The campaign for the Western Australian election on March 8 formally commences this week with the issuing of the writs, there are two interesting Victorian state by-elections on Saturday (more on one of them below), and there will shortly be a New South Wales state by-election to contend with in Port Macquarie following retirement announcement from Nationals-turned-Liberal member Leslie Williams. That’s to say nothing of the small matter of a looming federal election, for which April 12 is generally considered the most likely date, particularly after last week’s inflation numbers shortened the odds on an interest rate cut later this month.
Also of note:
• The Financial Review this week had polling data for the 18-to-34 cohort broken down by gender, combined from Freshwater Strategy’s monthly polling in November, December and January. Presumably inspired by the stark divide in voting and ideology that’s opened up between young men and women in the United States, the results find the phenomenon to be relatively subdued here: the big difference was that support for the Greens was at 32% among young women and 20% among young men, with both major parties scoring higher among men (Labor 36%, Coalition 32%) than women (Labor 32%, Coalition 25%). Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group calculates two-party Labor leads of 67-33 among the women and 59-41 among the men. Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 58-27 among the women and 55-37 among the men, but both leaders scored much worse among women than men on net approval.
• 7News has a new election prediction model, in which political science academics Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo were involved. Mansillo was also involved in The Guardian’s tracker, but this one is quite different: whereas The Guardian’s model goes far beyond any poll result in crediting the Coalition with a commanding 53.1-46.9 lead, the 7News model has it at 51-49. Mansillo is quoted saying the mode leans just slightly in favour of Labor forming government because of an inefficiently distributed Coalition swing, leaving them set to run up margins in already safe rural and regional seats.
• Labor’s Stephen Jones announced last week that he will not seek re-election in his Illawarra region seat of Whitlam. Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reports the only known contender for Labor preselection is Keely O’Brien, general manger of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers. However, O’Brien is of the Right and the consensus appears to be that the Right will not formally oppose the national executive ratifying the nominee of Jones’s own Left faction. The report further relates that an informal deal reserves Whitlam to the Left and the state seat of Shoalhaven to the Right, but some consider the Right is owed a seat after Anthony Albanese imposed Ashvini Ambihaipahar of the Left in Barton.
• The South Australian Liberal Party has chosen Leah Blyth, education executive and state party president, to fill the Senate vacancy created by Simon Birmingham’s retirement, replacing a moderate with a conservative. Brad Crouch of The Advertiser reports Blyth won the party ballot with 119 votes to 71 for lawyer Sam Hooper and 11 for Adelaide councillor Henry Davis. As Birmingham was re-elected in 2022, Blyth will not be required to contest the coming election.
• A party vote to disendorse Jacob Vadakkedathu as the Liberals’ Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate over branch stacking allegations was defeated on Saturday. X account Preselection Updates relates the margin was 109 votes to 74.
• Patrick Durkin of the Financial Review (no link available at present) reports Labor polling shows Saturday’s by-election in Werribee “could be as close as 48-52” in favour of the government, suggesting a 9% Liberal swing. However, Liberals “denied the race was that close” and said a 5% swing would be a good result. Chip Le Grand of The Age also cites a Liberal source talking down the party’s chances by citing a “missed opportunity” to win over the local Indian community by preselecting local businessman Rajan Chopra, instead choosing 63-year-old real estate agent Steve Murphy.
An interesting little fact I’ve only seen mentioned once is that Canada’s Head of State is King Charles III.
I suppose it’ll be him Trump tells the War of 1812’s still going.
So does Gina want Dutton to tariff China ?
Victoria
“The orange menace has unequivocally stated that Canada needs to be the 51st state.
He is attempting a hostile take over. Canada is saying f@@k off.”
—————————————————–
Legally it is virtually impossible for Canada to be peacefully incorporated into USA. The respective laws in each country would make it a political nightmare that couldbe easily blocked by minorities on either side.
So I don’t think Trump is serious about Canada becoming a 51st state. (I think he is serious about Greenland).
However I think Trump is doing this to (a) troll a left of centre Canadian PM he doesn’t like and (b) appeal to his base/deflect attention from failures of “day one” promises.
He is going to be “flooding the zone with shit” for the next four years. We need to get used to it.
steve davis says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 1:24 pm
Dow Jones futures down 600 pts.
============================
OZ Dollar seems to have taken a bit of a tumble today too.
Just fell below 61 cents.
Link I’m watching here – https://www.fxempire.com/currencies/aud-usd
In simple language – what’s going on?
I didn’t think we were impacted by the tariff war which kicks off soon.
Socrates
You are basically saying that the leader of the free world is just talking shit and doesn’t mean what he says.
You know that in itself is batshit?
Latest Ipsos Issue Monitor.
No primaries here, and not much of a change from Dec.
Not too sure why I posted this, as it’s not really much of a read, but anyway here it is
Link: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/publication/documents/2025-02/IM_Nat_January25_v1.pdf
Trump is doing a tarrific job of wrecking the joint.
“Cash: Trump a ‘man of action’ and Coalition would have ‘exact same attitude’”
Fair enough Rex. Frankly I’d like to see a rapprochement between earlwood and lars. Although I am wary of any attempt to lure Lars into a bar where he may be set upon by C@t, entropy, griff and other assorted ne’er do wells. Lars safety must be gauranteed before any meeting. Possibly by an exchange of hostages.
And what to make of that dopey NSW Transport minister… ?
Senator Penny Wong@SenatorWong
The Albanese Government has imposed strict counter-terrorism financing sanctions on white supremacist network Terrorgram as part of our work to combat antisemitism and keep Australians safe.
This is the first time Australia has ever imposed these sanctions on an online entity.
BKsays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 1:23 pm
It will be interesting to see what the global appetite for tourism to the US becomes.
==============================================================
Son currently holidaying in US near Canadian boarder.
Canadians he has encountered really pissed!
First hand experience of being in the middle of a war zone!!
BK
My sympathy on MS Office. I have no choice to use it because a lot of my work is doing economic analysis in Excel and business case documents in Word that leave m no choice but to use MS Office. I bought the one off purchase of MS Office at JB Hifi which avoids the annual fee. I much prefer it.
The general behavior of software companies (esp Apple and Microsoft) is getting appallingly bad. The cynical means to prevent use of rival products is infuriating.
I have been setting up a new work PC in the last few days (Lenovo laptop) because I finally gave up trying to do them on my Mac. In theory the Mac version of Office/Word/Excel should work seamlessly going from Mac to PC. In practice it does not.
Anything with macros or large tables in a template often gets scrambled. The last job doing the reformatting of the output tables took me as long as the analysis. So I surrendered and have bought a Windows machine. I am still using the Mac for home.
Outside of them I also recommend Duck Duck Go for a very ad-free Web browser instead of MS Edge/Explorer and Mozilla Thunderbird for mail instead of Outlook.
‘nadia88 says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 1:31 pm
steve davis says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 1:24 pm
Dow Jones futures down 600 pts.
============================
OZ Dollar seems to have taken a bit of a tumble today too.
Just fell below 61 cents.
Link I’m watching here – https://www.fxempire.com/currencies/aud-usd
In simple language – what’s going on?
I didn’t think we were impacted by the tariff war which kicks off soon.’
======================
The value of the Aussie is significantly determined by minerals commodity prices.
Commodity prices are subject to supply and demand. Demand for our mineral exports is mainly driven by China. In turn this depends on domestic consumption and exports.
China’s consumption is being whacked by falling wages, rising unemployment and a crash in the construction industry.
China’s exports to the US just got whacked with a 10% additional tariff. We can reasonably anticipate that this would reduce China’s demand.
So the Aussie heads south.
Thank you President Trump.
And here we have the bone-headed Cash:
Trump a ‘man of action’ and Coalition would have ‘exact same attitude’”
Dutton is promising to become Captain Chaos.
Rex
“And what to make of that dopey NSW Transport minister… ?”
She certainly had a Bronwyn Bishop moment. 400km and 13 hours in a parliamentary car around the Hunter Valley?? It is an eggregious abuse of the perks of office. No excuse. Unforgiveable a few months out from a Federal election.
In the past Ministers would have been had to resign over this. Though NSW seems to have always had lower standards of MP behavior, whether Labor or Liberal.
Trump keeps saying Canada becoming the 51st State
Lets just say Canada did become the 51st state, it would be bigger than the current US state, California, and in all likelihood would likely be a Democrat State therefore it would destroy the hope of Republicans ever getting back into the Whitehouse as it would have the largest no. of electoral college votes. Conservatives and right wing parties only get around 40% of the vote in any election. And in a Presidential election it is primarily a choice between a Republican and Democrat for president.
Seriously, does he ever think things thru?
Socratessays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 1:46 pm
Rex
“And what to make of that dopey NSW Transport minister… ?”
She certainly had a Bronwyn Bishop moment. 400km and 13 hours in a comcar around the Hunter Valley??
===================================================
While i’m from Victoria, so no coverage here of it. Why was a State Government Minister in a comcar. Aren’t they Commonwealth cars and thus Federal?
Victoria
I don’t mean to imply all Trump’s threats are idle. He is a dangerous fool IMO. But on the Canada statehood threat, I posted a link to a legal article on it here a few weeks ago. It is almost impossible to do.
The relevant Canadian law is very hard to comply with. There would need to be a referendum with an overall majority in favor, and a majority in favor in every province. It makes passing Australian referenda look easy.
The US law is equally difficult. An Act has to be passed with the exact terms stated and passed ion both Houses. The question of how many States Canada would comprise and how many Senators and presidential college delegates it would get would create a huge debate. Many small states might object.
The alternative is war. That would be unthinkable. It would destroy NATO. It would require a vote to be passed in Congress to go to war.
”
Boerwarsays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 9:37 am
It is not as if they are lying about this.
From The Guardian:
“Cash: Trump a ‘man of action’ and Coalition would have ‘exact same attitude’”
”
So the cat is out of the bag and it is ugly and nasty.
Entropy
Sorry my error. It was a State parliamentary car.
We have an unusual situation.
Our trade balance with the US is in the US’ favour.
That is the perfect opportunity for Dutton to whack the US with tariffs when he does exactly what Trump does, should enough Australian turkeys buy Dutton’s scam.
It’s weird to think that so many self identifying ‘conservatives’ voted for such a radical extremist and organised crook Trump.
Thanks BW. Looks like a bit of a wild ride coming up, with the dow jones futures now 664 points down
I don’t think Trump is worried about the next election and whether the annexation of Canada into the USA will increase the Democrat vote, as he doesn’t believe there will be any more elections in that part of the world.
jo haylen is a clueless dolt if she had any integrity she’d resign forthwith, as it is
she should, along with rose jackson, be immediately sacked. Chicken minns 😡
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/02/nsw-minister-apologises-after-asking-chauffeur-drive-winery-australia-day-weekend-ntwnfb
Kirky says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 1:49 pm
Trump keeps saying Canada becoming the 51st State
Lets just say Canada did become the 51st state, it would be bigger than the current US state, California, and in all likelihood would likely be a Democrat State therefore it would destroy the hope of Republicans ever getting back into the Whitehouse as it would have the largest no. of electoral college votes. Conservatives and right wing parties only get around 40% of the vote in any election. And in a Presidential election it is primarily a choice between a Republican and Democrat for president.
Seriously, does he ever think things thru?
_________________________
Who said anything about needing elections? By then Trump will have decided to appoint himself Lord Protector, Emperor of the Americas and President for life anyway and then pass it on to Trump Jnr North Korean style
Crooked Trump might even abandon the Republican party and start his own nationalist party, like Farage.
Speaking of NSW ministerial standards and state cars. The state’s worst ever health minister was not forced to resign after she forced her driver to sleep in the car while she was shagging a random journalist.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/meagher-apologises-to-driver-left-waiting-all-night-20080812-gdsq6z.html
Or better still, cut out the insults altogether and just debate the issues. Now there’s a radical thought.
Re my earlier use of the term “girly man” in the context of macho posturing…
It seems that there aren’t enough TV comedy fans on PB.
“Girly man” was first used by Dana Carvey in his impersonation of Arnold Schwarzenegger on Saturday Night Live. It was then borrowed by Shaun Micallef for Mad as Hell where it became “economic girly man” in the mouth of Darius Horsham, “Spokesperson” for Matthias Cormann.
It should always be said in a German/Austrian accent.
In context, it’s funny rather than offensive.
PS.: A_E and others have accused me several times of wanting to go to war over Taiwan. I did not say that. I simply said that, unlike PJK apparently, I’m not enamoured of the idea of Trump doing something like telling Xi “go ahead, it’s all yours.
F—- them. They stole our semiconductor industry.”
And A_E, I simply love the idea that we and the US and others are goading China into invading Taiwan. Who on earth told you that? Tulsi Gabbard?
Socrates @ #164 Monday, February 3rd, 2025 – 1:41 pm
Socrates. Windows users have the same problems with Excel. Excel ‘compiles’ VBA code at three different levels, and to make it work seamlessly at clients with differing versions/ages of Office, I ‘decompile’ the code first and deliver that version of the ‘xlsm file.
This works well https://orlandomvp.org/VBADecompilerMore.asp
On Greenland, where I think the Trump annexation threat is much more serious, this is a link to a video by the series “Binkov’s Battlegrounds” that looks at the military implications of USA occupying Greenland. It is geographically very significant in the event of any USA – Russia conflict.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDFqMjy172k
Despite this video series being literally narrated by a sock puppet, the technical content is surprisingly accurate.
”
1934Pcsays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 12:07 pm
In regard to Trumps Xeet (?) stating Canada should become the 51st state of the US?????
That statement alone shows something is wrong with his head, it’s not logical or possible !.
”
And Canadian resident ‘Wombat’, is silent on that. Interesting.
Canadian conservatives, who were supposed to win by landslide as per polls had their lead cut drastically, are supporting Tariffs on US.
Yabba
Thanks. Its a bit late for me now, having paid to make the transition to PC, but useful to know.
“Cash: Trump a ‘man of action’ and Coalition would have ‘exact same attitude’”
__________
Thus demonstrating what keen, original and constructive thinkers they are.
Well, the ASX 200 at its lowest level before midday fell to 8,350 points.
It’s rallied since to climb to 8,390 points – I was getting ready to pounce.
I blame C@t and her brainless band of loony left followers!
C’mon you can do better than that, try harder to talk down Trump’s tariffs and the potential harm to the global economy 😀
Although the ASX 200 is trading at 8,370 as I type.
I wonder what would happen if somebody suggested that Trump should demand a percentage cut of all the Australian Liberals’ campaign donations?
This could be on the grounds that Dutton and co are recycling virtually the entire Trump campaign strategy and tactics in their own campaign for the 2025 Australian election without acknowledgement. They could be argued to be stealing Trump’s IP 🙂
From the Guardian, in ominous news for the Exact Same Attitude Dutton, ‘NAB becomes first of big four banks to cut fixed-interest mortgage rates.’
Centre becoming more of a right wing looney everyday.
Socrates
FWIW
The US invaded (without resistance) and captured both Greenland and Iceland in the second world war.
Iceland in particular was of enormous strategic importance in the Battle of the Atlantic.
Greenland was important because it had the shortest great circle flight routes to Britain. This enabled larger planes to be ferried to Britain by air.
Both were significant for land-based aerial anti submarine patrols.
The strategic logic in the North Atlantic/Arctic Sea is that, if you want Greenland, you MUST HAVE Iceland as a higher priority.
The US ALREADY HAS military bases in Iceland and Greenland under NATO.
So, if logic and the facts are relevant, the motivation for conquering Greenland is not the non-existent Russian threat. Particularly when Trump admires Putin.
They are lying.
Dutton has exactly the same attitude according to Cash. And she should know.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_Air_Station_Keflavik
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pituffik_Space_Base
‘Centre says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 2:13 pm
….’
===============
Trump&cronies love plucking woodies just like you.
Dutton has the exact same attitude.
steve davis
I’m going to try to move (on the market) before the big institutions. Very hard to do!
Good opportunity in the month or two ahead.
Centre
Did Kenny Rogers sing a song about you.?
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 12:30 pm
goll
[I sleep very well at night]
Are you Rupert Murdoch ?
steve d
I don’t know, you tell me 🙂
Centre
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo
Steve d
There is a lot of truth in that song for real 😉
It was actually Britain that invaded Iceland but they handed control to the US later.
There is an argument that the UK and by extension Canada have first rights to any sale of Greenland by Denmark. Canada and Greenland have a land border on Hans Island.
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/28/nx-s1-5276173/denmarks-greenland-uk-trump
Jo Haylen should clearly resign or be sacked. Worse, she’s already got form in abusing her position, and they’ve only been in government less than 2 years.
Grattan on Albanese’s man problem.
https://citynews.com.au/2025/albaneses-man-problem-polling-worries-labor/
OC
Thanks for the clarification.