The campaign for the Western Australian election on March 8 formally commences this week with the issuing of the writs, there are two interesting Victorian state by-elections on Saturday (more on one of them below), and there will shortly be a New South Wales state by-election to contend with in Port Macquarie following retirement announcement from Nationals-turned-Liberal member Leslie Williams. That’s to say nothing of the small matter of a looming federal election, for which April 12 is generally considered the most likely date, particularly after last week’s inflation numbers shortened the odds on an interest rate cut later this month.
Also of note:
• The Financial Review this week had polling data for the 18-to-34 cohort broken down by gender, combined from Freshwater Strategy’s monthly polling in November, December and January. Presumably inspired by the stark divide in voting and ideology that’s opened up between young men and women in the United States, the results find the phenomenon to be relatively subdued here: the big difference was that support for the Greens was at 32% among young women and 20% among young men, with both major parties scoring higher among men (Labor 36%, Coalition 32%) than women (Labor 32%, Coalition 25%). Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group calculates two-party Labor leads of 67-33 among the women and 59-41 among the men. Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 58-27 among the women and 55-37 among the men, but both leaders scored much worse among women than men on net approval.
• 7News has a new election prediction model, in which political science academics Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo were involved. Mansillo was also involved in The Guardian’s tracker, but this one is quite different: whereas The Guardian’s model goes far beyond any poll result in crediting the Coalition with a commanding 53.1-46.9 lead, the 7News model has it at 51-49. Mansillo is quoted saying the mode leans just slightly in favour of Labor forming government because of an inefficiently distributed Coalition swing, leaving them set to run up margins in already safe rural and regional seats.
• Labor’s Stephen Jones announced last week that he will not seek re-election in his Illawarra region seat of Whitlam. Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reports the only known contender for Labor preselection is Keely O’Brien, general manger of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers. However, O’Brien is of the Right and the consensus appears to be that the Right will not formally oppose the national executive ratifying the nominee of Jones’s own Left faction. The report further relates that an informal deal reserves Whitlam to the Left and the state seat of Shoalhaven to the Right, but some consider the Right is owed a seat after Anthony Albanese imposed Ashvini Ambihaipahar of the Left in Barton.
• The South Australian Liberal Party has chosen Leah Blyth, education executive and state party president, to fill the Senate vacancy created by Simon Birmingham’s retirement, replacing a moderate with a conservative. Brad Crouch of The Advertiser reports Blyth won the party ballot with 119 votes to 71 for lawyer Sam Hooper and 11 for Adelaide councillor Henry Davis. As Birmingham was re-elected in 2022, Blyth will not be required to contest the coming election.
• A party vote to disendorse Jacob Vadakkedathu as the Liberals’ Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate over branch stacking allegations was defeated on Saturday. X account Preselection Updates relates the margin was 109 votes to 74.
• Patrick Durkin of the Financial Review (no link available at present) reports Labor polling shows Saturday’s by-election in Werribee “could be as close as 48-52” in favour of the government, suggesting a 9% Liberal swing. However, Liberals “denied the race was that close” and said a 5% swing would be a good result. Chip Le Grand of The Age also cites a Liberal source talking down the party’s chances by citing a “missed opportunity” to win over the local Indian community by preselecting local businessman Rajan Chopra, instead choosing 63-year-old real estate agent Steve Murphy.
Is the Stan Kelly cartoon some sort of puzzle:
Spot the 10 offensive images
Reminder: the Antoinette Lattouf v ABC hearing is being streamed from the Federal Court.
https://www.youtube.com/live/a8RorBeAiN8
Keating continues to show our current foreign and defence policy makers as fools out of their depth.
https://youtu.be/M9A6KblAle8?si=NYZSOjhTx3pulY_e
In Conversation with David Frum: Trump’s predatory foreign policy
A new wave of economic nationalism has swept across Canada as Donald Trump’s tariffs inspire anger but also a patriotic campaign to “Buy Canadian”. “Made in Canada” signs have popped up in grocery stores, lists of Canadian alternatives to US products are being circulated and comedians are devoting skits on national television to how best to avoid American consumer goods.
Liam Mooney and his partner Emma Cochrane, founders of an Ottawa-based design and strategic communications firm, have noticed a jump in sales for their newly launched fashion statement — a hat emblazoned with “Canada Is Not for Sale”. “It’s been incredible, we’ve seen a spike in sales since the tariff announcement on Saturday,” Mooney said. “It went from a concept to viral after Ontario Premier Doug Ford wore it to a meeting.” Mooney said Canadians were “angry about the disrespect” from the new US administration. The hat was a response to Trump’s tariff threats and suggestions that the country should become the 51st US state.
https://www.ft.com/content/3f8985c4-fbad-42f4-b91b-2ddb12c6c54d
‘But which shed? The Putin supporting the White Nazi Supremacists shed? Or the Iran supporting the Muslim agitators and destabilisers shed?’
Or, heaven forbid, the most obvious one.
Thanks for the heads up AE I missed that one.
Mundo’s wife often says similar things about Mundo.
So cruel.
Mundo can take it.
Mundo doesn’t mind a bit of c@t-rough.
‘Geoffrey Epstein @ #64 Monday, February 3rd, 2025 – 10:23 am
‘Foreign Actors and Criminals Rather than Local Protesters Are Likely Behind Antisemitic Attacks’:
If you can’t see what’s going on here then you’re not the sharpest tool in the shed’
============================
1. Mr Bowe has asked us to cease and desist on this topic on account of one particular strand evolving into a shark jumping fest.
2. I don’t know what is happening here. At all. There is not enough evidence. My view is that there well may be multiple things happening here.
3. I deplored, and continue to deplore, the efforts by Dutton and Bandt to weaponize ME communalist hatreds in Australia and the observable consequences thereof – which include sharp rises in terrible experiences for both Australian jews and Australian muslims.
4. Various groups within the jewish and islamic communities are active political players – often with little or no attempt at balance or nuance.
5. The DG ASIO. Repeatedly. Called on Dutton and Bandt, wtte, to STFU.
6. I commend the Albanese Government for its efforts to put a lid on all of the above.
7. I note that the Greens, via Shoebridge, are belatedly doing a bit of a more comprehensive, balanced approach.
8. I note that Dutton remains intent on stoking communalist hatreds to the max.
9. I am a very long term poster or posts which condemn anti-semitism and islamophobia.
”
Mostly Interestedsays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 11:18 am
In regard to Trumps Xeet (?) stating Canada should become the 51st state of the US, would that count as an actual declaration of war, not a trade war which is already on, but a territorial war? Yes probably tongue in cheek, but still a suggestion a county cedes its sovereignty certainly crosses a diplomatic line
”
Atlast some one seeing Trump post for what it is.
Ven @ #93 Monday, February 3rd, 2025 – 11:09 am
The writer of this missed one option (at least)
You can be born with some or all cells missing an x chromosome.
Female but it causes a lot of medical issues. Called Turners Syndrome.
FFS !
C@tmommasays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 11:06 am
Entropy, I heard that the Blackhawk night security exercises were on behalf of Trump.
===============================================
I heard that too. Supposedly “Continuity of Government Operations” are no training missions. That is just the spin. Trump requires them to have a certain number of helicopters at the ready at all times. So he can been whisked away, in the shortest time, should any threat to him occur. So they are flying around the White house region of Washington constantly. To be on the ready for such a threat and the corresponding response.
President Trump says the US will halt all funding to South Africa because of its ‘treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY’.
Entropy’s efforts to blame Trump for the place crash are themselves very Trumpian. He could get a job at the White House I believe.
Holdenhillbilly at 11.48am, I haven’t seen any other reference to that so perhaps Trump is copying Dutton for a change, remembering Duttons claim that we should offer white South African farmers refugee status, following which, the white farmers wondered what the bloody hell he was on about.
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 11:48 am
President Trump says the US will halt all funding to South Africa because of its ‘treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY’.’
====================
Trump has halted all aid funding to anyone for three months. Already. He is now halting all funding to South Africa TWICE.
Nyah! Nyah! Nyah!
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 11:39 am
Don’t you ever tire of pissing into the wind ?
Oakeshott Country @ #NaN Monday, February 3rd, 2025 – 11:23 am
OK. Maybe it is actually a satire on RWNJ. “Stan Kelly” is a pen name of the cartoonist is Ward Sutton.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ward_Sutton
We can only hope that the MAGA crowd will eventually wake up from their stupor.
The strategy has been to convince the “white” class, that even though things aren’t great for them, they are lucky and special to be white. And for men in particular, lucky they are male and not female. Cos females on some level are also a problem for them to retain their superior status.
In fact, the evil piece of crap that is the orange menace and his fellow travellers care for no one.
In regard to Trumps Xeet (?) stating Canada should become the 51st state of the US?????
That statement alone shows something is wrong with his head, it’s not logical or possible !.
C@tmommasays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 11:21 am
EmmaM @ #62 Monday, February 3rd, 2025 – 10:17 am
I do wish that posters would find a more suitable insult for people rather than those that denigrate women. To use being like a female (e.g. girly man) as an insult is much more of an affront to women (and girls) than it is to those being targeted.
Sorry, but I thought the cultural nod to Arnold Schwarzenegger wouldn’t be taken literally, simply figuratively.
===============================================
I would of gone with Darius Horsham and pleaded the comedy clause.
goll
Yes, in 2013, when I stopped voting Labor.
davesays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 11:50 am
Entropy’s efforts to blame Trump for the place crash are themselves very Trumpian. He could get a job at the White House I believe.
=====================================================
Are you calling me a privileged white male?
As Trump doesn’t do DEI hires.
Victoriasays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 12:06 pm
We can only hope that the MAGA version in Australia wake up.
They have track record of disconnect and as unimaginable as it did seem are prepared to flirt with the ridiculous again.
Thank goodness for the Teals and Greens and the part they can play.
(Beware of overreach!)
The one thing that will influence Trump with those tariffs is wall street and the share markets. We all know he measures his own success on how high the market indexes go so would be a bit dumb to crash the markets – unless you decided to short sell a lot of stock before the announcement.
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 12:10 pm
goll
It and how did that work out Rex ?
Dr Fumbles Mcstupidsays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 12:19 pm
===================================================
To bad Trump billionaires can’t make a killing on a market in free fall. Oh wait!
“Hedge funds are making unprecedented multi-billion-dollar bets against the US stock market, signalling expectations of a devastating crash that could wreak havoc on retirement savings across America.”
https://www.gbnews.com/money/pension-stock-market-crash-trump
To bad nobody foresaw this occurring. Oh wait they did that too.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anthony-scaramucci-predicts-market-crash-150058624.html
Local downstream lithium producers soon to be prevented from parachuting in Chinese workers and hardware.
WA’s struggling lithium hydroxide producers are on the verge of being dealt another major blow with China clamping down on specialised technicians and equipment leaving its borders.
Adrian Rauso
Western Australian now.
China despite failed Albanese fed labor government selling out to it still trash Australia as they know Federal labor is weak..
goll
I sleep very well at night.
The orange menace has unequivocally stated that Canada needs to be the 51st state.
He is attempting a hostile take over. Canada is saying f@@k off.
Who the heck is going to stand up in the USA?
I’m looking at congress, senate and the actual citizens of the USA.
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 12:30 pm
goll
I sleep very well at night.
==================================================
So you have that in common with Murdoch. Whose into computer health monitoring of his lifestyle balance, including sleeping now.
“This is a bracelet that keeps track of how I sleep, move and eat – transmitting that information to the cloud,” he said while perfectly executing an all too brief show-and-tell.
“It allows me to track and maintain my health much better. It allows my family and I to know more about one another’s health too, which means it encourages more personal and social responsibility – instead of just running to the doctor when we don’t feel well.”
https://www.smh.com.au/technology/rupert-murdoch-tracking-his-own-movements-with-wearable-computing-20131101-2wqcb.html
The lying pied has been looking at the West Australian’s online headlines again.
We don’t need Chinese technicians to produce lithium hydroxide Pied, there is already a glut.
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/chinese-technicians-parachuted-in-to-fix-ailing-wa-lithium-plant-20240227-p5f85w
pied pipersays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 12:30 pm
China despite failed Albanese fed labor government selling out to it still trash Australia as they know Federal labor is weak.
______________________
Get some sleep (or reboot your text generation model).
I am more than pissed off with Microsoft which has just informed me that my charge for using Microsoft 365 has been suddenly increased by about 40%!
Its publicity states that the extra charges is because of the AI which is now embedded into the suite and several of its programs.
There is no way to say that I’m not interested in the AI stuff and its additional charge.
Victoria says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 12:35 pm
The orange menace has unequivocally stated that Canada needs to be the 51st state.
He is attempting a hostile take over. Canada is saying f@@k off.
______________________
This is what happens when you turn a country into a corporation with a failed CEO at the helm turning everything in a ‘deal’
The only upside to the orange menace going this far, is that he has made the world his enemy.
He had better watch his back.
Bizzcansays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 12:45 pm
pied pipersays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 12:30 pm
China despite failed Albanese fed labor government selling out to it still trash Australia as they know Federal labor is weak.
______________________
Get some sleep (or reboot your text generation model).
=====================================================
I fear when the LNP developed this AI bot. They told it to deliver its messages in the style of Matt Canavan. AI being AI, it took it to literally. So it also delivered its messages, at the intellectual level of Canavan as well.
Entropy says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 12:41 pm
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 12:30 pm
goll
I sleep very well at night.
==================================================
So you have that in common with Murdoch. Whose into computer health monitoring of his lifestyle balance, including sleeping now.
“This is a bracelet that keeps track of how I sleep, move and eat – transmitting that information to the cloud,” he said while perfectly executing an all too brief show-and-tell.
“It allows me to track and maintain my health much better. It allows my family and I to know more about one another’s health too, which means it encourages more personal and social responsibility – instead of just running to the doctor when we don’t feel well.”
https://www.smh.com.au/technology/rupert-murdoch-tracking-his-own-movements-with-wearable-computing-20131101-2wqcb.html
_______________________________
Too bad the family didn’t go for the upgrade model where they can remote access it like an out of control Teslar and shut him down.
“I am more than pissed off with Microsoft which has just informed me that my charge for using Microsoft 365 has been suddenly increased by about 40%!”
I use LibreOffice; it does everything I need – without the Microsoft tax:
https://www.libreoffice.org/
The LNP’s attempt’s to produce an AI Barnaby chat bot. Have hit serious engineering problems though. As nobody as yet, has been able to engineer a solution, allowing an AI CPU unit to operate, while suspended in pure malt whisky.
BK
I use Apache Open Office. Its free.
The various components are: Writer (a word processor, equivalent to Microsoft Word), Calc (a spreadsheet program, equivalent to Microsoft Excel), Impress (a presentation package, similar to Microsoft PowerPoint), Base (a database program, equivalent to Microsoft Access), Draw (a vector graphics editor, similar to the drawing functions within Microsoft Office) and Math (a mathematical equation platform, similar to Microsoft Equation Editor.
“FOX NEWS’ list of goods affected by Trump’s tariffs: Crude oil, Beer and alcohol, Lumber, Steel, Shoes, Avocados, Maple syrup, Ground beef, Cherry tomatoes, Sugar, Bananas, Nuts, Cooking oil, Squash, Cucumbers, Strawberries, Pineapples, Tonka trucks and toys, BMW, Audi, Nissan, Mazda & Ford.”
Socrates, get yourself a version of Office 2016 . Sure you lose cloud connectivity but it’s the last version before they switched to the technofeudal model of paying rent for something you should own. And it is still very good.
pied piper,
Peter Dutton has softened his stance towards China, or is ‘selling out’ to them, as you colloquially put it about Labor.
What ya gonna do and say about that?
Rhetorical question.
Answer: *crickets*
Most popular beer in America?
Mexican. 😐
Country shooting itself in the foot?
America
It will be interesting to see what the global appetite for tourism to the US becomes.
Victoriasays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 8:25 am
Another very hot day in Melbourne town.
Hot weather is overrated. Sigh…….
=================================================
Also remember to slip, slop. slap, if out in the sun. As to much sun, could be detrimental to your employment opportunities, under a Dutton Government.
I can see Canberra Department buildings, having a melanin index scanner, next to the card swipes under Dutton. Which if you fail a robot arm comes out of the wall and pushes you down the newly installed steps, situated where the wheelchair access ramps use to be.
Dow Jones futures down 600 pts.
Go easy.
Poor fella often shows signs of a deep thinking socially aware and strong active minded Victorian, but is stuck up there in the intellectually sterile quagmire of corrupt NSW politics surrounded by knuckledraggers. Should’ve escaped and move south long ago and thrived. Have some empathy, dave.