The campaign for the Western Australian election on March 8 formally commences this week with the issuing of the writs, there are two interesting Victorian state by-elections on Saturday (more on one of them below), and there will shortly be a New South Wales state by-election to contend with in Port Macquarie following retirement announcement from Nationals-turned-Liberal member Leslie Williams. That’s to say nothing of the small matter of a looming federal election, for which April 12 is generally considered the most likely date, particularly after last week’s inflation numbers shortened the odds on an interest rate cut later this month.
Also of note:
• The Financial Review this week had polling data for the 18-to-34 cohort broken down by gender, combined from Freshwater Strategy’s monthly polling in November, December and January. Presumably inspired by the stark divide in voting and ideology that’s opened up between young men and women in the United States, the results find the phenomenon to be relatively subdued here: the big difference was that support for the Greens was at 32% among young women and 20% among young men, with both major parties scoring higher among men (Labor 36%, Coalition 32%) than women (Labor 32%, Coalition 25%). Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group calculates two-party Labor leads of 67-33 among the women and 59-41 among the men. Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 58-27 among the women and 55-37 among the men, but both leaders scored much worse among women than men on net approval.
• 7News has a new election prediction model, in which political science academics Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo were involved. Mansillo was also involved in The Guardian’s tracker, but this one is quite different: whereas The Guardian’s model goes far beyond any poll result in crediting the Coalition with a commanding 53.1-46.9 lead, the 7News model has it at 51-49. Mansillo is quoted saying the mode leans just slightly in favour of Labor forming government because of an inefficiently distributed Coalition swing, leaving them set to run up margins in already safe rural and regional seats.
• Labor’s Stephen Jones announced last week that he will not seek re-election in his Illawarra region seat of Whitlam. Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reports the only known contender for Labor preselection is Keely O’Brien, general manger of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers. However, O’Brien is of the Right and the consensus appears to be that the Right will not formally oppose the national executive ratifying the nominee of Jones’s own Left faction. The report further relates that an informal deal reserves Whitlam to the Left and the state seat of Shoalhaven to the Right, but some consider the Right is owed a seat after Anthony Albanese imposed Ashvini Ambihaipahar of the Left in Barton.
• The South Australian Liberal Party has chosen Leah Blyth, education executive and state party president, to fill the Senate vacancy created by Simon Birmingham’s retirement, replacing a moderate with a conservative. Brad Crouch of The Advertiser reports Blyth won the party ballot with 119 votes to 71 for lawyer Sam Hooper and 11 for Adelaide councillor Henry Davis. As Birmingham was re-elected in 2022, Blyth will not be required to contest the coming election.
• A party vote to disendorse Jacob Vadakkedathu as the Liberals’ Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate over branch stacking allegations was defeated on Saturday. X account Preselection Updates relates the margin was 109 votes to 74.
• Patrick Durkin of the Financial Review (no link available at present) reports Labor polling shows Saturday’s by-election in Werribee “could be as close as 48-52” in favour of the government, suggesting a 9% Liberal swing. However, Liberals “denied the race was that close” and said a 5% swing would be a good result. Chip Le Grand of The Age also cites a Liberal source talking down the party’s chances by citing a “missed opportunity” to win over the local Indian community by preselecting local businessman Rajan Chopra, instead choosing 63-year-old real estate agent Steve Murphy.
[While i’m from Victoria, so no coverage here of it. Why was a State Government Minister in a comcar. Aren’t they Commonwealth cars and thus Federal?]
Who said it was a comcar ?
NSW have their own cars and drivers!
“NAB becomes first of big four banks to cut fixed-interest mortgage rates.”
Fixed-rate, not variable-rate (yet). Come in spinner.
Doesn’t parliament resume this week?
Do you think Albo might actually have the courage to introduce restrictions on gambling advertising before calling the election? It would most certainly help his chances, I’m sure many here would wish that he did exactly just that!
But, no. Albo is far too weak. The real PM Vlandys throws a bone and Tennis Albo goes fetches!
I wonder if AE could give us a form guide on counsel at the Lattouf matter?
Further evidence Albo and Husic have been exposed as dragging their feet at huge cost to the Australian economy. All their energies are going into stopping A.I. in Australia and buying it from Microsoft.
His performance at the Press Club
I’m afraid Albo is a lost cause on AI
https://www.innovationaus.com/government-exposed-by-lack-of-action-on-ai/
The interest rate drop in February could be something for the ages !
Oh, FFS Meher, please keep up. You are 17 years late:
“ And A_E, I simply love the idea that we and the US and others are goading China into invading Taiwan. Who on earth told you that? Tulsi Gabbard?”
________
I’ll start you off on your belated voyage of discovery with THIS article:
https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/the-pivot-to-asia-was-obamas-biggest-mistake/
No Tulusi Gabbard farts in that one.
If you keep googling you’ll find the confessions of the Commander of 7th Fleet back when the Air-Sea Battle Doctrine was first rolled out back in 2009 – it was 100% the order of the day to be ‘in your face’ with the calculated intent to cause China to make a military mistake which could then be used as a pretext for a ‘nice simple war’ leading to internal CCP collapse once its leadership was disgraced and humiliated.
I already posted this article from 2021 this morning, but perhaps you can have a look at that:
https://johnmenadue.com/strategists-admit-west-is-goading-china-into-war/
Socratessays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 1:55 pm
Entropy
Sorry my error. It was a State parliamentary car.
================================================
The standard response here. Is to say we made her a drought envoy. So she had to go everywhere. She will file her report on a mobile phone.
Though didn’t Barnaby drive a comcar into a flood and right it off?
Though the irony of a drought envoy driving into a flooded creek, is priceless.
I asked an economist who I know did their PhD on this topic and he summarized thusly. The Australian dollar tends to move in line with commodity prices, as we lack a sovereign wealth fund to buffer the impact of price fluctuations. While a 10% tariff on Chinese exports to the US is relatively minor in terms of China’s overall trade competitiveness, Australia faces additional challenges. Competition from Canada, seeking alternative export markets, adds pressure, as does slowing global economic growth, including in China. More broadly, Trump’s trade policies are dampening global growth, and Australia, being heavily linked to growth cycles, is feeling the impact
I am a considerable skeptic on AI. I am not saying it is nota real thing, but like so many IT innovations, I suspect it will have far less real world value than claimed.
I can’t comment on the application of AI in other fields. But in my field (transport planning including demand forecasting and network management) AI has been proposed to address various challenges. So far it has been rarely of any more value than well written code using current technology.
MI
Yep. China being a mercantilist economy consistently seeks to diversify sources for all its significant import materials. Once it has established the production centres and supply chains the screws come on. Long term* Australia’s main mineral and agriculture commodities are doomed. Inter alia, falling population levels in East Asia are guaranteeing this outcome.
Dutton shows not the slightest glimmer of awareness about any of this.
Albanese sort of gets it but the shift required is economy wide and the resistance to the changes required are immense and those opposite, chief among whom Dutton and Bandt, are more interested in opposing for opposition’s sake than anything else.
*Trump may be bringing this forward by a half a generation.
This is an own goal from Labor…
The RAN has accepted the NUSHIP (HMAS) Arafura, three years after its launch.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/australian-navy-accepts-first-arafura-class-opv/
That is an unusually long time for acceptance trials for a relatively simple ship with no missile systems. As I have said before, the problems with Defense systems related to naval procurement remain unaddressed.
IMO she should resign. If she doesn’t resign she should be sacked.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/02/nsw-minister-apologises-after-asking-chauffeur-drive-winery-australia-day-weekend-ntwnfb
The Wombat says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 2:40 pm
Jo Haylen should clearly resign or be sacked. Worse, she’s already got form in abusing her position, and they’ve only been in government less than 2 years.
——————————————
Minns seems quite attached to Haylen.
Prior to this latest scandal from Jo Haylen:
1) August 23, 2023. The New South Wales premier has defended his transport minister Jo Haylen, saying he does not believe she breached the ministerial code by initially not declaring a political donation to her campaign from the former staffer she later chose to lead her department.
Chris Minns on Tuesday confirmed he was made aware of the $500 donation to Haylen’s campaign “a couple of days after” Josh Murray was publicly announced as the NSW transport secretary.
2)November 6, 2023. Premier Chris Minns has denied the state opposition’s claim that the transport minister breached the ministerial code of conduct, amid revelations a Labor-linked public servant in her office may have engaged in political work.
An investigation has been launched into Transport for NSW bureaucrat Kieren Ash, who was seconded to work in Ms Haylen’s office in a non-political position known as a department liaison officer (DLO).
Mr Ash, who ran as Labor’s candidate for Pittwater in 2015 and managed the party’s unsuccessful campaign to win Balmain this year, was requested specifically by Ms Haylen’s office.
Diogenes says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 2:56 pm
Further evidence Albo and Husic have been exposed as dragging their feet at huge cost to the Australian economy. All their energies are going into stopping A.I. in Australia and buying it from Microsoft.
His performance at the Press Club
I’m afraid Albo is a lost cause on AI
Probable getting advice from people that know what they are talking about. Waste as little money as possible on the hype.
Clearly Diogenes it is not your field.
Entropysays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 1:49 pm
While i’m from Victoria, so no coverage here of it.
_____________________
You are not looking too hard are you.
I have been wondering what this will mean for our interest rates cuts, could the RBA state that due to the expected inflationary costs of the tariffs on the worldwide economy ”no soup for you!’
Minns is very lucky to have Minister Park on hand, not only is he Health minister but he was also a senior transport bureacrat, he can easily step into Transport and provide authority and leadership in the Transport Portfolio.
‘Socrates says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 3:13 pm
…’
==================
Yep. FFS.
20knts, a 25mm cannon and a couple of machine guns. No missiles.
Underpowered. Slow. Undergunned. Too few. Late.
Apart from that Defence has hit the nail on the head…
‘Mostly Interested says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 3:22 pm
I have been wondering what this will mean for our interest rates cuts, could the RBA state that due to the expected inflationary costs of the tariffs on the worldwide economy ”no soup for you!’’
===========================
Hard to say. They appear to be conservative so they may want to see how the chaos turns out. OTOH, they may decide that the economy may need a bit more resilience in troubled times therefore reduce the interest rate.
I imagine they will be doing bigger than usual guesses.
Like the rest of us.
I think a rate cut in February will be as much of a silver bullet as the Stage 3 tax cuts , or the triumph of guillotining a bunch of performative bills late last year.
Only 103 days maximum until the whole rotten show comes to a close.
Either power is passed to the Teals by the ALP – with a handover of Treasury most likely to Allegra or we will have to endure a Grand Coalition as the final stage before genuine reform.
It is good to see that both Trump and Dutton know what they are doing.
Taylormadesays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 3:21 pm
Entropysays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 1:49 pm
While i’m from Victoria, so no coverage here of it.
_____________________
You are not looking too hard are you.
========================================================
I’m Victorian and so it has an SEP field around it.
Poor old Lars. Like Dutton, fears a rate cut.
Defence needs a cleanout top to bottom.
‘Why can’t she come down with flu or Covid or a stomach upset? We owe her nothing.
Goooooooooooooooooooooooooooorn.
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 3:29 pm
I think a rate cut in February will be as much of a silver bullet as the Stage 3 tax cuts , or the triumph of guillotining a bunch of performative bills late last year.
Only 103 days maximum until the whole rotten show comes to a close.
————————-
Lars von Trier is perspiring like The federal Lib/nats and propaganda media units , about the interest rates cuts
”
BSA Bobsays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 1:26 pm
An interesting little fact I’ve only seen mentioned once is that Canada’s Head of State is King Charles III.
I suppose it’ll be him Trump tells the War of 1812’s still going.
”
Bob
I think Trump doesn’t know or has that King Charles is head of state of Canada or has no idea how Canadian government works.
Like British monarch is Australia’s last line of defence against Dutton, British monarch is Canada’s last line of defence against Trump.
Interesting isn’t it?
The interest rates cuts were always likely to happen before the 2025 federal election
The lib/nats propaganda media units, went hard halfway through 2024 for an early federal election , even tried to propaganda opinion polling , and fudge statistics to suit their agenda .
But Labor/Albanese did not budge
A staggering amount of rain has inundated parts of Queensland’s northeast coast over the past week, with some places picking up more than 1.7 metres of rain during what has become an historic event for the region. A relentless feed of moisture-laden winds converging over Qld’s North Tropical Coast region has produce a prolonged period of exceptionally heavy rain over the past week. This rain was enhanced by a slow-moving low pressure system and active monsoon trough, which caused a weather pattern than drew in vast amount of tropical atmospheric moisture and focused it over a relatively small area of northern Qld.
Based on annual exceedance probability (AEP), Rollingstone’s 48-hour and 72-hour rainfall rates were both rarer than a one in 2000-year event. Put another way, this much rain over these timeframes has less than a 0.05 % likelihood of occurring in any given year.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/queensland-deluge-rarer-than-one-in-2000year-event/1890328
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 3:43 pm
A staggering amount of rain has inundated parts of Queensland’s northeast coast over the past week, with some places picking up more than 1.7 metres of rain during what has become an historic event for the region….’
==================
Chrisafulli flat out lied about this one.
He called it a once in a century event.
Not a bloody clue.
It is like having pied piper runing the state.
Chrisafulli has shut down the massive hydrogen project.
He is totally unfit for office.
“Poor old Lars. Like Dutton, fears a rate cut.”
———————————–
Have some understanding.
There will be no LNP Ministerial staffer jobs if there are no LNP Ministers 🙂
Rex D @ 3.12 pm
Even the Greens, that’s correct, the Greens are showing more leadership than Albo by acting in the interests of consumers and not a powerful representative such as Vlandys of the horse racing/gambling industry.
The Labor Party of today has degenerated into a weak powerless shambles.
It’s time to change the government!
What’s been fascinating with the deluge up north is its almost completely escaped media attention, until really just the last 24 hours. It’s been causing chaos for a week, with major roads cut, including the Bruce. Airports have also been closed. Our supermarkets have been unable to resupply, so we are out of staples like bread. Yet it was almost complete radio silence until today. It’s another great example of the retreat of our media into our big cities. It’s changed dramatically since I was a kid.
If you live in regional Australia, Facebook is effectively your news service. Many aspects of my day-to-day life are now only on social media. The mainstream media out here has evaporated. Many topics that are of vital importance in regional areas get absolutely zero media attention. Exactly the same thing has happened in the US, and I’m absolutely convinced it’s contributing to the rise of Trump and similar politicians. Thankfully the rural ABC is being somewhat reinvigorated with the Google tax.
Centre
It wont happen the federal lib/nats are in opposition likely until 2031, they may be a chance at the 2031 federal election
The Greens, Centre and Rex are on the same page.
Have been for two and a half years, so it is not a surprise.
Sad to see Ita losing cred in her twilight years.
Boer
Yep, one of your best, me on the same page as the Greens. What does that say about the Labor Party? You and your fellow Labor supporters deserve better than that current weak rabble. Hopefully, the Labor Party can find its way again at some time in the future.
Should Labor support the Greens’ gambling ad bill …?
”It’s time to change the government!”
No it isn’t and will never be with the current Trumpish opposition.
If Minister Park takes on transport can we expect to see Oshiya at Central Station?
https://youtu.be/o9Xg7ui5mLA?si=1EQK5JbsltsAcbDO
The Wombat @ #237 Monday, February 3rd, 2025 – 3:53 pm
There’s truth to that. Pretty much all the local papers and news services have been absorbed into the Australian media… “Quintopoly”? (I think there’s pretty much 5 main ones left). Also they’re pretty much all paywalled.
That just leaves the ABC left and their timid journalist corps are terrified of being thrown into the oubliette when the Coalition returns to power so they’re mostly worthless.
Peter Dutton will be a one term federal liberal party leader
If the federal lib /nats 2025 federal election result , is around the 2022 federal election result or worse.
If he is voted out of the electorate of Dickson
Another reason for weakness in the AUD is because of the strengthening of the USD as a result of Trump’s tariffs.
Also, how can Labor be a fan of AI? How are they going to store it, with wind turbines, solar, and batteries – please, what a joke!
Centre says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 3:58 pm
Boer
Yep, one of your best, me on the same page as the Greens. What does that say about…’
======================
…political opportunists. Destructive oppositionists. Feckless posters…
…plenty…
Agreed The Wombat.
We get a little bit of it on the news and mainly 4BC, but the focus of the media is trivia.
Oh look – here is meghan useless markle doing something useless.
Pam the Bird has drawn a picture somewhere, &
naughty Aussies are sitting on the beach with beach tents.
Very sad.
US Dow jones futures now down 700 points, and the Oz dollar has steadied at a 1.92% drop.
If the dollar continues to fall, is that likely to impact an interest rate cut in a couple of weeks, or not relevant.
If the Aussie dollar keeps falling they wont let interest rates drop too much. Drop below the magic USD 60c and will be prodding the inflation genie again with things like consumer goods imports, fuel prices and so on.
Nadia
The chances of a rate cut on Feb 18 have all but been penciled in. If our dollar continues to fall, it could postpone further rate cuts. That will be in Dutton’s term.