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Prahran
| Projected 3CP | Projected 2CP | Win Probability |
Werribee
| Projected 3CP | Projected 2CP | Win Probability |
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Click here for full display of Prahran by-election results
Click here for full display of Werribee by-election results
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Live commentary
Saturday
I believe the counts are now complete, with various loose ends being tied up in both seats. These cut six votes from the Liberal lead in Prahran, which ends at 16,352 to 15,363, a margin of 989.
Thursday
7pm. New postals now added for Prahran, breaking 773-732 in favour of Liberal, increasing their lead from 954 to 995.
4pm. Finally an update from Werribee (though not Prahran), and my system is calling it for Labor. This is due to the addition of 2310 postal votes, of which the formal ones have broken 1191-1039 to Labor, in keeping with the tendency for Labor to do better on late-arriving postal votes. Rechecked totals have been added on the primary vote count, but the VEC does not do rechecking on the TCP count. These will make a few dozen votes’ difference in favour of the Liberals, but not nearly enough to disturb a published Labor lead of 593 votes, out from 441 on election night, with at most 1500 still to come.
Tuesday night
It seems we won’t be seeing further updates to the count until later in the week.
Monday night
It is apparently the case that a check count of the primary vote at least commenced today, but no updates have appeared for the published results. The uncovering of errors might tilt the balance one way or another in Werribee, but otherwise the matter will be decided by perhaps 3000 postal votes that will trickle in over the coming week.
Saturday night
2.00am. Having updated the system with estimates of the number of outstanding votes (which make a generous guess of postals in the absence of any hard data I can find), my system is calling Prahran for the Liberals and giving Labor an 84.5% chance in Werribee. In Werribee, the Liberals will need to improve on the 53-47 break in the favour on postals counted so far to close a gap of 441 votes, which is certainly possible if there are indeed enough votes outstanding; in Prahran, postals can only extend a current Liberal lead of 954 votes.
1.00am. The remaining pre-poll centre in Werribee finally came through with its TCP result, producing what one assumes is the final result for the night: Labor 20,132, Liberal 19,691.
12.13am. Correction: one of the two Werribee pre-poll centres hasn’t reported its TCP result.
11.34pm. A good night for the Liberals got better with the addition of the second batch of Werribee pre-polls, which sliced Labor’s lead on the raw vote from 3.0% to 0.6% — and my projection is the same. So the question now is whether the Liberals can wear a 446 vote deficit on postals, making it very much too close to call.
11.25pm. I’m unclear if we’re actually going to see the outstanding pre-poll TCP count added for Werribee this evening. My system’s earlier call of the seat for Labor, which I was very uncomfortable about, turns out to be based on an underestimate in the number of outstanding votes, and has been retracted now that I’ve added new (and very rough) estimates.
10.50pm. A second batch of pre-polls have been added for Werribee on the primary vote and my system is calling it for Labor again, but I’m not at all confident about that. What we have is a huge mismatch between the pre-poll primary vote count (21854 formal votes) and the TCP count (50 formal votes), which means more than half the projection is based on an estimate of preference flows that may prove awry.
10.19pm. A second batch of pre-poll TCPs slightly improved the Greens’ position in Prahran, though they’re still behind. That may be it for the evening — the Greens are nearly 1000 vote behind, which isn’t the kind of lead that normally gets chased down in late counting, particularly by the Greens in a situation where there won’t be absent votes. Nothing substantial in the latest Werribee update, apart from the last remaining booth TCP result. Now that it’s clear pre-polls are indeed being reported in batches, I more strongly suspect that we haven’t seen the last of the count for the evening in Werribee.
10.04pm. A batch of pre-polls — fewer than I expected, so there may be more to come — have been added on the primary vote for Werribee. They are not great for Labor — around 3% worse on two-party terms than the election day votes. That’s relative to the total result of pre-polls last time though, and it may be that we’re getting one batch from one part of the electorate and a later batch will be different, which my system isn’t built to factor it. The Liberals have pulled further ahead in Prahran, again because of a TCP result — this time for pre-polls — where they did better on preferences than on election day votes. It looks like the ABC has turned off booth-matching, but whether off projected or raw results, it looks much the same, namely bleak for the Greens.
10.02pm. It turns out to have been the postal TCP count: the Greens did well enough relatively speaking on the primary vote and then did very badly on the preference flow, resulting in a 17.9% LIB swing. They may at least hope that later arriving postals will behave differently.
9.51pm. I remain unsure as to what cause the Liberal landslip in Prahran — the latest update has moderated it slightly, but the Liberals are still ahead.
9.40pm. Things have suddenly slipped dramatically in the Liberals’ favour in Prahran: both my system and the ABC’s went from having the Greens ahead to Liberal ahead. I’ve arbitrarily widened my error margins in both seats. To repeat yet again, Labor’s narrow lead in Werribee could very easily be wiped out by pre-polls.
9.26pm. If you’re enjoying the coverage, please consider a donation through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the page and the bottom of the post.
9.20pm. Labor has strengthened a little in Werribee on my projection with the latest update, but not so much as to change my basic outlook that everything depends on a looming dump of pre-polls, which renders the 90% or so Labor win probability excessive. I will look at tweaking my model so it’s more cautious until substantial numbers of pre-polls are added. That’s not an issue in Prahran, where the pre-polls have been reported: lots of new TCP numbers in the latest update do not change by projection of an 8% to 9% swing from Greens to Liberal, which is about 4% below what the Liberals need.
9.05pm. Not sure exactly why, but the latest update from Werribee not good for Labor: their win probability now wound back to 76.7%. Still no pre-polls. Whereas there is a big whack of pre-polls in Prahran, accounting for nearly half the vote counted, and they have hardly behaved differently from election day votes, suggesting the Greens are indeed looking good.
8.58pm. There were 15,895 pre-polls added late on the night of the Mulgrave by-election count, which is presumably a rough pointer of what to expect here — more so though in Werribee’s case than Prahran’s.
8.45pm. I’ve forced through real world preference flows to my Werribee projection, and a little to my surprise, it’s calling the seat for Labor — which would be because it goes off lower error margins when it stops using preference flows. But I would want to see some serious pre-poll numbers first.
8.39pm. No new results in the latest update for Prahran, but we’ve got a second TCP from Werribee plus most of the primary vote booth results. That’s still not enough TCP for my system to switch out of using my preference estimates. Based on how Paul Hopper’s preferences flowed in 2022, I’ve tweaked his flow slightly in favour of the Liberals, and should probably tweak them a bit more. If my system was going off the preference flows indicated by the TCP count, Labor would be projected with a 1.4% lead. As it stands, my system says 2.6%. I suspect the former will be nearer the mark.
8.20pm. A huge infusion of primary votes in Prahran, six out of nine booths in all, and my system is all but calling it for the Greens. But: there’s still practically no TCP count, and if I’m wrong about preferences, I may be overestimating them. Count progress similar in Werribee: lot of primary votes now, very few TCPs, speculative preference estimates looming large in a projection that has tightened up.
8.14pm. A lot in Prahran depends on preferences for Tony Lupton, who I’m projecting at a bit over 10%. His how-to-vote card has the Liberals ahead of the Greens, but I’m punting on a lot of people not following it and splitting his vote 50-50. We’ll have a better idea how right I am about that when we see some substantial TCP numbers at the count, at which point my system will drop pre-determined preference estimates and calculate their actual flow.
8.05pm. First booth in from Prahran, plus a tiny parcel of pre-poll votes. I think the latter are distorting my projections: they show it as close, but the booth is quite large and suggests a Liberal swing of only about 3%. Four booths in now from Werribee, and my system is now leaning to Labor, suggesting an insufficient Liberal swing of 7.1%. However, I’m projecting neither major party to clear 30% on the primary vote, so I can’t be ruled out that a minor candidate can sneak through the middle. Independent Paul Hopper best placed, but my feeling is that the number of Greens and Victorian Socialists votes going straight to Labor will make it hard for him.
7.50pm. Relief for Labor as the second booth in from Werribee, Riverbend, swings a lot more gently than the first. Labor’s primary vote has plunged, but a remarkable share of it has gone to Victorian Socialists. I’m projecting a very slight Labor lead, but that leans heavily on preference estimates. Still nothing from Werribee.
7.35pm. The latest update brings the TCP result from Little River, which the Liberals won 177-117 after losing 156-122 last time.
7.18pm. Nothing new in the regular 15 minute update. When I referred earlier to “the absence of small rural booths”, I guess I should have said “except Little River”.
7.03pm. The first booth in from Werribee is Little River, with what I record to be a 13.5% two-party swing, which would be enough for the Liberals to win. Notes of caution though: only 294 votes, and a booth uncharacteristic of the electorate.
6.16pm. No surprise that the latest results update brings no figures, but the time stamps on my results pages have successfully updated, which is reassuring.
6pm. Polls have closed. History suggests the Victorian Electoral Commission will update the results feed at precise 15 minute intervals. Given the huge fields of candidates in both seats, and the absence of small rural booths, there could be quite a wait — in similar circumstances at the Mulgrave by-election, the first update with actual results was at 7:30pm.
Preview
Today is the day of Victoria’s eagerly awaited Werribee and Prahran by-elections, which between them offer an opportunity to gauge whether Labor is doing quite as badly in the outer suburban mortgage belt as recent polls have suggested, and how the Greens are holding up in their inner Melbourne heartland after a disappointing result at the Queensland election in October. As is hopefully apparent immediately above, this site will be running live results and projections using its innovative three-candidate prediction model, though as will be explained below, these will very likely be two-candidate contests.
As is so often the case in Victoria these days, both have attracted bloated fields of candidates, but Werribee appears a straightforward two-horse race that will be defined by the precise scale of the inevitable swing from Labor to Liberal. The former is defending a margin of 10.5%, which is less than the swing indicated by the remarkable recent poll result from Resolve Strategic. Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reported last week that “internal Labor polling suggests it could be as close as 48-52 in favour of the government”, which would come as a substantial relief to it if borne out. For their part, the Liberals are managing expectations, with Chip Le Grand of The Age relating a view that the party missed an opportunity to engage the seat’s substantial Indian population by preselecting 63-year-old real estate agent Steve Murphy. Liberal sources cited in the Financial Review hopefully offered if if Murphy can manage a 5% swing, “the seat could be within reach next year” — a notion rightly debunked by Kevin Bonham.
I’m not aware of any hard intelligence of what’s likely to transpire in Prahran, where the Greens are defending a formidable 12.3% margin against the Liberals in a contest forfeited by Labor. A fair bit has been made of the fact that the seat’s last Labor member, Tony Lupton, who held it from 2002 to 2010, is running as a candidate and directing preferences to the Liberals ahead of the “toxic” Greens. While Lupton’s name recognition is unlikely to amount to much fourteen years after he ceased to represent a rapidly changing electorate, he can hardly fail to gain at least some traction in his appeal to homeless Labor voters. The extent to which they follow his how-to-vote card is another matter.
Liberals will go backwards in Prahran but will get a decent swing in Werribee. I base this on the notion Battin will do very poorly in the inner suburbs but better in the outer places.
It would have been opposite with a moderate like Pessutto in charge in Prahran
9% swing in Werribee but Labor to hold. Descent swing in Prahran too, but Greens by 2% – Libs 40%, Greens 38%, Lupton 7%-8%.
15-16% swing in Werribee, Liberal gain
Prahran – close Liberal win, on Lupton preferences.
Tips so far for PRAHRAN:
TRENT GRN 53
NADIA88 LIB 53
REX DOUGLAS GRN 55%
SCROMOII LIB
CENTAUR___09 GRN
MIDDLEAGEDBALDINGWHITEMAN GRN
BIRD OF PARADOX GRN
DANIEL T GRN
BT SAYS GRN
DAMO no pick
MICHAEL GRN
Tips so far for WERRIBEE:
TRENT LIB 51
NADIA88 LIB
REX DOUGLAS ALP 52
SCROMOII LIB
CENTAUR___09 ALP
MIDDLEAGEDBALDINGWHITEMAN ALP
BIRD OF PARADOX no pick
DANIEL T ALP
BT SAYS LIB
DAMO LIB
MICHAEL no pick
Tony lupton could be the most hated person tonight for state labor vic failures.
Very interesting he does have name recognition in that electorate.2 time winner Prahran.He could get 15-20%.
Piper could be right, but less than half will follow HTV. Still it will definitely steal Green votes and then a fair amount of leakage. Still think Green though.
Tips
Labor to hold Werribee
Greens to hold Prahran
Neither deserve to, but the swings required are too big to overcome.
Close holds in both.
Nadia can I update my selections.
Werribee 53-47 Lib
Prahran – 52-48 Lib changed my mind I think there will be carnage in 10 hours.
Turnout is going to be interesting.
Yay!! Who doesn’t love carnage? Pass the popcorn.
Good old Chip on both shoulders la Grand would love nothing better than writing about Vic Labors total routing in the Werribee by election with full on leader change rumors etc.etc for the next couple of years.
Even if it’s a small drop of support it will be the same thing he will be spouting.
You can take Chip out of the Australian but you can’t take the Australian out of the brainwashed scribe sadly.
Werribee 53-47 Lib Win over ALP
Prahran 51-49 Lib Win over Grn
Werribee would see ALP vote collapse but most preferences going to it but not enough to catch Lib candidate
Prahran will be closer with Lib/Grn almost same 1st preference vote but with Luptons preferences and others putting Lib candidate over the line
Werribee result should be clear cut tonight but Prahran have to wait longer into the week
I think if the Lib candidates do not get within 2-3% of winning either seat they will be disappointed
“I think if the Lib candidates do not get within 2-3% of winning either seat they will be disappointed”
Gonna be a whole lot of disappointed punters around tonight then.
I am going to go for
Werribee ~50/50 likely Lib, big swing come right down to the wire will be less than 500 votes in it at the end.
Prahan 52/48 Green. Greens are hard to get rid of when they are on the plate, everyone prefers the tasty meat and pasta but greens get served to make everyone feel good even when they know a few greens sometimes spoils the whole meal.
The Greens only got that large margin in Prahran at the last election. Prior to that their candidate achieved the remarkable feat of winning from third on primaries two elections in a row. This suggests (to me, at least) that a personal following for Hibbins might have kicked in and the Greens’ vote will suffer without him. They should hang on, but it’ll be close.
That former Labor Whatsisname will be lucky to get his deposit back.
Grimesays:
Saturday, February 8, 2025 at 12:43 pm
“I think if the Lib candidates do not get within 2-3% of winning either seat they will be disappointed”
Gonna be a whole lot of disappointed punters around tonight then.
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So what’s your tip ?
Care to put your money where your mouth is.
Taylormade @ #17 Saturday, February 8th, 2025 – 1:31 pm
Status quo with a little Down Down in both.
@William, just a question about the live results calculating the swings for Prahran tonight.
In the St Kilda area especially there are far less booths: in 2022 there was Betty Day, Town Hall, St Michael’s and I think even PCYC. On a rough guess I’d say they averaged around a 74-26 Greens 2CP.
However, this time there is only one – St Michael’s – which has the smallest vote share last time but a whopping 2CP of 82-18.
Will the swing there be calculated on the average of 2022’s polling booths since 4 are basically rolled into 1, or just on that 82-18 result?
If for example the Greens only get 68-32 there, it’d look fatal having a -14 swing but it would actually probably be more like a -6 swing.
I’m afraid I threw out all my paper work on that, but yes, the rearrangement of booths at the electorate’s southern end was a bit of a headache for me, and basically involved dividing up the 2022 booths in various ways between the new ones. Here’s the historic data I’m using for TCP, the first numbers being the Greens vote and the Liberals second:
Fawkner Park 1237 600
Hawksburn 1148 792
Orrong 557 338
Prahran 1466 681
Prahran East 991 363
South Yarra 579 329
St Kilda East 947 320
Chapel 428 124
Windsor 810 236
Perfect! That’s a 74.7% Greens 2CP at the booth I was referencing so right about what I thought it should be!
Thanks William!
Thanks Trent, that’s very reassuring.
Some observations from today, voting at St Michael’s and walking past Chapel St booth:
– Neither very busy which could be a sign of low turnout
– However, vast majority of people I did see taking HTVCs only had Greens ones, noting this is the Greens’ strongest area
– Surprisingly little Lupton presence, actually Nathan Chisholm seemed to have more volunteers (and heavy use of the colour teal)
– Advance Australia volunteers out in force but struggling to get a message across, they honestly just looked like Greens volunteers lol
– Liberals volunteers weren’t saying to vote Liberal, but just repeating “Make sure you put the Greens last” to everyone walking past, including people who only hasd a Greens HTV in their hands (which was most people)
Not willing to make any predictions on this as it was only two polling places and not many people. Other than I don’t think Tony Lupton will get a very big vote.
It was a sea of green and blue and I expect they will combine for close to 80%.
I won’t change my original prediction just because I didn’t see enough that really gave me any valuable insights.
The greens primary vote in Prahran will be highest and they will win with a 2% margin after preferences based on me visiting prepoll and today. Their base has stuck with them.
Lots of people will try to read today’s results as a forecast of the general election. Kevin Bonham offered this sober advice in a post on BlueSky:
“ The more relevant stat if Labor loses Werribee is the one I mention here. In the last 45 years, 10 state and federal govts have lost a by-election to the opposition with a double-digit swing. Eight of those then lost the next general election. “
https://bsky.app/profile/kevinbonham.bsky.social/post/3lhmltaju3f2i
As it happens, I was in another part of the outer western suburbs this morning and noticed that some of the infrastructure issues are not so much in the newer suburbs themselves, but where they interface with the slightly older suburbs (in the case where I was, traffic issues where a road went down from two lanes to one at the point where it left the 2000s/2010s suburbs to enter the 1980s/1990s ones). I’d imagine there’s quite a bit of that sort of thing in Werribee.
@Lib25, I may have only been in the south of the seat today where the Libs do the worst anyway so it’s hard to tell, but I noticed the same.
It wasn’t even really Greens vs Liberals so much as Greens vs “Put Greens last” so it seems Greens should win the primary vote.
I actually went with a Labor voter who didn’t know about any of the candidates, never votes Greens, and he just took a Greens HTV because he simply didn’t know who anyone else was so it was the safe option. I didn’t even talk to him about it until afterwards, he said “First time I’ve ever not known who to vote for until I got there, I just voted Greens because I don’t know who anyone is”.
I think that dynamic will help the Greens primary vote because I imagine it will be common.
Thanks for the anecdotes from the coal face.
I agree with Trent’s assessment of the St Kilda end of Prahran, based on what I’ve seen both today and going past booths over the prepoll period:
– A sea of volunteers handing out Greens HTVs, and a majority of people taking them
– the Advance-aligned clique of Liberals, Lupton, and Libertarians scaring away the majority of people under the age of 40 or less white than a latte
The latter point can’t be overstated, the behaviour I’ve seen and even experienced as a voter from that mob has been atrocious – one of the independents, Buzz Billman, put out a press release yesterday on it, and I’m aware of a number of other VEC complaints, mostly about the Advance volunteers although I wouldn’t rule out the others except the Lib candidate herself who seems to have the good sense to try to at least win votes rather than shouting at people for voting for someone else. There was a report in the Hun earlier this week which saw some Liberal sooking about VEC guidelines being enforced, framed as overstepping boundaries in the name of free speech. Would love to see the legal mind behind that one.
I don’t think Sam Hibbins’ influence is going to swing people against the Greens too much, his vote was always more party than personal and Di Camillo’s ground game has been fantastic. Nobody else bothered doorknocking in St Kilda East at least, and there are plenty of posters up around the place. There might be a weaker chance if people blindly follow the HTVs of the Advance troika or if any of the other parties were offering anything on a positive note, but Lupton only seems to have the dusty nostalgia of “It’s Time” along with messaging about the Greens being extremists. Rachel Westaway seems relatively inoffensive by Lib standards but when interviewed by Raf Epstein she failed to say a single positive thing about Jacinta Allen, which doesn’t exactly bode for a productive 18-odd months of securing outcomes for the electorate considering Labor’s in government until then.
My instinct is still to expect a minor Lib win here, but that’s just the bit of me that doesn’t like to get my hopes up 🙂
Could you put me down for a GRN win in Prahran, around 55%
& a very slim LIB win in Werribee, around 50.5%
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/02/prahran-and-werribee-by-elections-live.html
my Prahran and Werribee thread. Intro post up, live comments from 6-6:30
The Age 08/01
Iconic Chapel Street cuts through the Prahran electorate, which is one of Victoria’s smallest, coming in just under 11 square kilometres. It takes in the suburbs of Prahran, South Yarra and Windsor.
Previously considered glamorous, the shopping strip has recently been subject to multiple firebombings, a machete attack in mid-January, and a stabbing.
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Jesus, there is no way known I would be walking down that street late at night.
The crime statistics that I just googled up showed no indication of a worsening crime problem in Prahran. I personally would merrily romp down Chapel Street any time of the day or night.
https://redsuburbs.com.au/suburbs/prahran/
My parents lived in Prahran a long time ago, so I’d got some interest in the result tonight.
I’m not a huge expert on Victorian state politics, I’ll guess my prediction, such as it is, will be for the Greens to retain Prahran narrowly and for Labor to retain Werribee too despite a big swing to the Liberals.
The Labor candidate in Werribee seems quite impressive to me, the sort of young bloke you need in parliament – well spoken and so on.
Federal implications? Oh I think Victoria is potentially a major problem for Albanese, but more so the seats of Aston, Chisholm, McEwen, Corangamite and Dunkley.
Losing in Werribee will not be a bad thing for Victorian Labor. The Allen government has been a drift and either needs to shape up or they will be shipped out in 22 months time.
The crime thing has become a joke – the shear number of crimes committed by kids on bail is some immense that even rusted on Labor supporters are joking up how quickly they are bailed out. The rules could be changed basically over night and within days the problem would go away (the kids would start to be detained). If the government did it now, the issue would be lessened by the next election. Leaving it until election year before any change would just look like an election tactic.
Allen struggles in front of media and comes across as annoyed all the time – A little bit of positivity goes a long way. Nobody wants to lead by a sour puss.
A change of leader is not off the cards either. Even 3 months ago, I thought jumping over to Ben Carroll was a scenario that only Liberal try-hards were proposing, but now it looks perfectly sensible. A loss today might mean numbers are done next week.
I wouldn’t want to walk down Chapel Street at any time but not because of the crime. Just because it is s**t.
@B.S. Fairman
I agree on the point that Allan comes across as annoyed whenever I see her in the media, usually with a hard-hat on. It gives me vibes of John Brumby, the Victorian Labor leader that lost 2 elections and won zero (those being 1996 and 2010).
So yeah, if Labor loses Werribee tonight then that’s a big “shape up or get out” message from the voters.
William Bowesays:
. I personally would merrily romp down Chapel Street any time of the day or night.
______________
And I would pay to see that.
Who’s claiming it is a high crime area? The only problem you might have is with a few drunks spilling out of nightclubs but it is not as bad as it was in the 80s.
B. S. Fairmansays:
Saturday, February 8, 2025 at 5:20 pm
I wouldn’t want to walk down Chapel Street at any time but not because of the crime. Just because it is s**t.
____________________________
I remember when Borders opened at the Jam Factory. Just before online book buying took over. Was quite something.
If you wanted a book on Kierkegaard they’d have one.
Haven’t been down Chapel St for many years. The bottom end was great then with a coupe of SH record shops and great cafes. Middle bit round Windsor was excellent with grungy bars, cafes SH shops for clothes, Sybers Books, The Astor and everything else. Top end round Toorak Rd was a fun place on the way home from work for a drink and relax. Then there was Chapel St Bazar and Prahan market where you might see Jim Cairns. Last time I was there, in 2016 was all a bit different, the Astor was still there but the vibe of the whole trip had definatley diminished.
“She failed to say a single positive thing about Jacinta Allan”
1. She is the Liberal candidate so why would she.
2. She is not alone – hundreds of thousands if not millions of Victorians cannot say a single positive thing about Jacinta Allan.
Jacinta Allan is just an empty vessel that makes sound.
Jacinta Allan is our very own facsimile of Jacinda Ardern: a wokist witch totally divorced from the needs and priorities of her subjects.
Borders also opened in Lygon at around the same time…. A bit like opening a Drive-In in 1982 like I know someone did.
Big test for the Liberals today.
Talking a big game. Murdoch wind in their sails. Liberals must win Prahran and Werribee today to be taken seriously.
Blackburnpseph says:
Saturday, February 8, 2025 at 5:43 pm
_________________________________
Not to jump on the bash the ALP bandwagon but Jacinta Allan gives the impression of someone promoted beyond their ability. Don’t get me wrong when Allen was our minister for employment and later transport, she was a very capable minister, always across the brief and able to make the tough decisions. Unfortunately, none of these capabilities are coming out as premier. Even if she hadn’t followed Dan Andrews I think she would still be lacking.
2025 polls here we go folks is this the start of Annus Horribilis for labor this year.
Greens lost their mojo last year will they get it back tonight?
Libs on a roll NT And QLD wins will they get onto a roll in 2025.
Labor treading water hanging on trying to stop the rot will that happen?
Werribee predictions (we may get a new thread in a couple of minutes):
TRENT LIB 51
NADIA88 LIB 53
REX DOUGLAS ALP 52
SCROMOII LIB
CENTAUR09 ALP
MABWM ALP
BIRD OF PARADOX no pick
DANIEL T ALP
BT SAYS LIB
DAMO LIB 53
MICHAEL LIB 53
TAYLOR MADE ALP
DR FUMBLES LIB (just)
PAUL A LIB 50.5
GRIME ALP
LIB25 no pick
DEM SAUSAGE ALP
SPROCKET ALP
I’m a bit surprised at the amount of people buying into the crime attack on state Labor – it isn’t borne out in the stats, it was bunkum when it was thrown at Andrews, and as worse than Andrews as Allan is, it’s still basically bunkum. The idea that Chapel Street (in 2025!) of all places is a crime hotspot is very funny. Some of you need to get out more.
The misogynist abuse of Allan in a couple of the posts in this thread is disgusting.
I’m hesitant to make any predictions about these by-elections: I don’t have enough on-the-ground knowledge to know how much Hibbins damaged the Greens, but Lupton is a rat who deserves to get expelled from Labor for life if he hands the Liberals a seat they otherwise wouldn’t win in the context of Labor having a really tough election next time aroud.
I am really worried about Werribee – as much as I dislike Allan, Battin scares me, and I’ve had a gut feeling for days that it might be an Ipswich West/Inala-style result that bodes really badly for the state election. I don’t think Labor helped themselves with a lack of infrastructure pledges – to keep the expensive new Werribee courts complex an unused white elephant because they won’t staff it (while the Werribee court is utterly overwhelmed, in facilities from the 60s, with people on bail waiting months for a court date), and propose nothing for the diabolically crap public transport access in the western half of the electorate was a bit of self-harm in my book.
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, February 8, 2025 at 6:01 pm
Nadia
For me
Prahran – Janine Hendry IND
Werribee – ALP
… and Prahran predictions:
TRENT GRN 53+
NADIA88 LIB 53
REX DOUGLAS GRN 55
SCROMOII LIB
CENTAUR09 GRN
MABWM GRN
BIRD OF PARADOX GRN
DANIEL T GRN
BT SAYS GRN
DAMO LIB 51
MICHAEL LIB 52
TAYLORMADE GRN
DRFUMBLES GRN 52
GRIME GRN
PAUL A GRN
LIB25 GRN
DEM SAUSAUGE GRN
SPROCKET__ Ind.