The campaign for the Western Australian election on March 8 formally commences this week with the issuing of the writs, there are two interesting Victorian state by-elections on Saturday (more on one of them below), and there will shortly be a New South Wales state by-election to contend with in Port Macquarie following retirement announcement from Nationals-turned-Liberal member Leslie Williams. That’s to say nothing of the small matter of a looming federal election, for which April 12 is generally considered the most likely date, particularly after last week’s inflation numbers shortened the odds on an interest rate cut later this month.
Also of note:
• The Financial Review this week had polling data for the 18-to-34 cohort broken down by gender, combined from Freshwater Strategy’s monthly polling in November, December and January. Presumably inspired by the stark divide in voting and ideology that’s opened up between young men and women in the United States, the results find the phenomenon to be relatively subdued here: the big difference was that support for the Greens was at 32% among young women and 20% among young men, with both major parties scoring higher among men (Labor 36%, Coalition 32%) than women (Labor 32%, Coalition 25%). Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group calculates two-party Labor leads of 67-33 among the women and 59-41 among the men. Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 58-27 among the women and 55-37 among the men, but both leaders scored much worse among women than men on net approval.
• 7News has a new election prediction model, in which political science academics Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo were involved. Mansillo was also involved in The Guardian’s tracker, but this one is quite different: whereas The Guardian’s model goes far beyond any poll result in crediting the Coalition with a commanding 53.1-46.9 lead, the 7News model has it at 51-49. Mansillo is quoted saying the mode leans just slightly in favour of Labor forming government because of an inefficiently distributed Coalition swing, leaving them set to run up margins in already safe rural and regional seats.
• Labor’s Stephen Jones announced last week that he will not seek re-election in his Illawarra region seat of Whitlam. Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reports the only known contender for Labor preselection is Keely O’Brien, general manger of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers. However, O’Brien is of the Right and the consensus appears to be that the Right will not formally oppose the national executive ratifying the nominee of Jones’s own Left faction. The report further relates that an informal deal reserves Whitlam to the Left and the state seat of Shoalhaven to the Right, but some consider the Right is owed a seat after Anthony Albanese imposed Ashvini Ambihaipahar of the Left in Barton.
• The South Australian Liberal Party has chosen Leah Blyth, education executive and state party president, to fill the Senate vacancy created by Simon Birmingham’s retirement, replacing a moderate with a conservative. Brad Crouch of The Advertiser reports Blyth won the party ballot with 119 votes to 71 for lawyer Sam Hooper and 11 for Adelaide councillor Henry Davis. As Birmingham was re-elected in 2022, Blyth will not be required to contest the coming election.
• A party vote to disendorse Jacob Vadakkedathu as the Liberals’ Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate over branch stacking allegations was defeated on Saturday. X account Preselection Updates relates the margin was 109 votes to 74.
• Patrick Durkin of the Financial Review (no link available at present) reports Labor polling shows Saturday’s by-election in Werribee “could be as close as 48-52” in favour of the government, suggesting a 9% Liberal swing. However, Liberals “denied the race was that close” and said a 5% swing would be a good result. Chip Le Grand of The Age also cites a Liberal source talking down the party’s chances by citing a “missed opportunity” to win over the local Indian community by preselecting local businessman Rajan Chopra, instead choosing 63-year-old real estate agent Steve Murphy.
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 11:31 am
Entropy
Ice melt that far north in mid winter is quite something…
There is a bit of chat about the circumpolar vortex breaking down.
==================================================
Some discussion 6 to 8 months ago, on here, whether the Southern Ocean one was too. It does appear both are weakening. Whether they reach a tipping point where a sudden collapse just occurs or a continued more gradual weakening is what we will see. Is something still scientist are trying to determine with their modelling. Which is far more complex then simple modeling that shows the correlation between atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and world average temperatures.
Tiaga Tiaga burning bright, no more arboreal forests of the perpetual winters night.
How to kill a zombie fire?
Create the conditions so it can burn all year round. It will then just be a fire.
What services will get cut by Dutton?
Last time he screwed health, disability services, education, veterans, aged care, child care and wages.
What about next time?
Yes, It’s a Coup and Yes, It’s Targeting You
https://www.thedailybeast.com/yes-its-a-coup-and-yes-its-targeting-you/
Take no notice of the crap posted by Scromoll or Pied Piper. They are just shit stirring to get a rise out of people with an IQ above their shoe size. You would have to be pretty thick to want to be a part of a society like one they advocate.
However, at 9.30am, Scromoll posted that Gaza should be ethnically cleansed and that is “pretty generous considering that Israel was the original land of Jews.”
I look forward to some consistency here from Scromoll as he advocates the return of Australia to its original inhabitants.
The US and Israel combined to obliterate Gaza and are now moving to expel the displaced inhabitants to complete the invasion and occupation.
Does the Labor Govt approve of this ?
What bollocks Boer. We don’t have an EPA because Albo is a spineless flake who will happily abandon any and all principles on the altar of electoral expediency
The greens had done a deal and made significant concessions – ending native forest logging isn’t ‘extreme’, some states like Victoria have already done it and it’s a heavily subsidised loss making industry in every other state, and basically a made up jobs factory for the kind of people that would never vote for Labor anyway, a bit like salmon farming in Strahan
Albo squashed the deal In order to sure up votes in WA and appease a mining lobby who will continue to oppose Labor at every opportunity anyway, and threw Tanya P under a bus in the process, so the only reason we don’t have a deal is Albo. Anything else is sophistry
If the greens weren’t there we may have a. EPA enforcing woefully inadequate laws and basically appeasing the mining and fossil fuel lobbies anyway, so what would be the point?
Pa banquo I did enjoy your links, good to see what the enemy thinks and crikey is often worth a read but not part of my normal rounds
Dutton is going to do exactly the same as Trump.
Does Dutton support the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and the West Bank and the Golan Heights?
Labor and the Liberals decree Death by farmed salmon shit to the Maugean Skate.
Greenies trying to block more renewables:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-05/wind-farm-plans-for-kentbruck-forestry-plantations-victoria/104882234
I mean FFS, it is a plantation! Bulldoze the lot and just get building already.
“The Doge team intends to insert artificial intelligence tools into the government computer systems to assess contracts and identify cuts, the New York Times reported.”
Lol! I wonder if anyone in the US has heard of RoboDebt??
“Does Dutton support the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and the West Bank and the Golan Heights?”
Of course he does …. well …at least until Ginas mate Trump tells him to take a couple of million Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank because after all Australia has all that empty space thats not being used ………. 🙂
Then we will see what verbal gymnastics Dutton is capable of. 🙂
Have they actually come out with any real policies yet or are we still at the uncosted brainfart stage of the campaign??
‘Pageboi says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 11:50 am
What bollocks Boer….’
===============
Only the other day you were trying to scam Bludgers that Labor had tried only one left thing thing and you chose for that the Voice. You are a routine anti-Labor slagger. Nothing more. Nothing less.
It is routine for the Greens to set impossible conditions and then scream and shout.
If there is any sort of a compromise by Labor that is shouted as a victory for the Greens while at the same time Labor is heartily, repeatedly and loudly condemned as being inadequate.
When the Greens completely dropped their original absolute and impossible condition for supporting the EPA, I thought, hello, there may be a chance here for something sensible from the Greens.
But it was just another Greens negotiating scam.
They dropped one impossible absolute condition and did the old three card trick: they swapped it for another absolute and impossible condition. The Federal Government does not control land clearing. The states do. Cute hey? Of course suckers like you sucked it up.
So, no go.
Absolutely predictably, you have been sucked in by the Greens performative negotiations.
The Greens as usual have delivered a great big noisy nothing burger. No reform. No progress. Lots of posturing. Lots of ritual condemnation of how evil Labor is.
The Greens like you depend on people like you to swallow their snake oil and to spread the rancid word.
Lars loves eating salmon raised in their own shit.
Dutton and his attack boy are very much on the record supporting the state of israel in their unlimited right to defend themselves irrespective of international law, and that they disagree with any application of international law with respect to israel’s offense on gaza, so while they probably wouldn’t put it in the words proposed by BW, they are de-facto supportive of that position as a matter of record.
How ’bout albo tho? Does he have any red lines for the US that will render our ‘very close alliance’ obsolete? Or does he offer carte blanche support? He’s the leader of our country – a fair question to ask imo.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 11:48 am
The US and Israel combined to obliterate Gaza and are now moving to expel the displaced inhabitants to complete the invasion and occupation.
Does the Labor Govt approve of this ?
_________
Seriously? Let me you help out as you appear rather ignorant in this matter. This is a good article on where the Australian Government sits on this matter:
https://insidestory.org.au/labor-goes-one-way-israel-the-other/
You would actually be better off in asking your question of the Coalition. They are in agreement with Labor on a two-state solution, but they disagreed with the shift in Labor policy and the UN vote.
But that wouldn’t suit your agenda now, would it? 😉
Trump to take over Gaza strip. Same old shit from a dodgy property developer. All about money. Lets see how long this brainfart lasts.
The grand coalition has delivered a useless NACC.
The grand coalition has delivered a fossil fuel cartel controlled parliament.
The grand coalition has ceded Defence sovereignty through AUKUS.
The grand coalition has delivered a Murdochracy.
Griffsays:
You would actually be better off in asking your question of the Coalition. They are in agreement with Labor on a two-state solution, but they disagreed with the shift in Labor policy and the UN vote.
But that wouldn’t suit your agenda now, would it?
__________________________
But it would suit your agenda. 😉
banquo911 says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 11:58 am
Dutton and his attack boy are very much on the record supporting the state of israel in their unlimited right to defend themselves irrespective of international law, and that they disagree with any application of international law with respect to israel’s offense on gaza, so while they probably wouldn’t put it in the words proposed by BW, they are de-facto supportive of that position as a matter of record.
How ’bout albo tho? Does he have any red lines for the US that will render our ‘very close alliance’ obsolete? Or does he offer carte blanche support? He’s the leader of our country – a fair question to ask imo.
________
You are asking the question to the right party, unlike Rex. The Liberals agree with a Two State Solution policy, which may not be in keeping with Trump’s statements. See : https://www.liberal.org.au/2024/10/09/coalition-stands-firm-as-labor-keeps-capitulating
It would be good to know Coalition policy in light of current events.
steve davissays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 12:02 pm
Trump to take over Gaza strip. Same old shit from a dodgy property developer. All about money. Lets see how long this brainfart lasts.
_________________________
Albo could expand his property portfolio with some condos on the Med.
Trump has met Netanyahu and received his orders from the Israeli PM. Now the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza is turning into annexation. All completely illegal under international law.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-wants-palestinians-to-be-permanently-resettled-outside-of-gaza-20250205-p5l9p0.html
Incredibly Trump is volunteering US troops to occupy Gaza. Its Lebanon 1982 all over again. Israel will get the territory and the US army will takes all the risks and pays the expenses.
I am glad Australia has backed away from supporting Israel in the UN and agree with Griff that it is the LNP that have questions to answer over continuing to support an expansionist Israel.
The questions to be asking Labor relate to USA, not Israel. Do we still support our US ally? Do we still believe the USA protects a “rules based order”? (If so, which rules?) Do we still share values in common?
I have said before IMO it is time to distance ourselves from USA, not just Israel. This is further evidence.
dave says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 12:03 pm
Griffsays:
You would actually be better off in asking your question of the Coalition. They are in agreement with Labor on a two-state solution, but they disagreed with the shift in Labor policy and the UN vote.
But that wouldn’t suit your agenda now, would it?
__________________________
But it would suit your agenda.
_________
Yes it does. I think it is a valid question to be put to Dutton now. The Australian Government shifted out of complete alignment with the US in December with the vote in the UN. What is Dutton’s views in light of Trump’s remarks?
Is Richard marles still excited to be working with Trump’s defence secretary?
Is penny Wong still honoured to have attended trumps inauguration?
We’re now in an alliance (of sorts, more of a vassal relationship) with a us whose official position is ethnic cleansing and a us takeover of Gaza
Not only that we’ve invited that same power to base nuclear bombers and subs on our soil, making us an even bigger nuclear target (the people of Darwin and Perth mist be thrilled), and all for the privilege of letting them drag usi to a war of containment with our biggest trading partner, whilst propping up theirs and the UK shipbuilding industry for a vague promise of unicorn submarines we’ll likely never see , and on the basis of a treaty that doesn’t even guarantee either party will come to our aid if we are attacked
If we had any balls at all we’d be demanding huge ‘rent’ from Trump for all of the above, he loves a deal after all, but not we’re literally bending over and giving it away for free. And all because Labor has no principles and is too scared that the coalition might say mean things if they had an inkling of an independent thought on defence and foreign policy
I hope Dutton and the rest of his right wing gaggle have enough sense to say nothing about the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. There has already been too much community tension here over Middle East conflicts and the last thing we need is more.
Well with Gaza settled, Trump can turn his eyes to annexing Ukraine..
Trump told reporters:
“The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it too. We’ll own it. And be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site, level the site and get rid of the destroyed buildings, level it out, create an economic development that will supply unlimited numbers of jobs and housing for the people of the area”.
Trump continued:
“I do see along term ownership position and I see it bringing great stability to that part of the Middle East and maybe the entire Middle East. Everybody I have spoken to, this was not a decision made lightly, everybody I have spoken to love the idea of the United States owning that piece of land, developing and creating thousands of jobs with something that will be magnificent, really magnificent that nobody would know and nobody can look because all they see is death and destruction and rubble and demolished buildings falling all over.
A terrible sight.
I have studied this very closely over a lot of months and I have seen it from every different angle and it is a very dangerous place to be. It is only going to get worse. I think it is an idea that has gotten tremendous, I am talking about from the highest level of leadership, gotten tremendous [response] and if the United States can help to bring stability and peace in the Middle East we will do that.”
‘banquo911 says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 11:58 am
Dutton and his attack boy are very much on the record supporting the state of israel in their unlimited right to defend themselves irrespective of international law, and that they disagree with any application of international law with respect to israel’s offense on gaza, so while they probably wouldn’t put it in the words proposed by BW, they are de-facto supportive of that position as a matter of record.
How ’bout albo tho? Does he have any red lines for the US that will render our ‘very close alliance’ obsolete? Or does he offer carte blanche support? He’s the leader of our country – a fair question to ask imo.’
==================
The two groups of extremists with respect to ME policy are the Greens and the Coalition. They have been stirring up communalist hatreds, although I notice the Greens have belatedly actually been making statements that are general rather than particular. It is almost as if they have twigged that Iran+ has a genocidal vision.
Other than that, any sensible government in the world today would be doing no three of the three options you have with a malignant narcissist suffering from progressive frontal lobe dementia:
1. fight
2. kowtow
3. lay low until either 1 or 2 is forced on you.
Yes it does. I think it is a valid question to be put to Dutton now. The Australian Government shifted out of complete alignment with the US in December with the vote in the UN. What is Dutton’s views in light of Trump’s remarks?
__________________________
Oh well that vote gives Labor all the cover it needs not to say anything about the issue? Classic Stoogery. I’d like to hear from both of them about what’s being proposed by our ally.
So are the USA going to take in all the refugees from Gaza so they can live there? LOL.
One more thing. If Labor can’t differentiate itself from the LNP over Israel and Trump’s policy to Gaza then, like Biden in Michigan, Albo is going to bleed a lot of votes to the Greens and Teals.
With that said, I shall attempt to once again refrain to speak on the Middle East. It is a lose-lose situation.
Pageboi says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 12:09 pm
….
If we had any balls at all…’
==================
Did you mean if we had any ovaries at all or were you just being sexist in a minor and incidental sort of way?
If we have any sense at all we will lay as low as we can for as long as we can. So far Albanese is doing a competent job of handling the most powerful two year old in the world.
I know the Greens would want open and immediate armed conflict with a malignant narcissist but that is just the Greens’ way: arrogant and righteous stupidity.
The grand coalition is placing Australia in an unethical and perilous position by doubling down on our US alliance.
Good idea Griff. You haven’t the intellectual armament to bring peace to the Middle East, let alone turn it to your advantage and make billions off property deals for prime Mediterranean seafront condominiums. You loser.
Socrates says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 12:11 pm
One more thing. If Labor can’t differentiate itself from the LNP….’
=================
It already has.
The practical political result is vicious attacks from the Greens, the Teals, the Liberals, the Nationals and PHON.
Excellent shows Trump cares…
Guardian aust now.
Trump says US will ‘take over’ the Gaza Strip and ‘level’ it
Trump once again says Gaza is a “demolition site” that is “very dangerous and very precarious”.
He says the Palestinians in Gaza should be moved to a “beautiful area with homes and safety …. so that they can live out their lives in peace and harmony”.
“The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it too,” Trump says.
We’ll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site, level the site and get rid of the destroyed buildings.
In WA Premier off to the Gov let the election begin!.
Rex wants a grand coalition.
pied piper says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 12:15 pm
Excellent shows Trump cares…
=================
… like pied piper cares.
@Griff, on that I think we can agree. I expect it’ll save Mr Bowe a headache also.
dave says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 12:11 pm
Yes it does. I think it is a valid question to be put to Dutton now. The Australian Government shifted out of complete alignment with the US in December with the vote in the UN. What is Dutton’s views in light of Trump’s remarks?
__________________________
Oh well that vote gives Labor all the cover it needs not to say anything about the issue? Classic Stoogery. I’d like to hear from both of them about what’s being proposed by our ally.
________
Sure. You can hear from both if you want. For me the shift by Australia in the UN vote in December is far more important than what people say on the matter. Thankfully all we have is what people say on when they are in Opposition. Unless you want to look back to when they were in power. Then we could look at the West Jerusalem situation: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/17/australia-quietly-drops-recognition-of-west-jerusalem-as-capital-of-israel
What a bloody hypocrite. Trump and his goons are madly slashing expenditure at home and now he is committing $trillions to resettling Palestinians and cleaning up Gaza.
The US population won’t take much more of this circus.
James Hansen’s latest.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/04/climate-change-target-of-2c-is-dead-says-renowned-climate-scientist
dave says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 12:14 pm
Good idea Griff. You haven’t the intellectual armament to bring peace to the Middle East, let alone turn it to your advantage and make billions off property deals for prime Mediterranean seafront condominiums. You loser.
____________
I confess I am not a very stable genius 🙂
Edit: I forgot to add ‘very’!
Granny Annysays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 12:18 pm
What a bloody hypocrite. Trump and his goons are madly slashing expenditure at home and now he is committing $trillions to resettling Palestinians and cleaning up Gaza.
______________
No I think the plan is to get the Saudis to pay for the relocation, with other nations kicking in according to oil wealth. US then acquires the Gaza strip for nothing. Israel supplies the water, electricity and technical knowledge to build the largest hotel and casino in the known universe. There will also be brothels, lots of em, and strip bars and normal bars and European tourists by the millions.
Comical Larsi 😐
dave @ #1141 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 12:22 pm
You left out the LIV golf courses. 😐
Granny Annysays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 11:48 am
Take no notice of the crap posted by Scromoll or Pied Piper. They are just shit stirring to get a rise out of people with an IQ above their shoe size. You would have to be pretty thick to want to be a part of a society like one they advocate.
However, at 9.30am, Scromoll posted that Gaza should be ethnically cleansed and that is “pretty generous considering that Israel was the original land of Jews.”
======================================================
While the accuracy of Jewish religious mythology is highly dubious. Even their mythology doesn’t claim they are the original inhabitants of the land. Hence when their sky fairy supposedly gave them the land. He (it was he not she) told them to cleanse it of all others. It is pretty clear that places like Jericho were genocided, with only a prostitute and her family spared, at least in their religious mythology.
I know the orange clown is a deranged idiot but the Gaza sh*t is next level.
So Dave at 12.22pm, I suspect you are being a little facetious, but is the US Government going to pay for all those tourist facilities in Gaza while enforcing austerity at home? Trump can’t do it, banks won’t lend him the money because he doesn’t pay his bills.
Because the Herald/sun is only about hanging shit on Labor this is something you do not here about.
A lot of noise about what is costs, nothing about what has been brought:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81CLKTJnw7I
Granny Annysays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 12:29 pm
So Dave at 12.22pm, I suspect you are being a little facetious, but is the US Government going to pay for all those tourist facilities in Gaza while enforcing austerity at home?
____________
Of course not. Wall Street will, and if they are a little reluctant there’s Bezos, Larry, Elon and Zuck
If you play ball with Trump you get the bat shoved up your Arse lefties!