The campaign for the Western Australian election on March 8 formally commences this week with the issuing of the writs, there are two interesting Victorian state by-elections on Saturday (more on one of them below), and there will shortly be a New South Wales state by-election to contend with in Port Macquarie following retirement announcement from Nationals-turned-Liberal member Leslie Williams. That’s to say nothing of the small matter of a looming federal election, for which April 12 is generally considered the most likely date, particularly after last week’s inflation numbers shortened the odds on an interest rate cut later this month.
Also of note:
• The Financial Review this week had polling data for the 18-to-34 cohort broken down by gender, combined from Freshwater Strategy’s monthly polling in November, December and January. Presumably inspired by the stark divide in voting and ideology that’s opened up between young men and women in the United States, the results find the phenomenon to be relatively subdued here: the big difference was that support for the Greens was at 32% among young women and 20% among young men, with both major parties scoring higher among men (Labor 36%, Coalition 32%) than women (Labor 32%, Coalition 25%). Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group calculates two-party Labor leads of 67-33 among the women and 59-41 among the men. Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 58-27 among the women and 55-37 among the men, but both leaders scored much worse among women than men on net approval.
• 7News has a new election prediction model, in which political science academics Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo were involved. Mansillo was also involved in The Guardian’s tracker, but this one is quite different: whereas The Guardian’s model goes far beyond any poll result in crediting the Coalition with a commanding 53.1-46.9 lead, the 7News model has it at 51-49. Mansillo is quoted saying the mode leans just slightly in favour of Labor forming government because of an inefficiently distributed Coalition swing, leaving them set to run up margins in already safe rural and regional seats.
• Labor’s Stephen Jones announced last week that he will not seek re-election in his Illawarra region seat of Whitlam. Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reports the only known contender for Labor preselection is Keely O’Brien, general manger of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers. However, O’Brien is of the Right and the consensus appears to be that the Right will not formally oppose the national executive ratifying the nominee of Jones’s own Left faction. The report further relates that an informal deal reserves Whitlam to the Left and the state seat of Shoalhaven to the Right, but some consider the Right is owed a seat after Anthony Albanese imposed Ashvini Ambihaipahar of the Left in Barton.
• The South Australian Liberal Party has chosen Leah Blyth, education executive and state party president, to fill the Senate vacancy created by Simon Birmingham’s retirement, replacing a moderate with a conservative. Brad Crouch of The Advertiser reports Blyth won the party ballot with 119 votes to 71 for lawyer Sam Hooper and 11 for Adelaide councillor Henry Davis. As Birmingham was re-elected in 2022, Blyth will not be required to contest the coming election.
• A party vote to disendorse Jacob Vadakkedathu as the Liberals’ Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate over branch stacking allegations was defeated on Saturday. X account Preselection Updates relates the margin was 109 votes to 74.
• Patrick Durkin of the Financial Review (no link available at present) reports Labor polling shows Saturday’s by-election in Werribee “could be as close as 48-52” in favour of the government, suggesting a 9% Liberal swing. However, Liberals “denied the race was that close” and said a 5% swing would be a good result. Chip Le Grand of The Age also cites a Liberal source talking down the party’s chances by citing a “missed opportunity” to win over the local Indian community by preselecting local businessman Rajan Chopra, instead choosing 63-year-old real estate agent Steve Murphy.
US Cartoons:
For those of you wondering, Phil did see his shadow and predicted 6 more weeks of winter.
gollsays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 8:03 am
I want to point out a catagory error here. Australia does noy have a “wealth” inequality problem, or at least, not a problem that isn’t already sorting itself out. Compulsory super is making workers capital holders, and as housing is Australia’s largest asset class it tends to be already more broadly. Hence why measured wealth inequality has been declining over the decade:
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/measuring-what-matters/measuring-what-matters-themes-and-indicators/prosperous/income-and-wealth-inequality#:~:text=For%20households%20in%202019%2D20,for%20which%20data%20was%20available.
Income inequality spiked at the end of thr Morrison, so hard to say what Albo era industrial relations improvements have done. That should be the focus.
He’s also a Trump backer, so I guess that figures.
“Visy chairman Anthony Pratt (pictured below) was the second biggest donor, handing $1m to Labor.”
This never would have happened to Canada if they were part of AUKUS.
Unlike Canada, Australia is a real friend.
It is a huge validation of the wisdom of ScoMo and the Labor Party in committing $300 billion in tribute.
Wong keeps mentioning for a reason that America has a trade surplus with Australia..
The reason for tariffs says Trump is over the past decade an average -PER YEAR -of $800billion USA dollars plus is the amount USA is losing .Global trade deficit.
That is not sustainable
Globalisation will change is changing via Trump why should USA keep going backwards?
By the way me thinks libs are only a couple of seats away now from outright government.A few more months of Albos trend of falling polls will mean not minority but a loss.
Parliament will be hypa next two weeks.
‘Foreign Actors and Criminals Rather than Local Protesters Are Likely Behind Antisemitic Attacks’:
https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/foreign-actors-and-criminals-rather-than-local-protesters-are-likely-behind-antisemitic-attacks/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-6
I do agree with earlwood on China and AUKUS but I reserve the right to call him girly man in perpetuity. He’s taken it badly with a certain machismo defensiveness citing his muscling up to Lars.
Perhaps the admirals costume is not the only outfit in his closet.
ASX down 1.8% in 10 minutes.
The crooked Albanese government has no morals. Won’t even put its own policy to enact an EPA, Environment Protection Australia, to a vote.
A policy that has significant support amongst Labor MPs, Labor members, the general public. Initiated in 2018, an election promise in 2022.
And being Liberal Lite could not introduce it in the first 30 months of the Albanese government. Obviously the failure, Albanese, has no morals when it comes to Labor policy.
You can be sure Labor has lost many 100s of thousands of supporters to the Greens for not prioritising environmental protection.
Copying Liberals Howard, Abbott, Turnbull, Morrisons and now Dutton’s (who is leading and activating policy in Australia today ) policies is the current Labor plan.
Same numbers in Labor do not support AUKUS either. But Dutton does. Hence Labor policy.
How weak is that!
‘Almost 26,000 hectares of threatened species habitat was greenlit for destruction in 2024 – more than double the previous year – according to analysis that environmentalists are using to pressure Anthony Albanese to revive his stalled nature watchdog.
A new Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) report has revealed a huge increase in the scale of habitat approved to be cleared under federal environmental protection laws in the past 12 months.
The ACF’s latest annual “extinction wrapped” report found 25,769 hectares of threatened species habitat is set to be bulldozed as a result of 48 project applications rubber-stamped in 2024.’
Almost 26,000 hectares of threatened species habitat approved for clearing under Labor in 2024, new report finds
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/21/threatened-species-habitat-destruction-labor?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Labor works for the USA, business and wealthy people. They are not our representatives.
Put Labor last. On every ballot paper.
The democracy is under attack from nefarious actors in Australia but we want to democracies in other countries.
On a different note, my facebook feed has been full of AI generated statistical comparisons of former and current male cricketers this summer, which has been quite entertaining. However, on a sad note is to be reminded of the squandered test career of Michael Bevan – who ‘only’ averaged 29 runs in 18 tests with the bat (but did also take 29 wickets at an average of 24 in those test matches as well).
Unfortunately for Bev he ran into Trevor Hones who first dropped him from the NSW team early on for failing to contribute to NSW’s ODI team (ironic given later events) and later on in Bevan’s career Hones type cast him as an ODI specialist and denied him the opportunity to mature as a middle order test batsman. This was a waste of his talent because in First Class cricket he averaged well over 50 with the bat (as he did in all forms of the game outside test cricket). Bev suffered the same fate as Usman Khawaja – perennially ‘in and out’ of the test team in the four years he was actually considered by the selectors and this unable to find his groove. Unlike Usman, there was no late career second chances and he was unlucky to play in an era when incompetent selectors like Hones were blest with an over abundance of talent that papered over their own shortcomings and obsessions. I am sure that if the selectors showed the same degree of faith in Bevan as they did with other players he would have ended up as a 100 test capped player with an average well over 45 (perhaps even over 50); not to mention probably ending with over 150 test wickets as well.
https://www.espncricinfo.com/cricketers/michael-bevan-4144
I do wish that posters would find a more suitable insult for people rather than those that denigrate women. To use being like a female (e.g. girly man) as an insult is much more of an affront to women (and girls) than it is to those being targeted.
“ Perhaps the admirals costume is not the only outfit in his closet.”
No admiral’s costume, but I do confess to owning a copy of Jean-luc Picard’s Captain’s outfit which is one of my ‘go to’ fancy dress party numbers.
If you can’t see what’s going on here then you’re not the sharpest tool in the shed
Senator Cash was out and about this morning pumping up the tyres for Dutton declaring he would be a leader like Trump if elected.
Pretty much saying wtte “ watch what Trump does and Dutton will do the same “
Might come back to bite her and Dutton on the arse.
Why the f**k would labor go early ?
Cheers and a good day to all
There are two groups of Australians.
The divide is paying rent or having a mortgage on one side.
And then there’s the other.
Paying rent at the current levels with have you still paying rent when the superannuation kicks in.
Universal superannuation is and will remain the most successful bit of “average worker” type policy introduced in “federated” Australia.
“Having a mortgage”, paying off a house is only a “must do” decision when you have sustained continuing housing inflation as experienced over the last fifty years.
Obviously housing inflation is discriminatory and favours those on the best side of the ledger.
House prices are having a necessary and long overdue pause.
Interest are up and Labor has acted prudently to put them back in the bottle.
Australia is “taking its medicine” with reluctance and the Dutton LNP is having a field day on problems accentuated by their less than acceptable fiscal and monetary irresponsibility.
The next election is contemporary “tribalism”.
The nation needs to be nurtured through the technology revolution and the LNP don’t do nurturing fairly.
Are the voters susceptible to bullshit, have a look at the polling!
If you don’t agree with the “Tribe” they’ll call you names, and “woke” is the current moniker that fits all!
Jeez, fully agree with Boerwar (7:57). World has changed.
Australia’s largest green hydrogen project has collapsed, with Queensland’s Crisafulli government pulling funding from construction of the $12.5bn plant and pipeline in Gladstone championed by their Labor predecessors.
Treasurer David Janetzki on Sunday confirmed the government would not be investing further in the Central Queensland Hydrogen project, initially touted as being able to produce up to 200 tonnes of liquefied hydrogen by 2028, and four times that by 2031.
Mr Janetzki said the government had rejected a request for “more than $1bn in state government funding” for the project being developed in a consortium led by the state-owned Stanwell Corporation, Queensland’s largest electricity generator, and several Japanese and Singapore-based companies.
The project, which would have exported the majority of its production, was dealt a blow in November when Japanese utility Kansai Electric Power Company withdrew from the consortium citing higher than expected costs.
Kansai would have been one of the main customers of the hydrogen, which former Labor premier Steven Miles declared would help make Gladstone a global hydrogen heavyweight.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/queensland-premier-cans-hydrogen-pipe-dream/news-story/b082008dbb726291badfd0a7e803c62e?amp
EmmaM says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 10:17 am
I do wish that posters would find a more suitable insult for people rather than those that denigrate women. To use being like a female (e.g. girly man) as an insult is much more of an affront to women (and girls) than it is to those being targeted.
_________
Agreed.
Bevan could not cope with the short stuff initially so was replaced by Blewitt who made two centuries in his first two tests.
At the end, Bevan could not cope with Pat Symcox’s straight breaks and was replaced by Lehmann.
Roflmao – Andy and cosplay! What an image !
“ I do agree with earlwood on China and AUKUS but I reserve the right to call him girly man in perpetuity. He’s taken it badly with a certain machismo defensiveness citing his muscling up to Lars.”
I don’t care about the silly slur one way or the other – although C@t would do well to take heed of at least two female contributors who were offended.
What I take badly is the perpetuation of the wrongheaded and dangerous to Australia postings by the likes of meher and C@t on issues such as China-Australia relations and OHFUCKUS. Look, we are all nothing burghers writing on a minor political blog – I get that – but IMO we need to kick back against such nonesense whenever and wherever we can. The stakes are too high to let bullshitfuckery just wash over.
“ Roflmao – Andy and cosplay! What an image !”
More wholesome than your peccadillos, that’s for sure L’twit.
UK Cartoons and other miscellany
Drew
Ella Baron
Patrick Blower
Guy Venables
Chapatte
“If you take the Panama Canal, I will become an American.”
The New Yorker Lila Ash
Stan Kelly
Bloody Hell D&M, Stan Kelly’s “contribution” is a bit 1952 isn’t it?
“ Bevan could not cope with the short stuff initially so was replaced by Blewitt who made two centuries in his first two tests.
At the end, Bevan could not cope with Pat Symcox’s straight breaks and was replaced by Lehmann.”
_____
1. Nor could Steve Waugh at test level … until he could.
Being ‘in and out’ of the test team – often coming in to bat when either there was pressure to make quick runs OR bat conservatively to rebuild after a top order collapse – is no way to form a definitive conclusion that he could not cope with the short stuff (especially when he averaged 57 in shield cricket when – check notes – there was PLENTY of short stuff bowled at him over the course of his first class career).
2. he was probably past his prime by then. … and Lehmann was himself an awesome player who also suffered from being in an era of an oversupply of prodigious batting talent.
I am encouraged by the Guardian article about Canadian’s rection to the US by booing during the US national anthem prior to international sporting matches.
If that fraudster/rapist Trump and the rest of the MAGA loons think that Canada will become a part of the US they are even more deluded than I could ever imagined.
The imposition of tarrifs by the loon in chief, Trump, will impact the outcome of the Canadian election, and very likely have some affect here.
While the gutless Dutton is refusing to tell us what cuts he will make until after he would be King. Another just as important action he is not explaining to us too. We know he plans to cut so called “diversity” jobs too. Yet we have no idea what the full scope of what he defines as a “diversity” job is. Even a half competent MSM should be asking him or the LNP about that. We know Trump promised before the election to cut “diversity”jobs. Yet it wasn’t until he was in we discovered the full extent of what he defined as such. I suspect many in the USA were surprised to discover around 70% of citizens would be defined as that by Trump. As we now know, thanks to the Black Hawk accident, while on a continuity of Government mission for Trump. That even white women are defined in this way by Trump.
So does Dutton have the same definition of a “diversity hire” as Trump? Don’t around 70% of the Australian population have a right to know, if he does. That under a Dutton Government they would be considered second class citizens, less worthy of holding any position than a white male would be.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
No admiral’s costume, but I do confess to owning a copy of Jean-luc Picard’s Captain’s outfit which is one of my ‘go to’ fancy dress party numbers.
___________________
Nice. I got a good Chopper Read costume if needs be. Black leather jacket, sunglasses, handlebar moustache and a couple of plastic guns. Can’t do anything about the tatts and ears unfortunately.
‘Sohar says:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 10:03 am
He’s also a Trump backer, so I guess that figures.
“Visy chairman Anthony Pratt (pictured below) was the second biggest donor, handing $1m to Labor.”’
=====================
Meh. Your usual drive by Labor-bashing snipe.
Excellent to see you picked up on this:
“Cash: Trump a ‘man of action’ and Coalition would have ‘exact same attitude’”
I reckon Andy is the sort of Admiral who would need disciplining for exceeding orders.
How much would Dutton suppress wages this time round? He was pretty good at it the last time round.
”
doyleysays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 10:23 am
Senator Cash was out and about this morning pumping up the tyres for Dutton declaring he would be a leader like Trump if elected.
Pretty much saying wtte “ watch what Trump does and Dutton will do the same “
Might come back to bite her and Dutton on the arse.
Why the f**k would labor go early ?
Cheers and a good day to all
”
Last week one of the posters other admonished posters, who post about Trump.
This (Dutton will behave like Trump)is the reason I post about Trump. I want people to know how Dutton will be if he becomes PM.
The democracy is under attack from nefarious actors in Australia but we want to protect democracies in other countries.
Only British monarch is Australia’s last line of defence if and when Dutton goes rogue.
We know that Trump ordered unprecedented levels of security for his inauguration. Did he keep much of those excessive security details on, in the guise of continuity of Government operations and other such security operation?
Is the airspace over Washington so jammed filled over with his security details. That landing at Washington airport has become a game of Russian Roulette?
If this is the case, will the FAA be able to say so, without Trumps ordering their silence. I certainly doubt any organisation in the USA today is allowed to criticise the God Emperor, without extreme retribution being dealt their way.
“WASHINGTON – Talk about a security bubble. The inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump is unfolding under what U.S. officials describe as layers upon layers of protection in one of the most complex and tightly coordinated security operations in history.”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/01/20/unprecedented-security-trump-inauguration/77836092007/
“ I reckon Andy is the sort of Admiral who would need disciplining for exceeding orders.”
_____
I reckon you’re probably right on this point.
‘Duttless’, Entropy?
“ Nice. I got a good Chopper Read costume if needs be. Black leather jacket, sunglasses, handlebar moustache and a couple of plastic guns. Can’t do anything about the tatts and ears unfortunately.”
Good stuff. I have a Sons of Anarchy outfit too … oh wait, that’s what I wear most days lols
Entropy, I heard that the Blackhawk night security exercises were on behalf of Trump.
Lars Von Triersays:
Monday, February 3, 2025 at 10:56 am
I reckon Andy is the sort of Admiral who would need disciplining for exceeding orders.
=============================================
What ever you say Madam Lars. Andy has obviously been a very bad boy and requires your discipline.
Note: There appears to be one person on here with kinky fetish, It isn’t AE. though.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #87 Monday, February 3rd, 2025 – 11:06 am
But I remember your attire as particularly milquetoast when we met, A_E. After you got off your motorbike. 😉
Entropy @ #89 Monday, February 3rd, 2025 – 11:07 am
You don’t know the half of it, Entropy. 😐
rhwombat at 10:36 am
Bloody Hell D&M, Stan Kelly’s “contribution” is a bit 1952 isn’t it?
——————-
Kelly is the single most incisive political cartoonist of all time
“ But I remember your attire as particularly milquetoast when we met, A_E. After you got off your motorbike. ”
_____
Dressing for the occasion C@t.
If Dud Dutton is going to cut diversity jobs, does that mean Jacinta Price is gone after the election? 😐
“ If Dud Dutton is going to cut diversity jobs, does that mean Jacinta Price is gone after the election? ”
______
Like Stephen in Django Unchained, she’ll still get a run at Dutton’s drinks cabinet after a hard day punching down.
In startling news today.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/kyle-sandilands-to-undergo-immediate-brain-surgery-20250203-p5l90a.html
Who knew he had a brain?
Obviously i hope the surgery goes well for him but i’m no fan of his dumb brand of humour.
In regard to Trumps Xeet (?) stating Canada should become the 51st state of the US, would that count as an actual declaration of war, not a trade war which is already on, but a territorial war? Yes probably tongue in cheek, but still a suggestion a county cedes its sovereignty certainly crosses a diplomatic line
Geoffrey Epstein @ #64 Monday, February 3rd, 2025 – 10:23 am
But which shed? The Putin supporting the White Nazi Supremacists shed? Or the Iran supporting the Muslim agitators and destabilisers shed?
EmmaM @ #62 Monday, February 3rd, 2025 – 10:17 am
Sorry, but I thought the cultural nod to Arnold Schwarzenegger wouldn’t be taken literally, simply figuratively.