The campaign for the Western Australian election on March 8 formally commences this week with the issuing of the writs, there are two interesting Victorian state by-elections on Saturday (more on one of them below), and there will shortly be a New South Wales state by-election to contend with in Port Macquarie following retirement announcement from Nationals-turned-Liberal member Leslie Williams. That’s to say nothing of the small matter of a looming federal election, for which April 12 is generally considered the most likely date, particularly after last week’s inflation numbers shortened the odds on an interest rate cut later this month.
Also of note:
• The Financial Review this week had polling data for the 18-to-34 cohort broken down by gender, combined from Freshwater Strategy’s monthly polling in November, December and January. Presumably inspired by the stark divide in voting and ideology that’s opened up between young men and women in the United States, the results find the phenomenon to be relatively subdued here: the big difference was that support for the Greens was at 32% among young women and 20% among young men, with both major parties scoring higher among men (Labor 36%, Coalition 32%) than women (Labor 32%, Coalition 25%). Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group calculates two-party Labor leads of 67-33 among the women and 59-41 among the men. Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 58-27 among the women and 55-37 among the men, but both leaders scored much worse among women than men on net approval.
• 7News has a new election prediction model, in which political science academics Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo were involved. Mansillo was also involved in The Guardian’s tracker, but this one is quite different: whereas The Guardian’s model goes far beyond any poll result in crediting the Coalition with a commanding 53.1-46.9 lead, the 7News model has it at 51-49. Mansillo is quoted saying the mode leans just slightly in favour of Labor forming government because of an inefficiently distributed Coalition swing, leaving them set to run up margins in already safe rural and regional seats.
• Labor’s Stephen Jones announced last week that he will not seek re-election in his Illawarra region seat of Whitlam. Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reports the only known contender for Labor preselection is Keely O’Brien, general manger of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers. However, O’Brien is of the Right and the consensus appears to be that the Right will not formally oppose the national executive ratifying the nominee of Jones’s own Left faction. The report further relates that an informal deal reserves Whitlam to the Left and the state seat of Shoalhaven to the Right, but some consider the Right is owed a seat after Anthony Albanese imposed Ashvini Ambihaipahar of the Left in Barton.
• The South Australian Liberal Party has chosen Leah Blyth, education executive and state party president, to fill the Senate vacancy created by Simon Birmingham’s retirement, replacing a moderate with a conservative. Brad Crouch of The Advertiser reports Blyth won the party ballot with 119 votes to 71 for lawyer Sam Hooper and 11 for Adelaide councillor Henry Davis. As Birmingham was re-elected in 2022, Blyth will not be required to contest the coming election.
• A party vote to disendorse Jacob Vadakkedathu as the Liberals’ Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate over branch stacking allegations was defeated on Saturday. X account Preselection Updates relates the margin was 109 votes to 74.
• Patrick Durkin of the Financial Review (no link available at present) reports Labor polling shows Saturday’s by-election in Werribee “could be as close as 48-52” in favour of the government, suggesting a 9% Liberal swing. However, Liberals “denied the race was that close” and said a 5% swing would be a good result. Chip Le Grand of The Age also cites a Liberal source talking down the party’s chances by citing a “missed opportunity” to win over the local Indian community by preselecting local businessman Rajan Chopra, instead choosing 63-year-old real estate agent Steve Murphy.
Peter C @ 3.52 pm
I don’t want to make you regret your last paragraph, not yet anyway 😀
Jesus Boer, do you intentionally self parody or is that just a natural talent of yours……?
Accepting donations from an individual who gambles isin NO WAY comparable from taking donations from the gambling industry, not to mention accepting numerous gifts and hospitality from that same industry, and then refusing to take action on gambling advertising that was supported by a bipartisan committee, and has the support of the majority of the population if you believe the polling
But of course in BW land Albo and Michelle Rowland have shown complete integrity on gambling and it’s the greens who have questions to answer
I noticed Zoe Daniel gave Albo a huge serve over this issue as well as she nicely called him a spineless and visionless waste of space (my words, hers were much nicer)
Question BW – does it get tiring defending the indefensible day in day out?
Pauline Hanson sits in our parliament
What did she wear into a Chamber – and what are her views on Asian immigration?
So are her views, which see her in the Australian parliament, antisemitism?
And Page girl, your words
Enough said
Go back to Vietnam with your dysfunctional family (to quote your words)
So a donation from a person who drinks alcohol would be ‘alcohol money’? And I suppose a donation from a smoker would be ‘tobacco money’?
Boer
The Greens want action on gambling advertising. Labor does not. Whoever makes donations is irrelevant…
If there is ever an issue to oppose your mob, I’m afraid this is it – and you should do so!
The relationship between the political class and and the media class is pretty similar throughout the western world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJgvZtHJN6U&ab_channel=SecularTalk
Only because I haven’t seen it for years and came across it. A South Korean News summary of the 2010 election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ_s6V1Kv6A
OK, got my head around it now. The 12% is the total increase in federal funding 24-25 to 25-26. But about 7% was already negotiated and in the budget. The $1.7 billion is an additional one off payment, which works out actually as about 5.15% of total federal contribution to public hospitals. I would agree the PMs language is misleading as is the official statement.
https://www.pm.gov.au/media/albanese-labor-government-building-australias-future-more-money-public-hospital-reform
Sceptic says Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 1:25 pm
But I’m scared of moving to cash because of what Trump’s policies might do to inflation!
This should be called out by our political leaders.
Ante Meridiansays:Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 4:08 pm
So a donation from a person who drinks alcohol would be ‘alcohol money’? And I suppose a donation from a smoker would be ‘tobacco money’?
+1
Just ban their shit adds, just get it done Albo.
I am interested to know how they have calculated the different rates of the funding increase for the different states. It’s not explained in the statement, and I suspect it partially been calculated around the fuck up with GST revenue and they talk about it being tied to NDIS reform. But I don’t think they can be the only factors.
Rex Douglas @ #1309 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 3:15 pm
Indeed, but the likes of lattouf, along with Lalor clearly must be punished for failing to tow the approved pro-israel line tacitly endorsed by the government.
pageboi
Your starting point is always Labor bad; Greens good.
Always.
The other day you were trying to convince us all that Labor had done only one left thing: the Voice. Coincidentally you chose one that had failed.
You were outed on that with a range of left initiative undertaken by Labor.
Then you trying to explain to us how Albanese lacks the balls to make a running commentary on every Trump utterance, contradiction and bombast.
Now you are trying to explain that the Greens taking money from a gambler is somehow or other pure.
We are are not talking cents here.
I suggest you open your mind, get some balance, and say some nice things about Labor for a change.
Albanese has run a sound progressive government in the most difficult of times.
Give him some credit for that.
As for the Greens, do stop pretending that they negotiate in good faith. They keep switching their policy issues around. Red lines disappear and reappear. They have had three policy stands on gambling advertising in three days.
They are full of bombast and bluster. In three years, they have achieved fuck all except blocking some useful progressive reforms.
If you want some cred, give the Greens some curry for that.
‘The Wombat says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 4:20 pm
I am interested to know how they have calculated the different rates of the funding increase for the different states. It’s not explained in the statement, and I suspect it partially been calculated around the fuck up with GST revenue. But that can’t be the only factor.’
======================
Yep. 30% for the NT is interesting.
centre wants action on gambling advertising. Which is why he supports Dutton who increased gambling advertising.
How it started…
How it’s going…
I am hoping part of this may be new calculations around remoteness, Boer. The remoteness funding model model is very broken, and the NT has certainly been done very badly out of these errors in the models. 30% for the NT sounds about about right. They have been dreadfully underfunded.
For anyone interested in the problem, this is an excellent read by the National Rural Health Alliance:
https://www.ruralhealth.org.au/document/evidence-base-additional-investment-rural-health-australia
Netanyahu should have been arrested today at the WH.
The Wombat @ #1311 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 4:20 pm
Shouldn’t it be based on Activity Based Funding?
(No seriously, stop laughing)
The Wombat @ #1317 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 4:25 pm
There would also be a block funding component for hospitals too small to give accurate activity figures.
Many people voted for Trump believing he would end the wars. Does taking over a territory governed by a terrorist group lead to less war? Or more war?
The Labor Party is heading for defeat at the 2025 election.
This government has been there before, they were heading for defeat with the Voice referendum, yet did nothing. With the Voice referendum, Albo could have wedged Dutton/Nationals by changing the question to solely recognise first nations peoples in the constitution – which would’ve guaranteed a win.
It’s not too late for Albo to win the election.
Albo could make a serious impact on the polls immediately by showing strength and banning gambling advertising.
Albo needs to grow a pair of big marbles. But it won’t happen!
Oakeshot, Boer, There may be some block funding changes, but what I’m hoping is that we may be seeing some changes in ABF calculations by remoteness. I know there was a pitch from the state governments to Mark Butler about 9 months ago arguing that the current funding model doesn’t accurately cover the increased costs of health service delivery with increasing remoteness. Perhaps the bigger issue is that the ARIA+ statistical model of remoteness is profoundly broken. The NT particularly has been completely fucked over by these errors.
‘The Wombat says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 4:25 pm
I am hoping part of this may be new calculations around remoteness, Boer. The remoteness funding model model is very broken, and the NT has certainly been done very badly out of these errors in the models. 30% for the NT sounds about about right. They have been dreadfully underfunded.
For anyone interested in the problem, this is an excellent read by the National Rural Health Alliance:
https://www.ruralhealth.org.au/document/evidence-base-additional-investment-rural-health-australia‘
========================
Yep.
It might also be that whitefellas are finally starting to learn first hand and the hard way that Howard’s cutting of remote funding inevitably led to the situation in Alice Springs today. Howard forced many Indigenous communities to move into centres like Alice Springs.
I foreshadowed the inevitable consequences at the time. They were that obvious. They are terrible.
Providing reliable health services in remote communities is one small step in addressing the situation in Alice Springs.
Centre says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 4:31 pm
The Liberal Party is heading for defeat at the 2025 election.
Sad for you, but true.
Confessions @ #1321 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 4:29 pm
I keep wondering if the country’s who have been cucked by Trump & Netanyahu will do anything?
So far, Iran has been struck dumb. Egypt has gone strangely silent and Jordan has just had all of its USAID cut off. What can they do?
How it started…
How it’s going…
Wombat, BW
The underlying increase excluding the 1.7B is calculated on the National Health Reform Agreement 2020-25 which has been extended for another year and is based on combined activity based funding and block funding,
It appears the new government will be given the task of negotiating the next agreement with the states.
(There is a much easier approach possible – just dust of Option C of the Bennett Committee
C@t:
Well, Saudi is pushing back.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/02/05/trump-gaza-control-palestinian-displacement-israel/
I will be dusting off option C of the Bennett report tonight then Oakeshott. (I have no idea what it even is at the moment.)
So now Trump the Peacemaker is threatening to obliterate Iran.
How dare Albanese lack the balls not to straight away call Trump and tell him personally not to be so fucking insane!
I give up boer, either you’re actually a complete idiot or a troll. Taking a donation from an individual who chooses to gamble, and then having a principled stance on gambling advertising is not the same as the ALPs craven capitulation to vested interests in the gambling lobby, it’s sheer whataboutery and was frankly beneath minister Rowland in question time, but then it should be no surprise that she had to engage in it when her own position is basically untenable
I have actually praised this government when it’s been deserved, and for the umpteenth time I’m closer to the independents than the greens, but yes I’m often very critical of Albo and his government, because it’s a pretty crap government!
When your reelection pitch boils down to ‘things will get better, trust us’ and ‘imagine how much worse the other mob would be’ It’s not really inspiring, is it?
Now of course you won’t do this because it might threaten your fragile worldview and co cognitive dissonance about the ALP, but I would urge you to watch Zoe Daniel at the press club today. There’s vision, there’s integrity, there is your chance to drive meaningful progressive change in this country. In her 5 key wishes Zoe managed to outline a much better vision for the country than the focus group tested drivel the ALP spouts, or the grievance fuelled populist firehouse of lies and shite served up by the LNP
The Wombat @ #1307 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 4:13 pm
Let’s wait and see if Dutton backs it? Because when he was the Worst Health Minister in the World, he cut $50 Billion from the Health budget. A bald leopard doesn’t change its spots.
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 4:37 pm
Wombat, BW
The underlying increase excluding the 1.7B is calculated on the National Health Reform Agreement 2020-25 which has been extended for another year and is based on combined activity based funding and block funding,
It appears the new government will be given the task of negotiating the next agreement with the states.
(There is a much easier approach possible – just dust of Option C of the Bennett Committee’
========================
Yep. That was what Butler was saying during the presser. Butler also mentioned that tie in of the states delivering on the NDIS reforms.
I assume that cost shifting is being controlled as part of the overall negotiation outcomes.
Were I the Feds I would be right onto that.
The Wombat @ #1325 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 4:33 pm
Remoteness and indigeneity are already included in the ABF formula – I don’t think it could change in this agreement but I agree it should be increased in the next one.
Centre,
If Labor wins the election, will you promise not to come to the PB celebration lunch? Now THAT’S what I call a bet.
Once upon a time – and not so long ago – we could take the piss out of the US for the odd-ball things that happen there – and also feel with them when 9/11 happened
No longer.
Now we have a degenerate in control, with a load of henchmen/women willing to do anything he wants.
Our local Trump supporting loonies assured us that in his last term in office the US was not involved in any kind of overseas conflict. I have never checked this out, but one thing is for certain, this will not longer be the case.
With the threat of US troops on the ground in Gaza and a report I saw saying that if he was assassinated (by someone from Iran) he has given order to annihilate Iran.
US “soft power” is about to disappear, our respect and trust of this country will go the same way and we might be a lot closer to the nuclear midnight than we would like to be.
My hope (not be be fulfilled of course) is the Trump supporters here would get on a plane, go and live south of the Mason-Dickson line and take their poisonous politics with them.
Pageboi
I agree. You should give up. Your lack of logic and balance is exposed on a daily basis.
According to you Albanese should right now have the balls to call Trump to tell him that Australia does not support his latest insanity which is threatening to obliterate Iran.
WA state election very interesting if there is a massive swing against labor then the fed Labor government will be reaching for their nappies.
Good first 12 days for trump!
C@t
I wouldn’t expect to be invited 😀
C@t
You would really bother with that?
There are a lot more reasonable LNP people around than some who turn up here.
They would be a better bet to have a pleasant lunch with – win/lose or draw at the coming election.
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 4:43 pm
The Wombat @ #1325 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 4:33 pm
Oakeshot, Boer, There may be some block funding changes, but what I’m hoping is that we may be seeing some changes in ABF calculations by remoteness.
Remoteness and indigeneity are already included in the ABF formula – I don’t think it could change in this agreement but I agree it should be increased in the next one.’
======================
The real biggie in that space is remote housing in the NT. The Albanese Government has allocated a massive amount to that. The scale is actually about right. Like everything else in the NT it will be slow and difficult to deliver. But the intent and the funding is there.
I haven’t heard that the NT Government has cut its part of that deal. It probably knows that if it is to get the Alice Springs situation under control it is going to have to enable people to move back on country. Plus it is de facto a huge boost to the NT economy.
Centre @ #1341 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 4:50 pm
Noted.
It makes me bilious to see the likes of Babet and Ley saying what a wonderful man is Trump and the things he is doing.
Oakeshott, I’m digesting Bennett.
https://doi.org/10.5694/j.1326-5377.2010.tb03611.x
Yes, I agree changes to the ABF remoteness calculations would be something for the next funding cycle. I’m perhaps being overly optimistic though that the large boost in funding to the NT signals that they may be increasing funding by remoteness. But obviously there’s other factors at play. The ACT ain’t remote and hasn’t got much in the way of an indigenous population.
Tricot,
There I am trying to give Albo advice on how to immediately boost his poll numbers – but no, not taken… PM Dutton on track.
Banning advertising on gambling is a waste of fucking time and ain’t going to win any election for anyone.
They had troops based in Afghanistan still. Trump and his shills attacked Biden for what was admittedly a clumsy withdrawal. But it was Biden who brought all the troops home.