The campaign for the Western Australian election on March 8 formally commences this week with the issuing of the writs, there are two interesting Victorian state by-elections on Saturday (more on one of them below), and there will shortly be a New South Wales state by-election to contend with in Port Macquarie following retirement announcement from Nationals-turned-Liberal member Leslie Williams. That’s to say nothing of the small matter of a looming federal election, for which April 12 is generally considered the most likely date, particularly after last week’s inflation numbers shortened the odds on an interest rate cut later this month.
Also of note:
• The Financial Review this week had polling data for the 18-to-34 cohort broken down by gender, combined from Freshwater Strategy’s monthly polling in November, December and January. Presumably inspired by the stark divide in voting and ideology that’s opened up between young men and women in the United States, the results find the phenomenon to be relatively subdued here: the big difference was that support for the Greens was at 32% among young women and 20% among young men, with both major parties scoring higher among men (Labor 36%, Coalition 32%) than women (Labor 32%, Coalition 25%). Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group calculates two-party Labor leads of 67-33 among the women and 59-41 among the men. Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 58-27 among the women and 55-37 among the men, but both leaders scored much worse among women than men on net approval.
• 7News has a new election prediction model, in which political science academics Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo were involved. Mansillo was also involved in The Guardian’s tracker, but this one is quite different: whereas The Guardian’s model goes far beyond any poll result in crediting the Coalition with a commanding 53.1-46.9 lead, the 7News model has it at 51-49. Mansillo is quoted saying the mode leans just slightly in favour of Labor forming government because of an inefficiently distributed Coalition swing, leaving them set to run up margins in already safe rural and regional seats.
• Labor’s Stephen Jones announced last week that he will not seek re-election in his Illawarra region seat of Whitlam. Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reports the only known contender for Labor preselection is Keely O’Brien, general manger of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers. However, O’Brien is of the Right and the consensus appears to be that the Right will not formally oppose the national executive ratifying the nominee of Jones’s own Left faction. The report further relates that an informal deal reserves Whitlam to the Left and the state seat of Shoalhaven to the Right, but some consider the Right is owed a seat after Anthony Albanese imposed Ashvini Ambihaipahar of the Left in Barton.
• The South Australian Liberal Party has chosen Leah Blyth, education executive and state party president, to fill the Senate vacancy created by Simon Birmingham’s retirement, replacing a moderate with a conservative. Brad Crouch of The Advertiser reports Blyth won the party ballot with 119 votes to 71 for lawyer Sam Hooper and 11 for Adelaide councillor Henry Davis. As Birmingham was re-elected in 2022, Blyth will not be required to contest the coming election.
• A party vote to disendorse Jacob Vadakkedathu as the Liberals’ Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate over branch stacking allegations was defeated on Saturday. X account Preselection Updates relates the margin was 109 votes to 74.
• Patrick Durkin of the Financial Review (no link available at present) reports Labor polling shows Saturday’s by-election in Werribee “could be as close as 48-52” in favour of the government, suggesting a 9% Liberal swing. However, Liberals “denied the race was that close” and said a 5% swing would be a good result. Chip Le Grand of The Age also cites a Liberal source talking down the party’s chances by citing a “missed opportunity” to win over the local Indian community by preselecting local businessman Rajan Chopra, instead choosing 63-year-old real estate agent Steve Murphy.
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:28 pm
I sort of dreaded but assumed that Trump would try to destroy US climate science and US climate science data. Is this the beginning?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/04/doge-noaa-headquarters
===============
Correct Boerwar – they’re taking over.
The loony scientists can go and pick fruit, and Trump will appoint grown up’s to manage the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration. Enough of climate change catastrophism.
The public are done with it.
In simple language – take your science degree and shove off somewhere else. Just go, and get out of our lives!
Wombat
Hopefully it’s not interesting. She did it.
There are always “experts” that lawyers can find and cherry pick opinions.
Climate fools abound in Magaland.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 7:55 pm
…
Congress and the Senate have become ciphers.
This is by far the biggest problem in USA politics at the moment. If congress does not start acting, it is going to be a disaster. Over the years they already farmed out a lot of their responsibility to the supreme court, and now they are unable to stand up to Trump. The question is, what are they good for?
If pissing Trump off could lead to better outcomes I would be all for it. I could be convinced – there may be some clever game theory to back this up, but I would want someone I believe to be smart and trustworthy to make that case. As it is I see no practical upsides to pissing Trump off.
Making keyboard warriors feel tough and righteous is not a ‘practical upside’.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:29 pm
We should have Rainman as Minister for Foreign Affairs. He would soon have Putin, Xi and Trump sorted.
************************************
Hypocrite!
You continually bang on about how Australia should have a strong and independent defence force.
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:39 pm
Climate fools abound in Magaland.
============
But we vote.
Perhaps you wish to try convince us otherwise.
Ridicule doesn’t help, so try another tack, if you can.
sealionsays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:42 pm
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 7:55 pm
…
Congress and the Senate have become ciphers.
This is by far the biggest problem in USA politics at the moment. If congress does not start acting, it is going to be a disaster. Over the years they already farmed out a lot of their responsibility to the supreme court, and now they are unable to stand up to Trump. The question is, what are they good for?
————
Calm down sealion.
There will be a mid term election in 2026.
Perhaps Kamala can lead the charge
Jackolsays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:42 pm
Who cares if we piss him off. We should tell him to piss off.
If pissing Trump off could lead to better outcomes I would be all for it. I could be convinced – there may be some clever game theory to back this up, but I would want someone I believe to be smart and trustworthy to make that case. As it is I see no practical upsides to pissing Trump off.
Making keyboard warriors feel tough and righteous is not a ‘practical upside’.
================
Exactly Jackol – key board warriors.
Correction, worrier’s
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 4:41 pm
So now Trump the Peacemaker is threatening to obliterate Iran.
How dare Albanese lack the balls not to straight away call Trump and tell him personally not to be so fucking insane!
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I’m with you BW.
As one of the Prime Minister’s strongest supporters, I can’t for the life of me understand his mealy-mouthed response to Trump’s insanity.
Surely someone in DFAT or the PM’s office could come up with something other than that “running commentary” garbage. That will be justly interpreted as going along with the United States and Israel no matter what.
“Albo: One of the two states in your two-state policy is being obliterated and its people dispossessed by the other state with the encouragement of the United States and you have no comment?”
At a time when we see pictures of thousands and thousands of Palestinians with their meager belongings marching for many kilometers into the rubble that was their homes. In the winter, with no shelter, no infrastructure, no hospitals and only meager food that manages to evade Israeli interdiction.
All, we understand, the end result of the U.S. arming Israel with the instruments for their demolition of Gaza. Not to mention the 50,000 dead Palestinian men women and children who got in the way.
Somebody wake me and tell me that it’s all a bad dream.
And we are obsessing over scattered graffiti and a couple of fire-bombings. And thinking of laws that could stifle, inhibit or prohibit criticism of situations like this.
It’s time to call out Netanyahu’s holocaust in Gaza and Trump’s real estate developer approach to international relations. From carpet bombing to carpetbagging.
It’s inevitable that this cowardly approach will drive would-be Labor voters into the arms of the Greens. Labor’s primary vote is low enough at this point and incidents such as this can only make it worse.
Goodbye western Sydney.
Jackol says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:42 pm
“ Making keyboard warriors feel tough and righteous is not a ‘practical upside’.”
I spent my entire working trade union life being “tough and righteous”. And had some pretty good practical outcomes.
I’ve also stood up in front bars for my mates when we weren’t just anonymous cowards on some internet forum.
‘paul A says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:43 pm
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:39 pm
Climate fools abound in Magaland.
============
But we vote.
===============
paul A says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:43 pm
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:39 pm
Climate fools abound in Magaland.
============
But we vote.
Perhaps you wish to try convince us otherwise.
Ridicule doesn’t help, so try another tack, if you can.
===========================
Ridicule is all you are worth, if that.
Rainman says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:43 pm
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:29 pm
We should have Rainman as Minister for Foreign Affairs. He would soon have Putin, Xi and Trump sorted.
************************************
Hypocrite!
You continually bang on about how Australia should have a strong and independent defence force.
____________
Completely in keeping with the ‘walk quietly and carry a big stick’ approach.
Whether you agree with it or not, it is logically sound.
‘beguiledagain says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:49 pm
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 4:41 pm
So now Trump the Peacemaker is threatening to obliterate Iran.
How dare Albanese lack the balls not to straight away call Trump and tell him personally not to be so fucking insane!
=================================================
I’m with you BW.
….’
================
My bad. I was being sarcastic. I see absolutely no value at all in poking the world’s most powerful malignant narcissist in the eye with a burnt stick. Malignant narcissists do not work like that at all. They are insane. Start with that firmly in your mind and take it from there.
The Wombat says Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 6:38 pm
After the near miss*, he now seems to think he was anointed by god (which is a bit surprising as he’s never really worshiped anything except mammon and the mirror). It reinforces his narcissism as it’s further evidence of how special he is.
* One could argue that as the diverted bullet killed a good man, maybe it wasn’t god who changed its path
Why haven’t the media grilled Dutton on his thoughts about Trumps Gaza takeover as per Albanese today?
Is it because he is in hiding, or getting a soft ride from the Murdochcracy as usual?
It does not really matter what Trump’s IQ is. There are arguments for an against him having a high IQ or a low IQ.
The point of thinking about an IQ is that we generally expect a person with a high IQ to think rationally and therefore perhaps to be able to deal with more complex problems.
This does not apply to malignant narcissists. It is virtually an irrelevant consideration. There are no complex problems for Trump.
None.
Douglas and Milko says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 6:52 pm
“And some very good things have come out of the removal of the Iron Curtain. As a visit to Prague shows…”
Sure, I’ve been to Prague too. Beautiful and historic.
Show me a a city that didn’t get bombed by the Nazis and I’ll show you a city full off Nazi sympathisers.
sealion @ #1503 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 8:42 pm
The situation isn’t helped much by the numbers in the House of Reps. Mike Johnson gets the message that if he puts a toe out of line of the will of God-Emperor Trump, he’s going down like Kevin McCarthy. And the non-MAGA Republicans have pretty much all been purged already.
Plus I saw the Dem Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries today in a press conference and he’s just pathetic. He’s up there trying to do an Obama impression without any gravitas. One instance that really got my goat was when he was raising the possibility that “this could be the end of Medicaid” and he immediately moved on to the next sentence, instead of doing the politically logical thing to pause and let that sink in.
The Senate meanwhile on paper might be a bit more hopeful since John Thune was not Trump’s pick for the Majority leader, but not by much since he’s waved through almost all of the MAGA circus for cabinet picks, including the Russian Asset Tulsi Gabbard, the DUI hire Pete Hegseth and the brainworm and drug addled freak RFK Jr.
The only saving grace is that it takes 60 votes to break the filibuster for legislation to get through the Senate, although if the day comes when he decides to just do away with that then it’s pretty much over.
‘Been There says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:58 pm
Why haven’t the media grilled Dutton….’
=================
Dutton does not provide real journalists much opportunity to question him about anything at all. He gets his tummy stroked by bought-and-paid-fors. That is about it.
Trump’s going to spurt out brain farts just about every day (thank dog that some day’s he will take time off for golf). If Albanese had grandstanded on Gaza today (whether supporting or opposing) then that would have been the story and not whatever Albanese was announcing today.
Diogenessays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:37 pm
Wombat
Hopefully it’s not interesting. She did it.
There are always “experts” that lawyers can find and cherry pick opinions.
****************************
Nobody is more distrustful of “experts”, particularly medical experts, than me. And I won’t pretend to know much about the case or neonatology. If this does turn into “something”, it’s going to be an absolutely enormous event for the UK legal system and the NHS.
Kirsdarke says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 9:01 pm
…’
================
IMO the problem is deeper than you think. It is that Trump et al have shown zero reluctance to break laws. In that context, Congress can legislate until the cows come home and have zero impact.
It’s telling that far-right grifters don’t really believe anything they say. If they truly thought Trump would be a force of good in the world then they wouldn’t constantly be taunting their opponents with him being in power and trying to gleefully revel in their misery.
In the end they’re just layer upon layer of angry hate-filled miserable incel freaks.
Crossbench independents requesting today a rise in welfare payments as a condition in the case of a hung parliament.60 bucks a week!
They see the labor government is gone as a solo entity already.
If Trump thinks Palestinians will relocate on his command, he’s not a student of history – not that that’s ever been an issue. I’m off to view MAFS’ repeats. Dear, D & M, I’m sure you don’t have the occasional peak(?).
Why anyone thinks the PM’s reiteration of the Two State solution in the ME is (what Oz still believes to be) a pallid response has got me puzzled.
Oz has held this policy for some time – along with the majority of world governments.
As many have commented here – and with M Cash likening Dutton to Trump – he is hiding from scrutiny on just where he and the LNP stand on the Two State solution.
Come on Peter, not such a hard issue to respond to.
Either you are with it or you and Trump are of the same mind.
What’s it to be?
I look forward to Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis all committing to a peaceful two state ‘solution’ and taking measures towards achieving that. Please let me know when that has happened.
6 News Australia@6NewsAU
Western Australian MP Ben Dawkins has legally changed his name to “Aussie Trump”, which is now shown on the state parliament website
Trump posted a document showing his new name as “Austin Letts Trump”
He currently serves in the Legislative Council as an independent, having briefly been a One Nation member in 2024.
I note from the AFR, that their lead writer on international affairs, Hewett, has a highly critical piece on Trumps “take over” of Gaza.
When even the LNP friendly press is having its doubts where does this leave Dutton?
Nowhere to hide I guess.
This time I doubt he will be able to get away with …..”We will tell you after the election” gimmick.
Meanwhile, perhaps some of the interested parties here could provide their own ideas on what might constitute realistic ways and means of achieving a stable, workable, and peaceful two state solution?
Douglas & Milko at 6.52 pm
You are correct with your quote source. Marx began his 18th Brumaire with that observation, saying Hegel had noted the recurrence, but not the shift from tragedy to farce. See:
https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/The_Eighteenth_Brumaire_of_Louis_Bonapar/tX-vEDG8504C?hl=en&gbpv=1
Then there were some profound observations about structural constraints in the next para:
“Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under self-selected circumstances, but under circumstances existing already, given and transmitted from the past. The tradition of all dead generations weighs like a nightmare on the brains of the living. And just as they seem to be occupied with revolutionizing themselves and things, creating something that did not exist before, precisely in such epochs of revolutionary crisis they anxiously conjure up the spirits of the past to their service, borrowing from them names, battle slogans, and costumes in order to present this new scene in world history in time-honored disguise and borrowed language.”
https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/download/pdf/18th-Brumaire.pdf
Fargo61
Bit confused about your post.
Do we take it that a military involvement by the US in Gaza is “good” but all others “bad”?
Trump has bagged the continuous wars the US has been involved in as far as Iraq and Afghanistan are concerned and has pledged he will “learn from history” these were a mistake.
The irony is he going to do the same thing himself.
That is, engage and also not “learn from history”.
So WA poll coming and Albo waiting on the RB to drop interest rates before pressing the boom button. Now it gets interesting Dutton gifts Albo a scare campaign on post election spending cuts he won’t say where and wastes 2 question times trying to get albo to talk about the caravan terrorist threat….Sydney West seats in mind no doubt. Let the games begin.
pied pipersays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:29 pm
Sportsbet election betting this week.
Labor to win out from $2.20 to $2.50
Libs into $1.57 from $1.66
Still got a few more months of own goals from the fed Labor government.
==================================================
I hope you are not a share market trader PP. As you appear to be very vulnerable for falling for the “pump and dump”.
In a betting market. This can be done while there is not much money yet in the market. So for election, well before it is called and most people aren’t thinking about it yet. So a person or syndicate puts a fair bit of money on the side they believe will lose. To push the odds out as far as possible on their selected winners. As there is not much money going into market at that time. There bets can influence the odds to quite an extent. Once the odds of the their real target gets fairly juicy because of this. They then quickly place a huge amount of money on the very good odds they just have created. Which is the equivalent of a share market “pump and dump”.
Boerwar says Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 9:00 pm
A few things to note about Trump (I’m trying to make a list):
. He has very little curiosity
. He thinks he’s special and better than everyone else
– but like other narcissists deep down he’s insecure
. It’s difficult to tell him anything he doesn’t want to hear
. He’s not going to read his briefings
. His main source of information is Fox News
. He often goes by his gut
. His instincts, outside of the media, are often wrong, but not always
– his reaction to Iran shooting down a US drone in his first presidency was proportionate despite the advise he was receiving
. He’s not as extreme as many here believe, although he’s surrounded himself with extremists
– he still wants to be popular and will abandon policies if they significantly threaten that
. He thinks it’s all about winners and losers (blame his father for that)
– he hates the thought that he’s being ripped off
. He has an innate ability to play the media
. Impression is more important than substance
. He’s a bully
– but he’s happy if it appears he won even if nothing of significance happened
. He’s racist
. He’s selecting his cabinet based on how they appear on Fox News (don’t be too ugly, sound tough, be critical of his predecessors)
. Personal relationships count
. National relationships and shared history don’t
. He thinks the rules don’t apply to him
. He has no sense of humour whatsoever, just that stupid inane smirk (credit Steve Davis)
Cripes, Trump’s been carrying on like some weird cross between Nero and LJ Hooker.
Fargo61 @ #1531 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 9:18 pm
Unfortunately I don’t think there is any. A two-state-solution is about as likely to happen as Hitler giving up Danzig in 1941 at the moment.
Also there’s very little Australia of all countries could actually do to change things. Events that nobody can currently predict have to play out one way or another.
All we can really do at the moment is say words and I hope that somehow we keep our independence and honour in the eyes of history.
Trump is sending flyby piper to be special envoy to the Gaza strip. Hes looking for a few cultists to tell them they have to leave to see what reaction they get.
Kirsdarke @ #1522 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 9:05 pm
Trump has given them a permission slip to be the hate-motivated bigots and racists they always were but used to keep behind closed doors.
bc
He has no sense of humour whatsoever, just that stupid inane smirk.
Kirsdarke says Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 9:01 pm
Remember all the people arguing that the Democrats should remove the filibuster so they could pass legislation that might not get through anyway? I wonder how many are now of a different opinion?
Been Theresays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:58 pm
Why haven’t the media grilled Dutton on his thoughts about Trumps Gaza takeover as per Albanese today?
Is it because he is in hiding, or getting a soft ride from the Murdochcracy as usual?
===================================================
Dutton is to gutless to tell the media himself. Sent the LNP’s equivalent of a diversity hire, the one that supported the Voice. To tell the media that the LNP still believes in a two state solution.
So all the LNP stooges, currently posting on how bad or doomed to utter failure is the two state solution. You can stand down now. As Dutton sent ones of his lesser spokespeople to reiterate the LNP’s ongoing support for the two state solution. Thus LNP policy Armaggedon has been averted and standard LNP policy will now resume.
Lefty_e @ #1536 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 9:32 pm
😆 😆 😆
. He’s selecting his cabinet based on how they appear on Fox News (don’t be too ugly, sound tough, be critical of his predecessors)
He’s actually copying the Berlusconi model of choosing telegenic people to be his Secretaries and spokespeople.
Trump’s idea of a a Riviera on the coast of the Mediterranean layered with beachside condominiums with waterfront views for wealthy tourists and Israelis is brilliant except for the suicide bombings that will be going on forever.
Sky News host Rowan Dean says he was “thrilled” to hear Donald Trump’s plan to take over Gaza.
Another complete cultist numpty that thinks that Trump will follow through on his brainfart.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 9:43 pm
. He’s selecting his cabinet based on how they appear on Fox News (don’t be too ugly, sound tough, be critical of his predecessors)
He’s actually copying the Berlusconi model of choosing telegenic people to be his Secretaries and spokespeople.
=======================================================
If only Stormy Daniels had toed the line. She could be in charge of homeland security now.
Tim O’Brien on Trump’s Gaza proposal:
“It’s not an M&A deal!”
https://youtu.be/JGt3s0n9d8k?si=pMIZKZjmfcU5BJeh
Entropy @ #1547 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 9:46 pm
The way he turns over staff she should just wait for the call.