {imo that is}, but if the swing is there, she’ll re-enter Parliament) – I never quite see why Katie Allen is seen as a weak candidate – yes she did lose Higgins but everything was up against her . Compared to Gladys Liu, she is a good candidate.
5. McEwan (typical seat Dutton has to get ie: outer northern suburban/semi rural) – a good chance for the Libs
6. Kooyong (the Teal is good, but the boundary changes should work against her) – Monique Ryan is more polarising than the other Teals. Boundary changes will not help. I can see the Libs winning this.
7. Goldstein (weak Indie/Teal candidate {imo that is}. Straight back to Tim Wilson) – again I can’t see how Zoe Daniel is a weak candidate – I think she has a much better chance of holding on than Monique Ryan.
8. Corangamite (outer suburban Geelong/semi rural. Refer point 3 & 5) – Yes, quite possibly if the serious swing is on.
I am of the view that Bruce might be an easier pickup than some of the above. Has picked up Liberal voting territory in the redistribution, overlaps Brad Battins seat so he can see it gets attention, and the Lib candidate comes from an Afghan background which will help around Dandenong.
Some on the Tallyroom seem to think that Hawke will also come into play – to me the margin just seems too great.
Labor are in real trouble in Wills.
Macnamara – the Libs will end up in the final two. If the Greens are in the two then Labor wins. If the Greens are in the two then it depends on how the Lib vote is – if the Lib primary is above 40% they are in with a chance as I can see of lot of leakage of votes from Labor. If the Labor primary was <20% then there probably aren't enough votes left to go to the Libs – they have already gone. Both Wills and Macnamara are going to be bloody.
Maribyrnong Greens no chance, too much non Greens suburbia. And agree with you on Cooper.
Nadia, your analysis above is spot on, in terms of federal implications! At the very least, I think the Libs will pick up Aston, Chisholm and McEwen. McNamara would be a real worry for Labor.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/02/08/prahran-and-werribee-by-elections-live/comment-page-9/#comment-4452153
The Werribee by-election swing is ~9.8%. The Hawke margin is 7.6%. That means the general election swing in Hawke could be ~2.1% smaller in Hawke and still be a Lib victory.
By-Election swings are usually always double that of a General Election, so if Labor is really on the nose in Victoria, a 5% swing (statewide) would be on the cards.
With that in mind, I don’t see Hawke being lost by Labor. But you never know…
Pulling up a bit of history here.
Many here will remember the 1997 Mitcham by-election. In some ways it was a similar situation to now (in reverse), an incumbent government that had had a comfortable win the previous election with a 2PP in the 54s. Mitcham was won by Labor on a 16% swing; probably amplified by the circumstances in which the by-election came about (in something which feels like it was from a bygone era, the sitting Liberal MP resigned in protest over a government decision he disagreed with).
Everyone here knows what happened at the subsequent general election – a very narrow Labor win (as a minority government). What’s probably not so well remembered is what happened in Mitcham – there was a 10% swing back to the Liberals compared with the by-election result (although still 6% to Labor compared with the 1996 general election), although Labor held onto the seat, very narrowly.
That’s actually not unusual with by-elections (although Mitcham was a particularly stark example) – at least at federal levels, most who gain seats in by-elections lose them at the following general election. Rob Oakeshott is the only federal candidate in the last 30 years to successfully defend in a general election a seat first won from another party at a by-election (and you have to go back to 1983 for the last time it happened in a Labor-Coalition contest). Nor, even against governments who are ultimately destined to lose, are by-election swings usually representative of the size of the swing in the next general election.
Hawke also has a significantly higher regional proportion than Werribee and the part of Werribee that swung the most is Little River.
And a feature of the Werribee result which I suspect we’re going to see quite a bit of in the outer suburbs (in both state and federal elections): a low combined major party vote, but the “others” vote spraying all over the place and no single candidate able to get a large enough primary to stand a realistic chance of getting into the 2CP.
It’s pretty hard to build a profile in a suburban seat as a potential independent unless you are already well-known, and have a fair bit of money behind you, and the demise of suburban media doesn’t make it any easier to build profile – even local councillors struggle to get name recognition these days (I’d guess that a large majority of Melbourne metropolitan voters would not be able to name their council’s current mayor). The Greens mostly aren’t competitive in the outer suburbs, the likes of the Socialists, Legalise Cannabis and One Nation are capable of getting 5-10% apiece but probably not much more, and with minor parties on both the left and right preferences probably won’t flow tightly between them (unlike the teal seats where the non-majors vote is overwhelmingly on the left).
Little River had a very specific local issue, a (recently shelved) proposal to build a freight terminal there which had very strong local opposition. I don’t think you could consider it as representative.
Hard to use the by election results as a pointer to the federal election other than to say there will be a material swing against Labor. Where those primaries go and how the preferences flow will be the keys.
Really hard to estimate an overall 2PP swing in Victoria at federal level and how consistent that will be across electorates.
So many experts, so little knowledge
Simply, with the election yet to be called, so a full Campaign ahead of us, polling has the 2PP neck and neck (noting such things as RBA Board Meetings and announcements the government may make ahead of dissolving the Parliament are the fact and in prospect)
Yet one “expert” on here, puts that there will be a 10% swing against the government, consigning it to oblivion (with some joy I would offer)
Noting the National polling INCLUDES Victoria – so to get 50/50 the Labor vote outside Victoria must be strong and, when you take Queensland into account, very strong
And in regards Victoria, the next election is how far into the future?
And all this with the bias we see across media, including the ABC
So we will see what the future brings
Noting the Tories include the likes of the numbers individual in Victoria , Sukkar, (and they are in abundance) who hopefully is replaced by a Teal or Labor
The Tories have a problem with candidates coming from god botherer’s and still a trickle from the IPA
And just to add, there is a fridge calendar in letter boxes around Ringwood purporting to be from your representative for Ringwood
I am told this guy is indeed a Liberal MP, a person of faith at the top of his CV
But there is no reference to the Liberal Party, anywhere, and to boot he has a green jumper on
Your representative for Ringwood
Except he is not
The Ringwood MP sits on the cross bench
Well said Peter C
I am not convinced there will be a rate cut this month despite the ASX market tracker having it at 95% probability (with monthly cuts to follow).
Probably will but don’t trust the RBA board
I do expect that Labor will use the government advantage well and I think the Libs / Dutton and their policies will be exposed in an election campaign.
Labor will have to tread carefully / act strategically in how it engages with the Trump regime. Risk is they take a weak approach and get paid back with undermining anyway. Need to signal a willingness to push back and stand up for Australia’s interests and try to position Dutton as a sop as he tries to sell giving up on NBN for Musk’s starlink.
I agree @Revisionist.
It’s a strange dynamic but Australians generally seem to hate Trump, but have warmed to Dutton’s Trump-inspired “strong man” persona. The worst thing Albanese could do is look weak on standing up to Trump.
Most Australians would fear that Trump will walk over Australia if given the chance, and he has emerged as a threat to our economy and security.
So this is actually Albanese’s chance to flip the script a bit and gain an advantage if he can score a political win by negotiating a tariff exemption, and then paint Dutton as someone who would rather cozy up to Trump & Musk than stand up to them.
The only reason the Reserve may hold back is to delay the decision until after a full set of employment data which is a key variable in their decisions.
The thing is he mighten get the exemption in part because MAGA / republicans / Musk would rather the tories.
The worst thing would be to be seen kowtowing and likely getting shafted anyway. Better to repeatedly communicate that “we will be acting strongly in the Australian national interest in how we work with the Trump regime etc…” and then whatever the outcome create jeopardy for the libs looking like they are on Trump’s side over Australia’s
Peter C
I live in the state seat of Ringwood. A Liberal upper house MP does claim to be the voice for Ringwood. This is not dissimilar to Labor MPs doing it in the past. Will Fowles – the menber for Ringwood – is a political eunuch and is going nowhere fast – he seems to have started attending parliament toward the end of last year after not turning up for a long time. If he is really aggrieved he should just resign and trigger a by election.
Well, look at the fridge magnet calendar and tell me where you see ANY reference to the Liberal Party.
One of my sons who lives such that he received the calendar said “Dad, have a look at this so who is he?”
Equally I had never heard of this individual, so went to the internet and his web site where his faith and being a person of faith is front and centre, and found out he was from the Liberal Party.
No problems people having faith.
As I have no problems with the sexuality of people, abortion (etc. etc. etc) because that is their decision BUT don’t ram it down my throat (either for or against).
It is YOUR decision.
In my opinion, you do not bring your faith as the central plank to your employment.
You are there to represent across the spectrum which is society.
And the Census instructs on religion including denominations within our society, and the continuing decline in people of faith.
So the wider point, if of the Upper House, so nominated by the Party to a ticket, the presence of such candidates tells us where influence is within the Liberal Party of today (and hidden)
There was an old story that religion and politics do not mix
There is a reason
And a fridge magnet going out in the middle of February?
My son threw it into the bin
VEC tally room
Zzzzzzzz yawn zzzzzzzzz
It’s a disgrace that on Wednesday night there’s still been no update since Saturday.
Peggy …..there only waiting on postals ….so if Australia post hasn’t delivered anything it’s a bit hard to count votes that aren’t there ……
My understanding is that the cut-off for receipt of postals is 6PM Melb time this Friday.
They then commence the final tally, so I gather we should have a final result late Friday evening.
Not too sure why they haven’t done a daily tally as postals come in.
Link to AG’s commentary:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/werribee-by-election-2025/commentary
So already 1500 postal votes in Werribee sitting there untallied. It’s just silly.
Victoria is labor government loser- ville it has lost the plot.
Economy a basket case,crime out of control, police force incompetent and debt increasing and already massive with no assets to sell.
Pied Pipsqueak wrote, “Victoria is labor government loser- ville it has lost the plot.
Economy a basket case,crime out of control, police force incompetent and debt increasing and already massive with no assets to sell.”
Yeah we know. That fool Kennet sold all the assests off. You do write a load of crap on here.