Monday miscellany: youth polling, preselections, Werribee by-election latest (open thread)

A late vacancy arises in a safe Labor seat, expectations management sets in ahead of Saturday’s Victorian by-elections, and more besides.

The campaign for the Western Australian election on March 8 formally commences this week with the issuing of the writs, there are two interesting Victorian state by-elections on Saturday (more on one of them below), and there will shortly be a New South Wales state by-election to contend with in Port Macquarie following retirement announcement from Nationals-turned-Liberal member Leslie Williams. That’s to say nothing of the small matter of a looming federal election, for which April 12 is generally considered the most likely date, particularly after last week’s inflation numbers shortened the odds on an interest rate cut later this month.

Also of note:

• The Financial Review this week had polling data for the 18-to-34 cohort broken down by gender, combined from Freshwater Strategy’s monthly polling in November, December and January. Presumably inspired by the stark divide in voting and ideology that’s opened up between young men and women in the United States, the results find the phenomenon to be relatively subdued here: the big difference was that support for the Greens was at 32% among young women and 20% among young men, with both major parties scoring higher among men (Labor 36%, Coalition 32%) than women (Labor 32%, Coalition 25%). Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group calculates two-party Labor leads of 67-33 among the women and 59-41 among the men. Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 58-27 among the women and 55-37 among the men, but both leaders scored much worse among women than men on net approval.

• 7News has a new election prediction model, in which political science academics Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo were involved. Mansillo was also involved in The Guardian’s tracker, but this one is quite different: whereas The Guardian’s model goes far beyond any poll result in crediting the Coalition with a commanding 53.1-46.9 lead, the 7News model has it at 51-49. Mansillo is quoted saying the mode leans just slightly in favour of Labor forming government because of an inefficiently distributed Coalition swing, leaving them set to run up margins in already safe rural and regional seats.

• Labor’s Stephen Jones announced last week that he will not seek re-election in his Illawarra region seat of Whitlam. Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reports the only known contender for Labor preselection is Keely O’Brien, general manger of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers. However, O’Brien is of the Right and the consensus appears to be that the Right will not formally oppose the national executive ratifying the nominee of Jones’s own Left faction. The report further relates that an informal deal reserves Whitlam to the Left and the state seat of Shoalhaven to the Right, but some consider the Right is owed a seat after Anthony Albanese imposed Ashvini Ambihaipahar of the Left in Barton.

• The South Australian Liberal Party has chosen Leah Blyth, education executive and state party president, to fill the Senate vacancy created by Simon Birmingham’s retirement, replacing a moderate with a conservative. Brad Crouch of The Advertiser reports Blyth won the party ballot with 119 votes to 71 for lawyer Sam Hooper and 11 for Adelaide councillor Henry Davis. As Birmingham was re-elected in 2022, Blyth will not be required to contest the coming election.

• A party vote to disendorse Jacob Vadakkedathu as the Liberals’ Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate over branch stacking allegations was defeated on Saturday. X account Preselection Updates relates the margin was 109 votes to 74.

• Patrick Durkin of the Financial Review (no link available at present) reports Labor polling shows Saturday’s by-election in Werribee “could be as close as 48-52” in favour of the government, suggesting a 9% Liberal swing. However, Liberals “denied the race was that close” and said a 5% swing would be a good result. Chip Le Grand of The Age also cites a Liberal source talking down the party’s chances by citing a “missed opportunity” to win over the local Indian community by preselecting local businessman Rajan Chopra, instead choosing 63-year-old real estate agent Steve Murphy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,574 comments on “Monday miscellany: youth polling, preselections, Werribee by-election latest (open thread)”

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  1. And now to the substance.

    Foreign Minister Wong has been an exceptional:

    1. Rebalanced the relationship with China to a benefit of $20 billion a year in trade.
    2. Reversed the situation in which the Liberals and Nationals were pissfarting around while China stole a march in the South Pacific.
    3. Supported a democracy which was attacked by a dictatorship. (Ukraine).
    4. Provided moral and substantial support to the Philippines as they confronted an aggressive China in their sovereign waters.
    5. Excellent working relationship with our closest and most important neighbour.
    6. Managing an exceedingly challenging Middle East war.
    7. To date, managing our most important ally currently being managed by an insane POTUS.
    8. Bringing Australia back in from the cold on international climate initiatives.

    Wong has not triggered a single negative response.

  2. Boerwar @ #1246 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 2:29 pm

    12% increase in hospital funding by the Albanese Government.

    Let’s hear it from the all the pseudo Progressives who slag Labor on a daily basis….

    Yeah, nah.

    Dutton must be going to cut health spending. It’s in his genes.

    BW
    I don’t get the 12%
    The headline story is $1.7B added to $32.2B which seems closer to 5.3%
    I may be missing something

  3. ScromoII @ #1194 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 1:36 pm

    Can’t wait for Penny Wong to not be foreign minister anymore. She is the most incompetent person in that post since time immemorial. Not difficult to see why: she is the ultimate epitome of DEI.

    At 57 this year she will have no chance of getting a government minister position again after her party loses this election and languishes in opposition / withers away over the next decade.

    I see the racist bigot worms have crawled out of the woodwork. 😐

  4. Hey Scrol….
    Why don’t you head off to the US now and you can have a jolly time without having to wait 3,5,10 – a million years down the track?
    Trump welcomes people like you in his MAGA gang.
    You can be there to benefit from this Great America….or more likely join the suckers who actually believe Trump.
    Oh, and take with you what to appear to me your love of other extreme right-wing leaders and their potentiality to become dominated by authoritarian (Fascist?) policies.
    Why not stand for a seat yourself here in Oz? Give it a test. There is a least 5-10 votes – at least – from the group who post here.
    Maybe get Piper in as your campaign manager? He seems to have all the answer too.

  5. Yep, that’s Australia today.

    “David Milner@davemilbo.bsky.social
    It’d be so easy for Australian politicians to pass motions condemning all forms of racism – but instead they’re passing motions decrying one form race hate (anti-semitism) while tacitly supporting the colonial slaughter of Palestinians. It tells us so much about who we are.”

  6. Will Nuckleer Pete commit Australian troops to the Middle East in support of Trump’s troops

    And will Australia get its own little bit of Gaza (or will it be Trump given his penchant for renaming his conquered lands and waters?) as payment

    The Tory Grand Master saying the other day that they will reintroduce conscription now has its reason

    To send troops off to Trump (formerly Gaza) and Israel to attend ethnic cleansing

    Nuckleer Pete is already on a cleansing path in Australia we reading on here about riff raff at University etc etc so people being put in their place

    Next step will be ousting anyone not of the religious right (so believing in reincarnation, another rusted on Tory belief along with never changing their minds which is code for not having a mind)

    So Nuckleer Pete, given you said Albanese should immediately go to Israel to stand side by side with the Israel pm post October 7, troops to stand beside tue Israel pm and Trunp?

    I just hope you do not contract out the return of dead servicemen which led to bodies being lost – remember

    And I agree the comment of Usman Khawaja supporting the journalist stood down by SEN

  7. ‘Oakeshott Country says:
    Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 2:59 pm

    Boerwar @ #1254 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 2:45 pm

    OC
    Thanks. You are right.

    But I agree the article did say 12%’
    ======================
    The important thing is that Dutton has a history of wanting to cut health funding.

    He has foreshadowed cuts but not specified them.

    There is a very clear choice here for voters who value public health services.

  8. Scromo

    “ Can’t wait for Penny Wong to not be foreign minister anymore. She is the most incompetent person in that post since time immemorial. Not difficult to see why: she is the ultimate epitome of DEI.”
    ———————————————————
    Wong’s intellect is exceptional and probably generates envy or resentment from some, especially those who are much less bright than she is. So naturally she is hated within coalition ranks.

    Her efforts in restoring Australia’s relationship with China and getting sanctions removed against billions in Australian farm exports must rank as one of the best achievements of any Australian FM since the Vietnam War.

    Wong can explain how many lies Scott Morrison told about the Chinese threat to Australia in four languages.

  9. From the SMH:

    New funding to support NSW psychiatrists after mass resignations
    ByOlivia Ireland
    Federal Health Minister Mark Butler says the additional funding announced by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for public hospitals and health services will partly go to NSW hospitals and could create broader support for psychiatrists after their mass resignation.

    Last week, 206 psychiatrists submitted their resignations in an ongoing dispute over pay and conditions. Staff specialist psychiatrists want a 25 per cent one-year pay increase.

    “This will provide additional funding to the NSW government, the jurisdiction you’re talking about, to deal with wage pressure in the system,” Butler said.

    “This is one of the toughest jobs in the health system that we have. I want to see that resolved. I’m sure everyone in NSW does as well.”

    1.08pm
    $1.7 billion boost to Medicare in new funding deal
    ByOlivia Ireland
    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced $1.7 billion in funding for public hospitals and health services, an increase of 12 per cent to the federal government’s overall contribution to state-run health systems.

    Albanese told reporters in Canberra that strengthening Medicare had always been a priority for his government.

    “Today I can announce we’re delivering an additional 1.7 billion to properly fund public hospitals and health services next year,” he said.

    “This funding will be delivered to states and territories to help cut waiting lists, to reduce waiting times in emergency rooms.”

    He said the increase brings the Commonwealth contribution to a record “almost $34 billion in 2025-26”.

    “To give you some idea of what that means – in the Northern Territory, it gets the largest increase, a 30 per cent increase as a result of the fact that they need this investment,” Albanese said.

    “Right across every state and territory, this means a double-digit increase in Commonwealth funding for their public hospitals. This is absolutely essential.”

  10. Trump’s main justification for his intended ethnic cleansing of Palestinian people from Gaza was that the whole place is rubble and no one can live there now.

    So, let’s put the blame where it belongs. The whole place is now unliveable rubble because Genocide Joe supplied the thousands of bombs that Netanyahu dropped on it. Self declared Zionist Biden could have stopped the war long before Gaza was turned into rubble just by stopping the supply of bombs. But he didn’t.

    And also thanks to geriatric Joe for gift wrapping Trump and gifting him to the world. Biden claimed he would be a transitional president, who would hand over to a younger generaration. Except he didn’t. He just hung on in there, like Ginsburg, until he was a drooling fool, and gave no time for the Democrats to go through the process of finding the best candidate to run against Trump.

    If Biden’s main goal was to keep Trump out of office, he failed miserably.

    So, thanks Joe and good luck with the legacy.

  11. So Labor’s big defence of their inaction on Peta Murphy’s gambling reforms is to attack the Greens for taking donations from a person who is partial to a flutter …?

    That the best they’ve got ..?

  12. Nuckleer Pete comes to his view thru the prism of 100% support for the right wing coalition government of Israel (regardless)

    Full stop

    So when the inference that all males are perpetrators of domestic violence, when only a very small minority are despicable perpetrators, the reputation of all males being impinged upon, what of those males objecting to the blanket inference and saying such acceptance scares them?

    Will Nuckkeer Pete think up a word description akin to antisemitism to criticise those impinging the reputation of all males and inflicting damage on all males?

    Before you get to toxic masculinity (including calling others weak, straight from the Howard book)

    Nuckleer Pete is actually a marshmallow hiding behind a veneer of angry words and insults

    Ditto his supporters on this site

  13. The Greens were debating their bill on gambling in the senate earlier this morning, but it doesn’t have support from either of the major parties to go further.

    Rowland highlights that the Queensland Greens have accepted donations from a “high rolling gambler”.

    “I find it interesting that the honourable member who is a member of the Greens political party from Queensland should ask this, when the Queensland Greens have accepted over nearly half a million dollars in donations from a high rolling gambler. Despite pushing for a ban on political donations from the gambling industry.”

    Rowland won’t go to when Labor will act on banning or putting a partial ban on online gambling advertising.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/feb/05/australia-news-politics-live-deepseek-ban-federal-parliament-question-time-election-campaign-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-ntwnfb

    The grand coalition supports massively harmful exposure to gambling ads

  14. ‘Barramundi for Bosses’ from Lobster Dutton.
    Still waiting for Grange to get a guernsey.
    Only a matter of time.

    Has Dutton kicked the biggest own goal since Hewson could not calculate the GST on a cake?

  15. I caught the last 15 or so minutes of QT. I agree with the Greens in their criticism of Labor’s inaction on gambling advertising.

    How good is Albo going that I’m siding with the Greens over Labor, fair dinkum!

    Where the Greens get their donations from is completely irrelevant. The Greens are against gambling advertising. It’s like myself, I’ll place a bet if I see fit but I’m against gambling advertising.

    Labor has lost its way. Time to change the government to get back on track.

  16. If Albanese won’t pass at least a partial ban on gambling ads then he truly is a weak little coward and does not deserve to be the leader of the Labor party.

  17. ‘Democracy Sausage says:
    Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 3:43 pm

    The Labor army in here obviously thinks anti-Semitism isn’t a major issue…’
    ===================
    Anti-semitism, anti-black gangs, anti-Aboriginal and anti-muslim are all major issues in Australia.
    Dutton thinks that one form of racism is bad while he engages in other forms of racism.
    In other words, Dutton plays politics with anti-semitism.
    Disgusting.

  18. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 2:59 pm
    Boerwar @ #1254 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 2:45 pm

    OC
    Thanks. You are right.

    But I agree the article did say 12%

    *****************************************

    It’s a 12% increase in federal funding of public hospitals, but a only about 5% of total hospital funding because of the split between federal and state. The $100 billion funding figure includes both public and private hospital funding.

  19. It turns out that all along the Greens have been posturing, screaming, shouting, doing holier-than-thou while taking gambling money.
    They were playing politics with gambling.
    Shameful.

  20. Boer, go and have a lie down my friend.

    I have made many posts in the past that gambling advertising reform will NOT see the light of day.

    We’re dealing with a very seriously powerful lobby group in the horse racing industry.

    Yet there is Albo escorting his mate Vlandys, the leader of that group, to the US to meet the President to tap further into a gambling market.

    PM Vlandys throws a bone, Tennis Albo fetches.

    Are you proud Labor Luvvies…what shame!

  21. BW – Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems that the greens accepted donations from an individual who gambles. Not really the same thing as accepting donations from the gambling industry. Or has the ALP been posturing, screaming, shouting, holier than thou hypocrites in accepting donations from individuals who smoke cigarettes, or use drugs?
    Def not on to a winner here imo.

    Did you see my question about whether the alp still owns and operates pokie machines btw? Do they?

  22. And I agree Biden’s foreign policy was a disaster and overshadowed a commendable domestic record (even standing on a picket line)

    Ukraine and Israel gifted the presidency to Trump

    Biden should have rejected out of hand the incoming Ukraine president prosecuting that Ukraine join NATO – from day 1

    And Biden should have learnt from Clinton and from Obama (Obama lamenting that he should have done more over his 8 years) picking up the cudgels for a 2 State solution (from 1948 and the establishment of Israel distinct from Palestine) Instead he stood 100% behind Israel and its right wing government

    The one think I do not understand is leaders of centre left governments, Blair and Biden supporting right wing agendas

    Howard joining with Bush, yes because they are of akin political stripes

    But Blair and Bush?

    And now Biden with who he has stood alongside

    Condemned to political oblivion both of them

    And look at what they were the catalyst for – 10 years of mayhem in the UK including Brexit and now 2 weeks of Trump

    At the end, the domestic achievements of Blair and Biden have counted for ziltch given they were the catalyst for what has followed

    And Center (or should that be FRight?), you having a bet on the Federal election noting the references to prices on here, or on the Melbourne Cup? Or visited a Casino? Gambling per se is a very large industry contributing to the economy including by provision of employment

  23. ‘banquo911 says:
    Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 3:52 pm

    BW – Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems that the greens accepted donations from an individual who gambles…’
    ================
    Their single biggest donor is a gambler. Complete and utter hypocrites.

    You should have seen the look on the Greens faces in the House when they were outed during QT.

  24. The Wombat @ #1288 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 3:48 pm

    Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 2:59 pm
    Boerwar @ #1254 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 2:45 pm

    OC
    Thanks. You are right.

    But I agree the article did say 12%

    *****************************************

    It’s a 12% increase in federal funding of public hospitals, but a only about 5% of total hospital funding because of the split between federal and state. The $100 billion funding figure includes both public and private hospital funding.

    Still not getting it Wombat the AIHW figures for federal funding of public hospitals in 2022 was 31B – this package is 1.7B

    Total Public hospitals then were about 81B of which the states supplied 50B
    (Private total was 21B)

  25. The Greens can take donations from whoever they wish. They should be congratulated if anything for sticking to their principles. The Greens oppose gambling advertising.

    I will place a bet if it’s to my advantage. I’m opposed to gambling advertising (I know how the bastards operate).

    The Greens are not being hypocritical!

  26. If a politician wants stricter controls on say, the advertising of alcohol, would it make him or her a hypocrite to accept donations from someone who drinks?

  27. The lib /nats supporters can see that Dutton and the federal lib/nats are not going to improve on their 2022 federal election seats numbers by much

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