The campaign for the Western Australian election on March 8 formally commences this week with the issuing of the writs, there are two interesting Victorian state by-elections on Saturday (more on one of them below), and there will shortly be a New South Wales state by-election to contend with in Port Macquarie following retirement announcement from Nationals-turned-Liberal member Leslie Williams. That’s to say nothing of the small matter of a looming federal election, for which April 12 is generally considered the most likely date, particularly after last week’s inflation numbers shortened the odds on an interest rate cut later this month.
Also of note:
• The Financial Review this week had polling data for the 18-to-34 cohort broken down by gender, combined from Freshwater Strategy’s monthly polling in November, December and January. Presumably inspired by the stark divide in voting and ideology that’s opened up between young men and women in the United States, the results find the phenomenon to be relatively subdued here: the big difference was that support for the Greens was at 32% among young women and 20% among young men, with both major parties scoring higher among men (Labor 36%, Coalition 32%) than women (Labor 32%, Coalition 25%). Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group calculates two-party Labor leads of 67-33 among the women and 59-41 among the men. Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 58-27 among the women and 55-37 among the men, but both leaders scored much worse among women than men on net approval.
• 7News has a new election prediction model, in which political science academics Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo were involved. Mansillo was also involved in The Guardian’s tracker, but this one is quite different: whereas The Guardian’s model goes far beyond any poll result in crediting the Coalition with a commanding 53.1-46.9 lead, the 7News model has it at 51-49. Mansillo is quoted saying the mode leans just slightly in favour of Labor forming government because of an inefficiently distributed Coalition swing, leaving them set to run up margins in already safe rural and regional seats.
• Labor’s Stephen Jones announced last week that he will not seek re-election in his Illawarra region seat of Whitlam. Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reports the only known contender for Labor preselection is Keely O’Brien, general manger of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers. However, O’Brien is of the Right and the consensus appears to be that the Right will not formally oppose the national executive ratifying the nominee of Jones’s own Left faction. The report further relates that an informal deal reserves Whitlam to the Left and the state seat of Shoalhaven to the Right, but some consider the Right is owed a seat after Anthony Albanese imposed Ashvini Ambihaipahar of the Left in Barton.
• The South Australian Liberal Party has chosen Leah Blyth, education executive and state party president, to fill the Senate vacancy created by Simon Birmingham’s retirement, replacing a moderate with a conservative. Brad Crouch of The Advertiser reports Blyth won the party ballot with 119 votes to 71 for lawyer Sam Hooper and 11 for Adelaide councillor Henry Davis. As Birmingham was re-elected in 2022, Blyth will not be required to contest the coming election.
• A party vote to disendorse Jacob Vadakkedathu as the Liberals’ Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate over branch stacking allegations was defeated on Saturday. X account Preselection Updates relates the margin was 109 votes to 74.
• Patrick Durkin of the Financial Review (no link available at present) reports Labor polling shows Saturday’s by-election in Werribee “could be as close as 48-52” in favour of the government, suggesting a 9% Liberal swing. However, Liberals “denied the race was that close” and said a 5% swing would be a good result. Chip Le Grand of The Age also cites a Liberal source talking down the party’s chances by citing a “missed opportunity” to win over the local Indian community by preselecting local businessman Rajan Chopra, instead choosing 63-year-old real estate agent Steve Murphy.
Boerwar @ #1046 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 10:09 am
Yes there all the differences but the big similarity is that Both Liberals and Labor like power and its trappings.
Thanks to all the filter feeders, browsers and presenters of dawn patrols. Much appreciated.
I suppose Dutton will be consistent and vote against the child care subsidy bills.
He and his family have divested have they not?
Or will he vote FOR the childcare subsidy bill before the election and just cut it after the election?
Paul z
It is you who puts “nothing will change my mind”
I am actually a creature of Corporate Australia not rusted onto any political party only calling the tune as I see it
My social circle is from both sides of politics, as you would expect given my background
Except that these days I have no association with any sitting Coalition Member, only those of the old guard and now retired
You are uneducated – the result from having a closed mind and spending your time on this site peddling the closed mind rubbish you peddle
And, as a former banker to Corporate Australia, it is not the debt
It is the performance of the assets that debt is invested into
In regard Victoria, schools, hospitals, law and order (so Police, Courts and jails) AND infrastructure accomodating not only contemporaneous but future requirements of society
What is your alternative – going back to the horse and cart?
For all those Gaza protestors who refused to vote for Kamala Harris, I guess it was worth it. Sheesh.
pied piper says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:30 am
Labor has weaponised the Hamas attack on Israel to secure western Sydney votes.
Complete bullshit from pied piper. Only a sick mind or Russian troll would spout this crap.
Democrats confront limits of their power in bid to stop Trump and Musk
Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said in an interview. “Only two weeks in, Elon Musk is already our worst president ever.”
https://apnews.com/article/democrats-trump-elon-musk-doge-protest-91281e059b7e0d807a3dbb07ff638ebb
sprocket
I’m going with pied piper being a Bona fide troll.
Labor has been all in for Western Sydney votes and have damaged the social fabric as a result.
One reason they were up 57-43 now behind because of selling out to Hamas.
The sickness of the left knows no limits.
‘Victoria says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 10:20 am
For all those Gaza protestors who refused to vote for Kamala Harris, I guess it was worth it. Sheesh.’
============================
If ever there was a group that was completely and utterly treated with contempt it is US muslims who voted for Trump.
They voted for peace and they got ethnic cleansing, 2,000 lb bombs and the end of US funding for civil aid in Gaza and the West Bank.
It will be no consolation at all for them that they have plenty of company when it comes to turkeys being scammed into voting for Christmas.
And what is the Coalition’s take on Trump’s scamming turkeys?
Cash: Trump a ‘man of action’ and Coalition would have ‘exact same attitude’”
pied piper @ #1058 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 10:23 am
Bollocks.
Hey, how’s the pandering to the Authoritarian White Right going, pied pipsqueak?
Pied piper is like Dutton: divisive, hate-filled, full of contempt.
Dutton’s contempt for Indigenous people is being ramped up.
He won’t stand anywhere near an Aboriginal flag.
He will get rid of Aboriginal names.
Boerwar
Yep. In a nutshell.
Mind you I’m still waiting to hear from those who thought Elon Musk was not the evil piece of crap, some of us said he was from the get go.
How is that working out for democracy?
sprocket_ @ #1055 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 10:21 am
Or a Gina troll.
‘Victoria says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 10:20 am
For all those Gaza protestors who refused to vote for Kamala Harris, I guess it was worth it. Sheesh.
====================
… not forgetting the efforts of the US Greens to bleed support from Harris to the benefit of Trump with similar efforts being carried out in Australia by the Greens.
Scromoll
It is hard to ignore the absolute hateful stuff you come out with, but a democratic site is a democratic site.
*You are deluded if you think the Gaza people went through some recognizable democratic process to put Hamas in power, but if you believe this you will believe anything I guess
*There is no moral high ground for you. Some 1500 Israeli’s murdered by Hamas: Some 45000 civilians killed (murdered?) by the IDF
*Your reference to a policy to “duly redistribute” Gaza citizens and then throw in a comment about the Wannsee Conference is troubling. Along with you other posts, it is not hard to see what end of the right spectrum you sit
*As you are a lover of things Trump and want to see Dutton follow a similar regime here are reasons people with your views have to be challenged and, where possible, make sure they never come to pass in Oz.
Suggestion: Go and live in the US and you can have all the things Trump offers without waiting.
Fair to say you are not alone on this site with similar views……hopefully just part of a very distasteful (to me) minority.
The Lobster Party has its representatives out and about today.
What say you Desiree?
I like Labor’s bosses lunch steak tartare ad. This stuff feeds off itself.
So much for the man of the people.
No suprise.
Dutton: the rich bosses bestie.
Yes!
They have enlisted Gorden Gecko getting some Dutton’s free lunch money. Well, not Dutton’s, exactly.
Your’s and mine tax money.
”
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 10:09 am
I see that the same old, same old fetish has reared its head again this time by way of grand coalition dreaming.
Ireland is not Australia. No analogy.
The Liberals and Nationals want to suppress wages.
Labor has increased real wages.
Form a grand coalition around that.
The Liberals and Nationals want to get rid of any vestige of climate action.
Labor is delivering 43/30 with more to come.
Form a grand coalition around that.
The Liberals fear, loathe and have contempt for minorities.
Labor supports minorities.
Form a grand coalition around that.
”
Lars and OC wild imagination/ fantasy that some how ALP and LNP will form a grand coalition is biggest nonsense I have read.
It will not happen in our life times, if ever it is to happen.
Australia, Canada and UK becoming 51st, 52nd & 53rd states of US is much more near reality than ALP and LNP form a grand coalition.
Dutton becoming a Australian dictator in next 3 years is more possible than ALP-LNP grand coalition.
Lars expected Albanese to resign as PM since June, 2023. It did not happen and Lars is completely pissed off because of that. We all know OC b-hurts.
Meanwhile the Dems are starting to find their voices.
We just need MAGAs to wake the f@@k up!!
The USA may well indeed be headed to a constitutional crisis.
Fun times.
OC
Just on grand coalitions, and risks inherent – Israel has tried it a few times, with a shared Prime Minister year at a time.
Main problem was when Bibi Netanyahu got back in the big chair he refused to leave.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/end-of-israels-grand-coalitions
Scromoll
The Australia you described would be utterly unacceptable to the vast majority of Australians. It would make JWHs overreach with workchoices look like a minor blip in comparison. I would advocate strong resistance to any such policies, including a general strike of the populace and any and all other non violent means of resistance
A government as you described would be absolutely wiped out at the following election, and deservedly so. The pushback would be next level
Find a single person outside the sky news/IPA bubble advocating for any of that…..
The Liberal Party is an 80 year old + marketing scam. Its sole raison d’être is to perpetuate the establishment by opposing Labor: it is the key brigade of the Anti Labor Party.
A ‘grand coalition’ comprising the LNP and Labor?
Magical thinking peddled by the trolling irritants on the board. The latest bullshit du jore.
sprocket_ @ #1072 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 10:48 am
My nephew in law who had been president of the Fianna Fail Cumman at the University of Galway was totally opposed to any dealings with the Fine Gael scum but, when it became a choice between them and Sinn Fein, he suddenly found a deep affection for the people who tied his great-grandfather to the land mine (poetic licence: that did happen but to my nephew-in-law’s family)
The US’ constitutional crisis was January 6th 2021. The response was initially adequate, but ultimately failed. I suspect that what is currently occurring will open the way for the suspension of free and fair elections as they have previously existed. The US is a failed state.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1074 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 10:56 am
Is the NSW Right opposed to the establishment? Who knew?
Hullo, sorry I’ve not been doing the aust & afrs. Thursdays being auto-modded took the fun out of it. I’ll have another go tomorrow if anyone was reading it/found it useful.
Have just caught up on the last couple days – surprised that we’re happy to just let labor (jk it was just albo) formally killing off the nature-positive legislation yesterday pass by unremarked.\
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coalition-pressed-on-its-childcare-policy-labor-struggles-for-support-on-super-changes/news-story/c88c26c940ee3854a7667f8d071c68f4
Victoriasays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 8:15 am
Is anyone at all surprised?
TRUMP SAYS “GAZA HAS NOT WORKED” AND PALESTINIANS SHOULD BE MOVED OUT TO A “FRESH PIECE OF LAND” OR “NUMEROUS PIECES OF LAND,” SUGGESTS THEY COULD BE MOVED TO JORDAN OR EGYPT.
===================================================
The removal of peoples from their lands. Is part of the UN’s definition of a genocide. This action would only satisfy Trump, the Likud Government, Dutton and Democracy Sausage. All democratic nations would rightfully be appalled by it.
I note Trump and Netanyahu just casually chatting about a bit of harmless ethnic cleansing.
Australia needs to reassess our alliances.
Just received my summer power bill.
Thanks to the Albanese and Cook Labor governments nothing to pay.
And $60 in credit for next period.
That’s called cost of living relief.
Liberals oppose energy rebates.
Labor helps people.
‘banquo911 says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 11:02 am
Hullo, sorry I’ve not been doing the aust & afrs. Thursdays being auto-modded took the fun out of it. I’ll have another go tomorrow if anyone was reading it/found it useful.
Have just caught up on the last couple days – surprised that we’re happy to just let labor (jk it was just albo) formally killing off the nature-positive legislation yesterday pass by unremarked.\
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coalition-pressed-on-its-childcare-policy-labor-struggles-for-support-on-super-changes/news-story/c88c26c940ee3854a7667f8d071c68f4‘
=======================
… all killed by Greens’ extreme demands, unfortunately.
For the first two and a half years the Greens demand was wtte no new major developments in Australia. Then they compromised and dropped that impossible demand. For the past three months it has been no clearing. Another impossible demand. You get the picture.
Had all the Greens senators been Labor senators we would now have a functioning EPA and a fundamental revision of the EPBC Act.
But we do have a Greens BOP and the result is that we have no reforms in the biodiversity space. In effect the Greens have achieved the same outcome that they achieved with Rudd a decade ago.
The Greens are untrustworthy snakes when it comes to negotiating.
There won’t be a constitutional crisis in the USA. It will be simply a dissolving of the constitution by stealth. Clearly rule of law does not matter there any more.
“The removal of peoples from their lands. Is part of the UN’s definition of a genocide.”
Says who? The suffix “-cide” comes from the Latin “caedere” or “to kill”.
Israel is not intending to kill the Gazans. They only ended up causing the death of some civilians because Hamas (whom the Gazan citizens democratically VOTED into power) struck them first. And the land rightfully belonged to Israel anyway. Unlike the vast majority of Palestinians who would like nothing more than have all Jewish people systematically eliminated from existence.
Meh… Greenland, Panama, Canada, Gaza…
…when is it Australia’s turn to get an invasion threat from our ally?
ANZUS is dead.
We need urgently to recognize this and reset our national security and defence arrangements.
The choices are:
1. Muddle along with ANZUS and cross fingers
2. Strongly armed neutrality
3. The Greens’ pissweak Light Mobile Force.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/feb/04/benjamin-netanyahu-donald-trump-israel-gaza-middle-east-ceasefire-latest-live-news
Does Dutton support ethnic cleansing of Gaza, the Golan Heights and the West Bank?
It will excruciatingly embarrassing for Labor if they vote against the Greens gambling ad bill.
Oakeshott Country says:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 11:02 am
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1074 Wednesday, February 5th, 2025 – 10:56 am
The Liberal Party is an 80 year old + marketing scam. Its sole raison d’être is to perpetuate the establishment by opposing Labor: it is the key brigade of the Anti Labor Party.
A ‘grand coalition’ comprising the LNP and Labor?
Magical thinking peddled by the trolling irritants on the board. The latest bullshit du jore.
Is the NSW Right opposed to the establishment? Who knew?
______________
Just Baathist remnants like Andy now. Sad!
Herald Sun 05/02
Rebecca Judd has lashed Jacinta Allan over her call to review Victorian bail laws, accusing the Premier of finally decided to “care” The Brighton crime crusader shared an Instagram story with a screenshot of the Herald Sun’s exclusive report. It included a scathing caption accusing Ms Allan of only acting now her Premier title was in doubt.
When you realise you’re going to lose the election over out-of-control crime you finally decide to ‘care’,” Judd wrote on her story.
_____________________
Bec being humble in victory.
But she has a point. Why the backdown now. People have been telling the govt for years the bail laws needed to be reviewed.
ScromoII would prefer that Palestinians in Gaza cease to exist.
RPsays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 4:43 am
Australia not the only place that is a little warm at the moment.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/04/temperatures-at-north-pole-20c-above-average-and-beyond-ice-melting-point
======================================================
We did start the fire
It started burning, when the coalmines began earning
Entropy
Ice melt that far north in mid winter is quite something…
There is a bit of chat about the circumpolar vortex breaking down.
ScromoIIsays:
Wednesday, February 5, 2025 at 11:14 am
“The removal of peoples from their lands. Is part of the UN’s definition of a genocide.”
Says who?
================================================
Comprehension, isn’t strong in this one.
Whether you agree or disagree with my claim. It is pretty clear who i say has that definition in my sentence. Which would be the UN i refer to in that sentence.
“AI Overview:
Israel’s warfare methods in Gaza ‘consistent with genocide’: UN committee
Yes, the forceful removal of people can be considered genocide if it is part of an intent to destroy a national, racial, religious, or ethnic group. This is known as the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.
Explanation
The UN Convention on Genocide defines genocide as the intentional destruction of a group of people. “
Trump says US will take over GAZA
https://www.axios.com/2025/02/05/trump-gaza-takeover-palestinians-israel
I would expect questions to Labor from the crossbench regarding the future of our alliances with countries that are promoting the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.
As per article linked.
——
We’ll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site, level the site and get rid of the destroyed buildings,” Trump said, adding that his plan would “supply unlimited numbers of jobs and housing for the people of the area.”
I nominate Musk to check for unexploded ordinances in Gaza.
Meidastouch on twitter
——————-
Trump during the election: No new wars!
Trump after inauguration: We’re going to send the U.S. military in to conquer Gaza, Greenland, Canada, Mexico, and the Panama Canal!
JJ Hall
I second the motion.