Monday miscellany: youth polling, preselections, Werribee by-election latest (open thread)

A late vacancy arises in a safe Labor seat, expectations management sets in ahead of Saturday’s Victorian by-elections, and more besides.

The campaign for the Western Australian election on March 8 formally commences this week with the issuing of the writs, there are two interesting Victorian state by-elections on Saturday (more on one of them below), and there will shortly be a New South Wales state by-election to contend with in Port Macquarie following retirement announcement from Nationals-turned-Liberal member Leslie Williams. That’s to say nothing of the small matter of a looming federal election, for which April 12 is generally considered the most likely date, particularly after last week’s inflation numbers shortened the odds on an interest rate cut later this month.

Also of note:

• The Financial Review this week had polling data for the 18-to-34 cohort broken down by gender, combined from Freshwater Strategy’s monthly polling in November, December and January. Presumably inspired by the stark divide in voting and ideology that’s opened up between young men and women in the United States, the results find the phenomenon to be relatively subdued here: the big difference was that support for the Greens was at 32% among young women and 20% among young men, with both major parties scoring higher among men (Labor 36%, Coalition 32%) than women (Labor 32%, Coalition 25%). Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group calculates two-party Labor leads of 67-33 among the women and 59-41 among the men. Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 58-27 among the women and 55-37 among the men, but both leaders scored much worse among women than men on net approval.

• 7News has a new election prediction model, in which political science academics Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo were involved. Mansillo was also involved in The Guardian’s tracker, but this one is quite different: whereas The Guardian’s model goes far beyond any poll result in crediting the Coalition with a commanding 53.1-46.9 lead, the 7News model has it at 51-49. Mansillo is quoted saying the mode leans just slightly in favour of Labor forming government because of an inefficiently distributed Coalition swing, leaving them set to run up margins in already safe rural and regional seats.

• Labor’s Stephen Jones announced last week that he will not seek re-election in his Illawarra region seat of Whitlam. Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reports the only known contender for Labor preselection is Keely O’Brien, general manger of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers. However, O’Brien is of the Right and the consensus appears to be that the Right will not formally oppose the national executive ratifying the nominee of Jones’s own Left faction. The report further relates that an informal deal reserves Whitlam to the Left and the state seat of Shoalhaven to the Right, but some consider the Right is owed a seat after Anthony Albanese imposed Ashvini Ambihaipahar of the Left in Barton.

• The South Australian Liberal Party has chosen Leah Blyth, education executive and state party president, to fill the Senate vacancy created by Simon Birmingham’s retirement, replacing a moderate with a conservative. Brad Crouch of The Advertiser reports Blyth won the party ballot with 119 votes to 71 for lawyer Sam Hooper and 11 for Adelaide councillor Henry Davis. As Birmingham was re-elected in 2022, Blyth will not be required to contest the coming election.

• A party vote to disendorse Jacob Vadakkedathu as the Liberals’ Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate over branch stacking allegations was defeated on Saturday. X account Preselection Updates relates the margin was 109 votes to 74.

• Patrick Durkin of the Financial Review (no link available at present) reports Labor polling shows Saturday’s by-election in Werribee “could be as close as 48-52” in favour of the government, suggesting a 9% Liberal swing. However, Liberals “denied the race was that close” and said a 5% swing would be a good result. Chip Le Grand of The Age also cites a Liberal source talking down the party’s chances by citing a “missed opportunity” to win over the local Indian community by preselecting local businessman Rajan Chopra, instead choosing 63-year-old real estate agent Steve Murphy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,574 comments on “Monday miscellany: youth polling, preselections, Werribee by-election latest (open thread)”

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  1. It’s just another weakness, among many, of the US constitution and system of government that the President is Commander in Chief of their military, who in theory could order them to do any crazy thing at his whim.

    It’s any wonder they have assassinations, it’s the only way they can get rid incompetent arseholes.

  2. I should declare that for this early spruiking of this incredible project I am getting 20% off accommodation at the Trump Hotel & Casino in Gaza, for 2 weeks and 1 free beverage of my choice for the first seven days. I will also receive a framed photo of one of the children killed in the current conflict whose home once occupied the casino site.

  3. Unlikely Pied at 12.36.

    This is what Californian Congressman Eric Swalwell said. “Wait what? The U.S. is going to occupy Gaza? We were promised no more endless wars. By my count we are occupying Greenland, Canada, Panama Canal, and now, Gaza?”

    A perfect illustration of how that idiot and fraudster/rapist Trump can’t remember what he said the day before. He is enforcing austerity at home and going to spend $ trillions on taking over the whole world.

    If he doesn’t end up in the loony bin shortly, some real patriot will put a bullet between his eyes.

  4. Frednk

    Thanks for linking the video about the Melbourne port.

    I knew a little about the project, but this overview was really good.

    I have been so focused on the project taking place on my doorstep, the north east link. It is a monumental project to say the least.

    Even if team Labor lose in November, 2026, they have transformed our city. For that, I am very pleased.

  5. A short history reminder of the Multi National Force in Lebanon. Also on the coast. Also adjacent to Israel.

    The Multinational Force in Lebanon (MNF) was an international peacekeeping force created in August 1982 following a 1981 U.S.-brokered ceasefire between the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and Israel[3] to end their involvement in the conflict between Lebanon’s pro-government and pro-Syrian factions. The ceasefire held until June 3, 1982, when the Abu Nidal Organization attempted to assassinate Shlomo Argov, Israel’s ambassador to London.[4] Israel blamed the PLO and three days later invaded Lebanon. West Beirut was besieged for seven weeks before the PLO acceded to a new agreement for their withdrawal. The agreement provided for the deployment of a Multinational Force to assist the Lebanese Armed Forces in evacuating the PLO, Syrian forces and other foreign combatants involved in Lebanon’s civil war.

    The relatively benign environment at the beginning of the mission gave way to chaos as the civil war re-escalated following the assassination of President-elect Bashir Gemayel in September 1982. Subsequent political and military developments on the ground caused the MNF to be viewed not as a peacekeeper, but as a belligerent.[7] In early 1984, after it became apparent that the government of Lebanon was no longer able to impose its will on warring factions as they entered Beirut and hostilities renewed,[7] the MNF ended its presence mission in Beirut and went offshore before completely leaving Lebanon in July of the same year in the aftermath of the October 1983 barracks bombing that killed 241 U.S. and 58 French servicemen.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multinational_Force_in_Lebanon

  6. Seriously, as more thoughtful posters here have said, Oz is in no comfortable position.
    Half of our exports (and hence our source wealth) goes to China. We have made it plain to the Chinese we will not just let them ride over the top of us. On the other hand, we sell sweet nothing to the States but we are tightly in defence arrangements which clearly shows we have placed bets on the US being a kind of last resort guarantor of our national security.
    We will need someone with wit and wisdom on this one.
    Dutton gets his starting orders from Gina who would turn Oz into serfdom is she could. She, in turn, along with others like the Pratts are happy to be in the Oligarch throng who shared Trumps glory not so long ago.
    As we see from here, there are groups in Oz, who salivate at the thought of Dutton landing on our fair land, the Trump shit he is offering the US at the moment.
    This mob need to be constantly ridiculed and called to account. These individuals/groups are strong on slogans and seem to have a love for a neo-dictatorship but they too know where to shove this.

  7. It does seem Trump has thought this through…

    Asked who he envisions living in a U.S.-remade Gaza, Trump said, “I envision the world people living there. The world’s people. I think you’ll make that into an international, unbelievable place.”

    He said he also imagines Palestinians living there.

    “You have to learn from history. History is – you just can’t let it keep repeating itself. We have an opportunity to do something that could be phenomenal,” Trump said.

    https://www.npr.org/2025/02/04/nx-s1-5287012/trump-netanyahu-ceasefire-gaza

  8. Yah know ….. with all the shock and awful stuff emanating from the US right now ……. it probably makes sense for Albanese, Wong and Co to take a very cautious line with statements and declared positions on pretty much any international issue. They dont have to say things, just becasue some Liberal toe-rag wants a hysterical talking point for the day.

    Anyone remember how good it felt when Morriscum got the boot and the adults were back in charge?

  9. Zoe Daniel on the press club has been absolutely excellent. If you vote for freedom boy Tim Wilson over her you’ve got rocks in your head

  10. China has ridden over the sellout federal labor government who appeases communists because Albanese etc are weak.

    Results here…

    Oceania Glass goes bust after 169 years

    Simon Evans and Michael Bleby/AFR
    Feb 4, 2025 – 4.05pm

    Australia’s only architectural glass manufacturer, Oceania Glass, has collapsed after its losses mounted because of cheap imports from China and rising manufacturing costs.

    Made in Australia another labor failure!

  11. pied pipersays:
    Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 12:36 pm
    If you play ball with Trump you get the bat shoved up your Arse lefties!
    =====================================================

    First logical thing you said. Nations should no play ball with Trump to avoid that happening. Nations should try increasing trade with each other while divesting from trade with USA. The EURO should be made the currency of trade. Countries national banks should sell off their USD and buy EURO’s instead as the support for their currencies.

  12. davesays:
    Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 12:38 pm
    I should declare that for this early spruiking of this incredible project I am getting 20% off accommodation at the Trump Hotel & Casino in Gaza, for 2 weeks and 1 free beverage of my choice for the first seven days. I will also receive a framed photo of one of the children killed in the current conflict whose home once occupied the casino site.
    ===================================================

    I was going to ask how would you sleep at night. Then i realised you had explained it was a luxury room. So probably on satin sheets.

  13. Just to illustrate how stupid Trump is, he said he will build “beautiful new homes” for the Palestinians. I presume this will include the roads, schools, hospitals, water and power supplies, etc, that make up a city the size of Perth for the 2 million Palestinians in Gaza. Before that happens he has to find a location to do that, that has the natural resources to support and provide work for that population that isn’t already being used for that purpose.

    The bloke is a complete loon.

    The yanks were stupid enough to elect this charlatan, they deserve the consequences for doing so.

  14. Canada, Panama, Greenland, Gaza – who will be best placed to resist Trump when he turns his crazy eyes towards absorbing Australia?

  15. Nobody wants 2 million more refugees. Not Jordan, not Egypt, Not Saudi Arabia. Certainly not Europe. It is not going to fly with anyone but Netanyahu and the right in both America and Israel.

  16. davesays:
    Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 12:54 pm
    Victoria, do you support the east west link as well or just the north east link?
    _____________________
    She supports whatever the govt tells her to support.

  17. FFS, doesn’t Trump have anyone with some common sense in his inner circle that he listens to? When you surround yourself with yes men, you end up making bad decisions. His Gaza announcement would have to be the most shit idea I’ve ever heard a US President announce.

    This idea has obviously been masticating inside the family for a year or so: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/19/jared-kushner-gaza-waterfront-property-israel-negev

    I assume some Palestinians will be able to live close by to act as cheap labour for the construction and resorts. Perhaps some of them can put on displays of traditional crafts and belly dancing for the tourists.

  18. B. S. Fairmansays:
    Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 1:08 pm
    Nobody wants 2 million more refugees.

    Albo will gladly import them to fudge GDP growth

  19. davesays:
    Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 12:54 pm
    Victoria, do you support the east west link as well or just the north east link?
    ===========================================================

    I couldn’t support the East West link on Side Letter’s proposed alignment. Had it been realigned, to take out far more of the slums of Collingwood. I possibly would have supported it.

    Quote: “An Essendon supporter is a Collingwood supporter who can read and write”

  20. Granny Anny says Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 1:05 pm

    The yanks were stupid enough to elect this charlatan, they deserve the consequences for doing so.

    I would be in complete agreement with this, except I want to retire soon and I’m really worried about what the Moron in Chief is going to do to my super balance.

    By the way 50.2% of people who voted did not vote for Trump.

  21. bc @ #1174 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 1:10 pm

    FFS, doesn’t Trump have anyone with some common sense in his inner circle that he listens to? When you surround yourself with yes men, you end up making bad decisions. His Gaza announcement would have to be the most shit idea I’ve ever heard a US President announce.

    This idea has obviously been masticating inside the family for a year or so: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/19/jared-kushner-gaza-waterfront-property-israel-negev

    I assume some Palestinians will be able to live close by to act as cheap labour for the construction and resorts. Perhaps some of them can put on displays of traditional crafts and belly dancing for the tourists.

    Trump is a super salesman. That’s his super power. He keeps selling until he gets his way.

    You just have to watch his work.

  22. Taylormadesays:
    Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 1:10 pm
    davesays:
    Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 12:54 pm
    Victoria, do you support the east west link as well or just the north east link?
    _____________________
    She supports whatever the govt tells her to support.
    ===================================================

    While you do what exactly for the LNP?

  23. The US needs to remember it has lost every war it has been in since WWII…

    Trump says US will ‘take over’ and ‘own’ Gaza Strip and says US troops will be deployed ‘if it’s necessary’

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/feb/04/benjamin-netanyahu-donald-trump-israel-gaza-middle-east-ceasefire-latest-live-news

    A first even for the US.. using a military invasion to establish 18 hole golf courses in a boring country..

    Banana Republic status achieved in 2 weeks.. surely a record?

    As Colin Powell said in 2002… Colin Powell famously told President George W. Bush, “If you break it you own it.”

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/if-you-break-it-you-own-i_b_5545765

  24. Just reading that 42 US boys have committed suicide in a massive sextortion blackmail scam. About 10,000 affected.

    Biggest blackmail plot ever.

  25. Google playing catch-up on the hottest AI consumer trend of the year
    OpenAI released an AI agent last month that can take over consumers’ web browsers to order groceries or book a restaurant for dinner. Google says its assistant is coming later this year.Afr now.

    Scary Ai already

    Dave Bowman : Open the pod bay doors, HAL.

    HAL : I’m sorry, Dave. I’m afraid I can’t do that.

    Trump exposing Albanese failures on Gaza.

  26. Reported on the Remeikis blog, but yet to appear on the Guardian blog. Interesting.

    “Greens respond to Trump threats
    While we wait for the prime minister to respond, I can bring you what Greens leader Adam Bandt has said about Trump following his announcements he plans on ethnically cleansing the Gaza strip and have the US ‘own’ the sovereign territory (both illegal under international law, in case it needs stating).
    Bandt:
    “The Greens said, when Donald Trump was elected, that Donald Trump be a threat to peace and turning democracy and tragically this recent announcement that we’ve seen today in this further proof of this. This is wrong. This is the end of international law. This is Donald Trump talking about the takeover of another country, potentially by force. The Australian Government must make that it opposes a clear violation of international law. Whatever one thinks about the situation in the conflict in the Middle East, this is clearly wrong. Australia also unfortunately has a very poor record in the past of simply following the United States into conflict. The Australian Government must make it clear that it opposes this recent announcement from Donald Trump, and also that it will play no part in this matter.“

  27. bc says:
    Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 1:16 pm
    “I would be in complete agreement with this, except I want to retire soon and I’m really worried about what the Moron in Chief is going to do to my super balance.”

    SELL!!!!!!!!! or at least select Zero risk option in super & invest in Bank cash funds.
    You can always move back after Trump gets pushed off the top of Trump Tower

  28. I got onto a John Anderson site by mistake. I was lured by some git saying if the Poms hadn’t colonised Australia it would’ve been the Frogs, it was going to happen. I thought that was a realistic enough statement but it just turned into a glorification of everything us whites have done for the indinenous folks.

  29. While some may see Albo’s reaction to Trump’s annexation of Gaza as a ‘straight bat’, this is how Amy R views it:
    “Anthony Albanese declines to criticise Trump’s plans for Gaza or comment on international law
    Anthony Albanese is asked about Donald Trump’s (illegal) plans for Gaza and says:
    “I’ve said before that I don’t intend to have a running commentary on the President of the United States’ statements.…What I would say is that Australia’s position is the same as it was this morning, as it was last year and it was 10 years ago and it was under the Howard government.
    The Australian government support, on a bipartisan basis, a 2-state solution in the Middle East.”

  30. Can’t wait for Penny Wong to not be foreign minister anymore. She is the most incompetent person in that post since time immemorial. Not difficult to see why: she is the ultimate epitome of DEI.

    At 57 this year she will have no chance of getting a government minister position again after her party loses this election and languishes in opposition / withers away over the next decade.

  31. Soharsays:
    Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 1:24 pm

    Was waiting for a big showy statement from someone like the Greens to make a point – what feels good for domestic political debate is no the same as what is good for foreign policy.

    Best outcome is to not get involved and keep our heads down. Both China and now the US have shown to have erratic leadership based off perceived slights, so there is no point in making ineffectual songs-and-dances now.

    We don’t need to arrogantly shout inaction, just quietly do nothing.

  32. Lars at 9.30 am and 9.43 am, Oakeshott Country at 9.34 and 9.57 am, Boerwar at 10.09 am

    “The Grand Coalition cometh! No more than 102 days until it’s unveiled.”

    Look at comparable countries, even with different electoral systems, before pontificating thus.

    E.g. the German Tories, the CDU, are stuck at 30%. See:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_German_federal_election

    Their main option is a coalition with both the SPD and the Greens. They may well need both. Unless they follow the Swedish example and cooperate with the fascists. Unlikely in Germany.

    The fascists in Sweden are more popular now than their ruling Tory mates, but the two small conservative parties look like being zeroed at the 2026 election, because of their bedfellows.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Swedish_general_election

    OC: “… when it appeared a third force had the chance to form government.”

    Where is that third force in Australia? Nowhere to be seen. Make no mistake, the 2022 election was a realignment with the loss of hitherto heartland Lib seats to the Teals. The implication, which Dutton has yet to understand, is that this will make it harder for the Libs to win again.

    As for Ms Spender as a Treasurer, she is very measured and unruffled in media appearances, like the current Treasurer, but she understands well that her mode of influence is different.

  33. Compare what Albo says

    “I’ve said before that I don’t intend to have a running commentary on the President of the United States’ statements.…What I would say is that Australia’s position is the same as it was this morning, as it was last year and it was 10 years ago and it was under the Howard government.
    The Australian government support, on a bipartisan basis, a 2-state solution in the Middle East.”

    Sober, balanced, non-inflammatory, in Australia’s interests.

    I predict in QT upcoming, Dutton will lose his shit.

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